BIG AL
Green Bay Packers
SIXTH SENSE
Opinion
GREEN BAY -2.5 Pittsburgh 45
Pitt defeated the Jets 24-19 in the AFC Championship game. They out rushed the Jets 3.9ypr to 3.2ypr, including 166 yards to 70 yards. They also ran the ball 21 more times than the Jets. The Jets out passed Pitt 6.3yps to 5.8yps but did complete a 58 yard touchdown play. Take out that play and they averaged just 4.7yps. Overall, the Jets out gained Pitt 5.1yppl to 4.5yppl. Again, take away the long pass play and they averaged just 4.1yppl. Pittsburgh also diluted their stats by running the ball 21 more times and passing 14 times less.
GB jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Chicago and failed to put away the Bears when they had chances and had to ultimately hold on for a 21-14 victory. The Packers out rushed Chicago 3.8ypr to 3.5ypr and 120-83. They out passed Chicago 7.6yps to 5.4yps and out gained them overall, 5.7yppl to 4.7yppl.
The Steelers were very good throwing the ball this year, averaging 6.9yps with Roethlisberger. They are a run first offense, which averaged just 3.9ypr with Roethlisberger but held opponents to 3.1ypr and 5.2yps. Overall, they averaged 5.5yppl and allowed 4.5yppl when Ben played. The Packers averaged 7.2yps this year but just 3.8ypr for a total of 5.7yppl. They allowed 4.5ypr, 5.5yps and 5.1yppl.
But, this is where the teams start to change when we dig a little deeper into the competition. Pittsburgh ran the ball 48% (46% with Roethlisberger) of the time this year but when they faced playoff teams this year, they ran the ball only 41% of the time, throwing the ball 59%. Their run offense and defense remained close to the same but their pass offense took a dramatic dip, averaging only 5.8yps, while allowing 5.9ysp. Overall, they averaged 5.0yppl and allowed 4.8yppl. That’s quite a difference from their overall numbers with Roethlisberger. The playoff numbers are also game when Roethlisberger only played. Against playoff defensive teams, Pittsburgh averaged just 5.3yps. They allowed just 5.2yps but that’s because the good defensive playoff teams weren’t great throwing the ball.
GB, meanwhile, against playoff teams still only allowed 5.2yps and averaged 7.0yps (not counting the NE game where Rodgers was injured) so they weren’t affected much at all by playing good teams. When they faced good defensive playoff teams, they averaged 6.6yps (which was a slight drop off) but allowed only 5.0yps. The run/pass ratio for GB didn’t change much, running the ball only 43% for the year and 40% when playing playoff defensive teams.
Much of GB’s defensive rush problems came from quarterbacks that ran the ball on them early in the season. In the playoffs, against teams who are no worse than Pittsburgh running the ball, GB allowed only 3.5ypr, while averaging 3.7ypr. They made it a priority to stop the run and they did just that.
Pittsburgh has faced two good passing teams this year and lost at home to NE, 39-26 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. They lost at NO 20-10 in a game that was probably a little closer than the final score. In those games Pitts opponents threw the ball 43 and 46 times. No reason to believe GB won’t throw the ball a lot in this game as well. And, if Pittsburgh gets behind early, they will be forced to throw the ball like they did in the NE game, which could lead to a high scoring game.
Pittsburgh qualifies in a couple of playoff systems, which are 49-23-0 and 30-3. The first system is based on Pittsburgh having a much better regular season record than GB but the Packers lost all six of their games by four or less points and never trailed by more than seven points in a game this year. They were much better than a 10-6 team. The second situation is a fundamental rushing situation that barely qualifies Pittsburgh but GB has been much better against the run in the playoffs and without going into a lot of detail, Pittsburgh barely qualifies in this situation. Numbers favor Pitt by one point, using the full season and predict only 34 points. Using the playoff games, I get GB by two points.
Forget about last years game played between these two teams as both teams were missing two key defensive players. GB did throw the ball 48 times in that game and may do that again in this game. The numbers suggest Pittsburgh and the under. But, digging deeper tells me Pittsburgh doesn’t play as strong numbers wise against the better teams, while GB holds up much better. Also, knowing GB is probably going to throw the ball around the field in this game and if they get a lead, Pittsburgh will be forced to do the same thing, this game could be a high scoring game.
GB just doesn’t give up points and I don’t think they will give up more than 21 points in this game unless they get such a large lead that leads to a Steelers garbage touchdown. The Steelers are vulnerable in the secondary and GB has a team that can take advantage of that. And, the Packers defense is playing at an all time high right now. They are younger and faster than Pittsburgh on the defensive side and more explosive on the offensive side. GB has come off of three straight road games and lead just about the entire time in those games. Playing on a neutral field in this game should be much easier than those three road games. The lean here is towards GB and the under but be very careful with the under in this game. GREEN BAY 27 PITTSBURGH 17
Jack Jones
25* No-Brainer - Green Bay -2.5
I'm taking the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV to cap off what has been an amazing run to end the season. Sure, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the edge in experience as they are playing in their third Super Bowl in six years. But this is a new season, and when they get between those white lines the best team is going to win. I believe this is a very evenly matched game defensively, as both teams allow exactly 15.3 PPG. But I give the clear advantage offensively to the Packers. Green Bay is scoring 25.2 PPG and averaging 360 TYPG. Pittsburgh isn't far behind at 23.9 PPG and 337 TYPG, but the playing surface clearly favors the Packers. This game will be played in a dome inside new Cowboys Stadium. Sure, the Packers are used to playing in cold weather, but they are built to play in a dome. Aaron Rodgers in perfect conditions is basically unstoppable. Not that he hasn't been good outdoors, but indoors he's almost super-human.
In three dome games in which he started and finished this season, Rodgers has thrown for 1,011 yards and 8 touchdowns with no interceptions. He is the real deal, and will put to rest all of his critics that say he's not among the elite quarterbacks in this league until he wins a Super Bowl. Teams have had success spreading out the Steelers and throwing it around, the New England Patriots who beat the Steelers 39-26 earlier this season. Tom Brady threw for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns on 30-of-43 passing. I fully expect a similar peformance from Rodgers and the Packers Sunday. Defensively, the Packers will take advantage of a banged up Steelers offensive line as their blitzing scheme works to perfection. Ben Roethlisberger holds onto the ball way too long which is why Green Bay's blitzes will get to him. Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out really quick, which is why Pittsburgh's blitzes will not get to him. I am predicting a final score of Green Bay 28 - Pittsburgh 20. Roll with the Packers in Super Bowl XLV.
Maddux Sports
10 Units Steelers +3
10 Units Steelers / Packers Under 45
Tom Stryker
3* Pittsburgh Steelers +3
Trace Adams
2000♦ Green Bay Packers
500♦ Penn State
When each team won their respectave conference championships 2 Sunday's ago, I thought for sure that the experienced Pittsburgh Steelers would be installed as the slight favorite, but I was dead wrong in my assumption, as Green Bay comes into this game the slight favorite, and I am all about the Packers winning and covering this contest in Arlington, Texas.
To me Green Bay is just a little more complete as a team, and I really like the fact this game is being contestted indoors where I expect QB Aaron Rodgers to shine in a big way.
Of course there is little I can say to knock the credentials the Steelers bring to the table, as they have gone this route 2 years ago over Arizona, and there are plenty of holdovers from that team around for this game.
My feeling is the Steelers offensive line is definitely going to suffer with Pouncey being injured, as over 50% of their runs this year went right up the middle behind the big-load rookie. The fact the smaller Legurskey will be in there will make the Packers defensove job just a little easier.
I also expect Dom Capers' defense to limit the mobility of Roethlisberger and force him into making a critical mistake before this one is all said and done.
As for Aaron Rodgers, I am done doubting him. I went against him in ALL 3 previous playoff games, and I paid the price. Not today. Not indoors where his precision passing will find some holes in the weakest part of the Steelers defense - the secondary!
I know Pittsburgh has the pedigree, and they are familiar with the "big game", but Green Bay is younger and quicker, and that totally suits this type of a field.
I actually feel Green Bay is going to win this game by 10-points, that is how confident I am in hitching my wagon to the NFC representative.
Packers finish the mission as they win and cover Super Bowl XLV.
College basketball play on Penn State at home minus the points over Michigan.
Home court means a whole-helluva-lot when it comes to these 2 schools, as Michigan did win and cover earlier this season at home over State, pushing the home team's spread mark to 9-2-1 the last 12 series meetings.
The favored team is also on a pretty solid 12-3-1 run the last 16 showdowns.
Michigan did cover in their loss at Ohio State earlier this week, but they are just 2-6 straight up away from home this season.
Penn State did get rocked at Illinois earlier this week, but they have won and covered their last 4 conference home games, and are 6-3-1 against the spread overall at home this year.
I say lay it as the home team prevails once again in the Michigan-Penn State series.
Steven Budin
50 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
Joel Tyson
40 Dime Green Bay Packers
There is a reason the Packers are the favoraite in this game over the Super Bowl-experienced Steelers, and I think you are going to see why come the end of this game.
I know lots of folks feel this is going to be a close game, but I am not one of those in that camp. We have had a slew of "close" Super Bowls in recent years, as the underdog has covered 3 in a row, and 7 of the last 9. Outright dog wins in 2 of the last 3 years as well. Somethitng is telling me this one is NOT going to be close.
Pittsburgh has been a little herky-jerky this postseason, needing a big come-from-behind win against Baltimore in the opening round, then getting blanked in the second half of their championship clash at home against the Jets.
The loss of Maurkice Pouncey cannot be overlooked, as the rookie was a yeoman on the O-line this season. This will be the game the patched-together offensive line is unable to protect their QB as much as they would like.
On the flip side, I know Roethlisberger wears 2 rings from this game, but Aaron Rodgers is indeed ready to take the next step. He has been briloiant this postseason, and he is once again playing indoors where he has looked like the best-of-the-best once before against the NFC's # 1 seeded Falcons.
Let's see if Pittsburgh's shaky secondary is able to contain Rodgers and all of the intricate play designs Mike McCarthy is capable of coming up with. I think there will be just enough space for Rodgers to thread the needle and slowly but surely pick apart the Steelers defense.
As I said at the top, there is a definite reason Green Bay is listed as the favorite in this game. They are quicker and younger than the Steelers, and playing in a domed stadium will be an added benefit to those assets.
Play here on the Packers to win it, and cover it!
Chuck O'Brien
40 Dime Packers-Steelers Under
Let’s first address the pink elephant in the room, and that would be “37-36.” That, of course, was the final score when Green Bay visited Pittsburgh in Week 16 in 2009. It was indeed the shootout of all shootouts, with the teams not only combaning for 73 points, but also 973 total yards, of which 812 came via the air, the last of which came on a 19-yard scoring strike from Ben Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace on the game’s final play. But here are two facts you likely don’t know about that game: 1) Steelers strong safety Troy Polamalu sat out with an injury (and if you don’t think Polamalu is that much of a difference-maker on defense, you don’t know football), and 2) the Packers defense was awful for most of last season, giving up 30 points or more six times in 17 games, including 51 in a playoff loss at Arizona two weeks later. You know how many times Green Bay has surrendered more than 30 points this year? Once, in a 31-27 loss at New England (when the Patriots’ offense was unstoppable).
Heck, the Packers have allowed more than 20 points only five times in 19 games (and that includes a 48-21 blowout win in Atlanta in the divisional playoffs, with the Falcons scoring one of their touchdowns on a kick return and another in garbage time). Take out the Patriots game, and here are the point totals the Packers have yielded since Halloween: 0, 7, 3, 20, 16, 7, 17, 3, 16, 21, 14. That’s 11.3 points per game!
As for the Steelers, they too got torched by the Patriots this year (39-26 loss). Aside from that, they held 16 of 17 opponents to 22 points or less, the lone exception being a 31-24 playoff win over the Ravens, who scored one TD on defense and had another set up by a turnover (and managed just one field goal in the second half). Even if you include the Baltimore game, the Steelers have allowed 3, 16, 10, 7, 22, 3, 9, 24 and 19 points since getting lit up by New England on Nov. 14. That’s an average of 12.6 ppg.
Still not contvinced we’re dealing with two dominant defenses here? Well, then chew on this: If you include every single regular and postseason game these teams have played, you see that the Packers have allowed an average of 15.3 ppg, and the Steelers have allowed an average of – wait for it! – 15.3 ppg. Simply put, no team in the NFL was better at keeping opponents off the scoreboard than Green Bay and Pittsburgh. … What about the argument that the Packers are a “dome team that just happens to play its home games outdoors,” an argument bolstered by their 48-21 postseason win in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta? I’ll counter that argument with this: 7-3, 20-17 and 31-3. Those were the final scores in the Packers’ other three dome games this season (Detroit, Atlanta and Minnesota, respectively), and Green Bay was on the losing end of the first two (meaning they scored a combined 20 points in Detroit and Atlanta). … What about Pittsburgh’s performances in domes this year? There was just one game, at New Orleans on Halloween night. Final score: Saints 20, Steelers 10.
Finally, there’s this: Last year, the two most explosive ofoenses in football squared off in the Super Bowl, and the Saints (thanks in part to a defensive touchdown) beat the Colts 31-17. That game stayed under the total of 57 points, putting the under at 5-1 in the last six Super Bowls. Make it six of seven Super Bowl “unders” as this one ends 21-17.
Who wins? I don’t have a clue … and I don’t care!
Brett Atkins
50 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
I know the Packers are the glamorous pick to win this thing and everybody is excited about QB Aaron Rodgers and how good the offense has looked in the playoffs, but they haven’t faced a defense like the Steelers. That’s why I’m more than happy to grab the points with Pittsburgh today and cash in a huge winning ticket. The Steelers have won eight of their last nine games, giving up just 12.2 points per game during that run. Their lone loss in that streak was a 22-17 loss to the Jets on Dec. 19 and New York got nine points without the Steelers’ defense on the field. Offensivetly, the Steelers have averaged 30.8 points per game in the last four and 24.8 points per contest in the last 11. Since QB Ben Roethlisberger returned to the lineup from suspension, they have scored 23 points or more in 10 of 14 contests. Roethlisberger has shown he’s a big-game QB, going 10-2 in his playoff career and 9-1 ATS. He’s won two Super Bowls so he won’t be fazed by the big-game atmosphere. I’m looking for something lower scoring than a lot of people think and I expect the Steelers to come out on top with a fourth quarter TD or FG that gets them the win. Grab the points and play Pittsburgh.
Andy Fanelli
75 Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers as a 3 pt dog? You got me. Over 44 1/2 or so points*on an indoor fast track in a Super Bowl filled with TV timeouts?..again you got me. We all remember the scorefaest when these two teams met last and we all remember who won that game.
In fact I can load you up with past analysis just like every major sports program in this country already has. Or I can simply tell you the fotllowing: Defense wins Super Bowls.
This Steelers team is going to pound Rodgers and expose Green Bay as a one dimensional team. They will not be able to run the ball against Pittsburgh.
Nobody can!
Rodgers will be running for his life and watch how many HOLDING CALLS Green Bay racks up. I'd say at least 4 in this game. Green Bay will rack up yards, yes...But they will fumble. And like the game agoinst the Bears that sent them into the playoffs...It may seem like Green Bay is going up and down the field but the points will not be on the board. I expect Green Bay to get a late TD to push this game Over the total but it will be too late, and Pittsburgh will have the game in hand.
NOW FOR THE PROPS
I HAVE SOME STEALS IN THIS SUPERBOWL. And while I can't guarantee that these will all hit, in fact I promise they won't ALL HIT...I can assure you that the likelihood of them hitting is greater than the price being asked. These plays will make you the talk of the party, and separate you from all the pretenders on amateur night. And make no mistake...This is gambling amateur night... But Fanelli's got your back.
prop #1
1st team to kick off -- Take Pitt -130 on this one. Pitt is going to defer and give the Pack the ball if they win the toss. Green Bay on the other hand I'm not so sure about. I think they want to get that ball into Rodgers hands early, get him settled in and try to force the Steelers game plan with an early score. Either way with this toss I'd say it's very probable Pitt is kicking to start this game.
prop # 1 -- Pittsburgh to kick off -- 10 dime play
prop # 2 -- PITTSBURGH over 21 total points
For reasons stated in my game analysis. I expect a few short fields for Pittsburgh after turnovers and I expect Roethlisberger to have a strong game.
Prop # 2 -- 5 dime play Pittsburgh over 21 total points
Prop # 3
Pittsburgh to score first and win the game + 200
Neither Pittsburgh winning or scoring first is difficult to imagine. Why not take the +200 money line on this?
Prop # 3 -- 5 dime play Pittsburgh to score first and win the game.
PROP # 4
Team to record the first sack. Like I said earlier I expect the Packers to get the ball first which instantly increases the likelihood of Pittsburgh recording the first sack as I don’t see GB scoring on the initial drive either. The fact that Pittsburgh is +105 TO RECORD THE FIRST SACK OF THE GAME is a STEAL.
5 dime play -- Steelers to record first sack
Prop # 5
The first TD of game -- Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Mendenhall...These are all quality picks and make the juice worth the squeeze. Roethlisberger on a 1 yd sneak seems extremely possible and at +1500 I gotta’ get myself in on that. Also seems pretty probable to me that Mendenhall (+450) could get in and a roll out pass to Hines Ward (+900) is an extraordinary value as well.
Roethlisberger +1500 -- 1 dime play
Hines Ward +900 -- 1 dime play
Mendenhall +450 -- 1 dime play
Prop # 6
LAST TD OF THE GAME
I am not a psychic but I’m as close as you are going to get when it comes to Super Bowls. I am 7-0 on sides the last 7 years and that is documented. Well, for whatever reason I keep seeing an important QB sneak for a TD in this game. Maybe it’s because both of these QB’s can use their legs or are hard to take down...But I do see a nice value on the Last TD of this game being scored by Rodgers or Roethlisberger.
Last td -- Ben Roethlisberger +1500 -- 1 dime play
Last td -- Aaron Rodgers +1200 -- 1 dime play
PROP #7
1ST POINTS OF GAME.
THE BEST PLAY HERE is the Steelers on a rushing TD. At +300 I love this play. And of course I'll be rooting for Mendenhall or Roethlisberger to score it.
3 dime play -- Pitttsburgh rushing TD as first score
PROP # 8
PITTSBURGH BY 7-10 PTS AT HALFTIME.
MY FINAL PROP PLAY SEEMS LIKE A LONGSHOT BUT I ASSURE YOU IT’S NOT. THIS ONE will give your bookie fits at halftime. I want you to play Pittsburgh to be winning by 7-10 POINTS at halftime as a +600 money line prop. I see this game as 17-10 pitt at halftime and I can find no greater value on the board to back this.
3 dime play -- Pittsburgh by 7-10 points at halftime. NOTE: Pitt winning by 7,8,9,10 pays out.
Well AS PROMISED, Fanelli COMES with guns blazing today...Let bash that bookie good today and spend some quality time with family and friends.
As always I will see you warriors on the other side!!!
Al DeMarco
20 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
5 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers ML
Chris Jordan
2,000♦ Steelers / Packers Under
1,000♦ Pittsburgh Steelers
Bob Valentino
50 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
Karl Garrett
50 Dime Green Bay Packers