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Super Bowl News and Notes, Part 2

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shazman

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, February 1, 2018 from various handicappers and websites

Posted : February 1, 2018 12:43 am

shazman

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These Super Bowl LII betting prop odds have drawn the most sharp money at Vegas and online sportsbooks
Jan 31, 2018 |
By: Patrick Everson
00:0302:10

Just ahead of last week’s reveal of what I like to call “The Great Wall of Proposition Bets,” Jay Kornegay was talking about the incredible growth of these Super Bowl wagering options.

From just a few offerings back in the late 1980s and early ‘90s to now a 30-page packet at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, prop bets have become as much a part of Big Game betting as the pointspread and the total.

Or even more.

“Sixty percent of the betting on the game is on the props,” Kornegay tells Covers, noting he considers betting on the game to include wagers on the side, total, moneyline and prop bets. “That percentage keeps going up, as more people get more comfortable betting the props.”

And that’s not just at the Superbook, which Kornegay operates as vice president of race and sports for the Westgate. Sportsbooks all over Vegas have thick packets full of props, and offshore books are loading up their boards as well. Covers checks in on which offerings are drawing the most attention for Sunday’s clash between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.

South Point

Sportsbook director Chris Andrews cut right to the chase when discussing props at his shop on the south end of Las Vegas Boulevard.

“I got four that we really got steamed on,” he says, noting that led to some speedy odds movement. “We move props a little more drastically. We get bet on it, we move the hell out of it!”

For example, Andrews pointed to this prop: Will there be a roughing-the-passer penalty? Yes opened -120, with No at even money, which seemed to make sense. Tom Brady’s ability to draw such a flag probably looks like a good bet to most observers. But by Saturday, a couple days after the props went up, bettors had a clearly different opinion.

“We were at No -240, and +200 on Yes,” Andrews says, noting the line had settled down a bit by Tuesday, but No was still running -215, with Yes at +185.

Andrews also opened total punts at 10.5, with the Over at -120. Now, the total is 9 shaded to the Under at -135.

“I was debating between 10.5 and 11,” he says. “That’s a huge move.”

The other two big ones Andrews mentioned:

• Who will have more gross passing yards? Brady opened a -25.5-yard favorite over the Eagles’ Nick Foles, and the Patriots QB has since blown up to a 45.5-yard chalk.

• How many total completions will Brady have? Andrews opened at 23.5, with the Over -120, and saw it bet up to 27.5 (-110) before a little buyback to 26.5 (-110).

If you're in the market for a new online sportsbook, check out in-depth reviews of the best books and sign-up bonuses at OddsShark.com.

Superbook

Kornegay had three prop bets that stood out: Total receptions for Patriots running back Dion Lewis opened 4.5, with the Under at -125, and the Under is now -180; rushing yards for Eagles running back Corey Clement opened at 6.5 (-110) and was bet up to 10.5 (-110); and the Yes on Foles throwing more than one touchdown pass went from -200 to -240.

“That’s our biggest prop decision currently,” Kornegay says of the Foles TD pass offering. “Most of the props that are receiving attention are getting bet on both sides.”

William Hill U.S.

Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill U.S. in Las Vegas, cited a prop of Over/Under on Nick Foles passing yards as a particularly big mover. It opened at 268.5 and dropped to 251.5.

“It’s a hard number to make because there’s not much data,” Bogdanovich says. “He had basically a couple mop-up games at the end of the regular season, then two playoff games that were real. That 350 yards against the Vikings was probably an aberration. We opened a little high, and they bet it down. I’m sure he’s gonna throw the ball plenty of times, but bettors think it’s going under.”

Not that Bogdanovich is overly concerned about those bettors.

“They’re wrong on these as much as they’re right,” he says.

Moving to the other QB in this game, William Hill has an Over/Under prop on Brady rushing attempts that opened 2.5 at a price of -110 on each side, and now the Under is -165.

“That was a big mover. They think he won’t rush the ball three times,” Bogdanovich says, adding he’s not so sure about that. “If Brady kneels down at the end of the game, that might be two or three rushes right there. He’s the best QB sneaker in the history of the game. If they’re in that position, he’ll sneak for sure.

“It’s a crapshoot, and that’s the beauty of this thing. People have their opinions, we have ours, and we’ll see what happens in the end.”

CG Technology

Three prop bets stood out to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, which operates sportsbooks at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip, along with several other shops around town.

All three offerings are tied into scoring. First up: Will there be a score in the last two minutes of the second half? No opened -105 and is now at -132.

Second: Will there be a score in the first 3:30 of the first quarter? That’s seen huge movement on the No, which opened -190 and is now at -400.

Finally: Total touchdowns combined by both teams. CG books opened at 5.5, with the Over at -140, and that price is now down to -105, with bettors jumping on the Under.

BetDSI

Super Bowl proposition bets often wander far away from the action on the field, and offshore sportsbooks such as BetDSI recognize that fact. Further, offshore sites have much more latitude on the type of props they can offer, which leads to this gem:

How many times will the word “Dilly” be said during the broadcast? BetDSI set the Over/Under at 12.5, and It’s important to note the phrasing, since generally “Dilly” comes in twos for the popular commercial campaign, as in “Dilly Dilly.” So, seven “Dilly Dilly” drops, and the Over is in – something bettors took so strongly to heart that the prop is now off the board.

“We actually had to pull this prop off the board due to the overwhelming action received on the Over,” says Scott Cooley, odds consultant for BetDSI. “Bettors are assuming we were a bit too light on the total, or something has leaked that we haven't seen, which is possible. We decided to stand pat with the liability we have instead of re-posting with a different number or heavy juice. Here's to hoping we don't hear more than a dozen ‘Dillys’ from the folks at Bud Light on Sunday.”

Will Al Michaels or Cris Collinsworth say “GOAT” (presumably in shorthand reference to Greatest Of All Time)? Yes opened +360 and No -500, and it’s now at +240/-300, so Yes is drawing the bulk of the action.

Who will Rodney Harrison predict to win? Now of course, Harrison was a former standout defensive back for New England. The Patriots opened a -330 favorite, with Philly (or should I say Philly Philly?) +240 on the buyback. It’s now exploded to Pats -550/Eagles +350.

TheGreek.com

Scott Kaminsky, director of this offshore book, said he’s taken a couple eye-catching pops on proposition bets, including on: Will more points be scored in the first quarter, or the third quarter?

“We had sharp action on third quarter -130,” he says. “Now we’re at -150 on the third quarter and +125 on the first quarter.”

Other props getting attention at TheGreek.com:

• Will the last kickoff of the game result in a touchback? Kaminsky says “a smart guy” took No at +115, moving No to even money, with Yes a -130 favorite.

• Will there be a score in the first seven minutes of the game? No opened +105, drew sharp action and moved to -120, with Yes -110 on the buyback.

Nevada and offshore sportsbooks hope the money keeps rolling in on the props as the weekend approaches – provided the books end up on the right side, of course. Bookmakers certainly don’t want to see the big plus-money props hit, such as Yes on a safety or overtime, but props tend to be a good market for the books.

“In general, yes, the props always do well, because it’s the Super Bowl,” Kaminsky said, alluding to heavy volume. “Some years, the props can make or break your Super Bowl.”

Posted : February 1, 2018 12:49 am

shazman

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NFL Underdogs: Super Bowl LII plus-money prop picks and predictions
Jan 30, 2018 |
By: Jason Logan
NFL Underdogs: Super Bowl LII plus-money prop picks and predictions
Jason Logan may not like the Eagles as underdogs in Super Bowl LII but there are plenty of prop "pups" he's sizing up for Big Game betting.
Photo By - USA Today Images

What do you do when you write a weekly column titled “NFL Underdogs” but don’t like the only underdog on the board?

That’s the question I’ve been wrestling with the past two weeks leading into Super Bowl LII, ever since the Philadelphia Eagles tore a strip off the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. I’ll admit, it’s tough not to like the underdog Eagles against the New England Patriots in Minnesota this Sunday.

Philly won outright as a pup in both playoff games, the Eagles are actually sporting dog masks in celebration of their underdog role, and overall teams getting the points are 9-1 against the spread in the postseason.

For a guy who has to pick underdog ATS winners week in and week out during NFL season, the Eagles and the points seems like the perfect fit – almost too perfect. And if I’ve learned anything from 15 years of breaking down sports betting, it's that if a bet seems "perfect" it probably isn’t.

So, here I sit with the Patriots -5 and a hole in my final NFL Underdogs column of the year. Hmmmm, if there was only another way to bet on the Super Bowl…

First half money line: Eagles +135 / Patriots -160

OK, so I’m not completely counting out the Eagles in Super Bowl LII. As we’ve seen from the Patriots, in last year’s Super Bowl and the AFC title game, they can be a little slow out of the blocks. Plus, Philadelphia looked tremendous to start the NFC Championship, pretty much putting Minnesota to bed in the first two quarters.

Bill Belichick has carved his face in the Mount Rushmore of head coaches by making smart halftime adjustments and so not only do I like the Eagles first-half moneyline at +135 for a sort of bizarro middle of the Patriots -5 spread wager, but I’m also sprinkling some action (Salt Bae style) on the first half/full time moneyline prop of Eagles/Patriots at +600.

Pick: Eagles (+135), First half/Full time ML Eagles/Patriots (+600)

First quarter Over/Under 9.5 (Over -120/Under EVEN)

This is the one Super Bowl bet I make every year without thought. Teams are always too amped up to start the Super Bowl, which means defenders are flying around the field like Mexican Luchadores and offenses are a little tight, which often leads to overthrown balls, dropped catches and some careless carries.

As Ashton Grewal noted in his specific breakdown of this prop, there have been a total of 37 points scored in the opening 15 minutes of the past six Super Bowls, which averages out to about six points per first quarter.

Last year’s Big Game, which had a first-quarter total of 13 points, posted double goose eggs from New England and Atlanta. And to add to that, the Patriots have failed to score a single first-quarter point in any of their seven Super Bowl appearances during the Brady/Belichick Era. Insane. God damn insane.

Pick: Under 9.5 (EVEN)

First score of the game: Touchdown -160, Other +140

Due to the safety slamming sportsbooks for three years in a row between Super Bowl 46 and Super Bowl 48, some bookies aren’t offering a prop on a safety being the first score of the game. Instead, we’re left with this vanilla option.

As mentioned, first quarters are generally low scoring and the Patriots have taken their sweet-ass time getting on the board in Big Games. New England also boasts a “bend but don’t break” defense that is much better than the stats would indicate. Its opponents score a touchdown in only 48 percent of their trips inside the red zone – among the lowest in the league.

With those factors in mind, I could see a field goal drawing first blood Super Sunday and even if a safety does open scoring (while not providing that classic +7,500 payout), at least the “other” has us covered.

Pick: Other +140

First turnover: Interception -140, Fumble +120

I have to credit my Covers Sunday Live Wire co-host Maddy Palmer with this pick. The second she said it, it sounded like money.

With the Eagles likely to play keep-away from Brady & Co., which means a lot of running plays, and New England utilizing a trio of running backs (White, Lewis, Burkhead) with handoffs and short tosses, the opportunity for an early fumble is very much alive.

As mentioned, offenses can find themselves battling Big Game jitters in the opening minutes, leading to miscommunications and careless slip-ups. We saw some of those from Philadelphia in the opening frame of the NFC Divisional Round against the Falcons, in which the Eagles put the ball on the ground in each of their first two possessions.

Note: If this pick doesn’t come through, blame Maddy.

Pick: Fumble +120

Will there be a 2-point conversion attempted? Yes +145, No -170

Due to the nature of this pointspread – sticking around the dead number of five points – I’m thinking we get some weirdo scoring in the Super Bowl. All it takes is a missed extra point to start a team thinking about going for two, and we’ve seen enough botched PATs this season.

Philadelphia is no stranger to going for the deuce, recording six successful 2-point conversions this season – most in the NFL and double what the next NFL team on the list had converted. The Patriots have converted twice.

In conjunction with this prop, you can also grab plus-money odds on “Yes” there will be a successful 2-point conversion, which is currently priced at +250. Might as well go all in.

Pick: Yes attempt +145 / Yes successful +250

Player to score first touchdown

Since the Patriots are the favorites, I spent my limited energy looking into their historical scoring tendencies this season and discovered that while New England has been beaten to the touchdown punch in both playoff games, it has scored a TD first in 12 of its 18 games overall.

In those dozen games, half of those first-strike touchdowns were scored by versatile RB Rex Burkhead, who is paying out at +1,200 to be the first player to score a touchdown in Super Bowl LII.

Burkhead, who allegedly is the player who injured Brady’s hand in practice ahead of the AFC Championship, has been slowed by a knee injury in recent weeks. He missed Week 17 and the Divisional Round before getting limited run in the conference title game. However, he’s now had an extra week off and could get a crack at the end zone when the Pats step inside the 20-yard line Sunday.

Pick: Rex Burkhead +1,200

Brent Celek receiving yards Over/Under 3.5 yards

Celek has been an Eagle since 2007. His role in the offense has declined with age and with the emergence of fellow tight end Zach Ertz. He boasted 76 receptions for 971 yards and eight touchdowns in 2009, and has watched those numbers slide throughout the years. Celek had just 14 receptions in 2016 and only 13 this season.

He didn’t have a catch in the free-for-all NFC Championship (targeted once) but did reel in one pass for a total of six yards versus Atlanta in the Divisional Round. On the year, he’s averaging 10 yards per reception and could be a secret weapon for the Eagles in Super Bowl LII.

With Ertz drawing the attention of the Patriots defense and Philadelphia using a lot of playaction to keep New England guessing, Celek could easily slip out off a block, snag a pass, and find himself four or more yards down field. We’re not asking for the world Brent – just four yards.

Pick: Over 3.5 +120

Color of the Gatorade bath

Since 2000, water has been dumped on the Super Bowl-winning coach seven times, orange five, yellow two, blue once and four Super Bowl finales have gone without a Gatorade bath (joyless), including last year when the Patriots won in overtime. Simply playing the odds, I've got to go with Water/Clear at +385. You know for certain there's plenty of water around but you have no clue what color Gatorade is being served up on the sidelines.

Pick: Water/Clear +385

Last week: 2-0 ATS
Playoffs: 5-1 ATS
Season: 25-30 AT

Posted : February 1, 2018 12:55 am

shazman

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Super Bowl 52 Betting Update
February 1, 2018
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The VegasInsider.com Super Bowl 52 Betting Update will provide daily betting updates from Micah Roberts in Las Vegas for this year's NFL finale between New England and Philadelphia, which is set for Sunday, Feb. 4, 2018.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 13 years.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Props | Super Bowl 52 Line Moves

Update - Thursday, Feb. 1, 2018 - 4:30 p.m. ET

As it sits Thursday afternoon, MGM Resorts book VP Jay Rood will be rooting for the Patriots and needing quarterback Tom Brady to win a Super Bowl isn't exactly the worse thing to need for the house.

"Yeah, it's not like we need the Browns to win a game to avoid a winless season,"said Rood with a chuckle.

Last week Rood took the biggest known bet in Las Vegas during the two week Super Bowl season. There's no official word from Rood or MGM Resorts on the exact amount, only Rood staying it was a multi-million dollar bet on the Eagles. He's got liability on the Eagles at +5.5 and also the Eagles money-line at +185, +180 and +170.

He said his cash disparity wagered on the money-line has 70 percent on the Eagles and 30 percent on the Patriots. That's a scary thought on the risk where that 70 percent slice of the pie is paying out at 9-to-5 odds (Bet $100 to win $180).

"I'm not panicking," Rood said. "We've still got a long ways to go and I'm expecting a lot more six-figure type wagers on the Patriots. I had a guy inquire about a large wager on them already today."

Rood dropped the Patriots money-line to -180 on Thursday afternoon in an attempt to lure more action. The best Patriots numbers in town are at William Hill and Golden Nugget at -175/+155.

William Hill books took a $1 million wager Monday on the Eagles money-line at +165. On Wednesday, the William Hill book in The Bahamas took a $1.1 million bet on the Eagles +4.5 -110 and $500,000 on +4.5 -115.

MGM Resorts handle on the game has already surpassed what they did last season at same juncture when Nevada set a record ($138.5 million) for the second consecutive year.

"We're ahead of last year because we've had some large wagers earlier than usual, but Saturday's action should be a huge barometer of where we're actually at because we wrote a ton," said Rood who also had additional write with their phone accounts being in service for a month.

"The phones were a big boost to us," he said. "Last year at this time we had 1,000 active accounts and this time around we have 12,000."

Wise guys love the phones and MGM takes action from most of them. Last season was also the first year MGM books offered in-progress wagering on the Super Bowl, so the combination between in-progress and 12,000 accounts should easily help MGM surpass their own Super Bowl write record.

No official record to verify, but I'd easily lay -250 that MGM Resorts writes the biggest chuck of Super Bowl action in Nevada. They've got 12 books lined up and down all the popular parts of the strip and dozens of whales loaded with cash and unlimited credit flying in for the game.

The best Patriots number in town is -4 at the Westgate, South Point, Station Casinos and Caesars Palace. They're all waiting for the Pats money, but not quite begging for it yet. Don't expect -3.5 anytime soon. The rest of the books are at -4.5 with Boyd Gaming at -4.5 -105.

The majority of the books are still cool with their total at 48, but John Avello at Wynn moved to 48.5 on Thursday. Boyd Gaming went there Wednesday -- they were at a high of 49 last week. Stations and Stratosphere are also at 48.5.

Update - Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2018 - 6:30 p.m. ET

Veteran bookmaker Bob Scucci has been known as one of the more conservative bookmakers in Las Vegas from his tenure running the famed Stardust sports book to his current position as head of Boyd Gaming's 12 Las Vegas books. But for this Super Bowl, he's been way ahead of the market with the best favorite number since odds were initially offered last week. He's long on the Eagles, but he's seeing Patriots money filtering through which caused him to go from Patriots -4 -110 to -4 -120, his first movement upward on the Pats side.

"We got a lot of Eagles bets early on in the five-figure range that piled up with no support of the Patriots," Scucci said Wednesday afternoon for his office at the Orleans Hotel and Casino. "But when we went to +4 we we're still seeing large wagers on the Eagles and its didn't stop when we offered +4 -115. Now we're finally starting to see more Patriots action with some sharp play getting involved."

The Boyd properties initially opened Patriots -6.5 -105 and within 30 minutes they were at -5.5. Then they were the first to go to -4.5 four days later, the first to -4 a day later and now he's been maneuvering with the juice price with hopes that he doesn't have to move off the hard number of -4.

It's still a long haul with so much action yet to pass through the bets windows.

"We've probably handled about 15 percent of what we'll eventually see," he said. "I think between Friday, Saturday and Sunday we'll get 80 percent of overall action."

It's looking like the Nevada record of $138.5 million handled on the Super Bowl will be shattered making it the third straight year a record is broken. Thank you props, thank you mobile phone wagering and thank you in-progress wagering.

Boyd Gaming needs the Patriots a little more in Super Bowl futures, but they still do well with the Eagles. Win-Win.

Scucci made the comparison of this line movement to what happened in the Broncos last two Super Bowls.

"When Denver played the Seahawks, it was Broncos money early on moving Seattle from short favorite to Denver -1.5 or -2 and wise guys took the Seahawks on game day," he said. When Denver played Carolina, everyone bet what they saw last which was Carolina winning big in the NFC title game and Denver winning a close game in the AFC title game, and it was all Carolina money early, but it flipped on game day to us needing Carolina.

The Seahawks 43-8 blowout over the Broncos in Super Bowl 48 propelled the state to its largest win ever at $19.6 million.

The shocker of the late Wednesday afternoon was that despite an appearance of Patriots money arriving in town and Boyd moving to -4 -120, Caesars Palace and Wynn Resorts both dropped to -4 shortly after for the first time.

Update - Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2018 - 2:00 p.m. ET

When exactly is the big Patriots money going to show up in Las Vegas?

"We saw a lot of Patriots money yesterday," Wynn sports book director John Avello said Wednesday afternoon. "We took a half-million on them yesterday, no, make it three-quarters of a million on them between the point-spread and money-line. We also got a lot more action on the Over as well. We hadn't seen too much on the total yet until yesterday."

Avello hasn't moved the spread despite the action. He's been at -4.5 since Friday after opening -6.5 following the championship games. He also hasn't moved the total off 48 since then. However, he did move the Patriots money-line up to -185/+165.

Despite the Patriots money, things still aren't even yet.

"Oh yeah, we're still high on the Eagles right now, but's it's evening out," Avello said.

The Patriots money is encouraging, but Avello is working his 31st Super Bowl behind the counter in Las Vegas and never assumes or expects anything.

"We've got 90 percent of our action still to come and I can't begin to tell you who we'll need by the time this game kicks off," he said. "I just don't know yet, I could be $2 million high on the Pats by then."

The clientele at Wynn is completely different from the average visitor staying throughout town. Some of these guys flow into town with a few million to get some thrills with and most of the time they don't even care what the number is when betting. These guys were laying -4.5 when they could have laid -4 at multiple bet shops. They did, however, get the best of the money-line. Several books were showing -180.

So what can we expect in the next 36 hours? Has the lowest number flat-lined at -4? Will we see sharper action jump in now on the Pats as it could be the lowest it'll get? This story is going to really heat up on Thursday and Friday as more of these whales start arriving from the long line of private jets streaming into town.

Update - Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2018 - 5:00 p.m. ET

A little bit of Super Bowl betting action was happening Tuesday. Boyd Gaming had the first sports books in Las Vegas dropping down to -4 (-110) on Friday and after a full weekend of action they raised the juice on the Eagles to + 4 -115 (Patriots -4 -105).

Going to -3.5 is surely not an option book director Bob Scucci wants to entertain at this juncture, but the rising risk is obviously causing some uneasiness. Scucci has had the best number in two different moves on two separate days and didn't get the Patriots money desired.

The same Super Bowl betting patterns happening in Las Vegas books appear to be going on up north in Reno as well. Philadelphia remains popular.

"It's been steady so far," said Atlantis Reno sports book director Marc Nelson. "Most of the big bets we've taken we're just following the Eagles move."

The Atlantis opened Patriots -6 -105 and a total at 48 just before the conference championship games were over. They dropped to -5.5 two days later and Saturday dropped to -4.5. On Thursday, they attached a small piece of extra juice to the Eagles +4.5 -115 (Patriots -4.5 -105).

"We've had a smattering of some Over money, but we haven't had to get off 48 the entire time," said Nelson, who previously ran books in Las Vegas for most of his 25-year career.

"I don't see this ending up being too big of a decision for us," he said. "I know the Patriots money is eventually coming and we're in good shape with futures."

Nelson admitted he was currently long on the Eagles and asked why anyone would bet the Patriots right now as the number and money-line is dropping. He's not alarmed yet saying that 90 percent of his overall Super Bowl action has yet to arrive.

The Atlantis posted its Super Bowl props on Saturday and a couple of them have stood out with bettors placing limit wagers.

"They bet a lot of 'NO' in whether or not there will be a score in last 2 minutes of the game," Nelson said. "It started at +175 and its all the way down to +115 now. They also liked Jay Ajayi getting Over 1.5 receptions."

Now, as for some bad news for a few bettors that loved the MLB season win total scalps at the Atlantis, which has been posting them first in Nevada for the past decade -- usually in early February. Nelson, who took the director job in early December, said he doesn't want the Atlantis to post the first number any more.

Update - Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2018 - 10:45 a.m. ET

There was a whole lot of movement Monday on the Super Bowl 52 odds board with -5 finally making a complete disappearance in Las Vegas, a couple books dropping down to -4 and another taking a $1 million wager on the Eagles money-line.

The Golden Nugget was the last book in town to move to -4.5, and it happened after the Westgate, Boyd Gaming, South Point and Station Casinos all moved the Patriots down to -4. Respected offshore book 5Dimes.eu also moved to -4 shortly after the South Point did.

William Hill also dropped its money-line down to -180/+160 on Monday thanks to a $1 million wager accepted on the Eagles to win outright at +165. It's the largest bet William Hill has taken for this Super Bowl. Should the Eagles win, the bettor will cash in $2.65 Million.

The Eagles risk is REALLY piling up in Nevada.

The Patriots -180 on the money-line is the lowest in town and offered by the South Point, CG Technology, Wynn Resorts, Golden Nugget, Stratosphere and Station Casinos, along with William Hill.

I'll bet it gets lower. Keep waiting if you want Patriots money-line.

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Posted : February 1, 2018 10:53 pm

shazman

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Posts: 58610

Member Moderator

Topic starter

SB52 Props Betting Report
February 1, 2018
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

If you’re playing ‘yes’ and ‘over’ on a lot of props for Sunday’s Super Bowl between the Patriots and Eagles, chances are you’re a casual bettor. If you’re betting ‘no’ and ‘under’, you’re probably a more seasoned gambler.

That’s according to the observations of two of the most prominent bookmakers in Las Vegas.

“If you’re betting ‘no’, you’re 99 percent a sharpie; and if you’re betting ‘yes’, you’re 99 percent a recreational player,” said Nick Bogdanovich, head of trading at William Hill U.S.

Added Chris Andrews, sports book director at the South Point, “Usually, (sharps) bet the ‘no’ or the ‘under’. Then the public comes in, and they usually bet ‘yes’ or ‘over’. So we just try to get it balanced between the two and see how it all works out.”

There’s not necessarily inherent value on the ‘no’ and ‘under’ on these props. Books’ anticipation of the flood of public money doesn’t mean they’re pricing ‘yes’ and ‘over’ artificially high.

“We have to respect the wiseguys, too,” Andrew said, “so our objective is to put out the best price we can and see where the action takes us.”

Here’s how sharp action has moved the odds on a few Super Bowl props at the South Point:

-- Total punts: opened 10.5 (over -120), bet down to 9 (under -150)
-- Total TDs by both teams: opened 6 (under -140), bet down to 6 (under -170)
-- Total TDs by the Eagles: opened 3.5 (under -160), bet down to 3.5 (under -320)

Bogdanovich offered a few examples of where sharps are weighing in at William Hill’s chain of books (you can see a list below of the 10 most popular props at William Hill in terms of number of dollars wagered and number of bets)

-- Will there be a special teams or defensive TD: ‘no’ opened -160, bet up -210
-- Will there be a successful fourth-down conversion: Opened yes -300/no +250, with ‘no’ action pushing line to -220/+190
-- Tom Brady rushing attempts: opened 2.5 (-110), bet down to 2.5 (under -170)

Of the sharps’ overall prop-betting tendencies, Andrews said, “Right now, we probably need a high-scoring game, but that’s because the wiseguys have been in and bet the ‘unders’ and ‘nos’ on all these things. But that has a pretty good chance of changing by game time, when the public comes in, the tourists come in.”

The safety prop

There have been nine safeties in the 51 Super Bowls so far, the most recent of which came in the 2014 game, when the Seahawks took a 2-0 lead on the Broncos on the first play from scrimmage. That play vaulted the popularity of the “will there be a safety” prop. In fact, just days after the Seattle’s 43-8 victory, the South Point hung a line on the safety prop for the following year’s Super Bowl.

As of Wednesday at William Hill, the safety prop was the most popular prop bet in terms of ticket count, and the second most popular in terms of dollars wagered.

To our point above, the sharps are laying big prices on the ‘no.’

“We’re taking a lot of ‘no’ bets, and when you lay 7-, 8-to-1, it adds up fast,” Bogdanovich said. “That’s pretty much the case every year. That’s not a shocker.; That prop draws such good action, it’s ridiculous.”

The public’s love for Brady

At the South Point, the prop on Brady’s total completions have been bet up from an opener of 23.5 to 26.5 – by the public, of course.

Beyond the completions prop, casual bettors have been hammering ‘over’ on all things Brady, including gross passing yards (opened 285.5) and number of attempts (opened 39.5), as well as in head-to-head props against Eagles QB Nick Foles.

“All the money’s on Brady” in matchups against Foles, Andrews said, “We’ve got a pretty good handicap on it (Brady opened -25.5 in passing yards and -0.5 in touchdown passes), but they’re still betting it.”

Half a week before kickoff, thanks to some deep-pocketed gamblers, books are in the rare position of needing the favorite to win the Super Bowl outright. One of those gamblers is an unidentified bettor who has placed multiple six- and seven-figure wagers around town on the Eagles money-line, funded by a huge bankroll built by winning every bet he made during the World Series.

“We need Foles to have a pretty good game. I don’t know if we want him to have a good enough game where the Eagles win, certainly not at this point,” said Andrews, whose shop wrote a half-million bet from the mystery bettor.

Is the coin flip really that bad a bet?

Coin flip props are ones wiseguys don’t touch, but they’re sure popular among the public. At William Hill U.S,. “heads” is the 13th most popular bet in terms of ticket count; neither “heads” nor tails, however, ranks among the top 20 in dollars wagered.

Are bettors crazy to bet on something as purely random as a coin flip? Perhaps not that crazy, suggested legendary oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough, especially at -102 vig, odds offered at the South Point and Westgate SuperBook.

“Coin toss prop holding steady at LVSuperBook at -102 each side. Thinks it is a stupid bet? Maybe, but most players never ever get a bet at less than 1% hold,” Roxborough said in tweet this week.

While bookmakers scoff at bets on the coin flip – “I still can’t believe anyone would bet a coin flip,” Andrews laughed. “Last year, we wrote an insane amount of money to that prop, and I just laugh every time I see that,” added Bogdanovich – Roxy has a point.

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Sorry, casual bettors, but whether or not you care to admit it, you probably have about a coin-flip chance at most bets you make laying -110. From that perspective, laying -102 on an actual coin flip isn’t that bad a proposition.

Of course, most bettors have a certain degree of faith in their own opinions, and you can’t really have an opinion on whether a coin is going to land heads or tails.

"You like to at least believe that (your opinion gives you an edge)," Andrews said. “Here (with coin-flip props), there’s no believing anything. It’s totally random.”

Props handle

While the betting handle on Super Bowl props has been close to equaling the amount bet on the actual game, neither Andrews nor Bogdanovich anticipates that will be the case this year. The inordinate number of large bets on this year’s game, particularly on the Eagles, is making it nearly impossible for props to catch up.

“Last year, it was pretty close to 50 percent, but I don’t think it will get that high this year just because we’ve had some really big action on them game itself,” Andrews said.

Bogdanovich painted a similar picture.

“We took two seven-figure bets (one on the Eagles money-line, one of Philly +4.5) and there’s another one coming,” Bogdanovich said. “I don’t think it will get to 50/50 just because of the aberrational large bets. Other than that, I would have said it probably would have crept over the 50/50 mark in favor of the props.”

Overall, handle is extremely healthy, and many around Vegas envision the record Super Bowl handle of $138.48, set last year, getting broken.

“I think, for us, we’ll set a record handle and I think we’ll write more prop business, but it won’t be 50 percent,” Andrews said.