Super Bowl XLV Service Plays

Michael Anthony

Green Bay Packers ML

DOUBLE DRAGON

HYDRA - PACKERS PK -135

Larry Ness

10* Pittsburgh Steelers

Sometimes, you just can't make this stuff up. Consider this. The two winning QBs on championship Sunday were Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (with a QB rating of 55.4 vs the Bears) and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger (with a QB rating of 35.5 vs the Jets). However, that doesn't tell the whole story of these two QBs. Rodgers missed Week 15 with a concussion but then returned to lead the Packers to wins over the Giants and Bears to qualify for the postseason. He then led them to wins at Philly and Atlanta prior to the NFC title game in Chicago. In those four "elimination" games, he completed 72.7 percent of his passes for an average of 294.8 YPG with 11 TDs and just one INT (three of four game QB ratings were 122.5 or higher!). As for Big Ben, let's not forget what he's been through this season, admittedly self-imposed. He sat out the first four games of the regular season (league suspension) but returned to lead the Steelers to a 9-3 record in 12 games, completing 61.7 percent for 3,200 yards with 17 TDs and just five INTs (97.0 QB rating). He was superb in the comeback vs Baltimore in the divisional round, completing 19-of-32 for 226 yards with two TDs and no INTs (QB rating of 101.8). Yes, he did not play a good game vs the Jets but when he HAD TO, 'nursing' a 24-19 lead, converted two 14-yard first down throws, the first on second down and the second on a third-and-six, to secure the win. He's now 10-2 all-time in postseason games, second-best to only Bart Starr's 9-1 record as a starting QB. I'm not surprised the Packers are favored (the public is currently 'in love' with Aaron Rodgers) but I still don't quite "get it." Running on Pittsburgh is virtually impossible. The Steelers allowed 62.8 YPG on the ground during the regular season, just under 30 yards less than any other team. They allowed 3.0 YPC and just five TDs. Pittsburgh then held the Ravens to 35 yards rushing on 18 carries (1.9 YPC). Note that Rice had a 14-yard TD run in that game, meaning Baltimore gained just 21 yards on 17 carries (1.2 YPC) the rest of the game (are you kidding me!). Then, in taking a 24-3 halftime lead vs the Jets, Pittsburgh held New York to ONE rushing yard! Yes, as Pittsburgh "went into a shell" in the second half, the Jets finished with 70 yards rushing for the game but c'mon, that's 52.5 YPG (2.6 YPC) in two postseason games, against two EXCELLENT running teams. Now everyone will agree, the Packers are NOT an excellent rushing team. Starks ran for 123 (5.3 YPC) vs a battered and beat-up Philly defense in the wild card round but then carried 47 times for just 140 yards (3.0 YPC) vs the Falcons and Bears. Quoting the movie Donnie Brasco, "forget about it," the Packers WILL NOT be able to run on the Steelers. In comparison, Mendehall (1,273 yards TY) is coming off an excellent effort vs the Jets (121 yards) and while the Packers allowed a respectable 114.9 YPG on the ground this season, they also allowed 4.7 YPC. Note that only the Bills, who ranked last in the NFL while allowing 169.6 YPG on the ground allowed a higher average (4.8). The Packers have been ahead in all three playoff games this season, so running the football hasn't ben much of an option for their opponents. I believe that will CHANGE in Super Bowl XLV. I also truly believe Mike Tomlin is a "TD better" on the sidelines than his counterpart Mike McCarthy, as I'm arguing that Green Bay lost all six of its games this year by four points or less, not by accident, but rather by "something lacking" in the decision-making (and execution) process. Only time will tell if I'm right. Only four QBs have won three (or more) Super Bowls in history. Bradshaw and Montana own four wins while Aikman and Brady own three apiece. Expect Big Ben to join that group on Feb 6.

Teddy Covers

Packers

Steelers / Packers Over

Northcoast

System Play - Pittsburgh Steelers

Sixth Sense Prop Plays

A couple of items before we get to the props. These will not count on the record because many people won’t be able to play them or the lines will vary dramatically from what is here, etc.

They are meant more as a guide as to what I think may happen and maybe between those and what I say below you can use the information to find other props as well.

I expect the Packers to throw a lot in this game because Pittsburgh doesn’t have the depth in the secondary to cover four and five receiver sets. With that said, Mike McCarthy also says it’s important to get carries out of the rushing game. He isn’t concerned with yards per carry as much as attempts to keep the balance on the rest of the offense.

As much as they will be throwing the ball, it’s hard to tell who will get the receptions so with the exception of one player, I am avoiding receivers on the props.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, ran the ball 46% of the time this year but when they played better teams that number decreased to 41%. They were able to run the ball against the weaker teams but forced to throw when playing playoff teams. So, as much as they like to run the ball, don’t be surprised if they throw more than their seasonal numbers would indicate.

The Packers allowed 4.6 yards per rush during the regular season but only 3.5 yards per play during the playoffs. And, when they had their defense healthy (with current group of guys), their defense has been very tough against the run as well.

I play these for about 1/3 of a regular side or total play. Be careful and don’t go nuts. If you have any questions, please let me know.

SB PROPS

James Starks plus yards over Rashard Mendenhall

I am seeing +24.5 yards but quite honestly I would play this at +15 or better. Starks hasn’t been great rushing the ball outside the Philadelphia game but GB has been solid defending the run and will look to stop Pittsburgh’s rushing attack.

Jordy Nelson over 3.5 receptions +130

I like Nelson who is a possession type receiver and as long as you can get 3.5 at even or better I like the play.

Over 5.5 sacks at +115 or better

Both teams are strong in sacks this year and both qb’s like to hold the ball trying to create something, which leads to more sacks as well.

Clay Matthews over ½ sack -160

I would play this up to -200. Matthews is a sack machine and the Packers will give him plenty of opportunities to get to the qb.

Desmond Bishop over 7 tackles and assists -130

As long as we get -135 or better I think there is value

James Farrior over 7 tackles and assists +105

I would play this at even or better OR over 6.5 at -155 or better

Troy Polamalu over 4.5 tackles and assists -135

I like this at -150 or better

Rashard Mendenhall under 18.5 rushing attempts +130

I would play this at even or better. I’ve also seen under 20 at -175 or better. Packers will look to stop the run first and if Pittsburgh gets behind they will need to throw more as well.

James Starks over 16.5 rushing attempts +110

I would play this at 17 or lower. Starks has run 23, 25 and 22 times in the playoffs. Yes, the Steelers are tougher to run on but McCarthy likes to get his rushing attempts so there should be plenty of opportunities here. Knowing the only way the opportunities don’t happen is if the Packers fall way behind, that isn’t likely because GB hasn’t trailed by more than seven points this year.

Pittsburgh under 21.5 points -120

GB just doesn’t give up points so under 21.5 is a good play knowing GB has only allowed more than 20 points on the road this year twice and that was because of turnovers and special teams.

If you can find Roethlisberger over 30.5 passing attempts at even or better I like that play as well.

I would also play GB over 7.5 players with a reception if you can find it at +145 or better.

Wunderdog

Green Bay Packers ML

It is hard to believe the Superbowl is now 45 years old. The hype machine keeps running and getting stronger. Last year's game was the top-rated ever, and this year could surpass that. It is the Title Town Green Bay Packers vs. the storied Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers started the season with a four game suspension for Ben Roethlisberger. Many thought that suspension would derail any hopes of a Super Bowl for this team, but after a 3-1 start without Big Ben, all that was an afterthought. They relied heavily on their defense for the early games, which carried over all season long. The bets on this game initially came in on Pittsburgh but they have evened out and are currently evenly split. All indicators for this game are a close matchup and my computer matchup agrees, calling for a small Packers victory. But what do I think will happen? Diving below the surface tells us one team has an edge here... How many points will Green Bay score? Pitt finished as the top ranked stop unit in the NFL, allowing just 14.5 points and 277 yards per game. They gave up just 62.8 yards a game rushing and you have to go back to the 2006-07 Vikings (61.6) and the 2000-01 Baltimore Ravens (60.6) to find teams that did it better. The Steel Curtain has been even better in the post-season allowing just 52.5 ypg to the Ravens and the Jets (the fourth best running team in the league). I decided to go back and see just how well (or poorly), these big run-stop units fared in the Super Bowl. I looked at teams that finished the season ranked #1 - #3 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game. I was amazed at my findings. Since the 1998-99 Superbowl there have been nine such teams. If we throw out the 2000-01 Baltimore Ravens and NY Giants (they played each other), the other seven games saw the great run defense team go 1-5-1 ATS in the Superbowl. The next step was to see if it was because they gave it up on the ground, or other reasons. These great rushing defenses gave up over 100 yards in five of the seven games and 92 in another one, for an average of 114 ypg! So while many expect Pittsburgh to shut down the Packers on the ground, there's reason to believe that won't necessarily happen and topping the century mark is certainly possible. Green Bay has gotten a lot of mileage out of James Starks. He gives them a better option in the backfield than they had all season. He falls forward on every carry and has made Green Bay's previously anemic running game respectable. He will at the very least keep the Pittsburgh defense honest and I do believe he'll have a positive impact. But it isn't Green Bay's running game that is the concern for Pittsburgh here. Emerging Hall of Famer QB Aaron Rodgers has been spectacular this season and seems to be getting better. Since week eight, Rodgers has thrown 22 TD passes to just 4 INT's, and three of those came in two games vs. the Bears. Versus the rest of the league he went for 21 TD's and just 1 INT. In warm weather, on turf, he can rip you apart (see the Falcons game a few weeks ago). The Steelers great defensive stats this year were helped along by some luck. They really only faced two elite quarterbacks this season (Drew Brees and Tom Brady). In their other 16 games, they faced teams that were average or below average in passing (not one ranked better than 13 in passing). Against the two elite passing teams, Pitt gave up an average of 29.5 points per game! So don't be surprised if Aaron Rodgers has a big game here. On the intangibles front, Troy Polamalu just doesn't seem right. He's nursing a sore achilles that kept him out of two December games. It's lingering as he missed two practices last week. He's supposed to be fine but he just didn't seem his normal impactful self vs. the Jets last game. Versus great defenses like Pitt's, the Packers averaged around 20 points per game. Against offenses like Green Bay's, Pittsburgh's defense allowed an average of 15 points per game. So, that would indicate around 18 points scored by the Pack in this game. Let's turn to Pittsburgh... How many points will Pittsburgh score? When you think of defense in this game, which team comes to mind? Yeah, the Steelers. I mean they own the #1 defense and this team's logo is next to the word "defense" in the dictionary. But, you may be surprised that I think Green Bay may own the better defense going into this game. Many feel the Steelers will run it right down the Packers throat, as they allowed 4.7 yards per carry during the regular season. I'm not in that camp as the Pack has allowed just 3.5 per carry in three playoff games. On the season this defense gave up just six rushing TDs (only one more than the Steelers). The Packers defense finished #2 to the Steelers in fewest points allowed during the regular season, by just a half point per game (14.5 vs. 15.0). Throw in the playoff games and these teams are dead even, each allowing 15.3 points per game. Since the mid-point in the season, Green Bay's defense has allowed 12.9 points per game (compared to 16.1 for the Steelers). So while those believing that "defense wins championships" may be on the Steelers here, they should consider the Packers instead. The Steelers have huge weapons including Rashard Mendenhall and Ben Roethlisberger, a guy who simply finds ways to win in the postseason. But, they will either be playing here vs. an elite defense with a backup center or a hobbled one (Maurkice Pouncey). Don't underestimate the importance of this injury. In my opinion, outside of the QB, I believe the center to be the most impactful player injury. One fumbled snap or missed block, especially in an expected close game, can make all the difference. When facing defenses similar to Green Bay's, the Steelers averaged about 18 points per game this season. But here's the killer. When facing offenses similar to Pittsburgh's this season, the Packers allowed an average of 7.8 points per game! So, if these numbers are predictive, it could be a very rough game for Pittsburgh's offense. This one has all the ingredients and dynamics on paper to be a very close game. But, I think the Packers have a distinct edge. The Packers record doesn't look very hot this year as they "snuck" into the playoffs with a 10-6 record. How can they be favored vs. a team that had 12 regular season wins? Don't be fooled by the record. Let's look at Green Bay's six losses this season. All six came by 4 points or less (the first time this has ever happened). The last time a team lost even four games, each by 4 points or less was the 1987 Washington Redskins. That team won the Super Bowl. Two of the Packers' losses this season came by 3 points in overtime. Two of their losses were by field goals with 10 seconds or less to go in the 4th quarter. And, two losses came by 4 points each in games that Aaron Rodgers sat out. The bottom line is that their 10-6 record is a bit "false" and they are better than they appear. With a bit of luck, this team could have gone 14-2 instead of 10-6. I think in the end, Aaron Rodgers rises to the moment bringing another Lombardi Trophy back to Titletown. While you could play them at -2.5, I believe the best value is on Green Bay straight-up at -140 odds. The extra juice is worth it in my opinion, giving us a win even if they win a close one or two point game. Take the Packers to win this game.

Jim Feist

Inner Circle - Steelers +2.5

Lenny Del Genio

Will there be a defensive/special teams TD scored in the game? Yes +145 | No -170

We like to look for at least a few props where we can get 'plus money.' This is one such opportunity. Both teams ranked in the top six in the league in takeaways with the Steelers forcing 35 and the Packers 32. In the respective conference championship games, both teams scored a defensive TD. Last time Pittsburgh was in a Super Bowl, James Harrison returned an INT nearly 100 yards for a touchdown. Last time Green Bay was in a Super Bowl, return specialist Desmond Howard returned a punt for a TD. In last year's Super Bowl, the Saints clinched victory over Colts with an INT return for a TD. +145 odds is great value.

Which will be the highest scoring quarter? 1st Q +400 | 2nd Q +160 | 3rd Q +400 | 4th Q +200

Again, we are trying to look for 'plus money.' We looked over the last three Super Bowls and found there has been a disproportionate amount of scoring in the 4th quarter. In fact, those three fourth quarters saw: 15, 24 and 21 points scored. In sum, of the 129 points scored the last three Super Bowls, 59 of them were scored in the final quarter. There is always a feeling out process early in the game.

Brandon Lang

100 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 1st Half

Dwayne Bryant

3* Steelers / Packers Over 44

Jordy Nelson Pass Receptions Over 3 -145
Aaron Rodgers Pass Completions Over 22.5 -140
Aaron Rodgers Pass Attempts Over 34.5 -135

Jimmy Boyd

5* Packers -2.5

4* Steelers / Packers Under 45

Chris Jordan

2,000♦ Steelers / Packers Under 45

1,000♦ Pittsburgh Steelers +3

Rob Rosenhaus

2500* Pittsburgh Steelers +3