Sunday Sharp Action

12 p.m. ET: Butler at Providence

Seen some early offshore sharps hit the under from 127 to 126. buy up to 127 and hit the under in what could potentially be a blowout.

Lean under 127

Also some offshore sharp money hitting .....

Illinois State and Evansville Under 137
Iona -7.5
Rider vs Niagara Over 130

3 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Both of these divisional winners are coming off big Wild Card wins. The 4-seed Rams (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) crushed the Cardinals 34-11, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the 2-seed Bucs (14-4 SU, 10-8 ATS) brushed aside the Eagles 31-15, covering as 7-point home favorites.

This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite. At BetMGM, the bets are split down the middle. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. However, we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5, signaling respected money grabbing the Rams plus the points. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-12 ATS (70%) over the past decade. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (36-25 ATS, 59%).

The Bucs have value as a cheap moneyline home favorite (-145). Over the past decade, Divisional Round home favorites are 27-10 (73%) straight up. The Bucs have a rest advantage as well, as Tampa Bay played on Sunday afternoon while the Rams are on a short week after playing Monday night.

We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 48 despite 66% of bets taking the over. Playoff unders that fall at least a half point are 26-19 (58%) over the last decade. Hochuli has historically favored unders (34-25, 58%). The forecast calls for low 60d with 10-15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 16-8 (67%) in the playoffs the past decade.

Lean Rams

6:30 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Both of these Super Bowl hopefuls are coming off Wild Card Weekend blowout wins. The 3-seed Bills (12-6 SU, 10-6-2 ATS) just dominated the Patriots 47-17, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the 2-seed Chiefs (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) just crushed the Steelers 42-21, covering as 11.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Mahomes at home at such a short price. However, despite 57% of bets taking the Chiefs, this line has fallen from 2.5 to 1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Buffalo, with pros grabbing the points not laying them. Buffalo could be a prime teaser spot (+ 1.5 to+ 7.5), which goes through multiple key numbers. Josh Allen is 16-9 ATS (64%) in his career as a dog. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-12 ATS (70%) over the past decade. Buffalo enjoys a rest advantage, having played last Saturday compared to the Chiefs playing last Sunday.

Pros and Joes both expect a high scoring game, as the total has been steamed up from 53 to 54. Currently 83% of bets and 93% of money is on the over. The forecast at Arrowhead calls for low 30s with mild 5 MPH winds. These teams met back in Week 5 and Buffalo upset the Chiefs 38-20 at Arrowhead.

Lean Bills