Facts, figures and matchups for Super Bowl XLII
The New England Patriots seek a perfect season, but the New York Giants will have something to say about that Sunday afternoon.
FACTS
* Who: New England (18-0) vs.New York Giants (13-6)
* Patriots rushing offense vs. Giants rushing defense: The Patriots passing game gets all the attention, but running backs Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk have been the keys to their playoff run. Maroney has 244 yards rushing in two playoff games and the Patriots are averaging 147 yards on the ground in the postseason. Giants tackle Fred Robbins is the run stopper on a line more known for its pass rush. Middle linebacker Antonio Pierce heads a bruising linebacker crew that hits hard, but doesn't have a lot of speed. The Giants gave up 97.7 yards a game rushing during the regular season, but that's down to 83.6 in the postseason. Edge: Giants.
* Patriots passing offense vs. Giants passing defense: Tom Brady and Randy Moss put up the gaudy stats that made the Patriots the most prolific offensive team in NFL history with 589 points scored. They scored 50 of their 67 offensive touchdowns through the air. A key was an offensive line with three All-Pros that gave up only 24 sacks. Also, Faulk is an excellent pass-catcher out of the backfield and sure-handed Wes Welker tied for the league lead with 112 receptions. The Giants rely on a pass rush that led the NFL with 53 sacks. Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan must get quick pressure because the Giants' secondary is average. Edge: Patriots.
* Special teams: Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes has been solid this season, making 23 of 27 field-goal attempts, including all eight from more than 40 yards. New England's Steven Gostkowski made 21 of 24 attempts but doesn't have quite the range. Kick returners Ellis Hobbs of the Patriots and Ahmad Bradshaw of the Giants have nearly identical statistics, though Hobbs does have a return touchdown. Veteran Giants punter Jeff Feagles had only 28 of his 71 punts returned. New England punter Chris Hanson punted only 44 times all season and averaged 41.4 yards. Edge: Giants.
* Giants rushing offense vs. Patriots rushing defense: At 6 feet 4, 264 pounds, Giants running back Brandon Jacobs is a load. He's a power runner but also has speed to get outside, which is where he likes to go so he can bowl over defensive backs. The strength of the Giants offensive line is run blocking and the team averaged 134.2 yards rushing this season -- fourth in the NFL. Veteran linebackers Junior Seau and Mike Vrabel are good at reading plays and always seem to be in the right place at the right time. The Patriots held the Jacksonville Jaguars, the AFC's top rushing team, to 80 yards rushing in the divisional round. Edge: Giants.
* Giants passing offense vs. Patriots passing defense: Eli Manning has undergone a transformation in the playoffs, passing for four touchdowns without an interception. Top receiver Plaxico Burress is averaging 12.1 yards a catch in the postseason and his 6-5 1/2 height causes matchup problems. The Giants use a controlled passing attack, but Amani Toomer has the speed to go deep. Pro Bowl-bound cornerback Asante Samuel is one of the top man-to-man defenders in the league. Speedy Ellis Hobbs is also solid, but he's only 5-9, so is a liability against tall receivers such as Burress. Safety Rodney Harrison is as tough as they come.
Edge: Patriots.
* Coaching: Bill Belichick has a 15-3 postseason coaching record and is trying to become only the second coach to win four Super Bowls. He has led the Patriots to an 86-26 record since 2001 and has led his teams to at least the AFC championship game in four of the last five seasons. Tom Coughlin is making his first Super Bowl appearance, though he twice took the Jacksonville Jaguars to the AFC title game. He has a 103-89 career record, including 35-29 in four seasons with the Giants.
Edge: Patriots.
* Intangibles: The Patriots are looking to complete an undefeated season, which may give them extra confidence or cause extra pressure. They committed a league-low 15 turnovers this season. The Giants excel away from home and have won 10 consecutive road games. The Patriots defeated the Giants, 38-35, on Dec. 29. Edge: Patriots.
* Prediction: New England, 34-20.
latimes.com
Oddsmakers consider Bradshaw an X-factor
Now that the Super Bowl is finally here, it can't hurt for bettors to take a closer look at the last meeting between New England and the New York Giants.
The Patriots rallied from a 12-point third-quarter deficit at Giants Stadium to win, 38-35, in the final regular-season game for both teams. Quarterbacks Eli Manning and Tom Brady each had strong games and skilled players Randy Moss, Laurence Maroney and Plaxico Burress combined for five touchdowns.
But one player who did not play may have a key role in today's game and that's New York rookie running back Ahmad Bradshaw.
That fact has not gone unnoticed by many experienced bettors, who have factored in Bradshaw for many of their wagers on this year's Super Bowl.
"The Giants' winning percentage is highest when Bradshaw is the primary running back getting 20 carries," said Stephen Oh of AccuScore.com, which simulated today's game 10,000 times with a variety of scenarios.
"Bradshaw is worth around two points on the scoreboard so if the Giants are losing by 10 in the baseline, they lose by just eight with Bradshaw as primary back. Given the Patriots have won three Super Bowls, each by three points, you can see the value of even one additional point."
Although Bradshaw, who did not play against New England during the regular season because of a bruised leg, has carried the ball only 62 times in his career, he has averaged 5.7 yards per rush.
That's why oddsmakers consider him an X-factor for today's game.
At Bodoglife.com, Bradshaw is involved in 13 proposition bets, including: total rushing attempts, over 10.5 (-110) or under 10.5 (-120); total yards rushing, over 48.5 (even) or under 48.5 (-130); total yards rushing on first attempt, over 3.5 (-105) or under 3.5 (-125); player to score first touchdown for Giants, Bradshaw (6-1); and player who will record the longest single reception in the game, Bradshaw (20-1).
With the point spread for today's game at 12 points after opening on most boards at 14, the Giants have maintained an edge in bets at 67% of the action against the spread, according to theSpread.com's betting chart.
But at Wagerline.com, New York's support against the spread was at 60.87% (1,951 to 1,255) after hovering above 65% for most of the last two weeks.
latimes.com