Super Bowl XLV Service Plays

Craig Davis

100 Dime Green Bay Packers ML

20 Dime Minnesota

You might wonder why I'm electing to take the Packers on the money line instead of the point spread... insurance. It is absolutaly worth it to spend a little extra money up front to save yourself in case of a fluke play that throws these numbers out of whack. I feel VERY strong that the Green Bay Packers will find a way to win this game, whether it be a last second field goal or a last minute defensive stand... Green Bay will win this game. I also believe they'll cover the 2 1/2 points Vegas is asking them to cover, but for purposes of my release, I'm asking you to play the money line. I don't believe Pittsburgh is the right side here because I don't believe they will win the game, and 2 1/2 or 3 points just isn't enough for me.

Yes, I'm fully aware of the Steelers history in this game. I realize Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 in Super Bowl starts and several of these players have been to at least one of the two Pittsburgh Super Bowls over the last five year (some played in both games), but I'm flat out tired of hearing what the Steelers did in past years. Just because the Yankees won the World Series four times in the late 90s didn't mean they were guaranteed to win the next year, did it? The Yankees won again two years ago, were the heavy favorites coming into the 2010 season, but couldn't get past the Texas Rangers in the ALCS. Texas had virtually no playoff experience while the Yankees were steeped in tradition, but Texas completely dominated the series because they were the better team that year.

In my opinion, the same thing applies in this game. I can't tell you how many times this week I've heard about how Pittsburgh's experience in this game will be the difference and how Ben Roethlisberger is much more prepared than Aaron Rodgers to have a good game because he's been here twice and won both times. With no disrespect to Big Ben (because I believe he's really good), but his defense and the refs won him that first Super Bowl... and if it weren't for one of the best catches I've seen in a Super Bowl from Santonio Holmes, the Cardinals would have beaten them for that one. But this is a different year, a different season, a different team, and a different opponent. Each game has its own set of problems, and this game will be nothing like the last two Super Bowls Pittsburgh played in.

What we need to do is focus on the here and now. The 2010 Steelers and the 2010 Packers... not the 2006 Steelers and 2010 Packers. I'll admit, on paper this is one of the most closely contested Super Bowls in recent history. Although I think Green Bay is the right side here, it wouldn't shock me if the Steelers won yet another Super Bowl. But it's going to take some serious breaks for the former champs to get it done today. They're going to have to hope the Packers have an inordinate amount of turnovers and penalties, because that's the only way I believe they win here.*

Aside from all the offensive stats and defensive stats I could give you to defend my selection, I wanted to talk about one of the biggest headlineds of the week in Pittsburgh... the injury to center Maurkice Pouncey. Steelers fans can downplay this injury all they want, the fact is, it sucks for Pittsburgh. This is a major loss to an already banged up offensive line. The only lineman who has played every game this year is veteran Flozell Adams who came over to Pittsburgh from Dallas via free agency. No Max Starks, no Willie Colon, no Maurkice Pouncey... granted they have figured out a way to survive without Colon and Starks all season, but losing your center really hurts. Doug Legursky is not the answer, but he's going to have to play well in order for the Steelers to have a chance.

What this does to the Steelers is force them to have to double team Packers NT B.J. Raji, and while he's being doubled it's going to open things up for someone like Clay Matthews or Cullen Jenkins or even CB Charles Woodson to come on the blitz. And the reason the Packers don't have a problem blitzing is because they have one of the best secondaries in the league. Green Bay beat the Eagles, Falcons and Bears because their defensive secondary made play after play after play. When you have a secondary that can give you man-coverage, that allows you to do so many things up front. Pittsburgh doesn't have that advantage because their pass defense is less-than-stellar and was torched in the second half two weeks ago by the Jets.

And speaking of New York's second-half comeback in the AFC Championship game... do you remember what the Steelers offense did in the final 30 minutes of that game without Maurkice Pouncey? They produced less than 100 yards of offense and gave up a safety in the process. The Jets had a few issues in the first half or they would have won that game. The Jets turned the ball over twice in the first half which led to a short field on one touchdown drive, and another touchdown was scored when Mark Sanchez was sacked, a fumble was called on the field, and the fumble was returned for a touchdown. I'm still not sure to this day that was a fumble, but nonetheless Pittsburgh got the points that I don't believe they will get today.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense beat Atlanta by using a quick passing game. He's so accurate he won't worry about Pittsburgh's quick linebackers. Pinpoint, accurate passing will beat any defense, especially when the QB can get rid of the ball as quickly as Rodgers does. And let's also not forget Rodgers isn't afraid to run the football, scoring four rushing touchdowns this year. You can be he won't hold back, considering this is the last game of the season. There were a few games where Rodgers came back from a concussion and played a little tentative... not today. He'll give the fans a show from the first possession on.

I'm not going to bore you with stats or ATS trends or any other worthless numbers... I'm just going to tell you the Packers are the right side of this game because I believe they're better and so many people out there think Pittsburgh is the right side. Play the Packers on the money line as your top play of the day.

Minnesota

Ohio State is giving up too many points to a very competitive team when they play at home. The Gophers are 11-1 at home, suffering their only loss of the season there when lowly Virginia came to town and beat them by 8. That obviously wouldn't hapren today as that was a fluke win. We know what Virginia is all about. Since then the Gophers have reeled off 8 straight wins and haven't lost to a conference opponent at home.

Remember, too, a couple of weeks ago when Minnesota visited the Buckeyes and came back from 18 down to nearly pull off a major upset? The Gophers had a chance to tie it with a late three but it was blocked and the Buckeyes escaped with a three-point win. Don't think the Gophers don't remember that game and won't come out with revenge on their minds this afternoon. Plus, being the #1 team in the country you always have a target on your back. Every team the Buckeyes face from now till the end of the season will be putting their best foot forward when they come to town.*

The Gophers have won three straight home games against the Buckeyes at home and the home team is 7-1 ATS over the last eight meetings. The Gophers are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a SU winning record. Ohio State, on the other hand, is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a SU winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Minnesota may or may not win this game, but I just don't see them losing by more than five.

.

Telly

Here are my props. I have my side and total at my site always free.

Props-
Heath Miller total yardage over

Aaron Rodgers over 23 completions.

Jimmy Boyd

3* NJ Nets +1

EZWINNERS

3* Green Bay Packers

PPP

4% Pittsburgh Steelers

Dr Bob

Philadelphia 76ers

Opinion/Possible Best Bet

L.A. Clippers (+11½) over MIAMI

Miami is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games with all 3 of their stars playing, but they’re just 3-3 ATS in those games when favored by more than 10 points and just 5-9 ATS in that spread range for the season. Los Angeles, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 9 points or more and the Clippers apply to a very good 31-4-1 ATS subset of a 208-96-5 ATS road bounce-back situation that is based on their consecutive losses to Chicago and Atlanta. Unfortunately, the Clippers aren’t as good without leading scorer Eric Gordan and my ratings favor Miami by 12 points in this game. Miami has won 4 home games by exactly 12 points but they’ve won just 6 of their 22 home games this season by more than 12 points (but 9 of 20 by 12 or more with all 3 stars playing). The situation is strongly in favor of the Clippers and the line is nearly fair, but Miami could be motivated by the fact that they lost to the Clippers in L.A. earlier this season (although Miami is just 1-2 ATS in home revenge games this season). That earlier result may actually benefit the Clippers, who will have the confidence necessary to compete knowing that they can beat the Heat. I’ll lean with the Clippers at +11 or +11 ½ and I’d take the Clippers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 or more.

Sunday College Opinion

WISCONSIN (- 8½) over Michigan State

Michigan State was a vastly overrated team entering the season and my ratings favor Wisconsin by 10 points in this game – so there is still some line value in fading the Spartans. Wisconsin has a history under coach Bo Ryan of covering against mediocre and bad teams, especially when not laying 10 points or more. In fact, the Badgers are 43-24 ATS in regular season games when not favored by 10 or more against a team with a win percentage of .700 or less. The record in that spot is 33-8 ATS if Wisconsin is coming off a game in which they won and covered, which is the case here. Michigan State, meanwhile, is just 28-45-1 ATS under Tom Izzo in conference road games when not getting at least 11 points against teams with a win percentage of .600 or higher, including 12-30 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win. I’ll lean with Wisconsin minus the points based on the team trends.

Stephen Nover

15 Dime Steelers / Packers Over

10 Dime James Starks Under 17 Rushing Attempts

5 Dime Heath Miller Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

5 Dime Aaron Rodgers Over 22.5 Completions

5 Dime Aaron Rodgers Over 22.5 Rushing Yards

5 Dime Brandon Jackson Over 3 Rushing Attempts

5 Dime Brandon Jackson Over 10.5 Rushing Yards

Helmut

Wisconsin Under 123.5

Tim Trushel

Green Bay Packers

Steelers / Packers Over

Frank Patron

Pittsburgh / Green Bay Over 44.5

Charlies Sports

500* Steelers/Packers Under 45
30* Steelers +3
20* Minnesota +5.5
10* Boston Celtics -4

KELSO

100 Units Green Bay Packers -2.5
25 Units Green Bay Packers Under 45

15 Units North Carolina -7
10 Units Michigan St +9
10 Units Minnesota +5.5
5 Unit Parlay Michigan St & Minnesota
5 Units Fairfield Stags, -6.5

Judd Hall

Steelers vs. Packers
Pick: Packers -2.5

Perhaps it's just me, but this is the worst Steelers team to make it to the Super Bowl. And I'm counting the team that lost to Dallas in Super Bowl XXX in there, too. Pittsburgh is liable on defense to the pass. And I don't give a damn about Troy Polamalu, who is way overrated. Aaron Rodgers will have no problems in breaking down the Pittsburgh defense little by little. Green Bay has enough horsepower to pull off the biggest win of them all.

Evan Altemus

1* North Carolina -7

Florida State has really struggled on the road lately. They are just 1-3 straight up in their last 4 road games, and they were very close to losing at Miami. The Seminoles were also hammered in two out of their last three conference road games as well, losing in blowouts at Virginia Tech and at Clemson. North Carolina has quietly been playing better and better as the season has progressed. Since their 20 point loss at Georgia Tech, the Tar Heels have been rolling teams, winning and covering easily in their last 4 games. Florida State does play good defense but their offense really struggles at times. I expect North Carolina to win in a blowout.