Early SBXLV Props
By Sportsbook.com
Super Bowl XLV Props - Steelers vs Packers
Player to score the 1st Touchdown
Greg Jennings (Packers) +500
James Starks (Packers) +700
Jordy Nelson (Packers) +1200
James Jones (Packers) +1200
Donald Driver (Packers) +1200
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) +1500
John Kuhn (Packers) +1800
Andrew Quarless (Packers) +2000
Brandon Jackson (Packers) +3000
Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers) +500
Mike Wallace (Steelers) +700
Heath Miller (Steelers) +1200
Hines Ward (Steelers) +1200
Emmanuel Sanders (Steelers) +1500
Antonio Brown (Steelers) +1500
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) +2000
Isaac Redman (Steelers) +2500
Mewelde Moore (Steelers) +3000
Super Bowl XLV Game Props
Coin Toss
Heads -105
Tails -105
Team to Win the Coin Toss
Steelers -105
Packers -105
Team to Receive the Opening Kick Off will be?
Steelers -105
Packers -105
Will Either Team Score in the First 6 1/2 Minutes of the Game?
Yes -140
No +110
Team to Score First
Steelers -105
Packers -125
First Score of the Game will be?
Touchdown -170
Any Other Score +140
Steelers - Total Points
Over 21.5 (-115)
Under 21.5 (-115)
Packers - Total Points
Over 24 (-115)
Under 24 (-115)
Longest Touchdown of the Game
Over 43.5 (-115)
Under 43.5 (-115)
NBA vs. SBXLV Props
Sportsbook.com has listed their cross-sport proposition wagers for Super Bowl XLV. The props listed below are associated with the NBA.
Four pro basketball games are scheduled for Sunday, Feb. 6 - All times listed Eastern
12:00 p.m. - Indiana at New Jersey
12:00 p.m. - L.A. Clippers at Miami
12:00 p.m. - Philadelphia at New York
2:30 p.m. - Orlando at Boston
In the below props, the Listed Players Must Play for each bet to be valid.
Who Will Have More?
L.A. Clippers 1st Quarter Points (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers + Green Bay Packers 1st Half Points (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Blake Griffin (L.A. Clippers) Points (-115)
Green Bay Packers Points (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Blake Griffin (L.A. Clippers) Rebounds (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers + Green Bay Packers 2nd Quarter Points (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Blake Griffin (L.A. Clippers) Points + Rebounds +3.5 (-115)
Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers) Receiving Yards -3.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Miami Heat Points -29.5 (-115)
Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers) Rushing Yards +29.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
LeBron James (Miami Heat) Points -7.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers Points +7.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Dwayne Wade (Miami Heat) Points -3.5 (-115)
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) Completions +3.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
LeBron James (Miami Heat) Points + Rebounds + Assists +1.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers + Green Bay Packers Points -1.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
DeAndre Jordan (L.A. Clippers) Points + Rebounds +1.5 (-115)
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) Completions -1.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
(No FG=No Action)
LeBron James (Miami Heat) Points + Assists -0.5 (-115)
Distance Of 1st Made Field Goal in Super Bowl XLV +0.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
L.A. Clippers + Miami Heat 1st Quarter Points -3.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers + Green Bay Packers Points +3.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Largest Lead by: L.A. Clippers or Miami Heat +4.5 (-115)
Green Bay Packers Points -4.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Total 3 Point FGs Made By: L.A. Clippers + Miami Heat (-115)
Distance Of 1st TD Pass in Super Bowl XLV (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Jrue Holiday (Philadelphia 76ers) Points (-115)
Largest Lead By: Pittsburgh Steelers or Green Bay Packers (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Amare Stoudemire (New York Knicks) Points + Rebounds +2.5 (-115)
Hines Ward (Pittsburgh Steelers) Receiving Yards -2.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Raymond Felton (New York Knicks) Points + Assists +10.5 (-115)
Heath Miller (Pittsburgh Steelers) Receiving Yards -10.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic) Points + Rebounds +1.5 (-115)
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) Pass Attempts -1.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic) Points +3.5 (-125)
Green Bay Packers Points -3.5 (-105)
Who Will Have More?
Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic) Free Throws Made +1.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers + Green Bay Packers 1st Quarter Points -1.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Jason Richardson (Orlando Magic) Points -4.5 (-125)
Margin of Victory in Super Bowl XLV +4.5 (-105)
Who Will Have More?
Jameer Nelson (Orlando Magic) Assists -0.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh Steelers + Green Bay Packers Total Touchdowns +0.5 (-125)
Who Will Have More?
Paul Pierce (Boston Celtics) Points + Rebounds + Assists +9.5 (-115)
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) Longest Completion -9.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Kevin Garnett (Boston Celtics) Free Throws Made -1 (-115)
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) TD Passes +1 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Ray Allen (Boston Celtics) Points + Assists +4.5 (-115)
Green Bay Packers Points -4.5 (-115)
Who Will Have More?
Rajon Rondo (Boston Celtics) Points + Rebounds + Assists +7.5 (-115)
James Jones (Green Bay Packers) Receiving Yards -7.5 (-115)
Super Bowl Betting: Analyzing prop odds
By: Adam Markowitz
How many times will the FOX broadcast crew mention Ol’ No. 4?
Super Bowl XLV props this season range from the ridiculous to the sublime, and here at DonBest we're taking a look at a few of the prototypical props, and a few that are just a tad bit off the board from the norm.
Tim Masthay Longest Punt Over/Under 55.5 Yards
Masthay has really been eating his Wheaties of late, uncorking some big-time punts. He had a 65-yarder against the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship, the longest boot of his entire career, and he has had at least one punt of 54 yards in five out of six games.
Knowing that this game is played in perfect weather conditions and not in the slop of Soldier Field or Lambeau Field, this is a perfect chance for Masthay to shine. Masthay Longest Punt Over 55.5 Yards -115
Brett Favre Spoken Over/Under 2.5 Times
We know that Joe Buck and Troy Aikman have this man crush on No. 4, but there are so many other ways to refer to him than "Brett Favre." Part of the trick of Super Bowl props is remembering the rules. This rule explicitly states that we must hear "Brett Favre," first and last name together.
Sure, it's a slam dunk to happen once, and it very well could happen twice. It might seem like a certainty, but this is anything but. "Brett Favre Spoken Under 2.5 Times +140
Total Passing Yards By Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 275.5
We know that the Steelers really don't have the greatest pass defense in the world, and we know that trying to run the ball against them is about as successful most of the time as trying to run through a brick wall. But this is an awful lot of passing yards for any man to get in a Super Bowl.
Rodgers proved two weeks ago against the Chicago Bears that when he gets hit, he isn't nearly as effective as he is when he is standing upright. There isn't a team in the league that can get after the passer like Pittsburgh can, and if Rodgers really does take some shots, it's going to be hard to see him getting to this type of a number.
With RB James Starks getting more and more of the carries than Rodgers is used to giving out on a regular basis, we tend to believe that the former Cal Golden Bear will come up short of this figure. Rodgers Under 275.5 Passing Yards +100
Will Green Bay Score in All Four Quarters?
This is something that has happened a grand total of twice all season long against the Steelers defense. The New York Jets pulled off the stunt, and the Miami Dolphins did it. Even the great New England Patriots, who scored 39 points against these Steelers in Pittsburgh, couldn't figure out how to put at least a few points on the board in all four quarters.
Don't expect to see the Packers all of a sudden figure out how to do the unthinkable against this defense either. Packers to Not Score in All Four Quarters -300
Super Bowl XLV player prop picks
By Sean Murphy
The Super Bowl truly is prop heaven, where novice and sharp bettors alike lay down their hard-earned cash on everything from the coin flip to what songs the Black Eyed Peas will perform at halftime.
With so many props to choose from, narrowing it down to only the most lucrative can be a major chore.
Don’t sweat it. Here are five bets for you to consider Sunday.
Most passing yards
Aaron Rodgers is undoubtedly the trendy pick, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t the right one.
I love the way the Packers wide receivers match up against the Steelers secondary. It’s all about speed, with this game being played on a fast track in Dallas. In that regard, I give a major advantage to guys like Greg Jennings and James Jones against the Steelers’ last line of defense.
Rodgers will face plenty of heat against an aggressive Steelers pass rush, but he’s shown the ability to make something out of nothing time and time again.
The same can be said for Ben Roethlisberger, but the difference is his targets will be blanketed by a pair of shutdown corners in Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams. Again, speed is key and Woodson and Williams have the legs to keep up with Wallace, Sanders and Brown.
Take: Rodgers
Most receptions
The matchup I’ll look at is Hines Ward against Donald Driver.
Both players have seen their workload diminish this season, but Driver has actually taken on a larger role in the playoffs.
Hines Ward has made just five catches for 39 yards in the last two games and that should come as no surprise. Ben Roethlisberger has done an excellent job spreading the ball around, with no player recording more than two receptions in the Steelers win over the Jets.
That balance should continue against the Packers and I simply don’t see Ward having any sort of advantage against the Green Bay defense.
Donald Driver was limited to just one catch in the Packers win over the Bears. But prior to that, he hauled in 11 catches in the first two rounds of the playoffs. That was despite battling through a knee injury suffered in the Wildcard Round.
The extra time off is a major plus for the veteran receiver, who just turned 36 Wednesday.
Take: Driver
Most sacks
I have a lot of respect for the Steelers pass rush, but I’ll take a shot with the Packers, as I have even more respect for Aaron Rodgers.
Ben Roethlisberger will be working behind an offensive line that may have all hands on deck, but won’t be 100 percent healthy. Center Maurkice Pouncey arrived in Dallas on crutches, but the word is that he still plans on suiting up Sunday.
Keep in mind, Big Ben has already been sacked eight times in two playoff games and both of those came at the friendly confines of Heinz Field. Roethlisberger is excellent at escaping pressure, but he’s also prone to holding onto the football a little too long.
Aaron Rodgers has only been sacked five times in three playoff games and that’s a major accomplishment considering those three games all came on the road against excellent pass rushes in Philadelphia, Atlanta and Chicago.
Rodgers’ ability to avoid sacks really attests to the play of the Packers offensive line and the outstanding route running by the wide receivers.
Take: Green Bay
John Kuhn rushing attempts
Go over 2.5 rush attempts for Kuhn Sunday (+120).
The Packers aren’t expected to run the ball often, but I still believe that Kuhn will be a significant part of their offensive gameplan. He’s undoubtedly their most physical runner, a guy they’ll turn to as a change of pace and also in goal-line situations.
James Starks and Brandon Jackson are still one and two on the depth chart, but I’m not sure that either will have much success against Pittsburgh.
You can also find a yardage prop for Kuhn, but I’m not quite as sold on his ability to make any headway against the Steelers run defense. They’ve given up a grand total of just six rushing touchdowns all season.
Shortest rushing touchdown in the game
I’ll go under 1.5 yards (-125).
I always like to consider this prop and I think it sets up particularly well in this year’s matchup.
We’ve seen a one-yard touchdown run in each of the five playoff games involving these two teams this year and I don’t expect that trend to reverse Sunday.
Both teams possess physical runners capable of taking it in from a yard out, even against two bruising defenses. There’s also the scrambling of both quarterbacks to consider and the Steelers wide variety of QB-sneak looks.
Sixth Sense Prop Plays
A couple of items before we get to the props. These will not count on the record because many people won’t be able to play them or the lines will vary dramatically from what is here, etc.
They are meant more as a guide as to what I think may happen and maybe between those and what I say below you can use the information to find other props as well.
I expect the Packers to throw a lot in this game because Pittsburgh doesn’t have the depth in the secondary to cover four and five receiver sets. With that said, Mike McCarthy also says it’s important to get carries out of the rushing game. He isn’t concerned with yards per carry as much as attempts to keep the balance on the rest of the offense.
As much as they will be throwing the ball, it’s hard to tell who will get the receptions so with the exception of one player, I am avoiding receivers on the props.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, ran the ball 46% of the time this year but when they played better teams that number decreased to 41%. They were able to run the ball against the weaker teams but forced to throw when playing playoff teams. So, as much as they like to run the ball, don’t be surprised if they throw more than their seasonal numbers would indicate.
The Packers allowed 4.6 yards per rush during the regular season but only 3.5 yards per play during the playoffs. And, when they had their defense healthy (with current group of guys), their defense has been very tough against the run as well.
I play these for about 1/3 of a regular side or total play. Be careful and don’t go nuts. If you have any questions, please let me know.
SB PROPS
James Starks plus yards over Rashard Mendenhall
I am seeing +24.5 yards but quite honestly I would play this at +15 or better. Starks hasn’t been great rushing the ball outside the Philadelphia game but GB has been solid defending the run and will look to stop Pittsburgh’s rushing attack.
Jordy Nelson over 3.5 receptions +130
I like Nelson who is a possession type receiver and as long as you can get 3.5 at even or better I like the play.
Over 5.5 sacks at +115 or better
Both teams are strong in sacks this year and both qb’s like to hold the ball trying to create something, which leads to more sacks as well.
Clay Matthews over ½ sack -160
I would play this up to -200. Matthews is a sack machine and the Packers will give him plenty of opportunities to get to the qb.
Desmond Bishop over 7 tackles and assists -130
As long as we get -135 or better I think there is value
James Farrior over 7 tackles and assists +105
I would play this at even or better OR over 6.5 at -155 or better
Troy Polamalu over 4.5 tackles and assists -135
I like this at -150 or better
Rashard Mendenhall under 18.5 rushing attempts +130
I would play this at even or better. I’ve also seen under 20 at -175 or better. Packers will look to stop the run first and if Pittsburgh gets behind they will need to throw more as well.
James Starks over 16.5 rushing attempts +110
I would play this at 17 or lower. Starks has run 23, 25 and 22 times in the playoffs. Yes, the Steelers are tougher to run on but McCarthy likes to get his rushing attempts so there should be plenty of opportunities here. Knowing the only way the opportunities don’t happen is if the Packers fall way behind, that isn’t likely because GB hasn’t trailed by more than seven points this year.
Pittsburgh under 21.5 points -120
GB just doesn’t give up points so under 21.5 is a good play knowing GB has only allowed more than 20 points on the road this year twice and that was because of turnovers and special teams.
If you can find Roethlisberger over 30.5 passing attempts at even or better I like that play as well.
I would also play GB over 7.5 players with a reception if you can find it at +145 or better.
Lenny Del Genio
Will there be a defensive/special teams TD scored in the game? Yes +145 | No -170
We like to look for at least a few props where we can get 'plus money.' This is one such opportunity. Both teams ranked in the top six in the league in takeaways with the Steelers forcing 35 and the Packers 32. In the respective conference championship games, both teams scored a defensive TD. Last time Pittsburgh was in a Super Bowl, James Harrison returned an INT nearly 100 yards for a touchdown. Last time Green Bay was in a Super Bowl, return specialist Desmond Howard returned a punt for a TD. In last year's Super Bowl, the Saints clinched victory over Colts with an INT return for a TD. +145 odds is great value.
Which will be the highest scoring quarter? 1st Q +400 | 2nd Q +160 | 3rd Q +400 | 4th Q +200
Again, we are trying to look for 'plus money.' We looked over the last three Super Bowls and found there has been a disproportionate amount of scoring in the 4th quarter. In fact, those three fourth quarters saw: 15, 24 and 21 points scored. In sum, of the 129 points scored the last three Super Bowls, 59 of them were scored in the final quarter. There is always a feeling out process early in the game.
Hockey SB Props
By Judd Hall
If you were thinking that there wasn’t anymore that a betting shop could do to get action on the Super Bowl, then you were wrong. Gamblers can wager on more than just Christina Aguilera singing the National Anthem or the color of Gatorade that’ll get tossed on the head coach of the winning team.
Luckily for the more seasoned bettor, we can use a little more brainpower on some of the props for the big game. That’s because outlets like Sportsbook.com have posted loads of cross-sport options from golf, soccer, NBA and NHL.
On the ice, Sportsbook.com has eight different plays that coincide with the Super Bowl. Let’s look at a couple of these “who will have more” wagers, shall we?
Capitals’ shots on goal or Packers’ points?
It’s good to see the NHL give fans a reason to keep an eye on them for Super Sunday with its premier rivalry going right now in the Capitals and Penguins at the Verizon Center.
Washington hasn’t been the prolific scoring team that we’ve seen over the past few years. That isn’t stopping them from shooting on target with blind abandon, averaging 31.7 shots on goal this season.
The Caps are getting compared with the Packers’ points production, which are expecting the world out of for this game. But I have a feeling that a lot of people are expecting the 37-36 game they had with the Steelers last year. I’m going to side with the caution of how we’ve seen Green Bay pull out points this postseason, averaging 30 per game. Washington has put up 34 and 32 SOG against the Penguins in two meetings this season.
Sportsbook.com has Washington listed at -8½ for this game and that is just way too much for me to think they’ll cover.
Prop Play: Green Bay +8½ (-115)
Steven Stamkos points or Aaron Rodgers touchdown passes?
This prop might sound like a tough one to handicap, but that won’t stop us.
Steven Stamkos is one of the best players in hockey in just three seasons, having scored 39 goals and 68 points overall…both are the top marks in the NHL. And he’ll be taking on a hard luck team in the Blues on Sunday afternoon. Stamkos has had decent luck against St. Louis in his young career, registering four points in two games. And the Blues are giving at least four goals in their last four games this season.
Aaron Rodgers is a throwing fool this season, tossing 28 touchdown passes during the regular season and another six in the playoffs. And he threw for three scores in last year’s meeting with the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Do I think Stamkos will have a great outing against the Blues? Absolutely. Will Rodgers get some good looks on a suspect Pittsburgh secondary? Yes, he will. Ultimately, I feel like these two will wind up on an equal number. That means we’re siding on the ice.
Prop Play: Steven Stamkos +½ (-170)
Vegasinsider.com
Super Bowl Props: Sharp money report
By Teddy Covers
Sharps are not loading up on either side for this game. They loved Green Bay at pick 'em, they loved Pittsburgh at +3. Now that the pointspread has settled between the two numbers, we're seeing lukewarm support for both sides, perhaps a notch or two more on the Packers side.
We definitely saw a bevy of sharps pounding the Under when it hit 46 last week; now down to 44 or 44.5. Sharps love the Dom Capers vs. Dick LeBeau defensive coordinator matchup with extra time to prepare. And we've seen Unders cash in five of the last six Super Bowls. The Steelers vs. Cardinals Super Bowl was the only recent exception, and that game was a dead nuts Under until a wild final five minutes.
Enough with the side and total! The real story about the Super Bowl comes from the plethora of proposition wagers available to wager on. For the sake of brevity, I'm going to concentrate on prop bets that are A.) at the Hilton and B.) were bet hard when the Hilton opened their numbers last week. Jay Kornegay and his staff are the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here.
Aaron Rodgers got bet up for his rushing numbers. Rodgers’ first rush of the game Over 4.5 yards took money, as did the Over 18.5 rushing yards for the game. Bettors expect him to scramble out of the pocket against LeBeau's blitzes effectively, like he's done all year.
There was also some upwards pressure on Rodgers at O/U 18.5 completions. The thought process goes like this: Pittsburgh had the best defense in the NFL at avoiding explosive plays – no team in the NFL allowed fewer plays of 20 yards or more this year. We can expect Rodgers to have to throw underneath which equals more completions, not more yardage. The yardage prop (O/U 274.5) has not moved nearly as much as the “Over completions” has moved.
Jordy Nelson is attracting quite a bit of wise guy support at O/U 40.5 yards and O/U 3.5 catches. Again, the season long numbers suggest a bet on the Under, but current form demands a play on the Over. In two playoff games: Nelson has eight and four catches, for 79 and 67 yards. Like Green Bay's defense, the Steelers have shown vulnerability to third and fourth receivers with their blitzing schemes.
James Starks Over 16 carries. Bettors watched Starks unable to gain yardage or first downs as Green Bay struggled to run out the clock against the Bears in the NFC Championship Game. And they know that the Steelers had the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL this year. That's why Starks Over 49.5 yards hasn't attracted as much attention as his number of carries. Green Bay is favored, so Starks should get his fair share of carries in the second half if the Packers try to run out the clock. In three playoff games, he's had 23, 25 and 22 rushing attempts, despite only getting 29 for the entire regular season. Bettors expect that current form to continue.
Heath Miller -23.5 receiving yards vs. John Kuhn: Money poured in on Miller: 23.5 -120, then 26.5 -120, then 28.5 -120. Money also came on Heath Miller over 37.5 receiving yards for the game. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable to big days from opposing tight ends – their secondary does a dynamite job containing first and second receivers, but not so good against the tight ends going over the middle.
Ben Roethlisberger first half passing yards vs. second half passing yards: This line opened pick -120 on the second half, and immediately got hit with heavy money on the 2nd half. The thought process here is two-fold: Green Bay is favored and Pitt came out running vs. the Jets. Green Bay favored means that they should be leading at halftime, forcing Pittsburgh into a more pass heavy attack. Pittsburgh ran against the Jets and it worked, so expect a similar gameplan here resulting in fewer Roethlisberger pass attempts (and therefore passing yards) in the first half.
Every year, wise guys lay heavy juice on props that the squares love to hit at plus prices. The classic here is the “Will there be overtime?” The “No” has cashed every year since the Super Bowl started. Squares bet the “Yes” every year looking for the long shot score. Sharps happily lay -1100 to win $100 on the “No”.
Sharps bet the “No” on “Will Troy Polamalu record an interception” at -300. Polamalu is not going to be 100%; he was basically a non-factor in the first two playoff games. This is another type of heavy juice prop that professional bettors are willing to lay, while squares look for the plus price on the “Yes”.
It's a similar story on the “Will there be a safety” prop (also a near 10:1 shot), and the “Will either team score three straight times”, with the “Yes” (what wise guys bet) at -175 and the “No” at a nice plus price. Sharps also look to bet “Shortest touchdown of the game under 1.5 yards”, while squares bet that same prop Over 1.5 yards, even though it tends to be priced in the -115 range.
We've seen sharp money coming in on “Different Packers with a rushing attempt” Over 4. Green Bay's last eight games saw four with four rushers and four with five rushers. Those are very different recent numbers compared to their full season numbers. James Starks, Aaron Rodgers, John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson are virtual locks to get at least one carry, so this bet becomes something of a free roll: one end around or reverse and Over tickets cash. Pittsburgh was lined at 4.5 rushers; not taking anywhere near the same amount of Over money.
Some books opened Packers and Steelers O/U 6.5 different players with a reception. Hilton opened that prop O/U 7.5. Needless to say, the books that opened 6.5 are now Over -200 or higher.
Player to get first reception: Mike Wallace vs. Greg Jennings. Jennings got bet hard, now a heavy favorite. Current form shows a dramatic decline from Wallace in the playoffs, catching only four passes in Pittsburgh’s two wins. Meanwhile, the Packers targeted Jennings with their first two plays from scrimmage in the NFC Championship, and he finished the game with eight receptions for the second consecutive week.
Let's not forget those punters! Tim Masthay of Green Bay took some $$ with his longest punt Over 54.5 yards bet up to 55 -130 right from the get-go. Masthay also took some “no touchback” money, even at -200. He only had five touchbacks all year, compared to 25 punts downed inside the 20.
Top Super Bowl Prop Tips
By Marc Lawrence
Super Bowl XLV in Arlington, Texas kicks off February 6 when Green Bay meets Pittsburgh with the Packers looking to become the first No. 6 seed from the NFC to win the coveted prize.
Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet more often this time of the year than homosexuals at a gay rally.
It’s important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the oddsmaker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent ‘juice’ edge in his favor. Thus, it’s critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.
In addition, the props are designed to create more action for the books.
"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, director of Race and Sports at the Las Vegas Hilton.
Furthermore, it’s important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.
According to Kornegay, this is the only NFL game of the year where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.
Here are some “tips” on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year’s Super Bowl.
1. The Coin Toss
A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It’s fast and it takes place just prior to kick-off. It has also witnessed the NFC winning the pre-game coin flip each of the last 13 years in a row. What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year’s coin flip: 50/50.
2.Quarterback Action Tops Player Props
Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 23 times in 44 previous Super Bowl games. Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP’s.
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger lead the charge this year. In head-to-head proposition competition the Hilton favors Rodgers by 30.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns over Roethlisberger.
3. Sacks Are Not Tackles
When betting on the over/under number of tackles it’s important to know that sacks are not recorded as a tackle.
4. Team Scoring Tendencies
Certain edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the oddsmaker eyes.
Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring and averages for-and-against in all games played this season for both squads -
1Q – Green Bay: 88-46 / 4.64-2.43
1Q – Pittsburgh: 72-63 / 4.00-3.50
2Q – Green Bay: 162-102 / 8.53–5.37
2Q – Pittsburgh: 165-42 / 9.17-2.34
3Q – Green Bay: 131-40 / 6.90-2.11
3Q – Pittsburgh: 107-46 / 5.95-2.56
4Q – Green Bay: 110-87 / 5.79-4.58
4Q – Pittsburgh: 127-114 / 7.06-6.34
Notice that Green Bay’s defense has been its stingiest in the 3Q this season, whereas Pittsburgh’s defense has performed at its best level in the 2Q. Meanwhile, both the Packers and Steelers offenses were most effective in the 2Q and least effective in the opening stanza.
Incidentally, each team played two overtimes games this season, with Pittsburgh winning both (9-0) and Green Bay losing both (0-6).
5. Player Scoring Tendencies
The leading candidate to score first in Super Bowl XLV is Pittsburgh RB Rashard Mendenhall. He tied for 2nd in rushing touchdowns this season with 13.
Behind Mendenhall in the prop wars to score first is Green Bay WR Greg Jennings with Pittsburgh WR Mike Wallace next in line.
Interestingly, Jennings leads the NFL in postseason receptions with 17 for 239 yards through the first three games of the 2011 playoffs, but zero touchdown receptions so far. Look for the Packers’ top receiver to finally find the end zone.
Over the previous 44 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 17 times. Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.
6. Odd Props
Melding Super Bowl props with other sports (i.e. - will there be more sacks in the Super Bowl or shots on goal by Washington Capitals’ Alexander Ovechkin in his team’s game against the Pittsburgh Penguins) is another popular prop.
One personality prop that fans are sure to be attracted to is the over/under on the amount of times Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones will appear live on the cameras during the game (photos do not count). The opening number is 2.5. Our best guess is that while Jones loves hogging camera time, we won’t see his made-over mug more than twice.
Another is the length of time it will take pop singer Christina Aguilera to sing the national anthem. Knowing it took her 1:54 seconds to perform the same in the 2010 NBA finals, and figuring she will want as much air-time as possible, the ‘over’ 1:53 sounds like music to our ears.
With this, the question becomes: “Which history repeats itself?”
Bodog Super Bowl Prop Bets
NOVELTY PROPS
Super Bowl XLV – How long will it take Christina Aguilera to sing the National Anthem?
Over/Under 1 minute 50 seconds
Super Bowl XLV – How long will Christina Aguilera hold the note “Brave” at the end of the National Anthem?
Over/Under 6 seconds
Super Bowl XLV Specials – Will Christina Aguilera wear a cowboy hat while singing the National Anthem?
Yes 3/1
Super Bowl XLV Specials – Will Christina Aguilera’s hair color be anything except completely blonde when she sings the National Anthem?
Yes 7/4
Super Bowl XLV Specials – What will Fergie be wearing when she appears first on stage during the Super Bowl Halftime Show?
Skirt/Dress 1/1
Pants (Below Knees) 1/1
Shorts (Above Knees) 7/2
Thong/G-String/Bikini Bottom 10/1
(Wager is on what she is wearing first on stage. If she is not wearing any of the above all wagers will be No Action.)
Super Bowl XLV Specials – Will Fergie be dressed as a Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader at any point during the Halftime show?
Yes 5/1
Super Bowl XLV – How Many Times will FOX show Jerry Jones on TV during the Game?
Over/Under 3
(Wager is on the number of times Jerry Jones will appear on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live pictures only, Any Taped Pictures or Past Video does not count towards wager.)
Super Bowl XLV – Who will FOX show first on TV during the game?
Jessica Szohr (Aaron Rodgers’ Girlfriend) -140
Ahsley Harlan (Ben Roethlisberger’s Fiancee) +100
(Wager is on who will be shown on TV first during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live pictures only, Any Taped Pictures or Past Video does not count towards wager.)
Super Bowl XLV – How Many Times will FOX mention “Brett Favre” on TV during the Game?
Over/Under 2.5
(Wager is on the number of times “Brett Favre” will be mentioned on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live commentary only, Any Taped or Past Video does not count towards wager, must say “Brett Favre” exactly.)
Super Bowl XLV – How Many Times will FOX mention “Lockout” on TV during the Game?
Over/Under 2.5
(Wager is on the number of times “Lockout” will be mentioned on TV during the Game (from kick off until final whistle). Live commentary only, Any Taped or Past Video does not count towards wager, must say “Lockout” exactly.)
Super Bowl XLV – Who will the FOX announcers say has better hair TV during the Game?
Troy Polamalu -120
Clay Matthews-120
(Must be a direct reference on TV during the Game comparing the 2 players or wagers will be graded as No Action (from kick off until final whistle). Live commentary only, Any Taped or Past Video does not count towards wager.)
Super Bowl XLV – What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?
Yellow 3/2
Clear/Water 2/1
Orange 5/2
Lime Green 5/1
Red 15/2
Blue 10/1
Super Bowl XLV – What side of the ball will the Players that perform the Gatorade Shower be from?
Offensive 150
Defensive -200
Super Bowl XLV – Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game thank first?
God 3/2
Does Not Thank Anyone 2/1
Teammates 5/2
Family 4/1
Coach 10/1
Super Bowl XLV – Will a punt hit the scoreboard during the game?
Yes 10/1
Super Bowl XLV Specials – Will a Steelers player do the Aaron Rodgers Championship Belt Celebration during the game?
Yes EVEN
No -140
Super Bowl XLV Specials – Will Any Player do the Lambeau Leap after a TD?
Yes 2/1
Super Bowl XLV – Will B.J.Raji be on the field for at least 1 offensive play?
Yes -175
No +135
Super Bowl XLV – Who will President Obama pick to win the game?
Pittsburgh Steelers -140
Green Bay Packers +100
Super Bowl XLV -How many current NFL Players will be arrested during Super Bowl Week?
Over 0.5 +150
Under 0.5 -200
Super Bowl XLV – Which Super Bowl commercial will have a higher rating on USA Today’s annual Ad Meter?
Bud Light 11/4
Budweiser 11/4
Doritos 11/2
Pepsi Max 6/1
GoDaddy.com 10/1
Skechers 12/1
Teleflora 15/1
Other 5/2
Super Bowl XLV Specials – If there is a picture of someone holding the Lombardi Trophy on the Cover of the USA Today on Monday February 7th, who will it be?
Aaron Rodgers 3/2
Ben Roethlisberger 3/1
Troy Polamalu 12/1
Clay Matthews 15/1
Mike Tomlin 18/1
Mike McCarthy 18/1
Any Other Pittsburgh Player 2/1
Any Other Green Bay Player 2/1
Any Other Person 15/1
Jerry Jones 100/1
SUPER BOWL XLV – Odds to win MVP
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB 7/4
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB 7/2
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) RB 15/2
Greg Jennings (GB) WR 12/1
James Starks (GB) RB 14/1
Troy Polamalu (PIT) S 15/1
Mike Wallace (PIT) WR 16/1
Clay Matthews (GB) LB 18/1
Charles Woodson (GB) CB 20/1
James Harrison (PIT) LB 22/1
Tramon Williams (GB) CB 25/1
Hines Ward (PIT) WR 25/1
Heath Miller (PIT) TE 25/1
Donald Driver (GB) WR 25/1
James Farrior (PIT) LB 28/1
Lawrence Timmons (PIT) LB 28/1
James Jones (GB) WR 30/1
Jordy Nelson (GB) WR 30/1
A.J. Hawk (GB) LB 30/1
B.J. Raji (GB) DT 30/1
Emmanuel Sanders (PIT) WR 35/1
Sam Shields (GB) CB 35/1
Cullen Jenkins (GB) DE 50/1
Brandon Jackson (GB) RB 50/1
Field 15/1
TEAM PROPS
Super Bowl XLV – What will be the result of the Super Bowl XLV Coin Toss?
Heads (Coin Toss) -105
Tails (Coin Toss) -105
Super Bowl XLV – Team to win the opening coin toss
Pittsburgh Steelers (Win Opening Coin Toss) -105
Green Bay Packers (Win Opening Coin Toss) -105
Super Bowl XLV – Team to score first in the game
Pittsburgh Steelers (Score First) -105
Green Bay Packers (Score First) -125
Super Bowl XLV – The first score of the game will be?
Touchdown -180
Field Goal or Safety +150
Super Bowl XLV – Will there be a score in the first 7min 30 seconds of the 1st quarter?
Yes (First 7 min 30 sec of 1st Qtr) -175
No (First 7 min 30 sec of 1st Qtr) +145
Super Bowl XLV – Pittsburgh Steelers Total Team Points
Over/Under 21
Super Bowl XLV – Green Bay Packers Total Team Points
Over/Udner 23.5
Super Bowl XLV – Pittsburgh Steelers Total 1st Half Team Points
Over/Under 11.5
Super Bowl XLV – Green Bay Packers Total 1st Half Team Points
Over/Under 12
Super Bowl XLV – Team to Receive the opening kickoff
Pittsburgh Steelers (Receive Opening Kickoff) -115
Green Bay Packers (Receive Opening Kickoff) -115
Super Bowl XLV – Team to get 1st down of the game
Pittsburgh Steelers (First 1st Down) -110
Green Bay Packers (First 1st Down) -120
Super Bowl XLV – The first 1st down in the game will happen on a Pass or Run play?
Passing Play (First 1st Down) -200
Rushing Play (First 1st Down) +160
Super Bowl XLV – Team to get the first 3rd down conversion in the game
Pittsburgh Steelers (First 3rd Down) -110
Green Bay Packers (First 3rd Down) -120
Super Bowl XLV – Team Offense to cross the 50 yard line first in the game
Pittsburgh Steelers (Cross 50yd Line 1st) -110
Green Bay Packers (Cross 50yd Line 1st) -120
Super Bowl XLV – Team enter the Red Zone first in the game
Pittsburgh Steelers (Enter Red Zone First) -105
Green Bay Packers (Enter Red Zone First) -125
Super Bowl XLV – First scoring play of the game
Pittsburgh Steelers – Passing Touchdown 9/2
Pittsburgh Steelers – Rushing Touchdown 5/1
Pittsburgh Steelers – Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown 20/1
Pittsburgh Steelers – Field Goal 7/2
Pittsburgh Steelers – Safety 50/1
Green Bay Packers – Passing Touchdown 4/1
Green Bay Packers – Rushing Touchdown 9/2
Green Bay Packers – Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown 20/1
Green Bay Packers – Field Goal 7/2
Green Bay Packers – Safety 50/1
Super Bowl XLV – Will Either team score 3 unanswered times in the game?
Yes (3 Unanswered Scores) -180
No (3 Unanswered Scores) +150
Super Bowl XLV – Will there be a score in the first 6min 30 seconds of the 1st quarter?
Yes (First 6 min 30 sec of 1st Qtr) -140
No (First 6 min 30 sec of 1st Qtr) +110
Super Bowl XLV – Will there be a score in the final 2 minutes of the 1st half?
Yes (Score in Final 2 Minutes of 1st Half) -260
No (Score in Final 2 Minutes of 2nd Half) +200
Super Bowl XLV – Team to score last in 1st half
Pittsburgh Steelers (Score last in 1st Half) -115
Green Bay Packers (Score last in 1st Half) -115
Super Bowl XLV – Team to Score Last in the Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (Score Last in Game) -110
Green Bay Packers (Score Last in Game) -120
Super Bowl XLV – Last Scoring Play of the Game
Touchdown -200
Field Goal or Safety +160
Super Bowl XLV – First Team to reach 10 points (or more) in the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers (First to 10) EVEN
Green Bay Packers (First to 10) -125
Neither Team Scores 10+ Points +3000
Super Bowl XLV – Which Will be the Highest Scoring Quarter?
1st Quarter +400
2nd Quarter +160
3rd Quarter +400
4th Quarter +200
Super Bowl XLV – Will there be More Points Scored in the
1st Half + ½ Pts -120
2nd Half + OT -½ Pts -110
Super Bowl XLV – Half Time / Full Time
Pittsburgh Steelers / Pittsburgh Steelers 7/4
Green Bay Packers / Pittsburgh Steelers 11/2
Tie / Pittsburgh Steelers 14/1
Tie / Green Bay Packers 12/1
Pittsburgh Steelers / Green Bay Packers 5/1
Green Bay Packers / Green Bay Packers 13/10
Super Bowl XLV – Will the game go to overtime?
Yes (Overtime) +900
No (Overtime) -1800
Super Bowl XLV – Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly 3 points?
Yes (Decided by 3 Points) +375
No (Decided by 3 Points) -550
Super Bowl XLV – Total Points – Odd or Even?
Odd -135
Even +105
Super Bowl XLV – Longest Touchdown Scored in the Game (Yardage)
Over/Udner 43.5
Super Bowl XLV – Shortest Touchdown Scored in the Game (Yardage)
Over/Under 1.5
Super Bowl XLV – How many yards will the first Touchdown of the game be?
No Touchdown in the game 50/1
0 Yard Touchdown 75/1
1-7 Yard Touchdown 1/1
8-15 Yard Touchdown 4/1
16-25 Yard Touchdown 6/1
26-39 Yard Touchdown 5/1
40-59 Yard Touchdown 7/1
60-79 Yard Touchdown 20/1
80-95 Yard Touchdown 22/1
96 or More Yard Touchdown 20/1
Super Bowl XLV – Will there be a Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown scored in the game?
Yes (Defensive or Special Teams TD) +145
No (Defensive or Special Teams TD) -175
Super Bowl XLV – Team to make the Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (Longest Field Goal) -115
Green Bay Packers (Longest Field Goal) -115
Super Bowl XLV – Will there be a safety in the game?
Yes (Safety) +800
No (Safety) -1600
Super Bowl XLV – Will there be a missed extra point after touchdown
Yes (Missed PAT) +1000
No (Missed PAT) -2000
Super Bowl XLV – The First Turnover of the Game will be?
Fumble +130
Interception -150
No Turnover In Game +800
Super Bowl XLV – Super Bowl XLV – Team to call the first timeout in the game
Pittsburgh Steelers (First Timeout) -115
Green Bay Packers (First Timeout) -115
Super Bowl XLV – Super Bowl XLV – Team to get the first penalty in the game
Pittsburgh Steelers (First Penalty) -115
Green Bay Packers (First Penalty) -115
Super Bowl XLV – Super Bowl XLV – Team to call the first coaches challenge in the game
Pittsburgh Steelers (First Coaches Challenge) -115
Green Bay Packers (First Coaches Challenge) -115
Super Bowl XLV – Super Bowl XLV – What will be the result of the first coaches challenge in the game?
Play Overturned -125
Play Stands -105
PLAYER PROPS
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Passing Yards – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Over/Under 240.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Passing Attempts – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Over/Under 31.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Completions – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Over/Under 19.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Completion % – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Over/Under 60%
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total TD Passes – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Over TD Passes O 1½ (+125)
Under TD Passes U 1½ (-155)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Exact Number of TD Passes – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
0 12/5
1 3/2
2 5/2
3 9/2
4 or more 10/1
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Interceptions – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Over Interceptions O ½ (-180)
Under Interceptions U ½ (+150)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Rushing Yards – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Over/Udner 12.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – What will be the result of Ben Roethlisberger’s (PIT) first pass attempt?
Pass Complete -220
Pass Incomplete +175
Interception +1200
SUPER BOWL XLV – What will Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) do first?
Throw a TD Pass -200
Throw an interception +160
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Rushing Yards – Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
Over/Under 77.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Rushing Yards on 1st attempt – Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
Over/Under 3.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
Over/Under 15.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
Over 1½ (-150)
Under 1½ (+120)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) score a TD in the game?
Yes -155
No +125
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Mike Wallace (PIT)
Over/Under 70.5
SUPER BOWL XLV -Total Receptions – Mike Wallace (PIT)
Over/Under 3.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Mike Wallace (PIT) score a TD in the game?
Yes +135
No -165
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Hines Ward (PIT)
Over/Under 47.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Hines Ward (PIT)
Over/Under 3.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Hines Ward (PIT) score a TD in the game?
Yes +160
No -200
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Heath Miller (PIT)
Over/Under 39.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Heath Miller (PIT)
Over/Under 3.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Heath Miller (PIT) score a TD in the game?
Yes +175
No -215
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Emmanuel Sanders (PIT)
Over/Under 35.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Emmanuel Sanders (PIT)
Over/Under 2.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Emmanuel Sanders (PIT) score a TD in the game?
Yes +195
No -250
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Antwaan Randle El (PIT)
Over/Under 15.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Antwaan Randle El (PIT)
Over/Under 1
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Antonio Brown (PIT)
Over/Under 25.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Antonio Brown (PIT)
Over/Under 2.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Tackles & Assists – James Harrison (PIT)
6.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Tackles & Assists – James Farrior (PIT)
Over/Under 7
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Tackles & Assists – Lawrence Timmons (PIT)
Over/Under 8.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Tackles & Assists – Troy Polamalu (PIT)
Over/Under 4.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Sacks – James Harrison (PIT)
Over ½ (-150)
Under ½ (+120)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Sacks – LaMarr Woodley (PIT)
Over ½ (-150)
Under ½ (+120)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Troy Polamalu (PIT) Intercept a Pass?
Yes +225
No -285
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Points – Shaun Suisham (PIT)
Over/Under 7
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Shaun Suisham (PIT) miss a Field Goal?
Yes +400
No -600
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over/Under 275.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Passing Attempts– Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over/Under 33.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Completions – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over/Under 23
SUPER BOWL XLV – Completion % – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over/Under 63.5%
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total TD Passes – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over TD Passes O 2 (+125)
Under TD Passes U 2 (-155)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Exact Number of TD Passes – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
0 4/1
1 7/4
2 2/1
3 7/2
4 or more 11/2
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Interceptions – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over Interceptions O ½ (-155)
Under Interceptions U ½ (+125)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Rushing Yards – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over/Under 20.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – What will be the result of Aaron Rodgers’ (GB) first pass attempt?
Pass Complete -225
Pass Incomplete +175
Interception +1500
SUPER BOWL XLV – What will Aaron Rodgers (GB) do First?
Throw a TD Pass -200
Throw an interception +160
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Rushing Yards – James Starks (GB)
Over/Under 52.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Rushing Yards on 1st attempt – James Starks (GB)
Over/Under 3
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – James Starks (GB)
Over/Under 9.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – James Starks (GB)
Over 1½ (+120)
Under 1½ (-150)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will James Starks (GB) score a TD in the game?
Yes +145
No -175
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Rushing Yards – Brandon Jackson (GB)
Over/Under 10.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Brandon Jackson (GB)
Over/Under 15.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Brandon Jackson (GB)
Over/Under 1.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Rushing & Receiving Yards – John Kuhn (GB)
Over/Under 19.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Greg Jennings (GB)
Over/Under 82.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Greg Jennings (GB)
Over/Under 5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Greg Jennings (GB) score a TD in the game?
Yes +105
No -135
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Donald Driver (GB)
Over/Under 45.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Donald Driver (GB)
Over/Under 3.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Donald Driver (GB) score a TD in the game?
Yes +160
No -200
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – James Jones (GB)
Over/Under 35.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – James Jones (GB)
Over/Under 3
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will James Jones (GB) score a TD in the game?
Yes +155
No -190
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Jordy Nelson (GB)
Over/Under 39.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Jordy Nelson (GB)
Over/Under 3
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Jordy Nelson (GB) score a TD in the game?
Yes +175
No -215
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receiving Yards – Andrew Quarless (GB)
Over/Under 17.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Receptions – Andrew Quarless (GB)
Over/Under 1.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Tackles & Assists – A.J. Hawk (GB)
Over/Under 6.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Tackles & Assists – Clay Matthews (GB)
Over/Under 4.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Tackles & Assists – Desmond Bishop (GB)
Over/Under 7
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Tackles & Assists – Charles Woodson (GB)
Over/Under 5.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Sacks – Clay Matthews (GB)
Over ½ (-190)
Under ½ (+155)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Sacks – B.J. Raji (GB)
Over ½ (-115)
Under ½ (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Tramon Williams (GB) Intercept a Pass?
Yes +300
No -400
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Charles Woodson (GB) Intercept a Pass?
Yes +300
No -400
SUPER BOWL XLV – Total Points – Mason Crosby (GB)
Over/Under 7.5
SUPER BOWL XLV – Will Mason Crosby (GB) miss a Field Goal?
Yes +550
No -900
HEAD TO HEAD
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will throw the first TD Pass in the game?
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB +120
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB -150
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will throw the first Interception in the game?
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB -125
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB -105
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Passing Yards in the game?
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB +35½ (EVEN)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB -35½ (-130)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Completions in the game?
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB +3½ (EVEN)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB -3½ (-130)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Rushing Yards in the game?
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB +7½ (-105)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB -7½ (-125)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more TD Passes in the game?
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB +135
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB -165
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Interceptions in the game?
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB -125
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB -105
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Rushing Yards in the game?
James Starks (GB) RB +25½ (-115)
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) RB-25½ (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receiving Yards in the game?
James Starks (GB) RB +5½ (EVEN)
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) RB-5½ (-130)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Rushing Yards in the game?
Isaac Redman (PIT) RB -5½ (-130)
John Kuhn (GB) FB +5½ (EVEN)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receiving Yards in the game?
Mike Wallace (PIT) WR +9½ (-130)
Greg Jennings (GB) WR -9½ (EVEN)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receiving Yards in the game?
Hines Ward (PIT) WR -½ (-115)
Donald Driver (GB) WR +½ (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receiving Yards in the game?
Emmanuel Sanders (PIT) WR +5½ (-120)
Jordy Nelson (GB) WR -5½ (-110)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receiving Yards in the game?
Heath Miller (PIT) TE -4½ (EVEN)
James Jones (GB) WR +4½ (-130)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receiving Yards in the game?
Antwaan Randle El (PIT) WR +2½ (-130)
Andrew Quarless (GB) TE -2½ (EVEN)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receptions in the game?
Hines Ward (PIT) WR Pick (-115)
Donald Driver (GB) WR Pick (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receptions in the game?
Mike Wallace (PIT) WR +1½ (-115)
Greg Jennings (GB) WR -1½ (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receptions in the game?
James Jones (GB) WR Pick (EVEN)
Jordy Nelson (GB) WR Pick (-130)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receptions in the game?
Emmanuel Sanders (PIT) WR +1½ (-130)
Heath Miller (PIT) TE -1½ (EVEN)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Receptions in the game?
Brandon Jackson (GB) RB Pick (+120)
Andrew Quarless (GB) TE Pick (-150)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who catch a pass first in the game?
Mike Wallace (PIT) WR +105
Greg Jennings (GB) WR -135
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who catch a pass first in the game?
Hines Ward (PIT) WR -115
Donald Driver (GB) WR -115
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who catch a pass first in the game?
James Jones (GB) WR -110
Jordy Nelson (GB) WR -120
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who catch a pass first in the game?
Greg Jennings (GB) WR -150
Donald Driver (GB) WR +120
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who catch a pass first in the game?
Mike Wallace (PIT) WR -120
Hines Ward (PIT) WR -110
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who catch a pass first in the game?
Emmanuel Sanders (PIT) WR +105
Heath Miller (PIT) TE -135
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who catch a pass first in the game?
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) RB -150
James Starks (GB) RB +120
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who catch a pass first in the game?
John Kuhn (GB) FB -110
Brandon Jackson (GB) RB -120
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who catch a pass first in the game?
Mike Wallace (PIT) WR -130
Donald Driver (GB) WR EVEN
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who catch a pass first in the game?
Hines Ward (PIT) WR +120
Greg Jennings (GB) WR -150
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more points in the game?
Shaun Suisham (PIT) K +½ (-130)
Mason Crosby (GB) K -½ (EVEN)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Tackles & Assists in the game?
James Farrior (PIT) LB Pick (-105)
Desmond Bishop (GB) LB Pick (-125)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Tackles & Assists in the game?
James Harrison (PIT) LB -1½ (EVEN)
Charles Woodson (GB) CB +1½ (-130)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Who will record more Tackles & Assists in the game?
Lawrence Timmons (PIT) LB -2½ (-105)
A.J. Hawk (GB) LB +2½ (-125)
SUPER BOWL XLV – Player to score the first TD in the game
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) RB 5/1
Greg Jennings (GB) WR 13/2
Mike Wallace (PIT) WR 15/2
James Starks (GB) RB 17/2
John Kuhn (GB) FB 12/1
Hines Ward (PIT) WR 12/1
Heath Miller (PIT) TE 12/1
Donald Driver (GB) WR 12/1
James Jones (GB) WR 12/1
Jordy Nelson (GB) WR 14/1
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB 14/1
Emmanuel Sanders (PIT) WR 16/1
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB 16/1
Brandon Jackson (GB) RB 18/1
Andrew Quarless (GB) TE 20/1
Isaac Redman (PIT) RB 20/1
Antonio Brown (PIT) WR 25/1
Mewelde Moore (PIT) RB 28/1
Donald Lee (GB) TE 28/1
Any Other Pittsburgh Player 14/1
Any Other Green Bay Player 14/1
No TD Scored In The Game 50/1
SUPER BOWL XLV – Player to score the first Pittsburgh TD in the game
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) RB 5/2
Mike Wallace (PIT) WR 7/2
Hines Ward (PIT) WR 13/2
Heath Miller (PIT) TE 13/2
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) QB 8/1
Emmanuel Sanders (PIT) WR 17/2
Isaac Redman (PIT) RB 10/1
Antonio Brown (PIT) WR 14/1
Mewelde Moore (PIT) RB 15/1
Any Other Pittsburgh Player 15/2
No Pittsburgh TD Scored In The Game10/1
SUPER BOWL XLV – Player to score the first Green Bay TD in the game
Greg Jennings (GB) WR 7/2
James Starks (GB) RB 5/1
John Kuhn (GB) FB 13/2
Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB 7/1
James Jones (GB) WR 7/1
Donald Driver (GB) WR 15/2
Jordy Nelson (GB) WR 15/2
Brandon Jackson (GB) RB 10/1
Andrew Quarless (GB) TE 14/1
Donald Lee (GB) TE 15/1
Any Other Green Bay Player 17/2
No Green Bay TD Scored In The Game12/1
SUPER BOWL XLV – Player to record the first Pittsburgh reception in the game?
Mike Wallace (PIT) WR 7/2
Hines Ward (PIT) WR 7/2
Heath Miller (PIT) TE 7/2
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) RB 9/2
Emmanuel Sanders (PIT) WR 5/1
Antonio Brown (PIT) WR 13/2
Any Other Pittsburgh Player 3/1
SUPER BOWL XLV – Player to record the first Green Bay reception in the game?
Greg Jennings (GB) WR 7/2
Donald Driver (GB) WR 4/1
James Starks (GB) RB 5/1
Brandon Jackson (GB) RB 6/1
John Kuhn (GB) FB 6/1
James Jones (GB) WR 6/1
Jordy Nelson (GB) WR 13/2
Andrew Quarless (GB) TE 10/1
Donald Lee (GB) TE 15/1
Any Other Green Bay Player 15/2
HISTORICAL MATCHUPS
HISTORICAL MATCHUP – Total Passing Yards, which will be higher?
Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl XLV -29½ (-110)
Brett Favre Super Bowl XXXI (246 Passing Yards) +29½ (-120)
HISTORICAL MATCHUP – Total TD Passes, which will be higher?
Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl XLV +125
Brett Favre Super Bowl XXXI (2 TD Passes) -155
HISTORICAL MATCHUP – Completion Percentage, which will be higher?
Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl XLV -11.5% +105
Brett Favre Super Bowl (51.8%) +11.5% -135
HISTORICAL MATCHUP – Total Passing yards, which will be higher?
Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLV -115.5 Yards
Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XL (123 Passing Yards) +115.5 Yards
HISTORICAL MATCHUP – Total Passing yards, which will be higher?
Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLV ` +15½ (-115)
Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLIII (256 Passing Yards) -15½ (-115)
CROSS SPORT PROPS
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – Blake Griffin (LAC) Total Rebounds against Miami Heat vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Total Points
Blake Griffin Rebounds vs. Miami Heat +7½ (-115)
Pittburgh Steelers Total Points -7½ (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – Rajon Ronds (BOS) Total Points + Assists against Orlando Magic vs. Green Bay Packers Total Points
Rajon Rondo Points + Assists vs. Orlando Magic Pick (-115)
Green Bay Packers Total Points Pick (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – Total Field Goals made in the Super Bowl vs Washington Capitals Goals against Pittsburgh Penguins
Field Goals made in Super Bowl Pick (-135)
Washington Capitals goals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Pick (+105)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – Total Punts made in the Super Bowl vs 3 Point Shots made in Heat -Clippers Game
Total Punts in the Super Bowl +3 (-115)
3 Point Shots made in the Miami Heat vs. LA Clippers game -3 (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – Which Game will have the larger Winning Margin?
Super Bowl XLV Pick (-115)
Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics Pick (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – LeBron James 1st half points against Clippers vs. Green Bay Packers 1st Half Points
LeBron James 1st Half Points vs. LA Clippers Pick (-115)
Green Bay Packers 1st Half Points Pick (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – Total TD’s in Super Bowl vs. Total Goals in Penguins/Capitals game (2/6/11)
Super Bowl TD’s +½ (-115)
Goals in Capitals/Penguins game (2/6/11) -½ (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl and Milwaukee Brewers win on MLB Opening Day (3/31/11)?
Yes +225
No -285
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl, Pittsburgh Penguins beat Washington Capitals (2/6/11) and Pittsburgh Pirates win on MLB Opening Day (4/1/11)?
Yes +1100
No -2000
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – What will be higher on February 6th 2011?
Aaron Rodgers Completion % -6 (-125)
Dwight Howard Free Throw % +6 (-105)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – What will be higher on February 6th 2011?
Aaron Rodgers Completions +1 (-105)
Dwayne Wade Points -1 (-125)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – What will be higher on February 6th 2011?
James Harrison Tackles & Assists Pick (-115)
Lebron James Assists Pick (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – What will be higher on February 6th 2011?
Emmanuel Sanders Receptions Pick (-115)
Rajon Rondo Steals Pick (-115)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – What will be higher on February 6th 2011?
Ben Roethlisberger Completions Pick (-130)
Paul Pierce Points Pick (EVEN)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – What will be higher on February 6th 2011?
Andrew Quarless Receiving Yards Pick (EVEN)
Jared Sullinger (Ohio State) Points Pick (-130)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – What will be higher on February 6th 2011?
Heath Miller Receptions +½ (-130)
Ben Hansbrough (Notre Dame) Assists-½ (EVEN)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – What will be higher on February 6th 2011?
Ben Roethlisberger TD Passes Pick (EVEN)
Sidney Crosby Points Pick (-130)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – What will be higher on February 6th 2011?
Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Pick (-150)
Alex Ovechkin Points Pick (+120)
SUPER BOWL XLV CROSS SPORT PROPS – What will be higher on February 6th 2011?
Brandon Jackson Rushing & Receiving Yards Pick (-130)
Carey Price Saves Pick (EVEN)
Super Bowl Prop Traps
Mr. East
I want to examine what I call a "trap" prop. here is the prop,and then I'll explain why it is a trap, and where the value is.
Will each team kick a field goal of 33 yards or more YES or NO? Yes is +155 and no is -175.
Looking back there have been 44 Superbowls played to date. The 44 have shown that only 10 times has their been a FG of 33 yards by both teams. That means 10 of 44 = 22.7% of the time, or 1 in every 4.4 Superbowls. So Mr. bettor says wow, what a find, I can get a 4.4-1 situation at 1.75-1 odds, so I'll play NO on this one.
Here is why it is a mistake. The first 10 Superbowls, the goal posts were on the goalline! That means that a 33 yard FG was kicked from the 33 yardline, which today would be a 43 yard FG!!! The kickers also weren't as accurate back then, and teams that got t the 30 yardline would go for it on 4th down at a much higher frequency, just as they do today from the 40 yard line. So consequently, nt a single time in the first 10 Superbowls did this prop have both teams kicking a 33 yard FG. The fact is their were only 4 made in the entire 10 games from 33+, and the only 2 Superbowls without a FG occured in Superbowl 7 and 9.
The first 22 Superbowls saw 14 of the 50 made FG's come from 33+ yards out. Contrast that to modern day NFL, and 29 of the 57 made FG's in the last 22 years or 50.9%! Huge difference.
Kickers get better and more accurate as the years go by. Also, this one is being played indoors no wind, no weather, with 2 top defenses that can get a few more stops, leading to perhaps an extra attempt or 2.
While there has been just 10 games with both sides kicking a 33+ yard FG, just 2 occured in the first 22 years! Fast forward and history shows in the last 9 years 4 times both teams have kicked 33+ FG's. So at +155 odds you would of made +620 and lost -500 in the 9 years. Not enough to get crazy about, but enough to show the books have a sucker line out there drawing action in on the wrong side, and inflating it as well!
Bob Balfe
Coin Toss
Tails -105
I just flipped a coin and it was heads.
Number of times they will show Jerry Jones on TV
Over 2.5 -135
This stadium is 20 years ahead of its time and they should mention him a lot.
?
How many times will Fox mention Brett Favre
Over 2.5 -170
Every time Rodgers is on the field they might make a comparison.
Will any player do a Lambeau Leap
No -120
The stadium is not really designed for it.
Team to receive kickoff
Packers -130
If Steelers win I think they will play defense. If Packers win they would probably want Rodgers on the field first.
What will Steelers do first score or punt
Punt -160
2 weeks layoff maybe a little rust to start
What will Green Bay do first score or punt
Punt -150
2 weeks layoff maybe a little rust to start
Longest touchdown of game Over or Under 43.5 yards
Under -115
Both defenses do not allow the big play
Shortest Successful FG in Game Over or Under 25.5 yards
Under 25.5 -110
In the Super Bowl you take points when you can get them.
Will a field goal attempt in the Game be missed
Yes +120
Its in a dome with 100,000 people on a surface these kickers are not used too. Throw in some nerves and we might see a miss.
Will either team successfully convert a 4th down
Yes -220
Late in the 4th quarter the team who is trailing will go for it.
Total number of penalties in the game
Over 10.5 -145
Nerves and being on the big stage will bring on some dumb penalties
Total rushing yards James Stark
Under 50.5 -105
Pitt only gives up about 62 per game.
Total receiving yards Andrew Quarless
Over 17.5 -115
The Packers will want to get the young rookie going early. With all of the playmakers on that side of the ball Quarless will be open a lot.
Total receptions Andrew Quarless
Over 1.5 -115
The Packers will want to get the young rookie going early. With all of the playmakers on that side of the ball Quarless will be open a lot.
First Green Bay reception in the game
Andrew Quarless 10/1
The Packers will want to get the young rookie going early. With all of the playmakers on that side of the ball Quarless will be open a lot.
Super Bowl Props
By: BoDog
It's been 25 years since William "The Refrigerator" Perry ran for a touchdown at Super Bowl XX. Little did we know that Perry would start a football betting revolution. Proposition bets weren't widely talked about until that fateful day in 1986 when Caesar's Palace posted 20-1 odds that Perry would score a TD for the Chicago Bears against the New England Patriots. Perry was a 380-pound defensive tackle who gained national attention for both his size and his versatility – he scored three TDs during the regular season operating as a fullback in short-yardage situations. Sure enough, the prop bet itself made headlines, and eager fans ponied up in support of Perry. His odds for scoring were down to 3-1 by kickoff.
The books took a bath that day. But they also realized they had something special on their hands. This year, roughly half of the Super Bowl betting action is expected to come in for props. Bodog Sports has over 320 player and team props on the board for Sunday's big game. And the sharps couldn't be happier. Each prop is an opportunity to find some value, maybe even to outsmart the oddsmakers.
The big pile of Super Bowl props can be divided into two camps: those that have to do with the football game itself, and those that don't. It's the second pile where you can find the best bargains. The farther a prop gets away from a bookmaker's area of expertise, the more likely it is the book will put up a soft line. The most popular props these days have nothing at all to do with football. At the top of the list:
How long will it take Christina Aguilera to sing the National Anthem?
(Total: 1 minute, 54 seconds OVER: –175 UNDER: +135)
This prop has been a goldmine for sharps. Jordin Sparks, Jennifer Hudson and Carrie Underwood all went OVER the posted total; Billy Joel was the last one to go UNDER. There's a logical reason for this. The odds are set by looking at previous performances of The Star-Spangled Banner from the singer in question. However, since the Super Bowl is arguably the biggest stage in all of American culture, it's natural for the singer to put extra emphasis on the anthem by stretching out the last few words. That's if they have the pipes. Joel didn't; Underwood went a couple of seconds OVER, while Sparks and Hudson are still holding that last note to this day.
None of this is any secret to the oddsmakers. There are still plenty of people betting on the UNDER who haven't thought about how long Aguilera can hold a note – which is a long, long time. And the betting line can always move to balance out the action. Sharps are on the lookout for this, just in case there's an opportunity to middle the prop. Speaking of Aguilera, this year Bodog Sports has expanded the Anthem Props list to four, including how long she can hold the word brave at the end. The total is six seconds with OVER priced at –140 as we go to press.
The more entertainment the NFL crams into the Super Bowl experience, the more entertainment-based Super Bowl props there will be. But there's also a football game to be played. Some sharps will only look at the props that have to do with the game itself; for them, this is the grown-up table where serious football handicappers do their work. The lines are also tighter, but not nearly as tight as the standard pointspread. A savvy handicapper will already have a method for analyzing player performance – the spread of advanced football stats on the Web has made this part of the job easier and more reliable every year. Let's highlight one of the most popular Super Bowl props in the non-entertainment category:
Total Passing Yards – Ben Roethlisberger
(Total: 240.5 yards OVER: –125 UNDER: –105)
If you look at Roethlisberger's raw numbers from this year, he topped 240 yards in 10 of his 12 regular-season starts, but neither of his two playoff games. Congratulations: You already know more about the situation than many bettors who will blindly take either side of this prop, and more likely the OVER, since more people like offense and tend to bet on what they like. But you can make your bet even sharper by doing a deeper analysis. A good place to start would be with the Green Bay defense, which ranked first in the league in efficiency against the pass according to Football Outsiders. An informed bet is a sharp bet.
Possible Super Bowl MVP Long Shots
By: BoDog
As one would expect, the two starting quarterbacks for Sunday’s Super Bowl XLV between Green Bay and Pittsburgh are the two heavy MVP favorites: the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers at 3/2 (and he has gotten so much action his odds have dropped from 7/2) and the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger at 7/2.
Then you have the two starting running backs among the favorites as well, with Green Bay’s James Starks at 16/1 and Pittsburgh’s Rashard Mendenhall at 15/2. Don’t forget each team’s No. 1 receivers: The Packers’ Greg Jennings at 12/1 and the Steelers’ Mike Wallace at 16/1. Those guys should all be favored. After all, a quarterback has won the award 23 times, a running back seven times and a receiver six times. That means all other positions have combined for just eight awards.
But here are a few long-shot bets (25/1 or higher) who might just steal the award away from one of the big names:
James Jones, Packers WR (30/1): Jones has emerged as a solid big-play threat when teams focus on Jennings. Jones tends to be all or nothing, as he had a total of two catches for 19 yards in the playoff wins over the Eagles and Bears. But against Atlanta he had four catches for 74 yards and a touchdown. Overall he has found the end zone four times in Green Bay’s past six games. If the Steelers focus on shutting Jennings down, Jones and not Donald Driver might benefit the most.
Tramon Williams, Packers CB (25/1): Charles Woodson gets all the publicity but Williams has been this team’s best cornerback of late. He had six picks in the regular season and has three to lead all players in the postseason, including one brought back for a touchdown against the Falcons.
James Harrison, Steelers LB (25/1): Harrison perhaps should have been the Super Bowl MVP two years ago for that epic interception returned for a TD 100 yards at the end of the first half against the Cardinals. Harrison remains a terror off the edge with 10.5 sacks and six forced fumbles. Plus he had two picks this year. Green Bay’s offensive line is a bit questionable and Harrison could have a huge game.
Heath Miller, Steelers TE (30/1): The Packers are strong at cornerback so they might be able to take the outside of the field away from Mike Wallace, Hines Ward, Antonio Brown, etc. That could open the middle for Miller, who has seven catches for 77 yards and a touchdown in these playoffs. And for what it’s worth, in last year’s shootout win over Green Bay, Miller had seven catches for 118 yards.