FAIRWAY JAY
CLEVELAND AT DETROIT
Recommendation: Cleveland
This is a Super Bowl Sunday NBA feature on ABC as the Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Detroit to take on the Pistons. A changing of the guard this season has Cleveland with a commanding 10-game lead over their division rival whereas the slumping Pistons have lost four of their last five home games. Detroit will have battled Boston ‘s No. 1 defense Friday night at home, and then must take on Cleveland’s No. 2-ranked stop unit. The Cavs are also one of the NBA’s top offenses in terms of efficiency, led by LeBron James’ 28 ppg and excellent shooters throughout the starting lineup. Mo Williams continues his excellent play at the point, and Cleveland enters the week with three straight road wins including victories at Portland and Utah. The Cavs should be primed and determined for this rematch after Detroit won the only meeting this season back in November. Cleveland is clearly playing some of the best basketball in the NBA with solid contributions and team chemistry throughout the lineup even with center Zydrunas Ilgasuskas on the shelf (ankle). Cleveland will likely be a small road favorite, and I look for them to prove they are the better team and payback the Pistons
JARED KLEIN
NASHVILLE AT EDMONTON
Recommendation: Edmonton
Two teams heading in the opposite directions take to the ice this weekend when the Oilers face the Predators at Rexall Place. Heading into the All-Star Break, Edmonton was on a huge roll winning seven out of its last nine at home to jump into second place in the Northwest Division. “Guys are playing better, individuals are playing better right now,” head coach Craig MacTavish was quoted as saying.“Guys like Sam Gagner and Erik Cole have chemistry. Robert Nilsson was playing well. Ethan Moreau is playing well. Andrew Cogliano is playing the best he’s played. Marc Pouliot’s developed and G Dwayne Roloson is playing well. The defense is moving the puck pretty decently. And confidence is a large player in all of this.” The bottom line is this team is finally coming together. The same cannot be said for the Predators who have a road record of just 8-16 and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Nashville has been beaten by a combined score of 10-3 over its last two games and was booed off their home ice after a 7-2 loss to the Atlanta Thrashers. The road hasn’t been kind to the Predators this season and I look for that trend to continue this weekend in Edmonton
Gina
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals with one of the league’s top offenses have been the underdog in each of their three playoff games, scoring 30 or more points and beating tough teams. However, the Steelers are an incredibly tough team and defensive coach Dick LeBeau will have his Steel Curtain ready to immobilize Arizona's high-scoring offense. Look for the Steelers to focus with a relentless onslaught against Quarterback Kurt Warner, disturbing his passing game. Go with Pittsburgh to grab its sixth world championship.
Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Tony Karpinski
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Over 46.5
Super Bowl Prop Plays
B. Roethlisberger completions Over 17.5
Ben Roethlisberger posted 17.5 completions per game despite the fact that the Steelers faced a far superior schedule and defenses superior to Arizona. ALso the Steelers playoff games were in cold weather. The Cardinals’ pass defense allowed over 62% completions this season. Each of the three opposing playoff QBs completed at least 17 passes including Carolina’s Jake Delhomme, who had a miserable day. Play this prop OVER!
E. James total rushing yards Under 42.5 yards.
While James had games of 73, 57, and 73 rushing yards in the playoffs, keep in mind the Cardinals played with a lead in all of those games and were milking the clock. More importantly, none of those foes were as stout as the Steelers’ in terms of stopping the run. I don’t expect that type of success in this game. PLAY THE UNDER in this prop
Will Kurt Warner throw at least one INT? Yes!! Lay the -230 because with all the presure and possibility of a tipped pass there is a very good chance of an INT. With Pittsburgh very good at stopping the run, Arizona could potentially have even more pass attempts than normal. Quarterback Kurt Warner has thrown at least one interception in six of seven games that Cardinals have lost. Pittsburgh ranked second in the AFC in interceptions, the likelihood of this occurring outweighs the moderate sized price and this is my favorite prop to play.
Bryan Leonard
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals
PICK: Arizona Cardinals
We talked about this with our Cardinals selection over the Eagles earlier in the playoffs and for those who didn't purchase the play we will reiterate. Arizona didn't play 16 games in the regular season like most other teams, they played just 13 meaningful games. You see they had the division sewn up early on and didn't need to exert the kind of effort that the Steelers had to use each week. The Cardinals had the ability to pick and choose which games they could concentrate their efforts on and it saved them come playoff time. Arizona was sitting at 7-3 and were hosting the Super Bowl favorite Giants in a Sunday night game in the desert. Despite giving it their all they fell to the defending champs 37-29. They then had to travel to Philadelphia to play a Thursday night game on short rest. Obviously the Cards cared little about this game and the Eagles blasted them 48-20. The Cards were able to get their revenge in the playoffs when both teams had something to play for. The following week Arizona beat St Louis 34-10 to clinch the division and their first playoff game is what seems like forever. As pointed out by Howie Long on the pregame show the following week the Cardinals partied like it was 1999. Long said he had never seen a team still celebrating the victory this far along in the week, and it showed as Minnesota crushed the Cards 35-14. The following week with again nothing to play for Arizona (a warm weather team) traveled to New England to face not only a Patriot team in a must win situation, but blizzard weather conditions with below zero temperatures. As expected the Cards mailed the game in as New England pounced 47-7. So keep in mind when you talk about the overall stats for Arizona that not all games are considered equal.
Pittsburgh is thought of as a terrific defensive team, but take a look at their schedule. Cleveland twice, Cincinnati twice, Baltimore twice, Jacksonville, Washington and Tennessee. While we know this Steeler defense is very good they have been playing either in terrible weather or against weak offensive opposition. So how has Pittsburgh done against playoff competition? Besides Baltimore who they beat three times, they lost to Philadelphia by 9 at home, lost to the Giants by 7 at home, lost to the Colts by 4 at home, beat San Diego by a single point at home before winning the playoff rematch, and lost at Tennessee by 17 on the road.
Arizona is every bit as good as the Steelers, especially getting a full touchdown. Grab up the last of the sevens and look for the Cardinals to take this one to the wire.
PLAY ARIZONA
HUDDLE UP SPORTS
Lock Parlay
Pittsburgh -7 & Under 46'
Big Time Sports
Propositions
First score of game to be anything other than a TD +160
First score of game will be anything other than a pass +160
Total interceptions by both teams Over 2.5 +140
Total Field Goals by both teams Over 3.5 +130
Will there be a Special Team or Defensive score? Yes +150
Cards to score TD in 1st quarter +160
Cardinals total punts Over 5.5 +125
Larry Fitzgerald total receptions Over 6.5 +125
Santonio Holmes total receptions Over 3.5 +110
Total number of players to attempt a pass Over 2.5 +200
Bryan Leonard
Arizona & Pittsburgh
We talked about this with our Cardinals selection over the Eagles earlier in the playoffs and for those who didn't purchase the play we will reiterate. Arizona didn't play 16 games in the regular season like most other teams, they played just 13 meaningful games. You see they had the division sewn up early on and didn't need to exert the kind of effort that the Steelers had to use each week. The Cardinals had the ability to pick and choose which games they could concentrate their efforts on and it saved them come playoff time. Arizona was sitting at 7-3 and were hosting the Super Bowl favorite Giants in a Sunday night game in the desert. Despite giving it their all they fell to the defending champs 37-29. They then had to travel to Philadelphia to play a Thursday night game on short rest. Obviously the Cards cared little about this game and the Eagles blasted them 48-20. The Cards were able to get their revenge in the playoffs when both teams had something to play for. The following week Arizona beat St Louis 34-10 to clinch the division and their first playoff game is what seems like forever. As pointed out by Howie Long on the pregame show the following week the Cardinals partied like it was 1999. Long said he had never seen a team still celebrating the victory this far along in the week, and it showed as Minnesota crushed the Cards 35-14. The following week with again nothing to play for Arizona (a warm weather team) traveled to New England to face not only a Patriot team in a must win situation, but blizzard weather conditions with below zero temperatures. As expected the Cards mailed the game in as New England pounced 47-7. So keep in mind when you talk about the overall stats for Arizona that not all games are considered equal.
Pittsburgh is thought of as a terrific defensive team, but take a look at their schedule. Cleveland twice, Cincinnati twice, Baltimore twice, Jacksonville, Washington and Tennessee. While we know this Steeler defense is very good they have been playing either in terrible weather or against weak offensive opposition. So how has Pittsburgh done against playoff competition? Besides Baltimore who they beat three times, they lost to Philadelphia by 9 at home, lost to the Giants by 7 at home, lost to the Colts by 4 at home, beat San Diego by a single point at home before winning the playoff rematch, and lost at Tennessee by 17 on the road.
Arizona is every bit as good as the Steelers, especially getting a full touchdown. Grab up the last of the sevens and look for the Cardinals to take this one to the wire.
PLAY ARIZONA
GREG SHAKER
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Steelers -6.5
There are a couple of things about this play that I do not like and that is why I have waited so long pouring over it. The line movement is both good for us and bewildering but overall I am happy about getting the number that we have. In most recent Super Bowls, the Dog has been a team that was able to compete due to their defense, but that is not what we have for this contest in Tampa. Sure, the Cardinals have picked up their D efforts in the playoffs, but they are still the same team they have been and their pass coverage is still very marginal. They will also have to contend with a very good Steeler Run D, and it is one that has had 2 weeks to get well and get rested. In every phase of the game, Pittsburgh is the better squad. However, the better squad does not always win the game, and cover the spread. I have to believe that Pittsburgh will here. Don't be surprised in Hines Ward is named the MVP after this one is in the books. He is a Big Game Player and he is going to be getting open often, mostly on short routes. That is why I am playing Ben Roethlisberger Over 17.5 completions as one of my props. While Edrin James has lit up in the past few games, he is going to have some some difficulty rambling through this Steeler defensive front and LB's. That is also why I am playing him Under 42.5 yards. The 2 week layoff gives additional advantages as the AZ offense, which has been in gear, will have to get back into the scheme of things playing a pretty darn good D. I absolutely despise laying these points or any points in a game of this magnitude but we are doing the right thing here. We have to remember, the Cardinal is a beautiful bird, but perhaps not after crashing into a Steel Curtain. Ball control, Good D, Pressure on the AZ QB, and a strong desire for Pitt, should give us what we want, a 13 to 17 point Steeler victory.
David Malinsky
OVER 2.5 Players to Throw a Pass
Super Bowl prop betting is its own separate academic discipline these days, with literally hundreds of various options, and many of those options having their own unique sub-sets. And while there is serious money to be made, particularly for those with good market access, we are not going to go into a laundry list here – many of the tickets that we have in our pockets are at edges that may no longer be available (it does not take all that much money for the lines to be adjusted). But we do have one that you should still be able to play at a decent underdog payback, calling for the number of players to throw a pass in the game to be Over 2.5.
The opening line on this prop was close to historical levels, but we see this as being a much different matchup. First, we start with the fact that both starting QB’s are a bit fragile, and will absorb some contact. Since back-ups Matt Leinart and Byron Leftwich are both competent, we do not believe there will be a hesitancy for either Kurt Warner or Ben Roethlisberger to go to the sidelines for a bit if they are dinged up. Nor will there be any hesitancy to throw passes with either back-up on the field.
Second, neither of these offenses will hesitate to reach into their bag of tricks, while both coaches are also more than willing to gamble on special teams. The Cardinals had pass attempts from a RB, TE and Punter this season, and while they did not use Anquan Boldin in that role, he has a couple of career pass attempts. The Steelers can use Hines Ward in the same fashion, of course, and Mewelde Moore and Willie Parker have both thrown passes in their careers.
The return being offered on this Prop makes it a worthwhile investment as part of your Sunday portfolio.
Norm Hitzges
Pittsburgh (-7) vs Arizona Total: 46.5
There are some truly deceiving numbers in the matchups in Super Bowl XLIII.
It looks like a mediocre Steelers offense (#22 in the league) vs a mediocre Arizona defense (#19 in the NFL)
Then there's 'Zona's marvelous offense (#4) vs the #1 rated Pitt defense.
But let's look closer:
1) Pitt's supposedly shaky offense full season rating can be so deceiving. These Steelers have averaged a whopping 28.5 ppg their last 8 games and that includes meetings with some of the league's best defenses. Pitt's the #1 rated scoring "D" in the league. After them in the defensive ratings came: Tennessee, Baltimore, Philly, and the Giants. 9 of Pitt's 18 games have been against the other seven best defenses in the league. In addition, the Steelers have played several games in shaky weather conditions.
2) Arizona's apparently porous defense. Be very careful. this unit has come together to force 12 turnovers in three playoff games. They've faced Atlanta's Michael Turner, Carolina's DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and Philly's Brian Westbrook in the playoffs and those terrific runners combined did not total 200 yards rushing. The Cards defense smothered Carolina star receiver Steve Smith holding him to a pair of harmless catches. Forget the season rankings. This Cards "D: has performed far better than its regular season ranking.
The other half of the matcup features real numbers. The Arizona offense and the Pitt defense deserve the respect their numbers suggest. Pitt, in fact allowed only one team to gain over 290 yards in aa game this year (Tennessee got 373).
Offensively Arizona's running game has perked up in the playoffs. Pitt ground game has benefitted from the return to health of Willie Parker. Both offenses should be ready to attack--especially Arizona.
I believe these Cards know they cannot sit back and simply slug it out with Pitt. They must go right after the Steelers. Warner's been terrific in the two Super Bowls he's played in and I don't feel will be rattled by the Steelers. Zona simply can't figure it will win this game playing conservatively. I look for them to go long early and often.
This, for me, sets up a higher scoring game. Pitt really hasn't faced a passing attack with this kind of potency and Pitt's offense is, as detailed, significantly better than it appears.
DOUBLE PLAY: TAKE PITT/ARIZONA OVER THE TOTAL
SINGLE PLAY: TAKE ARIZONA PLUS THE POINTS
Jimmy Boyd
Edgerrin James Total Rushing Attempts: Over 12.5
Edge averaged just over 10 rushing attempts per game in the regular season, but his production is up in the playoffs. He carried 16 times against the Falcons, 20 times against the Panthers and 16 times against the Eagles. While I don't expect Edge to do a lot of damage against the No. 2 ranked rushing defense in the NFL this season, I do expect the Cards to run him to keep Pittsburgh honest. Edge got his most carries in the postseason against the team that was the most effective against him – the Carolina Panthers. He gained just 57 yards on 20 carries for a 2.9 yards per carry average. So even though Carolina was stuffing James, the Cardinals continued to pound him as part of their new game plan. Hightower figures to get some totes too, and the Cards may throw a few more wrinkles into their playbook today, but I still have Edge getting 14-16 carries in the game. Bet Edgerrin James Over 12.5 carries in Super Bowl XLIII.
Dennis Macklin
Half the fun of the betting the Super Bowl is betting the props. It’s the one time a year that Vegas/Offshore lets its hair down and uses a little imagination on that side of the window. These days, everything is fair game including cross sport wagering. It’s great.
Back in the day, props for the most part were easy pickings’ but tolerated because of the generally low limits. Today, the books have caught up and a great deal of work, research and thought are now put into the props and the line.
Here is a small sampler of some of the props I’ve played, props and lines courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton.
3rd Quarter Wagering
Steelers -1/2 -135
Cards +115
Take the Cardinals: I put this one in the memory bank watching the NFC Championship Game while the color guys were sizing the Eagles chances for a comeback. One mentioned that Kurt Warner was the best 3Q quarterback in the league this year with a 112 QBR and a 14-2 TD/Int ratio. I don’t imagine that those numbers changed much in the three plays the Cardinal offense was on the field two weeks ago. This is the side to be on if the Cardinals are down at half.
Total QB Sacks By Both Teams (5 and a half sacks)
Over -120
Under -140
Take the Over: Warner and Roethlisberger are as elusive as Frankenstein jogging thru quicksand. Roethlisberger has been down 192 times in his career in just his fifth year and you can imagine how many it would be if you count the near misses he shrugged off with his strength. If Warner is forced to throw 40 times, use your imagination.
Who will have More???
Jeff Reed (Pittsburg) Field Goals Made +115
LeBron James missed Free Throws -135
Take LeBron missed Free Throws: LeBron is shooting about 77% this year from the charity stripe after shooting below 70% the last two years. The King was 3-6 Thursday vs. Orlando and has been pretty up tight with officials of late. Cavs play the Pistons so I put LeBron on at least 10 trips to the line. Three misses and probably two does the trick here.
How Many Players on Both Teams will Attempt a Pass??? (2.5)
Over +190
Under -165
Take the Over: Look like stealing right??? Not so fast. One of the others in our Prop “Think Tank” who also has no life informed me that the Over occurs in approximately a tick below 14% of all NFL games. That said, I’ll bite here. An injury to either QB makes us winners as will any gadget play that involves a pass. We know it’s in the Steelers playbook by Randle El to Heinz Ward. Surely the Cards have a wrinkle and we all know Boldin was one time QB.
Total Receptions by Anquan Boldin (5.5)
Over -125
Under +105
Take the Over: Boldin’s sideline “chat” with OC was as much a story as the Cardinal win over the Eagles. That said, Boldin’s had an extra week to get treatment on the sore left hammy and should be good to go here. The general consensus seems to be that to throw on the Steelers that you must do so over the middle. Who’s better than Boldin over the middle and if Pitt doubles Larry Fitzgerald as probable, 8-10 yard slants could become the de facto Arizona running game.
Dave Price
Kurt Warner - Total Passing Yards – Under 259.5 (-115)
This may surprise some of you, but I'm taking the under here. This is one of these lines where the books are begging the public to jump on the over. If you do the math, Warner has averaged 281.7 yards per games including the regular season and the playoffs, but yet the books have set his number 22 yards lower here? I smell a rat. Usually the prop bet numbers are based on season averages and based on this line, the books are anticipating a less productive game, yards-wise, from Warner, and it makes sense. Arizona has made running the football more of a priority in the postseason, Warner is facing the NFL's No. 1 ranked passing defense, and Pittsburgh has a ball control offense which figures to run more clock and give the Cards less possessions than its previous playoff opponents. Warner has been under this mark in each of Arizona's last 3 road games, including a second round playoff game at Carolina when he threw for only 220 yards. Warner may be the most focused player on either team heading into this game, and I can't see him playing poorly, but I also can't see the Steelers allowing him to go off through the air.
Jeff Alexander Sports
Will Willie Parker Score a Touchdown in Super Bowl XLIII: Yes (-115)
Parker only scored five rushing touchdowns during the regular season, but he was also battling injuries, as was the offensive line. Now he and the line are much healthier and appear to be gelling at the right time. Parker has racked up 193 yards and two touchdowns through Pittsburgh 's first two playoff games to prove it. Like Arizona , Pittsburgh has shown an increased desire to run the football in these playoffs so Parker should get at least 20 rushing attempts to score one. Also, Pittsburgh loves to run the football in the red zone. This team plays things conservatively near the goal line. They don't like to run the risk of throwing interceptions down there as they have great confidence in their defense and will gladly take a field goal. Parker's number is going to be the one called when the Steelers are getting ready to score and I like him to stick one in.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Pittsburgh (14-4, 11-7 ATS) vs. Arizona (12-7 SU and ATS)
The NFC champion Cardinals hope to successfully finish off a stunning run to their first Super Bowl when they meet the AFC champion Steelers, who are going after a record sixth Lombardi Trophy.
Arizona blew all of a 24-6 halftime lead in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago against Philadelphia, then chewed up nearly half the fourth quarter en route to the winning touchdown in a 32-25 victory as a 3½-point home pup. The Cards posted their fourth straight win and cover – and second in a row from the underdog role – behind a stellar game from QB Kurt Warner (21 of 28, 279 yards, 4 TDs), who had no turnovers. WR Larry Fitzgerald (9 catches, 152 yards, 3 TDs) was once again dominant, and RB Edgerrin James (16 carries, 73 yards) helped loosen things up for the passing game.
In the victory over Philadelphia The Cardinals got outgained 454-369, allowing Eagles QB Donovan McNabb to have a huge second half and finish with 375 yards passing and three TDs. But Arizona won the turnover battle 3-1 and is now an eye-popping plus-9 in turnover differential through three playoff games, including seven INTs, after finishing with an even turnover ratio in the regular season.
Pittsburgh dropped Baltimore 23-14 as a six-point home chalk in the AFC Championship Game, yielding only a touchdown in the second and fourth quarters to its division rival in posting a third consecutive SU and ATS win. The Steelers defense allowed a stifling 198 total yards and forced Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco (13 of 30, 141 yards, 0 TDs) into three INTs, leading to a 4-1 turnover edge, including safety Troy Palomalu’s game- and spread-clinching interception return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh has a plus-5 turnover differential in its two playoff games, after going just plus-4 for the entire regular season.
Offensively, QB Ben Roethlisberger (16 of 33, 255 yards, 1 TD) wasn’t brilliant, but he had no INTs or lost fumbles, despite getting sacked four times. The Steelers couldn’t add much with their ground game, though, finishing with just 275 total yards in a battle of the league’s top two defenses.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS. Last season, Arizona – led by then-first-year head coach and former Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt – posted a 21-14 home victory as a 5½-point underdog. In that game, Warner came off the bench to replace a hurt Matt Leinart and went 14-for-21 for 132 yards and one TD, while Fitzgerald grabbed 11 balls for 123 yards. Roethlisberger finished just 17-for-32 for 244 yards with two TDs offset by two INTs. Arizona finished with a 301-282 edge in total yards.
Pittsburgh’s top WR Hines Ward, who sat out last year’s game at Arizona with an injury, sprained his knee in the AFC Championship game against Baltimore, but he practiced fully on Friday and is expected to play today. Roethlisberger is also listed as probable despite bruised ribs. The Cardinals enter this contest with no significant injuries.
While this is Arizona’s first Super Bowl appearance, Pittsburgh is making its seventh trip to the big game. The Steelers are 5-1 SU and ATS in the previous six, including a 21-10 victory over Seattle as a four-point favorite in Super Bowl XL in Detroit three years ago.
Among the 12 playoff participants, Pittsburgh is sixth offensively at 308.5 ypg, but the Steelers are second in scoring at 29 ppg. In the regular season, the Steelers were in the back half of the league in every major offensive statistic, with per-game averages of 21.7 points (20th), 311.9 total yards (22nd), 105.6 rushing yards (23rd) and 206.3 passing yards (17th).
Roethlisberger was the NFL’s 24th-rated QB, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,301 yards, offsetting 17 TD throws with 15 INTs, but he has no INTs and two TD throws in the playoffs. RB Willie Parker, limited to 11 games because of injury, rushed for 791 yards (3.8 ypc) and five TDs, and WR Hines Ward (81 catches, 1,043 yards, 7 TDs) tied for 14th in receptions and was 15th in receiving yards.
The Steelers have allowed 244 yards (2nd) and 19 points per game (tied for 3rd) in the playoffs, following up on their sterling regular season, in which they sported the league’s No. 1-ranked defense in points allowed (a meager 13.9 per game), total yards (237.2 per game) and passing yards (156.9), along with the second-best run-stopping squad (80.2 ypg).
Arizona has fielded the top-scoring unit in the playoffs, at 31.7 ppg and is the first team in NFL history with three straight 30-plus point playoff games, and the Cardinals are third in total offense, averaging 362.0 ypg. That certainly matches up with the team’s regular season stats, as Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs (third), against 14 INTs. Fitzgerald led the NFC in catches (96, 4th overall) and yards (1,431, 2nd overall), and he tied Detroit’s Calvin Johnson for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 12.
Fitzgerald has been a monster in the playoffs, with 23 catches for a postseason record 419 yards, along with five TD receptions, three of which came in the first half against the Eagles.
Defensively, Arizona is sixth in the playoffs in yards allowed (324.3 per game) and eighth in points allowed (20.7). In the regular season, the Cards ranked a lowly 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and 19th in yards allowed (331.5 total ypg).
The Cardinals made six trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, but the lone SU win was huge: a 33-13 bashing of second-seeded Carolina as a healthy 10-point underdog in the divisional round of the postseason. Along with their current 4-0 SU and ATS surge, the Cards are on ATS rolls of 4-0 on grass, 4-1 catching 3½-10 points, 4-1 in the playoffs and 12-5 against winning teams. On the down side, prior to its playoff run, Arizona had gone 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS against winning teams this season.
The Steelers are on a 7-1 SU and ATS spree dating to the regular season, winning by an average score of 25-14. Pittsburgh is on a bundle of additional spread-covering streaks, including 7-0 in the playoffs, 4-0 laying points in the postseason, 6-1 against winning teams, 6-1 on grass, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 24-11-1 as a chalk of 3½-10 points. The Steelers are also on a 5-1 SU and ATS uptick against winning teams, following an 0-5 ATS plunge earlier this season against teams with a winning record.
Since 1994, seven teams have won a Super Bowl and returned to the championship game within three years; Pittsburgh now makes it eight, having won the big game following the 2005 season. However, the previous seven teams went just 1-6 ATS on their return trip, including heavily New England losing outright to the Giants as a 12-point chalk last year.
The favorites and underdogs are an even 5-5 ATS so far in this season’s playoffs, with the SU winner going a perfect 10-0 ATS. However, the Giants’ upset of the Patriots last year gave the underdogs a 5-2 ATS mark in the last seven Super Bowls.
The over for Pittsburgh is on tears of 12-2 in the playoffs, 7-1 with the Steelers a postseason chalk, 11-5 overall with the Steelers laying points and 6-2 after a SU win. Likewise, the over for Arizona is on a boatload of runs, including 35-16 overall (7-2 in their last nine games), 20-6 after an ATS win, 22-8 after a SU win, 38-13 with the Cardinals catching points and 19-7 against winning teams. However, the total has stayed low in the past four Super Bowls, the longest stretch of “unders” in Super Bowl history since seven consecutive “unders” from 1969-75.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER