Razor Sharp Sports
Each and every year the “Big Game” seems to get bigger. The Super Bowl Hype starts as soon as the match-ups are set. For two straight weeks you listen and watch as sports experts break down the game from every angle. Another thing about having two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl is the added time the Sports Books have to come up with Proposition Bets for the Super Bowl.
This year, The Hilton Casino Sports Book is claiming to have the most Prop Odds of anyone in Las Vegas. It would be hard to argue, as you can get a print out of 54 pages full of wild and wacky props. You can bet on things like the coin toss and who will have the first turnover of the game, to the crazy wagers like the Over/Under for length of the National Anthem (Sung by Jordin Sparks). For added Super Bowl trivia, Jordin Sparks was the winner of last year’s American Idol and is also the daughter of Former NY Giants Defensive Back Phillipi Sparks. By the way, the time for the National Anthem is set at 1:42, if you care to bet on the length with a friend. You could also wager on who will have more this Sunday – Randy Moss catches or Tiger Woods birdies. I have taken a look at some of these props and have come up with a couple for you to take a look at. The first couple go together.
Take Laurence Maroney UNDER 81½ yards rushing (-120) and take Kevin Faulk UNDER 3 rushing attempts (-110) for the game.
The reasoning behind these two is weather! The Super Bowl is being played in a dome this year, and it gives the Patriots ideal conditions for their offense that was so effective during the early parts of the year. Through the first half to ¾ of the season the Patriots offense didn’t worry about running the ball. Maroney rushed for 77 yards or more just once in the Patriots first 13 games. He also carried the ball more than 15 times twice during that time. Faulk didn’t get the ball handed to him early in the season. He may touch the ball 6-8 times, but more than likely they will be on passes and screens. Here's another prop to take a look at.
Take the Giants to have 3 punts first in the game. (-240).
This is a higher line, but it should be easy $$. Only four times during the regular season has Patriot punter Chris Hanson punted more than 3 times for the entire game. Three of those four came in games with bad weather. Hanson has punted just 5 times in the two playoff games combined. As for the Giants’ Jeff Feagles, he has punted an average of 5 punts per game all season. He has at least 3 punts in 18 of the Giants 19 games, including 15 punts in the Giants three playoff games.
Next up is to take the Giants to use the first timeout of the game (-120).
If you watch the way Eli Manning, Kevin Gilbride and the Giants run their offense, it always seems as they are running out of time to get a play ran. This was very obvious in the NFC Championship Game. Now add some more pressure along with the veteran defense of the Patriots messing with Eli’s mind, and you know you will be seeing an early walk to the sidelines by the younger Manning.
The final prop I have for you is to answer NO to the question, “Will there be a scoreless quarter in the game? (-500).
This is another line that is awful high, but don’t look at it as a wager, look at it as getting 20% on your investment for just three hours work. Bet you can’t find interest at a bank like that. Heck, my interest rates on my credit cards aren’t even that bad! The New England Patriots have only been involved in three scoreless quarters though their 18 games this season. Ironically, two of the three came against the worst team in football, the 1-15 Miami Dolphins. When the Pats and Giants got together on week 17, there was at least two scores in each quarter, with double-digits being scored in all four.
AAA
New York Giants at New England Patriots - Giants +12 -110
Note: This is the longest I have ever made to make a Super Bowl Pick and I have done that for a number of reasons. First and foremost were some personal issues with a death in the family, along with a Flu Bug that got me down for a while. But the primary reason why I have waited is because this is one of the toughest one's to handicap that I have seen in many years. I am not going to fill your head with statistical information because that is not what this game is all about. The Super Bowl is a different animal than any other game this year and it has to looked at as such. The team that is going to win Sunday is the one that executes the best and it is as simple as that. I believe that team will be the Giants.
We have watched the Patriots have a marvalous year and they have done so in undefeated fashion. That is an incredible accomplishment and they have felt the pressure of winning greatly over the last 8 to 10 games played. While they have responded to that pressure well enough to win, they have had some scares along that road, and they have had some very close victories. Without going over each "Scare" you know the games I am talking about and it is evident to me that this team is not God. Certainly one of those games were against these Giants in a 38-35 win at New York. Statistically over the last 10 played, they were marginally better than their opponents and in 5 of those, they were outrushed during the course of the game. One of those was to these New Yorksters, and therein lies the primary reason why I will be grabbing the points. We thought the retirement of Kiki Barber would hurt New York, but up steps Brandon Jacobs, who has been a tough guy to stop and gives the Giants a well needed running game that all teams need to compete in this league. This 265 lb mountain of a man is capable of breaking the big one, but is also a solid runner inside, and able to get the tough yards. With him the Giants have the 3rd best rushing offense in the NFL. They also have a defense that rivals that of their opponents Sunday. These two things are the reason why New York is an amazing 10-1 on the road this year and that is almost as noteworthy as what NE has done this year. This shows me that they can win under adversity and they do the right things needed to be right where they are, playing for the NFL Title.
Oddsmakers do not agree, and that is going to work to our benefit in this game. While the Pats must win to have a successful season, the Giants only need to show up. That is a psychological advantage for us and our team because they have been bombarded the last 2 weeks with media telling us how New England is just too good to beat. Eli Manning scares the shit out of me sometimes, and if he has a bad day, as he has been known to have, we might be toast. As long as he does not lose this game by himself, the points should hold up for us with NYG, who has good enough D, good enough running and offensive line play to make it happen. Hopefully Eli is getting good advice from his Dad and his brother. Archie Manning grew up about 10 miles from where I did and I was able to get a photo taken of the Young Manning boys standing outside their Grandma's House when they were I believe 10 and 6 years old. I got it at an Estate Sale for 50 cents at the house where Archie grew up. I will be placing that above the Big Screen Sunday and I will have to grab the overinflated points in this one. Hopefully we will have our 7th straight Super Bowl Win.
ASA Football
PLAY ON: ASA Over 54, NY Giants vs. New England
We have a very nice starting point when attempting to make a prediction on what will happen Super Bowl Sunday. That starting point is to simplify things and take a look at what happened when these two teams faced each other just one month ago. That should give us a fairly good barometer of what we can expect on Sunday. That game ended with the Patriots winning 38-35. That’s 73 total points. Nearly a full 20 points more than the posted total for this Sunday. That game stood at 51 at the end of the third quarter and went over Sunday’s posted total of 54 with more than 11 minutes to go in the game. Keep in mind that was in windy Giants stadium where the temperature was just above 40 degrees. The controlled environment on Sunday in the dome should only help things. In that New England win to end the regular season, Brady shredded the Giant secondary for 356 passing yards. That was also the game that Eli Manning began to resemble his older, more heralded brother throwing for 251 yards and 4 TD’s. Neither team was able to run the ball effectively (Pats had 44 yards and Giants had 79) which bodes well for more passing again in the rematch. We know Belichick will design an offense that takes advantage of his opponent’s weakness. That would be the Giants pass defense. New York was the 8th best rush defense in the NFL this year allowing just 97 YPG. Belichick knows he can pass on the G-Men so don’t expect him to beat his head against a wall trying to run the ball. Our reports from Arizona tell us not to be at all surprised if the Pats run a no-huddle offense with 5 wides and no running backs. Look for that on Sunday. Much will be made of the fact that after putting up huge numbers the first half of the season, the Pats offense has fallen off a bit. After scoring almost 40 PPG their first 9 games they have put up “just” 32 PPG their last 9. However a close look reveals that the temperature has not topped 45 degrees at game time in ANY of their last 9 games. Thus, weather has obviously been a huge factor down the stretch. Now they finally get to play in 70 degree controlled climate with no wind. And now they’ve had two weeks to implement a game plan. You can bet New England will keep the scoreboard flashing this Sunday. That means in order to keep pace, the Giants will also have to put up some serious points. We expect New England to get ahead and New York will have to do whatever they can to keep up in this game. This one at least gets into the 60’s. Take the over.
FREE PROP BETS:
First New England touchdown: Ben Watson (9:1) – The Patriots are sending five offensive players to the Pro Bowl, not including Wes Welker, which means tight end Benjamin Watson is often overlooked. With much of the coverage focus going toward Randy Moss and Welker, Watson is often left with one-on-one coverage and he has capitalized. He’s tallied eight total touchdowns this year, including two in the playoffs, and is one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets in the red zone. Seven of his eight touchdowns have come from nine yards out or closer so you can be sure that Brady will be looking his way down near the goal line.
UNDER 1 Touchdown Greater than 47.5 yards – The percentages show that there is a very slim chance that there will be a touchdown scored of greater than 47 yards. New England has played 18 games this year and only seven of those games featured a touchdown of more than 47 yards, or just 38.9 percent of its games. New York has played 19 games this year and only nine of those games featured a touchdown of more than 47 yards, or just 47.4 percent of its games. Additionally, the Patriots have scored 75 touchdowns this year with just 11, or 14.7 percent, coming from more than 47 yards. The Giants have scored 44 touchdowns this year with just seven, or 15.9 percent), coming from more than 47 yards. The percentages strong suggest that this game will not see a touchdown of more than 47 yards.
OVER 44.5 Longest Made Field Goal – Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes was very nearly the goat when he missed two fourth-quarter field goals in New York’s win over Green Bay in the NFC Championship. He came through in overtime, though, nailing a 47-yarder in porous weather conditions. That should’ve been expected as Tynes was a perfect 8-for-8 from 40-49 yards out this year. He’s made 27-of-33 (81.8 percent) overall this year and will have his confidence back after hitting that game winner. New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski isn’t as well known as his predecessor Adam Vinatieri and he’s hardly the focal point of the Patriots’ high-scoring offense. He’ll have more than a few opportunities in this game and he has proven more than capable of hitting from deep. He has connected on 21-of-24 (87.5 percent) of his attempts this year and is 6-of-10 from 40 or more yards in his career. Both kickers are extremely accurate and both will get ample opportunities in this game. Also, with this game being played in a dome, weather won’t be a factor. There will be at least one field goal of greater than 44 yards in the Super Bowl. Take the over.
Point Trains
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-12) over New York Giants
Rating: 3 units
NEW ENGLAND (-) over New York at 6:30 pm EST The mere idea that the Giants can upset the Patriots in this game is absolutely ridiculous. Countless “experts” have predicted a Giants upset in Super Bowl XLII, which has only made a hungry New England team even hungrier. For whatever reason, people are starting to doubt the undefeated Patriots, which have given this game even better value. The line has fallen to -12 after opening at -14 and could continue to fall. New England has history in its sights and won’t let up until it has been set. Some will point to the regular season finale between these teams as a testament to how close these teams are in relation to ability. That game was not a true indicator of how this game will play out. First, it was in New York in less than favorable conditions. The Super Bowl is on a neutral field in ideal weather conditions. Look at New England’s season and you’ll see its most impressive numbers coming in the first half of the season when the weather was its best. The Patriots averaged 41.4 ppg through their first 8 games and could very well reach that mark in this game. Another major factor in this game will be the experience edge that New England owns. This will be the fourth Super Bowl in 7 years for the Pats with many of the core players remaining intact. The Giants, from top to bottom, have very little experience in a game of this magnitude. The biggest difference comes at the quarterback position. New York QB Eli Manning may have proven some of his doubters wrong over the last month but he still pales in comparison to New England’s Tom Brady. New England HC Bill Belichick and this Patriots team is one that, when given two weeks to prepare, is practically unbeatable. Few, if any, coaches game plan like Belichick and he will have his team well-prepared for this contest. New England went to the Super Bowl three times in the previous six years and left with the title each time. This game will be no different. Ride with the Patriots as they finish off their undefeated run.
Prop Bets OVER 10.5 yards Ahmad Bradshaw longest run: Bradshaw has come on like gangbusters down the stretch, averaging 5.6 ypc in his last four games. New England has struggled against the scat-back type of backs this year and that’s exactly what Bradshaw brings to the table.
2nd Half (- ½ points) +115: Eight of the last nine Super Bowls have seen more points scored in the second half than the first half. Teams often come out nervous for this game and settle down after halftime, which has led to more second-half points. That will again be the case in this one.
OVER 6.5 tackles Gibril Wilson: Wilson, New York’s starting safety, is second on the Giants in tackles despite missing three games this year. He tallied 7 or more tackles in 10 of the 15 games he played, including 7.3 tpg in the playoffs. New England’s pass-happy offense will give him plenty of opportunities to make tackles
Winning Way Sports
NFL - 3.5 units on New York Giants +13 (-110)
NFL - 3.5 units on New York/New England Over 53 (-110)
Super Bowl XLII Props (BodogLife.com):
NFL Prop - 1 unit on Eli Manning's Total Passing Yards? [Over 225.5 passing yards] (-120)
NFL Prop - 1 unit on Eli Manning's First Pass of the game will be? [Complete] (-150)
NFL Prop - 1 unit on Will Eli Manning throw an interception? [NO] (+250)
NFL Prop - 1 unit on Tom Brady's Longest Completion? [Under 47.5 yards] (-120)
NFL Prop - 1 unit on In which half will Tom Brady throw more TD Passes? [2nd Half + OT] (-120)
Michael Cannon
100 Dime
GIANTS
Take the points with the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.
This is too many points for the Patriots to be laying. I know they have the record-setting offense and they’re undefeated, but this isn’t the Miami Dolphins they’re playing in Week 7, this is the NFC champion New York Giants.
A Giants team that just happened to set an NFL record themselves by becoming the first team to win 10 road games in a single season. A team that just happened to go on a run through the playoffs after battling New England in the regular season finale.
The Giants remind me an awful lot of another team that happened to get hot at the right time and rolled through the playoffs, winning every game on the road…the Pittsburgh Steelers of 2005.
There are a lot of similarities between the two, and as you recall the Steelers used that momentum to win Super Bowl XL over the NFC’s top-seeded Seattle Seahawks.
Now I’m not saying New York is going to pull off the outright win here, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
What you have to consider is what their chances are of doing it, and that’s how I came to my conclusion that the points were the easy play here.
The Giants have the ability to get pressure on Tom Brady with their front four, allowing the linebackers and safeties to help out with the underneath game the Patriots love to use.
Now, Randy Moss is a weapon that’s been taken away from Brady so far during the playoffs, and if the Giants can use free safety James Butler to help out with over the top coverage, then the Giants can be successful defensively tonight.
Brady has done a good job of not getting impatient and forcing the deep ball to Moss, so the Giants have to stay disciplined and not allow any YAC when the Patriots’ QB dumps it off underneath.
Offensively the Giants have gotten to the big dance courtesy of Eli Manning’s maturation throughout the playoffs. He hasn’t turned the ball over and he has to continue that pattern tonight.
The Giants can keep the Patriots defense honest by running Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, which will keep the pressure off Manning. But I truly believe Manning is more than capable of stepping it up tonight and leading this offense when they need him the most.
It’s funny, but Manning has gotten better with addition by subtraction. More specifically, the retirement of Tiki Barber and the injury to Jeremy Shockey.
Eli no longer has to worry about appeasing any egos here. He can play his game and lead this offense without worrying about getting the ball so many times to those two.
As a result, the Giants are playing better as a team.
The Patriots keep on winning, but the pressure of completing an undefeated season looks like it’s taking its toll on them. Since about Week 12, each opponent has given the Patriots everything they could handle, and their margin of victory has been shrinking as a result.
New England has failed to cover seven of its last eight games, including the playoffs.
The Giants, conversely, have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight including the postseason.
This line is just too inflated in my opinion, and if you go back through New England’s history in the Super Bowl, you’ll find they’ve won all three by three points each time.
Expect another close one tonight, as the Giants stay well within the number and give New England a scare.
5 Dime Bonus
GIANTS MONEYLINE
Yes, I’m going to take a small chance here. At this price, why not?
Be sure you bet this accordingly. Don’t go crazy putting a lot down on this play.
This is designed for a maximum payout at a small, small cost.
With the moneyline at about +400 for the Giants, let’s take a chance at scoring a big return should the Giants pull off the upset.
Take the Giants on the moneyline as your 5 dime bonus bet.
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
The Giants
A few number to note
Patriots are 2-8 ATS their last 10
Their average margin of victory fell from 25.5 ppg top 12.2 in the last half of the season
The Giants won ten straight road games going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread by +83.5 points in that time away from NY.
Bellichick is 15-3 SU (12-0 as chalk) but only 9-8-1 ATS in the playoffs
And 7-11 under in the playoffs
He is 13-1 SU when the posted otal is 49 or higher
He is also 36-15 SU 30-19-2 ATS agaionst thr NFC
14-5 if of an ATS loss and 25-10 SUATS if they scored less than 28 in their previous game
Coughlin is 6-2 ATS as an 11 plus point underdog and 17-11 off a straight up dog win(6-1 SUATS last 7)
He is also 8-8 SU and 9-4-2 ATS against undefeated teams
Brady is 100-25 SU and 76-45-4 ATS(but only 11-11 as a double digit favorite)including a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post season
Eli Manning as a starter is 32-27 SU and 35-24 ATS but 19-9-1 away from home
Also, he is 29-12-1 in gamwes after they score more than 17
Super Bowl facts to ponder
Super Bowl favorites are 9-3 SU but only 4-6-2 the last 12 years
The last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-11-1 ATS
Teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU and 21-2-1 ATS
Teams who score less than 20 points 0-23 SU and 3-19-1ATS
Since 1980 teams who won a playoff game in OT are 5-10 SU and 7-8ATS in the net game including 0-2 SU ATS if the next game was a SB
Nelly Comp
One prop bet that looks solid is NE wideout Jabar Gaffney Over 2½ catches in today's big game. Expect the Patriots to operate a lot in spread formations and open it up for Gaffney.
We expect the New Patriots to spread out the offense and run many plays in five wide receiver sets. Obviously Randy Moss and Wes Welker will get a lot of attention leaving some of the less-heralded receivers likely to benefit.
Super Bowl Prop: Gaffney Over 2½
Jabar Gaffney averaged over 3.5 receptions per game in the last six games of the regular season and has 26 catches in his past five playoff games. The former Florida Gator now in his sixth NFL season, Gaffney had 36 catches on the year, five of them going for scores and four of those touchdowns coming in that six-game stretch at season's end.
Gaffney Over 2½ Receptions -130
Bryan Leonard
Kevin Boss Over 2 Receptions
NY TE Kevin Boss over 2 receptions: Boss is a rookie, but he's been forced to start replacing star Jeremy Shockey. And he's played well, both blocking and catching passes. Tight end is always a great safety valve for a quarterback and the Patriots are second in the NFL in sacks, knowing how to bring pressure. Boss had 4 receptions when these teams met in Week 17. The Giants had only 79 yards rushing in that game and the Pats are likely to take away their running game again. A more wide open tempo means the Giants will have to pass more, especially if they get behind, as 12-point dogs are expected to. Play TE Kevin Boss OVER 2 Receptions.
Redzone Sports Props
Welker Over 7 Catches
Welker Over 75 Yards Receiving
Manning Over 191 Yards Passing
Brady Over 274 Yards Passing
Players of America
New England Patriots -12 (50 Units)
The New York Giants are officially the NFC Conference Champions for this season after capping off an incredible end with a huge win in Green Bay in freezing cold weather almost two weeks ago on Sunday. I know right off the bat that everyone is going to jump on the Giants in this game because of their 38-35 loss to these same Patriots in the final regular season game of the year but betting based on that would be a huge mistake because how many times do you see return matches be as close or as blowout-ish as the first ones? Almost never. The Giants are in incredible form ever since their come from behind win over the Bills late in the season and I don't think anyone thought that they could walk into Tampa Bay to steal a win, walk into Dallas to steal a win and walk into Green Bay and steal a win. I don't think any of those teams had more than 2-3 home losses all season. So the Giants are now an incredible 10-1 AWAY FROM HOME THIS SEASON and they have gone 10-1 ATS in those very same games. So you must wonder how one can fade this team under these circumstances but its not tough because looking back on their season, the Giants (prior to the playoffs), played on the road and beat Buffalo (non playoff team), Philadelphia (non playoff team), Chicago (non playoff team), Detroit (non playoff team), Miami (non playoff team), Atlanta (non playoff team) and last but not least Washington (playoff team). So before coming into the playoffs the Giants had beat only playoff team on the road. I have a feeling some of their momentum is gone and that's going to be a huge issue for this team. The Giants come into this game averaging 23.2 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 325.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. What people tend to underestimate is how well the Patriots have played on the defensive side of things this season having allowed only 17.0 points per game this season and having allowed only 293.0 total yards of offense per game on the year and 5.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Giants are going to need both RB Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to be at their best in this game as the team has average 130.2 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. We all know that New England has had problems stopping the run but if the Giants go down early I don't see how running the ball is going to get them anywhere. New England has allowed only 97.6 rushing yards per game this season and allowed 4.4 yards carry in those games. In the air, QB Eli Manning has waited for this for quite some time and you can bet your bottom dollar he is going to be nervous. Manning has completed 56.3% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 3336 total passing yards, 23 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. He is going up against this New England defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.6% of their passes on the season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt and that is exactly what they need to keep it at. The Patriots are just as good as the Giants when it comes to the pass rush as they average 2.7 sacks per game this season and are facing an offensive line that has allowed 1.8 sacks per game on the season. I also like the fact that the Pats have a bunch of playmaking aggressive guys in their secondary as they have picked off 1.2 passes this season which could be a huge problem for Eli when he faces them for the second time this season after looking brilliant the first time out. I would love to say that the Giants have gone without too many fumbling problems this season but they have fumbled the ball 1.6 times per game and any type of mistake like that is really going to be a big problem in this game because the Super Bowl is all about who can make the bigger plays. The Giants have not exactly been all that good when it comes to third down conversions this season as they have managed to convert only 41.6% of their chances on the year and that is going to be a problem again this Patriots defense that has allowed their opponents to complete only 33.5% of their third down chances on the season. If you are going to win the biggest game of them all you need to be good in the Red Zone and the Giants have now scored touchdowns in 56.1% of their Red Zone entries this season which doesn't bode well for them seeing how New England has allowed opponents to score touchdowns 55.3% of the time once entering the Red Zone. The key to this game for this offense is going to be how fast they can get back into the groove that they had at the end of the season. Its never easy starting from scratch after two weeks off and getting back into the motions is very difficult. Eli Manning is no Peyton Manning and that has me concerned because he lacks the big game experience that guys like Brady and Manning have playing in AFC Championship Games or Super Bowl Games. I think the offense is going to stutter terribly if the Patriots come out swinging and if the Patriots take a big lead by the half they lights are just not coming back on. The Patriots have played decent defense all season and that's all that really matter.
The New England Patriots thought they had it all, they have the perfect 16-0 record on the season, they are now the best team to ever play the game of American Football but you and me and everyone all know that this season will not be complete if this team does not bring home the Super Bowl on Sunday. Nothing matters unless you bring home that ring and nothing matters unless you win the one game that actually means something for once. Now the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl did not come without event as it was announced that QB Tom Brady could possibly have some kind of broken foot or broken bone in his foot as he was seen walking around with a cast boot on his foot but it has not been confirmed as nothing more than precautionary measures for his ankle problem that has been coming on and off all season. This injury should not hamper the teams chances at all and I don't see why Brady would be affected by this. Now looking back on how the Pats did on the road compared to how they did at home (ATS wise that is), it seems like they played with a lot less pressure away from home this season where they went 5-3 ATS on the year and where odds makers never really gave them enough credit in those games. I know its really tough for some of you to back a team that is now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and that has not even covered the spread one single time this post-season but I'm telling you that the two weeks off are going to have made all the difference in the world with this Patriots team and if the Giants are not ready for what is coming, this game is going to be done by the time we hit the half, I'm sure you've heard me say that before. New England comes into this game averaging a whopping 35.6 points per game this season and no matter what they have done this post season , there is no doubt in my mind that the Patriots are going to match this average and they are going to probably score more than that. In those games, the Pats also managed to average a whopping 407.2 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play which is good enough if their defense can hold off the G-Men, unlike the final week of the season. The Giants are actually a lot better than people assume on the defensive side of things as they have allowed only 21.2 points per game this season and have allowed 303.2 total yards of offense per game in those games for 5.2 yards per play which is pretty damn good. The Patriots running game is important but its not key to the win and cover here as they average only 119.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry while the Giants have managed to hold teams to only 95.1 rushing yards per game on the season and 3.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Tom Brady is the master of Super Bowl Games having never actually lost in the Super Bowl and although that is not about to change this time around, I would like to point out that experience of playing in more than one of these games is priceless. Brady has completed an impressive 68.9% of his passes this season for 4806 passing yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 50 TOUCHDOWN PASSES and only 8 INTERCEPTIONS!!!. Now that is some incredible stuff for a QB who also had a QB Rating of 117.2 on the season. The Giants secondary needs to show up for this game or it will get ugly in a hurry as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.8% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt which is plenty of space and time for Tom Brady to get the job done. Brady has been well protected all season as the offensive line has been great and they have allowed only 1.3 sacks per game. That's the best news Patriots backers could hear is that the O-Line is well rested because they are going to have their hands full with a Giants pass rush that is the best by far in the NFL (by at least 10 sacks) and that is averaging a whopping 2.9 sacks per game on the season. I would not say that it has been easy for Giants opponents to move the ball through the air because it hasn't but the opportunities are there and I am sure that Tom Brady is going to take full advantage of the situation. Unlike the Giants, the Patriots have not had and do no have a problem holding onto the fumble as they have lost only 15 fumbles all season and that is probably one of the lowest margins or amounts in the NFL. We all know how aggressive the pass rush is and how aggressive some of these defenders are but the Patriots just plain and simply don't make big mistakes and that's not changing here. What makes the Patriots once again the more enticing wager in this game is the fact that they are converting a whopping 49.1% of their third down chances this season and going up against a Giants team that has now allowed opponents to convert 37.1% of the time. Moving onto the Red Zone attack, the Patriots have the best Red Zone offense in the NFL as they have scored touchdown in a crazy 69.5% of the times they have entered the Red Zone. That is definitely not a good sign for the Giants who have allowed their opponents to score touchdowns in 60.0% of their Red Zone entries this season. You know there is really not much else to be said about this team other than they are amazing, they have the best offense in all of football, this is the biggest game of most of their careers. The offense should have no problems moving the ball and picking apart the Giants and as long as there are no significant injuries, I say this game is going to be a blowout. This is a team that is going to score close to 40 points every single time you see them and if they can get that going in this game, there is no chance that the Giants are going to pull the office stung that got us our doc killed. LMAO! I expect this offense to be pure Bill Bellichik and his mastermind stuff which is why I am betting on the guys and the coaches who have already won Super Bowl wins with this game. New England is here because they mean business and the Giants just don't have the defense to keep up in this game. I say blowout in this game and I say yet another boring super bowl.
This is the way I look at this game guys. If you watched TV the last two weeks, if you followed experts on message boards, if you read the newspapers, if you bought some analysis online, if you filled out your Super Bowl props and picks sheet and if you are watching this football game on Sunday, the odds are that everyone is on the Giants assuming that they can do exactly what they did the first time against the Patriots in that season ending game that allowed New England to go a perfect 16-0 on the season. However, what you have to understand about that first meeting was that the Giants had absolutely nothing to lose, they were loose, they were having fun and they were hoping for the best to come out of that game and it did. The Patriots on the other hand had been fighting week in and week out the entire season to keep their perfect record and we know how banged up they were and they were most definitely very vulnerable the first time against these Giants. Now...they are coming off a full two weeks of rest, preparation and practice where they most definitely went over tons and tons of game tape from the first meeting and I don't think there is much more to argue about here other than the fact that the Patriots have more experience, they are the better team, they are not going to have a perfect season and lose this game. I love that everyone is on the Giants and that the Giants are the flavor of the month because its rare that Super Bowl Games are close and this one should be no different this year. You cannot possibly think that the Pats are going to revert to the close type of games they played in the second half of the season and if you ask me this game is going to be out of hand by the time we hit the half and the Patriots are going to sail to the best overall season in professional sports history. They deserve it and betting on the Giants to keep things close is a huge mistake in this game.
Trend of the Game: New England is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games played on natural grass.
New England 42, NY Giants 13
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use UN: SUPER PW BOWL
NICK PARSON: OVER GIANTS, PROPS; MANNING VS BRADY 1ST 1/2 PASSING; MANNING +30.5 YARDS, LAURENCE MARONEY- UNDER 81.5 RUSHING YARDS
TEDDY COVERS: PATRIOTS, OVER PATRIOTS. PROPS; BRADY OVER 35.5 ATTEMPTS, WELKER OVER 7 RECEPTIONS, K FAULK OVER 32.5 RECEIVING YARDS, OVER 6.5 DIFFERENT PATRIOTS TO CATCH BALL, JACOBS +23.5 VS MARONEY RUSH YARDS, MARONEY UNDER 20.5 CARRIES, GIANTS +12.5 RUSHING YARDS VS PATRIOTS, GIANTS MORE PENALTY YARDS, GIANTS LONGER KICKOFF RETURN, PATRIOTS LONGER PUNT RETURN
DOC: 4 GIANTS, PROPS; 1 FIRST SCORE IS FG/SAFETY, 1 BURRESS OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS, 1 JACOBS SCORE 1ST GAME TD
ROB FERRINGO: 3 GIANTS, 2 UNDER GIANTS, PROPS; 1 GIANTS MORE PENALTY YARDS, 1/2 GIANTS SCORE SHORTEST FG, JACOBS OVER 12.5 RECIEVING YARDS, FIRST SCORE IS FG/SAFETY
ALLEN EASTMAN: 4 UNDER PATRIOTS, 3 TEASER- PATRIOTS/UNDER PATRIOTS, PROPS; BRADY WILL THROW AT LEAST 1 INT- YES -115, BRADSHAW OVER 40.5 RUSH YARDS
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER: 4 UNDER PATRIOTS, 3 PATRIOTS, PROPS; 6 KOBE BRYANT POINTS, REBOUNDS AND ASSISTS +9.5 OVER PATRIOTS/GIANTS TOTAL POINTS FOR GAME, UNDER 14.5 4TH QUARTER
BOB BALFE: PATRIOTS
PRO INFO: 6 GIANTS
MR A
New England Patriots -12
New York will get another chance at ending the Patriots' path to perfection. New England won 38-35 in its final game of the regular season, rallying from a 12-point second-half deficit against the Giants. The rolling Giants have won 10 straight road games, going 9-1 against the spread, including three playoff road victories against division winners (Tampa, Dallas and Green Bay), but the Giants secondary is vulnerable and will be facing football's best pass offense led by Tom Brady.
The Patriots are a better team and maybe the best team the NFL has thus far ever seen. Expect Manning to make mistakes when the Patriots start pulling away. New England will make a statement and close out the season with a strong and impressive effort.
GINA
New York Giants (13-6) vs. New England Patriots (18-0)
I tried to convince myself that the hot Giants with a convincing playoff record would make this a close battle and possibly win. However, the Brady bunch is a superior team and has been here before. Look for Brady to connect with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk and tear the Giants' secondary. The Patriots make history.
New England Patriots - 12
Cajun-Sports
Comments: The Patriots are one game away from the first 19-0 season in NFL history, with the Giants being the final hurdle in Super Bowl XLII on Sunday. The teams met just five weeks ago in the final game of the regular season where New York almost spoiled New England’s plans for a perfect season. The Giants had a double-digit second-half lead before falling, 38-35, but easily covering the double-digit point-spread. While the game is viewed by many as being the final step toward New England's coronation, a red-hot Giants team figures to have something to say about the matter. New York is in the Super Bowl for the first time in seven years thanks to consecutive playoff road wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Packers, and the Giants' 10 straight wins away from home this season have set a new NFL record. New York QB Eli Manning has undergone a revelation marked by sound decision-making and a limited number of mistakes. Manning has completed 62% of his passes and not committed a turnover in New York's three postseason games. Manning's outstanding run actually began with a strong outing against New England in Week 17, when he went 22-of-32 for 251 yards and threw FOUR TD passes. Since an interception thrown by Manning late in that game, the Giants offense has gone 33 possessions and 194 plays without a turnover. This will be a huge factor in today’s game; if New York can limit turnovers they have a legitimate shot at winning the biggest game of them all. New England has a talented defensive line, but ranked near the bottom of the league with 4.4 yards allowed per carry during the regular season. The Patriots also have a pair of highly-decorated linebackers in the middle of their four-man group, with former Pro Bowlers Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau occupying those places. We expect the Giants "thunder-and-lightning" backfield of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to be effective and have success against this Patriots rush defense. These are the key areas for both teams can Eli Manning continue his excellent play and can the Patriots defense stop the rushing attack of Jacobs and Bradshaw? The Patriots have the edge in most of the personnel categories, but it's not a decisive edge on many counts. The Giants proved in December that they have the ability to make this a game, and with the way they are peaking, there’s no reason to believe they won’t make this game very competitive once again. New York is 6-0 ATS since Week 10 when playing with revenge and not favored by a TD or more, while the Patriots are on a 0-5 spread run vs. opponents playing with revenge. In fact, the Giants are on quite a spread run themselves, going 8-0 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points. New England is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. New York is also 9-0 ATS away from their home stadium when not favored by more than 9 points, to go along with their 10 straight SU victories on the road. We have a few technical situations that back our position on the Giants and they tell us that playoff underdogs of 3+ points off a Playoff SU win of less than 7 points allowing less than 28 points in their last game (not as a home underdog) are a strong 15-0 ATS since 1998, beating the spread by nearly 10 ppg on average. This technical situation is already 2-0 in this year’s playoffs, active for both of our STAR SELECTION WINNERS in the AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games two weekends ago. After making it to the Super Bowl with an underdog victory, teams have continued to play very well in recent seasons. Specifically, Super Bowl teams off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in their last game are 5-0 ATS since 2000 vs. opponents not favored off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in their last game, blasting the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average. Here is another strong technical situation that tells us to “Play ON” a Conference Championship/Super Bowl team off 2 playoff SU & ATS wins allowing less than 21 points in each of its last 2 games game vs. an opponent not favored off 2 playoff SU & ATS wins allowing less than 21 points in each of its last 2 games. Since 1989, these teams are 17-0-3 ATS, beating the spread by 2 TDs per game. Those numbers include New York’s qualify SU & ATS win at Green Bay for the NFC title. If we isolate this exact same situation to Super Bowls, we find that it has gone without a loss all the way to back to 1983. Since then, qualifying Super Bowl teams are 16-0-2 ATS, destroying the spread by more than 17 ppg on average! Sixteen of the 18 teams also won the game outright by a similar margin. Finally we have a technical situation that tells us to “Play ON” a Super Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 13 points) with the better ATS record in the current postseason (underdog if ATS records identical with only wins; favorite if ATS records identical with any losses/pushes). Since 1987, these teams are 16-0-2 ATS, covering the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. In last year’s Super Bowl, we played on the favored Colts, who had gone 3-0 ATS in the postseason over the Bears who went just 1-1 ATS in the playoffs. Indianapolis won and covered the spread, as did the Steelers the year before. Like the Giants this post-season, Pittsburgh went 3-0 SU & ATS leading up to the Super Bowl, winning 3 games on the road, while the Seahawks won 2 playoff games at home, just as the Pats have done this season. It wasn’t pretty, but the favored Steelers got the SU & ATS win over Seattle. We expect another very close game. The Patriots made several miracle escapes this season to keep their perfect record alive and it may take another miracle to pull this one off. The Giants should give them all they can handle and we won’t be surprised to see the G-men pull off what would be a monumental upset.
Play: 3* OVER 54.5
CEASAR SPORTS REPORT
SUPER BOWL SUNDAY
3* OVER
1* NY GIANTS
SUPER BOWL PROPS
Wes Welker over 6 1/2 receptions
B Jacobs to score a TD
B Jacobs over 55 1/2 rush yards
R Moss over 11 1/2 yards on 1st catch
M Vrabel total tackles over 4 1/2
T Brady TD in 2nd quarter
L Maroney pass catch over 1
Score in the 1st 7 minutes (YES)
P Burress 1st catch over 9 1/2 yards
Most penalty yards (GIANTS)