Jeff Benton
I’m on an incredible 9-3 run with NBA freebies dating to last season, and on an overall comp play run of 42-21 heading into today's selection on the Oklahoma City Thunder at home versus Miami.
At 8-33, the Thunder continue to have the worst record in the NBA, but despite that dismal record, they’ve played with effort all season, and they’re finally reaping the rewards for their hard work. Oklahoma City has posted back-to-back double-digit home wins over playoff-caliber opponents Utah (114-93) and Detroit (89-79) – its first two-game winning streak of the season. In fact, five of the team’s eight wins have come since Dec. 31, a stretch of nine games.
What’s more, the Thunder have cashed in five straight games overall, nine of their last 10, 13 of their last 15 and 15 of their last 18. And if you go back to Nov. 22, Oklahoma City is 22-6 ATS, all as an underdog! That includes an ongoing 9-0 ATS run at home and 11-1 ATS streak against Eastern Conference opponents.
Tonight, the Thunder and budding superstar Kevin Durant (26.8 ppg last five games) catch Miami in the perfect spot. The Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back after last night’s game at Houston, and they’re just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight back-to-back situations. Not only that, but this contest wraps up Miami’s grueling seven-game, 11-day road trip. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Heat completely run out of gas tonight – or simply just flat mail this one in, especially with a much-needed two days off looming before Wednesday’s home game against Boston.
When these teams met in Miami back on Dec. 6, the Thunder gave the Heat all they could handle in a 105-99 loss, cashing as an 11-point underdog as rookie point guard Russell Westbrook scored a team-high 30 points and led four Oklahoma City players in double figures, which offset Dwyane Wade’s 38-point night.
Throw in the fact that the Thunder come into this game playing much better defense (allowing 94.2 ppg on 43.4 percent shooting overall and 26.8 percent on three-pointers in the last five games) than the Heat (105.2 ppg allowed on 46 percent shooting, including 40.6 percent three-pointers), and my money’s on Durant, Westbrook and an improving home team.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Scott Delaney
We're going to stick the comp plays on the hardwood on Championship Sunday, and we'll roll with Purdue over Iowa.
There are always good things to talk about in the Big 10 - whether it's Wisconsin's swing, Michigan's prowess, Michigan State's press and this year, Minnesota's ascension - but pardon Purdue if it plans on boiling over on everyone's party.
But the 'Makers are real deal at 13-4, and riding into this early Sunday contest with Iowa off two straight Big 10 wins to even their conference record at 2-2. Purdue beat Wisconsin by 13 in West Lafayette and Northwestern in a two-point squeaker in Chicago.
So with momentum and a three-game win streak in this series in our favor, not to mention the fact Iowa has lost three of four to start conference play and three straight to the books, I don't see any other way to go then to lay this chalk.
Besides, the Hawkeyes are limping into this one, and that can't be good with an already stagnant offense. This is a team that is so dinged up it couldn't prepare properly for this road contest, and took its bye week off from practice this past Wednesday, a normal Big 10 night.
Fact is, sans an inside game, the Hawkeyes have been passive on offense, and have been subjected to working deep into the shot clock and have been forcing their shots and committing costly turnovers.
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the Eagles in Arizona.
Ken Whisenhunt's Cardinals are very very dangerous in the desert and will come to play for sure here as a win gets them shockingly into the Super Bowl. But when all is said and done I still can't pass up making a small play on the superior boys from Philly.
Larry Fitzgerald is a beast and Kurt Warner certainly knows how to get him and Anquan Boldin the ball but I still do not see these Cards as a complete team or a squad that is nearly as good as they looked in that unreal whacking of Carolina. The stars aligned for Arizona on that night and everything seemed to go their way. But that was then and this is now.
Andy Reid's defense is absolutely stifling right now. This team has been in a playoff mode for months now and even if stud running back Brian Westbrook is a little banged up I just do not see Donovan McNabb and the fellas not being able to win this game as they are just too superior and I'll therefore take my chances laying this field goal plus a little.
The Cards are rolling right now and confident after smacking the Panthers but their upside is still not as high as the Eagles and despite the dreaded road chalk I can't help but back the visitors in this spot.
More than likely we are looking at a competitive contest but the Eagles defense is much better than the Cards and in the end that will prove to be too much in a 10 point win!
Jake Timlin
Your Sunday selection is the Arizona Cardinals.
While most of the world is not giving the Cardinals a chance today I am as I see Arizona pulling off a huge upset and advancing to the Super Bowl. First off before you can believe in the Cardinals you must discount their 28 point loss in Philadelphia this season as Arizona playing on a short week and on a holiday they had little to no chance at winning anyways. Well now that Arizona is hosting today’s games their chances improve big time as the Cardinals are tough at home winning 12 of their last 17 games in the desert thanks to an offense that has scored 30 plus in 9 games this season, including both playoffs games. But really what is going to give the Cardinals a shot at the win today will be their much improved defense that has head both Atlanta and Carolina in check to reach today’s NFC Championship game. Meanwhile, Philadelphia while deserving team asking them to win three straight road games is a tall order considering they are just 5-4-1 straight up this season on the road. Flat out, while everyone is thinking the Eagles are going to have an easy time in the desert I feel the Cardinals are going to shock the nations. Play here is the Cardinals plus the points!
All Arizona!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
We come through once again last night as the Orlando Magic deliver easily on the road at the Denver Nuggets. We're now on a 4-0 Comp Play win streak and have gone 6-1 with our last seven Freebies!
We’re continuing the winning, but switching gears today as we’re headed out to Arizona where we’re taking the Over in the Eagles-Cardinals NFC Championship matchup.
The number for this game is hovering between 47 and 49 points, depending on where you go. Obviously that’s subject to change, but that won’t matter because these two will blow right past that.
Consider first that the Over is 12-6 for the Cardinals up to this point in the season and has seen the Over go 6-2 their last eight games. In that eight-game stretch Arizona has totaled, on average, 54.5 points per game.
The Cardinals have also seen the Over go 8-1 at home this season as they’ve totaled, on average, 52.6 points per game. Arizona has also seen the Over go 36-17 its last 53 games and 37-14 its last 51 as an underdog. The Over is also 19-7 the Cardinals’ last 26 games at home and is 5-1 when Arizona is installed as an underdog in front of the home fans.
For the Eagles, the Over is 23-11-1 their last 35 games against teams with winning records.
Also, in their last nine meetings, the Over has gone 7-2 and has come in each of their last three matchups, including their earlier meeting in Philly where the teams combined for 68 points with the Total set at 48 1/2 points.
These two will put up the points and roll past the Total. Take the Over easily in this one today.
3♦ EAGLES-CARDINALS OVER
Chris Jordan
Philadelphia -4 at ARIZONA
Philadelphia will not score 48 again against Arizona. That as a crazy Thanksgiving night, when the Cardinals played on a short week, after getting throttled by the defending-champion Giants.
It's still relatively warm in Glendale, Arizona in mid-November ... compared to Philly ... so the nationally televised, ad-campaign, money-making Thursday Night special was nothing the Cardinals wanted a part of.
But the NFL dictates, and the result was a 48-20 blowout win by the Eagles.
On Sunday, the Eagles won't be traveling downfield as much, and to be honest, I think this will be a possession-conscious game that will see both teams control the clock and ballhog to keep the opposing offense off the field.
To get this far, you have to be playing well defensively, and I'd have to say watching the Cardinals limit the Panthers to 13 points, they're doing just fine with the stop unit.
Besides, Philadelphia is controlling the ball with the running, and short-yardage plays that find Donovan McNabb looking to short-arm the ball, rather than find his receivers downfield all the time. Overall, this team is doing a great job of moving the chains, but with a ball-control offense.
It's because of this that I believe Arizona will slow things down, because if it runs into trouble by firing the ball up all the time, it's going to find itself wondering when it'll get back on offense.
Time management will be key in this one, as the Cardinals and Eagles play much more conservative than people think.
2♦ UNDER
Karl Garrett
Philadelphia at ARIZONA
Playoff total for you today, as I like the Eagles-Cardinals to make their way OVER the posted price.
True, both of Philadelphia's playoff games thus far have landed UNDER, but the Eagles did rack up 45-points in their regular season meeting with Arizona, and this game is being played on a perfect field which should yield some decent yardage, and most importantly, points!
Arizona's game last week at Carolina did land LOW, but don't blame the Cardinals, as they scored 33-points in their dog outright win.
The Cards are on a 4-1 OVER run their last 5, and 6 of their last 8 have also landed HIGH, that includes their Thanksgiving visit to the City of Brotherly Love.
Have to look for the OVER in this NFC Championship Game.
It may not be a crazy 42-39 shootout, but there is enough offense on the field today to clear this impost.
G-Man playing the OVER.
4♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Baltimore at PITTSBURGH
Swept the FREE board on Saturday as Wake Forest came in with ease on the college hardwood and then the Hornets delivered on the NBA hardwood with a winner over the Pistons. Today we'll hit our NFL comp play as we go with the over in the Ravens-Steelers matchup from Pittsburgh.
All the talk is about the two defenses taking the field today, and it should be as both units are dominating groups that can make life miserable for the opposition. But also remember these two defensive units have been known to force turnovers and either score themselves or set their offense up with an insanely short field. And with the total today being so unbelievably low, we've got to go with the over in this one.
Expect the defense to either score or set up short TDs twice in this game. So that reduces the number to three touchdowns we need from the offense. And that is very attainable. The Steelers have already proven they can drive down the field against Baltimore, as they did it in the final drive of their regular season win in Baltimore.
The first time these two met in Pittsburgh, the Steelers got a 23-20 OT victory. Last month the Steelers went to Baltimore and got a 13-9 win.
We're looking for the Steelers' Willie Parker to ignite the running game against Baltimore. We all saw last week that Tennessee RB Chris Johnson was dominating the game and would have let them to victory had he not gotten injured.
And look at some trends, as Baltimore is on over runs of 4-1 against the AFC North, 5-2-1 on the road and 4-1-1 with them as a road 'dog. For the Steelers, the over is on tears of 38-16-2 at home, 4-0 in AFC title games, 11-2 in the playoffs, 8-1 in home playoff games, 6-1 with them as a postseason favorite and 16-5 in all January contests.
Look for some points to be scored today. Play the over.
3♦ OVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Kentucky -7 at GEORGIA
We knew it wouldn't be long before Billy Gillispie started to make his mark in Lexington, and after Tuesday's "signature" win in Knoxville in a game Jodie Meeks netted a school record 54-points, we look for the Wildcats to continue their winning ways against a Georgia team that is reeling.
The Dawgs have lost 4 straight, and were held to just 40-points in their loss at Vanderbilt earlier this week.
Kentucky is seeking major revenge, as Georgia dumped them in overtime in the SEC Tournament last March to deny the 'Cats a Big Dance ticket, while punching their own.
A lot has changed since that loss, and while this would seem to be a perfect "let down" spot for UK, we don't think UGA is good enough to deliver on any perceived let down.
We are laying it on the road with Kentucky.
Play on the Wildcats.
3♦ KENTUCKY
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Seton Hall +19
Seton Hall has played UConn very tough over the last two seasons. The Pirates lost by 12 on the road in February of 2007, in a game that was closer than the final score indicates, and they played UConn to a 12-point again last season. The Pirates enter this contest having lost 4 straight, giving them all the motivation in the world to give the Huskies their best shot again. Plays on a road team (SETON HALL) - after allowing 85 points or more 3 straight games are a remarkable 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Seton Hall picks it up on the defensive end and keeps this one within the number. Take the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Purdue -13.5
The Boilermakers should be 1-3 in the Big Ten, but they escaped with a win at Northwestern 3 days ago. They are back at home today and I expect Purdue to play a lot better against an offensively challenged Iowa team. While Iowa will be competitive at home in Big Ten play, the road figures to give the young Hawkeyes plenty of bumps and bruises. They lost by 15 to Michigan on the road in their last Big Ten contest. Purdue is 15-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Another key here is that Iowa has not play in a week and this situation has meant rust for the Hawks. Iowa is 10-28 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997. Take Purdue.
Razor Sharp Sports
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Tom Brady and the Patriots, Peyton Manning and the Colts, LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers, or even Brett Favre and the Jets, I would have bet that I would have been talking about them taking on the Steelers way before Joe Flacco and the Ravens. But here we are on Championship Sunday and it is the Ravens that will be traveling to Heinz Field to take on Big Ben abd company. Even without those first couple teams I mentions, to a football purist, this could be a classic match-up. The game will be as hard hitting and bone rattling as the Steel town itself. You know the weather will be cold and the pads make that extra crack when the temps get low. Now when you have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Troy Palamalu and James Harrison making those hits and the faint of heart may want to turn away. This Sunday’s match-up between the Ravens and the Steelers could and should be a classic. Lets take a look at both teams.
We will start with the Wildcard Ravens. Baltimore has gotten into the AFC Title game with two road wins. First they handled Miami 23-9 and then last week, they bent, but didn’t break and took advantage of Titan errors (and one by the referee) to get past Tennessee 13-10. The similarities between this team and the 2000-2001 Super Bowl Champion Ravens are all over the place. Both teams are anchored by one of the best defenses in the league with Ray Lewis right in the center. They both were Wild Card teams heading into the playoffs. They both knocked off the #1 seeded Tennessee Titans on the road in their second contest. They both had questions at Quarterback during the season. Finally, the Super Bowl was held in Tampa Bay. Once again this year the defense has Ray Lewis leading the way. He has a team leading 117 tackles, 3.5 sacks and 3 interceptions. To go with Lewis there is Safety Ed Reed, who let the NFL regular season in interceptions with 9 and has added 2 more in the playoffs. Around Lewis and Reed, there is plenty of talent. Names like Samari Rolle, Terrell Suggs, Bart Scott, Hiloti Ngata and others fly all over the field to disrupt their opponents offenses and turning the ball over. In the regular season, they lead the NFL with 34 takeaways and have added 8 more in their 2 playoff contests. Offensively, it isn’t pretty, but like the 2000 team, it is very workmanlike. Rookie QB Joe Flacco, who was forced into the starting roll after pre-season injuries, started slow, but gets better every week. At the beginning of the season he had just 1 TD pass and 7 interceptions. Since then, Flacco has 13 TDs and 5 interceptions in the regular season and added 1 more touchdown pass in the playoffs with no interceptions in 45 passes in their 2 playoff games. Flacco’s #1 target is Derrick Mason, his #2 target is Derrick Mason and his third option is you guessed it Derrick Mason. The veteran Mason lead the team with with 80 catches for 1037 yards and 5 TDs. That was about a third of all of Flacco’s numbers. If for some reason Mason still wasn’t open, Flacco did mention to find Mark Clayton and Todd Heap a few times. Clayton had 41 catches for 695 and Heap had 35 for 405. The ground attack has been real interesting. Willis McGahee looked to be the big back at the beginning of the season, but injuries forced the Ravens to turn to an even bigger back. FB turned RB Le’Ron McClain carried the ball and is 6′ 260 lb frame for 920 yeards and 10 TDs in the regular season. In the post-season, McClain and McGahee have split the rushing duties.
With all this talk of the Ravens, don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten about the Steelers. You want to talk about defense, then at the top of the heap, you would find the Pittsburgh Steelers. Take a look at the final NFL regular season stats. The Steelers lead the league in Points Allowed, total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and were second in rushing yards allowed and sacks. Last week they shut down San Diego. They allowed just 15 rushing yards and a total of 290 yards. Don’t forget 62 of them came late in the pretty much meaningless Sproles screen play. LB James Harrison won the Defensive Player of the Year with 101 tackles, 16 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and an interception. Fellow LB James Farrior lead the team in tackles with 133. Safety Troy Palamalu added 73 tackles to go along with 7 interceptions. LaMarr Woodley also added 11.5 sacks. The offense is still centered around QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben showed no signs of the concussion that knocked him out of the regular season finale last week. He methodically moved the Steelers up and down the field last week. RB Willie Parker looked like he was finally healthy also as he ran for a season high 146 yards and added 2 TDs. Roethlisberger has plenty of weapons to through to when he isn’t handing off to Parker. Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes make up a very dangerous 1-2 combo and Nate Washington and TE Heath Miller gives him even more options.
They say that it is tough for a team to beat another team 3 times on one season, but that is what the Steelers will have to do to get the the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh has beaten Baltimore twice already this year with a 23-20 home win back in week 4 and then a 13-9 victory at Baltimore in week 15. Looking at the way both of these two teams have been playing defense and knowing that the weather is going to be cold as always in Pittsburgh in January, I have to look for another low scoring contest at least early in this game. These teams will want to feel each other out and trade punched. The second have the game may dictate the kind of play we see and if one of these teams are forced to open up their offense, that could cause turnovers and possible defensive scores. I think the best play here is to just play the UNDER in the first half. Take Baltimore and Pittsburgh UNDER the total of 17 in the first half of the game.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
PITTSBURGH -6 over Baltimore
Joe Flacco has been magical this year for the Ravens, but juts like the Cardinals below, his time is up. Yjis Pittsburgh defense is playing superb right now and they should be able to harass Flacco into the mistakes that Miami and Tennessee?s defenses weren?t able to do. During the two regular season games the Ravens were able to put up just 14.5 ppg vs. this Steelers defense. Pittsburgh also allowed Flacco to hit just 45.7% off his passes and throw for just 230 total yards in the 2 games, while sacking him 7 times and picking off 2 passes. The Ravens defense is ranked 2nd overall and 3rd in scoring, but could have their hands full vs. a hot Pittsburgh Offense that has put up 26.7 ppg in their last 3 games. This is the 18th straight game for the Ravens and they are beat up and tired, especially after last weeks physical game vs. the Titans, so I don?t think this team will be able to hang for the 4 full quarters vs. this physical Steelers squad. The Steelers have outscored foes by 8.9 ppg at home and I see them winning by at least that in this one.
3 Team 10 point Teaser--- Pittsburgh +4, Pittsburgh/ Baltimore Over 24 & Philly/ Arizona Over 37
2 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh/ Baltimore Over 34
Yes I think the Steelers will create problems for Flacco, but I still see him being able to put some points on the board. The Ravens come in having put 25.4 ppg in their last 8 games, with those games averaging 35.8 ppg. Baltimore road games have averaged 42.8 ppg this year, including a 43 point game the last time thee teams met here. Steeler home games have averaged39.7 ppg, while their last 3 overall have averaged 45 ppg. The Over is 6-1-1 in Ravens last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 4-1 in their last 5 vs. AFC North, while the Over is 15-5 when Pittsburgh is home vs. an AFC team and 11-2 in their last 13 home playoff games. More points than you would think in this one, even in the snow.
1 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia -3.5 over ARIZONA
Boy I really hate to go against the majority of the Forum here, but I really feel like the should win this on by at least a TD. Yes Arizona has momentum and revenge on their minds from that beat the Eagles gave them on Thanksgiving night, but Philly this is Philly 5th trip to the NFC title game since 2002 and that experience will prove invaluable. Arizona?s defense has played much better since the playoffs began, but the Eagles defense is still much better and that gives them another big edge. The Eagles allow just 4.6 yards per play against a schedule that featured a majority of games vs. NFC East foes, while Arizona yielded 5.4 YPP coming out of the weak NFC West Division. The Eagles have allowed 8.3 ppg less than the Cardinals this year and since that game vs. the Cardinals this Eagles defense has not allowed more than 14 points in any game. The Eagles offense has been very productive down the stretch as they are averaging 27.7 ppg in their last 7 games. The Arizona defense has allowed 25.7 ppg on the year and I don?t see them slowing down McNabb and company here. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS from game 8 on out vs. teams that average 260+ yards passing, while the Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Arizona has had a fine run in the playoffs, but it will end today.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Bradley +5.5
Bradley is off to a 5-1 straight SU and ATS in MO Valley play and I like the Braves catching points tonight. The key to a Bradley cover here is what the Braves are able to do on the defensive end against a SIU team only averaging 64.1 ppg. SIU is 4-14 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 55.5 to 61.0 in these games. SIU is also 4-13 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games since 1997. Bradley is playing as well as anyone in the Valley and coming off a road win in conference play has always given this team a big boost of confidence. Bradley is 12-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 68.6 to 63.6. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Ravens +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers
It would be surprising if this game was settled by any more than 3 points. Here we have two of the best defenses in the entire NFL playing each other for a 3rd time in one season. The previous two games were decided by a total of 7 points. This one likely comes down to a field goal and it could easily go either way. The Ravens have been able to create turnovers this post season, and that's something that Ben Roethlisburger has run into trouble with from time to time. Neither team does anything too fancy on the offensive side of the ball. The Steelers proved that they are a better offensive team with Willie Parker in the lineup last week, but the Raven's rush defense is more than capable of keeping him contained. Whichever way you look at this game, my guess is that it's going to come down to the kickers one way or another. I would not be surprised to see Baltimore win this game outright, but the Steelers by a field goal is just as likely of an outcome.