Bob Balfe
New England -12 over NY Giants
The New England Patriots are one win away from not only a Super Bowl Victory, but bragging rights as the best team in NFL history. There is no denying that this Patriots team is one of the best teams ever put together and you just have to ask yourself one thing. Do the Giants, who were 10-6 on the year and just 7-5 in the weak NFC, have a shot? It is obvious that their success lies on Eli Manning's back. The media bashes Manning due to the fact he plays in the biggest media market in the country, but he has played excellent in the playoffs and is becoming a good QB. I still do not think it will be enough. Plaxico Burress opened his mouth and predicted a Giants win. If there was one guy that really could be a factor in the success of this offense I would have say it would be him. Now that he fired up the Patriots I expect them to play him even tighter in coverage. Burress still has not yet practiced this week and it will be interesting to see how he performs.
The betting public, as of Friday, are betting more on the Giants. This shocks me because you have the greatest team to ever step on the field playing in the Super Bowl and still the bets do not favor them heavily. The Patriots have been awful against the spread in the last two months while the Giants have cashed the ticket. A lot of people will come out of the woodwork to bet this game and they all remember the Patriots failing to cover the previous two super bowls they played in. This New England team is truly America's team, but unlike the Cowboys of the 90's the general public can’t stand this team other than the fans in the Boston area. Most think Randy Moss is a thug, most think they are cheaters from the spy games on the Jets and most people out of pure jealousy just hate Tom Brady because he has it all on and off the football field. Bill Belichick is a miserable looking dude with a personality as tasteless as his beat up sweatshirt that he never changes. With all of this negative press does it really matter? Not to me it doesn't. Belichick is the best football coach in the last 20+ years and Tom Brady with another Super Bowl win will go down as the best QB ever in the playoffs.
The Giants have a lot of young rookies that had a big impact on their success this year, but they are just rookies and have a lot of maturing to do. Eli Manning has never faced this kind of pressure and although I think he can handle it, I don't think he will be at his best. The Giants kicker has the flu. I am sure he is going to play, but it takes a good week to fully recover from something like that. The Super Bowl is not a game but more of an event. The Patriots have been on this stage before and know how to handle it. New York has a lot of injuries and young guys in their secondary and it will probably be too much to handle New England's great receivers in Welker and Moss. Lawrence Maroney has been running the ball with power and to be honest I can’t find one flaw in the New England offense at all. Sure, they give up a few points on defense, but they have a bend but don't break mentality and always seem to come up with a key turnover at the right time.
This week reports came out about a woman charging Moss with assault and we all have seen pictures of Brady in his leg brace hoping around. This is all media driven hype that has people liking the Giants chances even more. There is nothing wrong with Brady and that leg will only be a problem if somehow the Giants win this game. I believe the linemakers did an excellent job at getting money off of New England and onto New York. A few things that I don't think the Giants will be able to do is consistently pressure Brady with Maroney running as well as he is doing and with the threat of their receivers. One blitz gone bad and the Patriots put up a touchdown in a flash. What are the Giants going to do when New England goes with five wide receivers? The Giants are thin enough in their coverage. Who do you put on Mike Vrabel when the Pats get in the redzone? So many things will have to go wrong for the Patriots and right for the Giants for New York to win this game. There is much talk about the Giants Defense line dominating this game. They are excellent, but Matt Light and the rest of the New England offensive line give Brady all the protection he needs. The Giants are the hottest team in the NFL right now, but the two week layoff is the worst thing that can happen to a team that is on a roll. A rule of thumb in big games like this is to bet on the team you think is going to win. If New England gets backdoored with a minute or two left then that is just the price you pay for gambling and obviously there is no way to predict something like that happening.
I am going with the Patriots and in my own personal opinion I don't think the Giants make this a close game. If New England gets a big lead you can shutoff the lights. We have not had a Super Bowl blowout in a long time and to be honest it doesn't matter to me if the Patriots win by two touchdowns or five, but New York could be in for a long night. I do not see anyone on the Giants offense capable of really beating them with speed like Steve Smith of the Panthers and LJ Smith of the Eagles did in the last two Super Bowls they played in. The whole world will be tuned in and all of the other 18 victories mean nothing if the Patriots do not win this game. This team has the experience and talent to beat the Giants by this 12 point number. The stage is set for the Patriots to go down in history and judging by their perfect season so far I cannot go against them. Brady and Belichick will go down as two of the most influential people in NFL history on Sunday. Take the Patriots.
Brian Smith
NY Giants (+12) over New England - 3 units
The New York “Road Warrior” Giants travel to Phoenix, Arizona this upcoming Sunday in a rematch of Week 17 versus the New England Patriots to compete for the ultimate prize, The Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLII (42).
The Giants have overcome many obstacles this season beginning with an 0-2 start, critics questioning the leadership and maturity of their QB Eli Manning who throughout the course of the season was at times inconsistent, and working in several rookies in and out of starting positions throughout the season.
With that being said, it truly is amazing that the Giants are representing the NFC in this years Super Bowl, in a place where they feel comfortable though, THE ROAD! The Giants are the first team in NFL history to win 10 straight road games within a single season, and number 11 would be even better. While many analysts point out ridiculous factors why a team is not playing well, such as the weather, no veteran leadership, etc, etc. This years Giants team is pretty easy to analyze as they finally learned how to play together as a team, more so, like one cohesive unit. Giants HC Tom Coughlin realized at the beginning of this season that he HAD to make some changes, as he was losing the respect of the team, therefore creating a “Leadership Council” which simply provided a means of communication from the Head Coach down to the Council representatives, then down to the remaining players, and vice versa back to the head coach.
You can sit here and analyze all the X’s and O’s you want but in my opinion, the ONLY WAY a team gets to the Super Bowl is because obviously they are well coached, talented, etc, etc, but primarily because they RESPCECT one another, BELIEVE in one another, and ultimately TRUST one another. Again, it’s a big achievement especially for a young team comprised of many rookies, such as Giants are, because it takes time for a team to gel, and also to trust the primary TEAM PHILOSOPHY that the HC is trying to get across.
NEW ENGLAND on the other hand is going for their 19th straight win as we all know because this subject has been beaten to death this year, but the difference in New England’s squad is that they have many veterans leading the way, not to mention the fact that they not only believe in their teams philosophy, etc, but they are almost brainwashed it seems at times, they have played like a well oiled machine and every single player on the team, not only starters, but down to the 3rd stringers, are in sync. And I mean in SYNC! Its almost scary.
HERE IS THE BOTTOM LINE IN HANDICAPPING THIS GAME
New England played many games throughout the course of the season, as we all know , where they were DESTROYING their opponents, almost to the point where it was almost humorous. They were covering spreads of more than 20+ week in and week out. But just when you thought you knew this NE team, they turn around and play an entirely different gameplan in beating teams pretty handily by passing less and rushing for 100 yards or more in a game, where before they would only maybe attempt ten rushes. Many my not realize that NE has actually NOT COVERED in 7 of their last 8 games. Granted, part of the reason is due to obviously larger double digit spreads but still case in point is..
I will take my chances playing on a team (Giants) that has:
*#1 Pass rush in the NFL
*won 10 straight road games
*that after starting off season 0-2, finished up 10-6 , but as a wild card ran the playoff table winning @ Tampa Bay, @ Dallas, and @ Green Bay. That is almost impossible in itself. Not to mention the fact that Green Bay and Dallas just happen to be the same 2 teams that gave the giants their first 2 losses. (shows how giants have grown)
* and FINALLY…GETTING double digits to boot at +12, some actually may have +12.5 or +13 even better.
Again, nobody knows what New England is going to do. Just hope that they rush for over 100 yards. Yes, sounds crazy but that would almost guarantee a cover at +12, you don’t want Tom Brady coming out passing like crazy. I am aware that this New England team may be one of , if not, THE BEST team of all time, but that has little to do with the fact that I feel it will be a close competitive game.
Stryker Mid-week writeup
4* KEY RELEASE
NEW ENGLAND (-12) over NY Giants by 21
Respect is certainly given to New York and the run the Giants have put together to reach the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, it's not going to be enough to keep me off New England in Super Bowl XLII.
Back on December 29th, in the final week of the regular season, these two teams met at the Meadowlands and put on quite a show. New England escaped with a 38-35 victory and finished 2007 with a perfect 16-0 SU record. The G-Men get another shot to erase that goose egg from Patriots loss column. Unfortunately, this rematch won't be anywhere near as close.
According to my NFL database, Super Bowl favorites priced at -7' or more are a profitable 6-3-1 ATS dating back to the 1980 season. That's not a huge sample but certainly noteworthy considering the Pats are almost two-touchdown favorites!
There are other technical reasons to like "The Brady Bunch" here too. Since 1982, non-division road (or neutral) teams are a wallet-breaking 2-11 SU and ATS provided they enter off three (or more) straight up underdog wins. If our "play against" side owns a won/loss percentage greater than .500, this technical situation crashes to a shocking 0-10 SU and ATS. New York is locked into this nasty set.
The fact that New England has failed to cover the pointspread five consecutive times is appealing too. Off those ATS losses, the general public will shy away from laying this large number with the Patriots. That, to me, sounds like the perfect time to get on board.
One thing the Boys from Boston have done is played well when matched up against an opponent that enters with momentum. In fact, when battling a foe that arrives off two or more straight up victories, the Pats are a solid 43-14 SU and 32-22-2 ATS including a superb 25-13-1 ATS in this set coming off a non-division affair.
Since the start of the 2002 season, the AFC has been in control of the NFC. In fact, AFC favorites priced at -7' or more are a profitable 21-9 ATS provided they're matched up against an NFC foe that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .333. The Patriots have been the NFL's best all year long. They'll prove that one last time with an awesome performance in Super Bowl XXLII. Take New England.
Guys new to the site. Love the site. I will contribute sites I follow. I follow four services. So, no need to pay for them. Believe it or not, best site I follow is a free site. They kick ass big time especially in big games. The have never let me down in the big games ever in the 4 yrs I have followed them. So, you can check them out for free. Check out Saturdays hoops. It will prove to you its a free site. I also follow PPP. They are out of Pittsburgh. The cappers name is Joe Gavazzi. He is a lil cold right now but usually above average. I follow Ats consultants. Gotta say I am disappointed, but they are great on their football game of years which are over now for the year but next year I'll play those plays again. Usually four of those plays. Then I follow another service call Spike Sports. This is a SCAM. I feel like an idiot for paying them. They have won their last 6 picks, but at one point lost 19 of 22. Besides they are thieves. Thats a whole different story. But, is the real deal and I love the fact they post for free. They do have charge days, but Id say 90% of the time free. If they ever have charge days just get the picks from me here cause I get those plays as I buy them.
NO URL's PLEASE
Players of America
(5-2 this year on 5* rated plays)
New England Patriots -12 (5* / 50 Units)
SUPER BOWL PLAY OF THE YEAR
The New York Giants are officially the NFC Conference Champions for this season after capping off an incredible end with a huge win in Green Bay in freezing cold weather almost two weeks ago on Sunday. I know right off the bat that everyone is going to jump on the Giants in this game because of their 38-35 loss to these same Patriots in the final regular season game of the year but betting based on that would be a huge mistake because how many times do you see return matches be as close or as blowout-ish as the first ones? Almost never. The Giants are in incredible form ever since their come from behind win over the Bills late in the season and I don't think anyone thought that they could walk into Tampa Bay to steal a win, walk into Dallas to steal a win and walk into Green Bay and steal a win. I don't think any of those teams had more than 2-3 home losses all season. So the Giants are now an incredible 10-1 AWAY FROM HOME THIS SEASON and they have gone 10-1 ATS in those very same games. So you must wonder how one can fade this team under these circumstances but its not tough because looking back on their season, the Giants (prior to the playoffs), played on the road and beat Buffalo (non playoff team), Philadelphia (non playoff team), Chicago (non playoff team), Detroit (non playoff team), Miami (non playoff team), Atlanta (non playoff team) and last but not least Washington (playoff team). So before coming into the playoffs the Giants had beat only playoff team on the road. I have a feeling some of their momentum is gone and that's going to be a huge issue for this team. The Giants come into this game averaging 23.2 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 325.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. What people tend to underestimate is how well the Patriots have played on the defensive side of things this season having allowed only 17.0 points per game this season and having allowed only 293.0 total yards of offense per game on the year and 5.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Giants are going to need both RB Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to be at their best in this game as the team has average 130.2 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. We all know that New England has had problems stopping the run but if the Giants go down early I don't see how running the ball is going to get them anywhere. New England has allowed only 97.6 rushing yards per game this season and allowed 4.4 yards carry in those games. In the air, QB Eli Manning has waited for this for quite some time and you can bet your bottom dollar he is going to be nervous. Manning has completed 56.3% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 3336 total passing yards, 23 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. He is going up against this New England defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.6% of their passes on the season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt and that is exactly what they need to keep it at. The Patriots are just as good as the Giants when it comes to the pass rush as they average 2.7 sacks per game this season and are facing an offensive line that has allowed 1.8 sacks per game on the season. I also like the fact that the Pats have a bunch of playmaking aggressive guys in their secondary as they have picked off 1.2 passes this season which could be a huge problem for Eli when he faces them for the second time this season after looking brilliant the first time out. I would love to say that the Giants have gone without too many fumbling problems this season but they have fumbled the ball 1.6 times per game and any type of mistake like that is really going to be a big problem in this game because the Super Bowl is all about who can make the bigger plays. The Giants have not exactly been all that good when it comes to third down conversions this season as they have managed to convert only 41.6% of their chances on the year and that is going to be a problem again this Patriots defense that has allowed their opponents to complete only 33.5% of their third down chances on the season. If you are going to win the biggest game of them all you need to be good in the Red Zone and the Giants have now scored touchdowns in 56.1% of their Red Zone entries this season which doesn't bode well for them seeing how New England has allowed opponents to score touchdowns 55.3% of the time once entering the Red Zone. The key to this game for this offense is going to be how fast they can get back into the groove that they had at the end of the season. Its never easy starting from scratch after two weeks off and getting back into the motions is very difficult. Eli Manning is no Peyton Manning and that has me concerned because he lacks the big game experience that guys like Brady and Manning have playing in AFC Championship Games or Super Bowl Games. I think the offense is going to stutter terribly if the Patriots come out swinging and if the Patriots take a big lead by the half they lights are just not coming back on. The Patriots have played decent defense all season and that's all that really matter.
The New England Patriots thought they had it all, they have the perfect 16-0 record on the season, they are now the best team to ever play the game of American Football but you and me and everyone all know that this season will not be complete if this team does not bring home the Super Bowl on Sunday. Nothing matters unless you bring home that ring and nothing matters unless you win the one game that actually means something for once. Now the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl did not come without event as it was announced that QB Tom Brady could possibly have some kind of broken foot or broken bone in his foot as he was seen walking around with a cast boot on his foot but it has not been confirmed as nothing more than precautionary measures for his ankle problem that has been coming on and off all season. This injury should not hamper the teams chances at all and I don't see why Brady would be affected by this. Now looking back on how the Pats did on the road compared to how they did at home (ATS wise that is), it seems like they played with a lot less pressure away from home this season where they went 5-3 ATS on the year and where odds makers never really gave them enough credit in those games. I know its really tough for some of you to back a team that is now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and that has not even covered the spread one single time this post-season but I'm telling you that the two weeks off are going to have made all the difference in the world with this Patriots team and if the Giants are not ready for what is coming, this game is going to be done by the time we hit the half, I'm sure you've heard me say that before. New England comes into this game averaging a whopping 35.6 points per game this season and no matter what they have done this post season , there is no doubt in my mind that the Patriots are going to match this average and they are going to probably score more than that. In those games, the Pats also managed to average a whopping 407.2 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play which is good enough if their defense can hold off the G-Men, unlike the final week of the season. The Giants are actually a lot better than people assume on the defensive side of things as they have allowed only 21.2 points per game this season and have allowed 303.2 total yards of offense per game in those games for 5.2 yards per play which is pretty damn good. The Patriots running game is important but its not key to the win and cover here as they average only 119.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry while the Giants have managed to hold teams to only 95.1 rushing yards per game on the season and 3.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Tom Brady is the master of Super Bowl Games having never actually lost in the Super Bowl and although that is not about to change this time around, I would like to point out that experience of playing in more than one of these games is priceless. Brady has completed an impressive 68.9% of his passes this season for 4806 passing yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 50 TOUCHDOWN PASSES and only 8 INTERCEPTIONS!!!. Now that is some incredible stuff for a QB who also had a QB Rating of 117.2 on the season. The Giants secondary needs to show up for this game or it will get ugly in a hurry as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.8% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt which is plenty of space and time for Tom Brady to get the job done. Brady has been well protected all season as the offensive line has been great and they have allowed only 1.3 sacks per game. That's the best news Patriots backers could hear is that the O-Line is well rested because they are going to have their hands full with a Giants pass rush that is the best by far in the NFL (by at least 10 sacks) and that is averaging a whopping 2.9 sacks per game on the season. I would not say that it has been easy for Giants opponents to move the ball through the air because it hasn't but the opportunities are there and I am sure that Tom Brady is going to take full advantage of the situation. Unlike the Giants, the Patriots have not had and do no have a problem holding onto the fumble as they have lost only 15 fumbles all season and that is probably one of the lowest margins or amounts in the NFL. We all know how aggressive the pass rush is and how aggressive some of these defenders are but the Patriots just plain and simply don't make big mistakes and that's not changing here. What makes the Patriots once again the more enticing wager in this game is the fact that they are converting a whopping 49.1% of their third down chances this season and going up against a Giants team that has now allowed opponents to convert 37.1% of the time. Moving onto the Red Zone attack, the Patriots have the best Red Zone offense in the NFL as they have scored touchdown in a crazy 69.5% of the times they have entered the Red Zone. That is definitely not a good sign for the Giants who have allowed their opponents to score touchdowns in 60.0% of their Red Zone entries this season. You know there is really not much else to be said about this team other than they are amazing, they have the best offense in all of football, this is the biggest game of most of their careers. The offense should have no problems moving the ball and picking apart the Giants and as long as there are no significant injuries, I say this game is going to be a blowout. This is a team that is going to score close to 40 points every single time you see them and if they can get that going in this game, there is no chance that the Giants are going to pull the office stung that got us our doc killed. LMAO! I expect this offense to be pure Bill Bellichik and his mastermind stuff which is why I am betting on the guys and the coaches who have already won Super Bowl wins with this game. New England is here because they mean business and the Giants just don't have the defense to keep up in this game. I say blowout in this game and I say yet another boring super bowl.
This is the way I look at this game guys. If you watched TV the last two weeks, if you followed experts on message boards, if you read the newspapers, if you bought some analysis online, if you filled out your Super Bowl props and picks sheet and if you are watching this football game on Sunday, the odds are that everyone is on the Giants assuming that they can do exactly what they did the first time against the Patriots in that season ending game that allowed New England to go a perfect 16-0 on the season. However, what you have to understand about that first meeting was that the Giants had absolutely nothing to lose, they were loose, they were having fun and they were hoping for the best to come out of that game and it did. The Patriots on the other hand had been fighting week in and week out the entire season to keep their perfect record and we know how banged up they were and they were most definitely very vulnerable the first time against these Giants. Now...they are coming off a full two weeks of rest, preparation and practice where they most definitely went over tons and tons of game tape from the first meeting and I don't think there is much more to argue about here other than the fact that the Patriots have more experience, they are the better team, they are not going to have a perfect season and lose this game. I love that everyone is on the Giants and that the Giants are the flavor of the month because its rare that Super Bowl Games are close and this one should be no different this year. You cannot possibly think that the Pats are going to revert to the close type of games they played in the second half of the season and if you ask me this game is going to be out of hand by the time we hit the half and the Patriots are going to sail to the best overall season in professional sports history. They deserve it and betting on the Giants to keep things close is a huge mistake in this game.
Trend of the Game: New England is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games played on natural grass.
New England 42, NY Giants 13
T.Covers
New England Over 54
ANALYSIS: To say the Patriots offense was adversely affected by the weather late in the season is something of an understatement. Week 11 against Buffalo was cold, windy and snowy. Week 12 against Philly was played in the cold. Week 13 against Baltimore was cold and windy. Week 14 against Pittsburgh was cold. Week 15 against the Jets was cold, rainy and windy. Week 16 against Miami was cold and rainy. Week 17 against the Giants was cold and damp. Their first playoff game against Jacksonville was cold. Their second playoff game, against San Diego, was even colder, and very windy. Quite simply, the Pats have played nine consecutive bad weather games. In the nine games that they played before the northeast weather turned sour, they scored 38, 38, 38, 34, 34, 48, 49, 52 and 24 points, just shy of 40 points per game. There will be no adverse weather conditions to worry about in Arizona on Sunday.
When the Pats played the Giants back in Week 17, they had nine ‘meaningful’ drives in the first meeting between these two teams (discounting the two ‘take a knee possessions, one before halftime, the other at the end of the game), and they scored on seven of those drives. We can fully expect New England to score five touchdowns or more in this game – this is the highest scoring offense in NFL history, facing a banged up defense that they torched just a few weeks ago.
The question here is whether the Giants are going to be capable of putting up some points of their own, enough to send this game Over the already inflated total. I believe the Giants will be able to put up enough. Their red zone offensive execution has been stellar, thanks to their offensive balance, while the Patriots defense has proven to be a tad bit vulnerable down the stretch.
That being said I’ve made two proposition wagers to hedge on the Giants ability to score just a bit. First, I bet New England Over their team total (33 is the prevailing number), expecting the Pats to take care of business offensively. Second, I bet the total number of touchdowns Over 6, a bet with two advantages. First, we can ‘push’ a 28-14 final that goes Under the total, not worrying about field goal kickers accuracy vs. fourth down conversion attempts. Second, we can cash when others lose on the Over 54 (the current prevailing number; 53.5’s still out there as I write this on Wednesday), given a 31-21 type of final score. This is not a bet to wait on – I strongly recommend that you make this wager ASAP, as the total is sure to rise by gameday. Take the Over.
New England -12
ANALYSIS: There are two schools of thought about this Super Bowl, as legitimate arguments can be made for both sides here. As any professional bettor will tell you, the Super Bowl is NOT a time to step up your side and total wagers. Those who are looking for more action than a normal game will find ample opportunities for a profitable result in my Super Bowl props report.
The case for the Giants goes as follows: First, New England might be a great team, but they sure aren’t covering pointspreads, just 2-8 ATS in their last ten games, laying double digits each and every time. Second, the Giants proved that they are capable of hanging with New England back in Week 17, a three point loss that was tight throughout. The G-men won’t be intimidated by the Pats. Third, the Giants aren’t getting enough respect from the betting public, despite winning on the road at Dallas and Green Bay to get here. This team has won ten straight games away from home, an accomplishment that may never be repeated in a single season, and they have been playing at a Super Bowl caliber level dating back to late December.
I think those are all valid points. That being said, my money is on New England this Sunday. Here’s why:
The Patriots are the best football team that I’ve seen in my lifetime. This is their defining moment, their chance to clinch history, to clinch immortality. We KNOW that the Patriots are going to bring their ‘A’ game this week, and their ‘A’ game is as good as any in NFL history. That, folks, is something I’m not willing to stand in front of.
The Giants have little chance to slow down New England’s record setting attack. The Pats had nine ‘meaningful’ drives in the first meeting between these two teams (discounting the two ‘take a knee possessions, one before halftime, the other at the end of the game), and they scored on seven of those drives. The Patriots had the highest scoring offense in NFL history. The Giants secondary is banged up. After playing in adverse weather conditions repeatedly in the last six weeks, the weather in Arizona will be just fine for the Pats offense. And New England, a veteran team that has been to three previous Super Bowls this decade, is well prepared for the rigors and intensity of football’s biggest stage.
The Giants were playing with a boatload of momentum throughout the NFC Playoffs. We saw a similar story in the World Series this past year. Colorado was the hottest team in the world, but they were forced to sit for a week after winning the NLCS. They couldn’t regain that momentum and were swept out of the World Series. Ohio State had an eight week layoff before the BCS championship game in college football, two full weeks longer than their opponent. It showed. The two week layoff here does not help the G-men one iota, whereas Bill Belichick with an extra week to prepare is a dangerous thing for Giants supporters.
There is one additional factor favoring New England worth discussing – turnovers. The Giants just ran through the NFC playoffs without committing a single turnover. No fumbles, no interceptions, nada. Well, Eli Manning threw 20 interceptions this season, more than twice as many as Tom Brady. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw put the ball on the ground seven times between them. And they’ll be facing a defense that does an extraordinary job at confusing quarterbacks and forcing turnovers. New England finished the regular season with a +16 turnover margin, while the Giants finished at -9. Expect that differential to come into play in the Super Bowl, turning what might have been a close game into a rout. Take the Patriots.
Many of the props that I’m recommending in this report are related in some way to my side and total wagers. I encourage you to read my game and total write-up before reading the prop bets in this report. I made two prop recommendations with my Total report that are not included in this write-up. The lines listed below are from my own personal wagers, both here in Las Vegas and offshore. Lines vary dramatically from sportsbook to sportsbook, so be sure to shop around for the best current number.
Tom Brady: Total Pass Attempts Over 35.5
The Patriots are the masters at ‘taking what the defense will give them’ and the Giants are certain to defend against the deep pass. Expect lots of dink and dunk from Brady on Sunday, which equals an Over bet on his total number of pass attempts.
Wes Welker Total Receptions Over 7
The Giants depth in the secondary will be tested early and often. Welker caught more passes than anyone in the NFL this year, and should be open all day in the slot. Lots of pass attempts as described above means lots of receptions for Welker.
Kevin Faulk Total Receiving Yards Over 32.5
Faulk is Brady’s checkdown receiver out of the backfield, when the downfield receivers are covered. He’s a vastly underrated component of this offense, a big play threat when he gets the football in his hands. In the Patriots last three games, he’s caught 21 passes for 182 yards.
Total Patriots Players to Catch a Pass Over 6.5
This prop is 16-2 through the Patriots first 18 games. Lay the extra juice, don’t bet Over 7, and enjoy every pass that Heath Evans, Kyle Brady, Laurence Maroney or Mike Vrabel catches after Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Gaffney, Watson and Faulk have gotten theirs.
Brandon Jacobs +23.5 rushing yards vs. Laurence Maroney
Maroney got a ton of carries and yardage late in the season in bad weather games, but he was a non-factor in better weather conditions earlier in the season. The Giants offensive gameplan will emphasize the run, looking to keep the Patriots offense off the field as much as possible.
Laurence Maroney Under 20.5 carries
Maroney had three games all season with more than 20 carries. All three games were in bad weather conditions, when Brady and the passing game were adversely affected.
Giants +12.5 rushing yards vs Patriots
The Pats will come out throwing; the Giants will come out running. ‘Nuff said.
Giants to have more penalty yards
The Pats will come out throwing, which inevitably means a pass interference call or two, sooner or later. New England ranked in the top quartile of the league in fewest penalties and penalty yards. The veteran Pats have been here before, which should help with false start/offsides penalties due to early game jitters.
Giants to have the longer kickoff return.
Based on the pointspread and the total alone, we can project New England to have more kickoffs than the G-men, giving the Giants a better chance to get said return. In the first meeting, the Giants returned eight kicks, compared to four for the Pats, a disparity that should repeat itself on Sunday. And let’s not forget that the Giants returned a kick for a touchdown in the first meeting, with the better return game all year.
Patriots to have the longer punt return.
The Patriots punted 49 times in their 18 games. Eight were fair catches, six were touchbacks, leaving a grand total of less than two returnable punt attempts per game. The Giants, on the other hand, saw Jeff Feagles punt 86 times this year, including 15 in their three previous playoff games. Quite simply, the Pats should have a lot more punt return attempts, giving us substantial value with this prop
Wunderdog Super Bowl XLII Props
OVER 7.5 punts -130
The Superbowl has featured 32 of 41 games played with more than 7.5 punts in a game or 78% of the time. Now, we know that many Superbowls in the early years that featured posted totals in the 30s it would be easy to attribute the high number of punts to those games with low totals. But we have done the research to prove otherwise. One would think with a total posted in the 50s (with high powered offenses) that the punters would not be on the field very much. There have been six Superbowls prior to this year with posted totals of 50 or more. The punts in each of those games were 9, 9, 9, 9, 2 and 12. That means even in games with a high offensive expectations, five of the six had 9+ punts. Since this was a rather small sample size, we then looked at games with a total of 48+. This added eight more games with high offensive expectations.Seven of those eight games also featured more than 7.5 punts! The lowest punt total in this group was 7, just missing. So in the 14 highest lined total s in Superbowl history 12 have topped this posted number of 7.5.To make sure these games went as expected, we looked at the total point output in these 14 games and it was 51.4 ppg, so the games were in fact high scoring. The average number of punts in these games was 9.5. What about the fact that New England has one of the best offenses ever? Surely they won't punt a lot, right? While New England was rolling early in the year, just two of their first eleven games exceeded the total. But, four of the last seven did. The Giants exceeded this total in 16 of their last 17 games, including all three playoff games. So, Super Bowl History points to OVER. Super Bowls with high totals points to OVER. The Giants play all season points to OVER. And the recent play of New England points OVER. Obviously, we like the value in OVER 7.5 punts here.
OVER 2.5 INTERCEPTIONS +162
The average number of interceptions per game in the NFL this year was 2.1. But, are playoff games and the Super Bowl the same as the regular season? No! There are two big differences: the best defenses and much more pressure. The Superbowl history shows that 22 of 41 games have had 3+ interceptions. That is a 53.7% expectation yet we see a moneyline here of +162! Smells like value on the surface. Let's look deeper. Ten of the last 16 Superbowls have featured 3+ so it wasn't just early on.This is probably set low because of the Brady factor. Brady however threw just four INTs in his first 10 games this year and seven in his last eight. We also have uncovered a very telling stat that ties the increasing probability of interceptions with the increase of game pressure. This regular season just 86 of 256 games featured 3+ interceptions or 33.6%. The playoffs, and Superbowl history show an entire different story.Here is the data for the playoffs over the past 10 years. You will see with each round, the percentage goes up with the added pressure, and peaks in the Superbowl. The 2007 regular season was 33.6%. The first round of playoffs was 38.9%. Conference semi-finals round was 47.2%. The Conference Finals round were 50% and the Superbowl 53.7%. So we have an opportunity here to get +162 on this prop with an estimated 45% - 54% expectation of winning, so we like the over 2.5 interceptions.
1st QUARTER UNDER 10.5 -130
25 of 41 Superbowls have played the first quarter under this total. You may think that in the early years of the Superbowl would be the time this would contribute most to the first quarter being low scoring. That is in part true, but nine of the last ten Super Bowls have played under this total! The average first quarter points scored in the first quarter in all Super Bowls is 8.5 and over the last 10 years it is 5.2 ppg. We believe as the magnitude of this game seems to grow year by year, the teams go through a feeling out process early, to get a feel of what they can do vs their opponent. Teams start conservatively, not wanting to make a huge error early in the game. But what about Super Bowls with high-scoring offenses like New England's? We looked and it turns out that four of the six Super Bowl games with a total posted at 50+ have gone under this total, including the last three. We also found that of the 16 Super Bowls with a total of 47 or more, ten (62.5%) have played UNDER this 1st quarter total. Many will look at this Pats offense and say they will score that themselves. The fact is the 1st quarter in New England games went UNDER this total in 12 of 18 games, and six of the last seven! The Giants played UNDER this number in 15 of 19, so combined they played 27 of 37 UNDER 10.5 or 73% of the time, including a game vs each other. We like the first quarter to go UNDER 10.5 points scored.
Strike Point Sports Picks For Football
Super Bowl XlII Plays
5-Unit Play.Take New York +12 over New England
The Giants covered in week 17 as double digit underdogs, and in the big game they will come through as well. New York has come on extremely strong this playoffs, and Eli Manning has played the best of any quarterback this postseason. The Giants have the pass rush on the defensive line to get in the box and pressure Tom Brady. We'll also see a strong, two headed rushing attack in Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw that can keep the chains moving and control the clock. Similiar to what we saw with the Chargers, the G-Men can run the ball, establish tempo and have success on the defensive side of the ball. The only difference will be that New York will not settle for field goals. They will have success in the red zone and turn drives into points. The Giants will score at least 24 points in this rematch, and they will score the cover in Arizona.
Vegas Vic's selection
Please indulge me for a few sentences, because this is one season that Double V wishes would roll on and on . . .
No matter what happens with the Super Sunday selection, I'll finish at least a dozen games over .500, and the playoff run (8-1-1) has been making it very tough to fit my wallet - and I hope yours - in my back pocket. Alas, the season must end, but not before we pick the Super Bowl. So, for those who have been riding Vic and all the playoff underdogs to the winner's circle, you can start barking right now.
How can you possibly ignore New York's numbers, both as a 'dog and, even more impressive, on the road? The Giants have ripped off an NFL single-season record 10 straight road wins and have covered nine of those. They are working on a 5-0 spread run, as well.
We also remember the regular-season finale, when New York went toe-to-toe, blow-for-blow with New England, and came up three points short. Despite what Plaxico Burress said, the Pats should score more than 17 points (that could be a first-quarter total) and should dance off the field with their fourth Super Bowl title in the last 7 years. As for the final score, 31-24 sounds about right.
L O C K O F T H E D A Y
Superbowl Lock:
NY Giants +12.5
There is no reason to think the results will be different from the game they played five weeks ago!! Why would it!? That night the Giants gave the Patriots everything they could handle. The fact is, the Patriots have not been the same team that sliced through NFL in the first half of the season. Teams are figuring them out. They rely too heavily on the passing game. New England has failed to cover in three of the past four!
LOCK OF THE MONTH!!!!!!
Tom Brady UNDER 1.5 Yds Rushing
Gotta go in depth to understand this bet. Out of the hundreds of prop bets, there are a few that stand out. Taking the Over on this bet is a true SUCKER BET. THE UNDER IS AN ABSOLUTE LOCK. First of all, Tom Brady does not run the football! He loves to stay in the pocket and throw the ball. When Brady is under pressure, he throws the ball away, he does not run it!! Second, Tom Brady has an injured ankle!!! He had a protective cast on his foot last week! Third, The Giants pass rush is the best in the NFL!! They will sack Brady countless times!!! Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora are Pro Bowl defensive ends. They could knock Brady out of the game! Lastly, and this is the most important 'wise guy' info, Brady will most likely take a kneel-down or two. Nobody thinks about this. At the end of the game, the Patriots will most likely be winning. Brady will kneel on the ball once or twice, resulting in negative rushing yards. He could do it at the end of the first half as well. Tom Brady's rushing yards versus the Giants in Week 17: -4 yards! Brady versus the Chargers two weeks ago: -2 yards. Brady versus the Jags: +1 rushing yard. THIS IS THE BET!!!! THIS IS WHERE WE ARE PUTTING ALL OF OUR MONEY! This Lock is worth THREE Locks wins, or three Lock losses. MAKE THIS BET!!!!!!!!!!!!
· Most Vegas sportsbooks have this Prop Bet at Brady Rushing Yds Over 1.5 -140; Under +110
· Sportsbook.com line: Brady Over 1.5 yds -145; Under +115
· Bodog.com: Brady Over 2 yds -125: Under -105
Vegas Sports Informer's Picks For Football (NFL and NCAA)
SUPER BOWL 42 PLAYS
3 Unit Play.Take New England –12 over NY Giants
The Patriots stand 60 minutes from the first 19-0 season in NFL history! The New York Giants are seeking to play spoiler to this NFL History mark. Will the Giants do this? NO! New England has had two weeks to prepare and giving this Patriots offense and defense two weeks could be a bad thing for the Giants. If New England scores first this game could get ugly and I feel the Patriots win this game by double digits. New England is 40-19-3 when playing on grass.
4 Unit Play. #101 Take Under 54 New England and NY Giants (Sunday 2/3 6:30 PM FOX)
Plaxico predicted a low scoring game and now I will predict a low scoring game. But not too low! New England will score over 24 points but will the Giants be able to score. New England is 5-14 O/U in their last 19 playoff games. The Giants are 1-4 O/U in their last 5 playoff games. Here is my predicted score New England 31 and NY Giants 14.
4 Unit Play. Take Under 14 ½ 4th Quarter Wagering (Sunday 1/20 6:30 PM FOX)
My SB Prop Play of the Day! This game could be out of reach by the 4th quarter so I’m hoping for a lot of rushing and the clock moving. I’m hoping New England has this game in the bag by 4th so I can just watch Tom Brady taking a knee.
6 Unit Play. Take Kobe Bryant (LAL) PTS, Rebounds, and Assists +9 ½ over Total Points scored by the Patriots/Giants. (Sunday 1/20 6:30 PM FOX)
Kobe Bryant is playing the Washington Wizards on the road on Sunday and I’m looking at an Over/Under around the low 200’s. Kobe Bryant is averaging 27.8ppg, 6.2 rebs, and 5.3 assists and I’m getting +9 ½. In 2006 on a NFL Playoff weekend Kobe threw up 81 points. Hey Kobe! Do it again and try to overshadow the Super Bowl.
Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take New York Giants (+12) over New England Patriots
This is just too many points to pass up. The Giants played with the Patriots in the Meadowlands when they had much less to play for than New England. New York matched them physically and emotionally and I think they will do the same on Super Sunday. Trends are out the window at this point, so this is just a play for pride. This entire bet – and this entire game – really comes down to something that, as I’ve learned over and over again, you just can’t handicap: turnovers. If the Giants turn the ball over less than two times we’re going to cover this bet and they have a very strong chance to win this game. Same goes for if they win the turnover battle overall. If the G-Men turn the ball over twice, it’s a 50-50 bet, and if they turn the ball over more than twice it’s going to be a bloodbath. I see New York taking care of the ball, rushing and playing good, aggressive defense, and I think that while the Patriots will win this will be a fourth-quarter game and an entertaining one at that.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 54.0 New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)
1-Unit Play. First Quarter: Take ‘Under’ 10.5 New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 2)
The first quarter play is kind of obvious. I expect each team to come out and dance around the ring for about 15 minutes. No one wants to be the first team to allow a big play or be the first team to commit a turnover so I expect each club to play it close to the vest. Sam Madison is the only guy who may blow this one for us.
As for the game total, it’s my default setting to play ‘under’ in any game where the total is 50 points or below. Over the past three years there have been 25 games with a total posted at 50 or above and the ‘under’ is 18-6-1. We may miss here but the value is against the public, which expects a high-scoring affair or a New England blowout. The 'under' is 4-1 in New York's last five playoff games and 13-5-1 in New England's last 19 postseason outings. The total points should settle somewhere between 43-49 with a late score making it seem closer than it was.
Super Bowl Props
1-Unit Play
Team To Have The Most Penalty Yards Against Them – Giants (-115)
0.5-Unit Plays
Tame To Score The Shortest Field Goal Of The Game – Giants (-120)
Brandon Jacobs Total Receiving Yards – ‘Over’ 12.5
First Score Of The Game Will Be – Field Goal or Safety (+180)
Huddle Up Sports
Super Bowl Lock
New England -12
HIGH ROLLER TOTAL
New England/NY Giants over 54
PROP ODD WINNERS
***** 5* Rating **
123 Total rushing yards by NY Giants over 97' (-135)
174 Jacobs rushing yards over 55' (-175)
180 Burress longest reception over 20' (-115)
215 Welker Receiving yards over 75' (-115)
229 Gostkowski total points over 8' (+120)
* 4* Rating *
171 Bradshaw Total Receptions over 1/2 (-175)
173 Jacobs first rushing attempt over 3' yards (-110)
181 Burress total receptions over 4' (-145)
204 Maroney pass receptions over 1 (+160)
216 Welker total receptions over 7' (+140)
3* Rating ***
121 Will Jacobs score a TD: Yes (-110)
160 Longest TD of game will be under 47' yards (-115)
187 Boss receiving yards under 20' (-115)
196 Brady passing yards over 294 (-110)
200 Maroney Total rushing yards over 81' (-110)
211 Moss total receiving yards under 92' (-130)
217 Welkers first reception over 9' yards (-110)
** 2* Rating **
113 Will either team have 300 yard passer: YES (-140)
115 Will there be a score in the first 7' minutes: YES (-230)
139 Total Net yards in game over 709' (-140)
172 Bradshaw rushing + Receiving yards over 50' (-150)
177 Jacobs Longest rush from scrimmage over 13' (+100)
178 Jacobs rushing attempts over 15 (-125)
* 1* Rating *
136 Total first downs in game by both teams under 42' (-110)
142 Will largest lead of game be over 17': YES (-150)
143 Total Number of players to have pass attempt over 2' (+200)
189 Boss Longest reception under 12' yards (-105)
Carlo Campanella comp
Game: New York Giants at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots
Reason: The most PROFITABLE wagering oppertunity on this Sunday's Super Bowl is on the TOTAL, it's backed by my Exclsuive Situation that's 100% PERFECT at 8-0 since the 1992 NFL season- It HAS NOT LOST in 15 seasons!!!
Of course, you'll also want some action on the winning side, so I'm laying with the Patriots. Due to the NY Giants 10-1 road record and impressive victories over the Cowboys and Packers, the line on the Big Game is very reasonable...it could have easily been more then 2 TDs if things went slightly different. Toss in the fact that New England is 35-18 ATS after a game in which they allowed 14 points or less behind Head Coach Bill Belichick.
7* Play On New England
Mike Neri Sports - Late Service
THREE STAR: New England -12
THREE STAR: OVER 54
David Singh
5 unit NFL Patriots/Giants UNDER 27 for the 1st Half
THE ATS SUPER BOWL TOMORROW
4 New England - 12
3 Teaser NE -6 and Over 47 1/2
ATS FINANCIAL
4 Over 53 1/2 NE/Giants
ASA
PLAY ON: NE Over 54