Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday, February 1 when they meet at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay for Super Bowl XLIII.
Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as -7 point favorites versus the Cardinals, while the game's total is sitting at 47.
The Steelers defeated Baltimore 23-14 as a 6-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (35.5).
Ben Roethlisberger passed for 255 yards with a 65-yard touchdown strike to Santonio Holmes for Pittsburgh, while Troy Polamalu ran back an interception 40 yards for a touchdown.
The Cardinals upset Philadelphia 32-25 as a 3.5-point underdog in the NFC Championship Game. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (47).
Kurt Warner passed for 279 yards with four touchdowns for Arizona, and Larry Fitzgerald caught nine passes for 152 yards with three touchdowns in the win.
Regular season records:
Pittsburgh: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS
Arizona: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in February are 1-0
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 6-4
Arizona most recently:
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 5-5
After playing Philadelphia are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
PITTSBURGH (14 - 4) vs. ARIZONA (12 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 78-48 ATS (+25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Philadelphia vs. Arizona
Pittsburgh:
6-1 ATS off home win
32-16 ATS off game w/ TO margin of +3 or better
Arizona:
8-0 Over off a SU win as a dog
13-5 Over as an underdog
PITTSBURGH vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Five Stats You Should Know
By Matt Fargo
Sometimes it is the unknown or smaller stats that can make a difference in locating the Super Bowl winner. Matt Fargo takes a look at five categories you might not know about.
Sacks
When you talk about sacks, you automatically think about the Steelers because that is what the media has thrown at you. You will probably be surprised to know that the Cardinals are +3 in net sacks this season while the Steelers are +2 in net sacks. It isn’t a huge difference but Pittsburgh and its defense are being portrayed as the team that will be able to dominate in that category.
Cardinals left tackle Mike Gandy is far from in the spotlight but he has made life a lot easier for quarterback Kurt Warner. He has started 35 straight games since joining the Cardinals in 2007 and this year gave up only 6.5 sacks with just one holding penalty.
Winning the battle of the sacks usually means a Super bowl win. In the last 13 Super Bowls, the sack leader won 12 of those games and went 8-3-2 ATS. Edge Even.
Redzone
People tend to look at yardage and points but fail to look inside those numbers to see where they come from. Redzone scoring is where games are won and lost Pittsburgh is in good shape.
Despite having the 3rd ranked scoring offense, Arizona is 9th in redzone touchdown percentage at a 58.5 percent clip. The Steelers are 15th at 55.1 percent. The difference here is that the Cardinals scored 72 more redzone points while having 16 more possessions inside the 20-yard line.
Defensively, the Steelers were an NFL best, allowing redzone touchdowns only 33.3 percent of the time while Arizona allowed touchdowns 63.6 percent of the time which was 5th worst. The point differential amounted to 124 more points allowed by Arizona. Edge Pittsburgh.
Field Position
Field position is a pretty simple philosophy. A shorter field makes it easier on the offense and harder on the defense. These are two of the worst punting teams in the NFL as Arizona finished 31st in net punting while Pittsburgh finished 29th. The Cardinals however have the edge in punt returning, averaging 7.2 ypr while the Steelers averaged 6.0 ypr, 31st in the NFL.
In the Arizona 21-14 win last season against the Steelers, Cardinals receiver Steve Breaston ran a punt back for a touchdown which broke a 7-7 tie. Edge Arizona.
Defense Wins Championships
Past Super Bowls can give some significant information if you are in fact a history buff. Defenses have reigned supreme of late. The last four Super Bowl winners have allowed 15.5 ppg. The last eight Super Bowl winners have allowed 17 ppg. Of the 42 past Super Bowls, the losing team has scored 20 points or fewer 33 times.
What about the offense? The winning team has scored 30 points or more 21 times however, it has not happened since Super Bowl XXVIII. Based on this little bit of history, the defenses are in fact the catalysts and we know what that means here. Edge Pittsburgh.
Passer Rating
Of the 42 winning quarterbacks in Super Bowl history, 15 of those had passer ratings better than 100 throughout their playoff run. This included both Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 (101.6) and Kurt Warner in 1999 (100.0). Looking at this season, Roethlisberger has a passer rating of 90.5 while Warner has a passer rating of 111.9.
Considering Roethlisberger had a regular season rating of 80.1 while Warner had a rating of 96.9, this current pace is not surprising. If Warner keeps it up and wins the Super Bowl, it would be the 7th highest rating of all time. Keeping that pace will be difficult but achievable. Edge Arizona.
Super Bowl Stat Check
By Bodog
The Big Game has cranked out some big numbers over the years – like the $94.5 million wagered in Nevada alone for Super Bowl XL, and the $8-10 billion expected to change hands worldwide this Sunday when the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals do their thing. These 10 Super Bowl stats and factoids will help you get a chunk of that change and impress your fellow guests at the same time.
1. The Steelers have as many Super Bowl wins (five) as Arizona has playoff victories. The last time the Cardinals won a playoff game before this year was in 1998. The first time was for the 1947 NFL Championship, when the team was based in Chicago. A win on Sunday would make Pittsburgh the only franchise with six Super Bowls.
2. Arizona QB Kurt Warner holds the Super Bowl record for passing yards with 414 at SBXXXIV against the Tennessee Titans. Warner was with the St. Louis Rams at the time; he was named MVP of the game. His over/under for Sunday’s contest is a more modest 265.5 yards with the over priced at –120 (for the freshest lines, visit sports.bodoglife.com). Warner is also second on the SB passing list with 365 yards at SBXXXVI.
3. The favorite-over parlay was a winner in nine of the last 27 Super Bowls. The underdog-under came in seven times, the underdog-over five, and favorite-under three. Pushes claimed the rest. Two of the three favorite-under winners were the Steelers in the 2006 game and the Colts in 2007.
4. The over is 38-13 in Arizona’s last 51 games as the underdog. That’s even better than the 35-16 mark for the over in the Cardinals’ last 51 games overall.
5. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is ranked No. 51 out of 57 Super Bowl quarterbacks in passer rating at 22.52 during the SBXL victory over the Seattle Seahawks. Big Ben was 9-for-21 for 123 yards and a pair of picks. WR Antwaan Randle El threw the key 43-yard TD pass to Hines Ward in the fourth quarter, the first ever TD pass in the Super Bowl by a wideout.
6. The 2008 biannual NFL players survey had Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium ranked second for best playing field in the league. It had been first, but Arizona’s new stadium in Glendale is the new No. 1 (Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field was voted the worst). The natural Bermuda grass surface should hold up nicely Sunday under mostly sunny skies and temperatures around 60 degrees.
7. Pittsburgh RB Willie Parker holds the record for longest run at the Super Bowl, going 75 yards for the major against Seattle. Parker was held to 37 yards total when he faced the Cards in 2007. He’s a speed merchant with a generally poor feel for the power game; Arizona’s defensive line was ranked seventh this year in preventing runs of 10 yards or more.
8. The “0-7” and “7-0” squares on your Super Bowl squares pool are the most likely to cash in, according to Pro Football Reference. Based on NFL games played since the 2-point conversion came into play in 1994, a dollar played on either 07 or 70 should bring back about $3.80 at the end of the game. The “7-4” and “4-7” squares are a close second at $3.71. Last was “2-2” at a return of four cents on the dollar.
9. Pittsburgh left guard Chris Kemoeatu was the No. 204 overall pick (sixth round) of the 2005 NFL Draft. Kemoeatu took over the job after seven-time Pro Bowler Alan Faneca signed with the New York Jets – where he just made another Pro Bowl. Kemoeatu is listed at 6-foot-3 and 344 pounds; he’s not nearly as mobile or crafty as Faneca at this point, one of the key reasons Roethlisberger dropped from 32 TD passes last year to 17 this year.
10. Arizona has the highest pass-run ratio during the regular season of any team to ever reach the Super Bowl at 658-340, or 1.94. Only nine teams were more pass-oriented; none had a winning record. Warner’s 1999 St. Louis Rams had a 1.31 pass-run ratio; the only team to go higher and take the title was the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 1.47.
Trends that matter: Super Bowl stats and numbers
By MATT SEVERANCE
Nothing beats the Super Bowl for prop bets, and I've compiled a few nuggets from various sources for you to ponder before putting your money down for Sunday's game.
-Tails has been the winning side in nine of the last 11 games. The NFC has won the Super Bowl coin toss 11 straight times and 14 of the past 16 games. This is the first year the winner of the toss can defer. Pittsburgh usually always defers if it wins the coin flip.
-The over/under for Sunday's game generally is between 46.5 and 47. Just two of the past nine Super Bowls have had final scores of 48 points or more. Teams shut out in the first half are 0-11 (no Super Bowl has been scoreless at the half). Teams gaining a double-digit lead at any point are 37-1.
-Over the past 13 Super Bowl where there have been two different seeds, the lower seed has covered 12 out of 13 times.
-Teams that score more than 32 points in the Super Bowl are 18-0 straight up.
-Only one team didn’t find the painted grass was the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl VI, a 24-3 loss to Dallas (the Vikings were held to six points in Super Bowl IX, but that was due to a missed extra point). There has never been a shutout.
-The underdog is 2-1 straight up and against the spread in the three previous Tampa Bay hosted Super Bowls and the under has gone 2-1. The last four Super Bowls have gone under the number as well.
-Super Bowl favorites are 27-15 SU and 23-17-2 ATS. Only seven times has the favorite won the game but failed to cover the number.
-Super Bowl teams scoring first are 27–15; 14–7 with a touchdown, 12–8 with a field goal and 1–0 with a safety.
-The team that has finished the game with the most rushing attempts has won over 70 percent of the time.
-First-time Super Bowl teams are 8-18 straight-up and 9-17 ATS. In the last 11 years there have been seven first-time Super Bowl teams with just the Ravens and Bucs winning.
-This year’s AccuScore forecast has the Steelers winning by an average of 27.1-20.6. Super Bowl teams that score 27 or more points are 24-3-1 ATS. Super Bowl teams that score 20 points or less are just 8-31-1 ATS. An EA Sports simulation had Pittsburgh winning 28-24 with a fourth-quarter rally.
- Arizona is playing in its first Super Bowl. In the other 26 Super Bowls, where a team was appearing in its first one, the first-timer is 8-18.
- Four Super Bowls had two first-timers in them, meaning the first timers went 4-4 SU and ATS. If we remove those numbers from the stat above, first-timers are just 4-14 straight up and 5-12-1 ATS.
- Pointspread numbers from the regular season: 7-point favorites: 18-3 SU, 6.5-point favorites: 9-8 SU, all favorites: 176-79 SU
25 Super Bowl Trends
By Dr. Vegas
Super Bowl XLIII is here and everyone is looking for any scrap of information they can find to get the edge. Dr. Vegas is here to add more info to your overwhelming amount of data floating around out there. With pages and pages of trends to pour through, I decided to whittle down the list to 25 meaningful ones.
You will immediately notice that there are a lack of trends for Pittsburgh, which is simply the way it goes sometimes. Pittsburgh is not following a loss or an under, which usually pops their best trends. You wouldn’t want me to fabricate some just to include them would you? You’ll also notice that Arizona happens to be in the situation for many trends pointing to the over. And finally, every trend on this list points to the total. You can interpret that how you see fit. It’s rare for me to run so many numbers and only come up with significant trends on the total, but in this case that’s exactly what happened. These numbers go back 5 seasons, to the start of the 2004 season.
And now for the list:
Specific Team Trends
Arizona is 53-29-1 to the over
Arizona playing as a dog is 37-16-1 to the over
Arizona is 12-3 to the over in games where the line is between 7 and 9.5
Arizona after winning 1 game is 24-9-0 to the over
Arizona playing as a dog after winning 1 game is 17-7-0 to the over
Arizona after winning 1 ATS is 26-12-0 to the over
Arizona playing as a dog after winning 1 ATS is 20-9-0 to the over
Arizona after winning SU and ATS is 23-6-0 to the over
Arizona playing as a dog after winning SU and ATS is 17-6-0 to the over
Arizona playing as a dog after going over is 22-10-0 to the over
Arizona following a home game is 27-12-0 to the over
Arizona playing as a dog after a home game is 22-6-0 to the over
Arizona after winning a home game SU is 17-5-0 to the over
Arizona playing as a dog after winning a home game is 13-4-0 to the over
Arizona after winning a home game ATS is 17-4-0 to the over
Arizona playing as a dog after winning a home game ATS is 14-3-0 to the over
Arizona winning a home game SU and ATS is 16-3-0 to the over
Arizona playing as a dog after winning a home game SU and ATS is 13-3-0 to the over
General trends for any team which match one of the teams playing (Matching team in parentheses)
(Pittsburgh & Arizona) after winning ATS and going over in a playoff game is 25-10-1 to the under
(Arizona) playing as a dog after winning ATS and going over in a playoff game is 16-3-1 to the under
(Pittsburgh & Arizona) following an ATS and SU playoff win that went over is 24-9-1 to the under
(Pittsburgh) following a playoff SU and ATS win that went over is 16-3-1 to the under
(Arizona) playing as a dog following a playoff SU and ATS win that went over is 15-3-1 to the under
(Arizona) playing as a dog following a home playoff ATS win that went over is 10-2-1 to the under
(Arizona) playing as a dog following a home playoff ATS and SU win that went over is 9-2-1 to the under