Good morning Happy Sunday !
1 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
If the playoffs started today, Kansas City would be the 2-seed in the AFC and Miami would be the 6-seed. The Chiefs (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) have won seven straight and just beat the Broncos 22-16 on Sunday night, although they failed to cover as 13-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) started the season 1-3 but have gone 7-1 since, most recently beating the Bengals 19-7 last week and covering as 10-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public is all over Patrick Mahomes and company. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen Kansas City stay frozen at -7.5 or even fall to -7. This indicates wiseguy money buying low on the Dolphins plus the points, ideally plus the hook (+ 7.5). December home dogs of + 7 or more have covered roughly 56% of the time over the past decade. We've seen the total rise from 48.5 to 50.5. The forecast calls for clear skies and 80+ degrees in Miami, ideal conditions for offense.
Lean Miami +7.5
4:25 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers
These NFC non-division opponents are trending in opposite directions. Washington (5-7 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) is getting hot at the right time. The Football Team has won three straight and just shocked the undefeated Steelers 23-17, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are watching their playoff chances slip away and just fell to the Bills 34-24, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. San Francisco is just 1-4 over their last five games. This line opened with the 49ers listed as 3.5-point "home" favorites (this game will be played in Arizona). Some books had an earlier lookahead of San Francisco -4.5. We've seen a sharp adjustment toward Washington here, with respected pro money grabbing the Football Team plus the points, dropping this line down to the key number of 3. Washington has value as a short road dog + 6 or less (47-26 ATS, 64%) and a dog with a line move in their favor (52-32 ATS, 62%).
Lean Washington +3.5
8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Bettors are in for a treat with this marquee Sunday Night Showdown. If the playoffs started today, Pittsburgh would be the 1-seed and Buffalo the 3-seed. The Steelers (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to Washing 23-17 and losing straight up as 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, Buffalo (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) has won two straight and five of their last six, including a 34-24 win over the 49ers last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Pro money immediately pounced on Buffalo as a short home dog and moved the line all the way to Bills -2.5. Essentially, wiseguys have flipped Buffalo from a dog to a favorite. We've seen some respected buyback on Steelers + 2.5, dropping the line back down to 2 where it rests now. Pittsburgh has value as a buy low inflated dog off a loss. Primetime dogs are 25-14 ATS (64%) on the season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 47-26 ATS (64%). We've also seen some over money, driving this total up from 47 to 49.
I would tease either side or lean Steelers
More Sunday Line Moves
Titans-Jags Under 53 to 52
Bengals + 3.5 to + 3 vs Cowboys
Cardinals-Giants Over 45 to 47
Colts-Raiders Over 50.5 to 52.5
Chargers + 2.5 to pick'em vs Falcons
Saints -6.5 to -7.5 at Eagles
Saints-Eagles Under 45 to 43