Super Bowl XLIV Preview
By Scott Rickenbach
After watching the Vikings pile up 475 yards against the Saints in the NFC Championship Game and still lose, my thoughts turned to what has happened in past Super Bowls after a team is outgained but still makes it to the big game. Keep in mind, New Orleans only gained 257 yards in the NFC Championship Game. That's right, the Saints scored 31 points on just 257 yards in a game that truly burned up those of us that had tickets on the under 54. That said; one has to be curious how a team like the Saints would then fare in the Super Bowl. Surprisingly, a team that was outgained in the conference championship game has historically fared well in the Super Bowl. These teams are 4-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. The fact that the Saints are a good size dog also makes them attractive in this spot. However, one of these teams was Pittsburgh in '95 when they were a big dog of +13.5 and lost by 10. Of course, a ten point loss here will not do Saints backers any good.
What about the experience factor here? The Saints are making their first ever super bowl appearance while the Colts just won the Super Bowl three years ago. That should be a huge edge for Indianapolis here, right? Actually, this is similar to last year's Super Bowl. Pittsburgh was playing for the 2nd time within 3 years while Arizona was playing for the first time ever. Even though the Steelers won the game, the Cardinals got the cover. Surprisingly, over the last 15 years when a team is back in the Super Bowl within a three year period they have not fared well. Teams in this situation have only gotten the cash once in eight occurrences over the past 15 Super Bowls. However, even with the Cardinals covering against the Steelers in last year's Super Bowl, teams playing in their first Super Bowl and facing a team with SB experience have covered just 6 of 17 such instances.
As for this year's total in the Super Bowl, it is interesting to note the huge number posted on this game. Of course both teams’ struggles to stop the pass last week could have something to do with that. The Saints gave up 310 passing yards to the Vikings and the Colts allowed over 300 yards through the air against the Jets. More defensive struggles could be on tap here considering Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are the "pilots" in this one. However, the last six times a Super Bowl total has been at least 50 points, four of those six games stayed under the total. However, in Super Bowl history there has been 14 times where the losing team scored at least 19 points. 11 of those 14 games went over the total.
Can either the Colts or Saints be held below 19 here? In their last 17 games (including two playoff games) the Colts have been held under 19 points just four times. As for the Saints, in 18 games, including two playoff games, they've been held under 19 points just three times. Before last year's over however, the past 4 Super Bowls had all stayed under. A lot of offensive talent on these teams but the game is being played on a natural grass surface and the total is a big one and likely to end up being the biggest closing number on a total in Super Bowl history.
Indianapolis and New Orleans Clash in Super Bowl XLIV
Brad Diamond Sports
New Orleans Saints (15-3 SU) (9-9 ATS)
The Saints and MVP Drew Brees have never appeared, yet alone, achieved success on Super Sunday. QB Brees will make his first career start in the Super Bowl with great hopes of staging a wild party on Bourbon Street with a major UPSET of the Indianapolis Colts. Ironically, the leader of the Saints is an after thought when it comes to quarterbacks in the NFL, considering that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are still knocking down records and winning championships. But, here is a chance for the Purdue graduate to make his mark on the national stage. For those who like the Saints chances this Sunday, Brees has the sports-betting public starting to wonder if he is setting the fan base up for a major letdown when the flag is raised. You see, over the last week Brees has been on the cover of Sports Illustrated, been a guest on the Jay Leno Show and visited with Katie Couric. Not actually, the best way to cultivate a direct spiritual path to Super Bowl History.
When HC Sean Payton (Dallas) took over the franchise head coaching position we knew it would not be long before the Saints developed into a dynamite offensive football team. The Key would be turning around a horrific defense that couldn ' t chew gum and walk at the same time. Enter DC Gregg Williams who supported free agent acquisitions, trades and player development to bring some respect to the attack side of the football. Williams changed the defense up going more to a 4-3 style with crafted substitutions to challenge the play making abilities of the opposition. Over the initial 12 weeks of the regular campaign the defense purged 36 turnovers, but the unit has slowed because of injuries and facing a tougher schedule down the stretch, including the playoff games. When you look at the overall conceptual design of New Orleans, the “tic for tack” approach replicates much what the late DC Jimmy Johnson had fused in Philadelphia. The Saints are not blessed with great defensive personnel overall in the starting 11, but as a unit, they can be highly productive. Darren Sharper and Sedrick Ellis are major performers to be charted when facing the Manning led Colts. Scary, the Saints finished #21 in total defense this year allowing 5.5 yards per play. Impute the psyche of Peyton Manning and can envision #18 is ready to go big time. So, DC Williams has stated, “we will use different looks to counter the play calling at the line of scrimmage with hand signals to, hopefully, distract Manning.”
In closing, just remember the Saints are an “offensive” football team with game breakers in Brees, Bush, Colston, Meachem, Shockey and Henderson over top, while Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush counter in difficult running situations. So, the Bayou Boys ' can score with any other club in the league. There is one athlete that scares me and that ' s K Garrett Hartley who beat the Vikings in the playoffs with a FG. Just a reminder, this game is being played in an open air Stadium in Miami where rain does fall fairly consistently at this time of year.
Indianapolis Colts (16-2, SU) (12-6 ATS)
QB Peyton Manning, the “Sheriff” or “Mystic” as some have called him is looking to achieve another Super Bowl victory when he lines up to face the Saints aggressive defense. Although spectacular, Manning is just 9-8 SU in playoff encounters. New HC Jim Caldwell took over for Tony Dungy this season and promptly directed his club to an incredible 14-0 start. The only head coaching experience prior to this season for Caldwell was down in Wake Forest where he was tagged a “players coach.” Caldwell had a losing career as a Demon Deacon. However, Indy finished 16-2 SU without former stars Marvin Harrison and Tony Gonzalez in the lineup, while suffering through injury periods of Wayne and Clark. Manning and Caldwell should be thankful for the front office ability to bring Collie and Garcon into the fold. Those two had no national reputation, but added depth to the skill set and helped ensure a playoff season, and now maybe a Super Bowl.
Most likely, the Key to an Indianapolis win will rest on the offensive line and their success in forging holes for RB Joseph Addai. The Colts finished #32 in the NFL rushing the football at 3.5 yards per carry. We do note, Addai is used much like Brian Westbrook of Philadelphia, i.e., catching the short pass for first downs when needed most. Defensively, Indianapolis finished #18 in total defense and #8 in scoring defense. Obviously, the Blue and White has sufficient speed and tackling ability to play with anyone in the NFL on the defensive side, despite some physical mismatches. The Dwight Freeney injury is a major issue, both he and CB Powers did not practice on Wednesday. As far as the kicking game, I prefer having Matt Stover of the Colts making the important conversion in such a major platform, rather than his counterpart.
Statistical and Technical Notes
Looking at UNDERDOGS, the Saints will most likely be the choice of the sports-betting public. Since 2002 the doggie has covered 6 of the last 8 Big Dance events. Last year Pittsburgh had to come from behind as a chalk (-7) to win the game SU in the 4th quarter over the game Arizona Cardinals 27-23. Chalks in the 3 -6 point range have gone 7-4 ATS. In Super Bowl history 32 games have had winning margins of 7 points or hire. That equates to 74.4% of the sampled results. Only two dome teams have won a Super Bowl, Indianapolis in 2007 and St. Louis in 2000. Ironically, this will be the first time in history that two dome teams will vie for the ring outdoors!
Super Bowl XLIV Preview
StatFox.com
Miami hosts this year’s Super Bowl XLIV matchup between New Orleans and Indianapolis, and being as how the Colts’ Super Bowl win in the same city three years ago was marred by quagmire-like conditions, a game that went under the total, it would be a wise move to check the forecasts on Sunday morning before hitting the confirm button on you wagers. Ironically, the pointspread for that game (Colts -6.5 over Bears) is similar to this year’s contest (Colts -5.5 over Saints), despite the fact that again, the NFC team boasts better all-around stats from the season. Does that mean we should expect a repeat of that game, or is New Orleans fully capable of pulling the upset? While we’re thinking of it, is there anything else from past Super Bowl action that can be used to handicap this year’s game? Let’s dig through the history of the Super Bowl and see what we can come up with.
Before beginning, one word of caution always has to accompany an article surrounding Super Bowl handicapping, and that is to remember that it is simply one game, the singular most wagered event in all of sports, and thus heavily weighted by oddsmakers to attract public action. How else could one explain that Indy is the favorite of 5.5-points, despite having a lesser scoring differential against a weaker schedule? Let’s face it, the line was initially set up at Indy -4 because of the “Peyton Manning Factor”, and has been bet upward since due to bettors’ fascination with him. Still, being as how it is just one game, I caution you to wager wisely, as no one game should outweigh a season’s worth of hard work or a springtime of gambling debt.
The Super Bowl game line is set up differently than one in the regular season, simply because of the vast number of amateurs partaking in the betting festivities for perhaps their only time all year. It’s kind of like going to church on Christmas, with the priest adjusting his message for the rare visitors. In the same way, oddsmakers adjust their line-setting policies. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. If you do a search on “NFL Power Ratings” currently, you’ll find that most sites indicate the line for this year’s game should be between Indy -2 and New Orleans -2. The current line is much higher. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side. That is the reason for the inflated line.
The other challenge that faces bettors is that the Super Bowl offers some variation from the normal handicapping routine. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. If you choose to wager on numerous different options, be prepared to find yourself conflicted near the end of the game. As always, it does pay off to do your homework.
Hopefully, with everything we’re offering for Sunday’s New Orleans-Indianapolis showdown, you will at least go into the betting process prepared. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 43 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to make educated selections.
Super Bowl Stat Angles
Because of the extra week of preparation and the neutral field environment, neither team in a Super Bowl game will have any artificial advantages. Both are quality teams with exceptional coaching staffs, so they will be prepared to play. As was proven two years ago in the Giants mega-upset of the Patriots, there is no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl. What I’m getting at is that winning games of this magnitude comes down to execution. Some teams might show up planning to pull a few gimmicks, but they won’t be able to do so for the full 60 minutes. The eventual winner is the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays, and avoids catastrophic mistakes like turning the ball over. In past Super Bowls, the team that accomplished these goals has nearly always came out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.
Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that I like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-8 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 38-5 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).
In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (85%). Amazingly, the last three times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last three world championships.
Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-12 SU & 30-10-3 ATS (75%).
Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-2 SU & 32-5-1 ATS (86%). In ’09, Arizona ran for more yards, turned the ball over fewer times, and possessed the ball longer than Pittsburgh to cover the pointspread, yet lost on the scoreboard.
Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.
Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Last year I cited the 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh as the game that dramatically changed the route to becoming a champion in the NFL. That was the first time a #6 seed emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. Since then we have seen wildcard teams Indianapolis & the Giants win titles. In last year’s game, we had a team that won just nine games in the regular season come within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. While the Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion, they still managed to cover the pointspread, again defying all that we had come to learn about Super Bowl handicapping prior to ’06. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs. Well, thankfully, order has been restored to the NFL playoff system, as two #1 seeds will be playing for all the marbles on Sunday, for the first time in 16 years.
With that cautionary note out of the way, here are some historical Super Bowl trends, stats, and other tidbits that you can either use to handicap Sunday’s game, or at the very least, offer up at your parties to show off in front of game-watching friends. While on that subject, you can start off by “wow-ing” your company with this bit of interesting Super Bowl history: In the last nine Super Bowl games, there have been NINE different NFC representatives, but just four from the AFC. Enjoy the trends, where appropriate I will give the most recent game trend.
ATS and Money Line Trends
Favorites in the Super Bowl are 30-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-19-3 (52.5%). However, over the past eight years, the underdog owns a 6-2 ATS (75.0%) edge. The only two favorites to win and cover in that span were Indy in ’07 and Pittsburgh in ’06.
Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. It doesn’t appear that this year’s line will reach that high, but be sure to follow throughout the week.
The straight up winner is 34-6-3 ATS (85%) in the 43 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-3 ATS the past six years.
The NFC holds a 22-21 SU and 22-18-3 (55%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in ’03.
#1 seeds from the NFC are on a 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS slide since 2001 in the Super Bowl.
The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-11-2 ATS (8.3%) in the last 14 Super Bowl games! This would be our golden nugget except for the fact that both Indianapolis and New Orleans were #1 seeds out of their respective conferences.
The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
Teams playing in their first Super Bowl against an experienced club are 5-2-1 ATS in their L8.
In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.1 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.4 PPG, an average winning margin 14.7 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).
Over/Under Trends
The most important point to note about the total for this year’s Super Bowl, set at 56.5 at presstime, is the HIGHEST EVER in the history of the game.
Overall, in the 25 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the OVER is 15-9-1.
There have been 45.4 PPG scored in the Super Bowl on average, however, over the last five years, that figure is just 40.6. In fact, last year’s game snapped a string of four straight UNDER’s, and was the highest scoring Super Bowl since ’04, despite having the lowest total.
The last five Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 47 or higher have gone UNDER.
The ’09 Super Bowl was one of only 10 in history that saw both teams reach the 20-point mark. All seven that had totals were OVER’s.
The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 15 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 21.5 PPG. However, a caveat, the last two OVER games (’04 & ’09) were decided by 3 & 4 points.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles by round in the playoffs, here are some trends and the qualifying play for this Sunday’s game based upon teams’ stats headed into the big game. If the stat isn’t listed here, there wasn’t any significant trend forming.
Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating have lost four straight games against the spread.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
The team with the better won-lost record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-9-2 ATS (31%) slide.
- Qualifiers for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 1-8-1 ATS (10%) over the last decade.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
The team that converts a better percentage of 3rd down attempts headed into the Super Bowl is just 2-7-1 ATS (20%) in the L10 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per rushing attempt on offense is 9-5-2 ATS (64%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: On NEW ORLEANS
The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per passing attempt on offense is just 4-8-2 ATS (64%) in the L14 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
The team with the edge in offensive yards per point is on a 2-6 ATS (25%) slide in the L8 Super Bowl games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 0-6 ATS (0%) over the L6 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
The Super Bowl team that allows yards per rushing attempt on defense is 3-8-2 ATS (27%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
If you were counting, that was five Against New Orleans, and four either Against Indianapolis or On the Saints. Is that a hint of what’s to come?
New Orleans (15-3, 9-9 ATS) vs. Indianapolis (16-2, 12-6 ATS)
(at Miami, Fla.)
The No. 1 seeds from the NFC and the AFC collide for the first time in 17 years when the Saints and the Colts head to Sun Life Stadium to battle for the Lombardi Trophy.
New Orleans outlasted Minnesota 31-28 in overtime two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game, winning on Garrett Hartley’s 40-yard field goal to reach its first Super Bowl, but failing to cash as a four-point home favorite. The game was really decided by turnovers, though, as the Saints forced five while committing just one, the biggest among those a Brett Favre INT late in regulation when the Vikings were in position to attempt a game-winning field goal.
All those turnovers helped the Saints overcome an otherwise off day, as they were outgained 475-257, with the defense surrendering 310 passing yards and 165 rushing yards. QB Drew Brees was a rather ordinary 17 of 31 for 197 yards passing, but he had no turnovers and three TD throws. A week earlier in the divisional round, New Orleans plastered defending NFC champion Arizona 45-14 as a seven-point home favorite.
Indianapolis took a while to figure out the Jets two weeks ago in the AFC Championship Game, falling behind 17-6 late in the second quarter, but the Colts then scored the final 24 points in a 30-17 victory as a hefty eight-point home chalk. In helping his team reach the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four years, QB Peyton Manning carved up the league’s No. 1 total defense, No. 1 pass defense and No. 1 scoring defense, completing 26 of 39 passes for 377 yards and three TDs with no INTs or fumbles.
The Colts finished with 461 total yards against New York, and although Indy allowed 388, its defense stifled New York’s No. 1-ranked rushing game. Facing a unit that averaged a whopping 170 ypg in playoff wins at Cincinnati and San Diego, the Colts allowed just 86 yards on 29 carries. Indy’s victory over the Jets came a week after it shut down Baltimore 20-3 as a 6½-point home favorite in the divisional round.
New Orleans is in the postseason after a two-year hiatus, as they lost the NFC Championship Game 39-14 to Chicago following the 2006 regular season, with the Bears going on to face the Colts in the Super Bowl. This time around, the Saints reached the Super Bowl for the first time in the team’s 43-year history.
Indianapolis is in the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season – one more appearance than New Orleans’ complete playoff history. The Colts are going for their second Super Bowl title in four years, having beaten Chicago 29-17 as a 6½-point favorite following the 2006 season, also in Miami. The franchise also appeared in two Super Bowls when located in Baltimore, beating the Cowboys 16-3 in Super Bowl V and losing the infamous Super Bowl III to Joe Namath and the Jets, 16-7.
These teams have had three meaningful meetings in the past nine seasons, and the last two have been Indianapolis blowouts. The Colts were dealt a 34-20 loss as a six-point road ‘dog in November 2001, but they hammered New Orleans 55-21 as a 2½-point road chalk in September 2003, then drubbed the Saints 41-10 as a 5½-point home favorite in the 2007 season opener. The SU winner is on a 5-0 ATS roll in this occasional rivalry.
New Orleans led the NFL in total offense (403.8 ypg) and scoring offense (31.9 ppg) in the regular season. In fact, the Saints scored 30 points or more nine times in the first 13 games and had seven games of 35 points or more, including four in the 40s. QB Drew Brees engineered a passing attack that averaged 272.2 ypg (fourth). Including two playoff wins, Brees has completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 4,832 yards with 40 TDs and 11 INTs. In the regular season, the Texas native was the top rated QB (109.6), completing an NFL-record 70.6 percent of his passes.
Defensively, New Orleans was not quite as sharp, allowing 21.3 points (20th) and 357.8 total yards per game (25th), but it posted a plus-11 turnover margin, third-best in the NFL. Including the two playoff wins, the Saints are now up to plus-17, having forced seven postseason turnovers while committing just one. New Orleans also led the NFL in defensive TDs with eight, twice as many as any other team.
Behind the NFL’s second-best passing attack (282.2 ypg), Indy averaged 363.1 total ypg (ninth) and 26 ppg (seventh). Manning threw for exactly 4,500 yards and had 33 TDs against 16 INTs, and those numbers jump to 5,123 yards, 38 TDs and 17 INTs when you include the playoffs. WR Reggie Wayne (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs) and TE Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TDs) led a receiving corps that saw five guys catch at least 47 passes..
Indianapolis allowed 339.2 ypg (18th) in regular-season action, but it gave up just 19.2 ppg (ninth) and continued its stingy ways in the postseason, surrendering just 20 points in two games. The Colts had a nominal plus-2 turnover margin in the regular season, but they are plus-3 in the postseason, having tied the Jets at one turnover apiece after posting a 4-1 margin in the victory over the Ravens.
Despite their SU success through the first 11 games of the season (8-3 ATS), the Saints are in ATS ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-4 after a SU win, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-4 in the postseason and 1-3-1 as an underdog. On the plus side of the ledger, the underdog has cashed in the last two Super Bowls and five of the last seven (2-5 SU). In fact, favorite is 10-4 SU in the last 14 Super Bowls, but just 4-8-2 ATS.
The Colts, are on spread-covering sprees of 7-3 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 7-2 laying points, 5-1 after a spread cover and 15-5-2 after a SU win. Plus, Manning is 9-8 SU and ATS in the playoffs in his career, but 6-2 SU and ATS in his last eight postseason outings, including 4-0 SU and ATS on the Colts run to the title three years ago. The SU winner has covered the spread in all 17 of Manning’s playoff games.
New Orleans is on “over” rolls of 5-0-1 in the playoffs, 49-23-2 against winning teams and 19-9 with the Saints coming off a SU win. Likewise, Indianapolis is on “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after both a SU and ATS win and 4-1 as chalk, though the total has gone low in seven of the Colts’ last 10 playoff games.
Finally, last year’s Super Bowl – a 27-23 Pittsburgh win over Arizona – cleared the 46½-point posted total, ending a four-year “under” run in the big game.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and OVER
What bettors need to know: Super Bowl XLIV
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 56.5)
In what is expected to be the most widely viewed Super Bowl in NFL history, the hype is nearly suffocating.
The New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts will meet in Super Bowl XLIV for a chance to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy and be crowned world champions.
The Colts appear in their fourth Super Bowl in franchise history and all three prior championships were played in Miami.
New Orleans secured its first Super Bowl berth and, amid the city’s recent hardships, many are calling the Saints a team of destiny.
Weather or not
Showers smattered South Florida during the week leading up to the Super Bowl, but weekend thunderstorms that were expected have been removed from the forecast.
The weather at kickoff is projected to be around 63 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures will dip into the upper 50s as the game goes on and a north-northwest wind (diagonally across field) of 5-7 mph will be present.
"We're prepared for anything," Colts linebacker Gary Brackett said. "Obviously, you play in Miami for that great weather; but if it's rain, we've done that before and we'll know how to handle ourselves.”
Line dance
The line for the game has incurred the greatest degree of fluctuation in recent Super Bowl history.
And despite the current economic climate, Vegas insiders expect this to be the most wagered on championship game ever.
The majority of sportsbooks on the strip opened with a spread of 3 or 3.5 points in favor of the Colts. The earliest of action actually came in on the Saints, but within a half hour sharps had bumped the spread to 4.5 or 5.
This is where the spread became available to most consumers via the offshore market and by Monday morning after the conference championship games the number had elevated to 5.5 or 6.
The spread remained stagnant until the Monday of Super Bowl week when the significant injury of Dwight Freeney was announced. At this point, Saints backers surfaced and the number dipped back down 5 at most shops.
By Thursday morning, the majority of books were offering 4.5 points and all the favorite-heavy outlets had dropped to 5. Currently, a few places are still holding the handful of points but most are working with 4.5.
The Super Bowl total opened in Vegas at 55 or 55.5 while most offshore books posted an initial number of 56.
With two high-octane offenses set to square off, the total steadily crept upward during the past two weeks and a few 57s can be found out there but most windows have held the number of 56.5.
Moneylines got up to as high as -230 for the Colts, but have come back down to as low as -180 (Saints +160) during this week’s overall decrease.
Earlier in the week, three experts in the industry projected where the spread would settle at kickoff and one guessed 4, the other 5.5 and a third 6, further driving home the point that this is a volatile game for bettors. Another Vegas oddsmaker predicted the apex for the total would be 57.
The midweek numbers collected revealed that 68 percent of the spread action was coming in on Indianapolis and 76 percent of the money for the total was taking the over.
Infirmary report
The most impactful injury surfaced Monday when news broke that All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney had torn a ligament in his ankle.
Considered by many to be the Colts best player on the defensive side of the ball, Freeney has not fully tested the ankle since the injury. The team’s medical staff has been treating the injury with an oxygen chamber and Freeney has attempted to strengthen the ankle by walking barefoot on South Beach.
Historically, players have sucked it up and played in the Super Bowl because it is the biggest game of their careers. Guys like Hines Ward, Tom Brady and Terrell Owens all came into the game injured but played.
“This is the biggest game there is and I am going to try to do everything in my power to go back out there,” Freeney said. “If (team officials) say Saturday, 'You can do this, but it would really be risky to your career,' then I'm not going to do that.”
The fact that Freeney has never once come out and unequivocally stated he was playing has to leave some doubt of his availability. At media day on Tuesday, Freeney was reported as saying, “If I'm not playing, we should be all right."
Later in the week, Freeney reiterated his intention to play but again, it came with a disclaimer, “As long as I can go out there and have some agility and be able to push off…I'll be fine.”
Colts starting cornerback Jerraud Powers is also questionable for the game with a left foot injury. The rookie practiced on Friday this week and insists he will be ready.
"It's coming along fine," Powers said. "I'm starting to cut and move on it, and there's no doubt in my mind that I'll be out there Sunday.”
Reggie Wayne aggravated his knee in Friday’s practice but it wasn’t a major setback. Starting left guard Ryan Lilja was added to the Indianapolis injury report with a sore back but returned to practice Friday and is expected to play.
The Saints roster heads into the game healthy for the most part. Only fourth-string running back Lynell Hamilton missed practice Wednesday but a few other key players were limited.
Tight end Jeremy Shockey, safety Darren Sharper and linebacker Jonathan Vilma have all been dealing with knee problems throughout the postseason but went through the primary drills in limited fashion during practice this week.
Shockey’s gingerly manner displayed on the field the last two games has translated into an adjustment with the Super Bowl props. Shockey caught a single pass during the NFC championship and registered only three receptions in the Divisional round. Oddsmakers have given Shockey an over/under reception total of 3.
Stat pack
New Orleans boasted the top-ranked total offense in 2009 with 403.8 yards from scrimmage per game. The Saints also had the No. 1 scoring offense (31.9 ppg), fourth-best passing offense (272.2 ypg) and a sixth-ranked rushing offense (131.6 ypg).
Indianapolis flaunted a Top-10 total offense as well at 363.1 yards per outing and the No. 2-ranked passing offense with a 282.2 ypg average. The team’s scoring proficiency wasn’t as prolific as in years past, but still managed to post 29.0 ppg.
The ground game was the crutch of the Colts offensive attack, ranking last in the league at 80.9 ypg and 3.5 yards per attempt. The last team to finish last in rushing and reach the Super Bowl was the 2008 Arizona Cardinals.
Both teams ranked in the bottom half of the league standings in team defense with Indy surrendering 339.2 ypg and New Orleans giving up 357.8 ypg.
The Saints struggled against the pass this season, finishing ranked 26th in the league with 235.6 ypg relinquished through the air. The Colts defensive deficiencies came in the run-stopping department where they gave up more than 125 yards per outing.
New Orleans ranked No. 4 in the league in kick return average (24.4 ypr) this year and will look to attack Indy’s kick return defense that finished second-to-last (25.3 ypr).
The Colts defense has flexed its muscles this postseason, much like it did during the Super Bowl run in 2007. Indianapolis has held its two opponents to an average of 10.0 ppg and recorded three interceptions.
The Saints, who have one of the most opportunistic defenses in the NFL, also have three picks during the playoffs as well as five forced fumbles.
Both teams have experienced a surplus of points this postseason with the Colts averaging 25.0 points in their two games and the Saints totaling 38.0 ppg.
Manning exposed the league’s top-ranked pass defense in the conference championship game for 377 yards and a trio of scores while Drew Brees has thrown for three touchdowns in each of the Saints playoff games.
So we meet again
The last time these two teams met was in Week 1 of the 2007 campaign. While there has been some turnover from those rosters, many of the core players and coaches remain the same.
The Colts crushed New Orleans at the RCA Dome, 41-10, as 5.5-point favorites. Manning completed 18-of-30 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns. Wideout Reggie Wayne hauled in seven receptions for 115 and two scores while Joseph Addai rumbled for 118 yards and touchdown.
The Saints offense could only muster a field goal in the game with the team’s only touchdown coming from a 55-yard fumble return.
Brees threw for a measly 192 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. New Orleans was outscored 31-0 in the second half.
"It just felt like we never got in sync," Brees said after the game.
"Our inability to convert third downs and keep the ball hurt us,” said coach Sean Payton.
Bulletin board material
While there haven’t been any guarantees or much trash-talking from the players heading into this Super Bowl, a couple of coaches have provided some locker room motivation.
Last week, Saints defensive coordinator Greg Williams outlined one way to beat the Colts.
"The big thing is that [Manning] throws the ball so early that we're going to have to do a good job of finding ways to get to him and when we do get to him we're going to have to make sure he gets a couple 'remember me' shots when we get there,” he said. “And the only thing you’d like for me to say is that if it happens you hope he doesn’t get back up and play again.
"A lot of times guys are going to try to go down and not take a shot. We want to beat them to the ground. We say they're not down until they bounce twice.”
Former Colts head coach, Tony Dungy, was obviously biased when predicting the winner of the Super Bowl but gave a confident declaration Indianapolis would emerge victorious.
"I think they're going to be so far ahead that people are going to say, 'Oh, ho-hum, [Manning] played a good game, they won by two scores, the Colts won their second championship.
"He's going to have those rings Sunday night. I don't think [the game] is going to be close."
Prop shop
Prop bets have become an appendage of Super Bowl betting. Some sportsbooks offer close to 500 of them and just about anything one can imagine can be wagered on.
Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton said a Drew Brees touchdown total prop has seen the most action this week. The over/under is set at 1.5 TDs and the juice at midweek was -180. Brees failed to reach the two-touchdown mark in only six of his 18 games played this season.
Another popular prop bet is the Eli Manning appearance total. The number of 2.5 (-150) moved to 3 (-160) overnight this week at Bodog.com. In the final few minutes of the 2008 Super Bowl when Eli was leading his team down the field, the TV cameras cut to Peyton four times.
Facts and trends
If a team scores more than 32 points in the Super Bowl they are a perfect 18-0 straight up. The Saints have averaged 38.0 ppg this postseason while the Colts team total for the game is set at 31.
Super Bowl favorites that score less than 30 points are 3-11 ATS in the last 20 years.
The NFC has only won one Super Bowl in the last six years.
The NFC is 6-2 SU when the same seeds face each other in the Super Bowl.
Teams that lead at halftime in the Super Bowl are 33-8 straight up.
In the 43-year history of the Super Bowl, only nine times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the spread.
The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight Super Bowls.
Teams that win the Super Bowl time of possession battle are 30-10-3 ATS.
The average total in Super Bowls played in Miami is 45.9 points.
The total has gone over in 15 of last 23 Super Bowls.
Four Super Bowls in Miami were determined by four points or fewer.
Not one Super Bowl has gone into overtime.
Indianapolis went 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS versus the NFC in 2009, winning those games by a margin of 19.5 points.
New Orleans went 4-0 SU and ATS against the AFC this season with a 16.8 ppg winning margin.
The Saints are 1-6 ATS since beating the Patriots on Nov. 30
The Colts went 7-1 ATS when they scored 30 points or more this season
Indianapolis is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games on grass.
Super Bowl Shootout
BY SportsPic
Super Bowl XLIV in Miami featuring Payton Manning's Indianapolis Colts squaring off against Drew Breese's New Orleans Saints has the markings of a toss-for-toss shootout. We’ve got two high-powered quarterbacks in Manning who guided Colts to a 16-2 (12-6 ATS) mark scoring 25.9 points per game on 363.11 total yards split between 282.3 in the air, 80.3 on the ground and Drew Breese who spearheaded a Saints squad going 15-3 (9-9 ATS) notching 32.6 points per game on 396.5 total yards (263.2 PY, 132.0 RY). Anticipating offensive fireworks oddsmakers opened the 'Over' / 'Under' at 55.5 but the highest total in Super Bowl history has moved to 57 at some locales. In general a total of 50 or higher is a classic 'contrarian' position. Consider that league wise in both regular and post season this year we have seen 12 totals at 50 or higher and the 'Under' prevailed in eight for a 66.6% win rate (8-4 O/U). Of those, 11 involved Saints and or Colts with a 7-4 'Under' mark. As for 'Super Sunday', since the 89/90 season there have been five with a total of 50 or more resulting in 4 'Under' 1 'Over' with squads combining for 48.0 points/game. Will these two pass-happy QB's make a fool of this contrarian ?? Wouldn't be the first time with egg on my face but one must make a stand. So, it's 'Under' knowing Colts last seventeen playoff/SB appearances the average score has been 45.6 with the 'Under' prevailing in eleven of the contests (11 'Under' 6 'Over') including 7-1 'Under' away from home and that Saints are 10-5 'Under' last fifteen as road dogs of 3.5 to 10.0, 15-7 'Under' the past 22 knocking heads with the AFC.
Super Bowl XLIV Preview
By Larry Ness
While a Brett vs Peyton Super Bowl surely had a certain 'sex appeal,' it's hard to argue that a Colts/Saints matchup isn't a fitting conclusion to the 2009 season. The Colts opened 14-0 and the Saints 13-0. Two teams reaching 13-0 marked the latest in a season the NFL has ever had two teams which hadn't lost. Winning is nothing new for the Colts of this decade, while the Saints have reached rarified air. When the Colts won their 12th game this year, it marked an NFL-record seventh straight season of at least 12 wins. When they moved to 14-0, they owned the longest regular season winning streak in NFL history at 23. The Colts would "pack in it" the last two games of 2009, finishing 14-2.
However, the team's 10-year regular season record (2000-09) of 115-45 (.719) gives Indy the most wins of any team in any decade in NFL history (the 49ers of the 90s went 113-47, .706). For all of Indy's success this decade, this marks just their second Super Bowl appearance. The Colts take just a 9-8 postseason record into Sunday's game with the Saints. In comparison, the Patriots have gone 112-48 (.700) this decade and own four Super Bowl appearances (three wins) plus a postseason mark of 14-4. The Colts may try to make a case that they are "the team of the decade" if they win this game but that argument should fall on 'deaf ears.'
The Saints were founded in 1967 as an NFL expansion team and went more than a decade before they managed to finish a season with a .500 record, two decades before having a winning season and over four decades before reaching the Super Bowl (Lions and Browns are now the only teams which have been around since 1970 to have not reached the super Bowl). Jim Mora led the team to four playoff appearances from 1987–1992 (team also had winning records in the non-playoff years) but the Saints lost all four playoff games. Jim Haslett led New Orleans to its first-ever playoff win in 2000, when the Saints defeated the then-defending Super Bowl champion St Lois Rams 31-28.
Sean Peyton and Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans in 2006, a year after the team's previous season was disrupted by Hurricane Katrina. The Saints' scheduled 2005 home opener against the New York Giants was moved to Giants Stadium and the remainder of their 2005 home games were split between the Alamodome (San Antonio) and LSU's Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The Saints would go 3-13 in 2005, giving them a 10-year mark of 63-97 (.394). After a $185 million renovation of the Superdome, the Saints returned for the 2006 season. New Orleans went 10-6 and made it to the NFC championship game where it lost 39-14 to the Chicago Bears. The Saints went 7-9 and 8-8 the next two seasons but this year's 13-3 mark gives them a 38-26 (.594) regular season mark these last four years.
Home teams finished 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the 2009 postseason with the home team being favored in every game except the Green Bay/Arizona contest (favorites went 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS). The favorite had won and covered or the dog had won outright in every game, before the Saints (minus-3 1/2) won but failed to cover against the Vikings. Just three of the games were decided by less than 10 points, while five games were decided by 17 points or more (two by margins of 31 points). Of course the Super Bowl features no home team but favorites have gone 30-12 SU (SB 16 was a 'pick') and 22-18-2 ATS.
Thirty-two of the previous 43 Super Bowls have been decided by seven points or more (74.4 percent), including 21 by 14 points or more (48.8 percent). The Super Bowl tended to be one sided affair for the better part of its first 31 years. However, just two of the last 12 Super Bowls have been decided by more than 13 points (Ravens 34-7 over the Giants and Bucs 48-21 over the Raiders) with seven being decided by seven points or less. The Patriots have played in four of the last eight Super Bowls, with each game decided by exactly three points.
I've focused on playoff games since 1990 (when the NFL expanded to a 12-team field) all postseason and will do so again here. Home teams won both championship games, the third time in the last four seasons in which home teams have swept the two conference championship games. It marks just the third time both No. 1 seeds have advanced to a Super Bowl since 1990. It hadn’t happened since the 1993 season when the Cowboys beat the Bills 30-13 in Super Bowl XXVIII (both teams were 12-4), with the only other occurrence coming in 1991 when the 14-2 Redskins beat the 13-3 Bills 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI.
While this is only the third time that both No. 1 seeds have made it to the "big game," at least one No. 1 seed has made the Super Bowl in all but three seasons since 1990, including last season when Pittsburgh (No. 2 in the AFC) beat Arizona (No. 4 in the NFC). The other times were in 1992 (No. 2 Dallas beat No. 4 Buffalo) and 1997 (No. 4 Denver beat No. 2 Green Bay). Being a No. 1 seed and playing against a non-No. 1 seed has not been a good omen as of late. The only No. 1 seed to win a Super Bowl this decade has been the 2003 (beat the Panthers 32-29 in SB XXXVIII) with seven of the nine Super Bowl losers this decade being No. 1 seeds, including four in a row before last year.
Of course, with two No. 1 seeds meeting this year, one has to win and one has to lose (no ties, Donovan). Sticking with just Super Bowls since 1990 (19-game sample), the SU winner has also covered the pointspread in 13 of those wins with four ATS losses and two 'pushes' (Super Bowls 31 and 34). Three of the four games in which the Super Bowl winner failed to cover the spread have occurred in just the past six games Super Bowls, including last season when Pittsburgh beat Arizona 27-23 as a seven-point favorite.
Looking back over the last six Super Bowls reveals that the team with the better regular season record has failed to cover the spread even once, with three of those teams losing outright. The last time the team with the better regular season record won the Super Bowl was played following the 2002 season when the 12-4 Bucs crushed the 11-5 Raiders 48-21 as 3 1/2-point underdogs. That spells bad news for the 14-2 Colts (Saints are 13-3) but Colt fans (not necessarily the same as Colt bettors) can take heart in the fact that the favored team (Indy is a 4 1/2-point choice as of Thursday night) has won 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls.
It’s been a high-scoring postseason in 2009 with the first five games going over the total, including the highest scoring game in NFL postseason history (Arizona’s 51-45 OT win over Green Bay in the wildcard round). Those first five games averaged 57.6 points but three consecutive unders followed, with those games averaging 30.3 PPG. However, “Championship Sunday” saw both games over, as the Colts won 30-17 (closing total was 40) and the Saints won 31-28 in OT (53 1/2). That leaves us with seven overs and three unders so far, as games have averaged an unusually high 48.5 PPG.
While it's been a high scoring postseason, the current over/under of 56 1/2 is the highest Super Bowl total ever posted. Last year's Arizona/Pittsburgh game went over the 46 1/2 (due to a 23-point fourth quarter) but the previous four Super Bowls each stayed under. None of the last five Super Bowls have exceeded 50 points (average score totaling 40.6 PPG) and of the last 19 Super Bowls played since 1990, just five would have gone OVER the current total of 56 ½ with another one landing right on 56 (SB XXXI).
Tips and Trends
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts
Saints: Many casual fans and experts alike think this New Orleans team is a a team of destiny. Based on their performance in the NFC Championship, it would be hard to disagree. The Saints were able to overcome many obstacles in their improbable 31-28 SU win against the Vikings. The Saints enter their 1st Super Bowl ever with a record of 15-3 SU and 9-9 ATS this entire season to date. New Orleans was 8-2 SU at home, and 7-1 SU on the road this season. The Saints were 4-4 ATS on the road this season, having lost their past 3 road games ATS. In fact, the Saints have lost 6 of their past 7 games ATS heading into the Super Bowl today. Today will mark only the 2nd time this season the Saints will be the listed underdog, losing their only previous attempt both SU and ATS this season against Carolina. New Orleans is averaging 38 PPG during the postseason, after averaging nearly 33 PPG during the regular season. The Saints easily had the most prolific offense in the NFL this season thanks to the arm of QB Drew Brees.
Saints are 1-6 ATS last 7 games overall.
Over is 19-9 last 28 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - DE Dwight Freeney (ankle) is questionable.
WR Reggie Wayne (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24
Colts (-5, O/U 57): Indianapolis has had more than just a super season, as they have been on top of the NFL all season long. The Colts were undefeated for the majority of the season, before pulling their starters in Week 16 in a SU loss to the Jets. Indianapolis stands at 16-2 SU and 12-5-1 ATS this season. The Colts were an impressive 9-1 SU at home, and 7-1 SU away from home. Indianapolis was also 7-1 ATS away from home, losing their last game of the regular season ATS in a meaningless game. The Colts have been the listed favorite in 15 of their 17 games this season. Indy is 9-4-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this entire season. QB Peyton Manning directed the NFL's 2nd strongest passing offense, averaging 282 YPG this season. The Colts also averaged 29 PPG this season, while their defense has only allowed an average of 10 PPG during the postseason. The Colts were 7-1 ATS when they scored 30 PTS or more this season.
Colts are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - DE Charles Grant (tricep) is out.
TE Jeremy Shockey (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (Side of the Day)