Game Breaker
Half with the most scoring. Pick: 2nd half -1/2 -115
This one has cashed at an extremely high rate the past 10 years and often it isn't even close. You'd think it would be a 50/50 proposition but the reality is that teams tend to feel each other out early and also pull out all the stops for 60 straight minutes making both offensive and defensive scores more likely. Lots of ways to play out as a winner. (Lay 0.3 units)
Arizona to receive the opening kickoff. Pick: YES -220
This is based on past tendencies of both teams and I don't see any reason why they'd change now. It seems steep at -220 but the reality is that it should be more than -300 given the high percentage of it cashing in. Doesn't matter who wins the toss, in the end the Steelers will defer so their D takes the field first to start the game if they win the toss and if the Cards win they'll be taking the ball. (Lay 0.2 units)
Team that scores 1st wins the game. Pick: NO +170
Playing the odds and the squares often get suckered by this one. This one cashed for us last year and is a tremendous value at +170. In fact, in recent years the 1st team to score has lost more often that not. I'll take a shot at +170. (Lay 0.2 units)
Will Roethlisberger throw at least 1 INT? Pick: YES -132
Arizona can bring pressure and they've lived off takeaways recently. Roethlisberger is definitely capable of making a mistake and even a well tipped ball gets the job done. (Lay 0.2 units)
Player to have the most receiving yards. Fitzgerald +100
He's been a monster down the stretch and even if Pittsburgh pays extra attention to him, I like his chances of making one or more long catches to help cash this prop. I'll roll the dice at even money. (Lay 0.2 units)
First score of the game will be a FG or safety. YES +150
Playing the odds and a good value play at +150. (Lay 0.2 units)
I recommend smaller recreational wagers on prop plays. For example, take the amount of an average wager or slightly more and divide it up on all 6 prop wagers (lay roughly 0.2 units each). It will make the game more interesting, minimize your risk, and give you an extra chance to earn a profit. It's very easy to get carried away with prop wagers and put multiple units at risk. Be careful not to fall into that trap and enjoy the game.
Indiancowboy
5 Unit Play.Take Arizona Cardinals +7 over Pittsburgh Steelers
I will gladly take the team that defeated my Falcons at home. Bear in mind that these two teams actually met a few years in ago in Arizona and the Cardinals handled this team fine 21-14 on September 30th, 2007. Why do I mention that game? Well, Kurt Warner picked up apart this Steelers defense fairly well and note, he only ended up playing roughly half the game in that contest and completed14 of 21 attempts, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. Well, now Kurt will get to play the entire game. Big Ben did throw for 2 touchdowns in that game but also threw 2 interceptions. Bear in mind that this Cardinals team deserves to be here for the simple fact they beat the Falcons, Eagles and the best team in the NFC Panthers on the road - and frankly, hammered them on the road. Although Boldin has been grumbling, I'm sure those issues have been ironed out for the Big Game and frankly, it ends up being a great deception as the Cards are well focused for this game. Look, the Cardinals are made of many, many ex-steeler coaches and contact. From the Cardinals head coach who knows Big Ben inside out to the assistant coach who knows their offensive line very well, the Cardinals will be more than prepared for this game. Nothing against Mike Tomlin, but Ken Whisenhunt is the better coach. The Cardinals have nothing to lose, they will come in this game ready to wheel and deal - remember Kurt has won his Super Bowl already - and Whisenhurt is awesome and getting his players up and ready for the big game. After all, look at the last 3 contests for Cardinals. They were all games in which these had to fight adversity, and either come back or take on the underdog role. In short, the Cardinals could very well win this game outright. At worst, I expect this team to lose by a field goal to 5 points today but bear in mind the Cardinals have the offense and defensive pressure schemes to get it done today. I'll say it again, this game will come down to coaching and Whisenhunt is by far the better coach and I think that will end up being the difference today. Yes, the Steelers have the better defense, but if there is anyone that can pick apart that defense, it is Kurt Warner. He did it two years ago when he didn't have all the weapons he has today, he did it at Carolina and let's not forget this Cardinals offensive line has played together all season long. That's right, they have started together the entire season and this defensive line of the Cardinals is stout as well. I will take Arizona once again to win outright or just fall short in a competitive game. The Arizona Cardinals have nothing to lose. Heck, they have nothing to lose and should not even be here in some respects. This team will have a no holds bar approach and there is only one kryptonite to the Pittsburgh Steelers defense - someone who is as seasoned as it comes - Kurt Warner gets it done.
3 Unit Play. Take Over 46.5 between the Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 6:20pm). I can see the arguments for both sides as it relates to how the side will play out. But, as per the total in this game, there is every reason to think that this has a great shot at going over. After all, considering the fact that the Steelers will take a page from the Eagles 2nd half book against the Cardinals, considering the Cardinals and their potent offense of their own spreading the field with Fitzgerald and Boldin, the over being 7-1 ATS when the Steelers are favored and the over being 38-13 for the Cardinals in their last 51 games as Underdogs, I epxect this game to go over. After all, there is plenty of blood between the coaching staffs of these two teams as many of the Steelers ex-coaches are now the lead at Arizona which makes for a great story line here - more importantly, it makes for an over.
1 Unit Prop Wager: Longest Field Goal of the Game Over 44.5 (-110): Can you imagine a drive stalling at the 30-35 yard line for either team? I sure can. I believe both these offenses will have success and consequently will drive the ball successfully down field. Of course, this does not mean they will get to the endzone each time as I believe the defenses will tighten up as the opposing offenses approach the endzone. I look for both teams to allow the other to get across midfield, but then tighten up and consequently results in several long field goal attempts. There is no reason why there should not be a successfull field goal made over 44.5 and who knows, maybe that field goal could very well be the game winner.
1 Unit Prop Wager: Field Goals Made: Over 3.5 (-110). If you read the analysis is above, you will understand the take I have on this game. Once again, I believe both teams will have success moving the ball on the opposing team and who is to say that one team alone might not chuck up four field goals? Look for both offensive coordinators to have success but then drives to stall as they opposing team gets further down field. I expect around 5 field goals, so this is a take considering it is just at 3.5. Heck, the first half alone could yield 3 field goals and the second half will yield at least one in my opinion.
1 Unit Prop Wager: Cardinals will Convert more than 4.5 - 3rd down Conversions (-110). The Arizona Cardinals would not have made it to the playoffs, would not have won their division, would not have beat the Falcons at home, would not have crushed the Panthers on the road and would not have beat the Eagles at home if they did not time and time again convert third downs. They are not going to Tampa like the Seattle Seahawks to get embarrassed by this team. The Cardinals will be fired up, ready to roll and there is no better kryptonite to the Steelers defense, than Kurt Warner. I look for the Cardinals to convert several third downs in one drive alone and to have a no holds bar approach and they could very well achieve this mark by mid 3rd quarter.
Las Vegas Sport Picks
NFL:
2* Steelers -6.5
2* Over 46
NBA:
1* Celtics -14
1* Magic/Raptors over 201
NCAA:
1* Michigan St. -13
NHL:
1* Oilers -160
Wayne Root
Chairman - Arizona
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Arizona Cardinals +7
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals over the pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLII. AiS shows an 86% probability that Arizona will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and also has a 60% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a strong money line system that has produced a record of 34-19 for 64% making 22.6 units since 1983. The average play has been a dog of +123. Play on any team versus the money line after 4 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Here is a second ML system that has gone 94-52 ATS making 31.9 units since 1998. Play on any team versus the money line with a good offense averaging 5.4 or more yards/play and after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. Here is a third ML system that has gone 51-28 making 17.2 units since 2002. Play on any team versus the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread and with a winning record in the second half of the season. Let's take a look at some of the game dependent angles as defined by the AiS. Cardinals have a 90% probability of gaining 3 to 3.5 yards per rush and 6.0 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt. Note that the Steelers are just 1-5 ATS over the past 3 seasons when they allow 6 to 6.5 passing yards per attempt in a game and 1-8 ATS when they allow 3.0 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt. Much press has been made about the Steeler defense and rightfully so, but it will be the cardinals defense that will dominate this game. Steelers have an 86% probability of scoring less than 21 points in this game. note that Arizona is 12-3 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points in a game over the past 3 seasons. Even before the current coaching regime arrived in Arizona the Cardinals have nearly always done well against top level defenses. They are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus excellent defensive teams allowing <=260 yards/game since 1992. Arizona is in a very strong role for this game noting they are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season. Based on my matchup analysis, which serves ONLY to REINFORCE the Ai Simulator grading the Steelers have no one to cover Fitzgerald in man coverage. The same unsolvable problem presents to the Steelers defense that faced the Eagles. The Eagles failed miserably in the first half and yes they did get pressure on Warner, but it did not matter. Fitzgerald is the best player on the field bar none and Warner;s experience enables him to read and feel blitzes before they happen. If the Steelers choose to double team Fitzgerald, it will once again be an easy read at the LOS. Zone blitz are set-up in close proximity to the LOS and whatever players are involved cannot then back off add help double team Fitzgerald. This simple read will enable Warner to audible to power run between the tackles just like the winning scheme against the Eagles. Let's face it Boldin will want to have his best game ever, if nothing else then to put his stellar talents on display. This WR combination reminds me of 49er Super bowl teams of the past and they will just be too much for Pittsburgh to contain for 4 quarters. I would love to discuss the Steeler side of the ball, but I also need the remaining space to give you the prop bets. In summary, Arizona will control both sides of the LOS and the Steelers will struggle to execute long scoring drives. Here are the prop bets and I would not put more than 1.5* units on any one of them. These appear on Bodog. Curt Warner needs 364 passing yards to break the All-time Super Bowl record held by Joe Montana. Take "YES" he will at +500. With that said take Curt Warner passing yards OVER 265.5. Take Curt Warner OVER a 62% completion percentage. Take Edgerrin James OVER 49.5 rushing yards. Take Fitzgerald OVER 95.5 passing yards. Take Boldin OVER 67.5 receiving yards. Also take Boldin to have more receptions than Hines Ward. Last, thank you so very much for all of your support this year and for many of you the past 15 years. It has been quite a run and look forward to even better 2009.
ATS Lock Club
5 units Mich St. -12.5
4 units Villanova -11.5
4 units Illinois -12.5
ATS Financial Package
4 units St. John's -2.5
3 units Dayton -4
EZ Winners
(10* top play)
10 * Arizona
Maddux Sports
3 units on Cleveland -4
3 units on Cincinnati +12
3 units on Iowa +12.5
KELSO
100 Units Cardinals (+6½) over Steelers
Arizona by 3-4
10 Units Steelers/Cardinals OVER 46½ Points
49 or more points
Proposition Bet #1: Will game go to overtime? Yes +700
Proposition Bet #2: Will Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) score at least one touchdown? Yes -105
Proposition Bet #3: Player to score first touchdown of game: Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) 6-1
NSA
20* Pittsburgh -6.5
10* UNDER 46.5
10* Dayton -3.5
10* Illinois -12.5
10* Duke -22.5
10* Cleveland -4
Craig Davis
75 Dime CARDINALS
(if line is +6 ½, buy the half point to +7. If you line is +7, buy the half point up to +7 1/2 )
Okay boys and girls, it’s time to let the bankroll we’ve built up over the last 28 days start to work for us. Our NFL playoff run has been pretty remarkable and it’s time to cap it off with this HUGE Super Bowl winner on the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately for me, they’re probably mad at me for NOT backing them two weeks ago vs. Philly despite the fact I backed them in the previous two games (both easy winners). Let me make one thing perfectly clear --- this is gambling and NOTHING is ever 100% certain in gambling other than the fact there will be winners and losers and the losers will pay juice. Other than that, we’re dealing with the unknown until the game scoreboard hits all zeroes. That’s why we have to manage our money wisely. Yes, this is a HUGE play for me in the NFL, no doubt. But please understand me when I tell you I’m not asking you to take all your winnings from the last month with me and put it ALL on this game. That’s silly. Use our money management (dime) system to make sure we are playing smart. We’ll play a few bonus PROP plays a little later if you want to have a little fun with the game.
Now, why do I like the Cardinals against this Steelers vaunted defense? Well, it’s quite simply really. I’ve seen them do it too many times this season against other solid defenses and I just don’t believe they can be stopped. Sure, you can slow them at times if you can get pressure on Kurt Warner… but what about the times you don’t get pressure? What happens is you actually give Warner time to look downfield and throw the football? I believe, with complete certainty, this is the best receiving trio of WRs we’ve seen assembled together on one team, EVER!! I fully realize this Steelers’ secondary has been as hard hitting and ball-hawking as any defense we’ve seen this season, but they take chances. In my opinion, they take too many chances. And as often as it can turn into an turnover, it can turn into a big play for the offense and there’s no better “big play” offense in the NFL than the Arizona Cardinals, period.
And one of the reasons I believe the passing will have success early is because the running game be able to set the early tempo. Edgerrin James might be “over the hill”, but the guy can still run and you know he’s healthy (and fresh) after having sat out much of the second half of the season. Raise your hands if you’re sick and tired of hearing the media tell us how fresh Willie Parker is? James is just as fresh and get to run behind, in my opinion, a bigger, better offensive line. Once James gets going, it will open up a plethora of options for OC Todd Haley. And speaking of Haley, is there a better offensive play-caller in the NFL right now? This guy has it figured out and just knows the right time to dial up a quick slant to beat opposing blitzes… just ask the Eagles. Philly was the third ranked defense in the league and was on a string of seven straight games of allowing 14 points or less until it visited Arizona two weekends ago. The Cardinals screwed that up royally, much the way they plan to shred the Steelers secondary in Tampa tonight.
On the other side of the ball, don’t expect the Cardinals to roll over and die because the Steelers are going to “out-physical” them in the trenches. Darnell Dockett, Bert Berry and the front four in Arizona have been anything but a pushover for their last three opponents, racking up several sacks and shutting down the running game of Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams (although that was more self-imposed) and Brian Westbrook last week. Like I said, I’m sick of hearing how fresh Willie Parker is and there’s no way for me to think he’s going to be the difference in this game --- he’s not. In order for Pittsburgh to succeed, they MUST rely on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger to find the injured Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington and TE Heath Miller over the middle and downfield. Arizona’s defense is much like Pittsburgh’s, as they take chances and love to blitz from all angles and areas of the field. They led the NFC in takeaways and we all know how much Big Ben loves to give the ball away. He’s been sacked for an average of 19 YPG this season and last year when these two hooked up Arizona sacked Roethlisberger four times for -39 yards. Pittsburgh will definitely be able to throw the ball with some success, but so did Tom Brady and the Patriots last year and we all saw the results of that game.
And for those who have been telling me that the Steelers defense will be the best Arizona has seen all season and how they will be able to shut down Edgerrin James while easily sacking Kurt Warner might want to think again. Warner has been sacked for just -12 YPG this season and was sacked only twice last week by the blitz-happy Eagles. If it were up to Mike Tomlin, I’m not sure the Steelers would be a 3-4 defense, but Tomlin has left that to Dick LeBeau and his defensive staff to figure out. So far so good. Tomlin is a disciple of Monte Kiffin and his Tampa 2 style of defense and might get into somewhat of an internal struggle if the Cardinals find success through the air early.
And speaking of coaches, the Cardinals staff is full of guys who have coached with the Steelers at some point so you can expect them to have the upper hand, at least early on, when it comes to being one step ahead of your opponent. Remember Tampa vs. Oakland a few years back? Jon Gruden knew everything about the Raiders from the previous years and used that to his advantage in the Super Bowl. This is TOO BIG of a fact to overlook because Whisenhunt and his staff know the ins-and-outs of the entire Steelers’ organization.
They’re 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight vs. the AFC for a reason and you can bet they’ll use any information they have to their advantage in this one. They’re good folks… they’re really good and they could easily get the SU win in Super Bowl XLIII. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 24 or more points in two of their last four games (31 to Tennessee and 24 to San Diego) and I’m telling you Arizona’s offense is better than what this defense has seen all season. Take the points and enjoy your Super Bowl winner.
PROP PLAYS FOR FUN
Both Teams to Make A FG of 33 YDS. Or Longer ---- YES
Team with Most Time of Possession --- ARIZONA
Kurt Warner Total Pass Attempts --- UNDER 40.5
Will Tim Hightower Score --- YES
Triple Threat Sports
2* Pittsburgh (-7) over Arizona
3* Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Arizona
3* Pittsburgh/Arizona UNDER 46.5/47
Five minutes after the NFC Championship Game was over, we had made our line on this game, and it was Pittsburgh -8 with a total of 43. Two weeks later not much has changed, and we like the Steelers and the Under here. We like the Steeler side because we really like experience in big games in any sport, and most of the Pittsburgh roster has SB pedigree as this team was here just a couple of years ago in the win over Seattle. It is true that Kurt Warner and some other Cardinals have played in a Super Bowl, but collectively the Pitt edge in that category is too much to ignore. Another factor is that the public and bettors in Vegas are in love with the Cardinals; call it a Giants vs Patriots hangover if you will. You would all be amazed how many times we have heard something to the effect of "well the Giants won last year, the Cardinals can do it this year" in sportsbooks over the last two weeks, when the fact of the matter is that the game is not correlated, and if not for a once in a lifetime catch by Tyree the Giants would not have won last year. So, this rush to take the dog in Super Bowls is a bit of a knee jerk, and we will go with the better defense and more experienced team, and take the Steelers here. Numbers show that first time SB teams are just 5-11 ATS when taking on a team that has played in one, and should the line be Pitt -6.5 as it is in most places now (and probably will be at some points in the day Sunday, play smart!) note that SB favs of 3' to 6' points are 8-1 ATS.
As for the total, we do not look for the Steelers to light up the scoreboard, and the Cardinal offense is going to struggle against the staunch Steeler defnese. Also, neither team possesses a great return game, so that should not lead to any direct points off of special teams. As such, feel the line is higher than it should be, and we will accordingly take the Under, and in fact in our initial line the total was farther off the actual total than was the side. Numbers show that four straight SB's have gone Under the total, and that both teams are giving up less than 20ppg in the post season.
Our call on the final score is Pittsburgh 26, Arizona 17.
Paul Leiner
300* Cardinals +7
300* Orl/Tor Over 201.5
300* Cincy/Nova Over 131.5
25* Penn State +12.5
Erin Rynning
Pittsburgh/Arizona Over
Nick Parsons
Arizona Cardinals