BettorsWorld
3* Ravens +6 over Steelers
You've heard the saying, "there's more than one way to skin a cat". Well, there's more than one way to get a number on a football game. We use two primary methods to come up with a number on games. One, is the standard power rating. Power Ratings are adjusted each week to reflect a teams current performance and serve to provide a handicapper with a rough number on the actual point difference between two teams. We have kept our own football numbers for many years, but there are also a ton of other well known and very good ratings published for free on the net. Far too many to name but most do a very good job. The other method we use to get a number is the yards per point figure which you have seen us refer to often. This number can be used in many ways. You can take season to date, last 5 games, home and away, common opponents and so on.
Getting a number is a starting point. There's a saying in sports handicapping, "you need a number to beat a number". You need to take the guesswork out of it. There's always variables to consider, such as, weather, a teams state of mind, home field advantage and so on. But your own number is essential as a starting point. When using these various methods to get a number on this game, the end result is unanimous.........it all comes back Baltimore.
We have mentioned since the end of the regular season that Baltimore was putting up some numbers comparable to past Super Bowl teams, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. So it's no surprise to us that they are here in the AFC title game. Many say they were outplayed by the Titans, that the Titans gave the game away with costly turnovers. That's only partially correct. Turnovers are created. They are created by pressure, by hard hitting, by aggressively getting after the ball. The Titans didn't give the game away. The Ravens went out and did what they do best. The Ravens TOOK the game away. Also worth noting is the fact that the Steelers played the very same Titans in a meaningful game towards seasons end, and came up empty to the tune of 31-14.
As mentioned, we used the methods described above to come up with a number, or numbers on this game. The power ratings, both our own and another well known rating come back with the Steelers by less than a field goal. When we break it down using yards per point using just the last 6 games for both teams, our number is Baltimore by 4. Using yards per point home numbers for the Steelers and away numbers for the Ravens, we come up with pick. Using both teams entire season to date, the yards per point number on the game is also pick. Every method we use, and every time frame we consider, it all comes back Steelers by a field goal or less. Or in the case of yards per point using the last 6 games, a straight up Ravens win.
You can also use the two games these two teams played against each other in making a case for the Ravens. After all, they played an overtime game earlier in the year, and then a game in December in which the Steelers won it on the final drive of the game. The Steelers had to come from behind to win in both games. In the game earlier in the year, it was a fairly even game statistically. The Steelers won the stat battle in the December game, but again, it took a score on the final drive, a controversial one at that, to win it.
It's not rocket science. Defense will be the name of the game this Sunday. Both teams will have trouble moving the ball. The game, like so many others, will be decided by mistakes, penalties, turnovers. The Ravens are on a roll. They have been putting up Super Bowl like numbers for the last half of the year. These teams are very familiar with each other. There's no reason this game, like the two previous, doesn't come down to the 4th quarter, perhaps the last drive, perhaps overtime. When you handicap games, you look for a slight edge when comparing your number with the actual number. We have that here across the board. We will gladly take +6 here in this spot. Presented with this exact same situation 100 times, you will win 55 times or more. That's enough to provide us with a long term profit. We may win, or lose, this particular play, but long term, it's a winner. So, we play. 3* Ravens +6 over Steelers
Vegas Sports Informer
Take First Half: ‘Over’ 23.5 Philadelphia at Arizona
We should see some points in this game and if I'm Arizona you would want to score quick and often in the first half. Arizona gets this game at home were they average 30.2 points per game and I see the fireworks popping early and often in this one.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at Arizona
Pick: UNDER 47
The Eagles, who were left for dead after a 10-3 loss to the Redskins in week 16, have certainly come together at the right time. Brian Westbrook is struggling, however. McNabb has picked up the slack but without a strong running game, it may be hard for this team to put up a lot of points. The good news for the Eagles is that their defense is playing very well. They have not allowed any opponent to score more than 14 points in the last six weeks. The Cards are another team peaking at the right time. They wrapped up their division early with a 7-3 record. They then seemed to lose interest and finished the regular season on a 2-4 run. However, they have won two straight to get the right to host this game. Larry Fitzgerald went off last week against Carolina as the Cardinals put up 33 points. But, don't expect the Eagles to allow that to happen. This defense is especially adept at blitzing and should put pressure on Warner, keeping the Arizona offense from going crazy. This will be the best defense that Arizona has faced in a while. And, Arizona's defense has held two potent offenses to an average of 18.5 ppg the past two weeks. The Eagles are 16-7 UNDER the past two seasons as a favorite. Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 24-12 to the UNDER as a road favorite and 20-10 UNDER vs. teams that average 24+ ppg allowed. I like this game to go UNDER. My computer matchup for this game has the Eagles winning by exactly the pointspread amount (4 points).
Masterbets
Bet on the Eagles/Cardinals UNDER for total points
The number for this game is being bet down by Vegas wiseguys, and we think the money needs to be respected. The line opened at 49.5 points, and some were thinking of taking the Over based on the fact that these two teams combined for 68 points when they met earlier this season. But the line has instead dropped to 47 points.
Our database suggests that 45.5 points is the correct number here and so there is some value in taking a small wager on the Under. The reason is that both teams are playing excellent defense right now. The Cardinals won their game with defense at the Panthers forcing mutliple turnovers. The Eagles have one of the toughest D's in football, with great schemes that could stifle Arizona's passing game. Take the UNDER here.
Dennis Hill
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play:Over 34
Look for this to be an all out war but with more points scored than most people think. Both teams have play more overs than unders this year. Pittsburgh has gone over the total in 11 of their last 13 playoff games, and also have gone over the total in 12 of their last 16 games vs. AFC Teams.
Carlo Campanella
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Over
These teams meet for the 3rd time this season on Sunday, with Pittsburgh winning both of the first two meetings, 23-20 at home and 13-9 in Baltimore. While the Steelers covered the spread in each of first two meetings, the Total split, paying on one "Under" and on the "Over" at Pittsburgh. That "Over" marked the 3rd straight game in this series played in Pitt that has gone "Over" the Total, improving the "Over" to 9-4 (Over-Under) during the last 13 games hosted by the Steelers. WIth the cold and winter-like weather conditions combined with the Ravens stingy defensive play this year, Oddsmakers have posted a very low Total for an NFL Playoff game. Pittsburgh has now gone "Over" in 15 of their last 20 games hosting AFC teams and these Division rivals know each other well to score points on the board in this AFC Championship battle.
7* Play On OVER
Cajun Sports
Kentucky Wildcats -7.5 vs. Georgia Bulldogs
PLAY: 2* Kentucky Wildcats -7.5
Stegeman Coliseum will be the site of todays SEC clash between the host Georgia Bulldogs and the visiting Kentucky Wildcats. Georgia is 9-8 SU and 6-5 ATS on the season while the Kentucky Wildcats are 13-4 SU and 8-3 ATS.
Kentucky is coming off a huge road win over Tennessee on Tuesday night, 90 to 72. In that game Wildcat guard Jodie Meeks had 54 points on 15 of 22 shooting, he was 10 of 15 from behind the arc and a perfect 14 of 14 at the charity stripe. He leads the Cats averaging 25.9 points per game this season. That win and performance has the ability to not only help build momentum but it absolutely builds confidence in these youngsters and should carry over in conference play tonight.
Its possible for teams to be in for a letdown or come out flat after a win over a conference rival but the Wildcats have proven to be a team that responds well in this situation. They are 75-49 ATS in road games after a conference game since 1997 and 56-36 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1997. Kentucky Head Coach Gillespie is 67-40 ATS after a conference game in all games he has coached since 1997 and 14-5 ATS against conference opponents as the coach of Kentucky.
The Wildcats are averaging 80.8 points per game in conference competition this season against teams that allow only 70.6 points per game. Defensively the Cats are allowing 66.0 points per game versus teams that average 73.5 points per game. The Wildcats have a significant advantage on both ends of the floor. They are averaging 50.2 percent from the field, 47.0 percent from behind the arc and 84.4 percent from the charity stripe when playing on the road this season.
The Bulldogs are coming off a road loss at Vanderbilt, 50 to 40 on Wednesday night in Nashville. Georgia is 0-2 in conference play this season averaging 58.5 points per game versus teams that normally allow 66.7 points per game. Georgia is shooting 46 percent from the field and 37.6 percent from the three-point line. The Dawgs have allowed an average of 68.0 points per game almost ten more points per game than they average scoring, knowing that its no surprise they are 0-2 in conference play.
Kentucky has an effective FG percentage of 56.4 which is fifth in the nation while Georgias FG percentage is 47.4 percent which ranks 217th in the nation. The Wildcats defensive effective FG percentage is 42.5 percent which is 9th in the nation and the Bulldogs have a defensive FG percentage of 45.0 which ranks 54th in the nation. Kentucky has the edge in every critical category and should be able to get another conference road win in Athens on Sunday.
On the technical front we know that Kentucky is 14-3 ATS after winning their last three games against the spread and are now installed as a conference favorite. Play On College Basketball Teams after going over in their last game and are now installed as a division road favorite, 40-22 ATS. Play Against CBB Teams after winning ATS and going under in their last game and now face a division foe and are a home underdog, 23-41-2 ATS. Play Against CBB teams after losing SU, winning ATS and going under in their last game if they are now a division home underdog, 6-21-1 ATS.
With strong fundamental, technical and situational support we will back the visitor here as the Wildcats knockoff another conference foe and cash the ticket for us on Sunday.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Kentucky Wildcats 76 Georgia Bulldogs 63
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Oklahoma City
Fatigue can often become an ally when handicapping games, especially in the NBA. For Miami the Heat concludes a draining 7-game (in eleven days) West Coast road swing here this afternoon when they take on the lowly Thunder after visiting Houston last night. One thing is clear for Miami, under first year head coach Erik Spoelstra, they have played to the level of competition going 5-1 ATS against .666 or greater opponents but just 11-20 ATS against sub .666 foes. Hence, they are only 5-11 ATS as favorites this season. While OKC is struggling in the standings, theyve been a solid moneymaker in the spread wars going 22-13-2 ATS as a dog, including 11-6-1 ATS when taking points from Eastern Conference clubs. You know what to do here. Take the points with the Thunder.
SPORTS MEMO
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA +3 O/U 47
Recommendation: Arizona
Situational - Arizona returns home after winning the NFC West and Philadelphia making the playoffs by way of the Wild Card. Fundamentals - Arizona’s stigma of having a soft defense and being one-dimensional on offense hasn’t held true through two postseason games. The Cardinals held Atlanta’s vaunted run game to 65 yards and Carolina to 75. They had just 13 INTs during the regular season but seven over the last two weeks. Overall, this looks like a team that is finally maximizing its talent after coasting through much of the regular season playing in the weak NFC West. Philadelphia shut down the passing games of Minnesota and the Giants. The key looks to be keeping Kurt Warner on his feet. The veteran has been sacked just once in two postseason games and with weather not an issue, we expect Arizona to have success through the air. Game Notes - Arizona is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this season. Both of their home losses ironically came against Minnesota and the NY Giants. Edgerrin James’ top four games in terms of carries resulted in Arizona going 4-0 SU and ATS. Two of those efforts came in the playoffs. When he fails to get 10 carries, the Cardinals are 4-6 SU. Final Take - With a strong home field advantage and catching a field goal -- potentially +3.5 or +4 by game time -- we’ll ignore the home woes for playoff teams and back the Cardinals.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH -6 O/U 33.5
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
Situational - The Ravens will be looking for their third consecutive road win in the playoffs. They will also be searching for their first win in three tries against division rival Pittsburgh. Fundamentals - In four games against Pittsburgh and Tennessee, Joe Flacco completed just 51.8% of his passes. In both playoff games, he continues to struggle, failing to throw a passing touchdown. The story has been the Ravens’ +7 turnover margin in the playoffs. Without those takeaways, Baltimore would have lost to Tennessee and won’t have a shot against Pittsburgh. The Steelers finished the season ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in every key defensive category and we look for another strong effort against a suspect Ravens’ offense. Game Notes - The Ravens may be without three starters on the defensive side as Terrell Suggs (shoulder), Samari Rolle (groin) and Jim Leonhard (concussion) are listed as questionable on the early reports. Final Take - After watching Tennessee and Miami move the ball with relative ease we question whether the Ravens’ defense is truly on par with Pittsburgh. We know the Steelers have proven commodities on the offensive end with Big Ben and Hines Ward. The same cannot be said for Joe Flacco and company. We’ll call for the luck to run out for Baltimore in the turnover category and for Pittsburgh to comfortably move on to the Super Bowl.
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Philadelphia (11-6-1, 12-6 ATS) at Arizona (11-7 SU and ATS)
The Eagles and the Cardinals – two teams that carried the worst regular-season records among the six NFC playoff contestants – meet for the second time this season, this time at University of Phoenix Stadium for a berth in the Super Bowl.
Fourth-seeded Arizona embarrassed No. 2 seed Carolina 33-13 as a 10-point road underdog in the divisional round last week for its third consecutive win and cover, looking nothing like the team that suffered consecutive late-season blowout losses to Minnesota and New England. Veteran QB Kurt Warner (21 of 32, 220 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady enough, and WR Larry Fitzgerald (8 catches, 166 yards, 1 TD) was unstoppable, despite sidekick Anquan Boldin (hamstring) sitting out. Boldin is expected back this week.
Despite the 33-point effort, the key for Arizona last week was the defense, which forced Panthers QB Jake Delhomme into six turnovers (5 INTs, 1 lost fumble), leading to 23 points. The Cards held Carolina to just 269 total yards, while gaining 360, and they rolled up a nearly 20-minute edge in time of possession (39:49-20:11).
One week after going to Minnesota and eliminating the Vikings, sixth-seeded Philadelphia knocked off the top-seeded Giants 23-11 as a four-point pup to move to 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games, including two road wins over the defending Super Bowl champions. QB Donovan McNabb (22 of 40, 217 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) was a bit shaky, but he ran for one TD and led three second-half scoring drives, including a 10-play, 63-yard effort capped by a 1-yard TD pass to Brent Celek to give the Eagles a two-score lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Although Philly was outgained 307-276, the defense came up huge, picking off Eli Manning twice among three forced turnovers and stopping the Giants on fourth-and-short on back-to-back fourth-quarter possessions to help seal the deal.
Philadelphia is on a 7-2 ATS roll (5-4 SU) in this rivalry, including a 48-20 home whipping as a three-point home chalk on Thanksgiving night earlier this season. In addition, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes.
During its three-game SU and ATS winning streak that dates back to the regular-season finale against Seattle, Arizona is averaging 32.3 points and 391.3 total yards per game, while giving up 19.3 points and 283 yards per contest. In the regular season, Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs (third), against 14 INTs. Fitzgerald led the NFC in catches (96, 4th overall) and yards (1,431, 2nd overall), and he tied Detroit’s Calvin Johnson for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 12.
Arizona’s defense has been solid in playoff wins over Atlanta and Carolina, allowing just 18.5 ppg and 259.5 ypg. Those numbers are far better than in the regular season, when the Cards ranked a lowly 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and 19th in yards allowed (331.5 total ypg). Arizona, which finished even in turnover differential in the regular season, is a stunning plus-7 through two playoff games.
Philly has scored at least 20 points in each of its six wins during its current 6-1 run. In the regular season, it had the league’s sixth-best scoring offense (26 ppg) and was ninth in total offense (350.5 ypg), paced by the sixth-rated passing attack (244.4 ypg). McNabb completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 3,916 yards and 23 TDs, against 11 INTs. Also, Brian Westbrook, despite being dinged up a few times during the season, rushed for 936 yards (4.0 ypc) and nine TDs, and he had 54 catches for another 402 yards and five scores.
Philadelphia has continued its yearlong strong defensive play in postseason wins at Minnesota and New York, allowing a stifling 12.5 points and 304 total yards per game. Since defeating Arizona, the Eagles’ D has held six consecutive opponents to 14 points or less, giving up an average of 10.8 ppg during this stretch. Philly is at plus-1 in turnover differential for the playoffs, after finishing plus-3 in the regular season.
The Eagles are on numerous ATS hot streaks, including 12-4 on the highway, 6-1 in the playoffs, 5-0 in road playoff games, 5-0 against winning teams, 5-0 on grass., 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 laying points and 5-2 in January. Philly has also gone 8-3 ATS this year in its 11 games against non-division foes. The Cardinals are on pointspread upticks of 5-0 in January, 4-1 on grass, 7-3 at home and 11-5 against winning teams, but they are on a 3-7 ATS slide as an underdog.
Since 1990, home teams have gone just 16-19-1 ATS in the conference championship round, including 0-2 ATS last year, the first time that’s happened since 2001. Since 1983, only four home teams have been underdogs in this round, and they’ve gone 1-2-1 ATS. Also, in conference finals since 1983, the NFC East is 10-4 ATS (4-2 ATS against the NFC West) and the NFC West is 6-8 ATS.
The under for Philadelphia is on tears of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-1-1 in the playoffs, 5-0-1 as a playoff chalk, 41-16-5 as a favorite and 19-7-1 as a road favorite. However, the over is 23-11-1 in Philly’s last 35 games against winning teams, and the over for Arizona is on streaks of 36-17 overall, 37-14 with the Cards a ‘dog, 5-1 with the Cards a home pup, 16-5 against winning teams and 19-7 at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in seven of the last nine clashes overall, and the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Arizona. This year’s 48-20 contest in Philly easily cleared the 48½-point posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Baltimore (13-5, 14-4 ATS) at Pittsburgh (13-4, 10-7 ATS)
The red-hot Ravens, the AFC’s No. 6 seed, travel to Heinz Field for their third clash of the season against the Steelers, who hope to make it 3-0 against their NFC North rivals and return to the Super Bowl for the seventh time in franchise history.
Baltimore edged Tennessee 13-10 as a three-point road pup last week for its fourth straight win and cover, and the Ravens are now 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games. Baltimore was completely outplayed in almost every category, giving up 391 total yards while gaining just 211 and losing the time-of-possession battle by more than eight minutes (34:07-25:53). But the game was won on turnovers, as the Ravens didn’t commit any while forcing one INT and two fumbles. All three of those turnovers came with the Titans in Ravens territory, including one at the 22-yard line and one inside the 5-yard line.
Rookie QB Joe Flacco (11 of 22, 161 yards, 1 TD) was mediocre against Tennessee, and the ground game netted just 50 yards, almost 100 below its regular-season average (148.5).
Second-seeded Pittsburgh pulled away from San Diego in the second half last Sunday for a 35-24 victory as a 6½-point favorite, winning and cashing for the second straight outing and moving to 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in its last eight games. QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 26, 181 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) played mistake-free football and was aided greatly by RB Willie Parker’s huge game (27 carries, 146 yards, 2 TDs) as the Steelers ran for 165 yards, while holding the Chargers to a measly 15 yards on the ground. Pittsburgh finished with a 342-290 edge in total yards.
As with Baltimore, turnovers were a key in Pittsburgh’s divisional-round victory, as the Steelers had a 2-0 edge. One of those was an INT that came on the Chargers’ only play of the third quarter, as the Steelers held the ball for all but 17 seconds of that period.
Baltimore is 6-2 ATS (4-4 SU) in the last eight clashes in this heated rivalry, including 1-1 ATS (0-2 SU) this season. In September, Pittsburgh won 23-20 in overtime at home, but the Ravens cashed getting six points. Last month, the Steelers eked out a 13-9 road victory with a late controversial TD to win and cash as a three-point pup. In fact, the underdog has covered in four of the last five meetings.
The Ravens’ offense has produced three TDs in its two playoff wins over the Titans and Dolphins, with the defense also contributing a score and kicker Matt Stover has hit four field goals. In the regular season, Baltimore averaged 24.1 ppg (11th) and 324 ypg (18th), but the Ravens had the AFC’s No. 1 ground attack at 148.5 ypg (4th overall), with Le’Ron McClain (902 yards, 10 TDs) and Willis McGahee (671 yards, 7 TDs) combining for 1,573 yards. Flacco wasn’t afraid to tuck the ball and run, as well, with 52 attempts for 152 yards and two TDs, and the rookie completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,971 yards and 14 TDs, though he had 12 INTs.
Baltimore’s defense hasn’t skipped a beat in the playoffs, allowing a postseason-leading 9.5 ppg in victories over Miami and Tennessee, but the Ravens are giving up 333.5 ypg. In the regular season, Baltimore ranked second in yards allowed – a stingy 261.1 per game – and third in scoring (15.2 ppg). The Ravens have a plus-7 turnover differential in their two playoff games, putting them at a sterling plus-20 for the season. Safety Ed Reed has led the way with 11 INTs.
Pittsburgh’s offense produced its second-highest point total of the season in last week’s win over the Chargers. In the regular season, the Steelers were in the back half of the league in every offensive statistic, with per-game averages of 21.7 points (20th), 311.9 total yards (22nd), 105.6 rushing yards (23rd) and 206.3 passing yards (17th). Roethlisberger was the NFL’s 24th-rated QB, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,301 yards, offsetting 17 TD throws with 15 INTs. Parker, limited to 11 games beause of injury but now regaining his form, rushed for 791 yards (3.8 ypc) and five TDs, and WR Hines Ward (81 catches, 1,043 yards, 7 TDs) tied for 14th in receptions and was 15th in receiving yards.
With such a lackluster offense, the Steelers needed a stellar defense to get to this point, and they had it in the league’s No. 1-ranked unit in points allowed (a meager 13.9 per game), total yards (237.2 per game) and passing yards (156.9), along with the second-best run-stopping squad (80.2 ypg). Despite those impressive numbers, Pittsburgh finished just plus-4 in turnover differential in the regular season, but the Steelers improved to plus-6 on the year following the win over San Diego. The 24 points given up last week tied for the second-most allowed this season.
The Ravens are on a bundle of ATS rolls, including 4-0 on the road, 6-1 in AFC North contests, 5-1 as a favorite, 8-1 against the AFC, 7-3 in the playoffs, 6-1 in road playoff games, 16-5 on grass and 10-2 after a SU win. However, they also carry negative ATS trends of 4-11 as a ‘dog of 3½-10 points and 3-10 as a road pup at that same price, and prior to their two spread-covers in the playoffs, the Ravens were in an 0-5 ATS rut in January games.
In addition, the SU winner is 27-2 ATS in Baltimore’s last 29 outings, including 17-1 ATS this season.
The Steelers have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five AFC title games, but they are otherwise on a plethora of pointspread streaks, including 6-0 in playoff games, 23-8 as a home chalk of 3½-10 points, 4-0 as a home chalk of any price, 4-0 versus division foes, 5-0 in January and 5-1 against winning teams.
Since 1983, home favorites have gone 26-18 ATS in the conference championship round.
The under for Baltimore is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in the playoffs, 5-1-1 against winning teams, 4-1-1 in January and 4-1 with the Ravens a postseason pup. But the over for the Ravens is on runs of 4-1 against the AFC North, 5-2-1 on the road and 4-1-1 with the Ravens a road ‘dog, and the over for Pittsburgh is on tears of 38-16-2 at home, 4-0 in AFC title games, 11-2 in the playoffs, 8-1 in home postseason tilts, 6-1 with the Steelers a playoff chalk and 16-5 in January.
Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five clashes – with last month’s contest in Baltimore the exception – and the over has been the play in the last four meetings in Pittsburgh.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
St. John’s (10-6, 4-5-1 ATS) at (23) Villanova (13-3, 5-7 ATS)
Villanova returns to the court for the first time since suffering a heartbreaking loss to Louisville eight days ago, as it hosts slumping St. John’s at The Pavilion.
The Wildcats nearly overcame an eight-point halftime deficit last Saturday against Louisville, coming up just short in a 61-60 loss as a two-point home favorite. Villanova is off to a 1-2 start in Big East play, failing to cash in any of the three contests. This mini-slump comes on the heels of a four-game winning streak to close out the non-conference season.
St. John’s followed up a surprising 71-65 upset home win over Notre Dame with back-to-back double-digit Big East losses to Pitt (90-67 as a 20-point road underdog) and UConn (67-55 as a 12½-point home pup). The Red Storm are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six outings, and they’ve lost their two Big East road games (Pitt and Providence) by a combined 44 points.
Villanova is on a 4-0 roll (2-2 ATS) in this rivalry, including last year’s 60-42 rout as a three-point road chalk. Three of the Wildcats’ four victories during their winning streak against St. John’s have been double-digit blowouts.
At home this season, the Wildcats average 74 points per game on 45.3 percent shooting while allowing a scant 58.5 ppg on 38 percent shooting. On the other hand, St. John’s has been outscored by an average of 18 ppg (82-64) when it hits the highway, shooting just 42.3 percent while letting the opposition make 49.2 percent of its field goals.
St. John’s is on ATS runs of 6-2 in Big East play, 8-3 after a double-digit home loss and 5-2 after a SU defeat, but it is also on pointspread slumps of 2-5 on the road, 2-5 against winning teams and 1-4 on Sunday. Meanwhile, Villanova carries nothing but negative ATS trends into this contest, including 2-5 overall, 2-5 at home, 0-4 in Big East play, 3-10 after a SU loss and 6-14 after a non-cover.
For the Red Storm, the under is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 8-2 on the road, 13-3 in league play and 4-0 after a SU loss. Also, Villanova is on under streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 24-9 at home, 10-4 in Big East action, 6-1 after a SU loss and 17-5-1 after a non-cover. Conversely, the over is 16-5 in St. John’s last 21 games on Sunday and 13-6-1 in the Wildcats’ last 20 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Wild Bill
Philadelphia Eagles -3 (5 units)
Steelers -5 (5 units)
Cards-Eagles Over 48 (5 units)
Steelers-Ravens Over 33 (5 units)
7 pt teaser: Eagles +4, Steelers +2, Over 41 Eagles-Cards (5 units)
Mr A
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
The Eagles are at the top of its game. McNabb is playing sound, safety Brian Dawkins and the defense are at the top of their game. If Eagles' running back Brian Westbrook has a good day, Arizona’s season surely comes to an end. Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games and is 5-2 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 7 meetings versus Arizona.
Philadelphia Eagles -4
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
This should be a great game between two potent defenses. But the Steelers have the edge with a superior offense and home field advantage. Then again, the Steelers had a tough battle beating the Ravens in the last two games, 23-20 overtime win in Pittsburgh and a 13-9 win at home. Besides, the Ravens went 5-3 on the road this season and won two playoff road games. This is going to be a close fight that could be decided in the closing minutes. Take the Ravens. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Baltimore Ravens +6
Johnny Guild
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Now here are two really close teams and yes!, this will be a close game for sure. Even with the stats which are almost dead even is proving this idea. So the smart bet is with the team with the points being given plus who know they are the underdogs and have more to lose, which would be the Cardinals. The Eagles and the Cardinals will meet at the University of Phoenix Stadium on Sunday for tis Confernece Championship game. Like the last game look for Arizona to try to get their defense to intercept the Eagles passing game which I know that the eagles are looking out for that mistake the panthers made. Although the Eagles defense killed the Giants offense last game that probably would of been the sam tactics that Arizona would have done as well. Also keep in mind that the winner of this Sunday's NFC Championship game will become the first team with nine or fewer regular season wins to reach the Super Bowl since the 1979 Los Angeles Rams, who were 9-7 for the season. Good Luck Arizona... You deserve it!
Prediction: Arizona +4
ARIZONA +4
PITTSBURGH -5.5
JIM FEIST
PHOENIX SUNS at TORONTO RAPTORS
TAKE: PHOENIX SUNS
Reason: Toronto isn't doing anything right on defense, on a 4-game skid while allowing over 100 points in 3 straight. You can't play soft 'D' against this umptempo Phoenix team led by Steve Nash. Despite a home loss to Minnesota, Shaquille O'Neal and Leandro Barbosa each scored 22 and Amare Stoudemire added 19 for the Suns, who lost for just the third time in their last 11 home gamesand 6 of 9 overall. O'Neal has 15 or more points in his last 13 games, his longest such streak in almost four years. Nash and Shaq will tear up this soft Toronto 'D'. Play the Suns!
Dave Cokin
Missouri State @ Illinois State
Play: Missouri State -12'
I don't anticipate much difficulty for Illinois State in this spot. The Redbirds can use a blowout win and the Bears would seem to be the perfect fodder for exactly that. Missouri State is living down to billing as likely MVC cellar dwellers this season and they're generally a very bad road team. I'll back Illinois State to win this one big