Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Monday, January 29, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
The Muffed Punt: Patriots aren't much for blowouts when it comes to the Big Game
Jan 28, 2018 |
By: Joe Fortenbaugh
00:0001:32
By our current count, at least three wagers of $500,000 or more have already been placed in Las Vegas for next Sunday’s Super Bowl LII showdown between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.
Those wagers will be discussed in more detail below, but for now, all you need to know is that each bet was placed on Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles, which is one of the primary reasons as to why the opening pointspread of Patriots -5.5 has already been adjusted to as low as Patriots -4.
But perhaps more important than why the pointspread is moving is the why behind the decision to support the Eagles. Granted, the rationale supporting such a wager is multi-faceted, but at least one of those factors pertains to the following information:
Tom Brady + Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl =
[2002] New England (+14/53) vs. St. Louis: Patriots 20, Rams 17
[2003] New England (-7/38) vs. Carolina: Patriots 32, Panthers 29
[2004] New England (-7/47) vs. Philadelphia: Patriots 24, Eagles 21
[2008] New England (-12.5/54.5) vs. New York: Giants 17, Patriots 14
[2012] New England (-3/53) vs. New York: Giants 21, Patriots 17
[2015] New England (-1/47) vs. Seattle: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24
[2017] New England (-3/57) vs. Atlanta: Patriots 34, Falcons 28 (OT)
Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota will mark the eighth time in which a Super Bowl featured Bill Belichick as the head coach of the Patriots and Tom Brady as the quarterback of the Patriots. But here’s where things get interesting: in those previous seven Super Bowl appearances, the average margin of victory was just 3.7 points, with only one game being decided by more than four points.
That one game in question was last year’s 34-28 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons.
Four games decided by three points, two matchups determined by four points and one overtime thriller that landed on six points.
Brady + Belichick may be the NFL’s ultimate dynasty, but the Hall of Fame tandem doesn’t annihilate the opposition when the Vince Lombardi Trophy is on the line. Further, the Brady + Belichick duo is a lifetime 5-2 straight up and 3-4 against the spread in the Super Bowl, with the Under cashing in four of those seven showdowns.
While it’s certainly not the primary reason as to why we’ve seen so much Eagles money show up in Vegas through the first week of Super Bowl wagering, Brady and Belichick’s Super Bowl history has no doubt played at least a small role in the movement from Patriots -5.5 to Patriots -4.
Now comes the fun part: will big-time Patriots money begin to show in Vegas between now and kickoff, or will the Philly cash continue to pour in during this season’s final week of professional football wagering?
Shameless plug
For those of you who may have missed it, here’s a rundown of what we rolled out on The Sharp 600 this past week:
Episode 69: How to make a Super Bowl point spread with Jeff Sherman
Episode 70: The $500k Super Bowl wager with Chris Andrews
Trend of the Week
In the National Football League’s previous 51 Super Bowls, the team that won the game just so happened to also cover the pointspread 43 times.
Please allow me to repeat myself: the straight-up winner of the Super Bowl is 43-6-2 ATS.
So, who do you guys have winning on Sunday?
Super Bowl action report
Most outlets, both in Vegas and offshore, opened with the Patriots as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5 points. After one week of wagering, we now see New England as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 48.
As of Sunday morning, approximately 58 percent of the tickets written were in support of Philadelphia, while 62 percent of the tickets written on the total were backing the Over.
In regards to the move from New England -5.5 to New England -4, here’s what we know:
1. Early this past week, MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood told our friend Gill Alexander that his property took a “multi-million-dollar bet” on the Philadelphia Eagles. Rood declined to name the bettor or share whether it was a moneyline bet on the Eagles or a wager on the Eagles plus the points, but Rood did move his line from Patriots -5.5 to Patriots -4.5 immediately after booking said wager.
2. South Point director of race and sports Chris Andrews told us on Episode 70 of The Sharp 600 that he booked a $500,000 moneyline wager on the Philadelphia Eagles this past week.
3. Matthew Holt, the COO at CG Analytics and vice president of business development for CG Technology, tweeted Friday, “We took a 700K bet on Eagles moneyline today and now have well into seven-figure liability on Eagles moneyline as of now.”
At the moment, it appears as if we’re all waiting to see whether or not a significant amount of New England money shows up at the books.
While my official Super Bowl side, total and prop selections will be released in next week’s edition of “The Muffed Punt,” here is an early nugget I have been studying:
First quarter UNDER: In seven Super Bowl appearances together, the Tom Brady + Bill Belichick connection has combined to score a grand total of ZERO points during the first quarter.
Yup, Brady and Belichick have been held scoreless during the first quarter in every single Super Bowl they have appeared in together. Further, in those aforementioned seven Super Bowls, a grand total of just 15 points has been scored during the first quarter.
Super Bowl LII's biggest betting mismatches: Eagles vs. Patriots
Jan 28, 2018 |
By: Monty Andrews
Each week during the season, Monty Andrews has broken down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the matchups and setting your daily fantasy rosters. We are down to Super Bowl LII and we use Monty's penchant for finding mismatches to handicap The Big Game.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (-4.5, 48)
It's the biggest game of the NFL season, as the New England Patriots seek their second straight title - and sixth all-time - against a Philadelphia Eagles team that is looking for its first Super Bowl championship. The Patriots come into this year's title contest at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis as modest favorites, thanks to a Tom Brady-led offense that led the league in total offense. The Eagles will look to quash New England's quest at a repeat with a defense that allowed the fourth-fewest yards in the NFL.
Eagles' solid rush attack vs. Patriots' run D problems
There weren't many things the Eagles didn't do well this season, thriving on a dynamic offense led by quarterback Carson Wentz and making opposing teams suffer thanks to a relentless defense. And that's not all; the Eagles were one of the top rushing teams in the league, especially after acquiring Jay Ajayi in a mid-season trade with the Miami Dolphins. And in what is expected to be a highly competitive game, Philadelphia should be able to exploit a New England rush attack that has struggled to keep teams at bay.
The Eagles' running game didn't generate much buzz throughout the season, mostly because Wentz was so spectacular prior to his season-ending knee injury. But Philadelphia might not be where it is without the success of its rush attack, which produced the third-most yards during the regular season (2,115). And while the Eagles struggled with fumbles - committing 11 during the regular season and another three in the playoffs - this is a run game that can move the football against just about any team in the league.
That doesn't bode well at all for a Patriots defense that held opponents to the fourth-lowest run rate in the league (38.0 percent), but allowed opposing rushers to gain a whopping 4.6 yards per carry; only the Los Angeles Chargers were more generous (4.9 YPC). And while New England limited Jacksonville to 101 yards on 32 carries in the AFC Championship, things might be different on a neutral field against an Eagles team whose 4.3 YPC average during the season ranked seventh in the NFL.
Eagles' interception immunity vs. Patriots' secondary struggles
The loss of Wentz - to an injury revealed last week to be even more severe than first thought - was supposed to be the end of the Eagles' title chances. But Nick Foles has emerged as more than capable of spearheading the Philadelphia offense. While he lacks the explosiveness of his young predecessor, Foles has done a magnificent job taking care of the football - and in that regard, the Eagles as a whole have a significant advantage over a Patriots team that didn't produce many turnovers on passing downs.
While Philadelphia boasted one of the lowest passing rates in football during the regular season (55.2 percent), it still led the NFL in passing touchdowns (38) and finished just outside the top 10 in yards per game through the air (240.1). Wentz, Foles and Nate Sudfeld also combined to throw just nine interceptions, sixth-fewest in the league. Foles was at his tactical best last time out, throwing three touchdowns with zero interceptions in last week's NFC Championship rout of the Minnesota Vikings.
Teams threw the ball more than 62 percent of the time against the Patriots, but the New England secondary didn't turn many of those passes into interceptions. The Patriots finished the regular season with 12 INTs - tied with Tennessee for 18th overall - and are the only one of the final four playoff teams without an interception in the postseason; Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Minnesota all have at least two. Look for Philadelphia to use a measured passing game to keep the football out of the hands of the Pats' defense.
Eagles' discipline issues vs. Patriots' paucity of penalties
You might see the first two items on the list and wonder why the Eagles aren't favored. Well, Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense has a lot to do with that - and there are other factors, as well. Oddsmakers aren't convinced that Foles can outduel his New England counterpart, while the Patriots' extensive playoff experience also comes into play. And if Philadelphia can't show more discipline than it did during the regular season, New England will own the kind of penalty advantage that could decide this one.
While it didn't cost them anything in the overall standings, the Eagles were one of the most penalized teams in the NFL in 2017, picking up the fifth-most accepted flags (124) while accruing the eighth-most accepted penalty yards (1,041). Not surprisingly, that resulted in the Eagles finishing fourth from the bottom in total penalty flag differential (minus-17), ahead of only the Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos - three teams that missed the postseason completely.
As you might have expected, the Patriots were once again one of the most disciplined teams in the NFL this past season. New England finished its 16-game campaign with exactly 100 accepted flags - eighth-fewest in the league - and its 882 accepted penalty yards also ranked eighth. And the Patriots were even better when it came to drawing flags, finishing with the league's greatest penalty yard differential (plus-313) and the second-best flag differential (plus-27).
Defense Wins Championship Money
It’s not uncommon for a defensive player to win the Super Bowl MVP. Malcolm Smith did it with the Seahawks, Von Miller hijacked the Carolina Panthers in 2016 and Dexter Jackson picked off Rich Gannon twice to secure Tampa’s lone championship.
Obviously, quarterbacks take this award home more often than not having been honored 28 times. But it’s worthy pointing out that running backs and receivers have taken the award 13 times, while defensive players in general have been selected 11 times.
I’m not suggesting that a defensive player will earn the MVP honor this Sunday, but what I’m getting at is that they are almost always responsible for big time plays. Fortunately for you, the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag has set up a special betting board just for them. You can bet on interceptions, sacks, kicker points and more with specific defensive players.
Let’s take a peek at the board together, shall we?
MOST DEFENSIVE PLAYERS ARE GETTING +400 TO GET A PICK
This value is sort of all over the place, but the median price seems to be around +400 for any player to get a pick. You can bet against players notching an interception, but that would be the worst way to lose money when you have to lay down 1/5 odds in most cases.
The player getting the best odds to cause a turnover through the air is none other than Stephon Gilmore of the Patriots, who had a game clinching deflection. Betting +360 for an interception by Gilmore seems like the way to go but he generally doesn’t hawk down errant passes. He grabbed one against Houston and another while playing Miami. That’s it. If you’re going to bet on anything with regards to Gilmore, it’s where he’s getting +250 odds for 1.5 passes defended (over/under). In the playoffs alone, Gilmore has two per game and has emerged as a go-to secondary man since recovering from a nasty, mid-season concussion.
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Previous Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler is getting +400 to grab a pick as well, and he seems like a much more logical choice given his history in the big game. Again, Butler has been erratic for much of the season but that’s because he’s been exposed as a weakness. Butler works hard at his game and with two weeks to prepare for Nick Foles, there’s a chance he emerges as a really awesome Super Bowl LII prop bet.
On the Philadelphia side of things, Patrick Robinson has sort of become the player to track. The former FSU star has five interceptions this year and was responsible for helping ruin Case Keenum’s day two weeks ago. Robinson is getting +400 odds to pick off Tom Brady and if there’s anyone worthy of your consideration when it comes to the Eagles secondary, it’s him.
CHRIS LONG REVENGE GAME!
The beloved Chris Long is getting another crack at the big game and will have the unusual task of going against his former team just one year after being part of the most ridiculous comeback in Super Bowl history. The revenge game is one of the best reasons to bet on anything from a superstitious standpoint, and Long is getting perhaps the most attractive Super Bowl LII prop bets on the market.
You can bet Long to get a sack at +290. That’s freaking awesome. Long knows how to attack this offensive line since he spent an entire season practicing against them. It’s true that New England didn’t allow any sacks against Tennessee, but Brady was brought down behind the line a total of three times against Jacksonville. Now let’s remember that Jacksonville ranked second in the NFL with 55.0 sacks. Philadelphia is a distant 15th with only 38.0 sacks per game.
Still, Long represents an attractive flier play given the odds. You can also bet on Fletcher Cox, Keith Van Noy and Tre Flowers getting busy in the backfield too and they’re all offering fantastic odds. Interestingly enough, Flowers seems like the most likely to notch a sack at +200.
EVERYBODY NEEDS A KICKER PROP BET
Basically you’re betting on how many total points Steven Gostkowski and Jake Elliott are going to account for. Elliott is getting even -110 odds to go over/under a mark of 7.5 points after accounting for 8 points against the Vikings. It’s worth noting that he only managed one field goal in that game because Foles was unstoppable.
Gostkowski is probably a more intriguing option given that…well…he plays for the better team. With an over/under of +/- 8.0 points, the oddsmakers are suggesting that Gostkowski is more likely to hit the over at -130. Those are tight odds with a fairly large number but Gostkowski has a relatively decent chance of Brady can rip through the Eagles defence as is expected.
Gostkowski has “only” scored 6, 5 and 6 points in his last three outings but overall he’s averaged 9.8 points per game through the season. That includes highs of 15, 13 and 12 so I’m not too concerned with his ability to take over a game.
You know me. I love betting overs. Check out the full defence and special teams SBLII prop betting board here so you can see which ones tickle your own fancies.