So here we are coming to the end of the NFL season, and what a season it's been. For me personally, it's been a very rewarding season as I won the PST/Bookmaker NFL Contest again, and finished in the money tied for 5th place in the Stations Challenge Contest in Vegas, and also won the mini contest for the best record the last 4 weeks of the contest.
In this Super Bowl, we have a team percieved to be a powerhouse vs. a team that many feel shouldn't even be here. That might have been the case during the end of the regular season, but the Cardinals have sure gotten a lot of peoples attention with the establishment of a defense that actually stops runners, and a running game of their own to go along with their already powerful offensive show.
As far as the Steelers go, I'm sure everyone knows what to expect from them. They will try and pound the ball with their running game, and let Big Ben pass when neccesary. Defensively they will try to stop the Cards running game cold, forcing them into passing situations in second and long and 3rd and long situations. When this happens, they will try and blitz Warner trying to make him make mistakes when under pressure, and possibly causing turnovers. During the regular season, the Steelers won 6 of their 12 games by 7 points or less. In their other 6 regular season wins, they won by as many as 17-31 points. In their 4 losses during the regular season, they lost by 9,7,4 and 17 points to the Titans.
Taking a look at the Cards, you pretty much know that they are going to depend on their passing game to win this game, as that's their most powerful weapon. They have two of the better wide outs in the league, and will have to take advantage of their strength in order to come out with a victory. But all of a sudden when the playoffs started, they found their running game reborn as well as a defense that could actually stop people. They've held the last three opponents best runners to less than 90 ypg. Their defense is actually stopping runners and causing turnovers in the process. When the Cards have the same or less TO's in a game, they come out on the winning end of the score. When they don't.....well....they don't!
Seems that a lot of "sharps" are looking for the Steelers to defer if they win the coin toss and let the Cards have the ball first on offense. I don't know if this will take place, but if it does, it could be a big mistake on the Steelers part. Why not take the ball first and try to score putting the Cards in a hole right away. If they defer, and the Cards get hot on the first series, they could find themselves in a hole and give the Cardinals the momentum they might need to win this game.
But here's how I see the game unfolding. When the Steelers have the ball, who knows? They just might turn Big Ben lose and surprise the Cards by passing right from the get -go, and then use their runnning game. But if it's the "normal" Steelers, they will most likely come out running, which will set up the play action pass if their running game is successful. The defense will show Warner different looks to try and confuse him and throw off balance as they blitz from all sides.
When the Cardinals have the ball, Warner will try and defeat the blitz with good reads and hitting his wide outs quickly on the sidelines or over the middle and hope they get some yardage after the catch like they've done all season. I can't see too much difference of how the Cards offense will attack the Steelers defense than they did with the Eagles. Warner should be able to attack the one weakness on the Steelers...their cornerbacks...in much the same manor that he attacked the Eagles backs. Now if he can keep the ball away from Palumalo, he could have a good afternoon.
The Cards defense will have to have another good defensive day against Willie Parker and hold him to reasonable yardage so the defense can get off the field and let the offense do what they do best.
A lot has been said about the Cards having an advantage by having at least two former Steeler coaches on their sideline, and it could have some validity in this contest. They say that Whisenhunt KNOWS Big Ben, and he will know what defenses to send at him when the Steelers have the ball to disrupt his passing patterns. Grimm should know what to expect from the Steelers defensive rush and will prepare the Cards for same.
So what's my choice in this game? Looks like I'm taking the CARDINALS +7 AND OVER 46.5. Some of the lines are slipping down to 6 but most are 6.5. I'd definitely buy up to 7 if your line isn't there already.
For some reason, the line moves and what the % bet on each team is very similar to what it was in the Cards-Eagles matchup. More bets on the Cards by a 55-45%, and the line moving down. However, I don't believe it. I think the public will be firmly on the Steelers, just like they were on the Eagles when it comes to game day. Well we know what happened in that game.
I've already also taken some money line bets on the Cards at +215, although they are at +210 about now, but might rise again tomorrow. I suggest you do the same. Even if you are taking the Steelers, it might not hurt to put a small "saver" bet on the Cards.....just in case.
So enjoy the game, and just remember, it's ONLY ONE GAME, so just don't go betting over your head because it's the biggest game of the year! There are plenty of games to bet in the coming months which may give you a better betting advantage than the Super Bowl. March Madness just isn't that far away.