2 Minute Warning
10 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
Sean Michaels
50 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
Anthony Redd
200 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
50 Dime Steelers / Packers Under
50 Dime Orlando Magic
Wayne Root
No Limit - Steelers +3
Millionaire - Steelers / Packers Under 44.5
Psychic
5 Units Pittsburgh +3 WISEGUY
1 Unit Over 44.5
1 Unit Pittsburgh +1 1st HALF
1 Unit Total rushing yards made by James Starks Under 50½ rushing yrds -140
1 Unit Total rushing yards made by Rashard Mendenhall - Over 81½ rushing yrds +130
1 Unit James Harrison +2000 MVP
Derek Mancini
40 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
Kelso
100 Units Green Bay Packers
25 Units Steelers / Packers Under
Jeff Benton
50 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
Going to keep this short, sweet and simple, and I’ll start by letting the numbers do the talking:
10-2. The Steelers’ playoff record in the Ben Roethlisberger era. (One of the losses? 31-29 to the Jaguars, who kicked the winning field goal with 37 seconds to play).
9-1. The Steelers’ ATS mark in their last 10 playoff games (incluaing cashing as a 2½-point home ‘dog in the two-point loss to Jacksonville in January 2008)
2-0. The Steelers’ SU and ATS mark in two Super Bowls in the Roethlisberger era.
6-1. The Steelers’ SU mark in seven all-time Super Bowl appearances, going 5-2 ATS (they were favored in five of those six games, and they cashed the only time they were an underdog).
8-1. The Steelers’ SU record in their last nine games coming into this contest. The one loss was a 22-17 setback to the Jets on Dec. 19, a defeat Pittsburgh avenged in the AFC title game – and the only reason the Jets got that W was because of a kickoff return for a touchdown and a fourth-quarter safety. Take those two plays away and Pittsburgh is riding a nine-game winning streak right now!
12.2. The Steelers average points per game allowed during their current 8-1 run.
30.8. The Steelers average points per game scored in their last four games, all wins. (Going back 11 games, they’re averaging 24.8 ppg, and since Roethlisberger returned from his suspension, Pittsburgh has scored 23 points or more in 10 of 14 games).
34-16-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last 51 games as an underdog.
16-5-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last 22 games as an underdog of three points or less.
4-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last five games as a playoff pup.
Need I go on?
Look, guys, I’m not saying the Packers don’t deserve to be here; any team that wins three straight playoff road games and five straight “elimination” games absolutely belongs. Nor am I saying the Steelers are going to win this Super Bowl by three touchdowns (honestly, I’ll be shocked if it’s decided by double digits). What am I saying is Pittsburgh has all the ingredients you want: a veteran, been-there, done-that quarterback (can’t say that about Green Bay), a power running game that can get tough yards and chew up clock (can’t say that about Green Bay), a dominating defense (Green Bay has that) that is impossible to run against (can’t say that about Green Bay), a head coach whom you know won’t wilt under the bright lights (can’t say that about Packers head man Mike McCarthy), and a lengthy, inarguable Super Bowl pedigree that includes two championships in the last four years.
And on top of all this you’re giving me points (when the underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run in the Super Bowl, cashing in each of the last three)??? Three words: I’ll take it!
It doesn’t figure to be easy – and like the win over the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, it might come down to another last-minute Big Ben drive – but Pittsburgh will capture its record seventh Super Bowl title with a 24-20 victory.
Fairway Jay
Green Bay Packers
Steelers / Packers Under
Keith Glantz
25* Pittsburgh Steelers
25* Pittsburgh Steelers Over
25* NY Knicks
25* Penn State
25* Minnesota
Trace Adams
2000♦ Green Bay Packers
500♦ Penn State
When each team won their respectave conference championships 2 Sunday's ago, I thought for sure that the experienced Pittsburgh Steelers would be installed as the slight favorite, but I was dead wrong in my assumption, as Green Bay comes into this game the slight favorite, and I am all about the Packers winning and covering this contest in Arlington, Texas.
To me Green Bay is just a little more complete as a team, and I really like the fact this game is being contestded indoors where I expect QB Aaron Rodgers to shine in a big way.
Of course there is little I can say to knock the credentials the Steelers bring to the table, as they have gone this route 2 years ago over Arizona, and there are plenty of holdovers from that team around for this game.
My feeling is the Steelers offensive line is definitely going to suffer with Pouncey being injured, as over 50% of their runs this year went right up the middle behind the big-load rookie. The fact the smaller Legurskey will be in there will make the Packers defensrve job just a little easier.
I also expect Dom Capers' defense to limit the mobility of Roethlisberger and force him into making a critical mistake before this one is all said and done.
As for Aaron Rodgers, I am done doubting him. I went against him in ALL 3 previous playoff games, and I paid the price. Not today. Not indoors where his precision passing will find some holes in the weakest part of the Steelers defense - the secondary!
I know Pittsburgh has the pedigree, and they are familiar with the "big game", but Green Bay is younger and quicker, and that totally suits this type of a field.
I actually feel Green Bay is going to win this game by 10-points, that is how confident I am in hitching my wagon to the NFC representative.
Packers finish the mission as they win and cover Super Bowl XLV.
Penn State
Home court means a whole-helluva-lot when it comes to these 2 schools, as Michigan did win and cover earlier this season at home over State, pushing the home team's spread mark to 9-2-1 the last 12 series meetings.
The favored team is also on a pretty solid 12-3-1 run the last 16 showdowns.
Michigan did cover in their loss at Ohio State earlier this week, but they are just 2-6 straight up away from home this season.
Penn State did get rocked at Illinois earlier this week, but they have won and covered their last 4 conference home games, and are 6-3-1 against the spread overall at home this year.
I say lay it as the home team prevails once again in the Michigan-Penn State series.
Matt Rivers
300,000♦ Pittsburgh Steelers
25,000♦ Pittsburgh Steelers ML
Wrong team’s favored here people.
I know Green Bay has the sexy offense with Aaron Rodgers throwing it all over the place with those talented wide receivers.
They also have a great defense that can pressure the quarterback and force turnovers.
So why do I like the Steelers?
It’s simple.* They have the better all-around team and they’ve been here before.
Pittsburgh has a great defense.There’s no debating that.I know all the talking heads keep preaching how the Packers are going to spread the Steelers out and this game is being played indoors on a fast track. In fact, if I hear that anymore I might get sick.
But don’t you think the Steelers are prepared to defend that?
Look, Dick LeBeau has been around forever and he’s shut down better offenses than this.* Rodgers is going to get pressure from the Steelers talented linebacker corps and it’s going to disrupt the rhythm of Green Bay’s passing game.You all saw what happened to Rodgers after he got drilled by Julius Peppers in the NFC Championship game.He started missing some throws, turned the ball over and couldn’t get Green Bay’s offense back on track.
Trust me; if James Harrison has a chance he’ll gladly take the flag and the subsequent fine to lay Rodgers out.If that happens I really don’t have any confidence that the Packers can hang here.
On the other side of the ball, I have the utmost confidence in Ben Roethlisberger and his ability to get outside the pocket when the pass rush is on him and to make big throws down the field.* Green Bay can scheme all they want.Once Big Ben gets outside the pocket it’s all freelancding from there.
You just can’t defend that because it’s backyard football at it’s finest.* And Ben has used that to win two Super Bowls already.
I’m also looking for Rashard Mendenhall to have a big game for the Steelers on the ground.Look at what he did against the Jets, and they have a much better run defense than Green Bay’s. If Mendenhall is gouging the Packers it’s going to allow the Steelers to control the clock and keep Rodgers and his mates on the sidelines.
The ATS trends also favor Pittsburgh here.
Rodgers is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when he’s playing as the listed favorite against .700 or greater opposition.Big Ben is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in his playoff career.He’s also 12-1 SU in his career against .600 or greater NFC foes.
I believe the Steelers are going to win this game, but taking them plus the points makes this a max play.
Take Pittsburgh plus the points and remember to buy the ½ point up if your line is anywhere between +2½ and +4.
Pittsburgh Steelers ML
Look, anytime you’re getting what you feel like is the betrer team as the underdog you need to get down on the moneyline with them.
I’ll take Pittsburgh at +120 to +130 all day long in this game!
I’m not going to be repetitive and tell you everything I just did in my analysis above.After reading that you should be convinced that I like them to win the game.
Take the Steelers on the moneyline and let’s add some bonus profits to our bankroll!
Joel Tyson
40 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
There is a reason the Packers are the favoraite in this game over the Super Bowl-experienced Steelers, and I think you are going to see why come the end of this game.
I know lots of folks feel this is going to be a close game, but I am not one of those in that camp. We have had a slew of "close" Super Bowls in recent years, as the underdog has covered 3 in a row, and 7 of the last 9. Outright dog wins in 2 of the last 3 years as well. Somethidng is telling me this one is NOT going to be close.
Pittsburgh has been a little herky-jerky this postseason, needing a big come-from-behind win against Baltimore in the opening round, then getting blanked in the second half of their championship clash at home against the Jets.
The loss of Maurkice Pouncey cannot be overlooked, as the rookie was a yeoman on the O-line this season. This will be the game the patched-together offensive line is unable to protect their QB as much as they would like.
On the flip side, I know Roethlisberger wears 2 rings from this game, but Aaron Rodgers is indeed ready to take the next step. He has been brilriant this postseason, and he is once again playing indoors where he has looked like the best-of-the-best once before against the NFC's # 1 seeded Falcons.
Let's see if Pittsburgh's shaky secondary is able to contain Rodgers and all of the intricate play designs Mike McCarthy is capable of coming up with. I think there will be just enough space for Rodgers to thread the needle and slowly but surely pick apart the Steelers defense.
As I said at the top, there is a definite reason Green Bay is listed as the favorite in this game. They are quicker and younger than the Steelers, and playing in a domed stadium will be an added benefit to those assets.
Play here on the Packers to win it, and cover it!
Jay McNeil
40 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
The Green Bay Packers are the hotter of the two teams, coming into the big game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, however, are the more amazang of the two from the start of the season to the end.
The Steelers forgot their quarterback was on the shelf at the start of the campaign, and still pulled off a 3-1 start, includidng wins over Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
The Packers have won five straight, yes, but prior to winning a quintet of elimination games, they lost three of four - including a 7-3 setback at Detroit.
When you look at the two schedules, you have to be more impressrd with how the Steelers made their way through theirs, as opposed to the Packers.
That's what I'm gauging my choice on - schedule strength.
The Packers' biggest wins cam against: Philly (twice), the Jets, the Giants, the Falcons and Bears (twice). Now, of those seven wins, two were throughout the regular season. The other five were the last five they played.
The Steelers have endured a tougher schedule, starting with the AFC North, and taking on the Ravens three times, Bengals twice and Browns twice. They also played the Falcons, Buccs, Saints, Patriots, Raiders and Jets (twice). That's 14 hard-fought games. Take out the Bengals and Browns if you like, that leaves 10.
Look, Pittsburgh was just here two years ago, and the experience is on its side. Remember when New England embarked on its three Super Bowl run before making way to the Giants? The Steelers need to complete the trifecta now.
Take the points.
Derek Mancini
40 Dime Pittsburgh Steelers
Let me start out this analysis by repeating my mantra I've told you guys over and over again this season: "Oddsmakers aren't stupid!" They know perception better than anyone, and there's no question they use that knowledge to play the public like a fiddle. Case in point is tonight's Big Game.
*
Oddsmakers know that the public loves the Packers, so you knew they were going to open with the Packers as the favorites. They set it at the perfect number to make it "believable," - 2 1/2, with the expectataon that the public would drive up the price to -3... Which is exactly what they did. I believe the oddsmakers did this because they're expecting a very close game, one in which I envision the Packers winning, but not covering. That is partly the reason I advised you to buy the 1/2 point, because I see no more than field goal separating these two teams.
From a match up standpoint, the Packers are going to have serious issues attacking this Steelers defense with only the pass. Given two weeks to prepare for a one-dimensional offense, Dick LeBeau is not to be trifled with. Same can be said for Capers, once again showing how close this game is. However, the Steelers defense is the more complete unit, as the Packers are vulnerable vs the run, specifdically right up the gut.
This brings me to next point. Although I'm not a big fan of Mendenhall, his ability to move the chains will be the difference in this contest. We saw the Steelers pound the Jets with Mendenhall run after Mendenhall run, and it eventually wore them down. Look for a similar strategy tonight. Granted, the Steelers secondary is vulnerable against the pass, so you could make the argument either way, BUT, at the very least the Steelers offense is not as one dimensional as the Packers.
You can't put a price on experience, and Roethlisberger's championship credentials are tough to ignore. He was so much better in his second Title game than in his first, and we can only expect he'll be even more calm, cool, and collected in his 3rd. Same cannot be said for Rodgers, eventhough he is the more talented signal caller, he could very well be susceptible to the huge pressure inherent in a game like this. He was awful in the second half of the NFC Championship game, and not only is there MUCH more prersure in the Big Game, but he's also facing a better, more prepared defense. Long story short, given everything I've said, I still believe we see no more than a field goal separating these two teams. Take Pittsburgh plus the points (remember to buy the 1/2 point as instructed) over Green Bay in tonight's Championship Game.