Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 1/21/19
Super Bowl 53 - New England vs. Los Angles Rams (CBS, 6:30 p.m. ET)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia (Sunday, Feb. 3, 2019)
After watching the home team dominate the conference championships for the last five seasons with a 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread record, the visitors finally struck back this postseason but it wasn’t easy.
The Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots both captured overtime wins on the road against the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs respectively.
The Rams and Patriots both cashed tickets as three-point road underdogs and they will now square off in Super Bowl III at Mercedes-Benz Stadium from Atlanta, Georgia on Feb. 3, 2019.
Including those outcomes, road teams and underdogs went 7-3 both SU and ATS in this year’s postseason. Dating back to last season, underdogs are now 17-4 against the spread in the NFL postseason.
Prior to Week 1, New England was listed as a 6/1 betting choice to win Super Bowl 53 at the SuperBook while the Rams had 10/1 odds.
Line Movements:
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Los Angles as a one-point favorite with a total of 58. Soon after the opener was sent out, the line flipped to Patriots -1 ½.
BookMaker.eu, a major global betting shop, sent out the Rams at -1 ½ and they adjusted as well. New England is now sitting -1 ½.
William Hill properties and the South Point in Las Vegas both have New England listed -2 as of 11:00 p.m. ET on Sunday.
One book in Las Vegas, Wynn Resorts, is sticking low at pick 'em and expecting more Rams money late while respecting future risk according to Micah Roberts of VegasInsider.com.
The total is holding steady at 58 with a couple books going to 59.
Follow all the line movements for every major Las Vegas and Global sportsbook.
Betting Notes:
The Rams and Patriots met in the 2016 regular season from Foxboro and New England captured a 26-10 win over as a 13-point home favorite while the ‘under’ (44 ½) connected.
Including that win, New England has won five straight encounters versus the Rams which includes a 20-17 upset in Super Bowl XXXVI from New Orleans as a 14-point underdog.
The Patriots went 4-5 on the road this season, which includes Sunday's 37-31 overtime win against Kansas City in the AFC Championship. New England went 2-0 versus playoff teams on the road, the decision versus KC and it also defeated the Bears 38-31 from Soldier Field. The 'over' cashed in both games.
The Rams improved to 7-2 on the road with their 26-23 overtime win over New Orleans from the Superdome in the NFC Championship. Los Angeles was 2-2 against playoff teams on the road.
Versus NFC teams, New England went 3-1 this season. The lone loss took place in Week 3 when the Patriots dropped a 26-10 decision to Detroit at Ford Field.
Los Angeles went 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS against AFC foes this season behind an offense that averaged 36.3 points per game in those wins.
Super Bowl Betting Notes:
New England owns a 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS record in Super Bowls, while going 1-5 ATS in the favorite role. The only cover as a 'chalk' came in their 34-28 overtime triumph over the Falcons as three-point favorites in Super Bowl 51 from Houston.
Last February the Patriots lost Super Bowl 52 to the Philadelphia Eagles, 41-33.
Quarterback Tom Brady is playing in his ninth Super Bowl, posting a 5-3 SU and 3-4 ATS record. This will be his third straight trip to the finale.
The Rams defeated the Tennessee Titans 23-16 in Super Bowl 34 before losing to the Patriots two years later.
St. Louis was the home of the Rams for both those contests. The Los Angeles Rams made one appearance in the Super Bowl, the 14th installment from Pasadena, California. The Rams dropped a 31-19 decision to the Steelers as 10 ½-point underdogs.
The NFC and AFC have split the last 10 Super Bowls, while the 'over' is 7-3 during this span.
January 21, 2019
By Micah Roberts
For the first time ever in the same season, the NFC and AFC Championships games ended in overtime and both three-point road underdogs won outright paying out at 5.4-to-1 if choosing the Rams and Patriots on a money-line parlay. The results for the Las Vegas sports books were mixed due to that combination, but the onslaught of early action on the Super Bowl has bettors siding with the Patriots for Super Bowl 53 on Feb. 3.
"The day ended well, a good day," said Wynn Las Vegas sports book director Doug Castaneda of the Rams 26-23 win at New Orleans (-3) and the Patriots 37-31 win at Kansas City (-3). "The first half wagers of both games turned out to be almost as big as the game itself. We lost in the first game and got it back later in the second game. I can't stress how big the second game was. It wasn't as big a win as the loss was which included several lingering parlays tied into the NHL from a player Thursday, Friday and Saturday."
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and South Point both closed the Chiefs at -3.5 after being -3 for most of the week. The only book to bounce between -3 and -3.5 all week was the South Point because they use exclusively flat numbers. For the South Point, both championship games had book director Chris Andrews walking the tightrope of each game that favorites appeared to be headed for three-point wins opening up sided opportunities. Andrews said all the activity on -3, +3 of each game produced a great day because the number didn't land.
For some other books, it wasn't so good or just flat or a small win.
While Championship Sunday had its twists and turn for the house such as 7-point teasers going 4-0 in the Rams-Saints game and 3-1 in the Patriots-Chiefs game, the big betting flurry of the day happened after the Patriots win when the Super Bowl line was posted pick 'em at most bet shops.
"We're taking a stand," said Castaneda of their opening Super Bowl number with the Rams -1. "After the initial appearance of what just happened on Sunday, I think we're going to see more Rams money closer to kickoff so we're taking a stand early expecting an abundance of Rams action closer kickoff. I think the public will be true to who they loved at the beginning of the season with the Rams in futures plays and betting patterns and also Sean McVay's offensive scheme's should have them on the Rams to win it."
The Wynn reached their threshold fast and moved with the money to pick 'em fast and then eventually reached another threshold to force them to -1.5 by the end of Sunday night.
William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich, who say they won small on Sunday, speculates the Super Bowl will get to Patriots -3 at his books across the county after opening pick 'em and getting to Patriots -2.5 within 50 minutes. He also thinks Nevada handle will surpass the state record $158 million set last year.
"I thought that any of the four teams playing had the ability to set the handle record for the fourth straight year," said Bogdanovich.
MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood would be more certain about setting a record had a different match-up occurred.
"I think the Rams and Chiefs would have easily set the (Nevada Super Bowl) record, but this should be close," said Rood.
Last year there was a bettor who laid down multiple $1 million wagers in cash out of gym bag at various books -- many at MGM books -- to help increase the record-setting handle, but Rood hasn't seen the mystery man since a UFC event in August. He's also looking good in their massive Super Bowl futures pool, which is the largest amount handled of any chain of books in the state.
"It's a good futures win with both teams winning the conference," said Rood who said they had loads of Saints future risk due to risk at their Mississippi book. "Our best Super Bowl future result is the Patriots and the Rams are close."
For bettors everywhere, the main concern this week will be when to pull the trigger on a wager. Only 0.5 percent of the overall action has been seen. The books are just hoping to get to the right number without pushing too far into treacherous areas of the most key number in the NFL, the dreaded -3 in the Super Bowl.
But this week also provides a huge opportunity for bettors to middle the props playing numbers books post against each other. Big middles-galore, usually, on prices and numbers.
"Adam (Pullen) and I are going to set the props template on Monday, then set the numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday and open for wagering on Thursday, " said Bogdanovich. "And I will say you can count on one hand the amount of (Nevada) books that will be using 20-cent splits on our Super Bowl props."
Pullen is the wizard of odds and can almost calculate any prop in his head without referring to any charts. Oxford boat race, South American soccer leagues, golf, or tennis; it doesn't matter. Pullen is dialed in, but it's still the market that forces plays on numbers. he may be right, but if some other book has Todd Gurley rushing yards 7-yards cheaper, he'll get played blindly on the Under while the sharp bettor plays Over at the other shop. Right and wrong isn't so simple.
William Hill books are expected to have over 300 different propositions by the time the game kicks off. The Superbook also posts over 300 props at 20-cent splits as well and they'll be out Thursday night as well.
NFL Opening Line Report Super Bowl LIII
Date 21st Jan 2019
Adam Burke
The Conference Championship Weekend didn’t lack drama. Both games went to overtime for the first time in NFL history. Over bettors were rewarded in the Patriots vs. Chiefs game with a 38-point fourth quarter. Dog bettors were rewarded with two money line upsets.
And, of course, there was the officiating, which was egregious and awful in both games. So was the coaching. It was an interesting day for NFL fans and bettors overall. While both losers were heavily impacted by the men in stripes, both losers also blew leads and made some questionable decisions.
After all the dust settled, we were left with the Los Angeles Rams and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII. Now we’ll have two weeks for this line to be bet into and a collection of prop betting opportunities to emerge.
For the final time during the 2018 NFL season, here is the Opening Line Report:
New England (-2, 58) vs. LA Rams – The Saints would have had a little bit of a hidden home field advantage had they advanced to Atlanta, but this is a neutral-site game for all intents and purposes. A case could be made that the Patriots have maybe a half-point of HFA because of the easier travel from Boston to Atlanta and, quite frankly, because they have a much larger, more established fan base. The Rams just relocated to Los Angeles three years ago after spending 21 seasons in St. Louis.
Even though many in LA have the money and capability to fly to Atlanta, it will probably be a slightly New England crowd. Unbiased observers will gravitate towards the Rams, so that may balance things out a little bit.
In any event, money hit the board on New England rather quickly. The books that opened PK swung to the Patriots side. The books that opened the Patriots a small favorite were forced to add to the line. The total bounced around 57.5 and 58 before mostly settling 58. Last year’s game featured the Patriots favored by 5.5 and a total in the upper 40s, for what it’s worth.
The offshore market and the Las Vegas market are two very different entities. Keep in mind that a lot of weekend warriors go from the LA area to Las Vegas, so the sportsbooks have to be wary of their exposure on the Rams and on the Rams money line in particular. The offshore market doesn’t have to worry about that nearly as much, so we should see the offshores a little bit higher than Vegas over the next two weeks from a consensus standpoint.
It wasn’t surprising to see the Belichick and Brady tandem take on money right away. For one thing, that trust factor looms large in a game like this. For another thing, many believe that the Rams don’t deserve to be here after the pass interference penalty that wasn’t. A lot of those same people will ignore the ridiculously weak roughing the passer call on the Chiefs that allowed the Patriots to score in the fourth quarter. Also, if Dee Ford doesn’t line up in the neutral zone, Tom Brady’s pick likely changes the outcome of that game.
For yet another thing, I mean, come on. It’s second-year quarterback Jared Goff against the GOAT and the Hooded GOAT. How can you bet against that? We’ll see if that sentiment continues in the betting market as we get closer to kickoff.
This is a really unique NFL betting situation with the line up for two weeks before the actual game. This is more like Week 1. We’ve seen some initial waves of money and the market should settle in for several days. Sportsbooks will take hits here and there, but because limits are still lower early in the process, sharp bettors aren’t going to make their feelings entirely known. That will come next week.
Also, prop bets will spread some of the exposure and will be the market most sharp bettors look to take advantage of for the big game.
Similarly, the total will probably sit and marinate for a while. There is no reason to jump on the total all that quickly. My best guess here is that the under will be the preferred sharp side. Last year’s Super Bowl ended 41-33 and Super Bowl LI went over the highest-ever total of 57 with Brady’s furious second-half comeback. That should entice some over money from public bettors, but I would expect a historical outlier such as this to see sharp under money.
Knowing when to enter the market can be a little bit tricky with a game like this. There really isn’t any reason to do anything crazy right now. Let the line settle and let bettors start to take some whacks at it. If you like New England, -3 probably won’t be coming anytime soon. If you like the Rams, you’ll be able to get the current number or better next week, but you will want to try and extract as much value on the money line as you can before gamblers bump that plus-money price down.
For me, I’d recommend just waiting on props. Regardless of what you do for the big game, thanks for reading these all season and good luck on Super Bowl LIII!
Six costly mistakes NFL fans make when betting the Super Bowl odds
Jason Logan
Betting the Big Game?
Of course you are. It’s the Super Bowl. What a stupid question.
But massive matchups like the Super Bowl breed stupidity, especially when it comes to sports bettors. It doesn’t matter if you’re a first-time gambler or a seasoned sharp: the Super Bowl can make even the most disciplined bettor lose their god damn mind.
There’s two weeks before the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots showdown in Atlanta on February 3. That’s more than enough time to completely tank your Super Bowl bets. It’s also plenty of time to heed these warnings.
You bet too early/too late
If you’ve been paying attention to the early line moves for Super Bowl LIII, you’ve seen the Patriots go off at anything from +1 to -1.5, after a remarkable comeback and overtime win against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship.
If you’re a Pats backer and you didn’t get down on that +1 spread, you may have missed your chance. Maybe you jumped the gun and took Los Angeles -1 and watched free points pass you by.
First off, let those odds go, ‘cause man they’re gone. Second, breathe. Third, realize that there are two weeks of wagering to be had on this game and that 98 percent of the money doesn’t come in until the 48 hours before game time. That means movement is coming. Fourth, get an opinion and plan of attack. Know what you realistically want for a line and how much you want to pay for it.
Patriots fans, you may want to grab the -1 or -1.5 on your beloved team now. Books took early money on Belichick's boys and New England is the most public team in all of football - maybe in all of sports betting - so it may not get any better than giving this short spread. Rams backers, you may want to wait out that movement and see if you can get a something bigger before showtime.
There has been some very aggressive line movement in recent Super Bowls. So hold tight, you might get what you want. That said, don’t let a solid number pass you by.
Waiting out a line move (I think that's a Bob Seger song...) that may never come could have you scrambling on Super Sunday and playing an over-juiced number or grabbing a spread you’re not crazy about.
Prop contradictions
The best plan of attack for wagering on Super Bowl props is to start with the spread and total, and then work backwards. Figure out how the game will play out. If you have Los Angeles to cover, then who and what will get it there.
If you like the Under, make sure your prop plays coincide with those wagers. That means taking the Under in passing props, leaning toward the Over in rushing props and having a few more “No” than “Yes” bets.
The worst thing you can do is have props that go against each other in the Super Bowl.
If you think Tom Brady lights the Rams up for massive gains, then don’t load up on the Over in the Patriots’ rushing yard props.
Believe L.A. will slow the pace and eat up time of possession with a run-heavy playbook? You may want to shy away from Brandin Cooks' Over on total receptions prop and instead think Over for how many carries Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson will have.
Didn’t pay attention to prices
One of the worst rookie mistakes a new bettor can muff is not paying attention to the juice attached to each wager. And especially come Super Bowl time, when you’re not just limited to a side and total, bettors can easily overpay for props and alternative wagers.
Certain props can hold a hefty price tag, either set that way to draw action or adjusted after the betting market has had its say. Professional handicappers are always wary of high-priced moneyline favorites in any sport, setting a limit to just how much they’ll put down. Some pros won’t pay more than -150 for a bet and it may be a rule you integrate into your Super Bowl capping.
On top of some extremely juiced prop prices, books limit the amount you can wager on these alternative bets. So, throwing down $20 on a -170 prop bet is only going to net you like $12 in profit. And playing vig-heavy props can turn a winning record into a loss. Nothing stings like going 5-3 on your bets and still ending up in the red.
Chasing
In a game as big as the Super Bowl, bettors can panic if things aren’t going according to plan by the time they start setting up the halftime show stage. That can often lead to people chasing their first-half prop losses and going against what they so intensely handicapped for the past two weeks.
Halftime lines hold value, as do in-game live betting odds, if you have a strong opinion. Many times, when a game didn’t play to the oddsmakers’ expectations in the first two quarters – high total had low-scoring first half or favorite underperformed – things will correct themselves in the second half.
But, when faced with the shame of a Super Bowl loss, some bettors will go against their existing bets just to have some black ink on the board. If they took the Over, and the halftime score is 10-7, they pull the trigger on the second-half Under. If they laid the favorite, and the chalk is getting beat up through two frames, then side with the underdog.
As mentioned, these abnormalities often even out and bettors can quickly wipe out a winning bet – that was perfectly handicapped – with a horrific halftime wager or live bet placed in sheer panic.
Too much media
Trust your instincts when it comes to the Super Bowl line. If you’ve watched the NFL intensely each week since the preseason and haven’t missed a minute of playoff action, you already have a firm grip on the two Super Bowl teams and how things should shake down.
If your knee-jerk reaction was “Patriots -1 is easy money”, then it probably is. But for the next two weeks, the media is going to break down this game and put it back together 100 times. You will second guess your wager probably just as much.
Like a promoter hyping up a title fight, the Super Bowl will be sold as the matchup of all matchups. Both sides will present excellent reasons why they’ll win. The public consensus will flip flop like fish. Sharps will be on the Patriots one day and the Rams the next. Stat heads will throw trends and numbers at you that go all the way to the invention of the forward pass.
And in the end, what was supposed to be a tightly-contested game with a field-goal spread is a 22-0 wash at halftime. So much for all the media hype.
Stick to your guns. First instincts are usually the right ones. Don’t over-soak your brain in two weeks’ worth of media mush. Pick and choose who you listen to, or get your bets down and tune out the Big Game buzz until kickoff like avoiding Game of Thrones spoilers. I'm only on Season 2, damn it!
You sucked all the fun out of it
If you’re a fan of the Patriots or Rams – you’ve earned the right to be a little uptight for this game. I would be if my team was playing in the Super Bowl. But for the rest of us losers, who are left to just bet on the Big Game, don’t ruin what is the final football game that matters until September.
Some guys think “Big Game” equals big bets. If you’ve been stashing your nickels away for a big-ass betting bonanza on Super Bowl Sunday, then have at it – but only if it’s within your means. Nothing takes the fun out of watching the Super Bowl like wondering how you’ll pay the rent after a disastrous interception in the end zone.
And if you’re watching the game with friends or even in a sports bar around strangers, keep your rage in check. There’s no need to start dropping f-bombs and getting your Tom Brady Underoos in a bunch because you didn’t nail that coin flip bet.
Sports betting is entertainment. And there’s no bigger show than the Super Bowl. Enjoy the game, win or lose.
By: Brandon DuBreuil
Backfield committee in New England
The Rams aren’t the only ones with backfield questions leading up to the Super Bowl. Heading into the AFC Championship Game, it seemed fairly straightforward as Sony Michel was handling the early-down work and James White was the third-down/receiving back. But then Rex Burkhead made his presence known against the Chiefs, scoring a touchdown with 39 seconds remaining in regulation and then, of course, the 2-yard game-winning score in overtime.
In the end, the three Patriots backs received similar playing time, with Michel getting 34 snaps, White 33, and Burkhead 30. Michel dominated touches with 29 carries for 113 yards and two scores. Burkhead had 12 carries and four receptions, while White had six rushes and four catches.
What was really interesting was that it was Burkhead on the field when it mattered most: Late in the fourth in the two-minute drill with the Pats down four, and then again in overtime. This could have been because Michel and White were tired. The Patriots wound up playing 97 offensive snaps, which was the highest number they’ve played since 2001. Having Burkhead out there late in the game meant a fresh running back was on the field against a defensive side that was gassed. Michel’s 29 carries were a season-high — his next highest was 25 back in Week 4 — and New England’s coaching staff obviously didn’t want to push it into the 30s.
Digging into the snap-count numbers above makes it pretty clear why Burkhead suddenly became the No. 1 back late against the Chiefs. Michel is still the top dog and we’re expecting him to get the vast majority of the carries early on in the Super Bowl. We’ll dig into his rushing yards total as the Super Bowl gets closer but, for now, backing Michel to go Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns is a smart bet.
Pats controlling the clock
One thing that the playoffs have taught us is that the Patriots want to play slowly and methodically, at least early on. In the Divisional Round, they took the opening kickoff and ran 14 plays for 83 yards in 7:11 for a touchdown. In the AFC Championship Game, they one-upped themselves by taking 8:05 off the clock during a 15-play, 80-yard touchdown drive.
These marathon drives have left the opposing offenses standing around for a long time to begin the games and this approach has worked — the Chargers mustered just seven first-half points in the Divisional Round, while the Chiefs were shut out last week.
The Rams, meanwhile, have been slow starters so far in the playoffs, scoring three points in the first quarter against Dallas in the Divisional Round before being shut out in the first quarter last week at New Orleans. L.A. has rebounded with points in the second quarter, but the first-half total still hit Under 27.5 in both.
The first-half total for Super Bowl LIII opened at 28 and has ticked down to 27.5 at some sportsbooks, so it might be the right time to make this bet if you’re backing the above analysis: Take the Under 27.5 for the first-half total.
Rams bettors might want to wait
If you’re looking to bet on the Rams for Super Bowl LIII, you might want to hold off as it’s looking more and more likely that the line will move to Rams +3. In fact, it happened yesterday at Las Vegas’ South Point sportsbook:
Well, what happened is that Rams money flooded in at +3 and 17 minutes later the South Point had moved the line back to Patriots -2.5.
Is getting that extra half-point that important? Well, yes. Since 2002, the year the Patriots began this dynasty with a Super Bowl win over the St. Louis Rams, the margin of victory in the Super Bowl has been three on five occasions — by far the most common margin of victory. In fact, the Patriots were involved in four of the five games where the margin landed right on three.
There is, of course, two ways to look at the above info: If you’re looking to back the Rams, it might be smart to wait — but make sure you pounce on Rams +3 when you see it as it might not last long. If you’re planning to bet on New England, now might be the time to place your wager before the line moves to Patriots -3.
By: Brandon DuBreuil
PATS’ EARLY SUCCESS
Yesterday, we talked at length about what New England has been doing early in games during this year’s playoffs: Taking the kickoff and putting together ridiculously long touchdown drives. In the Divisional Round, the Pats took 7:11 off the clock on their first drive and last week they drove for 8:05 before punching it in. In both of these games, New England led by seven points after the first quarter.
In betting the first quarter, the coin toss obviously comes into play. If a team gets the ball first, it’s going to likely have more possessions (and therefore more chances to score) than the opponent. Most teams defer when they win the coin toss, as the Rams did last week, but Bill Belichick bucked that trend two weeks ago when he elected to receive the ball against the Chargers (last week, the Chargers won and chose to defer). In fact, it seems oddsmakers are even expecting the Patriots to elect to receive the ball if they win the coin toss as they’ve set odds even at whether a team will receive or defer if they win the coin toss.
So, if the Rams are expected to defer and if the Patriots are expected to receive the ball, then there’s a pretty good chance that New England will start the game with the ball. That would also give them a pretty good chance of getting at least two possessions to L.A.’s one in the first quarter. Yes, the Patriots struggle historically in the first quarter in the Super Bowl with just three total points in eight games. But we prefer the recent trend where the Pats have won the first quarter in both playoff games this season. In fact, the Patriots’ moneyline in the first quarter is 6-0-2 in New England’s last eight games. The Rams, meanwhile, have lost the first quarter in both playoff games this season. We like the idea of the Patriots jumping out to an early lead in Super Bowl LIII and we’re taking New England’s first-quarter moneyline.
GOING BACK TO THE WOODS
Admittedly, we had a bad week in trying to predict the Rams’ wide receivers. We missed the Over for Robert Woods’ receiving yards total of 75.5 and the Under for Brandin Cooks receiving yards total of 70.5 as Woods had a 6-33 line and Cooks went off for 7-107. We weren’t completely wrong in our pre-game analysis, however, as Woods actually had 10 targets to Cooks’ eight. But Woods had an average of 5.5 yards per reception and a long of just 16 yards, while Cooks’ average was 15.3 with a long of 36.
We talked at length last week about how Bill Belichick usually finds a way to shut down the opponent’s top offensive threat(s). That was in full effect last week as the Patriots held Travis Kelce to three catches for 23 yards and Tyreek Hill to one catch for 42 yards. But who will Belichick focus on this week? Well, it would make sense that his attention will first go to Cooks, especially since he played in New England last season. The Patriots know Cooks’ moves and tendencies, and likely how to shut him down.
Another factor to consider is that Rams coach Sean McVay will likely want to get his young quarterback comfortable early on in what is obviously the biggest game of his career. Throwing downfield to Cooks is not how you get your quarterback in a rhythm — but throwing safe, short completions to Woods is. This happened in the NFC Championship Game as three of Goff’s first four passes were targeted to Woods. We see this happening again early in the Super Bowl and we’re taking the Over 5.5 for Woods’ receptions total.
AVOIDING AARON
Aaron Donald is, along with Khalil Mack, one of the most valuable defensive players in all of football. The Rams’ interior stud led the league with a franchise-record 20.5 sacks this season for an NFL-record -183.5 yards. Not surprisingly, he also led the NFL in tackles for a loss with 25 and quarterback hits with 41. But here’s the angle we’re taking from a betting point of view: Donald only had 59 total tackles on the season for an average of 3.7 per game. His tackle total likely stays low for two reasons: Interior defensive linemen don’t usually put up huge tackle numbers and teams likely run as far away from Donald as possible whenever they can.
The other key factor we must refer to once again is the fact that Belichick does not let the opponent’s top players beat him. We’ve talked at length about this over the past couple of weeks and it likely won’t be the last time. Belichick, Tom Brady, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will spend hours coming up with a plan on how to negate Donald. They’ll run away from him, double team him, and just generally confuse him with their pass protection. It was clear that both the Cowboys and Saints employed similar game plans in the NFC playoffs as Donald had just two total tackles (and no sacks) in each of the past two games.
Another factor to consider is that New England’s offensive line is simply on fire. Brady is the only quarterback to have not been sacked yet this postseason. In fact, in 46 pass attempts last week against the Chiefs, Brady was only pressured five times. Two weeks ago, he was only hit twice on 44 dropbacks. The O-line has also been opening gaping holes for the running game with Patriots players not named Brady running for 333 yards on 79 attempts for an average of 4.2 yards per attempt. New England’s offensive line is on fire and we’re expecting it to limit Donald at Super Bowl LIII, much like the Cowboys and Saints have been able to limit him so far in the playoffs. Take the Under 3.5 on his total tackles and assists total.
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Click the link below for all the current props
53 Super Betting Angles
January 26, 2019
Super Bowl LIII between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams will be the 53rd installment of the big game on Sunday, Feb. 3, 2019 from Atlanta, Georgia.
1 – In the first 50 Super Bowls, only one was decided by exactly one point – Super Bowl XXV in in 1991 when the Giants defeated the Bills 20-19 from Tampa, Florida as seven-point underdogs.
2 - The city of Los Angeles is seeking its second-ever Super Bowl title. The last L.A.-based team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy was the Raiders back in Super Bowl XVIII in 1984 over the Redskins.
3 – Six Super Bowls have been decided by three points or less. New England has participated in four Super Bowls decided by three points or less, going 3-1 and that includes their win SB36 win over the St. Louis Rams.
4 – The NFC West is looking to become the fourth division since realignment in 2002 to have two Super Bowl winners.
5 – The Patriots have won five straight meetings against the Rams, with the last outcome taking place in the 2016 regular season from Foxboro. New England captured a 26-10 win as a 13-point home favorite.
6 – The amount of times New England has allowed three or more passing touchdowns in a game this season. The Patriots won four of those six games, but yielded at least three touchdown passes in both playoff wins over the Chargers and Chiefs.
7 – Jared Goff (California) will be looking to become the seventh quarterback from a Pac-12 school to win a Super Bowl. The other six are Nick Foles (Arizona), Aaron Rodgers (California), John Elway (Stanford), Troy Aikman (UCLA), Mark Rypien (Washington State), and Jim Plunkett (Stanford).
8 – The Rams are 8-0 against AFC opponents since head coach Sean McVay took over the team in 2017. The team has averaged 34.8 PPG during this run, which helped the ‘over’ go 5-3.
9 – The Patriots are playing in their 9th Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era. This is the eighth Super Bowl that New England will be taking the field in a stadium that is either a dome or has a retractable roof.
10 – There have been 10 defensive players named Super Bowl Most Valuable Player. The most recent winner was Broncos linebacker Von Miller, who captured the award in Super Bowl 50.
11 - There have been 11 situations where a head coach was making his debut in the Super Bowl versus a head coach with Super Bowl experience. This took place last season as Philadelphia's Doug Pederson bested New England's Bill Belichick. In the last four times in this scenario, the rookie coach has come out victorious three times.
12 - Of the 103 quarterbacks who have started a Super Bowl, 26 of them have worn number 12 (Tom Brady). Those signal callers have gone 14-12 overall and that is the most wins by quarterbacks wearing 12 in SB history.
13 – Tom Brady is facing an NFC West opponent for the 13th time in his career. Brady compiled a 7-5 record in the first 12 games, while never losing to an NFC West team in the Super Bowl.
14 – The amount of games (both regular season and postseason) Rams wide receiver Robert Woods hauled in each at least five receptions.
15 – In 15 instances since 2013, the Patriots have lost outright as a favorite away from Gillette Stadium. Amazingly, New England dropped five games this season as road chalk.
16 – Since 1988, the AFC has been favored in the Super Bowl sixteen times. Underdogs from the NFC have put together a solid 10-5 ATS record in the last 15 instances.
17 - In the first 52 Super Bowls, the most common points scored by a losing team was 17 and 10, which happened eight times apiece.
18 – This is the 18th game the Rams have played away from L.A. Coliseum under head coach Sean McVay. Los Angeles has put together a solid 14-3 ledger in the first 17 highway contests.
19 – Rams QB Jared Goff has tossed 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions in 10 career games against AFC opponents, which has led to an 8-2 record.
20 - The most combined penalties called in a Super Bowl was 20, which happened twice in 52 games. Dallas and Denver did so in Super Bowl XII and the Patriots and Panthers followed suit in SBXXXVIII.
21 – The fewest combined points ever scored in a Super Bowl was 21, which took place in Super Bowl VII when the Dolphins defeated the Redskins 14-7.
22 - New England averaged 22.8 first downs per game in the regular season, while Los Angeles led the league with 25.1 per game. In the postseason, the Patriots have improved to 33 first downs per game and the Rams (24.5) have held steady.
23 – The Patriots averaged 23.3 points per game on the road this season, which was more than 10 points lower (33.8 PPG) than what they averaged at Foxboro. They had the second worst home/away scoring difference this season, only behind Oakland (25/12).
24 – In Super Bowl 31, the Patriots led the Packers 14-10 after the first quarter and that’s the most combined points (24) scored in the first 15 minutes of the finale.
25 - In the first 25 Super Bowls, the favorites have gone 17-8 against the spread and the ‘under’ went 13-11 in those games. In the last 27, the underdogs have produced a 14-10-2 ATS mark. Super Bowl 49 between the Patriots and Seahawks closed at a pick 'em.
26 - The longest time that elapsed in a Super Bowl before either team scored was 26 minutes, which occurred in SB38 between New England and Carolina. Despite the slow start, the pair combined 24 at the end of the first half and a SB record 37 in the final 15 minutes as the Patriots won 32-29 over the Panthers.
27 - The NFC owns a 27-25 all-time edge in Super Bowls but the conference hasn't captured back-to-back wins in the finale since the Giants and Packers did so in 2011 and 2012.
28 - Only once in Super Bowl history has a team scored exactly 28 points in a victory. The Patriots accomplished this feat in Super Bowl XLIX four years ago in a 28-24 triumph over the Seahawks.
29 – QB Tom Brady owns a 29-10 all-time record in the playoffs and that includes a 5-3 record in the Super Bowl.
30 – The Rams faced nine playoff teams this season and averaged 30.8 points per game. In six of those games, L.A. tallied at least 30 points, even though only two of those efforts came away from the Coliseum.
31 – New England played two playoff teams on the road this season and it allowed 31 points in both games. They won both those contests, a 38-31 decision over the Bears in Week 7 and a 37-31 victory over the Chiefs in the AFC Championship.
32 – Los Angeles averaged 32.4 PPG this season, which was the second ranked scoring offense in the league.
33 – The highest point total scored by a losing team in a Super Bowl was 33, which happened in last year’s decision when the Patriots lost to the Eagles, 41-33. Prior to that result, the next highest result scored by the losing team was 31 points.
34 - During New England's current three-year Super Bowl run, the Patriots have scored at least 34 points six times in the playoffs. New England owns a perfect 6-0 record in those games.
35 – The most points ever scored in a quarter of a Super Bowl was 35 by the Redskins in their 42-10 win against Denver in SBXXII.
36 - Rams running back Todd Gurley needs 36 receiving yards to cash his game prop at William Hill. Gurley racked up at least 36 receiving yards eight times this season, but has only three catches for six yards in the playoffs.
37 – The most points the Rams have allowed in a playoff victory came in the 1999 divisional round against the Vikings in a 49-37 blowout.
38 - Jared Goff attempted 38 passes or more only five times this season. Goff needs to attempt at least 38 passes to cash the 'over' on his game prop, according to William Hill as all five of these games came past the midway point of the season.
39 – In Super Bowl 39 (XXXIX), New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 but failed to cover as a seven-point favorite. This was one of two games where the underdog, in this case the Eagles, scored late to affect the point-spread. The other backdoor cover came in SBXIII when Pittsburgh defeated Dallas 35-31. The Cowboys trailed 35-17 and scored 14 points in the final three minutes.
40 - The L.A. Rams had 40 passing plays of 25 yards or more, which was ranked second in the league. Kansas City (52) had the most big passing plays. New England was ranked 13th with 33 completions of 25-plus yards.
41 - Six times in Super Bowl history a team has scored at least 41 points. The Eagles pulled off this feat last season in a 41-33 victory over the Patriots. It was the first time in Super Bowl history that a team scored at least 41 points and didn't win by double-digits.
42 – Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski's longest catch of the season was 42 yards against the Chiefs back in Week 6. Since then, Gronk has compiled only one catch of more than 25 yards.
43 – The most completions in a Super Bowl was 43, which is held by QB Tom Brady in Super Bowl 51 between New England and Atlanta. What’s more impressive is that Brady completed 22 passes in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Falcons.
44 - Washington Redskins running back John Riggins wore number 44 and he’s the only Super Bowl MVP that had a jersey listed in the forties. The most common range for SB MVP jersey numbers falls between 10 and 19.
45 – The most points New England has scored in the postseason under the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady regime was 45, which happened twice. In the 2011 playoffs, the Patriots blasted Denver 45-10. In this year’s AFC Championship, they dumped the Colts 45-7.
46 – The Buccaneers outscored the Raiders 28-18 in the second-half in Super Bowl 37 and the combined 46 points were the most scored in a second-half of a finale.
47 - The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook have posted a prop on the Longest Made Field Goal in SB53 at 47.5. Rams kicker Gerg Zuerlein has hit 4-of-6 field goals over 50 yards while Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots was just 2-of-5 from that distance.
48 - There has only been one Super Bowl where the combined score has landed exactly on 48 points. This occurred in SBXLIV when the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17 in 2010.
49 – San Francisco captured a 49-26 victory over San Diego in Super Bowl 29, which was the only time a team scored exactly seven touchdowns and extra points in a game. The 75 combined points was also the most ever scored in a Super Bowl.
50 – Patriots running back Sony Michel has rushed for at least 50 yards in eight consecutive games, including back-to-back 100+ yard efforts in the playoffs. The SuperBook sent out his rushing total yards prop listed at 76.6 while William Hill opened 79.5 yards.
51 – The Rams allowed 51 points to the Chiefs in Week 11 at home yet still won the game with 54 points. It was the first time in NFL history that both teams scored at least 50 points.
52 - William Hill posted a total of 52.5 receiving yards on New England running back James White in their Super Bowl 53 props. White averaged 56 receiving yards per game this season and he surpassed that average in the playoffs with 73 YPG versus the Chargers and Chiefs. In Super Bowl 51 versus the Falcons, White finished with 14 catches for 110 yards but he only had 2 catches for 21 yards against Eagles last February in SB52.
53 – The most passing attempts made by Tom Brady in a regulation playoff win in his career was 53, coming in last season's divisional victory over Tennessee. Brady completed 35 passes for 337 yards and three touchdowns.