Super Bowl XLIII opening line report
By Stephen Nover
LAS VEGAS – The Super Bowl is the one game oddsmakers set a number for the public because recreational money is going to outweigh wise-guy plays.
The key question is which team does the public back, Pittsburgh or Arizona?
The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants were divided between opening the Steelers -6.5 or seven. They decided on seven with a total of 46.5.
Dan O’Brien was one of the LVSC linesmakers who thought the opener should be 6.5 or even six.
“I was thinking seven at the beginning of last week,” he said. “But after watching Arizona beat another solid, all-around team, I was thinking seven would be an automatic take.”
The earliest betting action was on the Cardinals. Several offshore and Las Vegas places, including the Palms Hotel and Pinnacle, came down to 6.5 points.
The Steelers have always been a widely public team. Being the favorite isn’t going to hurt their betting appeal either. Recreational bettors tend to bet favorites.
Arizona hasn’t been a hit with gamblers, which is understandable since the Cardinals’ previous winning season was way back in 1984.
But the Cardinals have swayed a lot of skeptics with their three-game playoff run, knocking off Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia. The Cardinals should know the Steelers well since they have a bunch of former Steelers assistant coaches on their staff including head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant head coach Russ Grimm.
“Most of the time the public will bet the favorite,” said Jay Kornegay, race and sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton. “But from what I’ve seen a lot of people are jumping on the Cardinals’ bandwagon.”
The Hilton opened Pittsburgh -7. Kornegay said he wasn’t anxious to move off that number but was taking a wait-and-see attitude regarding a possible adjustment.
“We’re trying to project the popularity of the Steelers versus the appeal of the Cinderella team,” he said.
The Steelers have tradition, the NFL’s best defense and a comfort zone with bettors.
The Cardinals bring a fresh look and a much more exciting offense with big-play quarterback Kurt Warner and star wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.
A great defense against an exciting, pass-oriented offense made it a challenge to set an opening total. The Hilton’s number was the same as LVSC’s recommendation, 46.5. Several places were at 47 points.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the total climbed higher. Weather shouldn’t factor with Tampa as the venue. The public prefers to root for points rather than defense, so they usually bet over. O’Brien’s suggested opening total number was 47.5 points.
“It was a tricky total,” he said. “But Super Bowl inflation mitigates Pittsburgh’s defense.”
The last time Pittsburgh had a total above 39 was against San Diego Nov. 16, when the number was 42. The Steelers’ highest total occurred in Weeks 2 and 3 when it was 44 against the Browns and Eagles. The Steelers beat the Browns 10-6 and lost to the Eagles, 15-6.
Arizona has been one of the best over teams, going above the total in 68 percent of its games during the past three seasons. The Cardinals were 13-6 over/under this season. Pittsburgh went above the total in 10 of its 18 game including both playoff contests.
Steelers' O-Line vs. Cards' D-Line
By Brad Young
With two weeks between conference championship games and the Super Bowl, VegasInsider.com is stepping up once again to provide all the gaming aspects for Super Bowl XLIII. This column is going to focus on Pittsburgh’s offensive line against Arizona’s defensive front.
Most of the focus is usually on the quarterbacks and running backs, but games are won and lost in the trenches. Pittsburgh will win a record sixth Super Bowl title if the offensive line can create enough holes for the running game while also giving quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enough time to throw.
Arizona can complete its incredible Cinderella run if its defensive line can continue to play at a high level it has through the postseason. The Cardinals’ best chance at victory is to shut down the Steelers’ running attack and make the team one-dimensional. Arizona had exactly one playoff win before this postseason run during its 20 years in the desert, and the play of its defensive line could help this long-suffering franchise capture its first Super Bowl title.
Now let’s take a closer look at the Super Bowl XLIII war in the trenches between Pittsburgh’s offensive line and Arizona’s defensive line. To help us focus on this key matchup, I’ve enlisted the help of VegasInsider.com handicapper Jamie Tursini who has hit an incredible 71 percent of his pro football selections this season that includes a 43-17 record his last 60 selections.
Pittsburgh’s Offensive Line
Most teams have a chink in the armor, and Pittsburgh weakest point for the 2008 season has been its offensive line. The Steelers are in Super Bowl XLIII because of their top-ranked defense, overcoming an offense that ranked a disappointing 22nd in the league. Pittsburgh averaged just 21.7 points during the season, barely ahead of such teams as San Francisco (21.2) and Kansas City (18.2).
“The Steelers offensive line allowed 49 sacks during the regular season, and another five in their two playoff games,” noted Tursini. “They were great versus Baltimore, allowing just one sack while picking up the blitz all evening long.”
The Pittsburgh offensive line consists of center Justin Hartwig, right guard Darnell Stapleton, left guard Chris Kemoeatu, left tackle Max Starks, right tackle Willie Colon and tight end Heath Miller. The Steelers seemed to be digging out of a hole all season when Pro Bowl left tackle Alan Faneca signed as a free agent with the New York Jets.
The Steelers pride themselves on running the ball and stopping opponents’ ground game. While Pittsburgh was extremely successful in stopping the run, the team ranked 23rd during the regular season in rushing offense. The Steelers averaged 105.6 yards per contest, with an average of 3.7 yards per carry. Those numbers improved slightly during their two playoff games, rushing for an average of 108.5 yards in victories over San Diego and Baltimore.
Pittsburgh ranked 17th in passing yards because Roethlisberger didn’t have much time to throw. The five-year veteran threw 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions this season while completing 60 percent of his passes.
“The offensive line seems to be giving Roethlisberger plenty of time now that they are healthy,” said Tursini. “With running back Willie Parker healthy once again, that gives this offense more options.”
Arizona’s Defensive Line
Arizona went a modest 9-7 straight up and against the spread during the regular season, winning the weak NFC West Division. However, the Cardinals caught fire at just the right time by winning three games in a row SU and ATS to reach this stage. Recent history has shown us that it is not the best team during the regular season that wins the big game, but the team that is peaking at just the right time.
Arizona’s regular season defensive numbers are average at best, but the team has hit another gear in its run to Super Bowl XLIII. The Cardinals ranked 19th during the regular campaign by yielding 26.6 points per game and 331.5 yards.
“The Arizona defense only had 31 sacks during the regular season,” stated Tursini. “The Cardinals have produced seven sacks through three playoff games.”
Arizona was 22nd in the league in pass defense by surrendering 221.2 yards per contest. The rush defense was rated 16th during the regular season by giving up 110.2 yards a game. If those numbers would have remained the same during the postseason, the Cardinals would be enjoying the Super Bowl from home.
In playoff victories over Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia, Arizona was reached for 324 yards per game and 20.7 points per contest. The Cardinals have clamped down by allowing just 77.3 yards a game on the ground, aided by the fact that they have jumped out to leads meaning opponents have had to pass the ball to catch up. With their opponents forced to pass, Arizona has recorded seven sacks this postseason.
“Last week versus the Eagles, Arizona rushed three players and dropped eight throughout the game and got little to no pressure,” said Tursini. “Donovan McNabb had plenty of time to throw, and if he hadn’t been off target throughout the first half, he would have thrown for close to 500 yards. Arizona will have to rethink the three-man rush versus Pittsburgh.”
What Team Has the Edge?
The marquee matchup for Super Bowl XLIII is the Arizona offense versus the Pittsburgh defense, the real reason these two teams are in this position. The Cardinals are in their first Super Bowl despite their defense, while the Steelers are in Tampa Bay with a flawed offense.
Despite their shortcomings, the Pittsburgh offensive line and Arizona defensive line have stepped up with improved play during the postseason. The team with the advantage in this spot will come down to coaching strategy. Pittsburgh will have the advantage in this area if Arizona drops eight players into coverage like it did in the NFC Championship Game. However, the Cardinals will have the advantage if they attack the Steelers line with blitzes in an attempt to stuff their run game much like Seattle did in Super Bowl XL.
Edge: Push
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Steelers' D-line vs. Cards' O-line
By Josh Jacobs
Beginning this weekend and running through next week, Vegasinsider.com is committed to getting more then just a leg up on Super Bowl XLIII. All hands are on deck in the editorial department as we examine and re-examine every facet in this much anticipated showdown.
Let’s get this party started with a look into whether Pittsburgh’s defensive line has the advantage over Arizona’s offensive front (or vise versa). Just to stay on top of the figures, most books currently have Arizona as a seven-point underdog. A total of 46 ½ has remained unchanged.
Steelers D-Line
First off, we’re dealing with not only a D-line but a core of defensive players that finished the season first overall (13.9 PPG allowed and 237.2 YPG overall), first against the pass (156.9 YPG) and third against the run (80.3 YPG). The list goes on but you get the point.
The embedded base 3-4 formation is held together by defensive ends Aaron Smith (60 tackles), Brett Keisel (41 tackles) and nose tackle Casey Hampton (22 tackles). The combined 7 ½-sacks and six stuffs in the backfield may not be the best measurement of success, especially given the impact of the four linebackers that patrol behind the front three.
But however you want to look at it, the Steelers 21st century “Steel Curtin” ranks in just about every top spot in defensive statistical categories. The best way to breakdown the line is where this group in-fact failed to help garner the ‘W’?
Right off the bat we can see that five of the seven ATS losses during the regular season witnessed Pittsburgh giving up an average of 86.2 rushing YPG (6.2 YPG more then their season average of 80.3). But the real difference is allowing six rushing TDs in the seven total ATS losses (2-5 straight up) versus giving up just one score on the ground in nine ATS wins on the season.
And while we’ll also cover Pittsburgh’s fast attack from the outside linebackers later in the week, where would those backs be without the upfront support?
The three defensive anchors were also responsible for helping the team work for a plus-four turnover margin (nine fumble recoveries included). Providing the much needed support on the line of scrimmage, the Steelers’ defense finished the regular season with a second best, 51 sacks.
Combining the most recent 23-14 victory over Baltimore in the conference championship and its 33-13 demolition over San Diego in the divisional playoff meeting, Pittsburgh once again succeeded up front. We’re talking about the 3-4 defense holding both teams to a total of 88 rushing yards allowed (just 15 yards gained by the Chargers).
Even after holding their opponents to 14 ½-points per game (including the playoffs), the ‘over’ is 10-8 in ’08-09.
Arizona O-Line
The Cardinals offensive line isn’t the easiest to analyze. On one hand we have an Arizona team ranked last in the league, struggling for 73.6 YPG on the ground. Veteran running back Edgerrin James has found little room to work with. His 514 rushing yards and three trips into the end zone are the lowest stats to date in a career spanning 10 years.
In the grand scheme of things, we’re talking about a team who’s averaged a second worst, 3.5 yards per carry. But then again, a climatic 22 fumbles during the regular season takes away some of the blame from the offensive line.
Shifting over to the Cardinals’ passing game, that same offensive line has allowed QB Kurt Warner to chuck the pigskin for 4,583 yards (286.4 YPG) with 30 TDs and 14 interceptions. Although 26 sacks against Warner have marred the pass protection in this argument, it’s also worth mentioning that Arizona’s slinger isn’t the most mobile outside the pocket.
But there is a brighter side to this story.
In the playoffs, veteran lineman Mike Gandy and company have helped the offense make a 180 degree turnaround. During the regular season, the Cardinals ran the ball 340 times for an average of 21 carries per game. But in the playoffs, 33 touches per game has resulted in running the ball 52-percent of the time (compared to passing it 62-percent of the time during the regular season).
In wins against Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia during its postseason run, Arizona has outrushed the opponent for a total of 101 yards (33.7 YPG advantage). When the offensive line has paved the way for Edgerrin James to notch 70-plus yards on the ground, the Cards have gone 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS.
Who’s got the Edge?
The Steelers have been getting the job done with the same three defensive linemen since taking Super Bowl XL in 2005 (and beyond then with Aaron Smith logging in 10 years and Casey Hampton with eight years of Pittsburgh experience). Not much has changed in the way of defensive dominance since coach Bill Cowher left the team at the end of 2007.
Arizona’s offensive line success can only be traced back to the beginning of the playoffs. Sure, the Cards front four have opened the door for the rushing game to steam forward for 111 YPG in the last three games. But, this will be the toughest test and in the most important scenario this season. Can the offensive line rise to the occasion against considerable odds?
Edge: Steelers’ defensive line
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Steelers' RBs vs. Cards' LBs
By Josh Jacobs
We‘re moving full steam ahead as Sunday’s much anticipated show down in Tampa Bay inches ever so closer to kickoff. Do running backs Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore hold the key to Pittsburgh gaining control of its time of possession, thus swinging the ground game in the team’s favor? Or does Arizona’s three linebacker set flourish behind emerging start, Karlos Dansby?
Pittsburgh’s Running Backs
In only his second year in the NFL, “Fast” Willie Parker embraced his starting role in Super Bowl XL. Pittsburgh worked hard to grab its first SB victory since 1979, beating down Seattle, 21-10. And while All-Star wide out, Hines Ward (five receptions for 123 yards with one score) was awarded the MVP, it was Parker who collected 93 yards and one TD. With the score only 7-3 in the Steelers favor, Parker broke a 75-yard run in the third quarter, etching his name into history as the running back to register the largest run from scrimmage in Super Bowl history.
Three years later and the Steelers will once again entrust Parker to lead the running game. Some uncertainty definitely hangs above as the 28-year-old back out of North Carolina has struggled to recoup from a nagging knee injury in 2008 (and a broken leg in '07). Parker finished the regular season, rushing for 791 yards in 11 games (3.8 yards per attempt).
Then there’s Mewelde Moore. As backup to Parker, the five-foot-11, 209 pound running back chalked up 588 yards with five scores on 140 attempts. As rookie Rashard Mendenhall stepped off the field for the season in Week 4 due to a fractured shoulder, Moore became the go-to guy (especially with Parker’s knee problems).
Moore has also been a solid check off option, putting together 320 receiving yards and one TD on 40 receptions.
And look for third string rusher, Gary Russell to be implemented into the game plan. Moore suffered a right ankle sprain in the Conference Championship win over Baltimore (23-14), and while his status seems unaffected for the Super Bowl, Russell serves as another option in a worst case scenario.
Coming full circle, it’s necessary to note that the Steelers are 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread when Parker has breeched the 100-yard mark on the ground. Even more important is Pitt’s perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark when the star back had seen the end zone at least once in a game in both the regular and postseason.
Parker’s best outing this season came in the 35-24 win over San Diego in the divisional playoff game. His 146 yards and two scores came on 27 carries. However, Parker emerged from the 23-14 win over the Ravens with just 47 yards on 24 touches (just 2 yards per carry).
Arizona’s Linebackers
Let’s be honest, the Steelers emerge from this category as the best linebacker core in Super Bowl XLIII. But that means it’s very easy to overlook Arizona’s emerging talent.
Playing in the more conventional 4-3 defense (as opposed to Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defensive formation), the Cards will be looking to Karlos Dansby as the inspirational leader. The five-year linebacker out of Auburn finished the regular season with a career high, 119 tackles. Four sacks, two forced fumbles and two interceptions also proved that Dansby’s versatility is not to be overlooked.
Interesting enough, when Dansby was produced eight tackles or less, Arizona has put together an impressive 10-2 record. Producing more then eight tackles is good indication that the Cardinals defense is spending too much time on the field.
Cementing the foundation is middle linebacker , Gerald Hayes. Helping to plug the hole, Hayes has donated 88 tackles (67 solo) to the defensive cause, while forcing four fumbles throughout the regular season. In just the playoffs alone, Hayes is responsible for 12 tackles and one interception.
On the weak side of the field will be Chike Okeafor’s territory to patrol. The 10-year defensive end/linebacker brings with him experience and numbers to boot. Okeafor has produced 25 tackles in the last six outings, while 60 take downs (50 solo tackles), 4 ½-sacks and one interception should give us an indication of what’s to come in the Bowl.
Take into account that when the defensive effort has stepped up, allowing the run game to outyard opponents, Arizona has been able to secure four straight SU and ATS wins. This has translated into team’s scoring 20.8 PPG, while the ‘over’ has gone 3-1.
Who’s got the Edge?
You’d be hard pressed to go against the grain here. Hands down, Pittsburgh’s run game has been a tested group able to punch their way through defensive units when needed. But there have been instances when Parker has finished flat even when his health status has been cleared. This year has been Parker’s worst since joining the league in 2004 (rushed for 186 yards on 32 attempts in that first year in the NFL). When the two-time Pro Bowl running back has produced under 100-yards on the ground in eight games this season, he’s averaged just 45.5 yards per game.
If we’re talking about experience there’s no way that the Cardinals linebacker core could be in the same category as Pittsburgh’s but that’s not what’s up for debate. We have a young crew in Arizona hungry for a chance to prove themselves on the highest plateau in the NFL.
I’m just not sure that allowing a 19th ranked, 331.5 total YPG and a 16th ranked, 110.3 YPG on the ground tells the whole story of what the Cards will bring to the big game. If there’s been an argument to support it’s Arizona’s defense holding opponents to 77.3 YPG on the ground and giving up just two rushing scores during the postseason. Is this indication of a ‘D’ that’s undergone a tune-up in big games?
Edge: Steelers
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Cards' RBs vs. Steelers' LBs
By Brad Young
Super Bowl XLIII is less than a week away, meaning now is the time to really focus on some of the key aspects that will help determine the winner. This column is going to focus on the Arizona running backs against the Pittsburgh linebackers.
These two teams would not be playing in this game if it weren’t for the exploits of these two areas. To further help in breaking down these two key areas will be VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco who correctly picked both conference finals.
Arizona is going to need a solid ground game to keep the Pittsburgh pass rush off of quarterback Kurt Warner. By running the ball effectively, it will open up the passing attack led by a quarterback that already has a Super Bowl MVP trophy on his resume. The Cardinals have won and covered all three of their playoff games this postseason behind an improving ground game.
Pittsburgh won the AFC North Division and advanced to the Super Bowl behind its dominating defense. The linebackers are a central part to the Steelers attack that includes the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Whatever team controls this aspect of the game will probably hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Tampa Bay. Now let’s take a closer look at this matchup for Super Bowl XLIII.
Arizona’s Running Backs
Arizona’s ground game consists of veteran Edgerrin James and rookie Tim Hightower. James was benched during the season and didn’t get the touches he has been used to in his career. While the veteran complained about it at the time, it has turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the Cardinals. James is much healthier at this stage of the season, ranking 42nd in the league during the regular season with 133 carries for 514 yards for an average of 3.9 yards per carry. The 10-year veteran scored three touchdowns during that time.
“Arizona has run the ball 52 percent of the time in its three playoff games after running the ball only 35 percent during the regular season,” said Franco. “So look for the Cardinals to try to run the ball with try being the key word.”
James leads the postseason in rushing for 203 yards on 52 attempts (3.9 yards per carry average). The 30-year-old has averaged 17.3 carries during Arizona’s three playoff games, scoring one touchdown and recording 10 first downs.
The reason that James has been so fresh during the stretch run has been the exploits of Hightower, a rookie out of the University of Richmond. The 22-year-old had 143 carries during the regular season for 399 yards (2.8 yards per carry) along with 10 touchdowns. Hightower has accumulated 132 yards rushing in three postseason games on 34 carries (3.9 yards per carry average) with one touchdown and seven first downs.
The Cardinals have been doing most of their damage on the ground with their outside speed. Arizona ranked dead last in the league during the regular season in rushing with 1,178 yards on 340 attempts (73.6 yards per game) with 14 touchdowns.
Pittsburgh Linebackers
When you talk about Pittsburgh linebackers, you have to start with NFL Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison (101 tackles, 16 sacks). The Steelers 3-4 scheme ranked second in the league during the regular season in rush defense, allowing just 80.2 yards per game and an average of 3.3 yards per carry.
“Pittsburgh has what I consider the best linebacking group in the NFL,” stated Franco. “Looking at what the Steelers did this season versus on of the toughest schedules ever, you have to say that they are the best in the business.”
Pittsburgh’s defense ranked first during the regular season in points per game (13.9), yards allowed (237.2) and passing yards (156.9). Alongside Harrison in the 3-4 scheme is Larry Foote (63 tackles, 1.5 sacks), James Farrior (133 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and LaMarr Woodley (60 tackles, 11.5 sacks).
The Steelers continued their defensive dominance during their two postseason games, yielding an average of 44 yards per game rushing and an average of 2.4 yards per carry. Those performances occurred against San Diego’s Darren Sproles (11 carries, 15 yards) and Baltimore’s Willis McGahee (20 carries for 60 yards and two touchdowns).
“Pittsburgh will have to play most of the Super Bowl looking for the pass first because Warner will beat the Steelers deep if they don’t,” noted Franco. “This may help the rushing yardage totals for the Cardinals, but don’t look for any long runs against the Pittsburgh defense.”
What Team Has the Edge?
Defense wins championships, a formula Pittsburgh has used in five previous Super Bowl victories. The Steelers pride themselves on stopping the run, and Arizona’s ground game is not the strong point of its offense. Pittsburgh’s defense creates problems with its unorthodox 3-4 scheme highlighting four talented linebackers. The Steelers rushing defense ranked second in the league during the regular season, while Arizona’s ground game was last.
Expect to see the Cardinals pass the ball to open up their ground game, hoping to get enough out of the running attack to keep the Steelers pass rush honest. James and Hightower have provided another angle to Arizona’s high-octane passing offense of Kurt Warner, Anquan Bolden and Larry Fitzgerald. I see Arizona’s offense becoming one dimensional as the game progresses, with the Cardinals’ running game against the Steelers’ linebackers being one of the biggest mismatches of Super Bowl XLIII.
Edge: Pittsburgh
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Roethlisberger vs. Cards' Secondary
By Judd Hall
Rodney Dangerfield was probably the most famous when it comes to getting no respect. Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, however, is catching up to Al Czervik himself in terms of a lack of admiration.
It practically started from the moment Roethlisberger came out of college. Fresh off of an unbeaten season and No. 10 ranking in the Associated Press poll, the former Miami (Ohio) gunslinger was picked 11th by the Steelers in the 2004 NFL Draft. But not too many harped on his selection. The experts were infatuated by the Giants and Chargers trading Philip Rivers and Eli Manning, who were both picked well ahead of Big Ben.
He made a name for himself in his rookie campaign by leading the Steelers to a 15-1 regular season and home field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Unfortunately for Roethlisberger, he ran into Tom Brady and the Patriots in the conference title game. Off to the shadows he went again.
Even when Big Ben did lead his club to a Super Bowl championship, he was overlooked. Although, I can’t blame anyone for doing it that time since he completed just nine of 21 passes for 123 yards and a pair of interceptions. Roethlisberger’s quarterback rating of 22.6 remains the lowest of any signal caller in a Super Bowl.
He’ll get a chance to avenge that performance as his Steelers are seven-point favorites against Arizona this Sunday in Tampa.
If you’re going by stats alone, Roethlisberger didn’t do a whole hell of a lot. He completed just over 59 percent of his passes for 3,301 yards with 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Not the kind of numbers you’d expect of a signal caller leading his squad into the biggest match of the season. And his 2-2 record against the NFC is sullied more by connecting on 48 of his 104 passes for 574 yards with two scores, six picks and 21 sacks.
So why would still take Big Ben in this battle? Well, Baltimore’s defensive lineman Trevor Pryce said it best, “Here’s my advice to the Arizona Cardinals: Don’t rush Ben Roethlisberger.” Pryce continued, “After that, he’s a playground football player. That’s what he is, and he’s a damn good one.”
Roethlisberger is one of the most stubborn competitors you’ll find on a football field nowadays. His 65-yard touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes against the Ravens in the AFC Title Game on Jan. 18 was pure improvisation. Plays like that have helped him lead all AFC quarterbacks in the playoffs with a 90.8 rating and the only starter in the postseason not to throw a pick.
You’d think that would be enough to get the edge against Arizona, but you’d think wrong. The Cardinals’ secondary looked more like matadors than they did football players during the regular season after ranking 22nd in passing yards per game (221.3), 17th in interceptions (13) and they gave up the most passing touchdowns (36).
These aren’t the same Cards that we saw from September to December though. Sure, Arizona is giving up more yards through the air (247.0 YPG) and the most passing touchdowns (6) of any team that qualified for the postseason. But they have been extremely opportunistic when it comes to forcing opposing gunslingers into mistakes as they have eight picks in the postseason. Those turnovers were quickly transformed into 23 points by Kurt Warner and the offense. That doesn’t even cover the fact that free safety Antrel Rolle ran back a fumble for a score against the Falcons in the Wild Card round.
The Cardinals have been able to get those turnovers thanks to the secondary clamping down on the oppositions top targets. Strong safety Adrian Wilson’s exploit during the year garnered him a spot in the Pro Bowl. But guys like rookie Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (15 tackles, seven passes defended, two interceptions), Roderick Hood (11 tackles, four passes defended, one pick) and Ralph Brown (two stops, two passes defended, two interceptions) have forced quarterbacks to be as accurate as possible.
Arizona also has the benefit of already facing off against Roethlisberger and Company last season. The Cardinals won that match as 5 ½-point home ‘dogs, 21-14 on Sept. 30. No doubt the knowledge that head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant Russ Grimm have of Pittsburgh came into play with that matchup as Big Ben had two interceptions and was sacked four times. Despite those miscues, Roethlisberger still completed 17 of 32 passes for 244 yards and a pair of scores.
Who Has the Edge?
The popular adage is that defense wins championships. I agree with that statement, but you have to believe that having a quarterback that doesn’t screw up is just as important. Roethlisberger has played mistake-free football leading into the Super Bowl. Yet he’s only gone at least three games straight without an interception on four occasions in his career.
Roethlisberger will get the chances to make the deep throws on the Cardinals, which he is known for doing. But a few of those passes will end up being slightly off the mark. That will give Arizona the chance to either knock the ball away or come up with a momentum shifting interception. Either way, Pittsburgh’s signal caller has his work cut out for him.
Edge: Arizona Secondary
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Special Teams
By Brad Young
Special teams are often overlooked even though they play a major factor in big games. How often is an important contest decided by a field goal? Huge momentum swings can take place with a blocked kick or a returned punt. If Arizona and Pittsburgh play to a stalemate in Super Bowl XLIII, then the spotlight will really focus on special teams.
The purpose of this article is to break down the Arizona and Pittsburgh kickers, punters and kick returners to see which team has an edge. To further help analyze this often overlooked aspect, I’ve employed the services of VegasInsider.com handicapper Paul Bovi who has a stellar 5-0 record this postseason and a 13-2 ledger his previous 15 selections overall. Bovi has been especially successful in handicapping totals, an aspect that is often affected by teams’ play on the special teams.
Now let’s take a closer look at all the special teams aspects that will affect the outcome for Super Bowl XLIII.
Arizona kickers
Arizona kicker Neil Rackers had 28 field goal attempts in 2008, converting 25 times for a solid 89 percent. His longest made attempt of the year was from 54 yards on the road against Seattle in mid-November. One field goal this season was blocked, but he was an unblemished 44-of-44 on extra-point attempts.
“Rackers, at 77 percent lifetime, is five percentage points lower than (Jeff) Reid over his career,” stated Bovi. “While the nine-year veteran did enjoy a breakout season in 2005 by converting 40-of-42 kicks, he has faltered at times during pressure situations.”
The veteran ranked 20th in the league during the regular season, making all nine of his field-goal attempts from 20-29 yards. Rackers connected at a solid 82-percent clip (9-of-11) from 30-39 yards, and 6-of-6 when kicking from 40-49 yards. The 32-year-old only had two attempts over 50 yards this season, making 1-of-2.
Rackers saw his kicking percentage take a slight hit during the postseason, going 5-of-7 (71 percent) with a long of 49 yards. The former Illinois Illini kicker was unblemished from 20-29 yards (1-of-1), 30-39 yards (2-of-2) and 40-49 yards (2-of-2) while missing both attempts from over 50 yards.
Rackers was tied for 30th in the league regarding kickoffs, kicking off 90 times for 5,699 yards with only one ball kicked out of bounds. The nine-year veteran had an average of 63.3 yards per kickoff, with 15 touchbacks.
Rackers stepped up his game like the rest of the Cardinals when the postseason rolled around, and was involved in more kickoffs compliments of an explosive offense. The 6-foot-1 kicker had 18 kickoffs for 1,143 yards with one out-of-bounds for an average of 63.5 yards per kick. This year was Racker’s first postseason experience after spending three years with the Cincinnati Bengals (2000-02) and the last six seasons with Arizona (2003-2008).
Pittsburgh Kickers
Pittsburgh’s Jeff Reed was 27-of-31 (87 percent) on field-goal attempts, with no blocks occurring this season. His longest successful kick was from 53 yards in Week 3 at Philadelphia.
The seven-year veteran was perfect from 1-19 yards (1-of-1), 9-of-9 from 20-29 yards, 8-of-9 from 30-39, 8-of-10 from 40-49 yards and 1-of-2 from 50 plus. He did miss one extra point during the regular season, going 36-of-37.
Reed connected on all three of his field goal attempts this postseason, with a long of 46 yards against Baltimore. The former North Carolina Tar Heels kicker was 1-of-1 from 30-39 yards and 2-of-2 from 40-49 yards. He has played all seven of his seasons in Pittsburgh, and was a member of the Super Bowl XL winning squad.
Reed had 79 kickoffs for 4,943 yards with one kick going out of bounds during the regular season. The veteran had just nine touchbacks (11 percent), while 68 kicks were returned for an average of 19.3 yards. He had just one onside kick during the year. Reed ranked ahead of just three other kickers this postseason with 12 kickoffs and no touchbacks, with the average return on those kicks going for 21.4 yards.
“The Steelers have the top-ranked coverage team on kickoffs,” said Bovi. “Pittsburgh also ranks a solid third in covering punts.”
Arizona Punting
Arizona punter Ben Graham returned from an injury and kicked the last four weeks of the regular season, and all three postseason games. The Australian had 15 punts against Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia for an average of 39.9 yards per kick. His long was for 53 yards against the Panthers, while his net average for those games was just 35.1 yards. Nine of his kicks were downed inside the 20-yard-line, while five punts were returned for 53 yards.
Pittsburgh Punting
Pittsburgh’s Mitch Berger was called on 66 times this season, punting the ball 2,728 yards with a net of 2,405 yards. The Canadian native had an average punt of 41.3 yards, with his longest being 61 yards. Berger kicked 19 balls inside the 20-yard line with four touchbacks.
His postseason numbers were similar, punting 11 times for 456 yards with a net of 367. His longest punt was for 51 yards, but his average kick was 41.5 yards. Berger had nine of his punts returned, while one was downed and the other was a touchback.
“The weakness for both teams has to be in the punting game where both Berger and Graham have proven erratic,” noted Bovi. “Graham has seen 21 of his 37 punts returned for an average of 16 yards, and his net of 33.8 yards per punt was two yards less than Berger’s.”
Arizona kick returners
Running back J.J Arrington had 36 kick returns during the regular campaign for 923 yards and an average of 25.6 yards per return. The 26-year-old did return one for a touchdown that went for 93 yards, and had three runs for over 40 yards.
The postseason saw Arrington have seven returns for 148 yards and an average of 21.1 yards per attempt. Wide receiver Steve Breaston contributed with two kick returns in the playoffs for 41 yards (20.5 yards per return average). The former Michigan Wolverine also had five punt returns for 25 yards with a long of 11 yards.
Pittsburgh kick returners
Pittsburgh running back Gary Russell had 16 returns during the regular season for 371 yards and an average of 23.2 yards per return. His longest return was 43 yards, while eight returns were over 20 yards. The second-year player had four kickoff returns during the playoffs for 78 yards and an average of 19.5 yards. The former Minnesota Golden Gopher had two returns over 20 yards, with the longest being 25 yards.
Running back Mewelde Moore had one kickoff return during the postseason for 18 yards, while returning two punts for a half a yard. Not exactly a game breaker in these kind of situations.
What Team Has the Edge?
“I would give the special teams edge to the Steelers, particularly when it comes to the place kicking,” stated Bovi. “Jeff Reed rates a clear advantage over Neil Rackers when it comes to dealing with pressure situations.
“I cannot recall an instance of Reed missing a field goal with the game hanging in the balance. Reed has only missed 11-of-124 kicks under 40 yards during his seven-year career. That has to be considered a stellar feat when one takes into account the difficulty factor of Heinz Field.”
While both Arizona’s and Pittsburgh punting and kick return games are pretty similar, the edge goes to the Steelers concerning special teams due to their place kicker.
Edge: Pittsburgh
vegasinsider.com.
Kurt Warner vs. Steelers' DBs
By Brian Edwards
To continue VegasInsider.com’s in-depth breakdown of Super Bowl XLIII between Arizona and Pittsburgh, I have the matchup between quarterback Kurt Warner and the Steelers’ secondary.
There are no rookies involved in this matchup. Just like Warner won a Super Bowl with St. Louis, all four starters in the Pittsburgh secondary were key players in helping the Steelers lift the Lombardi Trophy following a Super Bowl XL win over Seattle three years ago.
Will the veteran Warner be able to slice up a Pittsburgh pass defense that ranked 12th in the NFL? On the other hand, will strong safety Troy Polamalu be able to make a game-changing play like his pick-six that sealed the victory over Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game?
Arizona QB Kurt Warner:
Before this season, Warner’s story was already one of the best in NFL history. You know how it goes: He was stacking groceries before getting a shot with the Iowa Barnstormers of the Arena League. Then he hooked up with the St. Louis Rams as a back-up, only to be given the starting job in 1999 when Trent Green went down with a season-ending injury in a preseason game.
I remember the first time I heard Warner’s name. It was at Dick Vermeil’s (predictably) teary press conference following Green’s injury. With his voice choking up, Vermeil said, “But this team is going to rally around Kurt Warner, and we will play well.”
At that time, Vermeil was on the hot seat. His first two years in St. Louis were a joke (9-23 record) and the game had appeared to have passed him by. But during the improbable 1999 campaign, Warner led the Rams to 23-16 Super Bowl win over Tennessee.
Warner took the Rams back to the Super Bowl again in 2001, throwing for 365 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a heartbreaking loss to New England. After that, however, Warner had a pair of injury-plagued, ineffective seasons in St. Louis before the club released him.
He landed with the Giants and had the team off to an excellent start in 2004, but things went south midway through the season and Warner eventually gave way to Eli Manning. In 2005 and 2006, Warner was the on-again, off-again starter for Arizona.
When Matt Leinart went down with a shoulder injury early last year, Warner was the starter again. But this time, he hasn’t let the position go. He’s now started 30 consecutive games for the Cardinals.
And maybe, just maybe, this final chapter (or chapters) is the best part of the ‘Kurt Warner Story.” He has led the Arizona Cardinals, a moribund franchise that’s been the NFL’s laughingstock for decades, to Super Bowl XLIII.
On the way, he has put up monster numbers, throwing for 4,583 yards during the regular season with a 30/14 touchdown-interception ratio. And now he’s led the Cards to three consecutive playoff victories.
Unlike in the regular season, Arizona has developed a more effective rushing attack during the postseason. Edgerrin James, benched midway through the year, is back starting and also back producing.
“I think the running game has the key to Warner’s success,” Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Mike Seba told VegasInsider.com. “If the Cardinals can’t run it against Pittsburgh, Warner could be in trouble.”
Pittsburgh’s Secondary:
Ike Taylor and veteran Deshea Townsend are the cornerbacks, who have combined for just three interceptions. On the other hand, strong safety Troy Polamalu has made big plays galore.
The USC product had seven interceptions during the regular season, in addition to the aforementioned pick-six against the Ravens. He also had 17 passes defended.
The free safety is Ryan Clark, a seven-year veteran from out of LSU. Clark is an outstanding run-stuffer, making 87 tackles in 14 regular-season games. Clark had a forced fumble with his lights-out hit on Willis McGahee in the fourth quarter against Baltimore.
This unit has the benefit of playing behind one of the league’s best pass-rushing units. When secondary players know they have LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison (27 ½ combined sacks) going after the quarterback, they know they can take chances and know they don’t have to keep great coverage for an extended period of time.
Polamalu is the real risk-taker. He makes great reads and has a terrific nose for the ball. In other words, he’s seemingly always at the right place at the right time. And he’s a ferocious hitter.
This might be the best passing attack Pittsburgh has faced this season. The Steelers did go up against Dallas (20-13 win), New England (33-10 win) and Indy (24-20 loss), but their last five foes – Baltimore twice, Cleveland, San Diego and Tennessee – have had subpar aerial attacks.
Without a doubt, the combination of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin present formidable challenges for Pittsburgh’s secondary. Fitzgerald has been incredible in these playoffs and Boldin should be 100 percent healthy for the first time since his mid-season injury against the Jets. Since then, the FSU product has battled injuries to his shoulder, jaw/face and hamstring.
What team has the edge?
With the way Warner and Fitzgerald have been playing, I have to give the edge to Arizona. Now certainly, Pittsburgh’s pass rush could have a significant impact on this matchup and tilt it back towards the Steelers by dominating Arizona’s offensive line.
“Arizona hasn’t faced a pass rush like Pittsburgh has,” Seba added. “New England and Minnesota had similar defenses, and we saw how much the Cards struggled against them.”
As for Warner’s Super Bowl experience, Seba doesn’t think that’s much of a factor this week.
“It helps that Warner has been there before,” Seba said. “But that was a different team with different personnel and completely different circumstances.”
Nevertheless, I think the presence of Fitzgerald gives the edge to Arizona here. And I think the Steelers’ focus on Fitzgerald is going to open things up for Boldin, who I believe is poised for a monster performance.
Edge: Arizona
vegasinsider.com
Hit 'em where it hurts: Super Bowl mismatches
By VICTOR RYAN
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 46.5)
Santonio Holmes vs. Cardinals’ punt coverage
The Steelers’ punt return team was rather abysmal during the regular season with just 6.6 yards a return, but Holmes and the Steelers have upped their game in the postseason and could provide the Steelers with a shorter field to work with on Sunday.
In its two playoff wins, the Steelers have returned seven punts for an average of 14.1 yards and one touchdown. The lone touchdown, of course, was a 67-yard scamper by speedster by Holmes. He has risen to the occasion in the playoffs with five punt returns for an average of 19.6 yards.
The Arizona punt unit has been solid this postseason after a disappointing first 16 games. Punter Ben Graham took over punting duties midway through the regular season and has been solid in the playoffs. Just five of his 15 punts have been returned and nine were downed inside the 20. With that said, the Cardinals still managed to rank 31st of 32 teams during the regular season with a net punt return average of 13.1 yards. That could mean some things will be open for Holmes and the Steelers.
Pittsburgh defense vs. Arizona offensive line
The offensive line of the Cardinals has improved under O-line coach Russ Grimm, especially during this surprising playoff run. But the unit hasn’t faced anything like the NFL’s top-rated ‘D’ and that may prove a major factor.
Arizona’s offensive line allowed only 29 a remarkable feat for considering only the Saints attempted more passes per game than the Cards. The Red Birds were last in rushing yards with just 73.6 yards a game but that turned around in the postseason. The ground game, thanks largely to a rested and healthy Edgerrin James, increased to 111 yards a game over Zona’s last three games.
Kurt Warner and Company will be facing a whole other test when NFL Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison and crew enters Ray Davis Stadium Sunday.
Cardinals’ offense vs. Steelers’ defense on third-down
These are actually strengths of both teams, but it could go a long way towards determining the outcome. The Cardinals’ offense has been lights out on third down during the postseason with a 47 percent conversion rate, which is an improvement from its solid regular season conversion rate of 42 percent. The improved running game of the Cardinals in the playoffs has gone a long way in upping that percentage, but they’ll be facing a daunting task with the Steelers’ defense.
Pittsburgh’s defense was tops in the NFL during the regular season and just 31 percent of opponents’ third downs were successful. The Steelers have been nearly as good during their playoff run with just a 32 percent opposition success rate.
Coaching
By J Jacobs
Two coaches who took up the title as head coach for their respected teams only two years ago are now facing their most important test in the National Football League. Will Mike Tomlin help bring Pittsburgh its sixth total Super Bowl Championship and second trophy in three years? Or is Ken Whisenhunt the guy to bring home the big win in Arizona’s first Super Bowl appearance in team history (not counting NFL Championships in 1925 and 1947)?
Tomlin became the youngest coach in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl after defeating Baltimore, 23-14 in the Conference Championship. Taking the reins when Bill Cowher stepped down from the head coaching spot at the end of 2006, Tomlin is now 22-10 in his two year tenure during the regular season. He’s set the Steelers record for most wins in a two year span with 22 victories and is 2-1 during post season play.
Not much has changed since Cowher stepped down from his post and Tomlin climbed up. The defensive line remains intact as defensive ends Aaron Smith, Brett Keisel and nose tackle Casey Hampton continue to anchor the 3-4 formation. Running back Willie Parker is the highlight of the backfield and Hines Ward remains the face of the wide receiver core. So we’re dealing with almost the exact blueprint that Cowher was able to utilize in 2005 Super Bowl win.
Besides Pittsburgh’s near exact look to the team that thrusted Seattle, 21-10 in Super Bowl XL, Tomlin should be commended for his execution of the Tampa 2 defense. The hybrid mix of the Cover 2 and 3 defensive schemes utilizes a middle linebacker to cover the midfield while only two defensive backs protect against the long ball.
The reoccurring theme in Tomlin’s two-year stretch is the consistent, top ranked defense. This is a core of players who finished 2007 giving up a stingy, 266.4 YPG. The hardcore 3-4 formation stuffed opposing teams for 89.9 YPG on the ground and prevented QBs from finding their targets. Pittsburgh’s 2007 defensive dominance held the air game in check for 176.5 YPG allowed.
Fast forward to 2008 and the numbers are right in the neighborhood compared to last season. The 21st century “Steel Curtin” defense finished the regular season allowing a second best, 80.3 YPG. But it was that secondary and pass rush that held the opposition in check by yielding an effective 156.9 YPG through the air.
There’s not much history to fall back on in terms of Tomlin’s short run thus far. His first year as head coach (2007) witnessed the Steelers ending the regular season at 10-6 (8-8 against the spread) while losing the AFC Wild Card to Jacksonville, 31-29 (covering the spread however as 2 ½-point underdogs).
Arizona’s Ken Whisenhunt has been climbing the ranks of organized football since working as the special teams and tight end coach back in 1995 for Vanderbilt University. Stints at Baltimore, Cleveland and New York (with the Jets) were all resume builders, but from 2001-2006, Whisenhunt spent valuable time orchestrating Pittsburgh’s offense as a tight ends coach. It was between 2004 and 2006 that he was promoted to offensive coordinator. So, does this give the Cards a leg up on their opponent in the Bowl?
Given the relatively unchanged landscape in the Steelers locker room since his departure, logical thinking says the Cardinals are better off then most. We’re talking about an Arizona coaching squad composed of offensive coordinator, Todd Haley and offensive line coach, Russ Grim, that were all part of Pittsburgh’s staff some time ago. Surly we all know what happened in Super Bowl XXXVII when former head coach of Tampa Bay, Jon Gruden had the ‘edge’ on Oakland Raiders QB Rich Gannon and company.
But the word around the water cooler (and one shared by this writer) is that even with Whisenhunt’s more then adequate knowledge of the Steelers offensive schemes and habits, it all ultimately lies on the Cardinals’ defensive unit to get the job done.
Whisenhunt has gotten Arizona’s offensive unit to play in unison. More specifically is a passing game led by veteran QB, Kurt Warner that posted 365.8 passing YPG (fourth best) during the regular season. Then there was a running game that found itself ranked dead last with 73.6 YPG. The postseason has seen a resurgence on the ground as RBs Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have combined for 335 rushing yards with two scores.
This offensive fueled squad has picked up the mess that the defense was unable to address. Arizona’s ‘D’ unit was 22nd worst (221.3 YPG allowed) during the regular season and contributed to a 28th ranking in points allowed (26.6 PPG). Yes, the defensive has begun to click in the playoffs (allowing 20.7 PPG), but is this an indication for what to expect in Super Bowl XLIII?
As the sun sets on the West Coast of Florida, Cardinals’ coach Whisenhunt will have his hands full on the big stage. For Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin, it's business as usual. Minus the new name on the sidelines for the Steelers in this Super Bowl we’re looking at a team that’s been in this spot. This is a team with much of the same elements that had Bill Cowher clutching the Vince Lombardi trophy once before.
Edge: Steelers
vegasinsider.com
Intangibles
By C David
“Paralysis by Analysis” is a phrase often used in the handicapping industry that leads gamblers to second guess their thoughts and lead to indecision, which is never a good thing for a profession or hobby that commands confidence.
Since Super Bowl XLIII was determined on Jan. 18, bettors will have had two weeks to place a wager on the big game. VegasInsider.com has analyzed all of the key matchups between Arizona and Pittsburgh thoroughly, but there are certain factors that cannot be handicapped and their called intangibles.
Let’s take a closer look at some intangibles that could affect the finale.
Competition
Is Pittsburgh as good as the oddsmakers believe? The Steelers did claim the No. 2 seed in the AFC but were fortunate to miss the top-seed, Tennessee, in the playoffs. Plus, they drew a tired San Diego team that had to travel in the divisional round and a fatigued Baltimore club with a rookie gun slinger in the conference championship. Pitt’s defense is one of the elite in the league, if not the best. However, what happens to a good unit when it gets down early and loses confidence. If you look up and down the schedule, the Steelers have never faced an attack this dynamic and explosive all year. Perhaps we should ask the Eagles, right?
Arizona was also helped by playing in a weak division, NFC West, which was the only group in the league that had three teams with losing records. The Cardinals did gain instant credibility by winning three straight in the playoffs, twice as underdogs and twice at home too, where the club only suffered one defeat all season. On the road, Arizona was 4-5. More importantly, the team was 1-5 on the East Coast, the site of this year’s Super Bowl. The 33-13 road victory against Carolina in the divisional round was very important for the squad, yet it’s hard to forget the five other losses which came by a combined score of 202-102.
Turnovers
“The team that wins the turnover battle is more than likely going to win the game.” Another phrase often used in pro football, and you can never argue against it. The top five teams in the NFL this year with a plus-turnover margin all made the playoffs, while the bottom five all had their seasons end in Week 17.
Pittsburgh stood at plus-four over the regular season with 25 giveaways and 29 takeaways. In their two playoff games, the Steelers forced six turnovers (4 INTs) and even took one back to the house for six points.
Arizona was even on the year in the turnover department with 30 giveaways and takeaways. However, the club has been more than opportunistic in their three playoff encounters. The Cardinals have a plus-nine turnover margin, with 12 takeaways (8 INTs) and 3 giveaways.
Ironically, the only team to lose the all-important turnover battle in a Super Bowl and still win the game was Pittsburgh in its recent victory over Seattle. The Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was picked off twice, while the Seahawks only coughed up the ball once.
Penalties
Sticking with the Steelers’ victory in Super Bowl XL, this particular game was said by many to be hurt by penalties. The Seahawks were flagged seven times for 70 yards in the setback, including one that overturned a touchdown and another that would set up a first-and-goal late in the game. The Steelers had three flags called on them in the win for 20 yards.
Even though Seattle had a reason to gripe, nobody can forecast the future of penalties but you can sense if the teams playing are disciplined. Arizona’s offense was very explosive this season, but the unit was penalized 107 times, which was the fifth worst in the league. Pittsburgh was flagged 95 times on offense. Defensively, the Cardinals were penalized 98 times while the Steelers were called for 91 penalties.
Experience
The Steelers captured Super Bowl XL with a 21-10 victory over the Seahawks and 22 players from that squad are on this year’s roster. Arizona has seven players with Super Bowl experience, most notably Kurt Warner, who went 1-1 in the big game with the St. Louis Rams. On the field, the edge goes to the Black and Gold but in the press box, the Cardinals have the advantage.
Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt was with the Steelers when they won in 2005 as was the Cardinals’ assistant head coach Russ Grimm too. Grimm also helped the Washington Redskins to four Super Bowl appearances and three victories in the big game.
Across the sidelines, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has never played or coached in a Super Bowl. His postseason record is 2-1, while Whisenhunt remains perfect (3-0).
What’s ironic about the pair is that they were two of five coaches to become first-year head coaches in 2007. The other three (Cam Cameron, Lane Kiffin, Bobby Petrino) coaches didn’t pan out as expected.
Final Thoughts
Even after winning the NFC West, not a lot of folks expressed much interest in Arizona, especially the oddsmakers. They might not be the best team overall but they have confidence, which is another immeasurable factor. The Cardinals have a swagger to them and they’re playing the disrespect card big time, some might say too much. When you factor in the experience on the sidelines and behind center, along with an opportunistic defense, it could spell trouble for any opponent.
Edge: Arizona
vegasinsider.com
Defensive Points Against!!
There is no question defense rules the NFL and of more interest it also rules the point spread. Defenses perform more consistently than do offenses and should be afforded the greatest weight when handicapping pro football. To that end, the focus of this weeks analysis is defense and an oft overlook statistic 'Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Yards' of real estate surrendered. Why you wonder, well this particular stat measures how hard a team makes its opponents work to get points translating to the team with the best DPA number is the team that makes the fewest mistakes, executes best and wins the battle of field position.
The above in mind let's take a deeper dive into stats to see who walks off with the 'W' but more importantly with the $$$ when Steelers with the leagues stingiest defense take on the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII.
Steelers have allowed an average 240.7 yards per game, 14.5 points giving the squad a YTD 'Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Yards' ratio of 6.0 (240.7/100=2.4, 14.5/2.4=6.0 Pts/100 Yds Allw). Meanwhile, Cardinals come in surrendering 330.4 yards per game, 25.7 PPG for a 'Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Yards' rating of 7.8. As the numbers suggest Steelers make fewer mistakes on defense, execute better thus it's harder for opponents to score.
Now that we have a handle on what to expect defensively let's add each teams offensive yardage to the mix completing the model.
Steelers manages 313.8 yards per game so assuming everything plays to form expect Steelers scoring 24-27 points (318.8/100=3.19 * Cardinals DP100 Rating 7.8=24.8).
Conversely, Arizona gains 365.1 yards per game and once again assuming both play to form the Cardinals should score 21-24 points (365.1/100=3.7 * Steelers DP100 Rating 6.0=22.2).
There you have it, Steelers by a field goal - Sure makes Cardinals (+6.5) a tempting proposition.
sportspic.com
Who Covers and Why
Doug Upstone
Finally. That’s right, Sunday night at 6:28 Eastern time, the Super Bowl will start and all the rhetoric about Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm being jilted by the Pittsburgh organization, and the talk of the Steelers secondary having to face the greatest wide receiver ever to play the game in Larry Fitzgerald (That Rice guy used to be pretty good) will end. Now we can get down to the basics, blocking and tackling, who makes the best sight adjustments throughout the 60 minutes and who holds up under pressure. Here is a look at how each team wins and covers the spread. Pittsburgh gets to go first since they are the road team, called heads and will take the ball.
Pittsburgh wins and covers because…
They can play keep away, holding the ball for over 32 minutes during the regular season and almost 35 minutes in the playoffs. They have the ability to demoralize opponents, since offensive coordinator Bruce Arians won’t give up on the run and if Pittsburgh has success, they will just pound away until they break opposing team’s will.
Arizona DC Clancy Pendegrast will attack the Steelers offense with blitzes trying to get the ball out of Ben Roethlisberger’s hands, with the intent of forcing mistakes. The Steelers can counter this with draws, screens and utilizing tight Heath Miller to move the chains. The goal of the Pittsburgh offense is to push, push and push the Cardinals and hit a few big plays with Willie Parker running the ball or deep shots to Santonio Holmes. Don’t be surprised if Nate Washington has bigger impact than Hines Ward in this big game.
If defense wins championships, Pittsburgh is perfectly situated to take home a record sixth Super Bowl trophy. The Steelers allowed 161.5 yards per game as the NFL’s top pass defense and Arizona has passed for 284.9 yards per game in 19 outings. That is a preposterous 122.4 yards difference comparing the strengths of the two teams. Even if Pittsburgh allows half the total of 61 yards, they have effectively taken away a large chunk of the Arizona attack. The idea with Fitzgerald is to not have him make big plays since he will we get his catches and limit the other receivers.
Dick LeBeau defense first needs to corral the Arizona running game. Though Kurt Warner is having a special season, he has gotten rattled this year and it usually happens early. Make Warner’s emotions work against him and pressure him with different looks. If Warner gets that eye-wided snarl on his face, the Steelers will be wearing the Super Bowl winners t-shirts and hats.
Arizona wins and covers because…
The defense is playing tough, assignment-oriented football. In every playoff game, the Arizona defense has not only stopped the run, they have done so with discipline to prevent big plays. Both Michael Turner and Brian Westbrook made defenders miss running the ball, but the Cardinals defenders maintained gap control and held them to minimal gains time and again. Keeping Parker boxed will force the Steelers to look for other alternatives.
The aforementioned Clancy Pendegrast has to be excited in viewing the tape of all the problems the Pittsburgh offensive linemen had with the Baltimore stunts and games up front, especially on the right side. Look for him to find out if they have corrected this issue, if not, Ben Roethlisberger can expect to see red shirts and white helmets in his line of vision and around him all day. Give a disrespected underdog a reason to play harder, they will.
Part of Arizona’s success in the postseason has been their ability to start and keep the pressure on their opponents. When teams trail in the playoffs, coaches feel a different sense of urgency because a loss means elimination. The Cardinals for the most part have been in control most of the three games. Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have balanced the Redbirds offense, creating more opportunities in the passing game. Arizona is 9-0 SU and ATS if they out-rush the opposition this season.The Cards offensive line has to be aware of linebacker James Harrison at all times. He has been the most disruptive individual defender in the NFL this year. Warner has to keep his cool and might be forced to look to receivers Steve Breaston and even Jereme Urban, with how the Steelers can play defense. Though Warner is a seasoned veteran, capable of reading any defense, he still has to make the plays, particularly in the moment. If he realizes the Steelers defense will force enough three and outs, yet can still be had with the multitude of weapons, possibly the most unlikely Super Bowl champion since the New York Jets in the third Super Bowl will be crowned.