Wunderdog
Super Bowl XLIII Prop Picks
FIRST QUARTER UNDER 9.5 (+105)
During the 2008 regular season, an average of 8.9 points per game where scored. In the history of the Super Bowl, the average is 8.5 points. And, eight of the last nine Super Bowls have seen less than 10 points scored in the first quarter, including last year when 3 points where scored in the first quarter. The magnitude of this game seems to grow year by year, and with what's at stake, the teams nearly always go through a feeling out process early. They are trying to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent, and they are trying avoid big mistakes. So the play calling, and the play on the field, are conservative. The question here, as it was last year, is whether we can count on a low-scoring start when we have a game with a fairly high total. Last year's total was set higher than this one, and as stated, 3 points were scored. Looking back to Super Bowl games with totals of 47 or higher, 11 of the 17 have played to first quarter totals of ten points or less. That's
65%. Pittsburgh games this year averaged 6.3 first quarter points while Arizona's averaged 7.8 per game. So, we have history on our side, and the numbers for these two particular teams back us up. Take the UNDER here.
OVERTIME = NO (-1100)
I know most people don't like laying 11 to win 1. And if you are one of the people who can't bear to do it, then lay off this. But for those of you that are simply seeking value, then read on because this bet is laden with value. The chances of a game reaching overtime are really simple to figure out. All we need to do is look at the past. As long as we have a large enough sample, and rules haven't changed in some signifcant way, then we can be fairly certain from a statistical standpoint that the best predictor of the future will be the past. This is the case here as NFL rules have not changd in a way that would affect the chance of a game going to overtime. I have done the math. This season, we had 15 overtime games out of 256 regular season games. That equates to a 5.9% chance. I have also looked at past seasons and guess what? The long-term average tells us that the chance of an overtime game is precisely 5.9%. So we have a stat here that we can rely on. Well, what kind of moneyline does this equate to? At a 5.9% chance, the true and fair odds on this bet would be +1595 for "yes" and -1595 for "no". Here's where the value lies. The sportsbooks know that the public loves to risk a little to win a lot and so they shade the odds here. Instead of offering +1595 for "yes," they offer a horrible +650 (sportsbook.com). And on the flipside, we can grab the "no" at a huge relative value of -1100 (again at sportsbook.com). The true and fair chance of an event occurring at odds of -1100 is 84.2%. So, we are getting odds as if the chance of winning is 84% when in fact we know the chance of winning is really 94%! That my friends is called a massive overlay and I'm on it.
Wild Bill
Arizona +6 1/2 (5 units)
Over 47 Steelers-Arizona (5 units)
7 pt teaser: Arizona +13 1/2 & over 40 (2 units)
Masterbets
Pick Selection: Bet on total points scored by Arizona (OVER 20), Team to score last (Steelers -135), and Defensive/Special Teams TD (+155)
Arizona to score more than 20 points in the game - current line on this play is -110
The Team to score last in the game - Bet on the STEELERS (current line is -135)
A Defensive or Special Teams TD in the game by either team (YES at the current line of +155)
Bettorsworld
3* Steelers -6.5 over Cardinals
We went in to Championship weekend with a shot at picking up a couple of units on the year for our key releases. Unfortunately, we dropped both title games, both of which we would play all over again presented with the exact same scenarios. In other words, we really liked both plays. So we end the year down a couple of units and we move on. Remember, this is a marathon, not a sprint.
For the Super Bowl, we're going to make a small play on the logical side. We're not going to get into a bunch of yards per points numbers and so on, to make our case here. We're simply gong to make it a short, common sense argument. You again have to remember the long term approach here. You're going to make a play on this game based on situations and analysis that have proven successful over the long run. As a result, you may win or loss this particular game, but over a career of betting sports, you're more likely to win more of these than you'll lose. Don't get caught up in the "right now" and certainly don't go crazy betting ten times your normal amount just because it's the Super Bowl. That's just plain moronic.
Having said that, it's hard not to back the better team here. It should be obvious to anyone who's watched a lick of football all year who the better team is from top to bottom here, and that's the Steelers. Sure, the Cards have made it this far and deserve all the credit in the world. Likewise, they could even win this game. Football games take on a life of their own after the opening kick off. A few breaks going their way, an early lead taking the Steelers off their game plan and a momentum run like we see over and over again in football games in general, and we could have an upset.
But we can't make a selection based on what if's. What if the Cards get an early lead. What if Big Ben has a terrible game. What if, what if, what if. Anything can happen but you have to base your selection on the facts. You have to take into account what both teams have done lately, as well as over the course of the entire season. If you do that, you can only arrive at one conclusion. The Steelers will be world champs.
Where would you like to start. Coaching? Ok, let's call it even. Though I think the edge goes to the Steelers here. Defense? Not even close. The Cards hardly have a playoff worthy defense, never mind championship. Offense? Ok, the Cards have been a fantastic offensive team all year long and you'd have to give them a slight nod offensively. But it's slight folks. The Steelers offense is very underrated due to the fact that the defense takes center stage. The Steelers have plenty of weapons offensively. Rothlisberger is perhaps one of the best QB's in the entire NFL when he gets out of the pocket. The guy can make things happen. Hines Ward, even at less than 100% commands attention. Heath Miller, Willie Parker. Etc. This is an offense that can be just as lethal as the Cards and more importantly, they are more complete. They have the better offensive line, the better backs, they can move the ball thru the air or on the ground and should have no trouble putting together long drives that keep Warner and company off the field.
Much has been made about the Cards offense and in particular, Larry Fitzgerald. Rightly so. The guy is amazing. He's a Plaxico Burress type receiver, in that, if you get the ball anywhere close to him, he'll make the play. He's the type of receiver that makes QB's look great. Much has also been made of Kurt Warners ability to pick up the blitz and capitalize. Again, rightly so. Teams blitz the Cards which sets up Fitzgerald in man to man coverage which in turn can be a disaster.
But things may be a little different against the Steelers. Enter Dick Lebeau, the Steelers defensive coordinator. The defense he created, back in the 80's, was a direct result of attempting to stop, or slow down, the emerging West Coast offenses, which spread the field out and get rid of the ball quickly. Rather than play man to man when they blitz, the Steelers "Zone Blitz". Meaning they play zone behind the blitz. In other words, this defense was set up to stop QB-Receiver tandems like Warner to Fitzgerald. The defensive scheme is also what makes a guy like Troy Polamalu great. He's all over the field. QB's can't keep track of him. They throw into what they think is man to man coverage and then bam, where did he come from as he picks off the pass and takes it in for 6.
The Cards are a great story and plenty capable of a shocker. But don't count on it. Talent generally wins out in this game, especially when the gap is as large as it is here. It's always tempting to take a live dog. Especially for this handicapper, who bets probably 90% underdogs in all sports. But there's only one way to look here.
Lastly, don't get caught up with the point spread. In the NFL in general, if you can pick the straight up winner of a game, you'll also cover 80% of the time or so. Of course, it's not always easy to just pick the straight up winner. But that figure is magnified in Super Bowls. In other words, if you managed to pick the straight up winner of every Super Bowl, you would have covered most of them. Don't have time to get the exact figure, but it's most Super Bowls. Just for the sake of this article, we went back 12 years and see that you'd be 10-2 against the spread in that time had you just picked the straight up winner. (a couple of pushes if you didn't get the right number). Point being, don't bet the Cards if you think they'll lose, but will "hang". Only bet the Cards if you're confident they will win outright.
Our play for Super Bowl XLIII is the Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 over the Arizona Cardinals. We'll call it a 3* Key Release.
We also lean towards the Over 46.5 here as well. Again, the Steelers offense is underrated. They can put points on the board. The Cardinals are going to get their points, but the Steelers will make more plays......i.e. more points. A score of 35-21 or so wouldn't be a surprise.
Props? There's a Gazillion props. Just about impossible to analyze them all. There is one that stood out earlier in the week. Will their be a defensive or a Special teams TD scored. The price earlier this week was +170 and is now +145. But shop around. It seems likely that there will be.
Strike Point Sports Super Bowl Prop
Who will have more receptions, Limas Sweed or Jerheme Urban? Take Urban -160.
Jerheme Urban has been a very reliable receiver for the Cardinals this season. And with Boldin's hamstring still unknown of how healthy it is, as well as the multiple receiver sets Arizona uses, there is a great chance he is on the field a lot more than Sweed, and that presents him more opportunities for balls his way. Go with Urban in this prop.
Vegas Sports Informer
Take ‘Under’ 23.5 – First Half – Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
Arizona will probably be a little nervous and the Steelers defense will want to make some big plays early and avoid giving up the big plays as Arizona did against the Eagles.
Robert Ferringo. Super Bowl Prop
Result of the first coaching challenge will be: Call Overturned (+105)
Think about this: in such a big game neither coach is going to be frivolous with their timeouts, or their challenges. If Mike Tomlin or Ken Whisenhunt reaches for that red flag on Sunday you know that they are doing so because someone is positive about a call. Coaches are always a bit more conservative in The Big Game and if there is no coaching challenges than this is a No Action. Like I said, to risk a timeout a coach is going to be extra sure that a play will be reversed so I love the value here.
Gina
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. (4) Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals with one of the league’s top offenses have been the underdog in each of their three playoff games, scoring 30 or more points and beating tough teams. However, the Steelers are an incredibly tough team and defensive coach Dick LeBeau will have his Steel Curtain ready to immobilize Arizona's high-scoring offense. Look for the Steelers to focus with a relentless onslaught against Quarterback Kurt Warner, disturbing his passing game. Go with Pittsburgh to grab its sixth world championship.
Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Razor Sharp Sports
Super Bowl Props
1. Will either team have a 300 yard passer in the game? - YES +200. Kurt Warner has put up 7 - 300 yard games this season. Ben Roethlisberger has also done it 3 times during the regular season. Warner also holds the record for most passing yards in a Super Bowl game. He also is #2 on that list. This is a value play. You are getting 2/1 on your money and if the Cardinals fall behind early, you know they will have to throw alot.
2. This is a combo bet. If you can find somewhere to parlay these two, it would be the best. Will Willie Parker score a TD in the game - YES -125 & Will the Steelers get a rushing TD in the game? YES -280. By combining these two in a parlay you will get better than even money and If Willie Parker scores, it will be more than likely on the ground. Parker is finally healthy and has been running well here at the end of the season.
3. Total Number of Punts by Both Teams - OVER 9½ +105. The Steelers #1 defense has caused teams to punt all season long and especially in the playoffs. In their 2 playoff games they had 11 total in the Charger match-up and 14 total versus the Ravens.
Sports Insights
Superbowl XLIII
Contrarian Sports Investing
SportsInsights.com (“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights' quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.”
The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year's Superbowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58%
Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement
SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator.
For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7.
This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Intangibles and Other Contrarian Angles
In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets.
For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events.
Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”
During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points.
Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Quick Analysis of Recent Superbowl Scores
SportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.
We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:
• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD.
Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Overview
SportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com's philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs' exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events, please visit www.SportsInsights.com.
Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace” point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We'll see in a few days.
Games to Watch - Playoff Editions (1-2 = 33.3%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Power Sweep
GAME OVERVIEW - Coming into the season the Steelers had one of the toughest schedules based on the record of their 2007 foes (.598). The last team to play twelve .500+ teams went 4-12 & only 2 of 16 teams that played eleven .500+ teams had winning records. They are now playing in an NFL record 7th franchise SB & their 2nd in 5 years. Since moving to Arizona from St Louis in 1988 the Cardinals had just one other winning season finishing 9-7 in 1998. ARZ came into 2008 widely viewed as the 2nd best team in the NFC West & quite a few eyebrows were raised when it was announced that Warner won the #1 QB job over Matt Leinart. The Cardinals took advantage of a very weak division & capitalized on the slew of injuries to SEA. After not hosting an NFL playoff game since 1975 the Cardinals are off to their first SB in franchise history. ARZ has not won an NFL Championship since 1947 when the Chicago Cardinals beat the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cardinals have the worst regular season record for a Super Bowl team since the 1980 LA Rams lost to the Steelers 31-19 in SB XIV. The big media story will be the fact that Ken Whisenhunt was the OC for the Steelers victory in Super Bowl XL. Whisenhunt & OL Coach Russ Grimm both interviewed for the HC spot when Bill Cowher stepped down. Grimm was offered the job but the Rooney family retracted it & they opted for Mike Tomlin who had 1 year of experience as a DC for the Vikings. Whisenhunt has 8 former Steelers assistants on his staff & noted that "this is something of a dream scenario for me & many of the coaches on our staff." Kurt Warner will earn serious consideration for the Hall of Fame with a win here while Roethlisberger will cement his status as one of the top 3 QB's in the NFL (Tom Brady & Peyton Manning just ahead of him) despite having one more ring than Manning. Arizona has 5 Pro Bowlers vs Pittsburgh's 3. SB dogs are 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS.
PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE - The Steelers program is very consistent with an established identity & a way of doing things which allows them to retain core players for a long time. Unlike Super Bowl XL the Steelers have a very clear cut edge here thanks to their program. PIT has 26 players on this team who were on the roster for Super Bowl XL with 3 currently on the IR. An astounding 10 of 11 starters on defense played in the game with 5 starters on offense that were starters in SB XL. QB Roethlisberger, RB Parker, WR Ward, TE Miller were all starters for SB XL with Ward being named the MVP. ARZ does have a proven winner in Kurt Warner who is 1-1 SU & ATS in the Super Bowl. Pro Bowler Sean Morey was with the Steelers for SB XL & is a vital member of the Cardinals special teams unit. Edgerrin James has 8 games (3-5 SU & ATS) experience with the Colts prior to 2008 in the playoffs including Indy's 21-18 loss in the Conf Semi-finals in 2005 to PIT. While ARZ does have 12 coaches with playoff experience the edge is very clear when it comes down to who is on the field. LARGE EDGE: STEELERS
RECORD VS THE SPREAD - There is an adage in the NFL that it's not who you play it's when you play them & the Cardinals are a great example. At home the Cardinals went 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS winning by a 30-23 margin. On the road they struggled with 6 trips to the East Coast & went 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS losing by an avg score of 29-24. They have tallied 4 straight covers since a pair of embarrassing losses to MIN & NE. ARZ has taken advantage of a very weak NFC West (5-1 ATS) & has beaten an ATL team with a young QB, a CAR team that came in overconfident & a PHI team that couldn't overcome an 18 pt deficit in the 1H. PIT took the challenge of a very tough schedule head on & survived going 7-3 SU (4-6 ATS) to start the season. They finished 7-1 SU & ATS with a 25-14 avg score the rest of the season. PIT went 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS on the road TY with a 20-14 avg score. PIT's 2 losses were to PHI & TEN both solid playoff teams. PIT has won 9 games by 7 or more points while only 2 of ARZ 7 losses were by 7 or less. ARZ went 2-6 SU & 2-5-1 ATS vs foes with a winning record losing by a 36-24 avg score prior to their 3-0 ATS run with a 32-21 winning margin. PIT went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS vs foes with a winning record before Thanksgiving with an 18-15 avg deficit. PIT then went 5-1 SU & ATS the rest of the way with a 23-14 avg score. Both teams are peaking at the right time & PIT's edge is mitigated some by the fact that teams are 1-6 ATS if they won a Super Bowl in the L3Y due to overconfidence & an inflated line. SLIGHT EDGE: STEELERS
TURF/SITE - This will be the 4th time Raymond James Stadium hosts a Super Bowl with the last one being SB XXXV in 2001. RJ Stadium seats 70,500 & was voted 2nd best playing surface for 2008 by players. Both teams will be allotted 17.5% of the tickets. One third goes to season ticket holders in a lottery system, one third to suite owners & the rest to the players, coaches & staff. The team hosting the event gets 5% of the tickets, 30% is shared by the other 30 NFL teams with the league retaining 30% for sponsors & special promotions. The avg ticket price for SB XLII was $4,332. The NFL spares no expense to ensure a quality playing surface & they import a grass field called Princess 77 for the game costing over $500,000 to install. Both teams are grass teams but Steeler fans travel like college fans & there will be quite a few Terrible Towels in the stands. SLIGHT EDGE: STEELERS
STEELERS #22 OFFENSE VS CARDINALS #19 DEFENSE - Part of the Steelers legacy is that the offense has been centered around the power run game & the passing game is 2nd. Under Mike Tomlin & OC Bruce Arians that doesn't apply as the Steelers are relying more on Roethlisberger's arm & his tenacity in keeping plays alive with his mobility & size. PIT is using more 3 WR sets letting RB Parker and Moore take advantage of the spread out defense. Despite missing 5 games due to knee & shoulder injuries Parker has led the Steelers in rushing for 4 straight years. He has 418 yds (3.9) in 6 post season games. #2 RB Mewelde Moore is a very capable 3rd Dn RB that can start for short periods & had 908 yds from scrimmage (5.0) during the reg ssn. He is also a key player on special teams. Both Parker & Moore are speed/slash RB's & the team brought in Gary Russell to be the short yardage RB. Both Moore & Russell have seen their time cut in the playoffs as Parker is finally healthy. Hines Ward led the team with 81 rec's (12.9) & he also leads the franchise with 78 post season catches. He is one of the most respected blocking WR's in the NFL & while he sprained his right knee vs BAL he is expected to play here. PIT does have depth here as Santonio Holmes is the big play threat with 59 rec (15.5) with TE Heath Miller being one of the more underrated TE's in the NFL. Miller is adept at blocking & is a viable rec weapon. Nate Washington (46 rec, 14.8) is the #4 WR. While Limas Sweed made a pair of big plays vs BAL he is still adjusting to the pro game & Arians is in no hurry to put him on the field. Matt Spaeth is the power blocking TE & has helped shore up the OL. In the first 7 games Roethlisberger was sacked once every 8 pass att's but the line adjusted to the loss of LG Simmons & LT Smith and it was cut down to once every 13 att's. Roethlisberger isn't a "fantasy QB" but over the L8 games he has avg'd 218 ypg (56%) with a 9-4 ratio. ARZ DC Pendergast runs a scheme driven hybrid 3-4/4-3 that adjusts to its foe week by week to exploit opposing teams weaknesses. Much like IND the Cardinals defense is at its best when operating ahead which allows its undersized DL (6'3" 285) to go after the passer & protect itself vs the run. Darnell Dockett is the best player on the DL & is inside in a 4-3 but shifts to DE in a 3-4. ARZ may find itself without DE Travis LaBoy (torn bicep) which could force the team into more 3-4's. In its L4 games ARZ has allowed 80 ypg (3.8) vs 112 (4.0) the rest of the year. Pendergast likes to bring pressure from all angles & DE/OLB Berry leads the team with 7 sacks incl playoffs. OLB Karlos Dansby is very active & makes things happen but he can disappear if he doesn't get off to a fast start. ARZ gets to the QB once every 17 pass att's which means teams have had time to air it out. ARZ has given up 225 ypg passing (62%) with a 42-21 ratio including playoffs which incl a 1-5 ratio vs CAR. ARZ has a talented secondary with Rodgers-Cromartie being the #1 CB which allowed Antrel Rolle to shift to FS full-time. SS Adrian Wilson is a top 5 safety in the NFL & one of the best playmakers on the team. ARZ is very TO dependant going 1-7 SU/1-6-1 ATS with -TO's (-19 TO's) but 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS with + TO's (+20 TO's). ARZ will have to be careful about putting too much pressure on Roethlisberger as he's an excellent "playground" QB & his mobility is an asset. Neither team has a clear edge here as both run high risk/high reward schemes & while a slow start wouldn't be a surprise there should be some big plays. EDGE: NONE
CARDINALS #4 OFFENSE VS STEELERS #1 DEFENSE - The key to Super Bowl XLIII will be if the Steelers can overcome the Cardinals impressive array of weapons with their physical nature. Combined with the best set of WR's in the NFL (3 WR's w/1,000 yds) & an OL that has played all 19 games together, Warner has resurrected himself in 2008. He is just the 2nd QB to lead 2 separate teams to a Super Bowl (Craig Morton DAL SB V & DEN SB XII) finishing with the 3rd best QBR in the NFL based on being 3rd in att's and 2nd in comp, comp % & passing yards. His experience has really shined in 2008 as he's been sacked 29 times or once every 24 pass att's!!! He has been rattled by defenses that consistently bring pressure & knock his WR's off their routes (i.e. NYJ, NYG, PHI Gm 1, MIN & NE). His prime target in the passing game is Larry Fitzgerald who has seized the mantle of best WR in the NFL. Fitzgerald broke Jerry Rice's record for rec yds in a single post season (419) & was 2nd in the NFL with 1,431 yds (14.9) & tied for 1st with 12 TD's. Boldin has missed 5 games with a strained left hamstring but is a better speed threat than Fitzgerald. Breaston has developed into a standout slot WR & will likely be the #2 if Boldin is traded in the offseason. ARZ is very thin at TE due to injuries as they IR'd Stephen Spach before the PHI game & brought back Jerame Tuman who is a stout blocker but limited as a receiver. ARZ's run game only avg'd 74 ypg (3.5) with 72 rushing FD's in the regular season. RB James was benched after it was clear he lost a gear & the team tried to accelerate the development of Tim Hightower who OC Haley considers is a young Marion Barber. Minus the STL road game he only gained 209 yds (2.4) but was effective as a short yardage/goal line RB. In James' L4 games he has avg'd 76 ypg (4.6) vs 35 ypg (3.5). While ARZ has reinforced balance in its offense the L4 games have been vs the #18, #25, #20 & #6 rush def's & they figure to have a much tougher time vs PIT's #2 rush def allowing 3.3 ypc. PIT finished 1st in total defense, net passing, red-zone, def ppg, rush ypg, rush ypc & FD's allowed. While the LB's get most of the glory the DL is the key as they clear the OL & force double teams which allow the LB's to flow to the ball. PIT has only allowed eight 100 yd rushers over the L6Y & finished 2nd in the NFL with 51 reg season sacks. The LB unit combined for 38.5 reg season sacks which is behind only the 2006 Chargers for most by a LB unit in 1 year. James Harrison became the 1st NFL UFA to win Defensive MVP with 16 sacks, 7 FF & finished 2nd with 101 reg ssn tackles not counting his special teams play. LaMarr Woodley became the 1st player to have B2B multi-sack playoff games & Larry Foote & James Farrior are the other starters. Ryan Clark is the glue that holds the PIT secondary together & he frees up Polamalu to cover huge chunks of the field. Ike Taylor & Deshea Townsend are the starting CB's for a secondary that has allowed 184 ypg (56%) with a 15-24 ratio & stout 5.5 ypa TY. LY's SB showed that high powered offenses can be brought down by a brutal front 7. Unlike LY however, ARZ will be very familiar with PIT's zone blitz schemes & prepared for it. PIT can be hit for big plays & ARZ showed they aren't afraid to mix up their gamebook late in the year vs PHI. Both teams will make & give up big plays & the slight edge goes with ARZ due to the depth in the passing game. SLIGHT EDGE: CARDINALS
SPECIAL TEAMS - ARZ has our #31 special teams unit for 2008 & has struggled on coverage & returns. PIT has our #16 special teams unit & while they have issues on their return units they greatly improved their coverage units over LY's. ARZ avg'd just 7.2 on PR's (27th) & 21.7 on KR's (25th) in the regular season & that has carried over into the playoffs where they have just avg'd 4.0 on PR's. Sean Morey earned a spot in the Pro Bowl for his coverage skills but ARZ finished 30th on PR (13.1) & KR (25.0) coverage TY. PIT only avg'd 6.0 on PR's (31st) & 20.3 on KR's (29th) for 2008 but they were outstanding in coverage with just 6.2 on PR's (4th) & 1st in KR with 19.1 allowed. Both teams have had problems with their punters as PIT's Berger was cut due to a hamstring injury & he finished with a 36.4 net avg with 19 of 66 punts inside the 20. Ben Graham only had 20 punts after being picked up mid-season & finished with just a 32 net avg & 7 punts inside the 20 (reg ssn). PIT K Reed finished as our #15 K TY hitting 85.7% TY of FG's. ARZ K Rackers hit 89.3% of his FG's & is our #14 K for 2008. The Steelers get a slight edge here due to their vastly improved coverage units. SLIGHT EDGE: STEELERS
COACHING - Mike Tomlin is a member of the Tony Dungy coaching tree & has indirectly been spliced into the Bill Cowher tree. Tomlin was very wise when he retained future Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau as his DC & kept the team in a 3-4 system. Bruce Arians is the OC & the Steelers are NOT a power running team anymore. They are comfortable spreading the field out & letting RB Parker exploit the edges. Ken Whisenhunt is a pure offshoot of Cowher's tree & the Bidwell family hired him to install the Steelers culture into the team. Whisenhunt has 8 assistants including vaunted OL Coach Russ Grimm that were with Steelers. Whisenhunt was the OC for the Steelers for 3 years & is very familiar with LeBeau's zone blitz schemes & will have Warner well prepared for it. OC Todd Haley cut his teeth as a WR's coach & has done an impressive job of developing the talent here. DC Clancy Pendergast worked under Dennis Green & runs a schematic system that adjusts to its foe week to week. Both teams have top-notch staffs but Arizona gets the nod due to so many having field level knowledge of Steeler players. SLIGHT EDGE: CARDINALS
PAST HISTORY MATCHUP & INTANGIBLES - This will be the 2nd meeting between Tomlin & Whisenhunt as the Cardinals beat the Steelers 21-14 as a 6 pt HD LY. ARZ was without WR Boldin due to injury & Leinart (shoulder) was hurt the previous week vs BAL forcing Whisenhunt to split time with Warner to spark the offense. PIT hit a 43 yd TD to go up 7-0 but in the 3Q with Warner running a no huddle offense ARZ tied it with a 9/70 drive. ARZ fumbled on their 4 but Roethlisberger threw an int into the EZ on 3rd Dn. ARZ returned a punt 73 yds for a TD & on their next drive went 13/82 with a 2 yd TD by RB James. PIT went 9/92 with a 7 yd TD to WR Holmes to pull within 7 but Roethlisberger was int'd on PIT's final drive. ARZ had a 301-282 yd edge as Warner had 132 yds (67%) with a 1-0 ratio in limited duty. Roethlisberger passed for 244 yds (53%) with a 2-2 ratio but was sacked 4 times. Whisenhunt has already announced that this is his "dream scenario" for a Super Bowl game which will give PIT bulletin board material. PIT knows exactly what is coming in terms of the media onslaught & will have their training schedule adjusted to compensate. ARZ is a very young team & while Warner has been here twice the Cardinals could be overwhelmed by the media here. EDGE: NONE
CONCLUSION - The Super Bowl is a great handicapping lesson. It is an isolated game & the bye week affords the media to dissect every aspect of the contest. The best value is during the regular season when Vegas posts numbers on 45 or more CFB games, with NFL sides & totals. Do not fall into the trap of putting your biggest play or anything close to it on the most isolated game in any sport. Our Super Bowl System was revised this year and it is 22-0 on game with OVER 48.5 pts (this year's SB has 49 pts) & this revised system is 32-1-2 97% on games with 21.5 pts or higher!! Don't miss out on this year's winner! Call 1-900-776-7871 for just $30 or get it using your Northcoast Debit Card for only $20! This is a classic matchup of offense vs defense. The question is can PIT's #1 defense slow ARZ's #4 offense. The Steeler's faced only ONE true passing team this season & that was the #3 offense of HOU with 55 points being scored. ARZ's offense has been record setting becoming the FIRST team to score 30+ points in 3 straight games in a single post season. Expect PIT to double WR Fitzgerald on almost every down & Boldin & Breaston to come up big. ARZ has gone 12-3-1 "OVER" this total with the 3 games totaling 46, 44 & 47 points. PIT will also move the ball as they've topped 30+ pts in the L3 games vs non-top10 defenses.
FORECAST: Pittsburgh/Arizona OVER 47 RATING: 2**
LOCK OF THE DAY
Superbowl Lock:
Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Don't be fooled into thinking the Cardinals have a chance at winning this game. Arizona is lucky to be here. Pittsburgh will put so much pressure on old man Kurt Warner he won't know what to do. Warner plays well at times; other times he commits turnover after turnover, interceptions, fumbles, you name it. MARK THIS DOWN: WARNER WILL HAVE A TERRIBLE GAME ON SUNDAY! The Steelers defense is unbelievable! #1 in the NFL, and maybe the best defense, statistically, ever. Arizona is ranked last in the league in rushing. If Arizona can't run and can't pass, how will they win? This game won't be close! Look for some big special teams plays from Santonio Holmes. Look for at least one defensive touchdown by the Steelers defense. Ben Roethlisberger is really playing well. Hines Ward and Holmes will get into the endzone. Willie Parker is the best running back on the field. Pittsburgh is better at just about every position. This is still the same Arizona team that lost 47-7 to New England. The same New England team Pittsburgh manhandled 33-10. This is the same Arizona team that gave up 56 points to the Jets and 35 points to the Vikings. If the Steelers can score 23 on the Ravens defense, how many can they score on the Cardinals defense?! 45?! THE STEELERS ARE A LOCK!!!
LOCK OF THE MONTH
Superbowl Prop Bet
Edgerrin James Under 42.5 yds rushing
Bet the Under on this proposition bet! THERE IS NO WAY EDGERRIN JAMES COVERS THIS NUMBER!!!!!! First of all, James will be facing the #1 defense in the NFL. Nobody runs on Pittsburgh! Second, James doesn't get the ball!! Tim Hightower has earned the starting job. James gets a few carries to start the game, then Arizona will go to Hightower! Hightower is younger and quicker. James has seriously lost a step. He never makes anybody miss. He is easy to tackle and not elusive like he was to start his career. Arizona has the worst rushing offense in the NFL! They are ranked last! Furthermore, what will happen in this game? The Steelers will have a big second half lead; Arizona will be forced to pass. They will not be running the ball. Even if they do, Hightower will get the carries. The Steelers held the Chargers to 15 yards rushing total!! James might not even play in the second half!
Prop bet Over is 42.5 yards -110 at Sportsbook.com
Prop bet Over is 40.5 yards -125 at Bookmaker.com
Prop bet Over is 38.5 yards -150 at World Sports Exchange
Prop bet Over is 41.5 yards -120 at most Vegas sportsbooks
This bet covers FOR SURE!!!!! Like all our Lock Of The Month wagers, this pick is worth 2 Lock wins or 2 Lock losses. It will be a big fat win!!! No doubt!!!
Superbowl Lock
Pittsburgh Steelers -250 moneyline
Our third and final bet is simply the Steelers moneyline -250. Want a free $1000 bucks? Put $2500 on the Steelers moneyline and forget about it. EASY MONEY! The Steelers will dominate this game from the get-go. Unlike the past few Superbowls, this one will be a yawner. It won't be close. Take this moneyline bet and collect!!! This bet is worth 1 Lock win or 2.5 Lock losses. The Steelers are clearly the dominant team here. Arizona doesn't stand a chance. Invest any extra $$$ you have on the moneyline and you will get paid. Steelers are a Lock!
We Cover Spreads
We're heading into this Superbowl Sunday on a 10-2 NFL run! We've spent countless hours capping this game from every possible angle and we are as confident as last year as the veteran members will remember we said don't doubt it at all and take the Giants and the points. We're as confident as a few weeks ago when we told you take Florida to the bank over the Sooners.
It starts up front. O-Lines and the man behind center. Warner is playing as good or better than he has in his career. Stat-wise his season was incredible. The guys that protect him are playing extremely well heading into Sunday. Possibly the most underated O-Line in the league. Roethlisberger is coming off of 2 solid playoff games without turning the ball over and threw a pair of TD's. We have a gripe with his O-Line though. We have to give them a lot of credit in both playoff games they gave up 0 sacks. That's a big statement considering they played the Ravens. But this is a O-Line who has been prone to collapse in big games (5 sacks vs Tenn, 5 vs Dallas,5 vs Giants, 9 vs Eagles). The Cards have 7 sacks in the playoffs this year. This defense is playing as aggressive as they looked earlier in the season in their game vs Dallas. If they can get to Big Ben that can be a major factor in the outcome of this game. It's Jekyll and Hyde wondering which O-Line will show up.
A bigger picture here is Coach Whisenhunt. Here is the guy who molded Big Ben when he was O-Coordinator with the Steelers. He has the upper hand here guys. The teacher always has the edge over the student. Think he doesn't know what blitz schemes may rattle Ben? What coverages he may be the most vulnerable to make a mistake? With his experience working with him and 2 weeks to study film who gets the advantage? After all Ben did throw 15 Int's this season. He has gone two playoff games without a Int. but as a matter of fact Big Ben hasn't gone 3 straight games this season without throwing a pick. Ironically there are several coaches on the Zona staff who have history with Pittsburgh. That's a pretty big advantage for Arizona.
The Steelers defense is the best in the league and defense wins championships but this Cardinals team is firing on all cylinders! They are averaging 31.6ppg in the playoffs! 32 points alone vs. the Eagles #3 defense in the league. The Steelers will not be able to shut down Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston! This is the best QB/WR's tandem they have faced since the Colts. A game they lost,a game where they could shut down Wayne but not Harrison(114 Yards TD) and Manning threw for 3 TD's. They may shut down 1 of the 3 listed above receivers for the Cards but that's it. Someone is going to have a huge break out game. The Eagles who have a great secondary and one of the best D-Coordinator's in the league couldn't stop Fitzgerald. We see this game playing out very simliar to the Colts/Steelers meeting this season.
Brian Westbrook a running back with similar style to Willie Parker was a non-factor as the Cards held him to just 45 yards on the ground and just 2 receptions. The Cards defense is outshined by their offense but they deserve a lot of more credit. They have shut down Westbrook, shut down a great Carolina tandem(Williams,Stewart) to 75 yards, and Michael Turner to just 42 yards!! Those are 4 great running backs we just listed and they only gave up 1 TD vs. all of them. They will shut down Willie Parker Sunday!
With Parker and the running game disabled the offense is relying on Ben and his receivers. We really feel Ben is going to have at least 1 Interception but a good chance for more than that. He is going to be pressured more than any of his last 2 games.Him ,Hines Ward, and Holmes will hook up for some big plays no question, but not enough to cover this spread and possibly not even win this game. This secondary has 8 interceptions in the playoffs vs the best rookie QB in the league Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme, and McNabb. Not a shabby group..Ben is prone to some horrible performances this season and if he isn't getting the protection this can be another one if the Cards D comes out playing like they have this playoffs. This D is going to be revved up and completely ready for the Steelers offense. If they can shut down the run which we think they will and force the Steelers to be one-dimensional the chances of them winning this game outright are good.
Let's really think about it. Who did the Steelers beat to get here? They beat a Chargers team(that barely made the playoffs) without their star running back and Merriman their best defensive player. They also beat an overachieving Ravens team led by a rookie QB. There isn't a real solid quality of wins to get them here in our view. Cardinals won 3 games as dogs to get here when nobody thought they had a chance.
The Cards have as much of a shot to cover as they do to win this game. A 7 point dog playing as well as they are on a neutral field we'll take it. Whether you decide to make a small play on the moneyline is up to you. We definitely are. Last year it was perfect timing for the Giants. This year it really seems it is perfect time for Arizona. Take Arizona+7
Totals 4 U
Penn State @ Michigan State
Penn State (16-5, 5-3 Big 10) pulled off a huge rally Saturday, outscoring Iowa 22-5 in the final six minutes at the Bryce Jordan Center to bank their 16th victory – the most in a season under much-maligned Coach Ed DeChellis (72-96, 24-66 conference in 6th season at State College). This was everybody’s sleeper team to challenge the Big 10 in 2007-2008 before injuries derailed their season but stars 5’11” sophomore G Talor Battle (18.5p, 5.6r, 5.4a), 6’1” senior G Stanley Pringle (14.2p, 3.1r, 3.1a), and Big 10 Player of the Week 6’5” 240 senior F Jamelle Cornley (15.3p, 6.8r) are back and healthy to make a run. Pringle and Battle are each dangerous sharpshooters from behind the arc, combining to make 102 of 232 to lead a crew than converts at a fine 38.9% from three-point range, while Cornley makes up for his lack of height with a bull’s physique to make room to board and specializes in the put-backs that pad his 53.0% shooting mark from the field. The Lions out-rebound opponents 35.1 to 30.6 per game and as raw sophomore starters 6’8” 200 F Jeff Brooks (3.8p, 3.8r) and 6’9” 245 F/C Andrew Jones (5.1p, 5.2r) learn to better use their size, Penn State could become a real force come conference tourney time.6’6” 205 sophomore F David Jackson (4.2p, 3.4r) gets the starts for State against quicker teams and 6’3” senior G Danny Morrissey (20.1p, 2.0r, 2.0a) is DeChellis’s designated 6th man to bring the energy when the offense flags. This isn’t a great team but they don’t make a ton of mistakes with just 10.8 turnovers per game, shot and rebound well, and are being well-coached right now…by a guy the alumni wanted gone three years ago. Can this squad pull off the Super Bowl Sunday upset? They did split with the Spartans last season and rallied from 17 down to pull within 1 of Michigan State with 28 seconds to play back on January 14th before falling 73-78. When the Lions have switched to the 2-3 zone they have had plenty of success against this superior opponent and we expect DeChellis to ride that horse again…only Tom Izzo will be looking for it this time around. Penn State will have better than a full week off to prepare for this game.
Michigan State (16-3, 6-1 Big 10) The Spartans are coming off a critical 78-67 victory over the Buckeys Saturday in Columbus, establishing Tom Izzo’s (319-133, 150-70 conference in 14th season at East Lansing) as the team to beat in the Big 10. Worse for conference opponents, Izzo may have found another weapon in that win. 6’4” sophomore G Durrell Summers (8.9p, 3.4r) only got the start due to some academic issues by his teammates and responded by nailing 6 of 9 three pointers and nearly doubling his career single-game scoring best with 26 points. Michigan State’s offense is generally a 3-gurad system with 6’0” sophomore Kalin Lucas (14.4p, 2.1r, 5.1a) running the point while 6’3” sophomore Chris Allen (9.2p, 2.5r) and 6’2” senior Travis Walton (6.2p, 2.6r, 3.1a) man the wings. This unit shoots the deep ball well when it’s open but certainly doesn’t live or die behind the arc (110 of just 295 attempts) – this unit earns wins on the blocks. Coach Izzo is famous for his “war drills” in which his players don football helmets and shoulder pad and beat the living hell out of each other while batting for rebounds! The result is another dominating edge on the glass again this season with 40.4 boards per game vs. 29.6 for their opponents and starters 6’8” 225 junior F Raymar Morgan (13.5p, 6.6r) and 6’10” 245 senior C Goran Sutton (10.5p, 8.0r) are as aggressive as they come in cleaning the glass on both ends. Foul trouble? Sometimes, but with reserve big men like 6’8” 225 freshman Delvon Roe (5.2p, 4.9r) and 6’8” 235 senior F Marquis Gray (4.4p, 3.9r) ready to tag in, the wrestling match will go on and the Spartans have a dominating edge when the whistle is blown with 457 free throw attempts vs. just 349 to opponents – translating into 16.3 of their 76.1 points per game coming from the stripe. Michigan State plays at Iowa Thursday night.
SELECTION: Back to the question at hand. Can the Lions pull off the upset? They are good enough from downtown to claim a puncher’s chance but – as we have noted before – a major rebounding edge on home boards (28-1 run at the Breslin Center) is a deadly combination. They learned their lesson against Northwestern and we’ll take Michigan State minus the points on Sunday.
THE SPORTS MEMO
Sportsmemo’s Super Bowl Picks
Handicapper Side Total
Tim Trushel-----Pittsburgh -6.5------Under 46.5
Teddy Covers---Arizona +7----------Over 46.5
Fairway Jay-----Pittsburgh -6.5------Over 46.5
Erin Rynning-----Pittsburgh -6.5------Over 46.5
Brent Crow------Arizona +7----------Over 46.5
Rob Veno--------Pittsburgh -6.5-----Over 46.5
Ed Cash --------Arizona +7----------Under 46.5
Marty Otto------Arizona +7----------Under 46.5
Jared Klein-------Arizona +7---------Over 46.5
Donnie Black-----Pittsburgh -6.5-----Under 46.5
Helmut Sports ---Pittsburgh -6.5 ----Under 46.5
For much of the regular season and heading into the playoffs, the Arizona Cardinals were thought by many to be a gimmick – the Texas Tech of the NFL. The game plan was to outscore the opposition by way of the pass and for most of the season, they held true to form. However, en route to the Super Bowl we discovered that while not outstanding, the defense was capable of making plays. Additionally, the ground game proved to be creative enough to move the chains. Make no mistake; success throwing the football is the only way Arizona will emerge victorious but this is a different team than what we saw earlier this season.In looking at Kurt Warner’s numbers, with the exception of a meaningless late season game at New England, he fared well against some of the better pass defenses in the league. In eight games against teams than rank in the upper-half of the NFL in terms of passing yardage defense, Warner averaged 272 ypg with a strong 16-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio. The key for Warner has always been protection and Arizona did a solid job during the campaign allowing 26 sacks and just three in the playoffs. Over the last four years, when Warner was sacked four or more times in a game, his teams were 0-7. Four or more sacks may seem extreme, but the Steelers were No. 2 in the NFL with 51 during the regular season. They recorded four against San Diego and three versus the Ravens in the playoffs.Despite the ruffling of feathers, the long-term result of keeping Edgerrin James on the sideline for a large portion of the regular season certainly paid dividends. When fresh, James’ top four games in terms of carries resulted in Arizona going 4-0 SU and ATS. In three playoff games, he saw the ball no fewer than 16 times per game. This season, when James failed to get at least 10 carries, the Cardinals were 4-6 SU.Defensively, Arizona didn’t get much credit during the regular season and rightfully so as they were 28th in scoring defense. That included six games against San Francisco, Seattle and St. Louis, who ranked 25th, 31st and 22nd respectively in points scored. On the flip side you can make a small case that Arizona’s lack of defensive success was a result of being in control of the NFC West for virtually the entire season. We’ve seen talent on the defensive side for Arizona when it matters with 77.3 ypg allowed on the ground and eight interceptions in three postseason games. In addition, you can rest assure that the Cardinals are aware that the Steelers’ offensive line allowed 54 sacks this season.Still, while Arizona’s defense may be slightly underrated, the defensive gap between both teams is still massive. Pittsburgh played one of the toughest schedules in the league and had no trouble holding its opponents to crumbs. In looking at some of Pittsburgh’s “worst” defensive outings, the stop unit had very little to do with the outcome. When they allowed 31 points at Tennessee, the Titans had an interception return for a touchdown and forced four turnovers. Against Indianapolis, Ben Roethlisberger threw three interceptions, two of which left the Colts with a short field on their way to touchdowns. In the Giants’ 21-14 win, it wasn’t until three minutes to go in the game that New York reached the end zone. Simply put, Pittsburgh’s defense is as good as the Baltimore unit that won Super Bowl XXXV.Meanwhile, another issue for Arizona is Pittsburgh’s balanced offense. With a healthy offensive line down the stretch, we saw quarterback Ben Roethlisberger perform at a higher level. When protected, he has weapons at his disposal with five players recording 40 or more catches. The running game has never been much in the way of explosive, but remains strong and physical enough to move the chains. The season long numbers show the Steelers averaged the fewest amount of offensive yards (311.9) out of this year’s playoff field. They were also just as weak as Arizona in terms of running the ball (3.7 ypc). However, what Pittsburgh lacks in offensive stats, it makes up for in field position and special teams play. The gap in special teams play is especially worthy of note as Pittsburgh ranks No. 1 in kickoff defense (19.1) and fourth in punt defense (6.2). Arizona was one of the league’s worst at 29th and 31st, respectively. Meanwhile, our feeling is that Pittsburgh will have the type of offensive output we saw throughout the season. They’ll move the ball and try to wear down Arizona with long sustained drives. They’ll also be on the lookout for situations in which to utilize their famed down field passing game with Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington.From a coaching perspective, there is plenty of familiarity for Arizona after head coach Ken Whisenhunt served as the Steelers’ offensive coordinator during their Super Bowl run. He and his staff’s knowledge of Pittsburgh’s personnel shouldn’t go unnoticed. In the 2007 matchup between these two teams, Whisenhunt’s Cardinals pressured Roethlisberger into throwing two interceptions while sacking him four times en route to a 21-14 victory.It’s easy to go back and say last’s year 12-point spread was over-inflated but even had the Patriots gone on to win, a majority of betting community would have told you it was too much. This year, the consensus at Sportsmemo is that the line is fair. Pittsburgh may be a “public team” but unlike Arizona, there aren’t many flaws with this team, especially on the defensive side. Is Arizona capable of pulling the upset? Absolutely. Again, turn back the clock to last year if you want a team that endured difficulties,found its groove, was undervalued and came up big. In the upper right-hand corner are recommendations on the side and total from all of the Sportsmemo Handicappers. Good luck and enjoy the game!
Tim Trushel
Will T. Hightower score a touchdown?
No-180
In his last eight games, Hightower has two TDs. He did not have a receiving TD during the entire season and had only one play of more than 30. Simply put, he is not a huge part of the offense. The only projection for a TD here would be on a short yardage situation but Arizona likes to pass in goal-to-go spots (Pittsburgh’s defense allowed seven rushing TDs during the regular season). Grab the no now
Rob Veno
A. Boldin total receiving yards
Over 64.5 -115
Boldin compiled 62+ yards in 11 of his 14 games played this season. You have to believe the highly publicized sideline argument between Boldin and OC Todd Haley has the receiver extremely determined to produce and Haley looking to get him the ball. With Pittsburgh’s best and most physical cover man Ike Taylor assigned to Larry Fitzgerald,look for Boldin to take advantage of CB Bryant McFadden.
Donnie Black
E. James rushing attempts
Under 13.5 -130
In the last week of the season against Seattle, James got back into action and ran 14 times for 100 yards. In three playoff games he carried the ball 52 times. Yet we think the amount of carries had much more to do with the situation of Arizona holding big leads, and we don’t expect that to happen here. Additionally, while Baltimore showed a willingness to run the ball, Arizona will eschew the run if it does not produce dividends.
Brent Crow
E. James’ first rush yardage
Under 3 -145
The main reason I bet this under is that I think the majority of James’ rushing attempts will be for 3 yards or less. Pittsburgh allowed just 3.2 yards per rush on the year while James averaged 3.9 ypc. His first attempt could very well be on the first play of the game for Arizona, and I expect Pittsburgh to be ready for it. Minimal gains expect to be a common theme for James.
Teddy Covers
Total Interceptions
Over 2.5 +150
Research has proven that fumbles are largely random, but interceptions
are quite predictable. Both Arizona and Pittsburgh are strong at pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers. In two postseason games, the Steelers have seven sacks while forcing four INTs. In three postseason games, the Cardinals have forced eight INTs and notched seven sacks. We’ll take the plus-price and play this one over.
Jared Klein
Who will have more receptions?
L. Sweed (PIT) / J. Urban (ARI) -135
Sweed had only two catches for 20 yards against Baltimore even though Heinz Ward left the game with an injury. Urban should benefit from the hot routes that Arizona will have to run in order to avoid the Steelers’ blitz. Urban had 34 catches on the season compared to six for Sweed and I think this prop has solid value. Take Urban over Sweed this weekend.
Tim Trushel
Will T. Hightower score a touchdown?
No -180
In his last eight games, Hightower has two TDs. He did not have a receiving TD during the entire season and had only one play of more than 30. Simply put, he is not a huge part of the offense. The only projection for a TD here would be on a short yardage situation but Arizona likes to pass in goal-to-go spots (Pittsburgh’s defense allowed seven rushing TDs during the regular season). Grab the no now.
Fairway Jay
B. Roethlisberger completions
Over 17.5 -115
Ben Roethlisberger posted 17.5 completions per game despite the fact that the Steelers faced a far superior schedule that included many defenses superior to Arizona. The Cardinals’ pass defense allowed over 62% completions this season. Each of the three opposing playoff QBs completed at least 17 passes including Carolina’s Jake Delhomme, who had a miserable day. Play this one over.
Erin Rynning
E. James total rushing yards
Under 42.5 -110
While James had games of 73, 57 and 73 rushing yards in the playoffs, keep in mind the Cardinals played with a lead for the majority of the time. More importantly, none of those foes were as stout as the Steelers’ in terms of stopping the run. In the Cardinals’ game against the Eagles, James was able to break a few mid-yardage runs because of simple missed tackles. I don’t expect that type of success in this game.
Ed Cash
Total fumbles lost by both teams
Over 1.5 +115
I think there is good value with the over in this prop. Both quarterbacks have had a propensity to fumble during their careers when sacked (14 lost fumbles combined this season).Arizona ranked fourth in the league with 20 forced fumbles during the regular season. With the blitz expected to be called with regularity, we’ll take the plus-price with the over.
Marty Otto
C. Davis rush+receiving yards
Over 2.5 +120
Davis was an afterthought in the offensive scheme this season as the Steelers went to more one back sets and spread formations. But he has proven to be a nice piece of the puzzle over the past three games. With five catches and one carry for 52 total yards in his last three games, eclipsing this mark looks doable. We just need one touch in 60 minutes and with a nice plus price we’ll take that chance.
Helmut Sports
Will Kurt Warner throw at least one INT
Yes -230
With Pittsburgh very good at stopping the run, Arizona could potentially have even more pass attempts than normal. Quarterback Kurt Warner has thrown at least one interception in six of seven games that Cardinals have lost. Since I think it’s likely they will lose and Pittsburgh ranked second in the AFC in interceptions, the likelihood of this occurring outweighs the moderate sized price.