Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, January 25, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
Update - Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2018 - 8:15 p.m. ET
The first sonic boom Super Bowl bet heard across Las Vegas took place Wednesday afternoon at MGM Resorts where VP of sports book operations Jay Rood confirmed a multi-million dollar wager was placed on the Eagles at +5.5 causing the chain of 10 books on the Las Vegas strip to bypass -5 altogether and go straight to Patriots -4.5, which is the lowest number in town.
The massive wager give MGM books lots of wiggle room this early to balance things out in the Super Bowl betting season and it's also a signal that a record setting handle could be had in Nevada for the third straight Super Bowl.
Update - Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2018 - 5:45 p.m. ET
A couple of Las Vegas sports books made a move on the Super Bowl 52 line from Patriots -5.5 down to -5 as Eagles money has been showing, a move more justified due to respected off-shore book 5Dimes.eu dropping to -4.5 on Tuesday night. The South Point dropped to -5 on Wednesday morning, and CG Technology and Caesars Palace went to -5 on Wednesday afternoon.
Limits are higher now and it takes a lot to move the number, but a popular bookmaking goal is also to get to the right number as soon as possible before the millions in wagers is dropped down. The Westgate Las SuperBook, Boyd Gaming, Wynn Resorts and Stratosphere are all at -5.5 and MGM Resorts is at -5.5 EVEN showing they're long at +5.5 at -110 and -115 with Philly, but they don't want to get off that number anytime soon.
Wynn Resorts sports book director John Avello opened the Patriots -6.5, the highest number in town and found immediate takers.
"That was my number," Avello said Wednesday afternoon. "We opened it really early like when the NFC Championship game was still in the third quarter and we immediately got sharp action with several five-figure wagers. They all made multiple wagers and then I went to -6.5 (-105) and we took another couple bets taking the Eagles, around $20,000 each before going to -5.5."
When Avello was asked if his plan was to get to the right number quickly or just let the money push him, he laughed and said "the only right number is the number after the result is posted."
There's lots of different strategies appled early in the bookmaking game. Eventually, they'll all be pushed to the same number, but Avello believes he'll see more of what he's been seeing already.
"People always love to bet the underdog in the Super Bowl, and there's already lots of people believing the Eagles can win after seeing them win impressively last week," said Avello. "But my concern with the Eagles and why I opened high with the Patriots is the quarterback. Nick Foles is no rookie and he's been around and had some success in the NFL, but this is an entirely new stage for him."
There's definitely some validity to Avello being skeptical of Nick Foles beating Tom Brady as it relates to experience on the biggest stage.
Up north in Reno, where the betting patterns are a little different from Las Vegas, the Atlantis sports book erased the final -6 in the state on Tuesday evening and are currently at -5.5.
The best money-line in town if looking for the Eagles is offered at Wynn Resorts at +190 and the cheapest price on the Patriots is -200 at the Westgate, Station Casinos and Golden Nugget.
"We're getting some nibbles at +190, but we're fine for now," Avello said of his city-best money-line price.
If liking the Eagles to win, you may want to get to the Wynn and get some of that +190 before liability forces a move. If looking to bet the Patriots to win straight up, no points, you may want to hold off a while and wait for it to drop more.
I'll have more Super Bowl updates from Las Vegas Thursday.
Update - Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2018 - 3:30 p.m. ET
It's just the beginning of two weeks of Super Bowl hype in Las Vegas, but each day is a blast with something happening around town and I'm here to share some daily tidbits from sports books across the state. The main questions I'll be asking along the way is where the number is going, will a state record for win and handle happen, who will the books eventually be rooting for and who do they want to be rooting for. And then of course, a bunch of other odd Super Bowl nuggets along the way.
After almost two days of wagering, Las Vegas books are sitting steady between the Patriots being -5.5 to -5 after a few opened -6 (South Point) and -6.5 (Wynn Resorts) on Sunday. The largest number currently in the state is up north at Marc Nelson's Atlantis sports book where he's still dealing Patriots -6 -105. However, Nelson gave indication he would be dropping the number soon as he's almost hit his threshold of desired risk at this early juncture. South Point sports book director Chris Andrews likes where he's at right now.
"It's nice having dead numbers on the game," said Andrews, who is now at -5.5. "We opened -6 and I don't think we'll get there again, but I also don't think we'll get down to -4. We're a little high on the plus side (Eagles) right now."
The total is offering bettors plenty to choose from, kind of like a buffet or sorts, something for everyone. If looking to bet Under, the Stratosphere, Station Casinos, William Hill and Boyd Gaming are all set high at 48.5 while the low of 47.5 is at the Westgate SuperBook, CG Technology and MGM Resorts. The four chain of books using 48.5 are all popular local books with the majority of their clients betting Over, so with it being the biggest game of the year they're just prepping for what they expect down the road and are willing to bank larger Under money now for the long haul.
The South Point was sitting right in the middle at 48 with their total, but Andrews raised it to 48.5 during our conversation."It's been all Over so far, and the parlay build-up on both sides to the Over is getting larger by the minute," he said.
Nevada comes off a Super Bowl record $138.5 million handled last season in the Patriots 34-28 overtime win against the Falcons, the second year in a row a state record was set. The books won $10.9 million (7.9 percent) on the game despite the popular favorite (-3) and Over (57) cashing, as well as the all-way, four-way teaser.
The massive amount of props offered around town gave the books so many more ways to win away from just the side and total. A favorite and Over and all-way teaser for any regular isolated game on Sunday or Monday night is a certain huge loss for the books, but bettors spread their allotted bankrolls out with all the fun Super Bowl props which helps the books absorb a public beat down easier.
Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay is the pioneer for props as we know it in Las Vegas and he offers over 300 props with some involving other sports happening Super Bowl weekend. He says that 60 percent of his overall Super Bowl wagers come from the props, which is the most weighted in the state where most books are now at around 60 percent of overall action still coming on the side and total. By the way, Kornegay says his props will open Thursday night at 5:00 p.m. PT and the must-have prop booklet of sheets stapled together will be available Friday afternoon.
Another reason for Nevada Super Bowl handle setting a record the past two seasons is because almost every book offers in-progress wagering and has phone wagering which keeps the money churning through despite the game starting.
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The all-time Nevada record for Super Bowl win happened after the 2014 season when the Seahawks buried the Broncos, 43-8, at a chilly MetLife Stadium. The state wrote a then record $119.4 million and won $19.6 million (16.5 percent hold). A good old fashion blowout is good for business and Denver (-2.5) was a popular wager which translated the same way on props.
SUPER BOWL FUTURE RISK
"We would have liked the Vikings to make it because they were our biggest win, but our futures are looking good," said Andrews. "We win a good amount to both teams."
EARLY PROP ACTION
The South Point posted 12 props on Sunday night and immediately got action on a couple of them. "One guy came in and laid $14,000 on NO SAFETY at -700 and then he laid $15,000 on NO OVERTIME at -750. We're at -900 on each now," said Andrews. The first overtime in Super Bowl history happened last season and the safety has made a few appearances in recent years.
SUPER BOWL TRENDS
The favorites always seemed to win and cover going 20-10-1 against the spread in the first 31 Super Bowls. The 1980s were brutal blowouts with the AFC taking a beating, but something happened when the Broncos finally won a Super Bowl as 11-point underdogs against the Packers after the 1998 season. It changed the tide.
Underdogs have now gone 12-4 ATS in the last 16 Super Bowls, starting with the Patriots 20-17 win against the Rams as 14-point dogs after the 2002 season. The underdog has won seven of the past 10 Super Bowls outright, including two wins by the Giants over the Patriots.
Two of the past three Super Bowls have seen all-way teasers cash -- both sides, both totals. We can count on good games in the Super Bowl now and the NFL spread is the most sound rating of any sport which means getting six-points to the side and total offers nice value on a two-teamer. The Patriots six-point overtime win last season was their largest margin of victory in five Super Bowl wins engineered by Brady and Bill Belichick.
ROB GRONKOWSKI WORTH?
The Jaguars had the Patriots exactly where they wanted them in Sunday's AFC Championship and got a bonus when Tom Brady's go-to tight-end got a concussion and missed the second half. That's Brady's crutch, and it if weren't for some horrendous fourth-quarter play-calling and clock management, we'd be talking about the Jags right now in their first Super Bowl. With two weeks before game time, we all expect Gronkowski to play in the Super Bowl, but his worth is up to 1.5-points. If for whatever reason he can't play there will be rapid adjustments on the number all over the state.
SOUTH POINT SUPER BOWL PARTIES
The South Point has two massive parties planned upstairs in their banquet area, one in their Showroom and then they have hundreds of seats inside their sports book and lounge. They also have two extra-large bars seating up to a hundred people each and another lounge by the race book that can accommodate another 200 partiers. There's a little something for everyone and it's a great place to hang out for a few hours for the other amenities where owner Michael Gaughan doesn't gouge his guests. He gives his customers cheap beer prices and great food on the cheap in all of his restaurants.
Something to also keep an eye out for is who is writing your bet ticket when going to the counter. It's not unusual to see the owner, Michael Gaughan himself punching tickets, or his sons, one of which is NASCAR driver Brendan Gaughan who will be driving in the Daytona 500 again this season. With all the parties located around the casino and bet stations placed within, the sports book labor gets a little thin so it's all hands on deck.
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com