Psychic Sports Picks Members Area
SUPER BOWL SUNDAY
5 units NY Giants +12.5
WISEGUY
3 units OVER 54
SUPER BOWL PROPS
Each prop is valued at 1/2 unit
Will a Special Team or Defensive TD be scored - YES +150
Will either team score 3 unanswered times - NO +200
First score of the game will be Any other score +160
Last score of the game will be Any other score +150
First scoring Play in the game will be NY Giants - Field Goal +300
A score in first 6:01 mins of the 2nd Half - Yes -120
Team to commit the 1st Penalty - NY Giants -120
First Team to use a Time Out in game - NY Giants -120
Defense with more sacks +160
Which team will record first sack - NY Giants +100
Ron Meyer
Chalkboard.....Giants Under
Coaches Consensus.....Giants
Big Al
Computer Boys.....Patriots
RJ Bell
Prop #1: NO Overtime: (odds: minus-1400 or less)
First things first . . . when you have a good bet, dont worry about laying a big number its the way the pros bet . . . just make sure you dont bet so much that losing would be a huge deal cause any bet can lose.
Heres why its such a good bet: In 41 Super Bowls, there has never been an overtime game. Even more importantly, in the last 5 years about 6% of games have gone into overtime. Considering that a game with a line of -12 is less likely than an average game to go to OT its safe to say the odds about it happening are about 20-1 . . . so we are willing to lay 14-1.
Prop #2 NO Safety (odds: -1100 or less)
Same story great bet . . . dont be afraid of big odds but dont bet so much it will really hurt if we lose.
Last 5 years in the NFL theres been 77 safetys . . . thats about 6% of games. Tom Brady gets sacked less than the average QB, so assume chance is 5% in this game (about 20-1) . . . we are willing to lay 11-1 and be very happy.
Prop #3 Team that scores first will LOSE game (odds: +180 or more)
This has happened 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls . . . and if the Giants are lucky and score first (even a FG) we all now the way the Pats can storm back.
Prop #4 UNDER in the First Quarter (10.5 points)
Nerves and tendency to be conservative is inevitable in the Super Bowl. Also, this is the only game all year the balls are not given to the teams to prepare, which means they will be slick early. Note that Tom Brady was one of the strongest supporters of getting a chance to work the balls before the game so we can expect him to be affected. Proof of these concepts: There has not been a TD scored in the first quarter of 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls.
BEST BET: Randy Moss UNDER 5.5 receptions
Teams have decided not to be beat by him of late, and have kept the games close against the Pats. In two playoff games hes had just two receptions and no TDs. He may break a big one . . . but 6 catches will be hard to come by. Also, the public loves Moss, and loves to bet over so you know you are getting great value betting under
INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: NY GIANTS vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Play: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -12 (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -12 Automatic POD Promo: Winning 3 days in a row, Only Handicapper in the Nation to be at 60% in Basketball 2007-2008 at 78-50 (61%) after 128 Plays, Winning 2 of 2 days in February, 3rd winning week in a row secured Today, Winning 21 of 31 days in January (68%) (+24 units), 19-11-1 POD in January (63%), Winning 4 of 6 months and still haven't lost back to back months Ever, and haven't lost Back to back days since January 4th/5th. I wrote about this in a bit more detail in my blog research today but I bet based on principles and mat and it is tough to argue with the results. Each and every time that the public hounds an underdog I go against it. Think about it, time and time again, the Packers on the road against the Cowboys - public loves the Pack, I went with the Cowboys, the Jazz at home against the Mavs, public hounds the Mavs, I went with the Jazz - same thing when the Jazz were at home against the Spurs. This game is no different and following this math model it has gone 10-2 this season so why change simply because this game is called the "super bowl". The Patriots have had nearly 2 weeks to prepare for this game - there are very few teams that I know that can put together a game plan like the Patriots can. Do you really think it is that impossible for this team to win by 13 points against a Giants team that is very good - having won 10 outright in a row away from home - including 3 alone in this playoff season - seems too easy right?! Free money right?! Wrong. The Patriots dominated this team in the 4th quarter and they sewed up many kinks in the armor and will be more than ready today. Do not forget that this is still Eli Manning we are taking about here. I suspect this game to be relatively close at the end of the first half with the Pats leading by a touchdown or so and they are likely to pull away. This team is a team of destiny and I would not be surprised to see a score of 30-17. I know the Pats haven't covered many ballgames of late, but I think the public likely gets the shaft yet again here
R.J. Miller
GIANTS +12.5
.....Note that these teams played on another just a month ago (December 29th) at New England, and the Giants had the game won (on the road) through the 3rd quarter. The game was tied late in the 4th quarter, 35-35, and the Patriots managed to win by a field goal, 38-35. Playing here at Scottsdale ain't exactly a home field advantage for the Giants, but the Giants are a lot more used to playing here at this NFC city than are the Patriots. The crowd will be cheering for the underdog Giants.
Note that the Patriots struggled to beat the pitiful Ravens, at Baltimore, 27-24. They managed to beat the Colts at Indianapolis (24-20) only when Peyton Manning fumbled away the ball with less than a minute left. And they managed to squeak past the Eagles, 31-28, at home in New England....These guys are good, no doubt about that, but there's a certain amount of luck involved in this record of 18-0.
Note that the Giants this season rushed an average of 134 rushing yards per game while the Patriots rushed for an average of 116 yards per game. (Both teams allowed 98 yards per game.) That NFL team with the most rushing yards in a game wins the game more than 75% of the time. On December 29th, the Giants out-rushed the Patriots 79-44.
The key for the Giants to win this game is to keep Tom Brady to hell off the field. To do that, on offense, look for the Giants to use a rushing attack, or short passes, in order to keep their defense off the field. When the Giants' defense is on the field they must try to contain the Patriots' wide receivers, including Randy Moss, and the defensive line must try to hurry Brady's passing ability. Brady's ability to throw to his wide receivers is what this game will be all about.
O.C. Dooley
Prop Bets
SUPER BOWL PROPOSITIONS
"1 Unit" on amount of players to throw a pass OVER 2' (+210)
"1 Unit" on Giants to be first team to use coaches challenge (-115)