Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 1/29/19
Advantage - Patriots
January 29, 2019
By Tony Mejia
If it weren’t for Atlanta’s collapse in Super Bowl LI and Seattle’s ill-fated decision to throw from the 1-yard line on second down in Super Bowl XLIX, New England would be on a streak of five consecutive losses in the NFL’s premier event.
Of course, pro football is filled with ifs and buts. All the Patriots have to do to is look at who is lining up against them for evidence of that, facing the Los Angeles Rams instead of the New Orleans Saints due to incompetent officiating. As things stand, the Patriots are 2-3 in their last five Super Bowl appearances dating back to February 3, 2008.
On the 11th anniversary of seeing their dreams of a perfect season dashed thanks to an upset suffered at the hands of the New York Giants, the Pats will take the field favored once again. 41-year-old Tom Brady will look to win an unprecedented fifth Super Bowl MVP trophy while leading his team to a sixth championship, which would tie the Steelers for most all-time and cement Brady as the best football player ever since he’d be the only one with six rings.
Bill Belichick is adding to his legacy by making his eighth appearance. His five wins are already the most in league history by a head coach.
Obviously, Belichick and Brady are the reasons the Patriots have ben so successful over the last two decades and will key Sunday’s efforts as they look to take down the Rams. The duo teamed up to pull off an upset of the Chiefs in Kansas City in order to secure their spot in Atlanta, winning the AFC Championship in overtime after Brady bailed out Belichick’s tired defense by leading the offense on a 13-play, 75-yard drive following victory in the ever-important coin toss. Patrick Mahomes II never even touched the ball in the extra session after leading the Chiefs to a 24-point fourth-quarter outburst, allowing Belichick to enjoy the handiwork of his godsend of a quarterback instead of stressing over how to get a stop that eluded him throughout the final 15 minutes of regulation.
Kansas City scored on the first play of the fourth and then put together scores on drives that took 10 seconds, 1:29 and 31 ticks. Rams head coach Sean McVay will surely glean something from the Chiefs offensive game plan and has the weapons to drive the ball down the field. Look for L.A. to spread out the Pats defense, allowing Todd Gurley room to catch the ball out of the backfield and giving Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods plenty of space to work underneath. Both are exceptionally fast and precise route-runners, so it will be on Jared Goff to deliver the ball as accurately as you know Brady will in order to keep this competitive.
New England’s defense has dominated early in this postseason, holding the Chargers to just seven points while Brady are rookie RB Sony Michel helped build a 35-7 halftime edge. The defense stood tall against Andy Reid’s scripted plays and shut out the Chiefs in bitter cold two weeks ago, helping the Patriots take a 14-0 lead to the break.
New England’s secondary gave up 374 passing yards against the Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl, but it nevertheless trusts its experience. Corner Stephon Gilmore will be starting his second straight title game while tag-team partner Jason McCourty will be making his first appearance. Safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung have been around for years, so Belichick will lean on them to prevent big plays and keep the Rams’ speedy receiving threats from getting behind them.
Linebacker Kyle Van Noy has been spectacular down the stretch and will be tasked with keeping Gurley in check in what is probably the most crucial matchup in this contest as far as the Patriots are concerned. Belichick is counting on his speed helping to neutralize a running back who hasn’t been himself through this entire playoff run after missing the final few weeks of the regular season. New England is heavily invested in keeping him from finding his rhythm.
The same can be said about Goff, who started slowly in New Orleans last week before warming up and delivering the upset with help from kicker Greg Zuerlein. Throwing him off early will be essential since the Patriots didn’t record a sack of Nick Foles in Super Bowl LII. They’re counting on Trey Flowers’ experience to help deliver some pressure.
Brady was only sacked once by the Eagles and threw for 505 yards in the loss last season, setting an NFL postseason record. He proved last week that he doesn’t need a lead to feel comfortable, not that that was ever in doubt. Against the Falcons, he threw for 466 yards, so he’s thrown for 971 yards in his last two appearances in the “Big Game.” He’s completed 71 of 110 passes and thrown just one interception in the last two Super Bowls and comes into this one the all-time leader in completions (235), attempts (357), yards (2,576) and passing touchdowns (18). When you consider Goff hadn’t even won a playoff game until earlier this month, the difference in experience between Sunday’s starting quarterbacks is cartoonish.
Goff said his earliest memory of watching football centers around Brady and Super Bowl XXXVII back he when he was a 9-year-old.
That’s why it was so surprising that the Rams opened as a 1-point favorite at most sportsbooks before betting quickly turned the Pats into ‘chalk’ as the spread has reached as high as a full field goal at some shops. The line at most books is 2.5 points as of Tuesday morning, which is entirely because of Brady and Belichick.
They’re trusted, known commodities. While experience isn’t the end-all, be-all, it’s nice to have that in your back pocket when investing on what’s always the most gambled-on single event of the calendar year, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see more money come in on the Patriots. If you’re willing to lay points, get in sooner than later. If you’re taking them with the underdog Rams, you’ll likely be best served waiting closer to kickoff.
In-game circumstances dictate most totals, but the Patriots have proven time and again that Brady is unflappable and immune to pressure from even championship-level defenses, so the ‘over’ has to be tempting, especially indoors. Even at a robust 56.5, both offenses can easily surpass that figure if conditions command a second-half shootout.
Belichick is going to utilize the first few drives to see how his unit holds up against Goff and Gurley. If the results are poor, count on a more methodical approach relying on Michel and Rex Burkhead to try and work the clock and keep his defense off the field. Red-zone efficiency will also be a major factor since the Rams are very strong in that department.
Considering the Patriots have gotten to this point as healthy as they’ve been all season, losing only a couple of key contributors to attrition along the way, they’re well-equipped to move to 6-3 in Super Bowls in the Belichick/Brady era.
Advantage - Rams
January 29, 2019
By Kevin Rogers
The Rams went through a solid run of Super Bowl appearances with the “Greatest Show on Turf” by reaching the Big Game in 1999 and 2001. Seventeen seasons and one cross-country move later, the Rams are back in the Super Bowl facing the team that broke their heart at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome as the Patriots picked up a 20-17 upset as 14-point underdogs to begin the Tom Brady dynasty.
This time around, Los Angeles showcases a 33-year old head coach in Sean McVay and a third-year quarterback in Jared Goff looking to send the franchise to their second-ever Super Bowl title. The Rams put together an 11-5 record in McVay’s first season patrolling the sidelines in 2017, but Los Angeles was tripped up by Atlanta in the Wild Card round. However, L.A. proved it wasn’t a one-hit wonder by improving by two victories this season with a 13-3 mark to finish tied with New Orleans for the best record in the NFL.
We all saw how the final minutes of the NFC Championship unfolded with the missed pass interference penalty on the Rams that would have set up the Saints with a first and goal opportunity that would have allowed New Orleans to run the clock down for the game-winning field goal. New Orleans still took the lead, but Los Angeles eventually tied the game late in regulation and won in overtime, 26-23. The Rams cashed in their first underdog role of the season and will be receiving points for the second straight contest.
Now, onto why the Rams are the team to back in Super Bowl LIII on Sunday.
PATRIOT CLOSE GAMES
This is the ninth Super Bowl that the Patriots have played in since 2001, all with Brady and Bill Belichick running the show. New England has won five Super Bowls, as four of those wins are by four points or less, while the fifth championship came in the unlikely comeback victory over Atlanta two years ago by six points in overtime. The Patriots are 1-5 ATS as a Super Bowl favorite, but not all of those games saw New England laying huge wood. New England is 1-2 SU/ATS in the last three Super Bowls as a favorite of four points or less, including in last season’s 41-33 defeat to Philadelphia.
HIGHWAY TO SWELL
Under McVay, the Rams have won 14 of 17 games away from the L.A. Coliseum. Granted, two of those losses came this season at New Orleans and Chicago. In the 15-6 defeat to the Bears at Soldier Field in December, the Rams allowed one touchdown, while intercepting Mitchell Trubisky three times. Goff was picked off four time in the loss, marking only the second time in the last two seasons that the Rams have been held to single-digits.
Now to the good on the road. The Rams topped the 30-point mark in six of nine away contests this season, while Goff was intercepted six times in the other eight road games not including the Bears’ debacle. Los Angeles has compiled a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog, with two of those wins coming in the first four weeks of 2017. Since allowing 45 points to New Orleans in Week 9, the Rams have yielded 63 points in the past four road contests.
BALK AT CHALK
The Patriots were listed as a favorite away from Gillette Stadium in all eight regular season games. New England lost five of those contests outright, including defeats at Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee, Miami, and Pittsburgh. Not one of those teams made the playoffs, while the Patriots were limited to 10 points in three of those setbacks. In four of those games, New England allowed at least 31 points, which didn’t include the AFC Championship where the Patriots gave up 24 fourth quarter points to the Chiefs.
DON’T COUNT THEM OUT
VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson checks in with several convincing points on backing Los Angeles, “The Rams will hear for two weeks that they didn’t deserve to be in the Super Bowl with the missed call late in the NFC Championship to provide extra fuel for this opportunity, but the box score painted a clear edge for Los Angeles with a 378-290 edge in yards in New Orleans. The Rams also showed resiliency battling back from a 13-0 deficit in the first quarter, holding the Saints to just 160 yards the rest of the game including overtime.”
“The Rams have marginal run defense numbers for the season, but in the postseason they held Dallas and New Orleans to 2.3 yards per rush each, surrendering a grand total of 98 rushing yards against a pair of strong rushing teams. The Rams also had to face the prolific Seattle rushing offense twice this season to skew the numbers in a 16-game sample. The Patriots have rushed the ball with great success in the playoffs, but it appears that success will come to an end in the Super Bowl as the Rams will likely aim to force Brady to throw just like the Eagles did last season in the Super Bowl,” Nelson notes.
GROUND CONTROL
Obviously Todd Gurley’s productivity will be a key factor on Sunday after totaling only 10 yards on four carries in the NFC Championship. Gurley posted MVP-type numbers this season by racking up over 1,800 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns. The Rams rushed for over 135 yards as a team in 10 games, including dropping 273 yards on the ground in the NFC divisional playoff win over the Cowboys. C.J. Anderson closed the season with three 100-yard rushing performances, including 123 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas.
TO MAJOR TOM
Nelson is back for some surprising notes on the four-time Super Bowl MVP, “Despite his all-time great status, Brady finished 12th in QB Rating this season which was four spots behind Goff. Brady finished with his worst QB Rating since 2014 this season and across the board his numbers were worse this season than in his past two Super Bowl seasons, including featuring the most turnovers he has had since 2013. He had two interceptions in the AFC Championship and had a game-sealing third interception last week until an offsides call brought the play back.”
BARKING DOGS
The public loves the favorite in the Super Bowl, but that hasn’t been the best play over the years. Underdogs own an 8-2 ATS mark in the past 10 Super Bowls (taking out Super Bowl XLIX which closed at a pick-em), while seven of those teams have won outright. The last seven AFC favorites have compiled a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS mark in Super Bowls since 2008, when the Patriots were upset by the Giants as 12-point chalk.
Below is the link for the Westgate Props
Since NFL realignment (2002-03), the Super Bowl team that scored fewer points per game during their playoff run are 11-5 straight up in the Super Bowl
Without question there will be plenty of angles floating around this week mentioning that teams that allowed fewer rush yards, or fewer points, or scored more points during the regular season are X-X in the Super Bowl, but why is it that almost always they fail to shrink the sample size down enough to focus on the actual playoff run the two teams went on to get to this point. Sure, small sample sizes are the enemy of statistical proclamations, but current form is always something people never forget to bring up, and given how high the stakes are in the playoffs, shouldn't current form get some more time in the sun?
Well, after going back and looking at all the past Super Bowl winners since the 2002-03 season, something really interesting popped up. The team in the Super Bowl that had scored fewer points per game on average have had plenty of success in becoming World Champions. That's held true the past three seasons with the Eagles scoring 26.5 points per game in their two playoff games a year ago – compared to New England's 29.5 PPG – and if it wasn't for Seattle head coach Pete Carroll's highly questionable decision to throw it from the 1-yard line in Super Bowl 49 to cough up that game to New England, this trend would hold true for each of the past seven eventual Super Bowl champions.
Now the caveat there, is that of the five times where the team averaging more points during their playoff run came into this game and won, two of them were done by Tom Brady and the Patriots (vs Philadelphia in 2005, and Seattle in 2015), but an 11-5 SU record clocks in at 68% and that's hard to ignore. With the Rams coming into this game averaging 28 points per game, and New England averaging 39 points per game during the respective two wins for each side, this historical trend does favor LA.
After all, there is some truth to the old adage that “defense wins championships” because these teams that have put up fewer points en route to a Super Bowl appearance wouldn't have gotten there (albeit the Rams appearance this year is under MUCH different scrutiny) without their defense stepping up and not forcing the offense to do all the heavy lifting. That's because....
The last eight Super Bowl winners have all allowed fewer points per game during that season's playoff run than their Super Bowl opponent.
This relates to the discussion above, as it focuses solely on the two or three playoff games each Super Bowl combatant won that year to get to this game. This year will be the first time since prior to realignment that both teams come into the Super Bowl having allowed more than 20 points per game on average, but low and behold, the team that's allowed the fewer points on average in the playoffs has come out as the champion the past eight Super Bowls.
This year we've got the Rams allowing 22.5 PPG in their two playoff wins, and New England coming in allowing 29.5 PPG, so here is another “current form” indicator that's decidedly in favor of the Rams. In past Belichick/Brady Super Bowl defeats, it's been pressure from the middle of the defense that tends to get the Patirots out of sync the most (NYG X2, Philadelphia), and LA's front with the likes of Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and others, are more than capable of having similar success.
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Advantage - Over
January 30, 2019
By Chris David
Advantage: New England · Los Angeles · Over · Under
The ‘over’ run in the Super Bowl continued last February as the Eagles defeated the Patriots 41-33 in the 52nd installment and the high side (49) was never in doubt. Including that outcome, the ‘over’ has cashed in five of the last six NFL finales.
There were a couple fortunate bounces for bettors riding the ‘over’ during this span, and both of them featured New England. In 2015, the Patriots defeated the Seahawks 28-24 and the high side (47 ½) connected despite the pair playing to a scoreless first quarter.
Just two years ago, New England pulled off the improbable 34-28 overtime win against Atlanta in Super Bowl 51 and the ‘over’ (57) cashed due to the Patriots forcing the extra session with a wild fourth quarter. Coincidentally, that game also had a scoreless first quarter.
Jumping ahead to this week’s matchup and the oddsmakers are expecting another high-scoring affair, opening the total at 58. After 10 days of wagering, the number has dropped to 56 ½ at most betting shops as of Wednesday.
As expected, the early action is on the low side and the latest Betting Trends are showing a lean that way but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number get pushed up come Sunday evening.
With the professional assistance from one of our top VegasInsider.com handicappers and contributors Joe Nelson, we’ll touch on the ‘over’ in this piece and also provide you reasons to back the ‘under’ in another installment.
Over Trends and Angles to Watch
-- The Rams enter this game with the second-ranked scoring offense in the league, averaging 32.4 points per game. New England is ranked fourth with 28.6 PPG.
-- New England faced four playoff teams in the regular season and the defense surrendered 28.8 PPG in those games.
-- Los Angeles has gone 8-0 versus AFC opponents since head coach Sean McVay took over the Rams. In those wins, the club is averaging 34.8 PPG and that’s led to a 5-3 ‘over’ mark.
-- Another McVay angle is what the young coach has done off the bye. In three games played with rest, the Rams have scored 51, 30 and 30 points. The last result coming in this year's Divisional Playoff round, which saw Los Angeles defeat Dallas 30-22.
-- Sticking with the rest angle, New England offense has played well off a bye in the playoffs. The Patriots are averaging 35.4 PPG in their last eight postseason games with rest, which includes a 41-point effort against the L.A. Chargers this year and also 33 in a loss to the Eagles in the 2018 Super Bowl.
-- The Rams have been installed as underdogs six times under McVay over the past two seasons and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in those games.
-- Going back to the 2014-15 playoffs, the Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 10-3 in their last 13 postseason games. During that span, the offense has averaged 32.8 PPG. In this year’s playoffs, New England has posted 36 PPG.
-- The Patriots defense played two road games versus NFC opponents this season and they allowed 31 and 26 points to the Bears and Lions respectively.
-- New England has played in 10 Super Bowls all-time and the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in those games. With Tom Brady and Bill Belichick running the show, the totals have produced a stalemate (4-4) but the last three trips to the finale saw the ‘over’ connect.
Expert Analysis – Joe Nelson
The Eagles were the Super Bowl champions last season and the NFC’s top seed allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL. Two years ago the Patriots allowed the third fewest rushing yards in the league en route to the championship and three years ago Denver also finished third in the league in fewest rushing yards allowed. This year’s champion won’t fit that profile as neither New England or Los Angeles featured a strong run defense actually ranking 29th and 32nd in rush yards per carry in the regular season.
In the past four games as these teams combined to go 8-0, sealing the second spots in their respective conferences, and then winning two playoff games. In those four games the Rams have out-rushed foes by 445 yards while the Patriots have out-rushed the past four foes by 499 yards as both teams have been very successful on the ground and should be able to execute a balanced offensive game plan in this matchup. Over the past four games the Patriots have averaged 35 points per game and the Rams have averaged 34 points per game as both of these teams are capable of posting big numbers.
The Rams have been held below 29 points just four times in 18 games while the Patriots were held below 24 points just four times in 18 games. The Patriots were an ‘under’ squad on the season but New England faced a very weak crop of opposing quarterbacks this season. Goff was 8th QB Rating and the Patriots faced only three quarterbacks rated that high this season, allowing 30 points per game in those four games. The Rams have played a third of their games vs. the league’s top five QB Rating quarterbacks this season and they allowed 34 points per game in those games, despite actually winning five of those six games. For the record Tom Brady only finished 12th in the league in QB Rating this season but he has earned the benefit of the doubt to be considered in that company as one of the top opposing quarterbacks the Rams have faced this season.
Both defenses allow more than 350 yards per game and those numbers include playing in two of the weakest divisions in the NFL this year with some very bad teams on the schedule twice for both teams. In six division games the Patriots allowed just 12.5 points per game to bring down the season numbers, actually getting to face back-up quarterbacks in two of the division road games on the season. In two games against Arizona the Rams allowed just nine points combined while Los Angeles had both meetings with San Francisco after Jimmy Garoppolo was injured.
Since 1998 there have been 13 playoff games with a total of 55 or higher and the ‘over’ has hit in 8 of those games. This is the fourth Super Bowl for the Patriots in the past five seasons and the ‘over’ has hit in each of those three recent Super Bowl appearances for New England with the Patriots scoring 28, 34, and 33 in those games while allowing an average of 31 points per game. Over the past 38 Super Bowls the ‘over’ is 26-12 even with the total often inflated in anticipation of popular action on the ‘over’ in the season finale. The Super Bowl underdog has scored at least 21 points in each of the past 10 Super Bowls while only two of the past 20 Super Bowl participants failed to score at least 17 points.
Advantage - Under
January 30, 2019
By Chris David
Advantage: New England · Los Angeles · Over · Under
Outside of boxing or mixed martial arts, betting an ‘under’ in any sporting event doesn’t necessarily provide the excitement you could be looking for and it usually puts you up against the betting public.
However, while the early trends are showing a lean to the 'under' in this year's finale between the Patriots and Rams, I still believe the 'over' will get more attention by kickoff but there are some great angles and trends that could have you leaning low this Sunday.
With the professional assistance from one of our top VegasInsider.com handicappers and contributors Joe Nelson, we’ll touch on the ‘over’ in this piece and also provide you reasons to back the ‘under’ in another installment.
Under Trends and Angles to Watch
-- The Patriots were ranked 10th in scoring defense, allowing 21.3 points per game. The Rams gave up 23.8 PPG but the defensive unit improved to 20.2 PPG on the road.
-- Los Angeles had a red zone percentage of 56.8 percent, which was ranked 19th in the league. The Rams have often left points off the board, scoring seven field goals and just five touchdowns.
-- New England watched the ‘under’ go 11-5 in the regular season, which included a 5-3 mark on the road.
-- Los Angles watched the ‘under’ go 7-2 away from home this season and that includes the low side result in this year's NFC Championship at New Orleans.
-- The Patriots only played one game indoors this season and they were blasted by the Lions 26-10 from Ford Field. It was the second time this season that New England was held to 10 points.
-- The Rams had four games indoors and the ‘under’ went 3-1 in those games, with the lone ‘over’ (57 ½) occurring in their first encounter at New Orleans, which was a 45-35 shootout loss in Week 9.
-- Los Angeles had 12 totals this season close in the fifties or higher and the 'over/under' results ended in a stalemate (6-6).
-- New England saw the ‘under’ go 5-3 in totals that closed at 50 or above.
-- The Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six games when they favored by 2 ½-points or less.
-- The Rams have watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in the playoffs over the past two seasons and the defense has only allowed 23.6 points per game. During this span, the unit has used the ‘bend but don’t break’ approach in the red zone. In those games, they’ve allowed 7 touchdowns and 7 field goals.
-- New England squared off against the NFC West in the 2016 regular season and it went 3-1 in those games but the offense was tempered to 25.8 PPG, which led to a 3-1 ‘under’ mark. In that same season (2016), the Rams went 1-3 against the AFC East and their weak offensive (12 PPG) numbers helped the ‘under’ go 3-1.
-- One of those outcomes saw the Patriots defeat the Rams 26-10 at home on Dec. 4 and the ‘under’ (44 ½) was never in doubt. Including that result, the low side is 4-2 in the last six meetings between the two franchises and that includes the 20-17 win by New England over St. Louis in Super Bowl 36.
-- This will be the third Super Bowl hosted by Atlanta and first since 2000 and coincidentally the Rams won that year, a 23-17 win over the Titans in SB34. The ‘under’ cashed (45) in that contest and also in the first installment from Georgia in Super Bowl 28 between the Cowboys and Bills. Dallas defeated Buffalo 30-13 and the low side (50 ½) was never in doubt.
Expert Analysis – Joe Nelson
The Patriots scored 37 points in overtime in the AFC Championship to emerge as the Super Bowl favorite but New England had 94 offensive plays in that game for 0.394 points per play, actually well below the team’s season average. The same is true for the Rams who managed 26 points in the NFC Championship, also in overtime, but at a .382 points per play rate that was far below the regular season average for the second highest scoring team in the league. Both teams will face arguably more difficult defensive matchups this week after the Rams faced a Saints pass defense that struggled all season while the Patriots faced a Chiefs squad that was among the worst in the NFL in many defensive categories.
The Rams were technically the NFL’s worst yards per rush run defense in the NFL this season allowing 5.1 yards per rush but that figure proved meaningless in a pair of playoff wins as Dallas and New Orleans were both held to 2.3 yards per rush for a fewer than 100 combined rushing yards in two Rams wins to reach the Super Bowl. The Patriots fared even better defending the running game allowing just 19 yards vs. the Chargers and 41 yards vs. the Chiefs for a combined 2.7 yards per rush, to cut the regular season average allowed nearly in half. If both defenses contain the opposing rushing attacks at an even remotely similar clip, these offenses will struggle and the scoring will be limited.
The winning quarterback usually wins the Super Bowl MVP but touchdown passes have been rare for Tom Brady and Jared Goff this postseason. Brady has thrown only two while throwing two interceptions and nearly losing the AFC Championship on a third interception that was called back due to an offsides penalty. Goff has thrown just one touchdown pass in his two playoff wins while also matching that score with an interception in the NFC Championship. Goff has posted 7.1 yards per pass attempt in the postseason while Brady has posted 7.7 yards per attempt, pedestrian averages by today’s standards that wouldn’t have cracked the league’s top 10 in the regular season.
Despite his all-time great status another signature comeback win last week, Brady finished 12th in QB Rating this season which was actually four spots behind Goff. Brady finished with his worst QB Rating since 2014 this season and across the board his numbers were worse this season than in his past two Super Bowl seasons, including featuring the most turnovers he has had since 2013. While he remains a well above average quarterback capable of winning another Super Bowl in the Patriots system, his play has declined with his age and this was not a great Patriots offense as scoring 78 points in two playoff wins suggests. The Patriots topped 27 points just six times in 16 regular season games despite one of the weakest schedules in the NFL and they understand they won’t want to be in a shootout with the Rams as the ground game will again be at the forefront of the game plan.
The coaching hiring season was dominated by talk of trying to find the next Sean McVay. The 33-year old Rams head coach has taken the league by storm in two seasons going 26-9 with great offensive production. McVay has faced Bill Belichick before as the offensive coordinator for Washington in the 2015 season, a 27-10 win for the Patriots in Week 9. Washington posted only 250 yards of offense in that game and never threatened for the upset, actually scoring its only touchdown in the final minute of the game. Kirk Cousins was held to 5.4 yards per attempt while Washington gained just 2.5 yards per carry on the ground and that was a Redskins team that won the NFC East. Jared Goff faced Bill Belichick and the Patriots in his rookie season, which was his third ever NFL game. The result was unsurprising with Goff throwing two interceptions and completing 44 percent of his passes as the Rams had just seven first downs in a 26-10 loss. As good as the results have been for McVay and Goff the past two seasons, they will be making a big leap in class facing off with Belichick, even if this wasn’t one of the legendary head coach’s best defensive teams on paper as a decline in the expected production for the Rams should be assumed.
By: Brandon DuBreuil
TOTAL KEEPS DROPPING
The total for Super Bowl LIII between the Rams and Patriots just keeps dropping. After opening as high as 59 at some books immediately following the AFC Championship Game, the total has been on a steady freefall. It had dropped to 57.5 just 12 hours after opening and then to 57 by Saturday, Jan. 26th. It continues to tick down and is currently sitting at 56.5 at most sportsbooks, though 56 can be found at some shops.
At 56.5, the total is no longer the highest total in Super Bowl history. That honor goes to Super Bowl LI between the Falcons and Patriots that closed at 57 (and hit the Over with a total of 60). Only one other Super Bowl closed above 54.5 and that was Super Bowl XLIV between the Saints and Colts (and hit the Under with a total of 48).
A quick look at numbers tells us that it’s sharp money that is pushing the total down. The Covers Consensus tells us that 62 percent of bets have been on the Over (at any total) while DraftKings has reported taking 64 percent of bets and 76 percent of the handle on Over 56.5. Another thing to factor in is that the public money from tourists is about to start flooding into Vegas for Super Bowl weekend. And what do we know about the public? It loves to bet the Over.
There are two ways to look at this. If you’re an Over bettor, now is likely the time to jump on the total at 56.5. As public money comes pouring in as the game nears, it’s likely that the total ticks up to 57, or even 57.5. Oppositely if you’re an Under bettor and you missed the lines of 59 and 58, you might want to wait until closer to kick off in hopes of gaining an extra half-point or more.
AIR BRADY
In yesterday’s article, we touched on Tom Brady in suggesting the Over 282.5 for his passing yards total:
So far in the playoffs, he has thrown for 343 yards on 44 attempts against the Chargers and 348 on 46 attempts against the Chiefs. Sure, the Pats might try to run the ball heavily against the Rams, but they also did that in their last two games, with 34 rushing attempts against the Chargers and 48 against the Chiefs. New England is just running a ton of plays on offense right now and that should continue Sunday.
But another stat jumps off the page in what Brady is doing so far in the playoffs: He’s throwing the ball a ton. And these were in positive game scripts, meaning the Patriots were ahead in both games and basic football logic would say that they’d run the ball more than they’d pass.
As it turns out, he also tends to throw the ball a ton in the Super Bowl. Brady has 40-plus passing attempts in each of his last four Super Bowls, including a ridiculous 62 against the Falcons two years ago. The Patriots have been in negative game scripts in their last three title games and they’ve had to abandon the running game and have Brady air it out.
So here we have two trends: a recent trend of Brady throwing the ball a ton in positive game scripts during the 2018-19 playoffs and a historical trend of Brady throwing the ball a ton in Super Bowls. We’re going to hop on this trend and back the Over 36.5 for Brady’s passing attempts total.
PHILLY SPECIAL MENTION?
Here’s a fun prop bet that seems like a lock: Will the announcing team of Jim Nantz and Tony Romo say the words “Philly Special” during the broadcast? The Philly Special, of course, was the trick play that the Eagles ran for a touchdown against New England during last year’s title game that is already considered as one of the greatest plays in Super Bowl history. Here are a few reasons why the “Yes” to this prop has a good chance of hitting.
First, it has only been one year since it happened and, with the Patriots being in the game once again this season, it would make sense that Nantz and Romo bring up last year’s game at least once during the broadcast — and how could they not reference the Philly Special in talking about Super Bowl LII.
Second, if there is any kind of trick play attempted during Sunday’s game, the announcers will definitely mention last year’s famous trick play. With two weeks to prepare, the Super Bowl is as good of a game as any to run a trick play. The Patriots even attempted their own version of the Philly Special in last year’s Super Bowl, but Tom Brady dropped the pass. Surely Brady has been thinking about that play ever since and would love a chance at redemption.
Adding to the likelihood of one of these teams attempting some trickery on Sunday is the fact that they both ran trick plays in the conference championship games, with the Rams running a fake punt against the Saints and the Patriots attempting a flea flicker against the Chiefs.
Hearing Romo (or Nantz) say the words “Philly Special” on Sunday seems like a no-brainer and with nice +250 payout, we’re throwing some money on the Yes.
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By: Brandon DuBreuil
GRONK’S LAST HURRAH?
Rob Gronkowski shed some light on his future as a football player as he spoke very candidly yesterday about the “grind” that is an NFL season.
"Just try and imagine getting hit all the time and trying to be where you want to be every day in life. It's tough, it's difficult. ... Abusing your body isn't what your brain wants," Gronkowski told the Super Bowl media on Wednesday. "I just took 50 collisions, and then like the next day everyone wants you to be up. They want practice full speed, next week they want the game to be full speed, but they don't understand sometimes what players are going through with their bodies, with their minds."
Super Bowl LIII could very well end up being Gronk’s last game — but don’t go out and bet the Yes on him announcing his retirement. That prop bet only counts if he announces it during the post-game show, something we’re convinced won’t happen.
If it does end up being Gronk’s last game, we do think he’ll go out with a bit of a bang. New England’s tight end is coming off his third-most productive game of the season when he snagged six catches for 79 yards against the Chiefs last week (his top two would be his 8-107-1 line in Week 14 and his 7-123-1 line in Week 1). Just as importantly, he received a season-high 11 targets in the AFC Championship. To put that into perspective, he had just 11 total targets over the previous four games combined.
Gronkowski also has a nice matchup on paper against the Rams. Opponents targeted their tight ends a league-high 25.2 percent of the time against L.A. during the regular season, which resulted in the Rams allowing 8.1 passes and 67 receiving yards per game to the position.
The Rams haven’t played a receiving threat at tight end yet in the playoffs as the Saints and Cowboys just don’t throw to that position. But looking back into the regular season we see some big numbers from pass-catching tight ends, highlighted by George Kittle’s 9-149-1 line in Week 17 and Travis Kelce’s 10-127-1 line in Week 12.
Another factor to consider is that Gronk is looking happy and, most importantly, healthy for Super Bowl week. He has given some amazing quotes, mostly about partying and the number 69, and then stole the show on Monday night with his dancing. This might not seem like much but it’s meaningful coming from someone who told reporters last offseason that he “didn’t enjoy himself” in 2017-18.
Gronk clearly is not the uncoverable, Hall of Fame tight end that he once was during the peak of his career. But can he still get it done? Absolutely — he proved it last week. We’re thinking he puts together one more clutch performance in a plus matchup in what could be his NFL finale and we’re taking the Over 3.5 on his receptions total.
MCVAY TALKS GURLEY
One of the biggest storylines of Super Bowl week continues to be about Todd Gurley. The Rams’ star running back was on an MVP pace earlier in the season but then got hit with a knee injury that cost him the last two games of the season. He returned in the divisional round for 18 touches (but was still out-touched by C.J. Anderson, who had 23 touches) but then received just five touches to Anderson’s 17 in the NFC Championship Game. Gurley was seen stretching and riding a bike on the sideline against the Saints and looked ready to jump into the game at any time, but it just didn’t happen.
Following the win over the Saints, Gurley blamed himself for two drops and a negative run that led to his benching and Rams coach Sean McVay said he has “to do a much better job for Todd to get him opportunities to get him going.” McVay revisited the subject on Tuesday and had a simple response when asked about Gurley: “He’s gonna be a big part of this game.”
Now the question is simple: Is McVay telling the truth or is he simply forcing the Patriots to do more preparation? We’re going to go with the former as we believe Gurley will be a big part of the game plan on Sunday. Why? A few reasons:
Gurley has shown no signs of still being injured during the playoffs.
Gurley will arguably be the most talented offensive player on either roster on Sunday.
Should the Rams lose with Gurley in a backup role, does McVay really want to face an offseason of “what if” questions.
The Patriots are vulnerable to pass-catching running backs.
This last point is the key one to expand upon. During the regular season, New England allowed 5.5 receptions (13th-most in the league) and 48.5 receiving yards (ninth-most in the league) to opposing backfields. In the playoffs, it has been more of the same, with Chargers’ RBs hauling in seven passes for 52 yards and Chiefs’ RBs catching seven balls for 87 yards.
Running the ball has not been the way to attack the Patriots so far this postseason as their defense held the Chargers to 19 rushing yards and the Chiefs to 41 rushing yards. Game script definitely played a huge part in this as the Pats jumped out to big leads in both games, so keep that in mind if you envision New England scoring early on Sunday.
Teams have been very successful in attacking New England with pass-catching backs and we’re certain McVay knows that. Gurley should have a big role in Super Bowl LIII and we’re taking the Over 3.5 for his receptions total which is currently available at a nice +125.
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The ever all-too-long two-week wait is finally almost over; and while many us have engaged in the inevitable transition out of football into other betting markets, we can welcome back football – if only for one more night.
The Big Game is one on which everyone wants to have a little action. Even the most casual of football fans, who only show themselves for this one game can’t help but indulge, eager to wager “pizza money” on their annual company Block Pool.
For those who fully submerge themselves into the world of Sports betting, however, the Super Bowl is just another game in a sense; one in which angles may be found in some years, and in others, not. The sharpest of the sharp, most of the time, won’t even have a play on the side or total, considering the extra attention these lines get, but will find their advantages in Prop markets, or sometimes in exploiting cheap money lines.
The standard recreational bettor, and even the one game a year bettor, will most certainly have a play on the Super Bowl, though, and there are times when value is created because of this. Public perception will shape these lines in this game more than any game all year, and if you’re not versed in finding value within the softer prop markets, fading the public narrative is often your best bet.
In this Super Bowl edition of MarketWatch, I’ll focus on these publicly dictated side, total, and money line markets, looking for any evidence of potentially sharp involvement, while also considering how recreational money may have influenced these numbers over these past few weeks. Because, while the prop markets are fun, and often profitable, there are still those old-fashioned bettors who bet the Super Bowl still preferring to take a side, possibly a total, or money line. Hopefully, if you haven’t quite made your mind up one who, or what you’re looking to take, this article will provide some clarity.
So, for one last time this season, join me on deep dive into the off-shore betting market, for this Super Bowl edition of NFL MarketWatch.
New England Patriots vs. LA Rams
Off-shore Opening Line: NE – 1.5 – 110
Consensus Current Line: NE – 2.5 – 110
Off-shore Betting Consensus: 77% NE
Opening Total: 58.5 O – 110/ U -110
Consensus Current Total: 56 O -110/ U -110
Consensus: 54% Over
Opening Money Line: NE -125, LA +105
Current: NE -139, LA +119
Consensus: 64% NE
Oh how fickle the betting world; so quick to dismiss the Patriots as a dynasty passed its prime one week, and to put them on pace to be the most popular side in any Super Bowl the next. This is how fast public perception can change, and if you watched New England in the AFC Championship game, and are aware of what this team has accomplished historically, it’s easy to see why.
The Patriots certainly look like a team on a mission; and match them up with an LA Rams team that many would argue do not deserve to be here given the highly criticized non-call in the NFC Championship game, and the narrative of Super Bowl LIII becomes quite clear. Is it in fading this narrative where the value will be found here for the astute bettor? Or is it all too obvious what the outcome will be here and have the sharps jumped on board with the foregone conclusion? Let’s see what the market has to say.
Opening as a consensus one-and-a-half-point favorite off-shore, the Patriots have been the unrelenting object of a significant majority of the spread bets – from the night of January 20th, following the conclusion of the AFC Championship game, up until now. The market has responded in turn, making its way up to NE -2.5 with varying juices as a consensus, while a few major off-shores have even tested the waters at three.
Bovada is the one outlier of the major off-shore books who has remained at three, making the full move all the way up to 3 -110 while most would only go to a soft three, before getting immediate buy-back on the other side. The sharpest and highest limit off-shores, never dared even go reduced at three, fearing the substantial playback from sharp bettors on the key number.
There is no sense wasting more time breaking down the side here, because the conclusion is clear. At three, the Rams are the preferred sharp angle; while at 2.5, I don’t believe professional money will be involved much. The reduced numbers at Pinnacle and Matchbook tell me that the highest limit shops are comfortable taking money on either side, while the fact that they never even tested the waters at reduced prices at three show that they are taking a position below three and fear professional money on the Rams at this number.
Given the overwhelming consensus on the Patriots, and the fact that a large majority of bets haven’t even hit the board yet, your best chance of getting this number would be right before kickoff. I would guess that you won’t see it at a majority of off-shore shops, but it is certainly a possibility; the number is already available at Bovada and the Patriots could likely end up being the most popular public side in Super Bowl history.
In analyzing the total, it appears that an influential position may have hit the market; with a slight majority of bets on the over, the number has come down since open. The current landscape of the Total market suggests a sharp lean to the under, even at the current consensus, with Pinnacle leading the way at the lower end of the market at 56, reducing the over to -101 and charging the standard -110 on the under. MyBookie, one of the more recreationally-driven shops off-shore is at 58, while many other major books are at 56.5, such as BetOnline (-109 over, -111 under) and Bovada (-115 O, – 105 U).
I’m comfortable saying that there is some line value relative to some potentially sharp positions taking the under at any number higher than 56 -110, and this is most likely similar to considering a position on the Rams, in that the best opportunity for value may be in waiting this one out until just before kickoff.
Finally, I will consider the money line, where historically, favorites have shown value year-after-year, as public money floods the market, looking to take the underdog to win the game outright.
This year, however, things are a bit different. Not quite as popular as laying the points with the Pats, picking New England to win the game is actually the more popular of the money line bets – a rarity in the Super Bowl.
A quick cross-section of the market shows Bovada and MyBookie leading the way on the highest money line prices on the Patriots (-150 and -155, respectively), and the best odds on the Rams (+130, +125), while Matchbook and Pinnacle are cheapest on the Pats (-125, -133) and at the expensive end on the Rams (+120). Therefore, while anomalous to years passed, it appears that the value this year is to be found in picking the Rams to win the game outright. Any number better than +120 is certainly worth a look, and currently, it can be found as mentioned already, at Bovada, and also at 5Dimes.
Overall, in tying it all together, it’s quite clear what the world believes is going to happen in this Super Bowl LIII; The Patriots will beat the Rams, by at least a field goal, in a shootout. And in a game where the market will be driven more so than ever by what the world -outside of professional bettors- believes will happen, playing against this narrative is where the value is likely to be found. It’s no easy bet to make, playing against a team that we have become so accustomed to seeing dominate the sport in recent years; but as has been a theme with this article this season, it’s the most difficult bets to make that also hold the most value.
Adam Burke
The Los Angeles Rams side of the equation is a lot more interesting than the New England Patriots side when it comes to player and team props. Many people are tired of seeing the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Bettors that don’t have any personal fandom on the line are simply looking for things to bet on when it comes to the big game. That’s why a newcomer to the party is so much more interesting than the same punch we’ve been forced to drink eight times over.
It is also more interesting simply because it is a higher-variance market. A lot of the Patriots players and the Super Bowl stylings of Bill Belichick are known commodities. With the Rams, we have to dig a little deeper. We have to study a little harder.
That’s what I’ve been doing with the Rams since this matchup was first set in stone. There are a lot of different ways to look at both of these teams, but the Rams are more of an unknown. Hell, there may even be an East Coast Bias to the Patriots and more unknowns about the Rams as a result.
Whatever the case and whatever the reason, the Rams are a lot more fun to look at for Super Bowl LIII. But, I am looking at everything. In follow-up articles, which I will hyperlink in each article, I’ll be looking at Patriots player and team props, game props, and the novelty/entertainment props. In each article, I’ll have anywhere from three to five of my favorite props for you to consider with my reasoning behind those picks.
Be sure to shop around for the best prices. I’ve listed odds at various sportsbooks here, but see what your outs have to offer and get the best of the number.
First Timeout – LA Rams (-115, BetDSI) – It turns out that BetDSI has the best price on this prop as well. You can find this at 5Dimes listed as “[Team] with two timeouts left first” and the Rams are -135. This is pretty cut and dry. The Rams have a Super Bowl rookie quarterback in Jared Goff. The Patriots have a very experienced QB in Tom Brady. The crowd noise should be fairly subdued at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but this will be a more Patriots-heavy crowd, so that could play a role.
Also, Brady has a lot more freedom to audible at the line of scrimmage. He’s done it a ton here in the playoffs. Goff may not be afforded that same luxury with the stakes as big as they are in this one.
Rams Punt Before Scoring (-105, 5Dimes) – This is actually worded as “LAR a punt before a LAR score”, just so that you can Ctrl+F and find it easier. You can also find it at BetDSI at -115. The Rams, amazingly enough, only averaged 33.1 yards per first drive during the regular season. For somebody as well-versed in analytics as Sean McVay, I was astonished to see that, but it’s hard to argue with the cold, hard facts.
The Patriots forced eight punts on opponents’ opening drives during the regular season, which was right around league average. The Rams had the fewest first-drive yards of any playoff team except for the Chargers. Usually a team puts together its best 10 or 15 plays with that “scripted” drive, but that hasn’t really worked out all that well for the Rams to date.
At least this one will have a quick resolution one way or another, but it is also appealing to me because nerves are going to be a very real thing for Jared Goff and his offensive teammates that are going through this Super Bowl thing for the first time.
Furthermore, the Patriots were one of six teams to not turn the ball over on their first drive of the game, so we shouldn’t have to worry all that much about a short field that keeps the Rams from punting.
Cory Littleton Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-110, 5Dimes) – This line is available at BetOnline at 7.5 with the over at -220. There should be other lines out there as the week goes along, with somebody likely splitting the difference with 8 at -140 or something like that. No matter what the Patriots do in this game, Cory Littleton should be a big factor.
If the Patriots run the rock with Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead, Littleton had 125 tackles on the season. In the playoffs, he has 17 tackles + assists in two games. If New England throws to James White, Littleton will likely spy him, as he had 13 passes defended during the season. Littleton only had four QB hits, so he doesn’t blitz a whole lot. He’ll be tasked with stopping the stable of backs for the Patriots.
I’d be stunned if he’s not all over the field. This is my favorite defensive prop bet of Super Bowl LIII.
Robert Woods Receiving Yards Over 70.5 (-110, 5Dimes) – Both BetOnline and DSI are dealing Over 70 at -130, so we’ll trade the half-yard for 20 cents of juice here. Woods has been targeted a lot this season by Jared Goff. He was targeted 18 times over the first two playoff games. His only game with less than seven targets since Week 10 came in the game against San Francisco in Week 17 when he was limited.
Purely from a math standpoint, Woods has averaged 8.6 targets per game over his last eight games. If we look at his 66.2 percent Catch%, that would be about 5.7 catches. His average yards per reception is 14.2 on the season. That puts us just shy of 81 yards.
From a matchup standpoint, Stephon Gilmore likely draws Brandin Cooks because the Patriots won’t want to take the chance of getting beat deep. That means Jason McCourty, or somebody else, draws Woods. That is a pretty good matchup for Woods. He’s become a very reliable route runner and is the closest thing to a possession receiver that the Rams have. We’ve seen the Patriots win a lot of playoff games with possession guys and McVay might as well take a page from that playbook.
Todd Gurley Under 67.5 Yards (-114; BetOnline & DSI); Longest Rush Under 18.5 Yards (-150, BetOnline) – Todd Gurley wasn’t himself late in the season. Maybe these two weeks off will be enough to get him back to something resembling 100 percent, but the Rams were scratching and clawing for the Super Bowl against the Saints and Gurley had four carries for 10 yards in the NFC Championship Game.
If I get burned here, so be it, but the Patriots are going to be ready for Gurley if he can go and he really hasn’t had a burst in most of his games lately. The smarter play for the Rams in this game is to use Gurley as a receiver and let him get into the open field, where his lack of quickness won’t create negative plays. Use him as a decoy or let him get some early yards through the air, but don’t chance getting behind the sticks.
The longest rush prop is at BetOnline and 5Dimes, though the 5D line is 16.5 with -110 on the under. Gurley’s 35-yard touchdown run against the Cowboys is one of five carries of 19 or more yards for Gurley since the start of November. That’s good enough for me to take a stab.
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams Preview and Predictions 2019-02-03
NFL Predictions 30th January 2019 by Gracenote
Patriots vs. Rams Preview and Predictions
by Gracenote on 01/30/2019
In February 2002, the New England Patriots pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history, a win that elevated Tom Brady to national prominence and launched the birth of a dynasty. On Sunday's anniversary of that milestone victory, the Patriots will play in their ninth Super Bowl in 18 seasons when they square off against the Los Angeles Rams -- the team they defeated to win their first Lombardi Trophy -- at Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
New England, appearing in its third consecutive Super Bowl, has won five world championships behind the tandem of coach Bill Belichick and the 41-year-old Brady, who has been named Most Valuable Player of the game four times. "His career speaks for itself," Rams coach Sean McVay said of Brady. "I'm so much a fan of this game and what Tom's done is unbelievable." Much like New England, the Rams appeared poised for a lengthy run of success behind their own quarterback-coach combination in former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff and McVay, who has guided the team to consecutive NFC West titles in his first two years after the franchise went 13 seasons without a winning record and is the youngest head coach in a Super Bowl. "They've got a great team," Brady said of his Super Bowl LIII opponent. "They do well in all phases just like all the teams we've played in this game. It's a very difficult game to win. I'm excited for it."
TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -2.5 O/U: 56.5
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-5): Rookie running back Sony Michel has been instrumental in helping New England knock off a pair of 12-win teams en route to the Super Bowl, rushing for 129 yards and three touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers and 113 yards and two scores in an overtime win at Kansas City in the AFC title game (as the Patriots were +3.5 point underdog at intertops). The versatility of the Patriots' backfield has been on display as James White had 15 catches in the divisional round while Rex Burkhead contributed 41 yards rushing and a pair of scores in the conference title game. Wide receiver Julien Edelman was the top target with 16 receptions for 247 yards in both contests as Brady boosted his postseason total to 16 300-yard games by throwing for more than 340 yards in each victory. New England has six sacks in the postseason and has been stout defensively until giving up a combined 38 points in the final quarter.
ABOUT THE RAMS (15-3): Los Angeles also has been getting a lot of mileage from its ground game, but C.J. Anderson has done much of the heavy lifting even with Todd Gurley healthy after missing the final two games of the regular season. Gurley, who accounted for an NFL-best 21 touchdowns before he was injured, ran for 115 yards and a TD in the divisional round against Dallas but was limited to only four carries for 10 yards and a score in the overtime win over New Orleans while Anderson rushed for 167 yards with two TDs on a combined 39 carries. Gurley had 59 receptions in the regular season and was a huge weapon for Goff, who has been held to under 216 yards in five of the past seven games. The Rams have the league's most disruptive force in defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who is the mainstay of a unit that bottled up Dallas' running game and held high-powered New Orleans to 290 total yards.
EXTRA POINTS
1. A win by New England will tie the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most Super Bowl titles with six.
2. Rams WRs Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, who played with New England last season, have 12 and 11 catches, respectively, in this postseason.
3. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski has 12 TD catches in 12 postseason games, tied with John Stallworth for No. 2 all-time.
PREDICTION: Patriots 27, Rams 26
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NFL
Long Sheet
Super Bowl
Sunday, February 3
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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) vs. LA RAMS (15 - 3) - 2/3/2019, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-17 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-17 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 193-239 ATS (-69.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 193-239 ATS (-69.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-102 ATS (-44.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 70-102 ATS (-42.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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By: Brandon DuBreuil
EDELMAN’S SLOT BATTLE
We’ve been hesitating to dig into Julian Edelman’s prop bets for Super Bowl LIII because it’s a tough situation to read. On one side of the line, we have Edelman — he’s Tom Brady’s favorite target and is playing very well in the playoffs with a 7-96 line last week and a 9-151 line two weeks ago. But on the other side of the line, we have Nickell Robey-Coleman, the Rams’ slot corner who is also playing very good football in 2018-19.
Robey-Coleman has gone from an unknown to a household name over the past two weeks, first by being the defender behind the non-pass interference call at the end of the NFC Championship Game and then by giving a candid Bleacher Report where he took a shot at Tom Brady. But the fact is that Robey-Coleman is very good.
Per Pro Football Focus, he allowed just 0.65 yards per slot-coverage snap this season, which was the best among qualified corners. Last week, the Saints gave Michael Thomas 18 routes in the slot to get him away from Aqib Talib and Robey-Coleman helped limit Thomas to his second-fewest receiving yards of the season (36).
However, Brady and Josh McDaniels know this. They’re not just going to let Edelman run straight slot routes against Robey-Coleman all evening. They’ll move him around pre-snap, run pick plays, and force the ball to him. This is the key that we’re focusing on.
Brady just doesn’t have another receiver to throw to. Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett will spend most of their time lined up on the outside against Talib and Marcus Peters, and the Rams’ duo is going to win those battles. Brady will be forcing the ball to Edelman a ton and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get double-digit targets, just as he has in each of his last 11 playoff games. Rob Gronkowski should get his fair share of targets as well, but Edelman will still get the ball thrown his way a lot.
So it’s likely going to come down to this: Does Edelman win the slot battle or does Robey-Coleman? We’re going to put our chips in Edelman’s corner. He’s a possible future Hall of Famer who’s still playing at the highest level of his career, plus he’s got a pissed-off Brady throwing to him. We’re backing the Over 6.5 for his receptions total and the Over 79.5 for his receiving yards total.
MICHEL TO GET HIS TOUCHES
No need for a long analysis here: Sony Michel is going to be a huge part of Super Bowl LIII. He has been a huge part of the Patriots’ playoff success so far with rushing lines of 24-129-3 against the Chargers and 29-113-2 against the Chiefs. Sure, he wasn’t on the field late in the game against the Chiefs but that was for two reasons.
First, he was tired. He had already rushed 29 times as the Patriots were en route to their most offensive snaps in a game since 2001. The 29 carries were the most in his career. Second, at that moment the Patriots needed someone on the field who is effective running the ball up the middle and catching it out of the backfield, and that was Burkhead.
The Rams were a defense that was easy to run on during the regular season with a rank of 28 in rushing DVOA, allowing 102.2 yards per game. The Rams have been better against the rush in the postseason, limiting Ezekiel Elliott to 20-47-1 and the Mark Ingram-Alvin Kamara duo to 17-46-0.
Another factor that we’ve touched on a few times over the last two weeks is that the Patriots’ offensive line is on fire. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels have shown in the playoffs that they want to run the ball early in the game with Michel. They’ve had success doing it so far and they’re going to do it again on Sunday. Take the Over 17.5 on Michel’s rushing attempts total (and the Over 0.5 for his rushing touchdowns total, which we suggested last week).
A PATTERSON PROP?
We’re digging deep here but here’s a prop on someone that no one is talking about that we feel could hit. In a lot of Super Bowls, it seems that there’s one player that no one is talking about who emerges as some kind of X-factor. Last year, it was Corey Clement as the Eagles’ running back had four catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. The year before, you could argue it was James White and his 14 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown.
This year might it be Cordarrelle Patterson? The Patriots’ jack-of-all-trades guy has done a little bit of everything so far this season, acting as a receiver, kick returner, and running back, but we can see a situation where he plays a role as a pass catcher on Sunday.
Patterson, of course, hasn’t been involved much as a receiver on offense this season. But because of that, his receptions total for Sunday is set at just 1.5. Looking back on his game log for this season, Patterson has played in 17 games this season and has at least two catches in seven of those games. He can also slide into the backfield comfortably, as he did many times during the regular season while filling in for injured running backs. If that happens it should actually increase his chances of getting a couple catches as the Patriots are going to throw short early and often to avoid Aaron Donald.
Tread lightly as there’s always the chance that Patterson just isn’t involved in the game plan but we think McDaniels is going to call his number a couple times on Sunday. Take the Over 1.5 for his receptions total.
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NFL Underdogs: Super Bowl LIII pointspread pick and plus-money prop predictions
Jason Logan
The title of the column is NFL Underdogs, so there’s no shocking twist at the end in which I actually pick the New England Patriots to cover the Super Bowl spread against the Los Angeles Rams Sunday night. However, in true “M. Night Shyamalan” fashion, the Rams weren’t always Big Game pups.
When the Super Bowl LIII betting odds hit the boards in Las Vegas on January 20, it was the brash young Rams and not the five-time Super Bowl champion Patriots that opened as the chalk. Of course, L.A. -1 didn’t stick around long and, with one-sided early play on the Pats, we’re now dealing with New England as big as a field-goal fave at some books.
The Super Bowl is the most scrutinized single game in sports – even more so when it comes to sports betting. People get a little nuts when there’s money on the line. So there’s not much that I can say here that hasn’t already been said in the two weeks of build-up to the Big Game.
Keeping things short and sweet, here are some bullet-points for why I’m betting Los Angeles to cover in Super Bowl LIII:
• The Rams are the best two-way team New England has faced since a 17-10 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 15. And don’t even say, “What about the Chargers?” because their defensive stats were filled with more hot air than a seat cushion after a Super Sunday feast.
• Los Angeles can get tremendous pressure by rushing only four, which has been the key to slowing down (because you can’t stop him) Tom Brady throughout his career. Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh totaled 154 pressures on the season, and Suh has stepped it up in the postseason BIG TIME.
• A rushing defense, that was once L.A.’s biggest pain point, has been its strength in the past two postseason games. I don’t see New England having the same success on the ground as it had in its first two playoff games.
• Los Angeles is one of the best third-down offenses in the NFL, keeping the chains moving, and has also been excellent when rolling the dice on fourth down – and you need to roll the dice in the Super Bowl.
• New England’s defense isn’t great. It’s allowed 59 total points in the playoffs – which would be instant death for any other NFL team. The Patriots boosted their defensive numbers at the end of the year, playing six of their last seven versus offenses ranked 19th, 20th, 23rd (twice), 27th and 30th in scoring. Those five foes combine to average 19.88 points per game. Los Angeles finished second in scoring (32.9 ppg) and has totaled 56 postseason points.
Pick: L.A. Rams +3
First score of the game: Field goal +150
I’m a big fan of first-quarter Unders in the Super Bowl (taking the Under 10.5 points again this year), banking on nerves to get the best of the teams. You often see some overthrown passes, bobbled handoffs, and bad drops in the opening 15 minutes. These offenses are very good, but those jitters could lead to someone settling for three points instead of six to open scoring.
Will Greg Zuerlein make a fourth-quarter FG? Yes +130
Greg “The Leg” is a huge part of this Rams offense and while his busiest quarter on the season has been the second quarter (13 FG attempts), his second busiest was the fourth and final frame (8 FG attempts). He had two fields goals in the fourth versus New Orleans (and then the winner in OT) and I see him kicking a clutch one in the closing quarter of Super Bowl LIII.
Todd Gurley receiving yards: Over 32.5 (EVEN)
The health of Todd Gurley is the million-dollar question heading into the Super Bowl. I’m sure he’s banged up, but will be fresh and ready to roll – ignited by the ton of criticism thrown his way for losing carries to C.J. Anderson.
Gurley is a dual threat when it comes to rushing and receiving, and averaged more than 41 yards receiving per game on the season. New England allowed over 49 yards receiving per game to running backs in 2018. While I see Gurley having a tougher time on the ground, I predict plenty of pick-ups through the air.
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