Super Bowl Stats and Trends: Numbers That Matter
By Marc Lawrence
When it comes to watching or wagering on the most popular football game in the world, the Super Bowl offers a veritable buffet of betting propositions to amateur and professional gamblers alike.
Why settle for picking just the winner of the game, when you can instead gorge on an array of offerings. Remember, though, while this may be the final meal offered this football season there is no need to blow your diet (bankroll) on any one game.
Here are a few stat and trend appetizers to ponder for Super Bowl XLIV:
Coin flip
While there is no handicapping the coin flip, it is one of the most popular Super Bowl betting props. Arguably because you can be a winner BEFORE the game begins.
That being the case, you might be interested in knowing the NFC has won the Super Bowl coin toss 12 straight years and 15 of the last 17 games. Tails has been the winning call in nine of the last 12 games.
Last year Pittsburgh called heads and it came up tails, extending the NFC streak to 12 in a row.
Planting a seed
The previous 14 Super Bowls involving two different seeds, the lower seed covered the spread 13 out of 14 occurrences.
Because this year’s game pairs both No. 1 seeds from each conference for the first time in 16 years, that stat will remain alive for at least another year.
Not so super favorites
Super Bowl chalk is 28-15 SU and 23-17-2 ATS, including 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS the last eight years.
Since 1980, Super Bowl favorites of seven or fewer points are 11-7 SU and 6-11-1 ATS, including 4-5 SU and 1-8 ATS if they were favored by eight points or less in their conference championship game and 5-7 SU and 2-9-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back home games.
Over/Under-whelming
Since 1985, the ‘OVER’ has delivered in 16 of 25 games.
Those who have bet the ‘OVER’ in the last five Super Bowls, though, have taken their lumps as the ‘UNDER’ has cashed in four of the last five years.
Miami nice
There have been nine Super Bowls in Miami. AFC teams hold the edge, going 6-3 SU and 5-3-1 ATS.
The average winning score of these games has been 28-18.
First and last
New Orleans makes its first Super Bowl appearance. First-time Super Bowl teams are 8-19 SU and 9-18 ATS.
Over the last 12 years there have been eight first-time teams. Only two of them (Baltimore and Tampa Bay) managed to win the game.
Criss-cross
Both quarterbacks have excelled in non-conference games in their NFL career.
Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning is 27-10 SU and 23-14 ATS against NFC opposition, including 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS when the Colts are coming off a win.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is 32-29 SU and 32-25-4 ATS all-time versus AFC opponents, including 13-7 SU and ATS when facing an AFC team that is off a SU and ATS win.
With the Saints, Brees is 9-7 SU and 10-6 ATS against AFC competition, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over the last two seasons.
Just the facts
- Teams who score 27 or more points in the Super Bowl are 24-1 SU and 21-3-1 ATS.
- Teams who score 20 points or fewer in the Super Bowl are 1-24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS.
- NFC teams are 18-11 SU and 17-10-2 ATS since 1980, including 7-1-1 ATS versus opponents with an .800 or better winning percentage.