Super Bowl XLV Picks & Predictions
By Anthony Rome
ARLINGTON, TX (The Spread) - After two weeks of waiting, this is it - the Super Bowl is almost here. Kickoff is approaching fast! Continue reading for predictions, odds and trends on Super Bowl XLV.
View Current Super Bowl XLV Odds
According to odds makers from online sports book Sportsbook.com, the Packers are 3-point favorites over the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. While the total could change, the current over/under total is 45 at most books, but it’s 44.5 at others and could reach 46 by kickoff.
The Steelers enter Super Bowl Sunday with a 14-4 overall record and are 12-6 against the spread according to latest NFL trends. The total is 9-9 this season, as they’ve averaged 23.9 points per game but have allowed only 15.3 PPG.
The Packers have obviously been equally impressive, winning 13 of their 19 games this season and going 12-7 against the number. The under is 12-7 in their 19 games this season, although they’re averaging 25.2 points per game this season and 15.3 points allowed.
Super Bowl XLV Prediction: This is it - one last change for bettors to cash in before the 2010-11 NFL season is finally in the books. This time of year is always exciting but it’s also a little disappointing because we’ll have to wait months for the new season (if there even is a season next year with a lockout looming). But enough of the drama - let’s get to the game.
The first thing that backers of the Steelers will bring up is experience. Pittsburgh has won two of the last six Super Bowls and Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 as a starter in the big game. If he wins tonight, he’ll be 3-0 in championship games and have just as many Super Bowl wins as Tom Brady and Joe Montana - pretty exclusive company.
But experience doesn’t mean anything once the ball is placed on the tee at the start of the game. The Steelers may have been more prepared to deal with travel arraignments and the media, but at the end of the day football will still be played and experience flies out the window. Simply put, this is a nice matchup for the Packers.
Pittsburgh has the best run defense in the league but here’s the thing: Green Bay doesn’t run the ball. James Starks has given their running game a spark over the last couple of weeks but James Starks won’t be relied on to win the Packers a Super Bowl - Aaron Rodgers will be. And Pittsburgh’s secondary can be had. Rodgers is extremely good at getting the ball out of his hand quickly and finding open receivers. If the Packers can spread the Steelers out and force them to get into their nickel and dime packages, the results could be great for Green Bay. The last team to successfully get Pittsburgh out of its base defense (where coordinator Dick LeBeau does his most damage) and into its dime package was New England, which crushed the Steelers during the regular season. If the Packers can get Lawrence Timmons (a solid coverage linebacker) off the field and replaced with Anthony Madison, that’s an advantage for them. And that’s an advantage that they will exploit.
Now that the spread has reached 3, things get a little interesting. Obviously the Steelers can win this game outright; they wouldn’t be here if they couldn’t. Green Bay must stop Rashard Mendenhall because he’s the key. When he rushed for over 80 yards this season, the Steelers were 6-1. But the Packers have that feel of destiny about them and this is truly a matchup that they can exploit. I like Green Bay -3, but I really like them at -2.5 if you can buy the hook. Either way, this will be an outstanding game and one that could very well come down to the wire. No matter what side you’re on today, best of luck and enjoy the game.
2011 SUPER BOWL XLV FREE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS -3