dr bob
2 NFL Best Bets this week - 3-Stars on Pittsburgh and 2-Stars on Washington. My NFL math model predictions start this week and I will be sending those out, but there is an error in the programming so that will have to wait until later tonight or tomorrow to get fixed. Remember that the chance to cover is based solely on the math and is based on the historical predictability of my math model. Situational analysis is not included in the math chance to cover and there are often strong situations going against the side that the math favors so read my free analysis on my site to get my final analysis of each game. If the math is strongly in favor of a team and that team is not a Best Bet then there are probably situations going against them.
3 Star Selection
***PITTSBURGH (-5.5) 28 Seattle 14
10:00 AM Pacific, 07-Oct-07
Pittsburgh was in a bad situation last week in Arizona, but the Steelers will be ready to play this week at home against a good Seahawks squad. Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck has bounced back from an off year and has led his team to 5.7 yards per play despite a sub- par rushing attack (just 3.7 ypr), but the Seahawks’ +0.3 yppl offensive rating is not nearly as good as Pittsburgh’s defensive rating of 0.6 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). Pittsburgh’s offense and Seattle’s defense are both 0.2 yppl better than average but the Steelers have a pretty good edge in special teams and my math model favors the Steelers by 7 points. The reason for the play is a very good 77-25-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that applies to Pittsburgh. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points.
2 Star Selection
**WASHINGTON (-3.5) 30 Detroit 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 07-Oct-07
The Lions are coming off a big upset home win over division rival Chicago but that win sets them up in a negative 67-132-3 ATS road letdown situation this week and I certainly don’t mind fading the overrated Lions against a solid Washington team. The Lions have certainly been good offensively this season (6.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average team), but Detroit has allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average stop unit and I rate the Lions a bit below average after factoring in their bad special teams. Washington, meanwhile, is a better than average team with an average attack and a very good defense that’s yielded just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. In addition to the team trend against Detroit, the Redskins apply to a solid 227- 142-12 ATS statistical profile indicator. My ratings favor Washington by 5 points without top WR Santana Moss playing, so we have a bit of line value to go with the strong technical spot. I’ll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 points or less (at -115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion
NY GIANTS (-3.5) 27 NY Jets 17
10:00 AM Pacific, 07-Oct-07
The Giants’ defense has really stepped up their level of play the last 6 quarters, shutting out Washington in the second half of their week 3 come-from-behind win and then dominating the Eagles last Sunday night. After a horrible opening game against Dallas (45 points on 477 yards allowed at 8.8 yards per play) the Giants now rate at 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team), which gives them an edge over a Jets offense that has been just average with starting quarterback Chad Pennington under center. The Giants’ offense, which rates at 0.4 yppl better than average with Eli Manning on the field, has a huge edge over a Jets’ defense that has been 0.6 yppl worse than average so far this season (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl). New York defends the run well but the Jets have given up 7.8 yards per pass play to teams that would average a combined 6.1 yppp against an average defensive team. New York just gave up 7.3 yppp to Buffalo’s rookie quarterback Trent Edwards, who was making his first NFL start, so I expect Manning to have a very good game. My math model favor the Giants by 9 ½ points even without assigning them a home field advantage and I’ll consider the New York Giants a Strong Opinion at -4 or less and I’d take the Giants in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (at -115 odds or better).
BIG TOTAL ALERT Burns AFC Total of the Year
SD/Denver UNDER 41
**BIG GAME ALERT** Burns Divisional Game of Year!
Chicago Bears (+3 or better)
Ben Burns EARLY Afternoon BLOWOUT
Redskins (-4 or better)
Ben Burns' 3-Game Executive Report (EARLY KICKOFF)
Rams (+3 or better)
49ers (+3 or better)
Seattle/Pitt UNDER 37 - Non Conf TOW
Ace Ace
only 5 plays this week
BAL-3.5 -104..............................................$ 300.00
HOU -5.5 -102........................................$800.00
CLEVE +16 1/2+100............................$800.00
PITT OVER 39 -105..............................$2400.00
GB-3-120............................................... $2600.00
EROCKMONEY SPORTS 19-9 @ website
KC +2, MIAMI +5, SEATTLE +6
BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK 1-3 INDY-10
UPSET SPECIAL 3-1 ST LOUIS +4
TOTALS 6-2 MIAMI UND 43' SEATTLE OVER 39
Wunderdog Comp
Game: Arizona at St. Louis (Sunday 10/07 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: St. Louis +3.5
The Rams are a very banged up team and come into this contest with more question marks than answers. They are a hideous 0-4 SU and ATS. If St. Louis is a dissapointment, Arizona has been just the opposite. The Cardinals have been an underdog four straight weeks, covering every game. No win was as big as last week's upset over the Steelers. This week their role cahnges as they become the hunted, instead of the hunter. Historically home dogs have barked loudly in the NFL, and this year certainly has been no different. Home pups are now 14-7 ATS through four weeks. Arizona certainly has been a live dog over the years, but unfamiliar and unkind to backers as a road favorite. They are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in that role since 1995. They are currently using a formula that usually backfires in the NFL - two quarterbacks. Sooner or later that will bite them, and it may be this game. Stephen Jackson and Marc Bulger will both sit this one out, as Gus Frerotte will lead the offense. While most would consider Frerrotte a downgrade, sometimes a struggling team needs a change. This may be the infusion this offense needs (see Buffalo and Edwards last week). Frerotte has a lot of experience and the last two times he has gotten significant playing time he delivered 25 TDs and 15 INTs. With Bulger sitting on a 64.9 QB rating, it can't get much worse. Jackson was not having a good year, so turning the load over to Bryan Leonard may not be as bad as one would think. Leonard has rushed for 4 yards per carry as compared to Jackson's 3.4. The fact that the two offensive super stars are out for St. Louis gives us line value without a big dropoff in performance (from how they have played this year). St. Louis so far has played teams that were 6-1 combined at the time they played them, and 11-5 overall, so they haven't had an easy go yet. They were actually up on Carolina midway through the 3rd quarter, with more yardage for the game. They also led San Francisco 13-7 with just three minutes left. They completely dominated as they produced 20 first downs to the Niners 8, and doubled them up in yardage. So this is a much more competitive team than it would appear at first glance, especially at home. Arizona appears to be an up and coming team, but the hardest corner to turn is winning on the road. This team is 5-34 SU on the road in their last 39 games, and to put them as better than a FG better than anyone on the road at this point, has no value to us. We will ride the Rams with the points.
Vegas Sports Inform.
Free Sunday Trend Plays
Take #417 Over 39 Seattle at Pittsburgh. (NFL)
Seattle is 17-7 O/U in their last 24 games as an underdog and the Seahawks are also 15-6 O/U in their last 21 road games. Pittsburgh is 10-4-1 O/U as a favorite and the Steelers are also 37-15 O/U in their last 52 home games
Locksmith
FREE WINNER FOR 10/7
NFL
1 unit on Jets OVER 41
We don’t expect to see much defense this week in the Big Apple battle. The Jets are 10-2 OVER in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Coughlin is 17-6 OVER in home games off 2 straight division games in all games he has coached since 1992. We expect lots of passing in this one and neither teams secondaries are very good. We’ll take the OVER.
BEN BURNS
Pittsburgh Steelers (-110)
Sun Oct 7 '07 1:00p
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers Oct 7 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers - COMP
Reason: This is the first regular season meeting since these teams faced each other at Ford Field in Super Bowl XL. You'll recall that the Seahawks lost that game by a score of 21-10 and that they felt slighted by the officials in the process. While the Seahawks would surely like to serve up some payback, the situation favors Pittsburgh. We successfully played on the Steelers when they hosted San Francicso two weeks ago. The 49ers were coming off a big divisional win and were now flying across the country to play an early game in the Eastern Time Zone. We've got a nearly identical situation here as Seattle is off a big division win and playing an early game.
Regardless of the situation, the Seahawks never seem to play that well at this time of year. In fact, they're a money-burning 16-40 ATS their last 56 October games including 2-6 ATS the past two years. On the other hand, the Steelers are a profitable 36-19-2 ATS their last 57 October games. They're also 6-1 SU/ATS the past two seasons when listed as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -7 point range. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 33-16 ATS their last 49 in that situation. Catching their guests in a tough spot, I expect the Steelers to bounce back from their first loss and to win this one by at least a touchdown.
Consider laying the points.
JEFF ALEXANDER
NFL
Arizona vs. Saint Louis
Take Saint Louis Rams
Rams +3.5 This is the week for St. Louis as Arizona has not been able to get it done on the road this year and a big win over Pittsburgh puts them in dangerous letdown territory. St. Louis nearly pulled one out at home against division rival San Fran earlier this season. With as close as the games in this division have been this season, we won’t hesitate to take an overdue Rams team here catching better than a field goal at home
LARRY COOK
NFL
Seattle vs. Pittsburgh
Take Pittsburgh Steelers
3* on Pittsburgh Steelers -6 Pittsburgh will turn around and pick up a big home win over Seattle after losing to Arizona on the road last week. Seattle is just 14-33 ATS coming off a division win. The Steelers are on a 14-5 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are 26-8 ATS in their last 36 games against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better. The best teams in the league bring out the best in the Steelers. Pittsburgh wins this game by double digits at home. Bet the Steelers
JOHN MARTIN
NFL
New York vs. New York
Take Under
1 Unit on Jets/Giants Under 41 The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between the Jets and Giants. These teams bring out the best in each other defensively. 5 of the last 6 meetings haven’t surpassed a combined 30 points. The Under is 9-3-1 in the Giants’ last 13 home games. The Under is 9-2 in the Giants’ last 11 games in Week 5. The Jets are 42-25 Under in their last 67 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less. The Giants are 9-1 Under against good passing teams with a 61% completion percentage or better the last 3 seasons. The Jets don’t stretch the field and neither do the Giants. Each team relies heavily on the run and short passes to prolong drives. Cash in with the Under 41 points.
BILL YOUNG
NFL
Detroit vs. Washington
Take Washington Redskins
1* on Washington Redskins -3.5 The Lions picked up a big home win over conference rival Chicago last week. Detroit won’t be so fortunate against this tough Redskins defense Sunday. Washington is giving up only 16.3 points per game while the Lions are yielding a terrible 30.3 points per game this season. Detroit has been putting up point at will, but they won’t go for more than 20 against one of the best defensive secondary’s in the league. The Lions are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. We will bet against a road underdog off an upset win by 10 or more points as an underdog the week prior. This is a 37-13 Situation with a 74% cash rate. The home team is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between Washington and Detroit. Take the Redskins and lay the points.
JIMMY BOYD
NFL
New York vs. New York
Take Over
Jets OVER 41 We don’t expect to see much defense this week in the Big Apple battle. The Jets are 10-2 OVER in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Coughlin is 17-6 OVER in home games off 2 straight division games in all games he has coached since 1992. We expect lots of passing in this one and neither teams secondaries are very good. We’ll take the OVER
Steve Merril
Wash -3.5
The Redskins blew a 17-3 halftime lead versus the Giants two weeks ago in their eventual 24-17 loss. Washington should benefit from last week’s bye and they will come out focused this week. The Redskins will also not overlook a surprising 3-1 SU Detroit squad.
The Lions are not as good as their overall record indicates as they are a very one-dimensional team that throws for 81% of their total offensive yards this year. This pass-based offense is now playing right into the strength of the Redskins’ defense as Washington has an excellent secondary that has allowed just 5.4 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that average 6.3 ypp overall).
The Redskins qualify in a solid 86-39 ATS rushing indicator as NFL teams that can substantially win the rushing battle usually get the pointspread cover. The Redskins are averaging 134 yards per game on the ground which is far superior to a weak Detroit rushing attack that is averaging only 74 yards per game.
The Lions’ four opponents this season are a combined 5-11 SU and Detroit was exposed at Philadelphia two weeks ago when the Lions lost 21-56 as a 5½ -point road underdog. Keep in mind the Redskins played in Philadelphia six days earlier and won outright 20-12 as a 6½-point underdog at the exact same site.
Play REDSKINS
Carlo Campanella COMP
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans Oct 7 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: Tennessee Titans
Reason: After losing QB Vick, Atlanta (1-3) opened the season with three consecutive losses. They finally notched their first win of the season, defeating Houston 26-16 on Sunday in Atlanta. That was their highest point production of the season, as they had previously scored just 3, 7, and 20 points in their first three efforts. The winning streak wont continue as they hit the road this weekend and battle a Tennessee (2-1) squad thats tied for second place in the AFC South, especially knowing that QB Vince Young is 9-3 ATS against teams coming off a SU win. Lay the lumber with the Titans, whos only loss this year came against the undefeated Colts and are only 2 points away from a perfect record.
7* Play On Tennessee
Norm Hitzges
23-20 YTD
Double Play--Dallas -10 vs Buffalo
Double Play--San Francisco/Baltimore Under 35
New Orleans -3 vs Carolina
Jacksonville -2 vs KC
Atlanta +8 vs Tennessee
Arizona -3.5 vs St. Louis
Baltimore -3 vs San Francisco
Tampa Bay/Indy Under 46
Houston/Atlanta Under 43
Sports Insights
Games to Watch YTD 6-6
Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
New York Jets +3.5
Chicago Bears +3.5
LT Profits
While we feel that both the Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins have overachieved in the early going, we do think that the Lions have the better chance of hiding their deficiencies this week.
The Lions are 3-1 despite a very suspect defense, but the Redskins simply lack the firepower to take advantage of that. Detroit has been fine offensively averaging 28.5 points per game, and quarterback Jon Kitna is off to a blazing start. Kitna has completed an impressive 70.5 percent of his passes while throwing for 1,227 yards. He is averaging a very good 8.83 yards per pass attempt, which also helps explain his lofty 104.8 quarterback rating.
By comparison, Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell rates out to a dismal 69.6 percent. The Skins would rather control the ball with the running game, but while Clinton Portis is expected to play, keep in mind that he is recovering from a Grade 1 knee sprain. If he is hindered in any way and Washington is forced to go to the air, the Redskins are in big trouble.
The bottom line here is that the Lions have been scoring points virtually at will while the Redskins have looked lost offensively. Look for the underdog Lions to score just enough points for the upset.
Free Pick: Lions +3½
LT Profits
Apparently, most people including ourselves wrote off the Kansas City Chiefs too soon, as they have now won two games in a row and we feel they have an excellent chance to make it three straight at home vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Now we figured that the Kansas City defense would be improved under Herm Edwards, and it has actually been one of the best in the NFL thus far, surrendering just 16.5 points and 284 8 total yards per game. However, it was the offense that surprised us in the Chiefs’ shockingly easy 30-16 win at San Diego, as Damon Huard threw for 284 yards, which finally opened up some running lanes for Larry Johnson, who promptly rushed for 123 yards on 25 carries. If Huard can continue his efficient play to prevent defenses from keying on Johnson, the Chiefs are going to surprise some people, especially when they play at home.
Now the Jaguars are coming off of a bye after winning their last two games, but all that time off may not have been a good thing as safety Reggie Nelson was questioned about a shooting outside of a Florida nightclub in the wee hours last weekend. Besides that distraction, Jacksonville is still rather banged up even with the bye week, with defensive tackle John Henderson, linebacker Clint Ingram, running back Fred Taylor and tackle Khalif Barnes all nursing injuries.
Finally, the Chiefs have the strongest home field advantage in the NFL, as they are 14-3 straight up at home since 2005, and we look for their home fans to help carry them to the mild upset.
Free Pick: Chiefs +2
Will Cover
Don't expect any offensive fireworks in this one as the Baltimore Ravens have scored just two touchdowns on the road so far this season and plan to attack the San Francisco 49ers' 25th-ranked run defense on the ground, thus keeping the clock moving!
For San Francisco, journeyman QB Trent Dilfer get the start for the NFL's 32nd (and last) ranked passing offense against a strong Baltimore defense that will want to make amends off a poor performance in Cleveland last week. The Niners are 4-1 to the Under before a bye week and the Birds are 17-5 to the Under in the second of back-to-back away games.
How low can this one go? Play the Under.
Free Pick: Ravens-49ers Under 35½
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