Super Bowl XLVI Betting News and Notes

SBXLIV Betting Notes
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Before the Conference Championship games were played Sunday, most Las Vegas bookmakers had a feeling that the matchup between the Patriots-Giants would have New England being a 4½ to 5-point favorite for the Super Bowl. But just as New York’s Lawrence Tynes was kicking his game winning overtime field goal -- the second time he's done it in a championship game -- the LVH Super Book hung the Patriots minus-3, which came as a shockingly low number to a few.

Other books like the South Point and Station Casinos opened the Patriots at -3½-flat, but within minutes the line came tumbling down to -3. MGM Resorts went from -3½ to -3½ (EV) with hopes that they won’t ever go to the key number -3, a worst case scenario in a game of this magnitude if it lands on 3 and they find themselves bouncing on and off the number.

It’s apparent that we witnessed Sunday had a major bearing on what the Super Bowl line would open as.

“We just felt that the Giants aggressive play on both sides of the ball, especially their strong defensive play, was more impressive than the Patriots play, not only on Sunday, but against all quality competition this season,” said LVH executive director Jay Kornegay.

The Giants battled all game long against one of the league’s top defenses in their 20-17 win at San Francisco while the Patriots found themselves very fortunate to come out with a 23-20 home victory over the Ravens. The Giants have had the most rapid increase in their power rating the last five weeks.

Despite the game being on a key number right now, Kornegay said his booking strategy for a game of this magnitude will be vastly different from any of the playoff or regular season games played this season.

“We’re not going to settle in to a number right now,” said Kornegay, “we’ll probably have a larger extension to risk at a certain number as we get closer to the game, but early on we’ll let the money move us quicker until we find what the right number is whether that means 3, 2½ or 3½.”

Three is a dangerous number to play with and most sports books are probably hoping that the game runs one way or another to avoid the most popular margin of victory in pro football. The five year average of all pro football games shows 14.6% of all games landing on 3, not including both of Sunday’s Championship games which were both won by three-point margins.

Should the sports books find themselves jumping back and forth around the most dangerous number in the biggest game of the year, and then the favored team happened to win by 3, it’ll be a rough decision for the house.

The hope for most sports books is that the what-we-saw-last mentality wears off and that favored team gets back up to -3½, and maybe even -4, before the massive onslaught of action begins on the final weekend.

It was just last season when we saw a steady 3 last throughout with the favored Packers beating the Steelers 31-25. Before that, the last 3 we saw in the Super Bowl was the Ravens beating the Giants 34-7 after the 2001 season.

Regardless of what the number settles on, Kornegay expects handle to be great for this game.

“With these two teams, I would expect the handle to match last seasons ($87 million),” said Kornegay.

Last year’s Super Bowl saw a net win of only $724,176 across the entire state for a low 0.8% that left many major sports books as losers for the day, something they hope doesn’t reoccur this year. They definitely don‘t want a repeat the 2008 Super Bowl that saw the Giants win straight-up as 12-point underdogs against the Patriots. That was the worst Super Bowl in Nevada history with a loss of $2.57 Million (-2.8%).

That Super Bowl loss was spurred by the majority of small money piling up on a deflated money-line price with the underdog. Despite getting no value on the money-line, bettors still lined up to bet the Giants to win straight-up and the books couldn’t make up to the 3-to-1 payouts.

This is the only game of the year where sharp money means very little. The movement we saw Sunday night when the line was first posted was dictated by large money with lower limits. But once the days start to count down to February 5, all the little $20 bets will account for much more than a single $20,000 wager from a wise guy.

The all-time record for Super Bowl handle was in 2006 when a booming economy sent $94.5 million in wagers through Nevada sports book windows. The Steelers-Seahawks game didn’t provide the most glamorous matchup in Super Bowl history, but cash was flowing through Vegas from all neighborhoods at that time like never before.

If Nevada is able to match last year’s great matchup as Kornegay says is possible, than it should be considered a success. Now the hard part is winning and trying to match the all-time win record, which was in 2005 when books held 17% with $15.4 million in win. That was a bookmakers dream where the favored Patriots (-7) won 24-21, but didn’t cover against the Eagles and the game stayed UNDER (46½).

Sports Books Do Well Sunday

Between banking conference future wagers and beginning Sunday with the best possible scenario in the AFC Championship game, the Las Vegas sports books did well. It was a bookmakers dream with the favored Patriots (-7) winning 23-20, but not covering against the Ravens. The dream got even better when the game stayed UNDER the total (49).

There was still some leftover risk from that game going into the late game and the Giants had the edge from public play making it the worst possible decision. However, with the game staying UNDER the total (41), it made the best out of a possible bad situation.

“We did very well in the early games, but the bettors got some of it back late with the Giants,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “It didn’t help matters that 7-point teaser went 8-0 on the day and 6-point teasers went 7-1.”

Imagine that, if you had just gone to the betting window and said let me tease every side and total 7-points, you would have walked away a winner as every game stayed within the boundaries of the spread. Last season in the championship round, teasers were 7-1, which may be why some sports books don’t offer teasers in the playoffs.

South Point Sports Book Service

I spent Sunday afternoon watching and betting the games at the South Point sports book and my jaw dropped when I noticed that they had 12 windows exclusively open for sports betting. It’s the only all sports book in town that has a race book with each in its own separate part of the casino, which makes it nice, but that type of service in this era of companies squeezing every cent in their labor force left me in amazement.

Most other sports books in town have had to down size their labor force considerably. From an economic stand point, it’s understandable on their end because the labor expense is really the only expenditure that they can have a real grip on. Most of you may have noticed that more and more race and sports books have gone to having multi-task windows that take both pari-mutual horse and sports wagers. That all works nice when the time of day is slow, but at key moments such as when a race is going off and games are kicking or tipping off simultaneously, both race and sports bettors sometimes get shut out.

It’s easy for the book to say, ”You’ve had all day to bet this race or that game,” but at some point a depleted race and sports book staff -- which is the case almost everywhere in town -- should have cause for concern by upper management who rarely see those shut out moments.

The small percentage of guests that call to complain are brushed off as constant complainers and those who don’t complain just choose to go elsewhere and are never heard from again.

This is why a tip of the cap and a salute goes out to Osborne and his staff for never getting anyone shut-out and for Michael Gaughan ensuring that a lack of labor will never cost him a guest.

Books scared of a "Middle"
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We’ve had 10 Super Bowls with the spread hovering around minus-3 and none of them have landed on the number. This year’s Super Bowl opened with the Patriots as 3½-point favorites and quickly went to -3 and based on the way almost every book has -3 (EVEN) posted, it looks as though we could be seeing -2½ quickly, but Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert hopes it doesn’t and based on past history, it probably won‘t.

“I think 3-flat (-110) is the perfect number that the betting public understands,“ said Colbert who opened the Patriots -3 (-115) and is currently at -3 (-105). “I’m hoping we get balanced up enough to where we can go in to next week with a 3-flat.”

In recent history, we have seen four of the five Super Bowls that have landed on 3 occur and they all involved the Patriots. In each of their games, the spread never came into question as they were 14-point underdogs to the Rams, 7-point favorites against both the Panthers and Eagles and 12-point favorites against the Giants.

“I’m superstitious, so now I’m really not getting off the number,” Colbert said jokingly after told about the Patriots love of 3 in the Super Bowl. “Obviously we don’t want a push, but until we get overwhelming support for the Giants that puts us in too much jeopardy, I’m staying on the number.”

“We got early action on the Patriots because we opened lower than what the market had, but since then it’s been all Giants money. However, I do think it will even out because the Patriots have been a public team, along with the Packers, all season.”

There have been 37 games (13.9%) this season that landed on 3, including both Championship games last Sunday. The sports books want a decision in the game, but not at the risk of putting their property in harm’s way.

The last two Super Bowls that ended in pushes were the Rams (-7) beating the Titans 23-16 in SBXXXIV and the Packers (-14) beating the Patriots 35-21 in SBXXXI. In each case, there were lines a mile long at the books with everyone getting refunds. The books all ended up small winners due to propositions and OVER-UNDER wagers, but a decision with the type of volume that happens in these games is what they want, because it’s very rare that the books lose the big game.

But messing around with a key number can get a book into serious trouble by either getting sided or getting middle, which happened in the Super Bowl following the 1979 season when the Steelers played the Cowboys. Jimmy Vaccaro was just getting started in the sports book business at the Royal Inn and remembers it being a real education into bookmaking.

“You have to remember that things were much different back then. Most of the casinos in town didn’t have sports books, there was no Internet and most of the betting people did from outside the state was through bookmakers,” said Vaccaro. On the East Coast, many of the bookmakers knew people were going to bet the Steelers so they were making bettors lay -4½ with Pittsburgh. On the West Coast, many of the bookmakers were operating with a line of -2½ because of knowing they’d get Dallas money.”

So Vaccaro knew what the market was on each side of the coast and had to set the line for his book. The Cowboys were considered "America's Team" and defending Super Bowl champions and the Steelers had won back-to-back Super Bowls two years earlier.

“I opened the Steelers minus-3, got as high as 4½ and finally closed at 3½. Some of the little bet shops around town were also offering a promotional deal to create more business to their place by offering the Steelers at -3½ and Cowboys at +4½. None of us thought the game would land 4, but you know how the rest of the story goes.”

Steelers 35 Cowboys 31

“It’s never a good thing when you’re paying everyone as winners or giving their money back on a push,” said Vaccaro. “And back then we didn’t have computer systems to quickly generate an overall win-loss result. I knew the figure was going to be bad, but I had to wait and hand grade every ticket and it took over four hours until I was able to give a final answer to Michael (Royal Inn owner, Michael Gaughan, current owner of the South Point).”

“We had lines of people backed up all the way to convention center drive waiting to cash,” said Vaccaro. “It was a great baptism into bookmaking and a lesson very well learned.”

Although there aren’t many current bookmakers around who actually experienced the sting of that day, they all know the story of what happened on the fateful day known as “Black Sunday.” With a little history lesson intertwined, it’s quite understandable to see why we may never see the Patriots game drop below -3, no matter how much money is attached.

With the way the action is currently going, we could see Patriots -3 (+115) before someone finally makes the move to -2½. More than 99.9% of the action on the game is still to come, so each of the books in Las Vegas has plenty of time to make their move without getting stung too bad by getting middled or sided. But no one wants to be first. If making a guess on who might be first in Vegas, it would have to be the South Point which only uses flat (-110) numbers.

We’ll keep you updated along the way as it happens.

SBXLVI Betting Update
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The day after MGM Resorts moved the Patriots to -2.5 (-125) because of an onslaught of Giants money, South Point sports book director Bert Osborne followed suit, but gave a much meatier bone for sharp money -- if any -- to sink their teeth into by offering the Patriots at -2.5-flat.

"I had enough and I figured while it was still early enough, I'd test the waters a little and see if -2.5-flat actually had some value," said Osborne. "I think it does, but I've only had the move up for a half-hour and it’s still all Giants money."

The public doesn't seem to care what the line is on the Giants whether it's betting into a bad money-line or taking the almost meaningless +2.5. As of right now, all they know is they want the Giants on Super Bowl Sunday.

"We'll see where this takes us," said Osborne. "We're probably going to take about four times as much risk on this move, at this stage, than we would in a regular playoff game."

After over 24 hours of action, the MGM Resort properties are happy with their decision to jump out early Tuesday.

"We're pretty balanced at -2.5 (-125) right now since the move," said VP of race and sports Jay Rood.

More Las Vegas sports books may soon follow to the land below a field goal spread. No one wants to be left out without any Patriots money, if there is any to be had.

Update – Wednesday Jan. 25 (4:00 a.m. PT)

Just after I wrote about the sports books not wanting to go minus-2½, Jay Rood, VP of race and sports at MGM Resorts, had enough of all the early action on the Giants through Tuesday and tested the waters with Giants +2½ (-125).

"We we’re just getting too much money at a rapid pace on the Giants at all stages that we moved the line on from Sunday night until now," said Rood who opened the Giants +3½. "I’d rather make the move now and see what happens early on before the rush happens next week."

Most Las Vegas sports books still have the Patriots -3 (EVEN) with Lucky’s sports books showing a -3 (+105) on the Patriots. These next few days will be telling as to what we’ll see next weekend when the books will be more stubborn and set on their number.

Jay Kornegay and his staff are working feverishly to get all 350 Super Bowl props out by Thursday afternoon which will send a major rush to windows everywhere. The LVH Super Book sets the standard around town, and the world for the matter, on what the market price dictates.

Sharp players from everywhere will be in full force looking for an edge on the propositions with hopes of finding several middle opportunities with the varied prices around town.

Even though Kornegay won’t say so himself, the likely reason he is waiting longer than usual to open the props is because he and his staff seem to do all the work for everyone in town. There have been more than a few books in Las Vegas that have actually cut and pasted their logo on the Hilton sheet and used every one of their props and bet numbers to a tee, claiming it as their own.

When the props are released, we’ll have an update on some of the biggest movers as well as some of the biggest variances from what other sports books who work did their own have.

Super Bowl Super Stats
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com

Safe to say there are a myriad of statistics, angles and theories we can draw from when handicapping the Super Bowl. But the fact remains there are plenty of advantages to be found when it comes to tabbing this year's winner.

Let's take a quick look how New England and New York arrived to SB XLVI and at some of the more interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, unless noted otherwise.

Common Denominators

These two teams squared off against one another's division in 2011 and the results were, for all intents and purposes, diametrically opposite.

New England was 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS and 1-3 ITS (In The Stats) in games against the NFC East while New York hit a grand slam against the AFC East, going4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS and 3-1 ITS.

Additionally, the Patriots' opponents combined for an overall record of 141-157 (.473) this season while New York took on foes that ended up 176-139 (.559).

Advantage: Giants.

The 'R' Word

Revenge has been a factor in Super Bowl games.

New York upset New England in Foxboro as 9-point underdogs this season, despite being outgained by 77 yards in the contest, thus setting up a 'double-revenge' incentive for Tom Brady's bunch from seeing dreams of a perfect season ruined in a 17-14 loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.

Interestingly, teams playing with same season loss revenge are 7-5 SU in Super Bowls, including 3-0 the last three games.

Revenge has been a staple for the Patriots especially under the tandem of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The Dynamic Duo is 43-13 SU and 36-17-3 ATS in games when avenging a loss, including 18-3 SU and 16-4-1 ATS when playing off three or more wins in a row.

In addition, Belichick and Brady have lost five playoff games together. They are 2-0 SU during the postseason in playoff loss revenge games, defeating Denver and Baltimore this campaign

Advantage: Patriots.

Faux Favorites

The public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it's like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.

As a result the public today suffers from a bad case of diabetes. That's because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-11 SU and 13-16-2 ATS record, including 5-9-2 ATS the last 15 games.

Favorites (read: New England) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-9 SU and 7-13-2 ATS.

The last sixteen favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-14-1 ATS, an interesting stat considering that Tom Coughlin's teams have surrendered more than 28 points in only three of 15 postseason games while Bill Belichick's troops have tallied more than 28 points in just six of 24 playoff contests.

Advantage: Giants.

20/20 Vision

Speaking of scoring, putting points in the scoreboard is obviously tantamount to succeeding in this game.

Those that do, win the game and the money. Those that don't, lose the game and the money. It's just that simple.

And twenty points appears to be the cut-line.

That's because, since 1977, teams that fail to score 20 points in the Super Bowl are 1-22 SU and 3-19-1 ATS. Teams that tally 21 or more points are 30-11 SU and 27-11-3 ATS. Ironically, the only team to score fewer than 20 points and win a Super Bowl in that span was New York in its 17-14 win over New England in Super Bowl XLII.

Twenty-seven points virtually assures a victory as teams putting 27 or more on the scoreboard are 26-1 SU and 23-3-1 ATS dating back to 1977.

Advantage: Even.

Seed Me

16 top seeded teams from the AFC have made it to the title game since 1977, but only four were crowned champions – the most recent being the 2003 New England Patriots.

No. 1 seeds are 6-12-1 ATS since 1990, including 2-8 SU and ATS the last 10. In fact, the last No.1 to win a Super Bowl, playing a non-No. 1 seed, was the '99 Rams.

And going back the last 16 years, the higher-seeded team has struggled mightily against the spread in the big game, going an eye-opening 1-12-2 ATS following the Steelers failure against the Packers last year.

Advantage: Giants.

Conference Call

Like the National League's one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 20-11 SU and 19-10-2 ATS.

However, the NFC is only 5-9 SU and 7-6-1 ATS of late in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

One final note: this marks the ninth time in ten years the AFC will dress up as the favorite.

Advantage: Even.

That's an early take on this year's Super Bowl matchup. Now, take advantage of the edges, bet with your head and not over it, and good luck as always.

HEY MR Lawrence why dont you look deeper at Giants end of season most important statistical fact ! THEY were minus point at end of year !

YEAH they scored 394 but gave up 400 points ! and dont tell me about how the gainst last five games were so great when the week 15 game at home and giants were healthy on defense again as a 7 point favorite they got smoked at home by the REX Grossman redskins NOT a small losss i'm talking a two score loss another 13 point loss 23-10

Another key fact is neither of these teams were winning bets this year both at 7-8-1 ATS

Please tell me how YOU or anyone can not factor in divine intervention how this happend !

That the back up punt returner had two ooopsies in 4th qtr and in OT to get Giants the win !

Giants really did not beat the 49ers that game was given to them by a rookie punt returner !

Patriots ok a missed FG but due to HC or Kicker not calling a time out still dosent mean they win it in OT !

#2 fact the Death of woners wife is like death of family to all patriots players they ate dinner with her she loved the team and they loved her !

I truly belive this is why the giants got here but right now i dont care what the spread is because it will not factor 3 0r higher will not change my mind Brady was on a mission this year he had a snarling look in every game i saw like the rabid dog has before he attaacks you !

I will know more two days before kick off looking atevery players bio rhythm charts ! I noticed certain players were severyly hurt during the fials one so big on giants it will tilt the pendulum to patriots !

Happend during the Game @ SF thier all pro center David Bass was hurt ! Manning was on side lines with replacement center and the O line was shifted for rest of game

wow did the wheels come off fast adter that happened !

YES Gronk was hurt and is in a walking boot but Patriots ahve plaent of other weapons at thier disposal ..... Deion Branch been there done that with Patriots many times ...wes welker
Hernandez the other TE Chad Ocho was not qt game due to his dads death so now he will be playing for his dad watch him play lights out in this bowl either making blocks or helping take defenders away from other wr's !

Also 13 year VET Kevin Faulk si still with patriots RB n PR mostly returns punts but he can be used to help block or two back sets !

YES patriots defense vs the pass is at bottom of league but that was due to 1st 9 games of year after the Giants loss Bill B switched all new players in on defense and i now saw a Patriots D sack QB's and stuff the line like way better than 1st half of season !

PLUS no 9-7 team or a team with 500 or lower div record ever won a super bowl

3-3 in a weak nfc east vs 5-1 in way stronger AFC east that had to play 9 games vs teams with winning records from 2010 gianst oppsite a very soft schedule 9 games vs losing teams from last year and OMG the loss at home to seattle was wild Giants were winning by 10 points they knocked out T jackson the strater for Sehawks in comes Charlie Whitehurst and wins the game for seattle and it was an early east game for seattle !

PLUS check this out Giants barely plus yards for season at + 8.5 yards per game and a weak plus 5 in the turnovers
Patriots way differnt this like secratarit coming in at PLUS 17.8 yrads per game and Plus 17 in turnovers !

also i'm thinking of G mens injuries popping up in game on both O line and defense many guys are not even at 90% key starters i feel will be sidelined Patriots also I do not see Gronkoswki even playing or maybe very limited like maybe blocking and short screens !

PATRIOTs win this for MHK

SBXLVI Betting Update
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Update – Sunday Jan. 29 (12:30 p.m. PT)

Another Las Vegas sports book joined the small minus-2½ party Saturday when Coast Resort properties moved the Patriots to -2½ (-120). They join MGM Resorts (-2½ -125) and the South Point (-2½ -110) as the only books below -3.

Cantor Gaming sports books have been steady at Patriots -3 (-105) and the director of the books, Mike Colbert, says action has been great.

“We have almost the exact same amount of money of each side," said Colbert. “The only thing we are long on right now is the Giants money-line (+125).”

Colbert has a very fair money-line price posted compared to most of the other books which have the Patriots at -135 or -140.

After the initial rush of almost everyone having to get a piece of the Giants, it appears the action has leveled off a bit with smaller Patriots money showing up.

Update – Saturday Jan. 28 (12:30 p.m. PT)

Without any full limit wagers on the Giants at +3-flat, it still didn't take long for the South Point to find their threshold and move back to Patriots -2½ (-110). This was the South Point's second move to -2½. The first time they found out that there was large Patriots money to be had rather quickly and bounced back up to -3.

They've been at -2½ since Friday night, but haven't gotten the initial type of Patriots money they did when they first moved. Since moving to -2½, small money is still coming fast and furious on the Giants. The majority of Super Bowl bettors don't care what the line is. Rather, they just want a ticket that says Giants. This has been the case everywhere since the line first opened on Sunday.

The majority of Las Vegas Sports Books still have the Giants +3 (-120) with MGM Resorts still holding solid with the Patriots -2½ (-125).

The LVH Super Book opened their world famous Super Bowl propositions Thursday evening with the sheets flying off the rack almost as fast as they could print them. The initial action was good as well, but the majority of the betting will take place when all the other sports books open their props are reveal several middle opportunities.

Over the years, some of the best middles have occurred on yardage props where the bettor can get up a 10 to 15-yard free roll with running backs or wide receivers and a chance to win both bets by just shopping around.

Update – Thursday Jan. 26 (4:00 p.m. PT)

South Point found all the money they needed on Patriots -2½ (-110) and moved back to -3 (-110) until they regroup again Friday. What they have done is basically shown the entire city of Las Vegas that there is money to be had on the Patriots at -2½ which should go a long way to dictating where the solid spread sits next week.

Update – Thursday Jan. 26 (3:45 p.m. PT)

Minus-2½-flat could become a scarce number in Las Vegas soon. Cal-Neva sports books went from -2½ (-120) back to -3 (EV) Thursday while the only -2½-flat in the world remained at the South Point they've been finding Patriots money.

"We know that there is big money to be had with the Patriots -2½-flat (-110)," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, who runs the only book in Las Vegas that uses exclusively flat numbers.

"With the way we book (flat numbers), it's going to take a little more to get us off the number, but at least it's nice to know that there are people out there supporting the Patriots," said Osborne who has been getting an influx of Giants money throughout the week since opening the Patriots -3 ½ on Sunday.

"I'll talk with Michael (South Point owner Michael Gaughan) tomorrow and see where we want to be positioned based on all the betting action we've had. I think we have enough data through the first few days to figure out on each side of '3', what type of action we'll get the rest of the way."

Jay Rood at the MGM Resort properties remains comfortable with his -2½ (-125) line and says he's been getting good two-way action.

"We're treading water this week and haven't been pushed one way or another. Next week we'll re-evaluate everything and see where we want to be based on the money that has come in. It's very apparent the public likes the Giants."

Update – Wednesday Jan. 25 (4:00 p.m. PT)

The day after MGM Resorts moved the Patriots to -2.5 (-125) because of an onslaught of Giants money, South Point sports book director Bert Osborne followed suit, but gave a much meatier bone for sharp money -- if any -- to sink their teeth into by offering the Patriots at -2.5-flat.

"I had enough and I figured while it was still early enough, I'd test the waters a little and see if -2.5-flat actually had some value," said Osborne. "I think it does, but I've only had the move up for a half-hour and it’s still all Giants money."

The public doesn't seem to care what the line is on the Giants whether it's betting into a bad money-line or taking the almost meaningless +2.5. As of right now, all they know is they want the Giants on Super Bowl Sunday.

"We'll see where this takes us," said Osborne. "We're probably going to take about four times as much risk on this move, at this stage, than we would in a regular playoff game."

After over 24 hours of action, the MGM Resort properties are happy with their decision to jump out early Tuesday.

"We're pretty balanced at -2.5 (-125) right now since the move," said VP of race and sports Jay Rood.

More Las Vegas sports books may soon follow to the land below a field goal spread. No one wants to be left out without any Patriots money, if there is any to be had.

Update – Wednesday Jan. 25 (4:00 a.m. PT)

Just after I wrote about the sports books not wanting to go minus-2½, Jay Rood, VP of race and sports at MGM Resorts, had enough of all the early action on the Giants through Tuesday and tested the waters with Giants +2½ (-125).

"We we’re just getting too much money at a rapid pace on the Giants at all stages that we moved the line on from Sunday night until now," said Rood who opened the Giants +3½. "I’d rather make the move now and see what happens early on before the rush happens next week."

Most Las Vegas sports books still have the Patriots -3 (EVEN) with Lucky’s sports books showing a -3 (+105) on the Patriots. These next few days will be telling as to what we’ll see next weekend when the books will be more stubborn and set on their number.

Jay Kornegay and his staff are working feverishly to get all 350 Super Bowl props out by Thursday afternoon which will send a major rush to windows everywhere. The LVH Super Book sets the standard around town, and the world for the matter, on what the market price dictates.

Sharp players from everywhere will be in full force looking for an edge on the propositions with hopes of finding several middle opportunities with the varied prices around town.

Even though Kornegay won’t say so himself, the likely reason he is waiting longer than usual to open the props is because he and his staff seem to do all the work for everyone in town. There have been more than a few books in Las Vegas that have actually cut and pasted their logo on the Hilton sheet and used every one of their props and bet numbers to a tee, claiming it as their own.

When the props are released, we’ll have an update on some of the biggest movers as well as some of the biggest variances from what other sports books who work did their own have.

Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

The 2011 Super Bowl was not a good one for the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and offshore. They underestimated the groundswell of support for Green Bay and the Over. Money poured in on the favorite, driving the line up as high as -3 from a -1 opener. And money poured in on the Over; the closing total was as high as 55 at several key locations. When the Packers won 31-25, bettors cashed in on both the side and total. It was the worst Super Bowl result for the books since the infamous Super Bowl XIII, back in January 1979 when the Steelers beat the Raiders 35-31 in a game that bounced between -3.5 and -4.5 all week – a dreaded “middle” for the biggest game of the year.

The books will have a definite rooting interest in the Super Bowl again this year, because for the second consecutive season, the books underestimated the support for the hot team down the stretch. New England opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the New York Giants in many key locations, with one influential sportsbook – the Wynn – even hanging a -4 on the Patriots.

-3.5 or -4 was not the correct line, as determined by the betting markets. The books spent the first week of the two-week NFL hiatus between the championship games and the Super Bowl getting besieged with one bet on the Giants plus the points after the next. A -160/+140 moneyline split has been bet down as low as -130/+110. The -3.5’s were all gone within 24 hours of their arrival, and there has been enormous downward pressure on the line even at New England -3.

Numerous sportsbooks have dropped the line down to New England -2.5, hoping to balance their books with some Patriots money. The books that are more risk averse – not willing to risk a potentially disastrous result for the house if New England won the Super Bowl by exactly three points – have adjusted the vig on the Giants +3 so bettors have to lay -120 or -125 to support the more popular team plus the points. Talking with sportsbook directors around Vegas, it’s very clear that they expect to be rooting hard for the Patriots on Super Bowl Sunday.

In conversations with other sportsbettors over the past week, it’s easy to understand why so many wiseguys have gone to the betting window in support of Tom Coughlin’s Giants. And most of the analysis that the bettors are looking at has nothing to do with the one strong prevailing trend that supports New York this weekend – the trend of the lower seeded team dominating the Super Bowl ATS.

Over the past 15 years, the higher seeded team has covered a grand total of one Super Bowl pointspread, while the lower seeded team has covered 12, with a pair of pushes where neither side covered. That 12-1-2 ATS angle comes into play supporting the Giants this year; a No. 4 seed compared to the No. 1 Patriots. But it’s certainly not the primary reason bettors are flocking towards the G-men on Super Bowl Sunday.

Rather, bettors are pounding the Giants because they think the Giants are the better of these two teams. There’s a lot of anti-Patriots sentiment, starting with the Patriots dismal track record in big games; just 1-7 ATS in their last eight playoff games, dating back to 2006. New England faced only three teams all year that finished the season with winning records (Pittsburgh, the Giants and Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game). The Patriots went 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS in those games. Had Lee Evans been able to hang on to the football in the end zone in the final seconds against the Patriots last Sunday, that record would be 0-3 SU and ATS.

Bettors rank the Giants defense well ahead of New England’s stop unit. The Patriots defense finished near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every statistical category, including 31st out of 32 teams in both total defense and pass defense. Meanwhile, the Giants defense – riddled with injuries for a good portion of the season – is fully healthy right now. Key defensive contributors like Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Michael Boley and Kenny Phillips are all healthy and productive after missing time during the regular season.

Bettors also look at the road the Giants took to get here, ranking that well above New England’s weak schedule (only four teams in the NFL played a weaker slate than the Patriots). New York finished the regular season with the second ranked schedule. In their last dozen games, they’ve faced virtually every elite team in the league – these same Patriots along with the Eagles, Saints, Packers (twice), Cowboys (twice), Jets, Falcons and 49ers (twice).

Bettors certainly haven’t forgotten how the Giants went to Foxboro back in November and came away with the straight up win as 9-point underdogs against New England, despite playing without big play offensive weapons Ahmad Bradshaw or Hakeem Nicks. Nor have bettors forgotten their straight up playoff wins away from home against the Packers and 49ers in their last two games; two opponents that rank ahead of the Broncos-Ravens duo that the Patriots beat at home in most bettors’ power ratings.

There is no real revenge angle here to speak of; certainly not if we’re talking about the last meeting between these two teams four years ago. Of the 106 players currently on the two teams active rosters, only 22 of them suited up for Super Bowl XLII. But if you’re building a case for New England, this revenge angle certainly stands out. In the Belichick-Brady era, the Pats are 43-13 SU, 36-17-3 ATS when avenging a loss, including an 18-3 SU, 16-4-1 ATS mark when playoff off three or more wins in a row. Clearly, this team makes good adjustments and uses their extra time to prepare wisely.

Another case can be made for the Patriots with some anti-Giants arguments. New York’s secondary was not an area of strength at any point this season; a major reason why this defense was ranked 23rd in ypg allowed and 22nd in scoring this year. If the Giants pass rush doesn’t reach Tom Brady on a consistent basis, one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the history of the NFL could have a field day. Let’s not forget that Brady is coming off a subpar showing against Baltimore, and he’s a quarterback with a long history of strong bounce-back efforts.

The Super Bowl winning Giants from four years ago also had a dominant running game behind Brandon Jacobs (5.0 yards per carry) and Derrick Ward (4.8 ypc), as the duo gained more than 1,600 rushing yards for the season and carried the team in the playoffs. This year, Jacobs averaged 3.8 yards per carry and his complement, Ahmad Bradshaw, averaged only 3.9. The duo combined for only 1,130 rushing yards for the entirety of the season. There’s much more pressure on Eli Manning in this game than there was the last time these two teams met for the title.

The Giants are also getting all kinds of credit for beating Green Bay and San Francisco on the road over the last two weeks. If you watched those games closely, you know that the Packers and 49ers both beat themselves as much if not more than the Giants beat them. Green Bay allowed that Hail Mary touchdown at the end of the half, a defensive play calling mistake from Dom Capers. Aaron Rodgers and the passing game looked completely out of sync following Rodgers’ three week lay-off, with a half dozen drops, numerous missed connections with wide open receivers and four ugly turnovers. Meanwhile, the Giants were well on their way to a loss at San Francisco before a pair of key punt return fumbles led to 10 fourth quarter and OT points, allowing the G-men to sneak away with the victory.

As with any Super Bowl, there’s a case to be made for both teams. So far, at least, bettors have been making a much stronger case for the Giants, leading to one-sided action and a potentially ugly result for the sportsbooks if the G-men pull off the minor upset.

Super Bowl Props
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis kicks off Feb. 5 when New England meets the New York Giants with the Patriots looking to avenge losses to the Giants in Super Bowl XVII, and also a 24-20 defeat at Foxboro this season in a game which snapped a 20-game regular season home win streak by New England.

Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet more often this time of the year than first-timers at a gay rally.

It’s important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the oddsmaker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent ‘juice’ edge in his favor. Thus, it’s critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.

In addition, the props are designed to create more action for the books.

"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino Super Book.

Furthermore, it’s important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.

According to Kornegay, this is the only NFL game of the year where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.

Here are some “tips” on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year’s Super Bowl.

1. The Coin Toss

A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It’s fast and it takes place just prior to kick-off. It has also seen the NFC winning the pre-game coin flip each of the last 14 years in a row!

What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year’s coin flip: 50/50.

2. We’ll Take The Ball

In addition, similar props abound on which team will receive the ball first. The Giants are currently -180.

The reason being, as reported by Joe Fortenbaugh of NationalFootballPost.com is “On Sept 7, 2008, New England played the Kansas City Chiefs, won the toss and elected to receive. That was the day Tom Brady was lost for season with a torn ACL. Since that day, the Patriots have played 65 games - playoffs included - and won the coin toss 28 times. On all 28 occasions, New England elected to defer their choice to the second half and started the game by kicking off.”

3. Quarterback Action Tops Player Props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 24 times in 45 previous Super Bowl games.

Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP’s.

New England’s Tom Brady and New York’s Eli Manning lead the charge this year. In head-to-head proposition competition the Hilton favors Brady by 11 yards over Manning. You also have to lay an extra -$1.10 more on Brady than Manning in total TD passes for the contest.

4. When Tackles Are Not Tackles and Penalties Are Not Penalties

When betting on the over/under number of tackles it’s important to know that sacks are not recorded as a tackle.

In addition, propositions involving penalties are good only if the penalty is accepted.

5. Team Scoring Tendencies

Certain edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the linemakers eyes.

Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring and averages for-and-against in all games played this season for both squads. Note the Giants have played 19 games this campaign; the Patriots 18:

1Q – New York: 80-81 / 4.21-4.26
1Q – New England: 99-86 / 5.50-4.78

2Q – New York: 135-124 / 8.53–5.37
2Q – New England: 179-100 / 9.94-5.56

3Q – New York: 72-79 / 3.79-4.16
3Q – New England: 151-63 / 8.39-3.50

4Q – New York: 188-145 / 9.89-7.63
4Q – New England: 152-122/ 8.44-6.78

Notice that both teams’ defense has been its stingiest in the 3Q this season.

On the flip side, the Giants’ offense has performed at its best in the final stanza, whereas the Pats’ attack tends to rev up in the 2Q of games.

Incidentally, New England’s defense has been en fuego in the 3Q of its last 10 games, allowing just 20 points. The Patriots have also not allowed a point in any of their last three games during the final quarter.

6. Player Scoring Tendencies

The leading candidate to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVI is New England TE Rob Gronkowski, high ankle sprain and all. He led the Patriots in touchdowns with 17 this season.

Behind Gronkowski is New York WR Victor Cruz. New England’s other TE, Aaron Hernandez and RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis make up the leading four candidates.

Over the previous 45 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 18 times. Green Bay WR Jordy Nelson found the end zone first for the Packers against the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV last year.

Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.

7. Odd Props

Melding Super Bowl props with other sports is another popular prop.

One personality prop that fans are sure to be attracted to is Eli Manning completions versus LeBron James points. Manning goes up against the NFL’s 31st ranked pass defense while James and the Miami Heat will be hosting a Toronto Raptors defense that is surrendering less than 95 PPG on the season.

Meanwhile in a Beantown prop, Tom Brady’s touchdown tosses are paired against total team goals scored by the Boston Bruins in their game against the Washington Capitals.

One of our favorites, though, is who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first - with the choices being Teammates, Coach, Family, God, Owner or no one.

If you like the Pats in this game you probably like the chances of acknowledging owner Robert Kraft in memory of his recently departed wife Myra. If you like the Giants it’s likely the winner will acknowledge his teammates.

One thing is for sure. It’s a good thing Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos will be watching from the sidelines. Otherwise God would have been an odds-on favorite.

Line Moves - SBXLVI Props
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The following are the opening lines with betting movement and current numbers on the LVH Super Book Super Bowl propositions. A lot of the movement looks in line with how the majority of the public is betting the game, which is siding with the Giants which means less Tom Brady and more Eli Manning.

The largest move through the first few days has been the OVER-UNDER price on what jersey number will score the first touchdown. The number opened up at 80.5 UNDER -120 and has been bet to OVER -130, a .50 cent move. The thinking behind it all is that the first score will most likely be a touchdown pass. You get the entire main receiving corps of the Giants and Patriots with the exception of Victor Cruz and Travis Beckum. It appears to fall in line with some value when comparing another similar prop that hasn't moved.

If looking to bet whether the first touchdown of the game will be a pass to anyone, the line hasn't moved from the opener at -200 with a take back on 'any other TD' being +175.

Here are all of the propositions that have seen moves at the LVH.

MOST PENALTY YARDS
**(Declined penalties do not count)
GIANTS -110 (Bet up to -135)
PATRIOTS -110

TOTAL QB SACKS BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 4.0 -110 (Bet up to 4 OVER -120)
UNDER 4.0 -110

TOTAL NUMBER OF KICKOFF RETURNS BY: BOTH TEAMS
**(Returns only--Excludes Touchbacks, Out of Bounds & Fair Catches)
OVER 6.5 +145 (Bet up to 6.5 OVER +175/-200)
UNDER 6.5 -165

TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: ELI MANNING (NYG)
OVER 308.5 -110 (Bet up to 310.5 -110)
UNDER 308.5 -110

WHAT WILL ELI MANNING (NYG) THROW FIRST:
TD PASS -240 (Bet down to -230/+195)
INTERCEPTION +200

WILL THE GIANTS SCORE IN ALL 4 QUARTERS?
**(Overtime does not count)
YES +250 (Bet down to +225/-265)
NO -300

WILL THE GIANTS CONVERT A 4TH DOWN ATTEMPT?
**(4th Down Conversion by Penalty does not count)
YES +175 (Bet down to +165/-185)
NO -200

TOTAL SOLO & ASSISTED TACKLES BY: ANTREL ROLLE (NYG)
**(Sacks do not count, Defensive+Special teams solo+assisted tackles count)
OVER 6.0 -110 (Bet up to 6 OVER -145)
UNDER 6.0 -110

TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: TOM BRADY (NE)
OVER 319.5 -110 (Bet down to 316.5 -110)
UNDER 319.5 -110

TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY: DANNY WOODHEAD (NE)
**(If no Reception--Under is the winner)
OVER 1.5 +120 (Bet up +1.5 +135)
UNDER 1.5 -140

WILL CHAD OCHOCINCO (NE) HAVE AT LEAST 1 RECEPTION?
YES +130 (Bet down to +115)
NO -150

TOTAL FIRST DOWNS BY: PATRIOTS
OVER 24.0 EVEN (Bet up to 24,5 -110)
UNDER 24.0 -120

WILL THE PATRIOTS CONVERT A 4TH DOWN ATTEMPT?
**(4th Down Conversion by Penalty does not count)
YES +130 (Bet down to +120)
NO -150

TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: PATRIOTS
OVER 102.5 -110 (Bet down to 101.5 OVER -110)
UNDER 102.5 -110

TOTAL SOLO & ASSISTED TACKLES BY: ROB NINKOVICH (NE)
**(Sacks do not count, Defensive+Special teams solo+assisted tackles count)
OVER 5.5 EVEN (Bet down to 5.5 OVER +110)
UNDER 5.5 -120

MOST COMPLETIONS
ELI MANNING (NYG) +1.5 +105 (Bet down to +1.5 EVEN)
TOM BRADY (NE) -1.5 -125

MOST TOUCHDOWN PASSES
ELI MANNING (NYG) +0.5 -130 (Bet up to -0.5 -145)
TOM BRADY (NE) -0.5 +110

MOST GROSS PASSING YARDS
ELI MANNING (NYG) +11.5 -110 (Bet down to +10.5 -110)
TOM BRADY (NE) -11.5 -110

WHO WILL THROW AN INTERCEPTION FIRST
ELI MANNING (NYG) -160 (Bet down to -140)
TOM BRADY (NE) +140

MOST RECEIVING YARDS
VICTOR CRUZ (NYG) -6.5 +105 (Bet down to -6.5 -110)
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) +6.5 -125

MOST RECEIVING YARDS
TRAVIS BECKUM (NYG) +30.5 -110 (Bet down to +27.5 -110)
DEION BRANCH (NE) -30.5 -110

PLAYER TO GET A RECEPTION FIRST
HAKEEM NICKS (NYG) -125 (Bet up to -135)
AARON HERNANDEZ (NE) +105

PLAYER TO GET A RECEPTION FIRST
MARIO MANNINGHAM (NYG) -125 (Bet up to -135)
DEION BRANCH (NE) +105

PLAYER TO GET A RECEPTION FIRST
VICTOR CRUZ (NYG) -130 (Bet up to -145)
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) +110

MOST POINTS
GIANTS--FIRST HALF POINTS +15.5 -110 (Bet up to +15.5 -125)
PATRIOTS--FULL GAME POINTS -15.5 -110

MOST POINTS
GIANTS--FULL GAME POINTS -12.5 -110 (Bet down to -12.5 +105)
PATRIOTS--FIRST HALF POINTS +12.5 -110

JERSEY NUMBER OF PLAYER TO SCORE FIRST TOUCHDOWN IN SUPER BOWL XLVI
OVER 80.5 EVEN (Bet up to 80.5 OVER -130) .50 cent move is pretty large
UNDER 80.5 -120
**(If No Touchdown--All bets are refunded)

Cross-Sport Prop Moves
VegasInsider.com

The following are the opening lines with betting movement and current lines on the NHL, NBA and EPL vs. Super Bowl propositions from the LVH Super Book.

WHO WILL HAVE MORE PROPS:

NHL - Bruins at Capitals
ALEXANDER OVECHKIN (WAS) POINTS PK -155 (Bet down to -135)
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) TOUCHDOWNS PK +135

NHL - Flyers at Rangers
MARIAN GABORIK (NYR) SHOTS ON GOALS +0.5 +105 (Bet down to +0.5 +120)
GIANTS PUNTS -0.5 -125

NHL - Jets at Canadiens
JETS SHOTS ON GOALS -1.5 -120 (Bet up to -1.5 -140)
TOM BRADY (NE) COMPLETIONS +1.5 EVEN

NHL - Jets at Canadiens
CANADIENS GOALS PK -110 (Bet up to -125)
GIANTS+PATRIOTS TOTAL FIELD GOALS MADE PK -110

NHL - Jets at Canadiens
JETS+CANADIENS GOALS -0.5 -130 (Bet down to -0.5 -110)
ELI MANNING (NYG)+TOM BRADY (NE) TD PASSES +0.5 +110

NBA - Grizzlies at Celtics
RAY ALLEN (BOS) 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE +0.5 +130 (Bet down to +0.5 +115)
TOM BRADY (NE) TOUCHDOWN PASSES -0.5 -150

NBA - Grizzlies at Celtics
RUDY GAY (MEM) POINTS +6.5 -110 (Bet down to +6.5 +110)
GIANTS POINTS -6.5 -110

NBA - Raptors at Heat
LEBRON JAMES (MIA) FREE THROWS MADE +0.5 +120 (Bet down to +0.5 -110)
WES WELKER (NE) RECEPTIONS -0.5 -140

NBA - Raptors at Heat
CHRIS BOSH (MIA) POINTS +4.5 -110 (Bet down to +4.5 +110)
ELI MANNING (NYG) COMPLETIONS -4.5 -110

NBA - Raptors at Heat
RAPTORS/HEAT MARGIN OF VICTORY -2.5 -110 (Bet down to -2.5 EVEN)
DISTANCE OF FIRST TD PASS OF SB XLVI +2.5 -110

Barclays Premier League Soccer - Manchester United at Chelsea
MANCHESTER UNITED+CHELSEA GOALS +0.5 -110 (Bet up to +0.5 -125)
GIANTS+PATRIOTS FIELD GOALS MADE -0.5 -110

Barclays Premier League Soccer - Manchester United at Chelsea
WAYNE ROONEY (MAN UTD) GOALS PK +250 (Bet down to +230)
BRANDON JACOBS (NYG) TOUCHDOWNS PK -300

Super Bowl Quarterbacks
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

For the fifth straight year, the Super Bowl will showcase two of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL squaring off for the title. Both the Giants and Patriots rely on solid play from their signal-caller to be successful, as that will no doubt be the case again on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. We'll take a look at these Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and see which one will pick up another ring.

Tom Brady is playing in his fifth "Super Sunday" game for the Patriots, while compiling a 3-1 record through his first four Super Bowl appearances. The last time Brady played in this game came four years ago against the Giants, a 17-14 setback, sending New England to its first and only loss of the season. The Patriots failed to cash as 12½-point favorites, the third time New England lost against the spread as 'chalk' in the Super Bowl (Panthers and Eagles).

The Giants' defense held New England's offense to 274 yards in the Super Bowl XLII win, while limiting Brady to just one touchdown pass. In 19 games that season, Brady put together multiple-touchdown efforts 16 times, but his only score against the Giants came in the final three minutes of regulation to Randy Moss. On the flip side, New York received several big plays on the game-winning drive from the brother of Brady's arch-rival.

Eli Manning orchestrated the most improbable play in Super Bowl history with his escape from a sack, followed by a 32-yard completion to David Tyree. That magical throw led to the winning connection to Plaxico Burress in the final minute of play, capping off a Super Bowl title as a Wild Card team. The second time around will be a challenge, but Manning can become the 11th quarterback to win multiple Super Bowl championships.

Manning attempted a season-high 58 passes in the NFC Championship triumph at San Francisco two weeks ago, 20-17 as short road underdogs. The Giants' quarterback threw two touchdown passes in the win, the fourth straight game that Manning has put together multiple scores (11 TD's in this stretch). The most recent time Manning faced the Patriots in November, he led them on another comeback in the last minute, but this time around it came in Brady's backyard.

The Giants and Patriots played a scoreless first half in Week 9 at Gillette Stadium, but the two teams erupted for a combined 44 points in the second half. The lead changed hands three times in the final three minutes, as the Giants came out on top, 24-20 as nine-point 'dogs. Manning threw for 250 yards, while hitting Jake Ballard for a one-yard strike with 15 seconds left in the game to give New York a 6-2 start to the season. Brady racked up 342 yards and two touchdowns, but also threw a pair of interceptions in the loss.

Several of VegasInsider.com's top handicappers weighed in on which quarterback they depend on heading into Sunday. Micah Roberts said, "I think both Manning and Brady will have good days, but I'd lean to Brady having less errors. Even though we want to focus more on current form with Manning, it's hard to not forget the Eli that got mired in a four-game losing streak."

Marc Lawrence believes that both these former Super Bowl MVP's have their work cut out for them, "Statistically I like Manning's chances against the league 31st-ranked secondary, although Brady enters off a season-worst effort and is more likely to return to the norm rather than further regress."

Pat Hawkins is buying into Big Blue's chances on Sunday, "My gut feeling tells me that Eli should have the advantage in this matchup, going against a statistically weak Patriots defense. He should continue to ride the hot hand and hit his wide receiver targets all day. I’m sure the Patriots' coaching staff will have some surprise for Manning, knowing that giving him more than 2-3 seconds to find a receiver will not work."

From a props perspective, Manning is listed at 310½ passing yards, while Brady's passing yards is set at 316½, according to the LV Hotel & Casino Sportsbook. Brady surpassed the 317-yard mark 11 times, including four of the last six games. Manning eclipsed the 311-yard barrier in 10 games, while throwing for at least 316 yards in the playoff wins over the Packers and 49ers.

In the touchdown department for props, Brady's number is set at 1½, as you would need to bet $3.30 to win $1.00 on the 'over.' On the flip side, money can be made on the 'under' of this bet with a $1.00 risk to win $2.70. For Manning, the odds are steep on the 'over' bet of 1½ touchdown passes (Bet $2.10 to win $1.00), while an 'under' play wins $1.80 on a $1.00 wager.

Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview: High scoring affair on the horizon
By Fairway Jay
Sportsmemo.com

I’m not in agreement with the recent downward move on the Super Bowl total; now at 54 and even 53 at Pinnacle. While many are pointing out that seven of the last eight Super Bowls lined at 46.5 points or higher have gone under the total, I note that the last three Super Bowls all had at least 47 points scored including last year’s 31-25 Green Bay win over Pittsburgh (a side winner for us). The Saints beat the Colts in 2009 as a touchdown underdog, 31-17 (a side winner for us), but the game finished under the posted total of 56.5 points.

Like that contest, Super Bowl XLVI has two top quarterbacks that are supremely skilled, polished, poised and precise in their passing and play. Going against suspect secondaries on both sides in perfect conditions should result in plenty of big plays in the passing game. The linesmaker is also projecting big passing days by both Eli Manning and Tom Brady, with over/under passing yards posted at 312 and 323 respectively. Both teams will spread the field with their talented receivers and take advantage of two poor pass defenses. Each quarterback is also very comfortable and efficient operating the no-huddle offense. New England ranked 31st in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 294 ypg and an AFC-worst 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The Giants were not much better, allowing 255 passing ypg and 7.5 yards per pass attempt – although they faced the league’s toughest second-half schedule and have been much better during their run to the Super Bowl. New England’s bend but don’t break defense was among the best in the league in defensive yards per point (19.0), but note that the Patriots did not face many quality quarterbacks throughout the season.

The Patriots have won 10-straight games and scored at least 31 points in eight of those contests. Also note though that they beat just one team with a winning record this season, and that was their last game against the Baltimore Ravens in which the Patriots were outgained and escaped with a 23-20 win despite a -2 turnover margin. The Patriots had a +14 TO margin during the regular season; among the league’s best. New York enters on a 5-0 SU/ATS run and have played by far the toughest schedule down the stretch. Eli Manning is now 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs during his career.

Recall that in the Giants 24-20 win at New England in November, WR Hakeem Nicks, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, fullback Henry Hynosky or center David Bass did not play. So the Giants offense should be even stronger, and note that Eli Manning (39) and Tom Brady (49) combined for nearly 90 pass attempts in the regular season meeting and Manning was not sacked.

Now on the fast track indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, the possibility is real that we may see the highest-scoring Super Bowl since the Patriots 32-29 win over the Carolina in 2003 or even Tampa’s 48-21 blowout of Oakland in 2002. I expect this game to live up to the offensive billing and prove to be both entertaining for fans that prefer offense, and profitable for over the total bettors. Basic strategy is to look at under wagers in RB and WR player props, but this year’s Super Bowl could prove plenty profitable for points and props over the total.

So who's going to win the Super Bowl?
Bryan Leonard
Playbook.com

So who's going to win the Super Bowl? Better yet, who's going to cover? There are a lot of factors to examine carefully when trying to determine who has the edge. One of the simplest to examine, and very revealing, is defense. Defense wins championships, of course, and when we look at the defensive merits of the Giants and Patriots, it's a mixed bag.

Both ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed with the Giants 25th and the Pats were second worst in yards allowed. On the other hand, both defenses have been strong down the stretch. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games, and the Under is 8-2 in the Giants last 10 playoff games. The Patriots are 12-6 over the total, including a 7-1 run over in the playoffs.

In an attempt to look forward towards Sunday's big game, let's take a look backward. Backward at defense, that is. A year ago the Steelers and Packers were both ranked are in the Top 10 in total defense.

Two years ago was a bit of an oddity, as both the Colts and Saints were dynamite offensively but had poor overall defensive stats. That's not the norm. Eight years ago the Patriots were 7th in total defense and the Carolina Panthers were 8th. In addition, run defense is a bit more important statistically than pass defense, because it's essential to be able to stop the run first. If the opposition can run successfully, especially on third down and short situations, there is less of a need to pass. Also, a successful running attack makes the passing game much more effective, with play-actions drawing the safeties forward and defenses having to bring more linebackers and defensive backs closer to the line of scrimmage. This can create mismatches and single coverage downfield, which is why offensive coordinators love balanced offenses. In that Super Bowl, the Patriots were 3rd against the run, the Panthers 11th. The Patriots won 32-29.

Nine years ago, the Raiders had the No. 1 offense in the NFL but the 'D' was 11th overall and a poor 23rd against the run. Tampa Bay was No. 1 in total defense and No. 6 against the run. The result? A huge win for the defense, as the underdog Bucs trashed the Raiders 48-21. Chalk up a big "W" for defense!

Nine years ago the Patriots were 24th in total 'D' and 18th against the run. The 14-point favorite Rams were No. 2 in total 'D' and 3rd against the run. That partly explains why the Patriots 20-17 upset win was one of the biggest surprises in Super Bowl history. Although there's no denying that the Pats were better defensively than the stats might suggest with Bill Belichick in charge. The Pats 'D' had also played exceptionally well the final ten games of that season. And in 2008 the defense of the Giants knocked off the No. 1 offense, 17-14, as a +12 Super Bowl dog over the Pats.

11 years ago the Ravens were No. 2 in total defense and No. 1 against the rush. The Giants were No. 5 in total 'D' and No. 2 against the rush. Chalk another one up for defense as the Ravens dominated in a 34-7 rout.

12 years ago the Rams had an explosive offense behind MVP Kurt Warner, No. 1 in total offense. But don't forget that St. Louis team was also No. 6 in total defense and No. 1 against the run! Their opponent, Tennessee, was 17th in total 'D' and 10th against the run. Chalk about another win for the better Super Bowl defense in the Rams' 23-16 victory.

Want to go back further? The Denver Broncos won back to back Super Bowl titles behind QB John Elway and an explosive offense. But lost in the shuffle of the strong offense was that Denver's defense ranked 5th and 11th in those years, when they beat Atlanta and Green Bay. The Falcons had a slightly better overall defense (8th) but Denver was statistically better than the 1997 Packers, who were a poor 20th against the run. Green Bay was a big favorite in that Super Bowl, but Terrell Davis exploited that weak run 'D' in Denver's victory as a big dog.

So, yes, defense is more important to have than offense on Super Sunday. And this season? The Patriots are 31st in total defense, the Giants Steelers No. 29 against the pass, with the No. 19 run defense, 121 yards rushing per game. A year ago the Steelers and Packers were ranked No. 1 and 2 in the NFL in points allowed, but this season the Pats and Giants are 17th and 25th in points allowed. An aberration? Or is this a year we see a 38-34 shootout?

Super Bowl XLVI
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Four years after the Giants ruined the Patriots’ perfect season and pulled a stunning upset in Super Bowl XLII, these storied organizations are poised to meet again for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Most betting shops opened New England (15-3 straight up, 10-8 against the spread) as a 3½-point favorite with a total of 56. The number didn’t stay at 3½ for long, as most books had the number adjusted to three by Monday morning (Jan. 23). The total has slowly, yet steadily, been reduced as well.

As of Friday afternoon, most spots had the Patriots favored by three at even-money. This means that gamblers taking the Giants have to pay double juice (minus-120 price). The total was all the way down to 54.

The G-Men are plus-125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125 on the Giants to win outright).

The most difficult aspect of handicapping the side for this Super Bowl is the uncertain status of New England Pro-Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski, who suffered a high ankle sprain during his team's 23-20 win over Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game.

There really hasn't been much doubt about whether or not Gronkowski will play. The question is how effective he’ll be and for how long. He’ll undoubtedly take a pain-killing injection before the game, which creates even more complexities for bettors to consider.

Will the long halftime make Gronkowski less effective in the second half when the medication begins to wear off? Does that possibility make it a wiser move to simply make a first-half bet on the Patriots? Do you avoid the side until intermission and make a second-half wager when you have a better idea of the impact Gronkowski will or will not have on the game?

Like Green Bay last season, New York (12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) has caught fire at the right time. After a Dec. 18 home loss to a mediocre Washington squad, the Giants’ playoff hopes looked bleak and Tom Coughlin’s job security was called into question (yet again). Since then, however, they have won five in a row.

The G-Men’s march through the postseason began with a 24-2 drubbing of Atlanta in the Meadowlands. Next, New York went to Lambeau Field and dismantled the 15-1 Packers by a 37-20 count as a 7½-point road underdog.

In the NFC Championship Game, the Giants’ special teams were the difference in a 20-17 overtime win at San Francisco as two-point underdogs. Despite poor weather conditions, Eli Manning completed 32-of-58 passes for 316 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.

In the extra session, New York had to punt after its opening drive stalled. On the punt return, San Francisco’s Kyle Williams coughed up the ball and the Giants recovered at the 24. Moments later, Lawrence Tynes was true from 31 yards out for his second career game-winning field goal to send the Giants to the Super Bowl.

When these teams met in Foxboro back on Nov. 6, Manning threw a one-yard touchdown pass to tight end Jake Ballard with 19 second remaining to lift the Giants to a 24-20 win as nine-point underdogs. Manning finished with 250 passing yards and a pair of TDs without being picked off.

Brandon Jacobs rushed 12 times for 72 yards and one TD, getting the bulk of the carries with Amhad Bradshaw sidelined with an injury at the time. Victor Cruz had six receptions for 91 yards and drew a pass-interference penalty to set up the game-winning score.

In the losing effort, Brady threw for 342 yards and two TDs, but he was intercepted twice and also lost a fumble. Wes Welker had nine receptions for 136 yards, while Gronkowski had eight catches for 101 yards and one TD.

New York has been an underdog nine times this year, compiling a 7-2 spread record with six outright victories. Meanwhile, New England owns a 6-7 spread record in 13 games as a single-digit favorite.

The ‘over’ has been a money maker for New England this year, cashing at a 12-6 overall clip. The ‘over’ has hit in seven of its last eight games. When the Patriots have had totals in the 50s, the ‘over’ has gone 6-5.

Totals have been an overall wash for the Giants (9-9), but the ‘under’ is 5-1 in their last six games. When they have had totals in the 50, the ‘over’ has gone 4-1.

Kick-off is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

New England has won eight consecutive games and hasn’t tasted defeat since the aforementioned loss to the Giants on Nov. 6. The Pats are 5-3 ATS during this stretch.

There are hundreds of proposition bets available at every betting shop in Nevada and offshore. I suggest that gamblers only use a small portion of their Super Bowl bankroll on these and make one pick (over, under, Pats or Giants) that will make you a winner for the day even if you strike out on all of your props. In other words, just throw out small change on a handful of props for giggles. On that note, I think you take a shot at a big payout by wagering on who will score the first touchdown. Two recommendations: Victor Cruz and/or Aaron Hernandez at 8/1 odds.

If you like one side or the other in a big way, there are adjusted lines that will get you paid in a big way. For instance, you can take the G-Men at Sportsbook.com laying 14 ½ points for an 8/1 return. Remember, they just won by 17 at Green Bay. On the flip side, you can take the Pats at minus 17 ½ for a plus-650 payout (risk $100 to win $650).

According to Sportsbook.com Senior Oddsmaker Mike Perry, the Patriots have played 65 times since Tom Brady tore his ACL against Kansas City on Sept. 7 of 2008. They have won the coin flip 28 times in those 65 games. In each of those 28 instances, Bill Belichick has elected to defer their choice of getting the ball to the second half. And that’s why the Giants are minus-180 favorites to receive the opening kick (the Pats are +150).

Tom Brady is the plus-125 ‘chalk’ to win Super Bowl MVP honors. Eli Manning has the second-shortest odds at plus-175 (risk $100 to win $175).

Here’s a cross-sport prop I like: Tom Brady’s completions at a minus-115 price vs. Draymond Green’s total points and rebounds. I like Brady in this situation for several reasons. I think he’ll have around 25-30 completions (he had 28 in the regular-season encounter), perhaps even more. Green, a star power forward for Michigan State, averages 14.9 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. That comes out to 25.1, but we have reasons to believe he won’t hit his averages in this weekend’s game against arch-rival Michigan. For starters, Green sustained a sprained knee earlier this week in a loss at Illinois. Although he’s expected to play, his minutes might be reduced and it’s fair to suspect that he won’t be at 100 percent. In addition, Green will be facing one of the nation’s premier post defenders in Jordan Morgan, who played a huge role in limiting Green to just seven points (and 11 boards) when these teams played in Ann Arbor a few weeks ago.

Sportsbook.com has already posted NFL futures for next year. Green Bay is the 5/1 ‘chalk’ and the Saints have the second-shortest odds at 6/1. The Pats and Giants are at 7/1 and 20/1, respectively.