Randall the Handle
Arizona +6½ +1.00 over PITTSBURGH
The stronger the Cardinals look the less respect they’re getting and frankly, I don’t give a rats ass what the stats say, the Cardinals are going to be tough to beat here and 6½ or 7 is way too many. Yeah, the Cardinals limped into the playoffs but so what. Once they got there they’ve been a powerhouse and it’s not like they haven’t beat anyone. They opened with a solid win over Atlanta and hung a 30 on a tough defense. They followed that up by blowing away Carolina, in Carolina no less against another tough defense and a stifled an offense that was firing on all cylinders. Incidentally, they put up 33 points. Then they took on the surging Eagles and blew them away in the first half before they got a little complacent and saw its 24-6 halftime lead turn into a one-point deficit. In a crucial possession, down by a point and all the pressure in the world on them, the Cardinals put together one of the best drives in playoffs history; a 72-yard, eight minute beauty, capped off by a two-point conversion that left Philly with under three minutes to go. Oh, they hung a 32 on the Eagles against a defense that was playing at its peak. Now they’re getting seven points against an offense that is not even close to being as good as Atlanta, Carolina or Philadelphia. Sure, the Steelers defense is tough as shoe leather and it’s unlikely the Cards will put up 30 or more. However, to cover or win they won’t have to, as the Steelers offense leaves plenty to be desired. Ben Roethlisberger gets the job done but man, this guy takes a ton of chances in that he throws the ball up for grabs in the same fashion as Brett Favre. He’s been very lucky to have not been picked off more than he has and in this league you just can’t keep getting away with those erratic throws. My only concern in this one is the Cardinals kicking game, as punter Ben Graham shanks too many punts and if he’s kicking deep inside his own end it could give the Steelers some great field position. Having said that, I’m not going to let that deter me from taking back these points, as the Cards are playing great football and should they score first, which is a distinct possibility, the Steelers will be extremely hard-pressed to not only cover but to win outright. Finally, the last time the Steelers were in the Super Bowl in 2006, they beat the Seahawks and every reporter, fan and observer questioned the refereeing in that one. Some even went as far as saying the fix was in. The Steelers got every call and than some. They got calls that weren’t there and they had nothing called against them. You can’t take the human element out of anything and the refs are human and there’s no way they aren’t aware of the bias that was showed towards the Steelers. Some media was even calling for an inquiry into that game, that’s how biased the refereeing was. The point is, don’t expect the Steelers to get favorable calls in this one. Folks, I’m calling the upset but in now way am I passing up these generous points. Play: Arizona +6½ +1.00 (Risking 3 units).
Bobby Maxwell
Pittsburgh vs. Arizona, in Tampa, Fla.
I've given out seven straight days with a FREE winner and delivered a comp play Saturday with UCLA as the Bruins blew out Stanford. Today we're at the Super Bowl for a comp play on the UNDER between the Steelers and Cardinals.
The gameplan for the Steelers was laid out two weeks ago when the Eagles came out in the second half and erased a huge halftime deficit to take a lead before letting the Cardinals get a late score for the NFC championship.
It was all about pressure for the Eagles in that second half. And it's pressure that the Steelers can apply and have been applying all season to teams. They can get to QBs without having to blitz and when they do blitz, they certainly will get to Arizona QB Kurt Warner.
Because of the pressure, we love the under in this one as the Steelers aren't going to allow more than 17 points, and the question comes as to how will their offense perform against the rejuvanated Cardinals' defense.
Pittsburgh's offense wasn't spectacular against Baltimore in the AFC title game. The big question comes if they will get enough points to trump the Cardinals' 17 tonight (see my big paid winner for this answer).
Last year when these two teams met, Arizona got a 21-14 home win as a 5 1/2-point underdog and neither offense was impressive, with the Cardinals having a 301-282 edge in total yards.
In their last Super Bowl, the Steelers' defense stepped up and delivered a big performance, giving up just 10 points to Seattle three years ago in the 21-10 victory. And in the last four Super Bowls, the under is a perfect 4-0. This game is going to surprise a lot of teams as it is a defensive struggle for much of it. Like we said, the Cardinals are getting 17, but can the Steelers get enough to win? And if they do, can they cover?
Either way, it's definitely an Under play.
5♦ UNDER
Mr A
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Pittsburgh Steelers potent defense, the best in the league will be challenge by the Arizona Cardinals strong offense led by quarterback Kurt Warner. The Steelers and the Cardinals last face off on Sept. 30, 2007 when Arizona won 21-14 as 5½-point home underdog, but the Steelers are 2-1 SU and ATS in the past three meetings. Arizona has never played in a Super Bowl, while Pittsburgh has won five, tied with Dallas and San Francisco for the most Super Bowl titles in NFL history. Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games, 11-7 ATS this season. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last eight games, 12-7 ATS this season. I believe this will be a close contest with the outcome being decided at the closing stages of this battle. They say defense wins championships, but the Steelers won’t put the brakes on the very motivated Cardinals offense and Warner. Look for the Cardinals wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald to challenge the Steelers and its domineering defense. Pittsburgh is the better team and I do think they will win, but the Cardinals have made it this far and their record shows they are a good underdog bet. Take the points!
Johnny Guild
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals can win?
Arizona surprisingly upset Carolina then they defeated the Eagles and their tough defense. If the Cardinals offensive line can protect Kurt Warner from the Steelers brutal defense and constant blitzes, he will be effective and connect to his outstanding wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Points will be scored and the Steelers won't score enough to stay with the Cardinals.
The Pittsburgh Steelers can win?
The Steelers ferocious defense will pressure Kurt Warner and safety Troy Polamalu will be the beast in his face. Meanwhile, QB Ben Roethlisberger and their running game has success against the Cardinals defense, while they control the the clock.
Conclusion
I have been stunned and burnt by Arizona performance down the stretch this season. The Cardinals have beaten tough teams and been the underdog in each of their three playoff games. Then again, defense wins championships and the Steelers have held opponents to fewer yards on average than any defense since 1978. Personally, I will make the smallest wager of the season on this game and sit back and enjoy. I believe the Steelers will win, but the Cardinals will cover the spread. The game will depend on Arizona's offensive line holding up to the Steelers hard-hitting defense.
Triple Threat Sports
2* Pittsburgh (-7) over Arizona
3* Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Arizona (See below)
3* Pittsburgh/Arizona UNDER 46.5/47
Five minutes after the NFC Championship Game was over, we had made our line on this game, and it was Pittsburgh -8 with a total of 43. Two weeks later not much has changed, and we like the Steelers and the Under here. We like the Steeler side because we really like experience in big games in any sport, and most of the Pittsburgh roster has SB pedigree as this team was here just a couple of years ago in the win over Seattle. It is true that Kurt Warner and some other Cardinals have played in a Super Bowl, but collectively the Pitt edge in that category is too much to ignore. Another factor is that the public and bettors in Vegas are in love with the Cardinals; call it a Giants vs Patriots hangover if you will. You would all be amazed how many times we have heard something to the effect of "well the Giants won last year, the Cardinals can do it this year" in sportsbooks over the last two weeks, when the fact of the matter is that the game is not correlated, and if not for a once in a lifetime catch by Tyree the Giants would not have won last year. So, this rush to take the dog in Super Bowls is a bit of a knee jerk, and we will go with the better defense and more experienced team, and take the Steelers here. Numbers show that first time SB teams are just 5-11 ATS when taking on a team that has played in one, and should the line be Pitt -6.5 as it is in most places now (and probably will be at some points in the day Sunday, play smart!) note that SB favs of 3' to 6' points are 8-1 ATS.
As for the total, we do not look for the Steelers to light up the scoreboard, and the Cardinal offense is going to struggle against the staunch Steeler defnese. Also, neither team possesses a great return game, so that should not lead to any direct points off of special teams. As such, feel the line is higher than it should be, and we will accordingly take the Under, and in fact in our initial line the total was farther off the actual total than was the side. Numbers show that four straight SB's have gone Under the total, and that both teams are giving up less than 20ppg in the post season.
Our call on the final score is Pittsburgh 26, Arizona 17.