Coaching Analysis
By Chris David
Is it the players or the coach?
A question often asked in every pro sport and one that is always debated, especially in pro football and it’s usually the quarterback versus the coach.
This past week, New England’s Bill Belichick won Coach of the Year honors, deservingly. It was his third time receiving the award but you wonder if we would even be talking about him if it wasn’t for his quarterback Tom Brady, who was just named the league’s Most Valuable Player.
Prior to having Brady under center, Belichick went 36-44 with the Cleveland Browns. In his first year at New England without Brady, he posted a 5-11 mark. To his defense, his squad did go 10-5 in the 2008 season after Brady got hurt with a knee injury in Week 1.
Super Bowl XLV will feature Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy going head-to-head against Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin and both head coaches have great gunslingers.
McCarthy has an extra year under his belt as a head coach and he’s done well with Green Bay, producing a 52-34 straight up and 51-33-2 (61%) against the spread record. In the playoffs, he’s gone 4-2 both SU and ATS. A lot of folks forget but this could easily be the second trip to the Super Bowl for McCarthy but a quarterback named Brett Favre screwed up against the N.Y. Giants (20-23) in the 2007 NFC Championship.
Tomlin will be making his second go ‘round in the big game and he’s hoping to hoist the hardware again as well. He’s the youngest head coach to win a Super Bowl and his overall record (48-22 SU, 37-31-2 ATS) in Pittsburgh is impressive or is it? Tomlin definitely stepped into a great position when Bill Cowher parted ways with the franchise and he’s taken a lot of criticism for winning with his players. One of those critics is VegasInsider.com handicapper Judd Hall, who isn’t buying into the hype.
“I can’t deny Mike Tomlin’s success as a head coach, but he’s nothing more than a poor man’s Barry Switzer. Almost anyone could have succeeded Bill Cowher with that talent and guided them to a Super Bowl championship. Plus, Tomlin has made his playoff wins a lot closer than they needed to be with his suspect decision making. Who can forget him not going for it on fourth-and-goal on the opening drive of Super Bowl XLIII? And had it not been for Ben Roethlisberger’s heroics in the final minutes of the win against Arizona, that easily could have been the greatest choke job of any championship game in history,” explained Hall.
Looking at Hall’s comments, they’re more than fair. Tomlin lost his first playoff game in his debut season at home to Jacksonville (29-31). And for those of you that forgot, Pittsburgh trailed 28-10 heading into the fourth quarter before Big Ben and the defense made a late run. Unfortunately for the Steelers, they fell short and you could look at Tomlin’s questionable play-calling, especially on a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter. Play-by-Play
His experience definitely showed in the loss to the Jaguars but he’s notched a perfect 5-0 record in the postseason since. Only one of those wins was by more than double digits but that doesn’t matter this Sunday, since Tomlin is listed as an underdog. You might want to make a note that the last time Tomlin caught points in a playoff game was the aforementioned loss to Jacksonville and they covered as a three-point home ‘dog.
McCarthy doesn’t have the same Super Bowl experience as Tomlin but what he does have is a knack for winning off rest. Green Bay’s coach has gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS after a week off, which includes a 31-3 road victory over Minnesota this season.
Unlike other professional sports, this is a one-and-done game. You get no second chances and with that being said, we feel Tomlin’s postseason luck runs out.
Edge: Green Bay