Super Bowl 51 Betting News and Notes

Opening Line Report - Super Bowl 51
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

While the Patriots opened universally as field-goal favorites over the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, the record total is the story line that has the attention of Las Vegas bookmakers.

The total opened between 58 and 59.5 around Vegas, and even if it closes at the low end of that range, it would be the highest over/under in Super Bowl history, surpassing the 57 for the Saints’ 31-17 win over the Colts in Super Bowl 44 in Miami.

The Wynn took early sharp action on ‘under’ its opener of 59 for this year’s Super Bowl in Houston, but John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn, figured the wiseguys were going that way at his shop because there were lower numbers elsewhere.

CG Technology opened 58 and saw public money come hard on the ‘over.’

By the time we spoke to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG, about an hour after New England completed its 36-17 win over Pittsburgh for the AFC title, the book had written $20,000 on ‘over’ and just $120 on ‘under’. While the biggest ‘over’ bet was $3,300, CG’s early limit on the Super Bowl total, all the action was public.

“No real sharp action about it,” Simbal said. “It was all fans cashing in their tickets and betting it back on the ‘over’.”

The public will continue to bet ‘over,’ Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, anticipates. That’s the way the public typically bets, and two more ‘overs’ cashing in Sunday’s conference championship games won’t sway them off that tendency. The Falcons’ 44-21 win over Green Bay sent that game soaring ‘over’ a total that was as high as 61 at some spots, and the AFC game got ‘over’ a number ranging from 49.5 to 51 at kickoff.

“The public likes to bet over, and these high numbers aren’t scaring them,” Salmons said.

There will be a number at which wiseguys will be compelled to go the other way, however. While they lost on ‘under’ 61 in Sunday’s NFC tilt, they’ll take another shot with that bet if the Super Bowl total gets to a certain threshold, Salmons guesses.

“Once this game settles, the wiseguys will look to bet under 59,” Salmons said.

They may get that opportunity

“I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up 60, especially after what we saw (Sunday) with the favorites and ‘over’ covering pretty easily,” Simbal said.

The point spread

Sports books across Las Vegas and offshore agreed on the opening point spread for Super Bowl 51, hanging New England -3 as the Pats put their game against the Steelers out of reach.

While no one seems to come close to the Patriots – they’ve failed to cover just three times this season and only twice with Tom Brady active – the early line felt right to the three bookmakers with whom we spoke.

In the week leading up to Sunday’s games, Simbal’s group at CG was thinking New England -3 (-120) or -3.5 for a potential Super Bowl matchup with the Falcons. In fact, CG was dealing Pats -3 (-120) as a look-ahead line, but didn’t get much interest.

“We knew that price wasn’t horrible because none of the sharp guys laid it or took it,” Simbal said. “(But the Falcons) looked awesome (Sunday), and we were thinking maybe 2.5.”

Salmons echoed that sentiment.

“After watching the first game and watching the first half of the second game, I thought the line would be 2.5, maybe even a touch lower,” he said. “But as Pittsburgh kind of gave up in the second half and the Patriots were converting touchdowns, it reached 3, which is where we started the day (before the games were played).”

Salmons said some Westgate house players bet Patriots and ‘over’ in Super Bowl wagering Sunday night. At CG, 20 of the first 33 bets were on New England, although a limit-wager of $11,000 to win $10,000 was placed on the Falcons +3.

Avello said a money-line wager on the Pats prompted a move from -150 to -155 at the Wynn.

How will the line move?

When it comes to Super Bowl wagering, public money overwhelms sharp action. Therefore, the line moves largely based on the public’s opinion, and since they’ve been cashing on the Patriots every week, it’s hard to see the public changing course, especially against the far less popular Falcons.

“If the public decides they like the Patriots, no matter how much the wiseguys like the other side, the public will drive the number,” Salmons said.

Salmons envisions the line getting to as high as 3.5 but not lasting long there before it gets bought back to New England -3 (-120) or -3.5 (even).

Added Avello, “If it’s going anywhere, it’s probably going up. I don’t see it coming down to 2.5. With the number being 3, I’ll hang around at that number, I’ll move money (vig) for a while, and if I start to get really heavy on a side, I’ve got no problem getting off that number, rather early than late. ... I would suspect there will be more money early on the Patriots.”

The public’s tendency to take the dog on the money line but lay the points with the favorite may result in a move to 3.5, according to Simbal.

“In that case, you may end up coming off the 3, because they’re going to lay the 3.5, and as the book you want the 3 working for you so you can scoop it all. But the Falcons are (one of) the least public teams there is, so I’m not so sure that’s 100 percent going to be the case. It’s a tricky game.”

While one bettor at CG is holding a $5,000 ticket on the Falcons at 40/1 odds, the book still wins just under $1 million on Super Bowl futures with an Atlanta win in two weeks.

“They’re one of the least bet teams all year,” Simbal said.

Simbal suggested the books will be in the same position they’ve been all season – rooting against the Patriots.

“They covered and went ‘over’ in both their playoff games so far,” Simbal said of the Pats. “If they cover and go ‘over’ again, the Patriots are going to be main reason why the books had an ugly, ugly football season.”

NEW ENGLAND (16 - 2) vs. ATLANTA (13 - 5)

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 81-53 ATS (+22.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NEW ENGLAND vs. ATLANTA
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England

New England vs Atlanta
New England: 12-3 ATS after scoring 35 points or more last game
New England: 8-1 OVER after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points
Atlanta: 10-28 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Atlanta: 9-0 OVER in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Super Bowl
By Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots (-3, 58.5)

The final game of the NFL season has arrived, as the Falcons and Patriots do battle to determine who will be crowned champion. As you can well imagine, Sunday's showdown features two teams that are rather evenly-matched - but that doesn't mean there aren't weaknesses on both sides that the opponent will look to exploit.
Here are four of the more pronounced mismatches you'll find heading into Super Bowl LI in Houston:

Patriots' red-zone scoring vs. Falcons' downfield defensive doldrums

New England did just about anything it wanted on offense, scoring the most points in the AFC despite being without star quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the regular season. Between Brady's sensational performance, a stout running game led by LeGarrette Blount and solid performances from the entire receiving corps, opposing teams had little shot at stopping the Patriots, especially in the red zone. And that just happens to be where the Falcons' defense struggles most.

Coming into the final weekend of the season, New England ranks ninth in the NFL in percentage of red-zone visits converted into touchdowns at 63.8 percent. That rate is even higher over the Pats' last three games (69.2 percent). New England was almost equally proficient at home (64.1 percent) compared to the road (63.3 percent), but actually came in slightly lower than their 2015 red-zone TD rate (65.2 percent), which ranked fourth in the NFL.

For as prolific as the Atlanta offense has been, the Falcons have been positively dismal when it comes to slowing down opposing teams inside the 20-yard line. Atlanta has posted the worst opponent red-zone touchdown rate in the league at 72.1 percent, and has been only slightly better over its previous three games (66.7 percent). With rates above 70 percent both at home and on the road, Atlanta has been consistently underwhelming - and it could cost the Falcons the Super Bowl.

Patriots' yards after the catch vs. Falcons' YAC struggles

How did Brady rack up more than 3,500 passing yards in just 12 games? The future Hall of Famer still has a great arm, but he also had plenty of help this season, and two guys in particular were pivotal to helping Brady reach the 3,500-yard plateau for the 14th time in his illustrious career. Yards gained after the catch helped New England roll past its opponents - and while Atlanta can certainly keep pace on offense, its defense had a rough season in the YAC department.

The Patriots posted an average YAC of 6.34 yards per reception; coincidentally, only the Falcons have a higher YAC on the season (6.37). New England had a pair of players finish in the top eight in total YAC, with running back James White compiling 540 of his 551 total receiving yards after the catch - good for sixth in the league. Wide receiver Julian Edelman wasn't far behind, finishing with 505 yards after the catch - nearly half of his 1,106-yard tally for the season.

White and Edelman will look to add to their lofty totals Sunday against a Falcons unit that was torched all season. Atlanta allowed the most yards after the catch in the league (2,126), their 132.9 YAC allowed per game slightly higher than that of the runner-up Indianapolis Colts (132.3). And if that wasn't alarming enough, the Patriots were the league's best in YAC allowed, limiting opponents to just 1,463 yards after the catch - an average of just 91.4 per contest.

Julio Jones vs. Malcolm Butler and the Pats' secondary

While the majority of the focus in this post has been on how the teams match up against one another on the whole, there's one pairing that could cause the Patriots fits on Sunday. Atlanta not only has superstars at quarterback and running back in Matt Ryan and Devonta Freeman, it also employs one of the league's most electrifying receivers in Julio Jones - and if Pro Football Focus's evaluation is any indication, the Patriots will have their hands full with him.

Statistically, Jones had what could be considered an okay season by his lofty standards; he finished second in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,409, but scored just six touchdowns. But PFF held him in much higher regard, giving him the highest rating of any player at his position (95.4). His 94.6 receiving grade was nearly 2 1/2 points higher than runner-up Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and almost 6 1/2 points above Pittsburgh Steelers star Antonio Brown.

The Patriots were able to negate Brown in the AFC Championship, limiting him to seven catches for 77 yards. That includes just two catches on four targets when Brown was covered by Malcolm Butler, who will likely draw the bulk of the action against Jones. But while Butler has plenty of PFF love on his side (89.8 rating, sixth at his position), he'll be giving up four inches and 30 pounds to Jones, making this one of the few mismatches the Falcons have at their disposal.

Matt Ryan's improving pocket vs. Patriots' passive pass rush

Ryan is an MVP candidate this season after posting career bests in passing yards (4,944) and touchdowns (38) while throwing a career-low seven interceptions - and it could have been even better than that had the Falcons' offensive line done a slightly better job of keeping him upright. But Ryan and the Falcons have had no such problems recently, and should enjoy another solid showing against a Patriots pass rush that has underwhelmed of late.

Ryan has been sacked on 6.13 percent of his dropbacks so far this season, the 23rd-best rate in the NFL; of the nine teams behind Atlanta on the list, only Miami and Seattle made the playoffs. But things have improved dramatically over the past three games, with the Falcons allowing sacks on just 3.48 percent of plays over that span. That includes a zero-sack performance in their NFC Championship victory over the Green Bay Packers.

New England's pass rush is trending in the opposite direction heading into Super Bowl LI. The Patriots, coincidentally, rank 23rd in the NFL in sack percentage at 5.14, but have recorded sacks on just 2.42 percent of opponent plays over their past three games. They didn't have a single sack in the AFC Championship, one year after positing the fifth-highest sack rate in football (7.25 percent). If Ryan can stay on his feet, the Falcons have a puncher's chance at taking home the Lombardi Trophy.

Advantage - Patriots
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Patriots are seeking fifth Super Bowl title not only in franchise history, but also in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era. New England battles Atlanta in Super Bowl LI in Houston in a matchup of the league’s top offense in the Falcons and the top defense in the Patriots. Atlanta’s offense registered a league-high 540 points, which ranks tied for seventh all-time in a single season, along with the 2000 St. Louis Rams.

Teams that have posted scoreboard-busting numbers over the years don’t win championships, as the six squads that put up more points in a season than Atlanta all failed to capture the title. Only two of those teams, the 2013 Broncos and the 2007 Patriots reached the Super Bowl, as the two powerful offenses combined for only 22 points in the Big Game.

This is the sixth time in Super Bowl history that the league’s top offense will square off against the best defense. Three years ago, the Seahawks humbled the Broncos, 43-8 as 2½-point underdogs, as Denver quarterback Peyton Manning (who threw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns that season) was intercepted twice and tossed his only touchdown when his team trailed, 36-0. Only once in the first five tries has the best offense knocked off the league’s top defense in the Super Bowl as the 49ers routed the Broncos in Super Bowl XXIV in 1990.

The Patriots have allowed a total of 250 points this season, as the next best defense gave up 284 points (Giants). The defense has stepped up down the stretch by yielding 17 points or fewer in eight of the last nine games, including 17 to the Steelers in the AFC Championship.

Under Belichick, the Patriots have given up 21 points or fewer in four of six Super Bowl appearances, as the highest amount allowed came to Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII in a 32-29 win.

The Falcons haven’t won a playoff game away from Atlanta since the Wild Card round of the 2002 playoffs at Green Bay. Atlanta has dropped four consecutive postseason games on the road, while winning four of 13 playoff contests in franchise history away from Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium and the Georgia Dome.

Brady has been shut down in both his Super Bowl losses to the Giants, but his previous appearance in this game was his best. In Super Bowl XLIX, the Patriots edged the Seahawks, 28-24 as Brady threw for 328 yards, completed 75% of his passes, and tossed four touchdowns when Falcons’ head coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator of Seattle.

In the four Super Bowl wins with Brady at the helm, the Patriots have averaged 26 points per game, but New England hopes to improve on a 1-4 mark against the spread in their last five Super Bowl trips.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson chimes in with his thoughts on New England’s prowess from an offensive standpoint, “New England faced some stiff opposing defenses with an average league ranking of opponents at 13th in yards per play defense, yet the Patriots were still the third-highest scoring team in the league even playing four games with backup quarterbacks. In the 14 games with Brady, New England averaged 30.7 points per game, a pace that would have been the 19th-best in NFL history and only behind Atlanta this season.”

Nelson points out that although the Falcons made it to the Super Bowl, their record was anything but elite, “What might be concerning considering how impressive Atlanta’s offense has been is that they went just 11-5. None of the six teams in NFL history with a higher scoring regular season took home the Lombardi Trophy, but those teams went a combined 84-12 in the regular season even with some of those teams sporting similarly shaky supporting defensive units. That group of six teams includes a 16-0 team, two 15-1 teams, and two 13-3 teams.”

New England led the NFL by allowing only six rushing touchdowns in the regular season, while yielding 88.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranked tied for third in the league.

Falcons’ running back Devonta Freeman rushed for a career-high 1,079 yards, but broke the 100-yard mark only twice, including a 139-yard effort against San Francisco, who ranked last in the league in rushing defense. In the Week 15 blowout of the 49ers, the Falcons took advantage of San Francisco’s porous rush defense by posting 248 yards and three touchdowns.

In two playoff games, Freeman rushed for a combined 87 yards on 28 carries (3.1 yards/attempt), while scoring only two rushing touchdowns in the last four games.

Advantage - Falcons
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The advantages for Atlanta over New England in Super Bowl LI are mostly based on its explosive offensive arsenal, but we’ll also touch on a young and improving defense that starts four rookies and a pair of second-year players.

Dan Quinn’s team has scored 540 points this season, the seventh-most in NFL history. For the first time in NFL history, a quarterback (ninth-year veteran Matt Ryan) threw touchdown passes to 11 different receivers.

If you had to script the parts of what you’d want from an explosive offense, the Falcons have those covered. Experienced QB playing the best football of his life? That’s a check with Ryan. Perhaps the best receiver in the league? That’s Julio Jones. Multiple RBs that have explosive speed, can produce between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have those attributes covered.

A solid and healthy offensive line? Atlanta sports the only unit that has started the same five guys all year long. Depth at WR? The Falcons get contributions from Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu and Justin Hardy. Hell, if we want to get greedy, why not request one of the NFL’s best blocking fullbacks who also has great hands catching the ball? That’s Patrick DiMarco, who had a 31-yard catch against Green Bay.

How salty is New England’s defense? Well, the stats tell us the Patriots lead the league in scoring, allowing only 15.6 points per game. However, veteran VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson is here to explain how those numbers can be misleading.

Nelson said, “New England’s #1 scoring defense will take on a lot of scrutiny this week as they don’t look much like the elite defenses that have taken home Super Bowls in recent years, notably the 2013-14 Seahawks or last season’s Broncos. The 18 games New England played wound up vs. teams that have an average league ranking of 19th in yards per play offense including facing four games vs. the league’s three worst yards-per-play offenses. Counting the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots only played four games vs. the league’s top 10 yards-per-play-offenses including none vs. the top five, and in two of those four games they faced a backup quarterback.”

Nelson wasn’t done there when it came to chipping away at a New England defense that simply hasn’t faced a prolific offense of the sort that Atlanta owns. Nelson added, “Just about every defensive indicator will lean to New England in this matchup but the schedule for the Patriots can certainly be questioned, not facing a top 10 rated quarterback in any of the 18 games they have played. Ryan is #1 on that list ahead of Tom Brady and his numbers in two playoff games are off the charts, including lighting up one of the league’s better defensive teams against Seattle.”

Indeed, Atlanta’s offensive numbers are amazing. During 16 regular-season games, the Boston College product produced career-highs in completion percentage (69.9%), passing yards (4,944), yards per pass attempt (9.3), TD passes (38), QB rating (117.1) and a career-low seven interceptions. Making those numbers more impressive is the fact that Ryan was coming off one of his worst season in 2015 under a new coaching staff and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.

After throwing only 21 TD passes (second-lowest of career) compared to 16 interceptions (second-worst of career), Quinn nonetheless stuck with Shanahan. Ryan dedicated the offseason to working on the skills that Shanahan wanted him to utilize, such as better and quicker footwork when making play-action fakes.

I became sold on the Falcons this year, ironically, in a loss at Seattle. Despite trailing 17-3 at halftime and struggling mightily to keep Seattle’s defensive front out of Ryan’s face, they responded with a 21-0 third quarter to take the lead. If the refs would’ve flagged Richard Sherman for a blatant pass interference in the game’s final minute, Atlanta probably wins that game.

But even in defeat, it was clear this Atlanta squad had the toughness, determination and heart that had been lacking since four years ago when it came 10 yards shy of going to the franchise’s second Super Bowl.

Atlanta (13-5 straight up, 12-6 against the spread) is even better than its record portrays. Quinn’s team lost three unfathomable heartbreakers, including the aforementioned loss at Seattle. The Falcons also lost at home in overtime to the Chargers, who rallied from a 17-point deficit and were fortunate to get to OT when Matt Bryant’s 58-yard field goal on the last play of regulation hit the cross bar. They also lost at home to Kansas City (by one point!) when the Chiefs scored on a pick-six, a pick-two, a fake punt and a fourth-and-goal play.

How hot is Ryan right now? Well, he’s led Atlanta to six consecutive victories by throwing 18 TD passes without an interception. Ryan torched the Packers for 392 passing yards and four TDs, and he threw for 338 yards and three TDs against the Seahawks.

Although he missed a pair of regular-season games, Jones still had 83 receptions for 1,409 yards during the regular season. He had nine catches for 180 yards and two TDs vs. Green Bay and the farewell game at the Georgia Dome two weeks ago.

If you look at the overall stats, Atlanta’s defense isn’t overly impressive. But when you’re often protecting leads, large ones in some instances, you’re going to give up a good bit of yards. However, this unit continues to improve each week. In fact, the Falcons have held six of their last eight foes to 21 points or fewer. And, if we want to get nit-picky, we shouldn’t count KC’s 29 points because nine points came from Eric Berry’s multiple interceptions and seven more came off a fake punt.

When Atlanta lost its best cover corner in Desmond Trufant to a season-ending injury in November, conventional wisdom indicated that it would be a huge loss for this defense. But thanks to the emergence of rookie free agent DB Brian Poole, who inexplicably wasn’t drafted after a stellar collegiate career at Florida, the secondary has fared just fine.

Poole is one of four rookie starters. Safety Keanu Neal and LB Deion Jones were sensational picks in the first and second rounds out of UF and LSU, respectively, by GM Thomas Dimitroff. He also scored big with LB De’Vondre Campbell, a fourth-round selection out of Minnesota. Jones and Neal are the Falcons’ top tacklers, while Poole and Campbell are fifth and sixth on the team in tackles.

Jones had three interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes, during the regular season and also had a pick against Seattle in the NFC semifinals. Vic Beasley, a second-year DE from Clemson, looked like a bust in an unproductive rookie campaign. Beasley shook that bust label quickly this year, though, when he led the NFL with 15.5 sacks and also had six forced fumbles. Neal, by the way, had five forced fumbles.

Obviously, experience is not an advantage for Atlanta when matched up with New England and its six Super Bowl trips during the Brady/Belichick Era. With that said, Quinn has been down this road. He was Seattle’s defensive coordinator in a pair of Super Bowls, one win over Denver and a loss, albeit in gut-wrenching fashion, to New England in a game the Seahawks’ defense acquitted itself quite well.

Atlanta has only been an underdog once since mid-October, but it isn’t an unfamiliar situation. The Falcons were underdogs six times this year, compiling a 5-1 spread record with four outright victories.

Advantage - Under
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Outside of boxing or mixed martial arts, betting an ‘under’ in any sporting event doesn’t necessarily provide the excitement you could be looking for and it usually puts you up against the betting public.

Those bettors leaning low in Super Bowl 51 will be hard to find in the sportsbooks this Sunday when the Patriots and Falcons square off.

According the VegasInsider.com SB51 Betting Update, there is an early 2:1 lean to the ‘over’ in betting tickets from the masses and the only reason the number hasn’t moved that much is because the professionals (sharps) have been coming in with large ‘under’ wagers. Keep in mind that it hasn’t been a great NFL season for the so-called wise guys.

The ‘under’ cashed in last year’s Super Bowl between Carolina and Denver and looking back at the historical numbers, the total in the NFL finale has practically been a stalemate in the first 50 matchups.

VegasInsider.com senior handicappers Paul Bovi and Joe Nelson provide their thoughts on the ‘under’ in Super Bowl 51 plus I touched on some reasons to support your lean to the low side.

CD’s Under Angles

New England enters this game with the top-ranked scoring defense, holding opponents to 15.7 points per games. Thirteen of their 18 opponents were held to under 20 points this season.

Even though Atlanta is much lower in the defensive scoring (24.8 PPG), the unit allowed 18.9 PPG in the second-half of the season, which includes 20 and 21-point efforts in the playoffs.

I touched on “Big Plays” in my ‘over’ piece and how Atlanta was ranked fourth in big play percentage but they will be facing a New England defense that only allowed 59 big plays this season, which is the second best mark in the NFL. The team ranked above the Patriots was Denver, who held Atlanta to 23 points when they met in Week 5 of the regular season.

A lot has been made of New England’s competition and it’s a fair argument but holding Pittsburgh’s juggernaut to 17 points in the AFC Championship game can’t be ignored. The Steelers did have injuries and certainly left points off the board but 17 is still 17.

Including that effort, Bill Belichick and the Patriots have coincidentally only allowed 17.3 PPG in their last six playoff games. That includes New England’s 28-24 victory over Seattle in Super Bowl 49. Many forget that the Seahawks and Patriots were scoreless after the first quarter in that game and Seattle was getting blanked for the first 27 minutes.

While Atlanta’s offense is a well-oiled machine, it’s fair to question the mindset of Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. He’s off to be the new head coach of San Francisco next season and I’m assuming he’s been working both fronts the last two weeks. There was a report about him losing his backpack (with playbook) and that could certainly lead to suspicions.

It’s hard to dismiss what Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan and the offense has done this season, you can’t ignore the fact that he’s 0-2 in his career in playoff games on the road. The Falcons scored a combined 26 points in those games while he had two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Playing that same angle with New England quarterback Tom Brady, you can draw a parallel between the gunslingers. In his last five postseason games away from Foxboro, the Patriots are averaging 18.6 PPG and that number was helped with a 28-point effort in the aforementioned Super Bowl versus Seattle.

Expert Analysis – VI Handicapper Paul Bovi

While the game certainly has a chance to exceed the 59-point totals it becomes a tough take given the inflated number which comes in at several points higher than would be expected for a regular season contest. The total comes in only 1 point less than the Falcons-Packers game of a week ago, and the Patriots defense is without question far superior to that of that of Green Bay's unit.

The Falcons have seen the low side of this number in 10 of their 18 games while the Pats have exceeded this total only once, that a 41-25 road win over the Bills as Tom Brady threw 4 TD passes. This is arguably the most potent offense the Patriots have faced all year as they have taken on a preponderance of below average signal callers, which may well inspire them to emphasize a ball control offense employing a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount along with a short passing game. With the number at a premium, elongated drives will not be an over bettors' friend here, however, that could well be the case in this one as the Patriots will also rely heavily on a 'bend but no break' defensive strategy.

Expert Analysis – VI Handicapper Joe Nelson

56½ is the previous high Super Bowl total from the New Orleans/Indianapolis Super Bowl in 2010 with a 31-17 final and Super Bowls with a total of 50 or higher have leaned to the ‘under’ at a 6-3 clip including each of the past four instances since 2002 falling below the number including three games involving New England.

Blindly backing the ‘over’ in Falcons games has been a successful strategy this season but only eight of now 18 games reached 58 points including only two of the nine most recent games hitting that mark. The ‘under’ has a 10-8 edge in Patriots games even with both playoff games going ‘over’ and only one New England game all season surpassed 53 points. 31 points allowed in the home loss to Seattle was the highest score against New England this season and only four times in 18 games has a Patriots foe topped 21 points.

The Patriots only topped last week’s 36-point output just twice on the season and the scoring drives of 28 yards and 24 yards late in the game off turnovers padded the final score in the AFC Championship. Despite marginal defensive numbers and several high scoring shootout-style games, Atlanta actually didn’t allow more than 33 points in a game this season though they allowed at least 31 points six different times.

Since November 2015 the ‘under’ is on a 10-5 run in Houston’s NRG Stadium with no team ever topping 30 points but that is mostly due the tenant Texans featuring a capable defense but inept offensive play for the most part in that run of games. The last Super Bowl in Houston was one of the highest scoring Super Bowls with a 32-29 win for New England over Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII in 2004. In that game the Patriots held a 14-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter before a wild final frame that featured 37 points was won on a last second Adam Vinatieri field goal. Only nine of the previous 50 Super Bowls would have eclipsed this total though eight of those games are in the last 30 years.

With two weeks to game plan both coaching staffs may count on running the ball being the best opportunity as both pass defenses as New England was 6th and Atlanta 11th in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed. Atlanta was more vulnerable on the ground allowing 4.6 yards per carry and while New England owns a credible run defense the two teams to beat New England featured a combined total of 58 rushing attempts, sticking with a balanced offensive attack even if the yards came at a modest rate.

While the Patriots won the game the second highest scoring game against New England came from the Bills in a game in which the Buffalo rushed for 167 yards as success on the ground is likely going to be a priority for both teams which could slow down the scoring pace. Atlanta had the fifth most rushing yards in the NFL this season despite the high profile passing attack and against a very talented New England secondary a patient conservative approach early might be the preferred strategy for a Falcons team and staff that will likely feel like a bigger underdog than they actually are. If that is the case a slower early pace might make this astronomical total difficult to reach unless the Houston Super Bowl again features late fireworks.

Advantage - Over
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl XLI kicks off on Sunday Feb. 5, 2017 and the betting public is backing New England as the short favorite over Atlanta according to our Betting Trends matchup index. Even though the margin isn’t as wide, the majority of bettors are also leaning to the ‘over’ between the Patriots and Falcons.

It’s not surprising to see bettors leaning to the high side, especially knowing that the ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in this year’s NFL Playoffs with an average combined score of 48.9 points per game.

Oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out an opening total of 57 ½ for the Super Bowl and that number has jumped up as high as 59. Most betting shops are showing 58½ or 59 as of Friday morning.

With assistance from VegasInsider.com senior handicapper Joe Nelson, we’ll touch on the ‘over’ in this piece and also provide you reasons to back the ‘under’ in another installment.

CD’s Over Angles

The Falcons are averaging 34.4 points per game, which is ranked first in the league while the Patriots are just two spots behind them at 28.4 PPG.

Atlanta has been the best ‘over’ bet this season, producing a 15-2-1 record.

A lot of the Falcons success on offense came from big plays and they were ranked third with 93 runs of 10 yards or more and passing plays of 20 yards or more. If you enjoy playing totals, then check out this site and then follow up with this year’s O/U records, since they’re correlated.

In four games versus the NFC this season, Atlanta averaged 29 PPG with the lowest output being 23 points in a road game against Denver, one of the better defensive units in the league.

New England averaged 30.7 PPG in the 14 games with Tom Brady as quarterback this season and they enter this game on a roll, averaging 35 PPG in their last three games.

Including the results from this year's playoffs, the Falcons have now seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in six postseason games with quarterback Matt Ryan under center behind an offense averaging 30.7 PPG.

Playing with a rest is often overlooked but Atlanta has done very well with the extra week. Since Ryan joined the team in 2008, the Falcons have gone 8-2 when playing with rest and the offense averaged 30 PPG which helped produce a 6-4 'over' mark. This includes the 36-point effort against Seattle in this year's Divisional Playoff round.

New England’s offense has played well off a bye in the playoffs. The Patriots are averaging 34.8 PPG in their last six postseason games with rest which includes a 34-point effort against Houston this year and 28 versus Seattle in the Super Bowl two years ago.

While the Patriots boast the best scoring defense, the same can’t be said for Atlanta’s unit. The Falcons are ranked 22nd in total yards (367.5) and a lot of those numbers came through the air (263.5 YPG). Atlanta’s ranked 23rd in scoring defense (24.8 PPG).

The Patriots have played well in this venue, going 4-1 all-time and that includes a victory in Super Bowl 38 versus Carolina. The ‘over’ went 4-1 in those games and the Patriots helped the cause by averaging 28.6 PPG.

Expert Analysis – VI Handicapper Joe Nelson

With the league’s first and third-ranked scoring offenses meeting in the Super Bowl it is no surprise that the highest total in Super Bowl history is expected. In NFL history there have only been 12 games with a total of 58 or higher including only two playoff games with both of those games clearing ‘over’ including the 44-21 NFC Championship win for the Falcons.

The NFC Championship game didn’t slip ‘over’ until a late Green Bay touchdown with the game out of hand although the case could be made that the Packers should have scored more points earlier in the game with missed opportunities and that the Falcons could have scored more late if they had needed to. A late Pittsburgh touchdown with the outcome decided also pushed the AFC Championship ‘over’ in a game that featured 48 first downs and very poor rushing numbers on both sides. The Falcons averaged 10.3 yards per pass last week vs. Green Bay’s limited secondary and Atlanta led the league in that category by a wide margin this season at 8.9 yards per attempt, a full yard better than New England at #2 as this high total is certainly justifiable.

The ‘over’ is 15-2-1 in Falcons games this season with Atlanta the 7th highest scoring team in NFL history in the regular season, scoring nearly 34 points per game. Atlanta has scored 80 points in two playoff games including posting 36 points on a Seattle defense that was one of the top rated defensive teams in the league this season. Both of those games came in a dome setting in Atlanta however the scoring numbers didn’t drop dramatically for the Falcons on the road this season, posting 32.5 points per game though with some inconsistency, topping 40 points three times but also having three of the team’s four lowest output games of the season away from home.

There is good reason to be suspicious of New England’s strong defensive numbers as they didn’t face a top 10 rated quarterback in any of the 18 games they have played with Ben Roethlisberger at #11 in the AFC Championship meeting. Add that Roethlisberger didn’t play in the regular season meeting with Pittsburgh and that Matt Ryan is the #1 rated quarterback and his numbers in two playoff games are off the charts including lighting up one of the league’s better defensive teams against Seattle.

Brady may be in an even better situation however as the Atlanta defense is allowing over 25 points per game, ranking 22nd in the league in yards per play and total defense and allowing the sixth most passing yards in the NFL. New England’s overall scoring numbers might also be a bit depressed playing the first four games of the season without Brady as the 14 Patriots games with Brady featured an average increase of 11 points per game compared with the first four games of the season without him.

Atlanta also featured the worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing touchdowns on over 72 percent of opportunities and both New England and Atlanta were top 10 red zone offenses this season getting touchdowns on over 63 percent of opportunities. Touchdowns should be expected and the extreme number looks necessary in a game where ‘over’ is always a popular bet.

Super Bowl 51 Super Props
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com

When the New England Patriots trade blow with the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI this Sunday it will mark future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick's record-setting seventh appearance with the Patriots in the NFL's biggest game of the season.

It will also pit Belichick against a high-octane offense in a Super Bowl game for the first time since meeting league MVP Kurt Warner and the high-flying St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI in 2002, a game that witnessed PK Adam Vinatieri's 48-yard field goal on the final play of the game to beat the heavily favored Rams, 20-17.

Simply put, it was Belichick at his best. A 14-point underdog against league MVP QB Warner. The Rams had set a franchise record for wins in a season (14) while winning every game on the road. Billed as "The Greatest Show on Turf," St. Louis averaged nearly 31.5 points per game during the season.

It was also reminiscent of Belichick throttling down the high-octane Buffalo Bills as a defensive coordinator with the New York Giants Super Bowl XXV. Brian Blessing, a radio talk show host in Las Vegas and a former play-by-play NHL analyst for the Buffalo Sabres, coldly recalls the game.

"Many remember it as Bill Parcells shutting down the Buffalo offense. In truth it was Bill Belichick against Jim Kelly, with Belichick's nickel-and-dime defense rendering Kelly ineffective," said Blessing. "By the time Buffalo adjusted against the Giants' 2-5 defensive scheme in the second-half and began putting the ball in Thurman Thomas' hands it was too late."

Thomas finished the game with 190 yards on 20 touches. In fact, Belichick's defensive plan for the game was so good it resides today in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio.

And with it Blessing senses a similar scenario in Super Bowl LI. His top proposition bets in this year's game will center on Falcons' RB's Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman. "Expect the ball to be in their hands a majority of the game," insists Blessing.

All of which leads us to Super Bowl proposition wagering, with Super Bowl props nowadays accounting for roughly 60% of the wagering handle on the Super Bowl in the state of Nevada.

PROP ME UP

For the most part Super Bowl props are novelty wagers not involving the final score of the game.

When it comes to proposition wagering on the Super Bowl in Las Vegas, well-known sportsbook director Jay Kornegay of the Westgate SuperBook is the king of the props. This year Kornegay and his staff have rolled out over 400 props on this year's game, the most ever by a sports book in Nevada.

Why the preponderance of so many props, I asked Kornegay?

"The evolution of prop wagers really took off in 1995 because that Super Bowl was going to be boring," Kornegay said, referring to San Francisco's 49-26 victory over San Diego in which the 49ers were 18-point favorites.

"Back when the Super Bowls were blowouts, the games were boring, and the props would keep people entertained in the second half. The props became popular, and that's why we started to expand the menu. Thanks to props, every play meant something."

It has grown from a sidebar to a main attraction today.

"The props seem to grow in popularity each and every year," said Kornegay. "Guests are more comfortable wagering on them, it's a lot of fun, and the betting public has had good results betting on the props."

And that's considerable considering the 50th Super Bowl produced more than $13 million dollars in profits for sports books in Las Vegas last year, down from a reported $19.7 million in profits from Super Bowl XLIX in 2015.

COIN TOSS

By state law in Nevada, the only props Kornegay and his staff can offer up are those in which the results occur by the teams on the playing field. Exotic props such as the color of Lady Gaga's hair, or the color of the Gatorade poured over the winning coach, can be known in advance and cannot be offered as propositions.

Prop players at the Westgate SuperBook love scoring and player props. They are the fan favorites because they love the action fast and furious.

It all starts with the coin flip. It's super fast and can be bet one of two ways, either heads or tails or the conference that wins the flip.

"It seems there's the inclination by most to pick heads, and we cringe when that's the result of the coin toss," Kornegay said. "We aren't going to favor heads and move the line. We know each and every year that more people are going to bet on heads."

In its 49-year history, there have been 24 heads and 26 tails in the Super Bowl coin toss. In addition, the NFC has won 34 of 50 pregame calls, including 17 of the last 19.

MOST POPULAR PROPS

Among the most popular props this year figure to be which team scores first: Patriots -130; Falcons +100. In addition, will either team make a field goal in the first quarter: Yes -120; No +100. Will the Patriots score a touchdown in the first quarter: Yes -175, No +155. And will the Falcons score a touchdown in the first quarter: Yes -135, No: +115.

Leading the player charge is the player to score the first touchdown. This specific prop entertains many different opinions out there and, if you're right, it's a nice payoff. The leading contenders, and the odds that they score first, in this year's Super Bowl: LeGarrette Blount -170 vs. Tevin Coleman +150; Chris Hogan -130 vs. Mohamed Sanu +110.

Other additional popular head-to-head player props include the battle of quarterbacks. The Westgate lists which quarterback will throw the first TD pass: Tom Brady -130, Matt Ryan +110. Which quarterback will have the most touchdown passes: Brady -140, Ryan +120. The first pass by Ryan will be complete: Yes -240, No +200.

Total Passing Yards by Brady: 310.5; Ryan 325.5. Total Rushing Yards by Brady: 2.5; Ryan 7.5. Will Ryan score a TD? Yes: +600, No: -900. Will Brady score a TD? Yes: +500, No: -700.

Other popular player props include: Will Julian Edelman have a rushing attempt? Yes: +150; No: -170. Total rushing yards by Blount: 56.5. Will the first kickoff by Matt Bryant result in a touchback: Yes -170; No +150.

ODD PROPS

Fans also love predicting the player that will score first. Over the previous 50 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the TD brigade, scoring the first touchdown 21 times. Running backs are right on their heels with 18 initial scores (Carolina's Jonathon Stewart found the end zone first in the second quarter of last year's Super Bowl 50 showdown). Tight ends have scored the first touchdown five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players five times each.

Another odd prop is will the score be tied after 0-0? Before making a wager on this prop you must note that the decisions are determined after an extra point attempt on all touchdowns. So if the Falcons are trailing 6-0 and then score a touchdown and kick an extra point the decision would be "no" based on the 7-6 score after the change of possession.

Don't forget about a safety. It's what keep Kornegay up at nights.

This year's safety props include: Will there be a safety: Yes +600; No -900. Will there be a safety on the first half: Yes +1000: No -2500. Will there be a safety in the second half: Yes: +700: No: -1100.

And then there are the cross props, or those props from other sporting events being played Super Bowl Sunday tied to the big game. Among this year's 39 cross prop offerings: who will have more

DeAndre Jordan points or the total score of the first quarter of the Super Bowl?

Man United + Leicester yellow cards or Brady + Ryan interceptions? Tiger Woods 4th round bogeys or Ryan touchdown passes?

You get the idea.

Finally, remember this: there has never been an overtime game in the history of the Super Bowl. Could this year be the first? If you think so and you are correct you would get a nice +700 return on your intuition.

SUPER BOWL MVP

For only the 2nd time ever, Nevada sports books will be offering odds on the Super Bowl MVP.

Nevada Gaming has approved this wager where in the past it wasn't allowed due to the voting process. As such, wagering on the game's MVP figures to be hot and heavy.

These were some the opening odds on MVP contenders: From the Patriots - Brady 10/11; Blount 12/1; Edelman 18/1; Lewis 25/1. From the Falcons Ryan 8/5; Julio Jones 12/1; Freeman 25/1; Mohamed Sanu 80/1.

Before snapping the rubber band and backing Brady or Ryan as the MVP of Super Bowl 51, you might want to consider this before making your play. As outlined on these pages last week league MVP quarterbacks have struggled in Super Bowl games going 6-13 SU (Straight Up) and 5-12-2 ATS (Against The Spread) throughout the history of the Super Bowl, including 0-6 SU/ATS since 2002.

COLOR BLIND

Atlanta, the designated "home" team in this Super Bowl game, has chose to wear their home red uniforms.

The Falcons wore black jerseys in their last and only Super Bowl appearance, a 34-19 loss to the Broncos in 1999.

The team wearing white jerseys has won 11 of the last 12 Super Bowls (the Green Bay Packers wore green six years ago) and are 32-18 overall. Atlanta is the home team in Super Bowl LI and chose to wear their home red uniforms.

The Patriots are 2-1 when wearing white jerseys in the Super Bowl, with wins against the Seahawks two years ago and the Eagles in 2005. They lost to the Packers in 1997 wearing white.

It appears superstition has a role in the game, as well.

SUPER PROP BEST BETS

Like last year, prominent professional Las Vegas handicapper David Malinsky shared a couple of the props he will have an interest in this Sunday:

Will first KO by Stephen Gostkowski result in a touchback? NO +190

Belichick has been among the few coaches willing to steer away from the automatic touchback, and aim to pin the opponent. With the added prep time to break down the Falcons return schemes he may well find something that he likes here, which brings value at this price.

Total FGs Under 3.5 -130

Don't expect to see many stops because of the versatility of the offenses, both sides bringing good red zone weapons

Largest Margin of the game UNDER 16.5 +110

Because neither defense brings major matchup advantages, and both offenses are good at taking care of the ball and not turning it over, it is unlikely that we get a major scoring run by either side.

In addition, noted Las Vegas sharp and fellow Covers.com Expert Teddy Sevransky especially likes these two props:

Total Rushing Yards Dion Lewis O/U 43.5

The Falcons biggest defensive weakness is against the run. They finished the regular season with the #28 ranked rush defense, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. Seattle had success early using a power rushing game in Atlanta's playoff opener before the Seahawks fell behind and had to abandon the run. I expect New England to do the same. Lewis was a non-factor against Pittsburgh, but in the Pats previous three games, he had 47 carries for 188 yards. Expect him to be a significant part of New England's game plan on Super Bowl Sunday.

Result of the 1st Coach Challenge? Pick: PLAY OVERTURNED

Analysis: Bill Belichick is no fool. Neither is Dan Quinn, two head coaches who aren't here by accident. Both coaches value their timeouts, and neither coach wastes challenges ever! Between the two, they had a grand total of ONE coach's challenge that failed during the entire regular season. Bet that neither coach takes the red flag out of their pocket unless the replay is VERY clear that the play needs to be overturned. -130 is a cheap price to lay!

CLOSING THOUGHT

Before jumping off the high board with scoring propositions in the first quarter, and because the overwhelming Super Bowl proposition play wagered on is a 'yes' result, my personal recommendation would be 'no' scoring of a New England touchdown in the first quarter.

Amazingly, in six games, New England has yet to score a single point in the first quarter of any Super Bowl game behind head coach Bill Belichick.

Now let the games begin.

Super Bowl LI Betting Preview: Patriots vs Falcons
By Covers.com

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (+3, 58.5)

The storyline for Super Bowl LI between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots could not be more simple or intriguing - the NFL's No. 1 offense squaring off against the league's stingiest defense. Yet when quarterback Matt Ryan and Atlanta's high-voltage offense take the field on Sunday night at Houston's NRG Stadium, solving New England's defense hardly is their only challenge. There also is a wall of history on the opposing sideline in the persons of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, widely considered among the best quarterbacks and coaches of all-time.

Ryan is expected to be named the NFL's Most Valuable Player following a brilliant season in which the Falcons averaged 33.8 points, but the Patriots are making a record ninth appearance in the Super Bowl - including seven since 2001 behind the Belichick-Brady tandem. "I don't think there's much Bill and his staff hasn't seen before," Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, poised to become the next coach of the San Francisco 49ers, told reporters. "They've seen a lot of football and they do it as good as anyone." Brady is making his seventh appearance on the league's grandest stage, earning three Super Bowl MVP awards and leading New England to four championships along the way. The Patriots yielded a league-low 15.6 points per game, setting up the sixth matchup since the NFL merger in which the top-scoring offense opposes the team that permitted the fewest points (the defense has prevailed in four of the first five meetings).

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 3-point favorites immediately following the Conference Championship games two weeks ago and the spread has yet to move off that key opening number. The total hit the betting board at 58 and has crept up slightly to 58.5. View the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: NRG Stadium in Houston is a retractable domed stadium. There have been reports that the league has requested for the roof to be open if weather allows (most likely due to Lady Gaga's halftime performance which could take place partially high above field level). If the roof is, in fact, open for the game the forecast is calling for overcast skies with temperatures in the mid-70's for game time.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The biggest x-factor from a handicapping standpoint in this game is the difference in experience between the two teams and how much of a role that will play in the outcome. New England quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick are the most experienced duo in Super Bowl history, while Atlanta is one of the most inexperienced teams in Super Bowl history. However, first-year head coach Dan Quinn was in the Super Bowl two of the past three years as an assistant coach with the Seattle Seahawks, including facing the Patriots two years ago." - Covers Expert Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Currently, we have 54 percent of the handle on the Patriots. The public is fairly split on their pick and the sharps that have showed up so far are on the Falcons. The total is not as balanced as we have almost 75 percent of the action on the over. If we move off the key number of -3 it will most likely be the day of the game." Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots - WR M. Mitchell (Probable, knee), TE M. Bennett (Probable, knee), WR C. Hogan (Probable, thigh), WR D. Amendola (Probable, ankle), RB B. Bolden (probable, knee), LB D. Hightower (Probable, shoulder), DL J. Sheard (Probable, knee), K S. Gostkowski (Probable, illness), QB J. Brissett (Questionable, thumb), CB C. Jones (Questionable, knee), DB N. Ebner (Questionable, concussion), G T. Jackson (I-R, knee), TE R. Gronkowski (I-R, back), T S. Vollmer (I-R, knee), LB J. Freeny (I-R, shoulder), TE G. Scruggs (I-R, knee).

Falcons - C A. Mack (probable, ankle), WR Julio Jones (Probable, toe), DE A. Clayborn (I-R, bicep), S K. Ishmael (I-R, shoulder), TE J. Tamme (I-R, shoulder), CB D. Trufant (I-R, pectoral), DE D. Shelby (I-R, achilles), LB S. Weatherspoon (I-R, achilles), NT C. Mayes (I-R, foot), LB T. Starr (I-R, undisclosed), CB A. King (I-R, foot), WR D. Fuller (I-R, shoulder).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (16-2, 15-3 ATS, 8-10 O/U): Despite its status as the toughest defense against which to score, New England is not viewed in the same light as the dominant unit that carried Denver to last year's Super Bowl win despite limiting eight of its last nine opponents to 17 points or fewer. The Patriots rank in the middle of the pack in sacks (34) and interceptions (13), but they are No. 3 against the run, allowing 83.9 yards per contest, and eighth overall with 308.9 yards per game surrendered. While New England scored six fewer points per game than Atlanta for the season, it averaged 30 since the return of Brady, who threw 28 touchdown passes and two interceptions in 12 games and carved up Pittsburgh for 384 yards and three TDs in the AFC title game. Chris Hogan had a breakout game with nine catches for 180 yards and two scores versus the Steelers, while Julian Edelman recorded a team-high 98 receptions and LeGarrette Blount registered an NFL-leading 18 rushing touchdowns during the regular season.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (13-5, 12-6 ATS, 15-2-1 O/U): Ryan rebounded from a pedestrian 2015 campaign with a spectacular season, setting career highs in passer rating (117.1), yards (4,944), completion percentage (69.9) and touchdowns (38) while tossing only seven interceptions. Ryan was superb in playoff routs of Seattle and Green Bay (730 yards, seven TDs, zero INTs) and has a near-unstoppable weapon in wideout Julio Jones, who despite battling injuries still wracked up 1,409 yards in receiving and riddled the Packers by making nine catches for 180 yards and two scores in the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons also feature a strong 1-2 punch in the backfield, with the tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combining for 19 rushing touchdowns while adding 85 catches and five scores through the air. Linebacker Vic Beasley registered 15.5 sacks to lead an improved defense that allowed 25.4 points per game for the season, although it held six of its last eight opponents to 21 or fewer.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 playoff games.
* Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 playoff games.
* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of bettors are siding with the underdog Atlanta Falcons. As for the total, 70 percent of wagers from users are on the Over.