1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
These non-division NFC opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Vikings (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) started 0-2 but have since won two of their last three games, including a 19-17 come-from-behind win over the Lions last week, although Minnesota failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Panthers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) started 3-0 but have since lost two straight, most recently falling to the Eagles 21-18 as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 1-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this speaks volumes. Typically teams are awarded roughly 3-point for home field advantage. So this opener says the Vikings would be favored on a neutral field. The public is all over Carolina, who has a better record and is laying a short number at home. However, pros have gotten down hard on Minnesota, flipping the Vikings from a + 1 dog to -2.5 favorite. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their directions are 34-24 ATS (59 percent) this season. Craig Wrolstad, the lead referee, has historically favored road teams (64-44 ATS, 59 percent).
Lean Vikings
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
This heavyweight showdown between divisional leaders could be a possible playoff preview. The Chargers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) have won three straight and just edged the Browns 47-42 last week, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Ravens (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won four straight, including a big 31-25 come-from-behind win over the Colts last week, although Baltimore failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on the red-hot Chargers getting points, dropping Los Angeles down from + 3.5 to + 2.5. Road dogs are 30-19 ATS (61%) this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 22-8 ATS (73%). Los Angeles also enjoys a rest advantage as the Ravens are on a short week having played on Monday night. Justin Herbert is 6-3 ATS (67%) as a dog in his young career. The Chargers are in a prime teaser spot, as going from + 2.5 to + 8.5 goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Lean chargers and teaser action
4:25 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
This non-conference grudge match is the most heavily bet game of the late afternoon window. The Cowboys (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) are riding high, having won four straight games after losing the season opener to the Bucs. Dallas just waxed the Giants 44-20, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 25-22 win over the Texans, although New England failed to cover as 8-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as roughly a 2-point road favorite. The public is hammering Dallas, who is the only team to cover every number this season. This lopsided support pushed the Cowboys up to -4.5. That's when a flood of sharp Patriots buyback hit the market, dropping New England down to + 3.5 or even + 3 at some shops. The Patriots are one of your top contrarian plays of the day. The lead referee, Brad Allen, has historically favored home teams (59-49 ATS, 55%).
Lean pats
More Sunday Moves
Dolphins-Jags Over 44.5 to 47
Packers -4.5 to -6 at Bears
Packers-Bears Under 46 to 44
Broncos -3 to -4 vs Raiders
Steelers -3.5 to -5 vs Seahawks
Cardinals-Browns Under 54 to 48.5