Why the Steelers will win
By: Adam Markowitz
Super Bowl betting action is finally upon us, and here at Don Best we are analyzing Super Bowl XLV odds. The Pittsburgh Steelers are short underdogs to the Green Bay Packers, but there are three tremendous reasons why the black and gold are going to add to their legendary run of success in Super Bowls.
Super Bowl Experience
The Steelers are trying to win their third Super Bowl over the course of the last six seasons, something that would really classify them as a dynasty. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been at the helm for both of the previous two titles, and several of his teammates were on those teams as well.
Head coach Mike Tomlin became the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl two years ago when Pittsburgh knocked off the Arizona Cardinals, and now, he is the youngest coach to ever take a team to the Super Bowl twice.
If you add up all of the experience in Super Bowls on the Packers, all that you have is a game that DT Ryan Pickett played for the St. Louis Rams and a game that DB Charles Woodson played for the Oakland Raiders. Neither one has a ring to show for his efforts.
Wrecking Rodgers
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was really a terror to both the Philadelphia Eagles and the Atlanta Falcons in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but he was kept at bay by the Chicago Bears last week in the NFC Championship Game. Defensive End Julius Peppers and his cohorts were able to get in the backfield a ton, particularly in the second half, and as a result Rodgers only ended up throwing for 244 yards with two picks and no passing scores.
You aren't going to find a team that can put pressure on an opposing quarterback like the Steelers can. Pittsburgh already has seven sacks in the playoffs, including five against Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco in the AFC Divisional Round of the postseason. Green Bay's offensive line is going to have to have the game of its life to be able to stop up the Pittsburgh rush from its front seven, and if it doesn't, the Steelers are likely to beat the Super Bowl betting lines.
Close Game Syndrome
Though not every Super Bowl has been close, this is probably the most evenly matched championship game that we have had in years, and many are expecting a game that comes right down to the wire. These are situations in which the Steelers have excelled and the Packers have floundered all season long, and Green Bay really hasn't had the chance to get over that in the playoffs.
In games separated by three points or fewer this year, Green Bay went just 1-5, and the one win came at home against the Detroit Lions in a game that it should have won comfortably. Three of the five losses came against teams that were in the postseason, all of which were still standing in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Pittsburgh in the same situation of games with margins of victory of three points or fewer went 3-1, and proven that it can beat a team on the road in a pressure situation as it did when it beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road in the beginning of December.
We also have to keep in mind that in Week 1, with Big Ben suspended, the Steelers beat the Falcons in overtime 15-9 thanks to the TD run from RB Rashard Mendenhall in the extra frame.
Why the Packers will win
By: Michael Robinson
The Green Bay Packers will be victorious against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the classic matchup between two of the most storied franchises in NFL history.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out an opening line of Green Bay minus 1½-points, but that’s quickly moved up to 2½ at offshore sportsbooks.
The fact Green Bay is favored is surprising to some with Pittsburgh and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger winning two of the last five Super Bowls. The Packers haven’t even been in the Big Game since the 1997 season (losing to Denver), last winning in 1996.
Green Bay (13-6 SU, 12-7 against the spread) comes in as a wild-card, winning and ‘covering’ road games at Philadelphia (21-16), Atlanta (48-21) and Chicago (21-14). The first two were as one-point dogs and Chicago as 3½-point ‘chalk.’
The Packers have won five straight games overall (4-1 ATS), needing wins over the New York Giants (45-17) and Chicago (10-3) in the regular season to even make the playoffs.
Pittsburgh (14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS) is the AFC’s second seed and beat Baltimore (31-24) in a thrilling come-from-behind win in the Divisional Round. The Steelers held off the Jets (24-19) last week after leading 24-0. They were fortunate to host the conference title game instead of playing at the Patriots, after already losing to them at home (39-26).
Green Bay is the deserved favorite after proving itself on the road, while Pittsburgh has yet to leave the cozy confines of Heinz Field. Both fan bases travel well, so crowd support should be split.
Home Sweet Dome
The biggest matchup edge for either team is the Green Bay passing attack (258 YPG in the regular season, ranked fifth) against the Pittsburgh pass defense (214 YPG, ranked 12th). The Steelers run ‘D’ is easily top-ranked (63 YPG), so what New England did is spread out the defense with four and five receivers and use a quick passing attack.
Green Bay has four receivers with over 500 yards receiving (Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver) and I expect the same offensive strategy used. Aaron Rodgers is very good at making quick decisions in the pocket like Tom Brady and should have lot of success throwing.
The even better news is the roof will be closed at Cowboys Stadium. Rodgers was nearly perfect (31-of-36, 366 yards, three TDs and no picks) when he played in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome two weeks ago. There is some talk that he hurt his shoulder last week and possibly had another concussion, but there’s no reason to think he won’t be fine.
Shuffle off from Buffalo
Normally it is bad luck to even say the name Buffalo in relation to the Super Bowl. After all, the Bills set the standard for futility by losing four consecutive Super Bowls in the 1990-1993 seasons.
However, Green Bay has benefited from the city, or at least the University of Buffalo. Rookie running back James Starks was drafted in the sixth round from there and has come out of nowhere in the playoffs (263 yards). The Packers can’t just line up against Pitt and consistently run the ball even with Starks, but he will be effective on draw plays from the spread formation.
Steelers’ offensive line problems
Pittsburgh has had injury problems on the offensive line all year. First, starting tackles Willie Colon and Max Starks were lost for the year. The latest news has center Maurkice Pouncey spraining his ankle against the Jets last week. Pouncey says he will definitely play, but how effective will he be considering he’s still on crutches now?
The Steelers let up six sacks against Baltimore in the Divisional Round. Terrell Suggs had three of them and caused a fumble return for a touchdown off Roethlisberger. Pitt did better in pass protection last week against New York, but Green Bay has 10 sacks this postseason and 47 in the regular season (ranked second behind Pittsburgh’s 48). Clay Matthews (17 total sacks) will be a terror versus Flozell Adams and Jonathan Scott.
NFC gaining momentum
The most dominant teams of this century have come from the AFC in New England, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. They’ve combined for six of the last nine Super Bowl wins and are going for seven in 10.
However, the NFC has won two of the last three (New Orleans, NY Giants) and is 3-0 ATS in the last three. One of those games was Arizona losing to Pittsburgh (27-23) as 6½-point ‘dogs two years ago. Roethlisberger made the big touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes with 35 seconds left. This time, it will be the Steelers that come up a little short.
Super Bowl Betting: Steelers and 'under'
By: Brad Young
Super Bowl XLV will feature two of pro football’s most historic and successful franchises, battling for the coveted Vince Lombardi Trophy in front of a record-setting crowd in Dallas. Both teams boast a national fan base, numerous championships and a top-flight defense.
Green Bay (13-6 straight up, 12-7 against the spread) advanced to its first Super Bowl in 13 years, and is gunning for its first championship since capturing Super Bowl XXXI. The Packers also won the first two Super Bowls, and have 12 league championships in their trophy case.
Pittsburgh (14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS) has won the most championships in the Super Bowl-era, capturing its sixth title just two years ago. The Steelers are 9-1 ATS their last 10 playoff games, and the ‘over’ is 16-5 the previous 21 postseason performances.
Terrible TowelDon Best's Real-Time Odds opened Green Bay as slight 1½-point ‘chalk’ over Pittsburgh, with the total listed at 45½. The line has since shifted to the Packers as a 2½-point favorite, with the total being bet down to 44½. The total reached a high of 46 points before being bet down to its current number.
Green Bay advanced to the postseason as the National Football Conference’s sixth and final-seeded team. The Packers needed victories over the New York Giants and Chicago the final two weeks of the regular season to advance to the playoffs.
Green Bay then proceeded to record road playoff victories over third-seed Philadelphia (21-16), top-seed Atlanta (48-21) and second-seed Chicago (21-14) to reach Super Bowl XLV. The Packers are just the fourth team to reach the Super Bowl after winning three road playoff games.
New England advanced to Super Bowl XX before getting crushed by Chicago, but Pittsburgh won Super Bowl XL and the New York Giants captured Super Bowl XLII under similar circumstances. In fact, the Steelers were the sixth and final seed when they beat Seattle five years ago.
Green Bay beat NFC North-rival Chicago Jan. 23 as 3½-point road ‘chalk,’ 21-14, while the combined 35 points failed to topple the 42-point closing total. The ‘under’ is now 3-1 the previous four games. The Packers have now gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS their last five games overall.
Green Bay jumped out to a 14-point halftime advantage, 14-0, and finished the game with advantages in first downs (23-17), rushing yards (120-83), passing yards (236-218), turnovers forced (3-2) and time of possession (34:04-25:56).
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was 17-of-30 passing for 244 yards with two interceptions, while rushing seven times for 39 yards and a score. Running back James Starks had 22 carries for 74 yards with a score, while wideout Greg Jennings caught eight passes for 130 yards.
Pittsburgh advanced to its third Super Bowl the past five years after holding off the New York Jets Jan. 23 as a four-point home favorite, 24-19. The combined 43 points eclipsed the 38-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the third consecutive contest. The Steelers have now won and covered their last four games.
Pittsburgh entered the postseason as the American Football Conference’s second-seeded team, but didn’t have to travel after top-seed New England was ousted by the Jets. The Steelers disposed of AFC North-rival Baltimore to start their postseason run Jan. 15 as a 3 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 31-24.
Pittsburgh scored the first 24 points of the game versus the Jets before being shutout in the second half. Momentum clearly shifted to New York’s side in the second half, but the Steelers converted a key third down late in the game to run out the clock. Coach Mike Tomlin’s team concluded the contest with advantages in first downs (23-17), rushing yards (166-70) and time of possession (34:41-25:19).
Signal caller Ben Roethlisberger completed 10-of-19 passes for 133 yards with a pair of interceptions, while rushing 11 times for 21 yards and a score. Running back Rashard Mendenhall enjoyed a solid game with 27 carries for 121 yards and a touchdown, while catching two passes for 32 yards. Tight end Heath Miller had two catches for 38 yards in the victory, while veteran wideout Hines Ward caught two passes for 14 yards.
Pittsburgh and Green Bay collided last year in a shootout that the Steelers eventually won as 2 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 37-36. The combined 73 points soared ‘over’ the 41 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1 the past four meetings. Pittsburgh is now 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the previous three encounters with the Packers.
The Steelers prevailed when Roethlisberger connected with Mike Wallace on a desperation 19-yard pass on the final play of the game. That ended a five-game losing streak for Pittsburgh, while ending the Packers’ five-game winning streak.
The lead changed hand five times over the final nine minutes. Both teams accumulated almost 900 yards of passing yards in the offensive showdown, while having leading rushers under 40 yards.
While most of the focus will be on both quarterbacks, two men aged 60 and 73 will go a long way in deciding Super Bowl XLV. Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers helped lead the Packers to the fifth-ranked defense in the league during the regular season. The defense surrendered an average of just 309.1 yards per game, 194.2 yards passing but ranked 18th in rush defense by yielding 114.9 yards.
Pittsburgh’s Dick LeBeau is nearing the end of a legendary coaching career at age 73. Under his tutelage this season, the Steelers ranked second in total defense by allowing 276.8 yards per game, first in rushing defense (62.8) and 12th in passing (214.1). Both of these defensive coaches have had two weeks to add new wrinkles to their defensive game plans.
Green Bay offensive tackle Chad Clifton (stinger) is ‘probable’ versus the Steelers, while linebacker Frank Zombo (knee injury), cornerback Pat Lee (hip) and linebacker Erik Walden (ankle) are ‘questionable.’ The Packers are 6-2 ATS their last eight outings when listed as the favorite.
Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) has been downgraded to expected to miss Super Bowl XLV, while defensive end Aaron Smith (tricep) is ‘doubtful’ and safety Will Allen (knee) is ‘questionable.’
FOX Sports will provide a lengthy pregame show, but Super Bowl XLV will not officially kickoff until 3:29 p.m. PT from Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Prediction: Pro football’s biggest game features two teams with long and proud championship traditions. The biggest discrepancy in the game is Green Bay’s inability to run the ball even though the team did amass 120 yards rushing versus Chicago. Pittsburgh’s run defense will eventually make the Packers attack one dimensional, and that should be the deciding factor of Super Bowl XLV.
Pittsburgh 20, Green Bay 17
Super Bowl XLV Preview: The QBs
By Larry Ness
If someone would have told me that the winning QB in the NFC championship game would have a 55.4 QB rating and that the winning QB in the AFC championship game would have a 35.5 rating and asked me to pick predict the Super Bowl XLV matchup, I would have, without hesitation (and with supreme confidence), declared Bears vs Jets. So much for that. However, we all know that Rodgers’ 55.4 rating vs the Bears on January 23rd hardly defines him anymore than Roethlisberger’s 35.5 rating vs the Jets defines Big Ben. A few notes regarding the QBs who will be on display February 6th.
Aaron Rodgers missed Week 15 with a concussion but then returned to lead the Packers to wins over the Giants and Bears to qualify for the postseason. He then led them to wins at Philly and Atlanta prior to the NFC title game in Chicago. In those four "elimination" games, he completed 72.7 percent of his passes for an average of 294.8 YPG with 11 TDs and just one INT (three of four game QB ratings were 122.5 or higher!). Not that anyone’s counting (yeah right!) but let’s note that his 366 passing yards vs the Falcons were MORE than Brett Favre has ever thrown for in any one of his 24 postseason games. Prior to the NFC championship game, Rodgers had thrown 10 TD passes over his first three playoff starts, surpassing Dan Marino, Jeff George and Daryle Lamonica for the most scoring throws in the first three postseason starts of any QB in NFL history.
Rodgers, after just three playoff games (all on the road), could lay claim to having directed two of the three highest-scoring performances by a road team in NFL postseason history. The 48 points in Atlanta on January 15th ranking second and the 45 points in the team's 2009 wild card loss in Arizona (GB lost 51-45 in OT) ranking third. Could Rodgers’ ‘stock’ be any ‘higher’ than it is right now? Let me quote Jon Gruden, right after Green Bay’s win over the Falcons. “Rodgers is one terrible defense away from being 3-0 in the playoffs. This guy's 78 yards short of starting his career with three-straight 4,000 yard seasons (remember, he sat out Week 15’s loss in New England with a concussion or he would easily topped 4,00 this year). This guy's got 86 touchdowns and 31 interceptions as a starter. And this guy is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL.” Let’s agree, “Chucky” knows what he’s talking about.
As for Big Ben, let's not forget what he's been through this season, admittedly self-imposed. He sat out the first four games of the regular season (league suspension) but returned to lead the Steelers to a 9-3 record in 12 games, completing 61.7 percent for 3,200 yards with 17 TDs and just five INTs (97.0 QB rating). He was superb in the comeback vs Baltimore in the divisional round, completing 19-of-32 for 226 yards with two TDs and no INTs (QB rating of 101.8). The Steelers trailed 21-7 in the third quarter before Roethlisberger completed TD passes to Heath Miller and Hines Ward to tie the game at 21. With just over two minutes left, the game was tied 24-24 and the Steelers faced a 3rd and 19. Roethlisberger completed a deep pass to rookie wide receiver Antonio Brown for 58 yards and Rashard Mendenhall's rushing TD put the Steelers ahead for good, 31-24, with 1:33 left. It was Roethlisberger's third game-winning drive in a playoff game.
Roethlisberger rushed for a TD in the first half as the Steelers built a 24-0 lead vs the Jets in the AFC championship game. He did not play a good game overall, to say the least (10-of-19 for a season-low 133 yards and two interceptions) . However, when the Jets scored 19 unanswered points, Big Ben was up to the challenge. With Pittsburgh 'nursing' a 24-19 lead, he converted two, 14-yard first down throws. The first came on second down and the second on a third-and-six with two minutes remaining in the game, when he scrambled right and completed a pass to Antonio Brown (again!) to seal the victory for Pittsburgh.
Roethlisberger cannot claim the lofty statistical marks of Rodgers but by leading the Steelers into the Super Bowl for the third time in the last six years, Big Ben is approaching legendary status among postseason QBs. He’s doing something all QBs aspire to do and that is, to win in the postseason. He's now 10-2 (.833) all-time in postseason games, the second-best winning percentage behind only Bart Starr's 9-1 (.900) record as a starting QB. Starr lost his first playoff start (1960 NFL championship game) and then won his final nine playoff games, winning five NFL championships (including the first two Super Bowls). Everyone is well aware that Bradshaw and Montana stand alone with four Super Bowl wins to their credit with Aikman and Brady claiming three apiece.
Big Ben can join Aikman and Brady with a win vs the Packers. Tying Brady, a contemporary who is viewed by most as being highly superior to Roethlisberger, would be huge. A victory in Super Bowl XLV would give Big Ben three Super Bowl titles in his first seven season with an 11-2 postseason record. How does that compare to Brady? Brady was drafted in the 6th round with the 199th overall pick. He was 1-of-3 passing, for six yards during in rookie season of 2000. The Patriots opened the 2001 season with Bledsoe as the starting QB. However, he was injured in the team’s second game with Brady taking over from there. He would lead the Pats to a Super Bowl win that year and after missing the postseason in 2002, led the Pats to back-to-back Super Bowl wins following the 2003 and ‘04 seasons. However, let me note that while Brady began his postseason career with 10 straight wins, he’s gone 4-5 since (14-5, .737 overall), including a loss in Super Bowl XLII to the Giants, which prevented the Pats from completing the NFL’s first-ever 19-0 season.
While Big Ben will be chasing NFL postseason history in Super Bowl XLV, Rodgers is trying to emerge from the large shadow of Brett Favre. He’s off to a pretty good start (review the second and third paragraphs of this article). He’s taken the Packers to the Super Bowl in just his third season as a starter while Favre didn’t do so until his fifth season. Note that Rodgers is 3-1 in his postseason starts, all on the road. Favre’s all-time postseason record is 13-11 (.542), going 12-10 with the Packers and 1-1 with the Vikings. Postseason road wins do not come easily and it’s noteworthy that while Favre was just 3-6 on the playoff road, Rodgers has already won three times on the playoff road in four tries. Despite Big Ben’s ‘pedigree,’ Rodgers is the QB everyone is talking about in Super Bowl XLV. A win validates all the hype.
Super Bowl XLV Preview Part 2
By Larry Ness
The Packers vs the Steelers make for quite a Super Bowl, as they comprise the first Super Bowl matchup of teams more than 75 years old. The Packers have been in business since 1919 and a part of the NFL since 1921 (hold the distinction as the only NFL franchise that is publicly owned) while the Steelers were founded by Art Rooney in 1933. Green Bay has won more championships (12) than any other team in National Football League history. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be making their eighth Super Bowl appearance (tied with the Dallas Cowboys for the most appearances) and won the most Super Bowl titles (six) since the game’s inception during the 1966 season. The Steelers are tied with the Cowboys for the most all-time NFL postseason wins (33) but at 33-19 (.635), the Steelers trail the Packers (28-16, .636) for the best all-time winning percentage in NFL playoff history.
Green Bay won its first three titles by owning the league’s best record in a three-year stretch from 1929 through 1931 and nine more times since the NFL's playoff system was established in 1933 (1936, 1939, 1944, 1961, 1962, 1965, 1966, 1967 and 1996). Green Bay is also the only NFL team to win three straight titles, having done it twice (1929-31 and 1965-67). The Packers won the first two Super Bowls (35-10 over Kansas City and 33-14 over Oakland), as well as a more recent one (35-21 over New England following the 1996 season). The NFL implemented a playoff system in 1933 and since that time, the Packers have played in the NFL's “deciding game” 12 times. That includes 10 NFL title appearances from 1936-67, including the first two Super Bowls plus two more Super Bowls after the 1970 merger, SB XXXI and XXXII. This year’s Super Bowl marks the team’s “lucky 13th” appearance in an NFL title game. Only the NY Giants (18) have played for more titles, 14 NFL championship games (but just three wins) and four Super Bowls (three wins).
The first four Super Bowls were played prior to the 1970 merger and since this year’s game is Super Bowl XLV, we have 40 years of history to look back on. The AFC won nine of the first 11 Super bowls after the merger but one must note that the Steelers (four wins) and the Colts (one win) claimed five of those nine wins and both were two of the three NFL teams which had agreed to leave the NFC and enter the AFC at the time of the merger (Browns were the third team). The NFC then completely dominated the Super Bowl over the next 16 years, winning 15 times. The lone exception was the Raiders’ 38-9 win over the Redskins in Super Bowl XVIII. That stretch included 13 straight Super bowl wins by the NFC from the 1984 season through 1996 (10-2-1 ATS). In that span, the average game score was 37.7-to-16.8 PPG favoring the NFC.
The Broncos upset the Packers 31-24 in Super Bowl XXXII, beginning a stretch in which the AFC has won NINE of the last 14 Super Bowls (6-6-1 ATS). The NFC’s Super Bowl dominance is a thing of the past and one can’t help but notice that this year’s Packers represent the 10th different NFC team to represent the conference in the “ultimate game” since the 2001 season. Find that hard to believe? Here’s the list. Rams in 2001, Bucs in 2002, Panthers in 2003, Eagles in 2004, Seahawks in 2005, Bears in 2006, Giants in 2007, Cardinals in 2008, Saints in 2009 and now the Packers in 2010. Note that since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990 (12 teams), only Detroit and Minnesota have failed to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. That sure hasn’t been the case in the AFC, where in that same time frame, just nine teams have represented the conference in the last 20 Super bowls (missing from that list are the Bengals, Browns, Chiefs, Dolphins, Jags, Jets and Texans).
Going back to Super Bowl I, 26 of the previous 44 Super Bowls (59 percent) have been decided by more than 11 points, 22 of those by 14 points or more. However, since Super Bowl XXIX, a game that saw San Francisco close as an 18-point favorite over San Diego (by the way, according to the Gold Sheet, that game represented the biggest pointspread of the entire 1994 NFL season!) and win 49-26, we’ve seen some very competitive Super Bowl games. There have been 15 Super Bowl games since that San Francisco/San Diego blowout with underdogs covering nine times (seven of the last nine), favorites just four times plus two pushes. For those playing the over/under, history shows 20 overs, 22 unders and one push (no total for Super Bowl I) all-time. However, five of the last six Super Bowls have gone under with games averaging 41.8 PPG in that span (current total is 44 1/2, as of Thursday night).
In following this year’s postseason, I’ve begun with the year 1990, when the league expanded its playoff-field to 12 teams. That left us with a history of 80 wild card and divisional round games, 40 championship games and 20 Super Bowls. Note how similar the results have been. In the previous 80 wild card games heading into this year’s postseason, SU winners equaled ATS winners 87 percent of the time (67-10-3). The average margin of victory was 12.4 PPG with the average game score at 43.8 PPG (36 overs / 43 unders / one push). The 80 divisional round games saw SU winners cover 81.8 percent of the time (63-15-2) with an average margin of victory of 14.3 PPG and a game score of 42.9 PPG (38 overs / 41 unders / one push). The 40 championship game winners covered 85.6 percent of the time (33-6-1) with an average margin of victory of 13.1 PPG and a game score of 43.9 PPG (25 overs / 14 unders / one push).
What has this year’s postseason brought us? All 10 winners also covered the pointspread (100 percent), so that was really nothing new, although the average of the three rounds over the previous 20 years was 84.0 percent. This year’s wild card games saw a lower average margin of victory (8.5 PPG) but a higher average game score (46.0), although just one of those four games went over. The divisional round games this year saw a return to a more typical average margin of victory (13.0 PPG) but the game scores soared to an average of 60.5 PPG, as all games went over. Both championships games were close (unusual), the Packers winning by seven and the Steelers by five points while the games averaged 39.0 PPG (down from a 20-year average of 43.9). One game stayed under and the other went over (compared to that 20-year run which saw 64 percent of the title games going over).
Sticking with the same time frame (since 1990), the 20 previous Super Bowls have seen the winning team cover 14 times with four ATS losses and a pair of pointspread pushes. That figures to SU winners equaling ATS winners just 77.8 percent of the time, down from the 20-year average of of 84.0 percent over the first three rounds. Interestingly, three of the four games in which the Super Bowl winner lost ATS have occurred in the past seven Super Bowls (Pittsburgh after the 2008 season plus New England in back-to-back Super Bowls following the 2003 and 2004 seasons). The previous 20 Super Bowls have produced a 12.5 PPG average margin of victory (very similar to the other rounds) but a higher average game score (49.7 PPG), although overs and unders have been split evenly at 10 each.
The favored team has won 14 of the last 20 Super Bowls but to be fair, only four times has the favored team been less than a six-point choice and this year’s game (currently Green Bay minus-2 1/2 as of Thursday night) is just the second one under a FG. Seven of the last 20 Super Bowls have featured a double-digit favorite but note that each of the last three, New England minus-12 1/2 (SB 41), St Louis minus-14 (SB 36) and Green Bay minus-11 1/2 (SB 32) have lost outright! Some find it odd that the Packers, a 10-6 team are favored over the Steelers, who went 12-4. However, in each of the last seven Super Bowls, the team with the better regular season record has failed to cover. One has to go back to Super Bowl XXXVII when Tampa Bay (12-4) defeated Oakland (11-5) 48-21 to find a team with the better regular season record capturing the Super Bowl. However, in that game, despite owning the better regular season record, the Bucs were a 3 1/2-point underdog.
Let me also note in closing, that over the past two decades, there has been great turnover in playoff participants from one season to the next. This season's playoff-field included five teams that did not make the postseason in 2009, leaving seven ‘repeaters.’ The average over the last 20 seasons comes in at 6.2 playoff repeaters and 5.8 ‘newbies.’ When New England beat Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII, it marked the fourth time in five seasons that the Super Bowl champion was a team that did not even make the playoffs the previous season. That was followed by five straight Super Bowl winners being teams that had been in the playoffs a season earlier from SB XXXIV through SB XLIII but New Orleans won last season's Super Bowl after going 8-8 the previous season. Green Bay made the playoffs last season but Pittsburgh did not, thus giving the Steelers a chance to be the latest team to go from missing the playoffs one season to winning it all the next.
Super Bowl XLV: What Bettors Need to Know
By Scott Cooley
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers (-3, 44.5)
With two of the oldest franchises squaring off, this year’s Super Bowl is being pegged as one of the most historic in NFL history.
“We think it’s going to be one of the most popular Super Bowls ever,” said Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the Las Vegas Hilton. “These are the two most popular teams playing for the crown.”
The Steelers’ “Stairway to 7” started as a season of unknowns where the star quarterback was suspended for the first four games. Ben Roethlisberger has matured since his offseason transgression and will join elite quarterback company if he claims his third ring in six years.
Green Bay will aim to return the Lombardi Trophy to the land of its namesake. Forgotten is the player who tarnished his legacy among the Cheesheads as they have crowned a new savior—Aaron Rodgers.
Weather report
A snowstorm hit the Super Bowl destination as teams, fans and media infiltrated Arlington. There is a 40 percent chance of precipitation for Super Sunday with a high of 41 degrees, but anyone holding a ticket won’t feel the brunt of Mother Nature.
The retractable roof at Cowboys Stadium will be closed which should create a kickoff temperature somewhere in the low 70s.
Most pundits agree the climate-controlled venue favors the Packers. Since Rodgers took over in 2008, Green Bay has played in 12 dome games where it averaged 31.8 points per. Rodgers posted a 111.1 QB rating in that sampling behind 26 touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Packers wideouts, although not a speedy group, will benefit from the artificial turf. Greg Jennings registered at least 100 yards through the air in seven of the team’s 12 indoor games. Green Bay put up 48 and 45 points in its last two postseason dome games.
Professional handicapper Ted Sevransky told Covers last week that, “The Steelers thrive in sloppy conditions.” Since 2008, Pittsburgh has played in just two dome games, struggling to beat the Lions last year and only producing 10 points in a defeat to New Orleans at the Superdome this season.
Wagering numbers
The line for Super Bowl XLV has been tight for two weeks and with equal action coming in on these public darlings, the sportsbooks are already winning.
Kornegay said that while he didn’t expect this year’s handle to exceed the $94 million the state of Nevada wrote for the 2006 title game (Seahawks-Steelers), he does anticipate it will surpass last year’s total of $82 million.
When the Divisional Round playoff games were set, Covers interviewed a member of the Las Vegas Sports Consultants regarding potential Super Bowl lines. At that time, the LVSC spokesperson said a Packers-Steelers matchup would position Pittsburgh as a 1-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The oddsmaking group preferred the Steelers because of experience.
When the spread and total for this matchup surfaced on January 23, the numbers were much different. Covers’ opening line report indicated the majority of shops on the strip sent out a spread of 1.5 in favor of the Packers and a total of 46.
Within minutes, early bettors backed the Pack and moved the spread to -2. The next morning that number had elevated to -2.5 (-120) and the majority of offshore markets were offering -3 (+100).
Sevransky offered an explanation where the market was more impressed by three road wins by Green Bay compared to two sloppy halves of football at home by the Steelers.
A recent report asked oddsmakers to divulge where they predicted the spread will land at kickoff. Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager of the MGM, said that he expects it to settle at -3 with a -110 juice. Bodog.com is already dealing a field goal and manager Richard Gardner doesn’t suspect they will move off that number.
Sharp total bettors hammered the under two Mondays ago, driving the opener down from 46 to 44. As the first week of betting progressed, the total moved up a half point and a few books had 45 on the board by Friday of this week. Stoneback said if the total goes anywhere it will move upward because the “tourists” prefer to bet the over.
The moneyline for the game hasn’t budged much. It opened with the Packers at -140 and Pittsburgh at +120. Stoneback said that wiseguy bettors often play the favorite late so if you like the Steelers to win straight up it might be beneficial to wait closer to kickoff.
Injury report
After nearly a two-week delay, Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey has officially been ruled out. Mike Tomlin confirmed the status after Friday’s practice in which the rookie did not participate. Many consider Pouncey to be the best member of an offensive line that yields one sack every nine pass plays.
Backup Doug Legursky will make his first NFL start at center as Pouncey’s replacement. He will have to contend with the bull-rushing B.J. Raji in the interior. The Steelers already had to place two offensive tackles (Willie Colon, Max Starks) on injured reserve this season and reserve tackle Chris Scott missed the AFC Championship with a head injury.
Fellow lineman Chris Kemoeatu said Pouncey’s injury will serve as motivation for the rest of the team.
“We are definitely sad that he won’t be able to be with us in the Super Bowl,” Kemoeatu said. “We just have to win it for him. We know how big this is for him and him not being able to play is definitely motivating for us to go out there and get that ring for him.”
Troy Polamalu has dressed for the last three Pittsburgh games but some speculate he’s not fully recovered from an Achilles injury. The Steelers dropped him back into deep coverage more than usual and the strong safety recorded a total of eight tackles during those games.
On the Packers side, Donald Driver tweaked his quad in practice this week and has been limited but Mike McCarthy said Friday that Driver will play. Outside linebacker Erik Walden is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.
Stat pack
Both of these defenses were top-flight units in 2010. The Steelers finished first in opponent points allowed (14.5 ppg) while the Packers ranked second (15.0 ppg). Pittsburgh gave up the second-fewest yards at 276.8 per game and Green Bay ranked fifth at 309.1 yards a contest.
The Steelers took home the sack title as well with 48 on the season. No other linebacker corps in the league produced more sacks (32.5) than James Harrison, Lamar Woodley and Co.
Not far behind, Green Bay finished second during the regular season in sacks (47.0). Its group of linebackers, led by Clay Matthews, tallied 26 takedowns this year. In three playoff games, the Packers defense has posted 10 sacks and 15 quarterback hits.
If you had to nitpick and pinpoint a weakness in the Steelers defense, it would be the secondary. That grouping allowed 214.1 yards per outing which ranked 12th in the NFL. Green Bay gave up 194.2 passing yards a game which was fifth. Both Green Bay (24) and Pittsburgh (21) finished in the top 5 in interceptions.
For the Packers, the primary weak spot is defending the run, particularly between the tackles. Green Bay finished ranked 18th against the run this year (114.9 ypg). Pittsburgh surrendered just 62.8 rushing yards per game which was 27.3 yards better than the next-best team.
Offensively, these teams were very similar as well. The Packers averaged 24.3 points and 358.1 yards a contest while Pittsburgh posted 23.4 points and 345.3 yards per. All of those marks ranked in the Top 15 among league leaders.
With Rodgers transforming into the NFC’s top gunslinger, Green Bay averaged 257.8 passing yards a game which ranked fifth-best. The more conservative Pittsburgh offense finished 14th with an average of 225.1 yards through the air.
No team has ever won the Super Bowl ranking last in rushing and, while the Packers weren’t quite that bad, they did finish the regular season ranked 24th at 100.4 yards a game. The Steelers averaged 120.3 yards per contest on the ground.
Last meeting
When the Steelers and Packers squared off in Week 15 of the 2009 season, one team had won five consecutive games and the other had dropped five straight. The Steelers were positioned as 2.5-point favorites for the game with a total of 41.5.
Pittsburgh snapped its skid with a 37-36, last-second victory. Much like Super Bowl XLIII when Big Ben found Santonio Holmes in the corner of the end zone, he connected with Mike Wallace in the same place as time expired in this shootout.
Although both defenses were ranked in the top 4 going into this matchup, there wasn’t much defense to be found. Pittsburgh amassed 537 total yards on 70 plays and Green Bay had 436 on 61 snaps. Both squads were efficient on third-downs opportunities with the Packers converting 10 of 16 and the Steelers 7 of 16.
Neither team had more than 65 yards rushing but the Steelers were able to hold onto the ball for 11 more minutes than Green Bay. Mike McCarthy only called nine run plays.
Roethlisberger found Wallace streaking down the sideline on Pittsburgh’s first play from scrimmage for a 60-yard score and he finished the day with 503 yards and three touchdowns on 29 of 46 passing. Rodgers completed 26 of 48 attempts for 383 yards and three scores as well as a rushing touchdown. Neither team committed a turnover but Green Bay compiled five sacks.
Common ground
Green Bay and Pittsburgh played five common opponents during the regular season.
New York Jets: The Packers won 9-0 as road underdogs in Week 8. Pittsburgh lost at home, 22-17, in Week 15 as 3.5-point chalk.
Buffalo Bills: Green Bay won 34-7 in Week 2 as hefty home favorites. The Steelers eked out a 19-16 road victory in Week 12 as 6.5-point faves.
New England Patriots: Pittsburgh was thoroughly worked over during a 39-26 home loss in Week 10 as 4.5-point favorites. Playing without Aaron Rodgers in Week 15, the Packers nearly pulled off the impossible with a win at Foxboro but dropped a 31-27 decision as double-digit dogs in the end.
Miami Dolphins: Green Bay was searching for its identity in Week 6 and lost at home, 23-20, as 2.5-point chalk. The Steelers won on the road, 23-22, in Week 7 as field-goal favorites.
Atlanta Falcons: In the season opener sans Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh pulled out a 15-9 home win as 1-point underdogs. The Packers dropped a 20-17 decision on a last-second field goal in Week 12 as 2.5-point pups.
The Steelers went 3-1 SU and ATS versus NFC competition (Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers) this season. The Packers compiled 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS records against the AFC (Buffalo, Miami, New York, New England).
Familiar face
There could be one X-factor most handicappers are overlooking in this matchup.
Dom Capers was the defensive coordinator in Pittsburgh from 1992-94 when Dick LeBeau was the defensive backs coach. But Jeremy Kapinos was a member of the Packers organization more recently, and now he plays for the Steelers.
Kapinos punted for Green Bay during the 2009 season. The Packers let him go after that year and he remained a street free agent until Daniel Sepulveda tore his ACL in Week 13. Pittsburgh was in need of a punter and signed Kapinos.
While the knowledge doesn’t always pay off, Kapinos might be able to provide valuable special teams information to the Steelers as punt coverages and situations could be identified.
Notes and trends
- In 19 games this season, the Packers have not trailed by more than a touchdown at any time.
- The Jeff Sagarin ratings supply Pittsburgh with a 31.35 rating and Green Bay with a 31.18 number.
- According to the Sagarin ratings, the Packers went 7-3 against top 10 teams while the Steelers went 4-4 against top 10 teams.
- If a team scores more than 32 points in the Super Bowl they are a perfect 18-0 straight up.
- Super Bowl favorites that score fewer than 30 points are 3-12 ATS in the last 20 years.
- Teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS while teams that post 21 points or more are 26-9 SU and 23-9-3 ATS.
- When a team scores 27 points or more it is 22-1 SU and 19-3-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.
- Halftime bettors should know that teams with a lead at the Super Bowl break are 33-8 straight up.
- In the 44-year history of the Super Bowl, only nine times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the spread.
- The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowls.
- The NFC has covered three straight Super Bowls but the AFC has won five of the last seven.
- Teams that win the Super Bowl time of possession battle are 31-10-3 ATS.
- The total has gone OVER in 15 of last 24 Super Bowls.
- Five of the last six Super Bowls have gone UNDER.
- A Super Bowl has never gone into overtime.
- Higher-seeded Super Bowl teams are 1-11-2 ATS.
- Super Bowl XLV will mark the first time in nine years the NFC is listed as the favorite.
Super Bowl Intangibles
By Chris David
It’s often been said that two things you can’t handicap in football are turnovers and penalties. They happen often and usually help or hurt one squad or another during the course of a game. How a club responds or reacts could be the difference of victory or defeat. This pair of terms and other factors that are impossible to measure are called intangibles. While they may or may not hurt your wager in Super Bowl XLV, let’s take a closer look and check out some propositions associated with the unpredictable acts from Sportsbook.com.
Penalties
The infamous yellow flag can be the ultimate buzz kill for a big play. The timing of the penalties is huge and sometimes they can affect the outcome of a game. Who could forget Super Bowl XL between Pittsburgh and Seattle? The Steelers earned a 21-10 decision but the Seahawks had one touchdown nullified on a controversial offensive pass interference penalty and they had another close call with a holding penalty that reversed a first-and-goal situation as well. Instead of getting up to 14 points, the Seahawks had to settle for three.
On the season, Green Bay’s offense was tagged for 78 penalties while the defense had 98. Pittsburgh finished with 100 and 86 in the same categories. Delving into the numbers further and recognizing that both teams boast great defensive units, make a note that Pittsburgh’s offensive line was flagged for a league-high 35 holding penalties. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s front only had 14 holding calls.
In three postseason games, the Packers were flagged 14 times (120 yards) and the Steelers were caught with 13 penalties (118 yards) but that was in just two games.
Gamblers can wager on penalty props at Sportsbook.com:
Team to Commit the 1st Penalty
(Declined Penalties Does Not Count)
Steelers -135 Packers +105
Team with the Most Penalty Yards
(Declined Penalties Does Not Count)
Steelers -155 Packers +125
Turnovers
Whoever wins the turnover battle, will more than likely win the game. And both squads have been more than capable of creating extra possessions, plus they’ve been good at holding onto the ball as well.
During the regular season, Green Bay coughed up the ball 14 times (13 INTs) while Pittsburgh had 13 turnovers (9 interceptions). Make a note that even though the Steelers lost four fumbles, they did put the ball on the turf nine times.
Defensively, both secondary units were fearless. Pittsburgh had 21 interceptions and Green Bay had 24 picks. In the postseason, the Packers’ defense picked off six passes in three games and two of them were taken back to the house. Green Bay’s unit has five defensive touchdowns and Pittsburgh’s is right behind with four defensive scores, including one against the Jets two weeks ago in the conference championship.
Propositions listed on both interceptions and fumbles can be wagered on at Sportsbook.com:
Total Interceptions Thrown by BOTH Teams (2.5)
Over +180 Under -240
Total Fumbles Lost by BOTH Teams (1.5)
Over +110 Under -140
Will there be a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown
Yes +140 No -170
Pressure
If you’re a stat junkie, you probably would agree that numbers don’t lie. With that being said, this writer believes that one of the biggest factors to a successful offense is how good a team does on third down. If you can convert and keep the chains moving, you will win a lot of ball games. During the regular season, Pittsburgh (43%) and Green Bay (42%) were ranked sixth and eighth in the NFL respectively. A lot of the success for these clubs is attributed to the quarterbacks, and it’s safe to say that Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger are two of the best in the game.
More importantly, these signal callers are playing a very high level right now in the playoffs. In three postseason games, Rodgers has helped the Packers convert 18-of-36 (50%) conversions in their three road victories. While those numbers are more than impressive, Big Ben led the Steelers to a conversion rate of 52% (13-of-25), which included a clutch game-sealing conversion against the N.Y. Jets in the AFC Championship.
Sportsbook.com has some nice props offered for 3rd and 4th down conversions:
Steelers - Total 3rd Down Conversions MADE
(Conversions by Penalty Does Not Count/Overtime Does Not Count)
3rd Downs Conversions Over 5.5 +115
3rd Downs Conversions Under 5.5 -145
Packers - Total 3rd Down Conversions MADE
(Conversions by Penalty Does Not Count/Overtime Does Not Count)
3rd Downs Conversions Over 5.5 (+110)
3rd Downs Conversions Under 5.5 (-130)
Packers - Will they Convert a 4th Down Attempt
(4th down Conversion by Penalty Does Not Count)
Yes +160 No -200
Steelers - Will they Convert a 4th Down Attempt
(4th down Conversion by Penalty Does Not Count)
Yes +140 No -170
Experience
This will be the third trip to the Super Bowl for Pittsburgh in the last six years and in case you forgot, they won the first two. The Steelers have 25 players on their roster with experience in the finale, while Green Bay only has defensive back Charles Woodson and defensive end Ryan Pickett. Does it matter? In last year’s Super Bowl, New Orleans defeated Indianapolis and it certainly didn’t have the experience edge. And a few years before, the N.Y. Giants upset a New England squad that had multiple players making return trips.
Conclusion
It’s evident that both teams take chances and they’ve both been rewarded at times too. We feel that Pittsburgh has been more opportunistic, plus Big Ben’s ability to make big plays out of nothing is unmatchable in the NFL.
Edge: Pittsburgh
VegasInsider.com