Larry Ness
Game Details
Oct 18 '20, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Washington Football Team vs Giants
Play on: Giants -2½ -109 at BMaker
Game Analysis
My free play is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. The 0-5 New York Giants are one of just THREE remaining winless NFL teams as the 2020 season moves into Week 6. The other two are the New York Jets (the Giants co-tenants of MetLife Stadium) and the Atlanta Falcons, who fired coach Dan Quinn at the beginning of the week. While 0-5 is 0-5, it should be noted that while the Falcons and Jets are a combined 1-9 ATS, the Giants have gone 3-2. Three of the Giants' losses have come by single digits, including a 37-34 road setback last week in Dallas against the Cowboys. First-year head coach Joe Judge said he is encouraged by his team's progress. "That's all that really matters, to be honest with you, the progress that we're making right now," Judge said after his team's latest loss. "The record will come in time. Obviously, we're not happy about the losses, that's not what we do here. But I've seen a lot of progress on all fronts and all units. We have to keep making consistent progress to keep being a better team as the year goes." It's fair to say it's "put up or shut up" time for the Giants this Sunday, as 1-4 Washington visits East Rutherford, NJ.
Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but rallied to score the game's final 27 points in a 27-17 win over the defending NFC East champs. However, very little has gone right for the team since then, as Washington has lost FOUR in a row (0-3-1 ATS) since that Week 1 victory, allowing at each 30 points in each contest (average of 31.3 PPG). Washington has seen enough of QB Dwayne Haskins (61.0% for 939 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTS for a QB rating of 80.3), replacing him in favor of backup Kyle Allen in last Sunday's 30-10 loss to the Raiders. Allen completed 9 of 13 passes for 74 yards and rushed for a TD before he was injured on a scramble, which created an opportunity for Alex Smith to take the field for the first time since his gruesome leg injury in 2018. However, Washington is expected to turn back to Allen against the Giants after he reportedly was cleared by doctors to return. This would be his 15th career start, including 13 with the Carolina Panthers over the previous two seasons (he's 6-8 as an NFL starter). Allen can't expect much help from a running game that averages just 101.8 YPG on 3.5 YPC but RBs McKissic (17 catches) and Gibson (145 catches) have both done a nice job as receivers. Washington's lone WR of note is second-year player McLaurin, who has 29 catches, averaging 15.8 YPC.
With Barkley out for the season, the Giants know all about the lack of a running game, as New York ranks dead-last in the NFL by averaging a pathetic 79.0 YPG on the ground (3.8 YPC). The Giants are sticking with second-year QB Daniel Jones, who showed flashes of potential in 2019. He ended the season having completed 61.9% for 3,027 yards with 24 TDs and just 12 INTs. He's completing 61.0% this year for 1,111 yards (that's on pace for 3,5000 yards on the season) but he has just two TD passes and five INTs. QB rating of 70.6 is down from his rookie season, when he posted an 87.7 rating. Second-year WR Slayton has 23 catches (15.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Engram has 18 catches. A huge disappointment so far is Golden Tate, who has a modest 18 catches plus is averaging only 8.1 YPC (Tate had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons (2014-17).
The Giants should 'smell' the chance for a "W" and they could be the FIFTH straight team to score 30-plus points on Washington's defense. Even if that's a stretch, the Giants should have little trouble covering this ever so slight impost.
Good luck...Larry
Nice bit of info....you're still gonna be Jimmythegreat for me
Brandon Lang
Let's get down to business for this Sunday card.
Your Over of the day could well come in this AFC North meeting at Heinz Field when the surging Cleveland Browns face the Pittsburgh Steelers for the first time this season.
Forget the fact both meetings last year between the teams landed Under the total, the Browns were a mess last season under Freddie Kitchens and the Steelers were using Duck Hodges/Mason Rudolph under center.
Prior to last season's 2 Unders, the teams had been Over in 3 straight and 4 of their previous 5 series meetings.
With Cleveland implementing first year coach Kevin Stefanski's offensive mind with solid success, the Browns have scored 32 or more points in each of their last 4 games - all 4 of those games landing Over the total. In fact, Cleveland enters this game on a 7-2 Over run their last 9 games dating back to last season.
Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin's team has back a healthy Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, and the Steelers are averaging a cool 29.5 points per game through their first 4 games played this year. The Steelers have landed Over in each of their last 3 games.
With Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger firing away through the air, let's look for this one to turn into an offensive showcase.
Brownies and Men of Steel land Over for Week Six.
2* CLEVELAND-PITTSBURGH OVER
Chris Jordan
This week I'm right back on the Ravens.
My research finds the last time the Philadelphia Eagles caught at least +7 points at home was Jan. 1, 2006, when they were +7.5 underdogs and lost by 11 to the Washington Redskins. As far back as 1980, the Eagles have caught +7 or more at home on nine occasions.
Here we are more than 14 years since the last time the Eagles caught this many in Philly, and it tells me one thing: they're that bad this season.
I'm laying the points with Baltimore, as its balanced attack on both sides will be far too much for the Eagles to defend or keep up with.
It's already been tough for Philadelphia to stop the pass this season, as it's allowed a league fourth-highest 10 TDs through the air and is blitzing just 19.2% of the times when the opposition is dropping back. Now the Eagles have to contend with reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson, who ranks fifth in the league with an average of 2.97 seconds in the time-to-throw category. Jackson is one of 11 quarterbacks who have thrown 2 or fewer interceptions.
Last week the Eagles defense allowed the Steelers to convert 11 of 15 third downs, extending drives and controlling the pace of the game with a time of possession of 34:43. I don't know how they plan on slowing Jackson and company.
On the flipside, the Ravens defense is peaking right now, and just played its best game of the season with seven sacks and three forced turnovers against the Bengals.
Again, there's a reason the Eagles are catching +7 or more at home for the first time in more than 14 years. Baltimore will prove the oddsmakers right.
1* RAVENS
Steven DeAngelo
All aboard the D-Train.
They say you are a "square" in this industry when you take the obvious play in the NFL, but sometimes the obvious play happens to be the right play and I feel that is the case today when the Ravens head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles.
Philly gave it a solid shot last weekend at Pittsburgh but in the end fell short both straight up and against the spread to dip to 1-3-1 straight up and just 1-4 against the spread.
The Eagles will have their hands full trying to diffuse the Baltimore Ravens who thoroughly trashed Cincinnati, 27-3. A Cincinnati team that tied Philadelphia a couple of weeks back no less! The Ravens recorded 7 sacks last weekend against Joe Burrow and should be able to get to Carson Wentz in this meeting that has the potential to turn into a 10-point rout.
Baltimore has won their last 8 on the road and are 6-1-1 against the spread in those 8 roadies. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has failed in 5 of their last 6 against the spread and happen to have covered only one time in their last 7 games played at home.
Do you know that Lamar Jackson ran the ball just 2 times for a total of 3 yards in last week's 24 point victory?
Yes, this one could get ugly.
Lay it with the Ravens.
4* BALTIMORE
Brad Wilton
No disrespect to Tom Brady, but right now the future Hall-of-Famer and his new team do not look to be on the same level as the other future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers and his team. That being the case, I will side with Green Bay in this near pick contest this afternoon in Tampa.
Green Bay plays this game with a perfect 4-0 record both straight up and against the spread and they are coming into this game off a bye-week that helped from the perspective that the extra time has allowed starting wide receiver Davante Adams to get healthy from a hamstring injury that had kept the Pack's #1 receiver out of action for the past 2 Green Bay wins.
Rodgers has his team averaging a league-high 38 points per game while also ranking 2nd in yards per game, 4th in rushing yards per game and 5th in passing yards per game! Getting Adams back will only increase the offensive pressure the Packers will put on the Buccaneers defense today.
Tampa Bay has had a few extra days to get ready for this home game, as they last time we saw the Bucs they were busy blowing a 13-0 lead at Chicago under the Thursday night lights in a 20-19 setback that stopped a 3 game winning streak. Tampa was a little sloppy in that game as they were whistled for 11 penalties and the offensive line allowed Tom Terrific to be sacked 3 times while throwing under pressure for most of the night.
Again, the newness of Brady and Gronk coming to Tampa Bay along with a brand new coach in Bruce Arians has the Buccaneers far from a polished product. On the flip side Matt LaFleur's second season at the helm with Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers sure looks like it is going to pick up where it left off last season - NFC Championship Game! - and being on the road this season is sure not like it has been when the stadiums were filled to capacity.
This could well be one of the final matchups between 2 of the games greatest quarterbacks of their time. Right now it's Rodgers and the Packers that hold the upperhand.
Go ahead and play Green Bay.
3* GREEN BAY
Jack Brahman
If you remember last season, when the Dolphins were being accused of tanking the season to get the No. 1 draft pick, they started out 0-7 before a 26-18 victory over the Jets.
I'm going to venture to say Miami - which has won four of the last five meetings - is a better football team in 2020, while the Jets are much, much worse.
I mean, the Dolphins traveled cross country and put a 43-spot on the defending NFC champion 49ers, in a 26-point shellacking. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 22 of 28 passes (78.6%) and a season-high 350 yards with 3 TDs vs. 0 INTs, for a 154.5 rating. He's now thrown two or more TD passes, 0 INTs and a 100+ rating in three of his past four meetings.
Fitzpatrick passed for 288 yards and three TDs vs. 0 INTs for a 118.8 rating in that eight-point home win over the Jets last season, and aims for his sixth straight at home with 315+ yards passing. He has backfield mates Myles Gaskin, Jordan Howard and Matt Breida to count on, while he's establishing a nice chemistry with Devante Parker.
The Jets won't have anyone who can contend, as they now have just three healthy wide receivers on the active roster: Jamison Crowder, Braxton Berrios and Jeff Smith, after placing wideout Chris Hogan on IR on Tuesday. Breshad Perriman has missed the past three games with an ankle injury, while rookie Denzel Mims is still on IR after injuring his hamstrings during training camp.
That doesn't help the league's worst scoring team, which is averaging just 15.0 points per game and a league second-lowest 263.0 yards per game.
Lay the points. Miami rolls.
5* DOLPHINS
Finally!
Denver and New England were supposed to play last Sunday, but as you well know in this 2020 COVID-related season you get what you can get and you don't pitch a fit.
Having said that, both teams figure on having some key players back in the fold as Denver's Drew Lock and Phillip Lindsey along with Noah Fant are expected to suit up for the visiting Broncos. On the other side, New England will get back Cam Newton under center and after watching Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham struggle in the Patriots last game - which was back on October 5th in that Monday night 26-10 loss at Kansas City - no doubt New England will be in better hands with Mr. Newton at the controls.
New England is off to a 2-0 start both straight up and against the spread at home this season and Belichick is also 15-6 overall against the spread as a home favorite during the regular season their last 21 in that role!
The Broncos are just 1-3 this year under Vic Fangio and it looks like while they have a few players returning to the fold, things during this challenging COVID season are not exactly going smoothly in the Mile High City where Melvin Gordon was just arrested for drunk driving.
The Patriots defense really impressed me in slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in their last game. If you can slow down Mahomes, I have a feeling you can slow down the still-learning Drew Lock - or Jeff Driskel if Lock is not quite at 100%.
Their is a reason this line is near the double-digit plateau. Yeah, Cam Newton does make that much of a difference for this team when he is under center. As I pointed out, the Patriots are off to a 2-0 start at home and BOTH of those wins at home have come by double-digits.
No trepidation at all in laying the lumber as the home team rolls big here on Sunday.
1* NEW ENGLAND
Dunkel pick of the day
LA Rams at San Francisco - Sunday October 18, 2020
The LA Rams come into Sunday night’s contest with a Dunkel road rating of 130.580. The San Francisco 49ers come in with a Dunkel home rating of 131.187. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog. Dunkel has the score total set at 52.957. The 49ers have gone over in 5 of their last 7 games versus the Rams. Dunkel’s Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2; Over).
Atlanta
@
Minnesota
Game 255-256
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating: Atlanta
125.380
Minnesota
133.358
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Minnesota
by 8
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Minnesota
by 3 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota
(-3 1/2); Under
Houston
@
Tennessee
Game 257-258
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating: Houston
134.920
Tennessee
134.786
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Houston
Even
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Tennessee
by 3
55
Dunkel Pick: Houston
(+3); Over
Baltimore
@
Philadelphia
Game 263-264
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating: Baltimore
136.678
Philadelphia
134.224
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Baltimore
by 2 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Baltimore
by 8
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia
(+8); Over
Cincinnati
@
Indianapolis
Game 265-266
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating: Cincinnati
122.997
Indianapolis
133.764
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Indianapolis
by 11
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Indianapolis
by 8
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis
(-8); Under
Detroit
@
Jacksonville
Game 253-254
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating: Detroit
125.466
Jacksonville
125.700
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Jacksonville
Even
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Detroit
by 3 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville
(+3 1/2); Under
Washington
@
NY Giants
Game 259-260
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating: Washington
121.701
NY Giants
121.943
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Washington
Even
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: NY Giants
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick: Washington
(+3); Under