Super Bowl Newsletters

GOLDSHEET

PITTSBURGH (14-4) vs. ARIZONA (12-7)
Sunday, February 1, 2009 Night at Tampa, FL (Grass Field)
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Pittsburgh14-411-7 23 15 106 206 45-19-21 76 162 26-9-15 +9 2.5 4.1
Arizona 12-7 11-7 27 26 80 286 62-16-39 105 225 60-15-42 +9 -.4 5.3
(07-ARIZ. 21-Pitt 14...A.19-17 A.25/86 P.26/77 A.21/35/0/215 P.17/32/2/205 A.2 P.0)
(07-ARIZONA +5' 21-14...SR: Pittsburgh 31-23-3)

LOOKING AT ARIZONA Bill Bidwill’s Cardinals…in the Super Bowl? What next, the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series? (Oh, right, that just happened, too). Indeed, we at TGS have been around long enough to remember when it was considered a plus for the Big Red that Bill Bidwill bought out brother Stormy to assume full control of the franchise in 1972. True, the Cardinals haven’t won a championship since being based in Chicago 61 years ago, and they haven’t been involved in a title game of any sort in 60 years. But the franchise did feature several contending teams in the ‘60s and ‘70s, with the likes of QB Charley Johnson, TE Jackie Smith, OT Ernie McMillan, and DB Larry Wilson perennial Pro Bowlers, while a later generation of Big Red stars such as QB Jim Hart, WR Mel Gray, RB Terry Metcalf, and OT Dan Dierdorf spearheaded one of the NFL’s most exciting offenses in the mid ‘70s when the Cards were again a serious contender under HC Don Coryell. But until this season, the postseason drought since the Coryell era was interrupted only by a wild card appearance (and upset of Dallas in a first-round playoff game) ten years ago. Many attributed the ongoing failures to Bill Bidwill’s increasing incompetence as an owner, although it should be noted that son Michael has since taken over much of the administrative responsibilities, and that it was Michael who recommended Steeler o.c. Ken Whisenhunt be hired as coach prior to the 2007 campaign.But nobody then really foresaw a Cardinal Super Bowl appearance coming anytime soon. Still, we think Arizona is better than its 2008 regular-season record of 9-7, as its three straight playoff wins indicate. Remember, the Cards had the watereddown NFC West in their pocket by mid-November, and they understandably lost some focus afterward. Arizona, which developed a substantial home-field edge this season at Glendale, was admittedly not as menacing on the road, especially in trips to the eastern time zone where the Big Red lost all five of its regular-season games (some convincingly so). But that time zone bugaboo was put to rest with the Cards’ 33-13 whipping of host Carolina in the division playoff round. And that performance, along with Arizona’s other two impressive postseason successes, suggests that we ought not downgrade the Cards too much for some of their regular-season flaws that have not proven costly in their playoff run.Specifically, after ranking last in NFL rush stats during the regular season,the playoff version has committed itself to establishing an infantry diversion for gunslinging vet QB Kurt Warner (8-2 SU in NFL Playoffs; 3-0 as a dog). If not dominating, the new-look ground attack has at least proven effective, forcing opponents to pay attention, adding a bit more bite to Warner’s play-action repertoire, and helping provide an extra tick or two for Warner to locate his receivers downfield. The rejuvenated Edgerrin James, fresh after being relegated to backup duty at midseason, has re-emerged as a threat at RB with a string of impressive rushing efforts and is complemented effectively by hard-running rookie Tim Hightower, who had earlier supplanted James in the lineup and who scored the winning TD in the NFC title game vs. the Eagles on a middle screen pass. Make no mistake, however, the nucleus of the offense is the 37-year-old Warner, who embraced the starting role in preseason after HC Whisenhunt decided 3rd-year Matt Leinart hadn’t demonstrated the necessary leadership. Warner (67%, 30 TDs) played out of memory for most of the season, enjoying his best year since his Super Bowl days with the Rams nearly a decade ago. His quick release mostly allowed him to avoid sacks (the Cards ranked 7th best in that category) and set the table for rapport with his dynamic trio of wideouts (Larry Fitzgerald, the recently-controversial Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston), each of whom gained more than 1000 receiving yards. And Whisenhunt’s creative bent has been embraced by o.c. Todd Haley, who has picked the right time to dip into the Cards’ bag of tricks (notably the fleaflicker that resulted in a 62-yard Warner-to-Fitzgerald TD pass in the NFC title win over the Eagles). Meanwhile, the Big Red “D” has also stepped things up a notch in the postseason, stunting and blitzing for underrated d.c. Clancy Pendergast and forcing a whopping 12 TOs in playoff action. Plenty of playmakers have been unleashed, including veteran SS Adrian Wilson, FS Antrel Rolle & rookie CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the 2ndary, and DT Darnell Dockett & LB Karlos Dansby in an active front seven that has proven disruptive in the postseason and which muted Carolina’s punishing ground attack in that noteworthy playoff win at Charlotte. There has been nothing fluky about the Cardinals’ playoff march, with the wins vs. the favored Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles. To paraphrase the late actor John Houseman from the old Smith Barney commercials, “The Cardinals have gotten to the Super Bowl the old-fashioned way…they e-a-r-n-e-d it.” LOOKING AT PITTSBURGH The Steelers fought through a somewhat disjointed first two months, starting the season 6-3 while combating injuries to QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Willie Parker, starting RG Kendall Simmons, LT Marvel Smith, and promising rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall. Moreover, Pittsburgh went into the season needing to replace stalwart LG Alan Faneca (young veteran Chris Kemoeatu took over). Because of the OL injuries and while the current starting five—LT Max Starks (a converted RT who had lost his starting job), LG Kemoeatu, solid C Justin Hartwig, new starting RG Darnell Stapleton, and emerging third-year RT Willie Colon—was melding, Roethlisberger often took a beating (nine sacks in third game at Philly), struggling through shoulder & back injuries and concussions. Thus, the battered Roethlisberger garnered only 17 TD passes vs. 15 ints., while Parker (out 5 games; less than 100% in several others) totaled only 791 YR and 3.8 ypc. With the big QB instinctively prone to hold onto the ball extra long in order to make plays, the Steelers gave up 49 sacks, 29th in the league. However, the re-made OL reportedly began holding its own weekly film sessions to cut down on its mistakes, and Roethlisberger began meeting the “big uglies” for dinners to further improve chemistry. Backup RB Mewelde Moore (588 YR) boosted his output. Parker gradually fought past his knee injury. But while the offense was overcoming the injuries and changes, the Steelers’ were able to rely on their intimidating, hard-hitting, and oftendeceptive defense, orchestrated by d.c. and zone blitz guru Dick LeBeau (who THE GOLD SHEET believes belongs in the Hall of Fame). That stubborn stop unit finished first in yards, points & pass defense and was No. 2 in rush defense and sacks. Tall CB Ike Taylor (6-2) became one of the best cover men in the league, playmaking SS Troy Polamalu collected 7 ints., second-year OLB LaMarr Woodley (11½ sacks) emerged as a major force, and OLB James Harrison (16 sacks) was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. Only one team (Tennessee, with 323 yards) gained more than 300 yards vs. the 2008 Men of Steel all season. With its offense carrying more of the load (28.5 ppg its last 8, despite frequent marginal weather) later in the season, Pittsburgh closed with a rush, going 8-1 straight up (including the playoffs), 7-2 vs. the spread, with 6 of the 8 wins by 7 points or more. The Robert Frost-quoting Mike Tomlin, at 36, thus became the youngest HC to reach the Super Bowl, carrying the torch for a once long-suffering franchise that is now seeking to become the first in NFL history to win six Super Bowls. One major concern is the sprained MCL suffered by go-to WR Hines Ward (MVP of Super Bowl XL in Detroit), the team’s leader with 81 recs. and arguably the league’s best blocker among wideouts.SUPER BOWL XLIII If we’ve learned anything from football playoff games over the years, it’s that results of previous regular-season meetings are hardly foolproof indicators of what might transpire in a postseason rematch. That’s especially true if the last meeting between the teams occurred in a prior campaign. Nonetheless, because of the unique dynamics involved between Pittsburgh and Arizona, a brief revisit of 2007’s 21-14 Cardinal win Sept. 30 at Glendale is in order. The Steelers entered that game hot, having scored 97 points in winning their first 3 games in impressive fashion, but they were mostly held in check by the Arizona defense that afternoon. Indeed, Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes thought Whisenhunt’s familiarity with his old team proved a bonus for the Big Red. “I think coach Whiz knew some of our weak points of our offense,” said Holmes. “He was sending guys left and right, bringing pressure as much as he could to try and disrupt our offense.” The Steelers’ usually robust infantry was slowed to a crawl, Willie Parker gaining only 37 YR on 19 carries, while QB Ben Roethlisberger tossed a pair of picks and was sacked 4 times. Meanwhile, Kurt Warner came off the bench to relieve the ineffective Matt Leinart for Arizona, with the vet QB leading a second-half comeback that was augmented by a 73- yard punt return TD, courtesy of Steve Breaston. Arizona, with Edgerrin James gaining 77 YR, outrushed Pittsburgh, while Card WR Larry Fitzgerald caught 10 passes despite being the focus of Steeler pass coverage while teammate Anquan Boldin was out with an injury. Thus, it’s apparent that Whisenhunt’s familiarity with his old Steeler troops made the difference in the last meeting. That doesn’t mean a repeat performance is in order; certainly, Pittsburgh is a different bunch than it was in September of ‘07, now having two full seasons under HC Mike Tomlin. But the Cards, deeper themselves into their coach’s new regime, are hardly the same team they were last year, either. They’re a lot better! We acknowledged some of Arizona’s flaws in the foregoing column, but it’s worth noting that Whisenhunt & Co. have had nearly a full season to make adjustments, which is exactly what they’ve done in the postseason. Granted, the robust Steel Curtain defense could prove an effective blockade. But the Big Red have successfully balanced their offense in the playoffs, thanks to the reemergence of Edgerrin James. And Warner has dealt successfully with some of the NFC’s best defenses in the postseason, with the Cards cracking the 30- point barrier in each of their three playoff games. Indeed, it would be hard to argue that the Steeler defense is playing any better than Philadelphia’s was entering the NFC title game, but Warner & Co. jumped on the Eagles early and had enough poise and presence to weather the desperate Philly rally, resolutely driving 72 yards in 14 plays for the winning TD in the waning moments at Glendale. Versus the Julius Peppers-led Carolina pass rush in the division round, and against the variety of blitzes of Eagle d.c Jim Johnson in the NFC title game, Warner’s savvy reads and quick release helped diffuse the best of pass rushes, even as it can against Dick LeBeau’s patented zone blitzers. And no opposing secondary has figured out a way to slow the rampant Fitzgerald in the postseason. Forgive us for not being convinced that the 2008 Steeler offense is an unstoppable machine like some of the old Pittsburgh Super Bowl teams, when Terry Bradshaw was blessed with future Hall-of-Famers such as Franco Harris, John Stallworth, and Lynn Swann as his primary weapons. The current Steeler attack is far less lethal. Granted, Big Ben’s wherewithal is noteworthy, but his pass protection remains suspect, and the various stunts and blitzes routinely employed by Clancy Pendergast’s Cardinal defense are acknowledged as the best way to disrupt Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh attack (which Whisenhunt knows a thing or two about). Further, key wideout Hines Ward enters the week at less than 100% due to his knee injury, and RB Parker has had to fight through an injury-plagued campaign, rarely flashing his old form (the division round win over San Diego, when Parker gained 146 YR, being one of the exceptions). And no stop unit has been as opportunistic as Arizona’s in the postseason, forcing 12 big turnovers in three games.As for the Big Red’s acknowledged shortcomings on the road (especially in the eastern time zone) during the regular season, it can be argued the Cards might have temporarily exorcized those demons with their runaway win at Carolina, which boasted the only 8-0 home record during the regular season.The dynamics of the Super Bowl, where the teams spend almost a week at the game’s locale, are far different than a normal, hurried-up, regular-season road trip, anyway. Besides, it should also be noted that Pittsburgh was not infallible away from home this season, falling embarrassingly short in two of its toughest tests away from Heinz Field—smothered by the Eagle defense in a 15-6 earlyseason loss at the Linc, and outclassed decisively at Tennessee in a late- December AFC showdown resulting in a 31-14 Titans win. Even the Steelers’ most notable road win was a controversial one, with Santonio Holmes’ disputed TD catch the difference in a last-minute 13-9 escape at Baltimore. Hardly the stuff that suggests a dominating Super Bowl performance, away from Heinz Field, is in the offing.We acknowledge the Steelers’ enviable qualities, especially their rock-ribbed defense and ability to create momentum-changing plays, either with their stop unit or special teams. Another “Troy Polamalu special” could indeed change the course of this contest. And Big Ben (7-2 SU and vs. the spread in the playoffs) has emerged as one of the better clutch QBs in the game. But we suspect Pittsburgh is going to need some unorthodox scores to extend the margin beyond the oddsmakers’ not-so-insignificant impost. If the Steelers don’t get those special plays from their defense or on kick return units, we believe they’re going to be in for a real fight.One they might even lose.

TGS SCORE FORECAST: ARIZONA 27 - Pittsburgh 24

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

GAME OVERVIEW - Coming into the season the Steelers had one of the toughest schedules based on
the record of their 2007 foes (.598). The last team to play twelve .500+ teams went 4-12 & only 2 of 16
teams that played eleven .500+ teams had winning records. They are now playing in an NFL record 7th
franchise SB & their 2nd in 5 years. Since moving to Arizona from St Louis in 1988 the Cardinals had just
one other winning season fi nishing 9-7 in 1998. ARZ came into 2008 widely viewed as the 2nd best team
in the NFC West & quite a few eyebrows were raised when it was announced that Warner won the #1 QB
job over Matt Leinart. The Cardinals took advantage of a very weak division & capitalized on the slew of
injuries to SEA. After not hosting an NFL playoff game since 1975 the Cardinals are off to their fi rst SB
in franchise history. ARZ has not won an NFL Championship since 1947 when the Chicago Cardinals
beat the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cardinals have the worst regular season record for a Super Bowl team
since the 1980 LA Rams lost to the Steelers 31-19 in SB XIV. The big media story will be the fact that
Ken Whisenhunt was the OC for the Steelers victory in Super Bowl XL. Whisenhunt & OL Coach Russ
Grimm both interviewed for the HC spot when Bill Cowher stepped down. Grimm was offered the job but
the Rooney family retracted it & they opted for Mike Tomlin who had 1 year of experience as a DC for
the Vikings. Whisenhunt has 8 former Steelers assistants on his staff & noted that "this is something of a
dream scenario for me & many of the coaches on our staff." Kurt Warner will earn serious consideration
for the Hall of Fame with a win here while Roethlisberger will cement his status as one of the top 3 QB's
in the NFL (Tom Brady & Peyton Manning just ahead of him) despite having one more ring than Manning.
Arizona has 5 Pro Bowlers vs Pittsburgh's 3. SB dogs are 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS.

PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE - The Steelers program is very consistent with an established identity & a
way of doing things which allows them to retain core players for a long time. Unlike Super Bowl XL the
Steelers have a very clear cut edge here thanks to their program. PIT has 26 players on this team who
were on the roster for Super Bowl XL with 3 currently on the IR. An astounding 10 of 11 starters on
defense played in the game with 5 starters on offense that were starters in SB XL. QB Roethlisberger,
RB Parker, WR Ward, TE Miller were all starters for SB XL with Ward being named the MVP. ARZ does
have a proven winner in Kurt Warner who is 1-1 SU & ATS in the Super Bowl. Pro Bowler Sean Morey
was with the Steelers for SB XL & is a vital member of the Cardinals special teams unit. Edgerrin James
has 8 games (3-5 SU & ATS) experience with the Colts prior to 2008 in the playoffs including Indy's 21-18
loss in the Conf Semi-fi nals in 2005 to PIT. While ARZ does have 12 coaches with playoff experience
the edge is very clear when it comes down to who is on the fi eld. LARGE EDGE: STEELERS

RECORD VS THE SPREAD - There is an adage in the NFL that it's not who you play it's when you play
them & the Cardinals are a great example. At home the Cardinals went 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS winning by a
30-23 margin. On the road they struggled with 6 trips to the East Coast & went 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS losing
by an avg score of 29-24. They have tallied 4 straight covers since a pair of embarrassing losses to MIN &
NE. ARZ has taken advantage of a very weak NFC West (5-1 ATS) & has beaten an ATL team with a young
QB, a CAR team that came in overconfi dent & a PHI team that couldn't overcome an 18 pt defi cit in the
1H. PIT took the challenge of a very tough schedule head on & survived going 7-3 SU (4-6 ATS) to start
the season. They fi nished 7-1 SU & ATS with a 25-14 avg score the rest of the season. PIT went 6-2 SU &
5-3 ATS on the road TY with a 20-14 avg score. PIT's 2 losses were to PHI & TEN both solid playoff teams.
PIT has won 9 games by 7 or more points while only 2 of ARZ 7 losses were by 7 or less. ARZ went 2-6
SU & 2-5-1 ATS vs foes with a winning record losing by a 36-24 avg score prior to their 3-0 ATS run with a
32-21 winning margin. PIT went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS vs foes with a winning record before Thanksgiving with
an 18-15 avg defi cit. PIT then went 5-1 SU & ATS the rest of the way with a 23-14 avg score. Both teams
are peaking at the right time & PIT's edge is mitigated some by the fact that teams are 1-6 ATS if they won
a Super Bowl in the L3Y due to overconfi dence & an infl ated line. SLIGHT EDGE: STEELERS

TURF/SITE - This will be the 4th time Raymond James Stadium hosts a Super Bowl with the last one
being SB XXXV in 2001. RJ Stadium seats 70,500 & was voted 2nd best playing surface for 2008 by
players. Both teams will be allotted 17.5% of the tickets. One third goes to season ticket holders in a
lottery system, one third to suite owners & the rest to the players, coaches & staff. The team hosting
the event gets 5% of the tickets, 30% is shared by the other 30 NFL teams with the league retaining
30% for sponsors & special promotions. The avg ticket price for SB XLII was $4,332. The NFL spares
no expense to ensure a quality playing surface & they import a grass fi eld called Princess 77 for the
game costing over $500,000 to install. Both teams are grass teams but Steeler fans travel like college
fans & there will be quite a few Terrible Towels in the stands. SLIGHT EDGE: STEELERS

STEELERS #22 OFFENSE VS CARDINALS #19 DEFENSE - Part of the Steelers legacy is that the
offense has been centered around the power run game & the passing game is 2nd. Under Mike Tomlin
& OC Bruce Arians that doesn't apply as the Steelers are relying more on Roethlisberger's arm & his
tenacity in keeping plays alive with his mobility & size. PIT is using more 3 WR sets letting RB Parker and
Moore take advantage of the spread out defense. Despite missing 5 games due to knee & shoulder injuries
Parker has led the Steelers in rushing for 4 straight years. He has 418 yds (3.9) in 6 post season games.
#2 RB Mewelde Moore is a very capable 3rd Dn RB that can start for short periods & had 908 yds from
scrimmage (5.0) during the reg ssn. He is also a key player on special teams. Both Parker & Moore are
speed/slash RB's & the team brought in Gary Russell to be the short yardage RB. Both Moore & Russell
have seen their time cut in the playoffs as Parker is fi nally healthy. Hines Ward led the team with 81 rec's
(12.9) & he also leads the franchise with 78 post season catches. He is one of the most respected blocking
WR's in the NFL & while he sprained his right knee vs BAL he is expected to play here. PIT does have
depth here as Santonio Holmes is the big play threat with 59 rec (15.5) with TE Heath Miller being one of
the more underrated TE's in the NFL. Miller is adept at blocking & is a viable rec weapon. Nate Washington
(46 rec, 14.8) is the #4 WR. While Limas Sweed made a pair of big plays vs BAL he is still adjusting to
the pro game & Arians is in no hurry to put him on the fi eld. Matt Spaeth is the power blocking TE & has
helped shore up the OL. In the fi rst 7 games Roethlisberger was sacked once every 8 pass att's but the
line adjusted to the loss of LG Simmons & LT Smith and it was cut down to once every 13 att's. Roethlisberger
isn't a "fantasy QB" but over the L8 games he has avg'd 218 ypg (56%) with a 9-4 ratio. ARZ DC
Pendergast runs a scheme driven hybrid 3-4/4-3 that adjusts to its foe week by week to exploit opposing
teams weaknesses. Much like IND the Cardinals defense is at its best when operating ahead which allows
its undersized DL (6'3" 285) to go after the passer & protect itself vs the run. Darnell Dockett is the best
player on the DL & is inside in a 4-3 but shifts to DE in a 3-4. ARZ may fi nd itself without DE Travis LaBoy
(torn bicep) which could force the team into more 3-4's. In its L4 games ARZ has allowed 80 ypg (3.8) vs
112 (4.0) the rest of the year. Pendergast likes to bring pressure from all angles & DE/OLB Berry leads
the team with 7 sacks incl playoffs. OLB Karlos Dansby is very active & makes things happen but he can
disappear if he doesn't get off to a fast start. ARZ gets to the QB once every 17 pass att's which means
teams have had time to air it out. ARZ has given up 225 ypg passing (62%) with a 42-21 ratio including
playoffs which incl a 1-5 ratio vs CAR. ARZ has a talented secondary with Rodgers-Cromartie being the
#1 CB which allowed Antrel Rolle to shift to FS full-time. SS Adrian Wilson is a top 5 safety in the NFL &
one of the best playmakers on the team. ARZ is very TO dependant going 1-7 SU/1-6-1 ATS with -TO's
(-19 TO's) but 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS with + TO's (+20 TO's). ARZ will have to be careful about putting too
much pressure on Roethlisberger as he's an excellent "playground" QB & his mobility is an asset. Neither
team has a clear edge here as both run high risk/high reward schemes & while a slow start wouldn't be
a surprise there should be some big plays. EDGE: NONE

CARDINALS #4 OFFENSE VS STEELERS #1 DEFENSE - The key to Super Bowl XLIII will be if
the Steelers can overcome the Cardinals impressive array of weapons with their physical nature.
Combined with the best set of WR's in the NFL (3 WR's w/1,000 yds) & an OL that has played all 19
games together, Warner has resurrected himself in 2008. He is just the 2nd QB to lead 2 separate
teams to a Super Bowl (Craig Morton DAL SB V & DEN SB XII) fi nishing with the 3rd best QBR
in the NFL based on being 3rd in att's and 2nd in comp, comp % & passing yards. His experience
has really shined in 2008 as he's been sacked 29 times or once every 24 pass att's!!! He has been
rattled by defenses that consistently bring pressure & knock his WR's off their routes (i.e. NYJ, NYG,
PHI Gm 1, MIN & NE). His prime target in the passing game is Larry Fitzgerald who has seized
the mantle of best WR in the NFL. Fitzgerald broke Jerry Rice's record for rec yds in a single post
season (419) & was 2nd in the NFL with 1,431 yds (14.9) & tied for 1st with 12 TD's. Boldin has
missed 5 games with a strained left hamstring but is a better speed threat than Fitzgerald. Breaston
has developed into a standout slot WR & will likely be the #2 if Boldin is traded in the offseason. ARZ
is very thin at TE due to injuries as they IR'd Stephen Spach before the PHI game & brought back
Jerame Tuman who is a stout blocker but limited as a receiver. ARZ's run game only avg'd 74 ypg
(3.5) with 72 rushing FD's in the regular season. RB James was benched after it was clear he lost a
gear & the team tried to accelerate the development of Tim Hightower who OC Haley considers is
a young Marion Barber. Minus the STL road game he only gained 209 yds (2.4) but was effective as
a short yardage/goal line RB. In James' L4 games he has avg'd 76 ypg (4.6) vs 35 ypg (3.5). While
ARZ has reinforced balance in its offense the L4 games have been vs the #18, #25, #20 & #6 rush
def's & they fi gure to have a much tougher time vs PIT's #2 rush def allowing 3.3 ypc. PIT fi nished
1st in total defense, net passing, red-zone, def ppg, rush ypg, rush ypc & FD's allowed. While the
LB's get most of the glory the DL is the key as they clear the OL & force double teams which allow
the LB's to fl ow to the ball. PIT has only allowed eight 100 yd rushers over the L6Y & fi nished 2nd in
the NFL with 51 reg season sacks. The LB unit combined for 38.5 reg season sacks which is behind
only the 2006 Chargers for most by a LB unit in 1 year. James Harrison became the 1st NFL UFA
to win Defensive MVP with 16 sacks, 7 FF & fi nished 2nd with 101 reg ssn tackles not counting his
special teams play. LaMarr Woodley became the 1st player to have B2B multi-sack playoff games
& Larry Foote & James Farrior are the other starters. Ryan Clark is the glue that holds the PIT
secondary together & he frees up Polamalu to cover huge chunks of the fi eld. Ike Taylor & Deshea
Townsend are the starting CB's for a secondary that has allowed 184 ypg (56%) with a 15-24 ratio
& stout 5.5 ypa TY. LY's SB showed that high powered offenses can be brought down by a brutal
front 7. Unlike LY however, ARZ will be very familiar with PIT's zone blitz schemes & prepared for
it. PIT can be hit for big plays & ARZ showed they aren't afraid to mix up their gamebook late in the
year vs PHI. Both teams will make & give up big plays & the slight edge goes with ARZ due to the
depth in the passing game. SLIGHT EDGE: CARDINALS

SPECIAL TEAMS - ARZ has our #31 special teams unit for 2008 & has struggled on coverage & returns.
PIT has our #16 special teams unit & while they have issues on their return units they greatly improved
their coverage units over LY's. ARZ avg'd just 7.2 on PR's (27th) & 21.7 on KR's (25th) in the regular
season & that has carried over into the playoffs where they have just avg'd 4.0 on PR's. Sean Morey
earned a spot in the Pro Bowl for his coverage skills but ARZ fi nished 30th on PR (13.1) & KR (25.0)
coverage TY. PIT only avg'd 6.0 on PR's (31st) & 20.3 on KR's (29th) for 2008 but they were outstanding
in coverage with just 6.2 on PR's (4th) & 1st in KR with 19.1 allowed. Both teams have had problems
with their punters as PIT's Berger was cut due to a hamstring injury & he fi nished with a 36.4 net avg
with 19 of 66 punts inside the 20. Ben Graham only had 20 punts after being picked up mid-season &
fi nished with just a 32 net avg & 7 punts inside the 20 (reg ssn). PIT K Reed fi nished as our #15 K TY
hitting 85.7% TY of FG's. ARZ K Rackers hit 89.3% of his FG's & is our #14 K for 2008. The Steelers
get a slight edge here due to their vastly improved coverage units. SLIGHT EDGE: STEELERS

COACHING - Mike Tomlin is a member of the Tony Dungy coaching tree & has indirectly been spliced
into the Bill Cowher tree. Tomlin was very wise when he retained future Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau
as his DC & kept the team in a 3-4 system. Bruce Arians is the OC & the Steelers are NOT a power
running team anymore. They are comfortable spreading the fi eld out & letting RB Parker exploit the
edges. Ken Whisenhunt is a pure offshoot of Cowher's tree & the Bidwell family hired him to install
the Steelers culture into the team. Whisenhunt has 8 assistants including vaunted OL Coach Russ
Grimm that were with Steelers. Whisenhunt was the OC for the Steelers for 3 years & is very familiar
with LeBeau's zone blitz schemes & will have Warner well prepared for it. OC Todd Haley cut his teeth
as a WR's coach & has done an impressive job of developing the talent here. DC Clancy Pendergast
worked under Dennis Green & runs a schematic system that adjusts to its foe week to week. Both
teams have top-notch staffs but Arizona gets the nod due to so many having fi eld level knowledge of
Steeler players. SLIGHT EDGE: CARDINALS

PAST HISTORY MATCHUP & INTANGIBLES - This will be the 2nd meeting between Tomlin &
Whisenhunt as the Cardinals beat the Steelers 21-14 as a 6 pt HD LY. ARZ was without WR Boldin
due to injury & Leinart (shoulder) was hurt the previous week vs BAL forcing Whisenhunt to split time
with Warner to spark the offense. PIT hit a 43 yd TD to go up 7-0 but in the 3Q with Warner running a
no huddle offense ARZ tied it with a 9/70 drive. ARZ fumbled on their 4 but Roethlisberger threw an
int into the EZ on 3rd Dn. ARZ returned a punt 73 yds for a TD & on their next drive went 13/82 with a
2 yd TD by RB James. PIT went 9/92 with a 7 yd TD to WR Holmes to pull within 7 but Roethlisberger
was int'd on PIT's fi nal drive. ARZ had a 301-282 yd edge as Warner had 132 yds (67%) with a 1-0
ratio in limited duty. Roethlisberger passed for 244 yds (53%) with a 2-2 ratio but was sacked 4 times.
Whisenhunt has already announced that this is his "dream scenario" for a Super Bowl game which will
give PIT bulletin board material. PIT knows exactly what is coming in terms of the media onslaught &
will have their training schedule adjusted to compensate. ARZ is a very young team & while Warner
has been here twice the Cardinals could be overwhelmed by the media here. EDGE: NONE

CONCLUSION - The Super Bowl is a great handicapping lesson. It is an isolated game & the bye week
affords the media to dissect every aspect of the contest. The best value is during the regular season
when Vegas posts numbers on 45 or more CFB games, with NFL sides & totals. Do not fall into the
trap of putting your biggest play or anything close to it on the most isolated game in any sport. Our
Super Bowl System was revised this year and it is 22-0 on game with OVER 48.5 pts (this year's
SB has 49 pts) & this revised system is 32-1-2 97% on games with 21.5 pts or higher!! Don't
miss out on this year's winner! Call 1-900-776-7871 for just $30 or get it using your Northcoast
Debit Card for only $20! This is a classic matchup of offense vs defense. The question is can PIT's
#1 defense slow ARZ's #4 offense. The Steeler's faced only ONE true passing team this season &
that was the #3 offense of HOU with 55 points being scored. ARZ's offense has been record setting
becoming the FIRST team to score 30+ points in 3 straight games in a single postseason. ARZ has
gone 12-3-1 "OVER" this total with the 3 games totaling 46, 44 & 47 points. PIT will also move the ball
as they've topped 30+ pts in the L/3 games vs non-top10 defenses. It's not a surprise that PP calls for
ARZ to only have 41 yds rushing but the close passing yardage is interesting. PIT's rushing yards are
a bit low due to Parker's injuries in 2008 & they should easily surpass that. PP only projects 638 yds
of offense here but a combined 51 pts. Both teams are very capable of explosive plays & while we are
undecided on the side as of this writing the total is a quality play with the Over here.

2* STEELERS/CARDINALS: OVER

KEVIN ONEIL THE MAX

Steelers vs. Cardinals
Line: Steelers –7, 46½

When you average up seven key stat rankings for the Cardinals defense, the average is 18th in the NFL. The average for the Steeler D is better than 2nd. As good as the Eagles, Ravens, and Titans defenses were this year, it is Pittsburgh #1 in important categories like points allowed, yards per rush, yards per pass, yards per play, and a number of scoring stats (fewest TD’s, for instance.) The Cardinals offensive numbers are better than Pittsburgh’s, but remember that the Steelers played a lot of weather games, and played a far superior slate of defenses. The Steelers allowed the fewest points in the league. The next best 7 defensive scoring teams were the Titans, Ravens, Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Colts, and Patriots. The Steelers played every one of those teams, playing the Ravens 3 times. All told, those 7 stout defensive teams made up half of the Steelers schedule, giving them 9 of their 18 games (including playoffs) against these top D’s. From 2004 through 2006, current Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt was the Steelers offensive coordinator, and Dick Lebeau was the Steelers defensive coordinator, a job that he continues to excel in to this day. In those roles, the two men selfscouted each other pretty frequently. Whisenhunt and his offensive staff spent a lot of time analyzing the Steelers defense saying “here’s the way I’d attack us…” with Lebeau and his defensive coaches mock game planning to defend the Steelers offense and then sharing the results with the offensive coaches. The many hours these men and their staffs spent together probing the weaknesses of their respective units leaves them very familiar with one another’s philosophies and tactics. The element of surprise is a key Super Bowl weapon. With two weeks to prepare for this game, don’t be surprised if there both the Cardinals offense and the Steelers defense have some wrinkles up their sleeves that don’t appear on film.The familiarity doesn’t exist only when the Cardinals have the ball. Whisenhunt’s assistant head coach is Russ Grimm, the Steelers’ offensive line coach during those years. Grimm and Whisenhunt coached many of the current Steelers offensive personnel. And they doubtlessly have some well-formed opinions on where on the offensive line they want to attack and how to contain Pittsburgh’s offensive weapons. We’ll be seeing quite a chess match in Tampa on Super Bowl Sunday. To us, that’s a lot more interesting than the personal enmity between Ben Roethlisberger and Whisenhunt.The Cardinals have lost four games by 21 or more. Can we forgive the Cards for this? Early in the season they put on a festival of turnovers in the Meadowlands and got mauled by the Jets. A 7-1 turnover disadvantage will do that to you. Then in weeks 12, 14, and 15 they lost by 28, 21, and 40. A Thanksgiving night loss to the Eagles could be excused by a horrid travel scenario. The consecutive blowout losses in December came after they had already clinched their division. While it doesn’t exactly show great character, if you can excuse away the four losses, than the Cards resume is tons stronger. And really, their resume from the playoffs, especially the past two weeks, is outstanding. They’re doing a lot of very good things.Do the Cardinals really attack Roethlisberger or do they just try to keep him in the pocket. The only offensive TD the Steelers produced last week came on a broken play.When the QB breaks containment is when he is most dangerous. That’s something to watch. You know that the Steelers allowed over 290 yards only once, giving up 323 yards in their loss to the Titans right before Christmas. Amazingly, the Steelers allowed 243 yards or less in 11 of their 18 games. Believe it or not, that defensive brilliance keys our Max play on the over.Whisenhunt is well aware of the Pittsburgh’s defensive prowess. He’s a very smart guy, and the last thing he’s going to do is play conservatively and try to get lucky late.He knows that the Steelers defense becomes a holy terror when they have the lead. Whisenhunt is a coach who likes to get the ball down the field, who likes to optimize Larry Fitzgerald, who understands that the Cardinals will need to play their game to win. Look for Arizona to throw caution to the wind and come out winging the ball. As good as the Steelers defense is, nobody runs the kind of intricate deep patterns that the Cardinals can with their receivers.Fitzgerald is dominating and with two weeks for his hamstring to heal further, Boldin may put his diva act to rest and make himself some money by having a big game. With all due respect to Troy Polamalu, don’t be surprised if the Cardinals have some success with their deep and crossing patterns, as their pass attack is clicking right now.Note that our expectation of a wide-open game plan from the Cardinals from the get-go runs counter to one of our usual Super Bowl staples, the suggestion that the first quarter and first half will be low scoring. So we’re not necessarily on board with our usual first quarter under,first half under, and more points to be scored in the second half/ OT than in the first half. Both teams have opportunistic defenses that can create short fields and points. In their two playoff games, the Steelers have a 6-1 turnover edge. The Cards have enjoyed an 11-3 turnover advantage in their three playoff encounters.The Steelers are the better team. Their defense is prodigious, and their offense is better than statistics suggest due to their tough schedule. But I’m hesitant to lay a TD, as the Cards are hot, and hot teams are dangerous in the NFL playoffs these days. But I do expect the Cardinals to attack aggressively from the get go, so over the total is our call.

THE SPORTS MEMO

For much of the regular season and heading into the playoffs, the Arizona Cardinals were thought by many to be a gimmick – the Texas Tech of the NFL. The game plan was to outscore the opposition by way of the pass and for most of the season, they held true to form. However, en route to the Super Bowl we discovered that while not outstanding, the defense was capable of making plays. Additionally, the ground game proved to be creative enough to move the chains. Make no mistake; success throwing the football is the only way Arizona will emerge victorious but this is a different team than what we saw earlier this season.In looking at Kurt Warner’s numbers, with the exception of a meaningless late season game at New England, he fared well against some of the better pass defenses in the league. In eight games against teams than rank in the upper-half of the NFL in terms of passing yardage defense, Warner averaged 272 ypg with a strong 16-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio. The key for Warner has always been protection and Arizona did a solid job during the campaign allowing 26 sacks and just three in the playoffs. Over the last four years, when Warner was sacked four or more times in a game, his teams were 0-7. Four or more sacks may seem extreme, but the Steelers were No. 2 in the NFL with 51 during the regular season. They recorded four against San Diego and three versus the Ravens in the playoffs.Despite the ruffling of feathers, the long-term result of keeping Edgerrin James on the sideline for a large portion of the regular season certainly paid dividends. When fresh, James’ top four games in terms of carries resulted in Arizona going 4-0 SU and ATS. In three playoff games, he saw the ball no fewer than 16 times per game. This season, when James failed to get at least 10 carries, the Cardinals were 4-6 SU.Defensively, Arizona didn’t get much credit during the regular season and rightfully so as they were 28th in scoring defense. That included six games against San Francisco, Seattle and St. Louis, who ranked 25th, 31st and 22nd respectively in points scored. On the flip side you can make a small case that Arizona’s lack of defensive success was a result of being in control of the NFC West for virtually the entire season. We’ve seen talent on the defensive side for Arizona when it matters with 77.3 ypg allowed on the ground and eight interceptions in three postseason games. In addition, you can rest assure that the Cardinals are aware that the Steelers’ offensive line allowed 54 sacks this season.Still, while Arizona’s defense may be slightly underrated, the defensive gap between both teams is still massive. Pittsburgh played one of the toughest schedules in the league and had no trouble holding its opponents to crumbs. In looking at some of Pittsburgh’s “worst” defensive outings, the stop unit had very little to do with the outcome. When they allowed 31 points at Tennessee, the Titans had an interception return for a touchdown and forced four turnovers. Against Indianapolis, Ben Roethlisberger threw three interceptions, two of which left the Colts with a short field on their way to touchdowns. In the Giants’ 21-14 win, it wasn’t until three minutes to go in the game that New York reached the end zone. Simply put, Pittsburgh’s defense is as good as the Baltimore unit that won Super Bowl XXXV.Meanwhile, another issue for Arizona is Pittsburgh’s balanced offense. With a healthy offensive line down the stretch, we saw quarterback Ben Roethlisberger perform at a higher level. When protected, he has weapons at his disposal with five players recording 40 or more catches. The running game has never been much in the way of explosive, but remains strong and physical enough to move the chains. The season long numbers show the Steelers averaged the fewest amount of offensive yards (311.9) out of this year’s playoff field. They were also just as weak as Arizona in terms of running the ball (3.7 ypc). However, what Pittsburgh lacks in offensive stats, it makes up for in field position and special teams play. The gap in special teams play is especially worthy of note as Pittsburgh ranks No. 1 in kickoff defense (19.1) and fourth in punt defense (6.2). Arizona was one of the league’s worst at 29th and 31st, respectively. Meanwhile, our feeling is that Pittsburgh will have the type of offensive output we saw throughout the season. They’ll move the ball and try to wear down Arizona with long sustained drives. They’ll also be on the lookout for situations in which to utilize their famed down field passing game with Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington.From a coaching perspective, there is plenty of familiarity for Arizona after head coach Ken Whisenhunt served as the Steelers’ offensive coordinator during their Super Bowl run. He and his staff’s knowledge of Pittsburgh’s personnel shouldn’t go unnoticed. In the 2007 matchup between these two teams, Whisenhunt’s Cardinals pressured Roethlisberger into throwing two interceptions while sacking him four times en route to a 21-14 victory.It’s easy to go back and say last’s year 12-point spread was over-inflated but even had the Patriots gone on to win, a majority of betting community would have told you it was too much. This year, the consensus at Sportsmemo is that the line is fair. Pittsburgh may be a “public team” but unlike Arizona, there aren’t many flaws with this team, especially on the defensive side. Is Arizona capable of pulling the upset? Absolutely. Again, turn back the clock to last year if you want a team that endured difficulties,found its groove, was undervalued and came up big. In the upper right-hand corner are recommendations on the side and total from all of the Sportsmemo Handicappers. Good luck and enjoy the game!

Sports Insights

Superbowl XLIII

Contrarian Sports Investing

SportsInsights.com (“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights' quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.”

The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year's Superbowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58%

Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement

SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator.

For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7.

This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

Intangibles and Other Contrarian Angles

In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets.

For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events.

Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”

During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points.

Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

Quick Analysis of Recent Superbowl Scores

SportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.

We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:

• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD.

Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

Overview

SportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com's philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs' exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events, please visit www.SportsInsights.com.

Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace” point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We'll see in a few days.

Games to Watch - Playoff Editions (1-2 = 33.3%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

Nelly's Greensheet

SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST: Any Super Bowl favorite of 6 or more
PLAY AGAINST: Pittsburgh
(PLAY ON: Arizona)
6-2-2, 75% since 1996
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
NFL: All trends are Against the Spread unless noted (S/U):
LAST MEETING: @Arizona 21-14, 9/30/07(+5½,42½)
Arizona is 16-11-1 L28 as underdogs – Arizona is 6-2 L8 as dogs of 6+
Pittsburgh is 5-1 L6 as favorites – Pittsburgh is 18-7 L25 as favs of 6+
Arizona is 4-1 L5 playoff games – Pittsburgh is 7-0 L7 playoffs games

SUPER BOWL XLIII TOTAL

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) Arizona Cardinals (46½)

This total has slipped from the initial number of 47, a number that three of the past four Super Bowls have closed at. The Super Bowl has a justified reputation as an ‘over’ game and the ‘over’ cashed in eleven of 16 years up until Super Bowl XXXIX which started a run of four consecutive ‘under’ wins heading into this year’s game. Last year the game played well ‘under’ the total of 54½ but this match-up provides a tough challenge for totals players as these teams have contrasting styles. Barring a significant drop this will be the highest total of any Pittsburgh game all season (at Philadelphia was 44½ early in the year) and in the regular season totals were even at 8-8 for Pittsburgh before two ‘over’ wins in the playoffs. Arizona has been the ultimate ‘over’ team this season with eleven of 16 regular season games going ‘over’ and two of three playoff games also hitting the ‘over’. The Carolina game actually stayed ‘under’ but was well on pace to go ‘over’ as well. These teams did not play this season but met in 2007, with the ‘under’ hitting as 35 combined points were scored in Glendale with a total set at 42½ in an Arizona win. The field in Tampa is considered a very fast track but the ‘under’ was 5-3 in games at Raymond James this season and there is a slight lean to the ‘under’ for all Buccaneer home games in the past six years. Arizona did play in this stadium last season so there could be some familiarity edge in this setting as the Steelers have not played there since 2002. In raw numbers these teams have combined to score 50 points per game and allow just over 40 points per game on average but the numbers for Arizona are a bit misleading as there were a few lopsided results for the Cardinals this season. In seven games against playoff teams in the regular season Pittsburgh averaged only 14 points per game and if you take out a few of the ugly late season games where Arizona had questionable motivation the defensive numbers are much better. Both run defenses have posted strong results in the playoffs which could force both teams to the air even more than expected but the fast field could actually help two solid secondary units as much as the passing games. Arizona will not be conservative in this match-up and Coach Whisenhunt will have some creative ideas on how to attack the Pittsburgh defense but scoring will still be at a premium in this match-up and if the Steelers effectively create a pass rush they could cancel out some scoring opportunities. Arizona’s defense should be able to limit Pittsburgh’s rushing attack and the Cardinals have been making a lot of big plays on defense so far this postseason. This is a tough call but we’ll lean towards a lower scoring affair with both defenses playing well.

STEELERS 24-21 RATING 2* UNDER (46½)

SUPER BOWL XLIII SIDE

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) Arizona Cardinals (46½)

In the last ten years only one other team has made it to the Super Bowl without beating a top three seed in the playoffs (Seattle 2005) and it could be argued that the Steelers had perhaps the easiest Super Bowl path of any team since the current playoff format began. Pittsburgh hosted an 8-8 San Diego team missing its best offensive player and then hosted a banged-up Baltimore team with a rookie QB in a third consecutive road game. This does not diminish the accomplishment but it begs the question if the Steelers may be overvalued. Last week’s game was truly a battle as two division rivals faced off in an incredibly physical game and there could be a toll on the Steelers even with the two-week layoff. The Cardinals have not proved they can handle that type of punishment but Arizona remains a perplexing and unexplainable story after a great unexpected playoff run. Statistically the edges are dramatically with the Steelers as the defense allowed nearly 100 yards less per game than Arizona but the Cardinals offense has posted impressive numbers, averaging 365 yards per game. Neither team saw a huge drop-off in yardage numbers playing on the road this season and both teams finished the year 8-2 S/U at home, contributing to the success. A popular statistic being thrown out is that Arizona scored only one more point than allowed this season but in the final four losses when the division title was well in hand the Cardinals were out-scored by 97 points skewing much of the season numbers. Both Pittsburgh and Arizona were out-scored by a significant margin in regular seas on games against teams that eventually made the playoffs which makes one wonder if we really are producing the best two teams in this playoff format. Both teams went 2-2 against the opposing conference this season. Pittsburgh’s defense is very good but if you take away four wins against Cincinnati and Cleveland the numbers are not nearly as strong as suggested as in the playoffs and against playoff teams in the regular season the Steelers allowed close to 19 points per game. Good numbers, but not anywhere near to some of the dominant defenses that this year’s team is being compared with. In week 17 the Browns, whose players and staff had clearly called it quits on the season, gained just 134 yards against Pittsburgh and in a small sample of just 16 games one game like that has a huge impact on the overall numbers. Likewise a few bad Arizona losses swelled the defensive totals but in meaningful games and in the playoffs the Arizona defense has been pretty respectable. An argument can be made for both quarterbacks as both have won Super Bowls and shown the ability to make winning plays for their teams. Arizona has a clear edge with an extremely talented receiving corps while Pittsburgh has had a much more successful running game but that strength is mainly due to Pittsburgh’s dedication to running the ball, rushing 120 more attempts than Arizona on the season, yet averaging only about 30 more yards per game. In the postseason the per-game rushing statistics for Pittsburgh and Arizona are nearly identical. Pittsburgh has had great defensive numbers in the playoffs but keep in mind Tomlinson did not play and McClain had just one carry while Arizona shut down the #2 and #3 rushing teams in the NFL. Arizona’s defense is better than many are giving credit and Warner has proven to be a clutch playoff performer with an 8-2 career record. Arizona has more playmakers on offense and Super Bowls typically come down to who can create the big plays to gain momentum and take advantage of opportunities. We have great respect for Pittsburgh’s style of play and the Steelers can grind out a win in this game but this team is possibly overrated having caught a great deal of breaks in the regular season and catching a very favorable path to get to this game. The good fortune may continue for the Steelers but Arizona is a dangerous underdog that could deliver despite the incredibly long odds just a few weeks back. We’ll ride the hot team to stay within the spread although Pittsburgh may take the title.

STEELERS 24-21 RATING 2* ARIZONA (+7)

Marc Lawrence's PlayBook

PITTSBURGH over Arizona by 10

“Free at last. Free at last. Thank God almighty, we are free at last.” The same words uttered by the late, great Martin Luther King is also the theme-dream for the Arizona Cardinals who earned a trip to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. In the process they have freed themselves from the stigma of born losers. With just ONE winning season in the previous twenty-three years, the Red Birds turned to former Super Bowl winner Kurt Warner early in the season and he helped them shed the shackles that have bound this team for three decades. Ironically, former Pittsburgh assistant head coach Ken Whisenhunt now leads his team against his former employer and the coach, Mike Tomlin, he was spurned for in this, the game for top-honors in the league. FYI: Whisenhunt beat Tomlin, 21-14, last year as a 6-point home dog in the only meeting between these two. To set the record straight, the House of Cards are the first 9-7 team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl. The Cardinals won their last division title in 1975. They’ve won two league championships – in 1925 and 1947. We’re talking a mighty long time between winning hands here, folks. But that’s what happens when a team catches fire. Warner’s main target, WR Larry Fitzgerald, is arguably the best receiver in the game today. His companion, Anquan Boldin, makes them the best wide receiver tandem in the league. Together with Warner, they form as serious an offensive threat as any team in the loop.Like the New York Giants last year, Big Red enters the Super Bowl off an upset win, generally a good omen for teams competing in the biggest game of all as they are 11-6-1 ATS in this role, including 5-0 ATS the last five and 5-1-1 ATS if they are off back-to-back upset underdog victories. Toss in Whisenhunt’s 13-7 ATS mark in games off a win, including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS when facing a greater than .666 opponent, and suddenly there is a lot to like about these upstart Birds. The bad news, however – and there is always bad news – is that you have to go back to 1977 to find the last time the Cardinals managed to win 5 games in a row as they are 0-6 SU and ATS in games off 4 straight wins. Meanwhile, Tomlin’s Steelers are eerily similar to Pittsburgh teams of the past, getting the job done the old fashioned way… with defense. The Steelers’ top ranked stop-unit is 92 YPG superior to the Cardinals and is the main reason they are 14-4 ‘In The Stats’ this season (Arizona is 12-7 ITS). And speaking of Tomlin, he’s 4-0 SU and ATS against NFC competition that is off back-to-back wins. Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger is a sterling 7-2 SU and ATS in his career during the post-season, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge. Big Ben is also 39-3 SU and 29-13 ATS in his NFL career as a favorite of 4 or more points, including 21-0 SU and 16-5 ATS if the opponent owns a win percentage of .333 or more. Going back to their Super Bowl XL win over Seattle in the 2005 season, Pittsburgh has reeled off 7 consecutive covers in post-season play (6-1 SU), scoring 21 or more points in each game. Not a good number if you’re a desert-lover considering the Cardinals’ 18-54 ATS record as a dog in games in which they allow 21 or more points this decade. Neither is the fact that AFC favorites of 6 or more points are 43-6 SU and 33-15-1 ATS versus greater than .400 NFC opposition this decade, including 22-0 SU and 18-3-1 ATS when coming off a game against a division rival. And just like that those impressive stats we spewed about Arizona have lost their zest. In closing, some SUPER BOWL FACTS to consider: the last thirteen Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 9-4 SU and 4-7-2 ATS; the last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-12-1 ATS; teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU and 21-2-1 ATS; teams who score 20 or less points are 1-24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS; and finally, the last thirteen years the higher seeded team is 1-10-2 ATS! A lot of numbers to ponder, for sure. The bottom line is this game pairs Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, one whose team has a rock solid defense; the other whose team is the 2nd best in the league scoring points. Like MLK, the Cardinals may have a dream, but it’s the Steelers that will wear the ring.