Super Bowl Trends
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The most wagered-on event during the year comes on Sunday with Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis. Everyone comes out of the woodwork from novice bettors to professionals for this contest, the final football game until early September. Looking back through Super Bowl history, there are several key things to remember before placing bets for Sunday's showdown.
From a totals perspective, the 'under' has cashed in five of the previous seven Super Bowls, even though last year's game finished 'over' the total between the Packers and Steelers. However, with the total set at 54 for the Giants and Patriots, the 'under' has hit more often than not in Super Bowls listed at 50 or above in the totals department. Since 1990, five of seven games that closed with a total of more than 50 cashed the 'under,' including Super Bowl XLII between New York and New England (55 total, 17-14 final).
Picking the winner and not worrying about the points has helped bettors in the last 11 Super Bowls, with the victorious team covering the spread eight times in this stretch. The only two clubs to win the game and not cash were the Patriots (vs. Panthers and Eagles) and Steelers (vs. Cardinals) since 2001. For the exception of the upset of St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXVI, New England is 1-4 ATS in its five Super Bowl appearances in franchise history.
Even though the game has changed since the first Super Bowl in 1967, one number has stayed consistent regarding AFC East teams against the spread. Since the merger in 1970, AFC East clubs own a dreadful 4-11-1 ATS mark in Super Bowls, while the Patriots are the only team to cover in the last 37 years (Colts in '71, Dolphins in '73 and '74).
The short line doesn't necessarily mean a close game, as seven of the last nine Super Bowls (since 1975) with a closing line between 2 and 3½ have resulted in a double-digit victory by the winner. The only two exceptions came in XIII (Steelers 35-31 over the Cowboys) and XLV (Packers 31-26 over the Steelers), while the average margin of victory is 16.6 points per game in these nine instances.
Favorites have cashed in 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls, while the favorite/'over' combination has come in 10 times since 1990. The least frequent combination in this span is the underdog/'over' combo, which only hit in XXXII (Packers over the Broncos) and XXXVII (Buccaneers over the Raiders).
Super Bowl Stories
We've all been there with great calls on Super Sunday, while other games fell apart before the crazy halftime show. Several handicappers from VegasInsider.com provided us some anecdotes about highlights and lowlights regarding the Super Bowl.
Micah Roberts saw his best and worst moments with the Denver Broncos, starting with Super Bowl XXIV in 1989. "The Broncos finally had a running game with an All-Pro running-back in Bobby Humphrey. I thought this would finally be their chance to get John Elway a win after two Super Bowl defeats. I was only 19 at the time and going to college, but I put up almost everything I had on Denver plus all the points (+12) and then watched in misery as the on-slaught ensued with the 49ers winning 55-10. At least it was apparent early on that I had no chance of winning and got to deal with reality quicker."
However, Roberts picked up his revenge with the Broncos as a huge underdog nine years later against the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII. "My bankroll was much larger then and I played every prop that went along with my scenario of how to beat the Packers. I waited in line to bet a large amount on the opening money-line downtown, didn't even take the points even though it was double-digits. Knowing the only way I could win my bets was by Denver running the ball right down the Packers throats, I played everything I could find on Terrell Davis 'over' and almost everything on Elway 'under' and it worked out to perfection. It still remains my largest overall Super Bowl win. I don't think I lost a single prop bet that day."
Marc Lawrence also went the underdog route in his biggest Super Bowl triumph, "Best advice is using teams playing at a peak level, especially as an underdog. My best Super Bowl win was Giants (+12) over Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. The Pats were undefeated and under enormous pressure to complete a perfect season. They were also showing signs of cracking, riding a 5-game ATS losing skid heading into the game."
From my perspective, the most satisfying Super Bowl win came two years ago when the Saints (+5) picked up their first title as outright 'dogs against the Colts. New Orleans never folded after falling behind early, while the famous call from Sean Payton to pull off the onside kick to start the second half turned all the momentum.
SBXLVI Betting Update
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Update – Saturday Feb. 4 (2:30 a.m. PT)
While several Las Vegas sports books have remained content with their Patriots -3 (EV) number for the long haul, Johnny Avello felt the need to maneuver some more after already making the move to Patriots -2½ two days ago. On Saturday morning, Wynn Las Vegas dropped the line to it’s lowest point yet at Patriots -2.
“It’s a business decision based on where we need to be with everything that has occurred the last two days and also anticipating action over the next two days,” said Avello who initially opened the Patriots -4. “This is where we need to be.”
The other sports books around town have been reporting more two-way action now compared to what the first seven days did where it was all Giants money.
Lucky’s sports books made the move below -3 on Friday when they dropped the Patriots to -2½ (-115) while major books like Station Casinos and The LVH Super Book have remained steady at -3 (EV). Coast Resorts recently went back to Patriots -3 (EV) after playing around for a few days at -2½ with money attached.
South Point sports director Bert Osborne has held steady with the Patriots to -2½ (-110) which was the best line out there until the Wynn joined him a few days ago, buy says he's closer to going back to -3 than going down further.
"This last move to -2½ has been pretty steady for us with a little more volume on the Patriots," said Osborne.
Even though Avello can’t say so himself, the reasoning likely behind their move to -2 is because of large house players, or maybe one or two particular whales. In most cases, these type of bettors that wager $500,000 to $1 million don’t care what the line is and are given anything they want as far as limits go. Between the Wynn and Encore, you can believe that there are quite a few whales lodged there for the Super Bowl weekend, one of busiest of the year.
Again, this is all hypothetical, but Avello would then be in the position to best balance out his book. There’s no better way to do that than offer the best line in the world on the other side, which also includes his money line sitting at -130. My best guess is that one of those whales arrived on Friday night and laid a ton of cash on the Giants at +2½ putting Avello in a spot where he needs any, and all the Patriots money he can find and the best way to get it is have the best line.
Coaching and X-Factors
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The talk throughout the week regarding Super Bowl XLVI between the Giants and Patriots has revolved around several storylines. The first headline is the status of New England tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is a gametime decision with an ankle injury. Another storyline involves the rematch of Super Bowl XLII in which the Giants upended the previously unbeaten Patriots. But one of the overlooked matchups on Sunday is the one between the two generals on the sidelines.
Bill Belichick is coaching in his fifth Super Bowl, while going for his first championship since 2004. One of the key numbers heading into Sunday is a 9-0 SU/ATS record since 2001 when the Patriots are playing with same-season revenge. The Giants rallied to knock off the Patriots, 24-20 in Week 9 as nine-point underdogs. In the only instance of same-season revenge in 2011, New England came back to drill Buffalo in Week 17 with a 49-21 trouncing of the Bills.
For all the criticism he has heard over the years, Tom Coughlin is looking for his second Vince Lombardi trophy as head coach of the Giants. New York has put together five winning campaigns in the last seven seasons, while going 7-2 ATS this season in the underdog role. The Giants own a 3-5 ATS mark since 2010 in the second meeting of the season, as New York picked up victories in this scenario against Green Bay and San Francisco in the playoffs.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Micah Roberts feels the advantage goes to the Patriots' head man, "I like Belichick in big games when he has time to prepare. When I look back at his loss to the Giants four years ago, you have to account for the weight of the undefeated season which was a bear to carry. And it still took some miracle occurrences for the Giants to win that game."
On the flip side, Marc Lawrence has provided numbers to support the Giants' leader, "Most like Belichick over Coughlin, but the fact is Belichick is only 2-6-1 ATS with rest during the postseason, including 0-5 ATS against an opponent off back-to-back wins. In addition, Belichick is 3-1 SU in Super Bowl games, with all four games decided by exactly three points. Meanwhile, Coughlin is 8-3 ATS as playoff dog."
From an X-factor perspective, there are several names of players to keep an eye on that can make a difference. A forgotten man in the New England attack is Chad Ochocinco, who caught just 15 passes for 276 yards, as the ex-Bengals' standout is playing in his first Super Bowl. Fellow veteran and former Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch contributed 702 yards on 51 receptions, including a touchdown catch in the divisional playoff win over the Broncos.
Gronkowski is the most valuable tight end on the field, but the Giants will counter with Jake Ballard, who scored the game-winning touchdown in Foxborough in Week 9. Ballard missed the final two games of the regular season, but had a four-game stretch in October/November in which he amassed at least 50 yards receiving.
Roberts has his eye on New England's second tight end to be a difference-maker, "I think the X-factor in this game will be Aaron Hernandez, and not just because of Gronkowski being gimpy. Hernandez is a unique player that is hard to defend and I see Brady using him quite often. I would go 'over' on just about everything with Hernandez, including scoring a touchdown at +115."
Patriots' kicker Stephen Gostkowski finished tied for ninth in the regular season with 28 made field goals, while converting the third most-extra points with 59. The Giants didn't kick many field goals, as Lawrence Tynes made 19, which was tied for 28th in the league. However, the last time Tynes kicked a game-winning field goal in the NFC Title game, the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Preview
Giants are a #4 seed in NFC who scored in last minute to win their last two meetings with New England, so they will be confident underdogs Sunday night; they were +2 in turnovers in Week 9 meeting this year, and also got three first downs via penalty; Patriots outgained them 438-361. In my opinion, too many people are talking the Giants up and dismissing New England despite Patriots being the better team during the regular season.
We talked two weeks ago about how #4 seeds are worst of the division winners in a conference and how well #4 seeds did in conference title games; they do less well in Super Bowls, going 2-3 over last 19 years, though their last two losses were Titans in ‘99/Cardinals in ’08, two very close calls- they’re 3-2 vs spread in Super Bowls. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight Super Bowls, 3-1 in last four. Average total in last three Super Bowls is 51.3. Game is indoors, so weather is no issue.
I think there is value with the Patriots here; they were 9.5-point favorites first time teams met, with game in Foxboro. Giants were a 7-7 team that got hot at right time, but they’ve talked a little bit too much for me this week. Think New England will dedicate this game to the late Mrs Kraft and get their cheater coach his fpurth Super Bowl title. Patriots, 31-20.
SBXLVI Betting Update
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Super Bowl XLVI is in the books, with the Giants rallying past the Patriots for a 21-17 victory. While gamblers who backed New York were happy, the individuals behind the betting counter weren’t in the same mood yet they weren’t upset either.
At the end of the day the Las Vegas sports books scored a small win on Super Bowl XLVI and most believe the expected overall handle to top last year’s numbers.
“We maneuvered the entire day, just like we did the last two weeks and in the end, we came out a small winner,” said Bert Osborne of South Point.
The Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) also produced a profit on the finale as well. Executive Directory Jay Kornegay explained, “Having the safety occur allowed some bettors to cash 100/1 tickets as the first score, which wasn’t good. But we came out ahead.”
Jay Rood of the MGM Resort was content as well. “We didn’t get hurt with future numbers and the results would’ve been better if the Patriots won the game but it wasn’t bad with New York coming out on top either.”
Cantor Gaming’s Mike Colbert confirmed a small win for his properties as well.
Prop Notes:
Coin Toss was Heads (-110)
Kelly Clarkson’s official time of the Star Spangled Banner was 1:33:81. Why do we mention that? The ‘over/under’ at a few offshore shops was 1:34:00.
The biggest prop move of the Super Bowl was on “Who will run the first offensive play?” The Giants started at minus-120 but after people found out the Patriots have deferred 27 straight times, the money came in and the odds went to -240. Sure enough, New England won the toss and deferred.
The first score of the game was a safety, which cashed anywhere from +160 to +170 at most sports books. If you thought there would be safety, you could’ve cashed odds as high as 8/1 (Bet $100 to win $800).
Giants’ wide receiver Victor Cruz heard his name mentioned at the betting counters this weekend and he came through with the first touchdown. His odds on this prop were as high as 8/1.
Quarterbacks are always the favorites to win the Most Valuable Player and Eli Manning kept that trend going this postseason. His odds to claim the hardware were as high as 5/2 at a few offshore outfits.