SEATTLE (15 - 3) vs. DENVER (15 - 3) - 2/2/2014, 6:30 PM
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Top Trends for this game.GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
SEATTLE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
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Head-to-Head Series HistoryGO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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SEATTLE vs. DENVERGO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
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Seattle at DenverGO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Seattle: 6-17 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Denver: 18-5 ATS after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game
Broncos/Seahawks Primer
VegasInsider.com
Denver Broncos (15-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (15-3)
The Seahawks opened as one-point favorites at most outlets, while the total opened between 47 ½ and 48. However, the game is listed at a pick-em at several spots after money moved on Denver, while the Broncos are now a one-point favorite.
Super Bowl History:
Broncos are playing in their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history and their first since 1998. Denver lost its first four Super Bowl appearances, while winning its last two in Super Bowl XXXI and XXXII.
Seahawks are participating in their second Super Bowl ever, with the first appearance coming in Super Bowl XL against the Steelers. Seattle fell to Pittsburgh, 21-10, while failing to cover as four-point underdogs.
Path to the Super Bowl:
Broncos beat the Chargers, 24-17 as eight-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
Broncos knocked off the Patriots, 26-16 as 4 ½-point favorites in the Conference Championship
Seahawks held off the Saints, 23-15 as nine-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
Seahawks rallied past the 49ers, 23-17 as four-point favorites in the Conference Championship
ATS Records:
Denver: 11-6-1
Seattle: 12-6
Over/Under Records:
Denver: 11-7
Seattle: 6-12
Recent Super Bowl History:
Underdogs have covered five of the past six Super Bowls, including outright victories the last two seasons by the Ravens and Giants. Since 2002, underdogs have compiled a 9-3 ATS and 6-6 SU record, while the 'over' is 3-3 the last six Super Bowls.
Super Bowl Breakdown
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
We are finally left with just two teams, the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks, left standing in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy. Today at VegasInsider.com, we're breaking down the biggest game of the season with some great trends to remember for the Super Bowl.
Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
Line: Denver -2.5 (48)
We have already seen this line move up 2.5-points, as it opened at a pick 'em and immediately moved to Denver by 2.5. These two teams haven't played against each other in nearly four full years, though you can bet with the game on the schedule next season between these two, it will be one of the most highly anticipated games of the regular season.
The Broncos might feel like the superior team, but they clearly had the inferior road to get into the Super Bowl. They probably didn't beat a single truly good team along the way, as they might have been the only good club in the entire AFC this year. Clearly, the New England Patriots and the San Diego Chargers didn't provide all that much of a challenge in the second season, though this seems to be a much greater test.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, came out of the better of the two conferences and the best division within that conference for good measure. They beat the San Francisco 49ers in a gritty NFC Championship Game to get here and took down the New Orleans Saints in a game that was always under control but never quite settled until the final gun.
QB Peyton Manning is going to have all eyes on him in this one, knowing that he is one of the biggest names the sport has to offer. He threw for 400 yards in the conference title game, the most in a Super Bowl semifinal by a quarterback in league history. Manning though, is only 1-1 SU and ATS in his two trips to the Super Bowl in the past, beating the Chicago Bears and losing to the New Orleans Saints.
The question we have is whether or not these Seahawks, who have virtually no Super Bowl experience, can live up to the biggest game of the year. They certainly don't have a lack of confidence, but they do have a lack of trends on their side in this one.
Sure, Seattle is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with winning records, but Denver has covered eight of its last 11 games overall. The Seahawks have covered the closing number in six of their L/10 playoff tussles, while the Broncos have been a money burner in the second season having beaten the oddsmakers just three of the L/10 times.
Keep an eye on the 'under' in this one. Not only have all four of these playoff games between these two teams failed to reach the 'total', but Seattle has played seven straight games 'under' the number. The Broncos have gone 'over' in 13 of their last 16 games played on field turf, but they have played five of their last seven to the 'under'.
The 'over' though, is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this series, though that dates all the way back to when these two teams shared the AFC West with one another.
SBXLVIII Outlook
By Sportsbook.ag
Super Bowl XLVIII - Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3)
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 2 - 6:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Denver -2.5, Total: 47.5
The top two seeds in the NFL meet up for Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, as the Seahawks seek their first-ever championship against a Broncos team that last won the title in the 1998 season.
Both teams have identical 15-3 SU records (including 6-2 on the road) heading into the final game of the season, with Seattle going 12-6 ATS and Denver going 11-6-1 ATS. But the makeup of the two clubs is entirely different, as the Seahawks own the league's best defense (14.6 PPG, 283 YPG allowed) while the Broncos have the NFL's top offense with 36.4 PPG and 455 total YPG.
The field conditions appear to favor Seattle, as the club is 10-1 SU (7-4 ATS) on turf this season and its run-oriented offense is more conducive to what is forecast to be the coldest Super Bowl in NFL history with a significant amount of wind. Although Denver has scored a lofty 41.0 PPG on 448 total YPG in its three turf games this season (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), the weather is less than ideal for its pass-happy offense.
Both quarterbacks have had excellent seasons, with Seahawks QB Russell Wilson throwing for 3,357 yards (8.2 YPA), 26 TD and 9 INT, and Broncos QB Peyton Manning is coming off the best regular season in NFL history with 5,477 passing yards (8.3 YPA), 55 TD and 10 INT.
These teams used to be in the same division, with Denver holding a 17-6 SU (12-10-1 ATS) advantage in this series since 1992. But they have met just twice over the past decade with Seattle winning 23-20 in 2006, but losing 31-14 in the most recent meeting in 2010 when Kyle Orton outplayed Matt Hasselbeck in the matchup of starting quarterbacks.
Both clubs have loads of favorable betting trends, highlighted by the Seahawks' 10-0 ATS mark in the second half of the season under head coach Pete Carroll versus teams that allow 24+ PPG, winning by an average of 32.0 PPG to 12.0 PPG in this situation.
But the Broncos have thrived with at least two weeks of rest since 1992, going 15-2 ATS and outscoring these opponents by nearly double-digits (29.4 PPG to 19.6 PPG). With the two weeks in between games, both teams will have time to get healthy.
Seattle expects to have both WRs Percy Harvin (head) and Doug Baldwin (hip) on the field, while Denver lists both RB Knowshon Moreno (ribs) and DB Tony Carter (concussion) as probable.
The Seahawks offense is built around a power running game that averages 138 YPG on 4.3 YPC this season. RB Marshawn Lynch is the engine for this elite ground game, piling up 1,506 yards on 351 carries (4.3 YPC) with 15 TD this season, which includes 249 yards on 50 carries (5.0 YPC) and three scores in the playoffs. In two career meetings with Denver when he was with Buffalo, Lynch ran for 133 yards on 30 carries (4.1 YPC) and 2 TD.
The Seattle ground game is also helped out greatly by QB Russell Wilson, who has galloped for 555 yards on 104 carries (5.3 YPC), although he has gained just 16 yards on 13 carries during his team's three-game win streak.
But the Seahawks are capable of throwing the football too, with Wilson completing 63% of his passes for 204 YPG. Wilson hasn't had the services of WR Percy Harvin for nearly the entire season, as he touched the ball just twice during the regular season, but Harvin was a big part of the offense in the team's first playoff win versus New Orleans when he caught three passes for 21 yards in the first half of that game before sustaining a head injury.
Even if Harvin isn't a big part of the team's offense, Wilson has been just fine without him in his playoff career, going 3-1 and completing 61% of his passes for 890 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 TD and just one interception. WRs Golden Tate (942 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Doug Baldwin (914 rec. yards, 5 TD) are his most frequently used receivers, while TE Zach Miller (423 rec. yards, 5 TD) also plays an important role in the passing offense.
The Seahawks have not been great on third downs this season at 37%, and this rate has dropped to 28% over the past five games. But the club has done an excellent job of protecting the football recently, turning the ball over just five times in the past nine games combined.
The Under has occurred seven straight times in Seattle games thanks to a defense that has allowed just 12.0 PPG and 267 total YPG during this seven-game stretch. For the season, the Seahawks have been stingy in stuffing the run (105 YPG on 4.0 YPC) and have been even more proficient in stopping the pass (178 YPG on 5.4 YPA and 58.7% completions). Putting pressure on Peyton Manning will be a key to the team's chances of winning this matchup. Although Seattle has 47 sacks this season, the club has recorded two sacks or less in eight of its past nine games. But the Seahawks have also done an excellent job of forcing mistakes with an impressive 43 takeaways on the season, including 15 over the past five games.
Denver's offense has put up points in bunches all season, scoring at least 20 points in every game, and tallying at least 30 points 13 times, including six games of 40+ points. Although the offense has slowed down greatly since the start of November (31.3 PPG) compared to the first two months of the season (42.9 PPG), turnovers are also down considerably from 17 giveaways in the first eight games, compared to just 11 over the past 10 contests.
The Broncos have also run the ball better in their past eight games, averaging 133 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.6 YPC. Running the football, especially in cold and windy conditions, will a big key to their success of sustaining drives, something they have been masterful at all season with a third-down conversion rate of 48%, which includes an eye-popping 62% rate (16-of-26) in the playoffs.
RB Knowshon Moreno is the main ball carrier, producing 1,179 yards on 278 carries (4.2 YPC) with 11 touchdowns on the ground and zero lost fumbles. Backup RB Montee Ball has 654 yards on 142 carries (4.6 YPC) and 4 TD, and hasn't fumbled since Week 3. Although Moreno was held to just 51 yards on 24 carries (2.1 YPG) in the 2010 meeting with Seattle, he also gained 67 yards through the air and scored a touchdown that day.
But this offense will not completely abandon the passing game, no matter what the elements are. QB Peyton Manning is 11-9 in his playoff career where he's thrown for 5,888 yards (294 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 35 TD and 22 INT, but his cold-weather numbers aren't to the level of his lofty standards. In 18 career starts in outdoor games with a temperature below 40 degrees, Manning is just 8-10 with 4,415 passing yards (245 YPG, 7.2 YPA), 30 TD and 22 INT. In four playoff games in this cold-weather scenario, his numbers are downright horrible: 0-4, 56% completions, 226 passing YPG, 5.5 YPA, 4 TD and 9 INT.
But he's never had a receiving corps nearly as good as his current foursome of WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker, and with TE Julius Thomas.
Demaryius Thomas has racked up 1,618 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season, with six 100-yard efforts in his past 10 games, including 134 in the AFC Championship win over New England. He also caught eight passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in that 2010 victory over the Seahawks.
Decker has gained 1,393 yards through the air with 11 scores this season, but his yardage totals have been less consistent with four 100-yard efforts, but also eight games of 55 yards or less.
The play of Wes Welker (854 rec. yards, 11 TD in 15 games) will be key in this matchup, as he is the possession receiver tasked with running shorter routes over the middle of the field. But Welker has been held below 40 yards in four of his past five games, and has already suffered two known concussions this season.
Julius Thomas has 949 receiving yards and 12 TD this season, and has been excellent in these playoffs with 14 catches for 161 yards.
Defensively, the Broncos have allowed a pedestrian 24.0 PPG on 349 YPG this season, but these numbers have improved greatly during their current four-game win streak to 15.0 PPG on 269 YPG. However, the defense has been terrible on turf fields this season, allowing a hefty 35.0 PPG on 446 YPG in these three contests.
The good news is that Denver is much more efficient in stopping the run this season (97 YPG on 3.9 YPC) than the pass (251 YPG on 6.7 YPA), and running the football is exactly what Seattle's offense will try to do. The Broncos don't have that dynamic pass rusher with LB Von Miller on injured reserve, failing to record more than four sacks in any of their 18 games this season.
But they have tallied at least two sacks in 16 games, including each of the past six contests where they have totaled 15 sacks. Turnovers are a key to any game, as there are only four teams in the history of the NFL that have lost the turnover battle in a Super Bowl and still won the big game. In their past 10 games, the Broncos have forced only 10 turnovers, including zero in the two playoff contests.
Check out more Super Bowl XLVIII Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag
Super Bowl 48 Countdown
By Jim Feist
Freeplays.com
In the world of eleven to ten, there’s nothing quite like Super Bowl week. In this case, it’s two weeks, as the teams have two weeks to prepare for the Big Game. It’s also one of the most creative weeks of the sports betting season. While there’s only one game left on the football calendar, there are still ample opportunities for betting with hundreds of creative props by various oddsmakers.
For example, you can bet on the exact score of the game by each team, who will score first, or how many yards a player has. A year ago the largest lead was projected at over/under 14 (The Ravens led 21-6 at the half and 28-6 when Jacoby Jones returned the third quarter kickoff 108 yards). RB Ray Rice’s receptions was 3½ — he ended up with four catches for 19 yards. Passing yards by Joe Flacco was set at 247½ (he threw for 287). Two years ago QB Tom Brady was projected over/under 300 yards and 2.5 TDs (he finished with 276 yards, 2 TDs, going under for both).
Three years ago, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers’ TD passes was over/under 2 (he threw 3 against Pittsburgh). His first pass to be incomplete was +210 (it was). Four years ago, Pierre Garcon scored the first TD at 10-to-1 odds. Five years ago, RB Gary Russell was 18-to-1 to score the first TD in the Super Bowl and did on a one-yard run. He finished with minus-three yards rushing but cashed that exclusive prop.
Seven years ago, if you bet on Chicago return specialist Devin Hester to score the first touchdown of the game you would have cashed a 25-to-1 prop ticket after he returned the opening kickoff 92 yards. 14 seconds in cashing a 25-to-1 ticket is the best way to watch a Super Bowl!
You can wager that no TDs will be scored by either team, often at 50-to-1. Of course, that has never happened as we head to Super Bowl 48 next week. There also has never been overtime, though you will be able to wager on “Will there be overtime or not?” There will be “over/under” lines offered on how many touchdown passes a quarterback might throw, the first team to turn the ball over and even the coin flip. There will be creative wagers offered such as how many receiving yards one player might get matched up against the number of points the NBA’s Jeff Green might have as the Celtics/Magic battle before the Super Sunday kickoff.
The Super Bowl brings out the best in the creative minds of oddsmakers. Smart bettors will search through all the props, totals and side bets offered in an attempt to find an edge and add to their bankrolls. Since Super Bowl X in 1976 between the Steelers and Cowboys, there have been 22 “overs” and 16 “unders.”
Why so many “overs?” One factor is that coaches with a lead are less likely to sit on the ball in the second half in a Super Bowl. If a team is up 17-0 at the half of a December game, for example, a coach might be inclined to go conservative, run the clock and avoid injuries. In the postseason, it’s the final game of the year and no lead is safe. No coach wants to play super-conservative and be remembered as the guy who blew a 20-0 lead in the biggest game of his career. Since it’s the last game of the season, coaches often put in trick plays and new offensive wrinkles in an attempt to maximize scoring opportunities.
Despite the excessive “overs” you can’t overlook the importance of defense. The Patriots got taken down against the defensive-oriented Ravens a year ago, while the 49ers were a powerhouse defensive team. Two years ago the Saints and Packers didn’t win a playoff game despite all those flashy offensive numbers, while the defensive-oriented Giants, 49ers and Ravens made it to the Final Four.
In 2008 and 2012 the big story was the flashy offense of the Patriots as a favorite each time, but who came out ahead? The great defense of the Giants kept the game close and was the main reason in their 17-14 and 21-17 victories. 11 years ago the No. 1 offense (Oakland) faced the No. 1 defense (Tampa Bay)? Oakland’s great offense was a 4-point favorite, but Tampa’s defense dominated in a 48-21 rout. In fact, seven of the last 13 Super Bowl champs have had statistically better defenses than their offenses, including the 2005 Steelers (4th in defense) and 2008 Steelers (No. 1). Three of those champs, the 2001 Patriots, the ’02 Buccaneers and the ’07 Giants, were Super Bowl underdogs.
You’ll be able to find creative point spread props, too. Seven years ago, the total number of field goals was 3½ over +135. The Colts and Bears combined for 4 field goals as the over just made it. Eight years ago Seattle RB Shaun Alexander had these over/under props: Total yards 89½, carries 21½, and longest rush 19½. The final tallies: 95 yards, 20 carries, with the longest rush of 21 yards. Nine years ago the number of passing yards by QB Tom Brady: 237½. The “under” ended up being the winner, but not by much: Brady finished with 236 passing yards.
Key numbers will come into play, as well, as books are petrified of getting middled. 14 years ago the Rams were a 7 to 7½-point favorite against the Titans. The Rams won by seven points, 23-16. The most famous example was in 1979, forever known in Las Vegas as “Black Sunday.” The Steelers opened a 2½-point favorite over the Cowboys, were bet up to 5, then back down to 4. Books everywhere were sick when the Steelers won, 35-31, landing on the dreaded ‘M’ word!
SBXLVIII Betting Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
SB XLVIII – A Charlie Brown Super Bowl
To better visualize the winner of Super Bowl XLVIII we look to Winston Churchill, who once said, “The farther back you can look the farther forward you are likely to see.”
In the case of Super Bowls past, we can look back as far as 1967. Coupled with the power of our way-back machine – aka our database – let’s break down what appears to be a very evenly matched Super Bowl game between Denver and Seattle at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Here is our list of checks and balances for SB XLVIII.
Even Steven
Not only is SB XLVIII the first Super Bowl in 20 years to pair No. 1 seeds from each conference, both teams bring identical 15-3 records into the fray.
Looking deeper, each team squared off against five common opponents (both faced the AFC South) this season, both going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in those games with Denver going 5-0 ITS (In The Stats) for a net of +748 yards. Seattle was 4-1 ITS for net of +428 yards,
In games versus fellow playoff teams this season, the Broncos went 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 7-2 ITS for a net of +621 yards. The Seahawks were 4-2 SU and ATS, 3-2-1 ITS, for a net of +244 yards.
Edge: None.
Head-To-Head
The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.
Denver has won the last 10 games in a row in this series in games in which they’ve owned a win percentage of .800 or greater.
Seattle is 1-19 SU in its last twenty games versus AFC West opponents who sport a win percentage of .800 or greater.
Edge: Broncos.
Statistically Speaking
Seattle’s defense is ranked No.1 overall, surrendering 284 YPG while allowing a league low 15 PPG. Denver’s offense is ranked No. 1 overall, gaining 454 YPG, scoring a league best 36 PPG.
This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has beat offense 3 of the 4 previous meetings. In addition teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls.
However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.
Edge: None.
Logistically Speaking
Teams arriving to the Super Bowl off three consecutive home games (Seattle) are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS since 2000, including 0-5 SU and ATS off a win of 6 or less points
Super Bowl teams off four consecutive home games (Seattle) are 0-3 SU and ATS since 2000, losing all three times SU as a favorite. The Seahawks last game away from Seattle was 34 days ago (December 15).
Super bowl favorites of 5 or less points in ‘double rest’ affairs - week of rest first playoff game and week of rest before the Super Bowl – are 1-7 both SU and ATS (Broncos).
Edge: None.
Behind Center
To no one’s surprise, both quarterbacks bring terrific QB Ratings in to the contest. Denver’s Peyton Manning finished the regular season as the league’s top-ranked signal caller at 115.1 on 55 TDs and 10 INTs. Seattle’s Russell Wilson owned a 101.2 QB Rating, with 26 TDs and 9 INTs.
The postseason’s QB Ratings show Manning at 107.0, while Wilson’s numbers have further regressed during the playoffs down to 89.1.
Manning is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career versus Seattle, including 2-0 ATS as a favorite. He is also 28-7 SU and 22-12-1 ATS with the Broncos.
After winning SB XLI with the Colts in 2007, Manning has completed 248 of 366 passes for 18 TDs and 7 INTS in a total of nine postseason efforts since.
Wilson is 27-9 SU and 25-11 ATS as a starting QB with the Seahawks, including 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS as a dog.
Wilson has tossed for less than 200 yards in over half of his starts, 19 to be exact including 9 this season (including each of his last 6 games).
FYI: the Manning-led Broncos are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in game in which they have managed to hold opponents to 200 or less passing yards in a game.
Edge: Broncos.
On The Sidelines
Denver’s John Fox brings an 8-5 SU and ATS NFL postseason career mark into this game, dropping a 32-29 decision as a 7-point dog to New England in SB XXVII.
Fox is just 11-22 SU and 12-20-1 ATS in his NFL career in games versus .769 or greater opposition.
Seattle’s Pete Carroll is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in his NFL playoff career.
The good news is Carroll is 36-24-4 ATS as an underdog in the NFL. The bad news is he is 1-5 SU/ATS as a dog of 2 or less points, and 0-11 SU as an underdog in games in which his team owns a win percentage of .647 or more.
Edge: None.
Super Bowl History
The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.
The last NFC No. 1 seed (Seahawks), other than New Orleans in 2009, to win a Super Bowl was St. Louis in 2000.
17 of the last 20 quarterbacks have owned a QB Rating of 92.6 or better.
Favorites of 3 or less points (Broncos) are 7-4 SU and ATS, and 5-6 to the ‘Under’.
Teams who won their last two playoff games against foes that were off a playoff road win (Seahawks) are 4-8 SU/ATS, including 1-5 SU/ATS since 2000.
Teams who score 20 or fewer points in the game are 6-30 SU and 9-33 ATS. Teams who score 21 or more points in the game are 40-12 SU and 36-14-2 ATS.
The SU winner of a Super Bowl game is 39-6-2 ATS all-time.
Edge: None.
Ups And Downs
The oddsmakers have done their best job posting Over/Under totals on Super Bowl games. That’s confirmed by the fact that there have been 24 ‘Overs' and 22 ‘Unders’ in this history of the big game – with no total available in the inaugural game.
After the Giants and Patriots played to 17-14 ‘Under’ in 2008, each of the last five Super Bowl totals results have alternated, going: O-U-O-U-O since.
The big story in the world of Over/Under total in the NFL this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the ‘Over’.
Despite the success of this betting trend this season, there has not been a major move to the ‘Over’ in this year’s Super Bowl, due largely to the fact the game is being played outdoors in New Jersey.
Cold temperatures, snow and wind will likely be the determining factor as to which direction the opening total of 47.5 settles.
Edge: The weatherman.
As Charlie Brown would say, “That’s my 5 cents.” Enjoy the game!
Tale Of The Tape
By Joe Nelson
Playbook.com
The Super Bowl closes out the long football season and is one of the most anticipated betting events of the year. It is a difficult game to handicap given the unique situations involved for both teams with the extra preparation time, attention, and the neutral site. While there may be better opportunities digging deeper into the numerous proposition bets available, here is a look at the traditional options for Sunday's big game.
The case for Denver...
The Denver offense posted record setting numbers this season, scoring over 36 points per game on the season. Those figures include two playoff games that featured lower numbers but featured the Broncos in complete control. If you take away the three games against San Diego, the one team that seemed to be able to slow Denver down, the Broncos averaged 39 points per game. Denver's defense does not have Seattle's overall statistical profile but down the stretch and in the playoffs Denver was arguably more impressive on defense. In the two playoff games Denver allowed 33 points but they allowed just three points combined in the first three quarters of the two games as almost all of the scoring for San Diego and New England came with the game all but in hand for the Broncos. The teams that did give the Denver defense problems were mostly strong down field passing teams, the Cowboys and Giants early in the season, the Colts, and a Patriots squad with Rob Gronkowski, were some of the most productive teams against the Broncos. That has not been the formula for the Seahawks on offense as Seattle is reliant on running the ball to set up the passing game. Denver actually has featured a superior run defense to Seattle and none of the last four foes for the Broncos have topped 87 yards rushing with the two playoff opponents combining for only 129 yards rushing. If Seattle is unable to run the ball effectively they will have little chance of keeping up with the Broncos.
The case for Seattle...
Seattle's offense struggled down the stretch by most measures, scoring just 22 points per game in the seven games after a week 12 bye. In six of those seven games the Seahawks faced a team that finished in top eight in the NFL in total defense however. On the season the Seahawks played eight games against teams that finished in the top six in the league in total defense while Denver did not play a single one. The Broncos actually only played five games all season against teams that finished in the top 20 in the league in total defense. On a yards per play basis the numbers are just as glaring, Seattle faced a top 10 yards per play defense in half of its 18 games this season, while Denver only faced one such game all season as the record setting numbers for the Broncos came against an incredibly weak slate of defenses. Turnovers often decide NFL games and Seattle was the best team in the league at creating turnovers, averaging 2.4 turnovers per game. The Seahawks were also one of the best teams at not giving the ball away while Denver struggled with turnovers this season with 1.6 giveaways per game and those mistakes came against much lesser defensive teams than Seattle. While the Saints wound up with 301 yards passing in the divisional playoff game with a few big plays in a late rally after Seattle built a lead, no other team topped 214 yards passing against Seattle all season long and it is certainly difficult to envision a scenario where the Broncos win without success in the air.
The case for the Over...
While the Super Bowls of the 1980s and 1990s featured a heavy lean to the 'over' the trend has flipped with six of the last nine Super Bowls playing 'under'. Three of the last six Super Bowls have featured a total in the 50s and this year's game currently features a total lower than 14 of the last 25 Super Bowls despite this game featuring two teams that are in the top eight in the league in scoring offense. The Broncos were the highest scoring regular season team in NFL history and if you take away the seven games against division rivals this is a Broncos team that averaged 41 points per game. In the four games against NFC teams Denver actually scored over 47 points per game on average. Seattle was statistically the best defense in the NFL this season by most measures but Seattle did play eight games against teams in the bottom 10 of the NFL in yards per play offense and the Seahawks only played three games against the NFL's top 10 yards per play teams. The Seattle offense was much better than it often gets credit for as well as the Seahawks has scored almost 26 points per game this season despite playing 13 games against the top 15 teams in the league in total defense. The Seahawks actually played eight games this season against teams that finished in the top six in the NFL in total defense. By most measures Denver was a very average defense this season and while the Broncos have been sharp defensively in the playoffs the lower scoring games in the run to the Super Bowl has pushed this total to the lowest number in any Broncos game all season. The average total in a Denver game this season was 54 so there is almost an entire touchdown taken off with respect for Seattle's defense. Weather is a valid concern for what should be the coldest Super Bowl ever but weather is often over compensated for in NFL games as the field will be meticulously cared for given the huge stage and the players have advanced equipment suitable for all conditions.
The case for the Under...
The record setting Denver offense certainly deserves some respect but who exactly did the Broncos have to play this season? Denver only played one game all season against a defense that finished the season in the top 11 of the league in yards per play defense. Eight of the 18 games for the Broncos came against a team in the bottom eight of the league in that measure. 13 of the 18 games for Denver came against teams ranking in the bottom 12 of the NFL in total defense as well. Seattle was the #1 total defense this season by almost 20 yards per game as well as being the #1 scoring defense and the #1 yards per play defense. This is a historically great defense especially compared with the upward scoring of the league in general this season. The most passing yards against the Seahawks in the regular season was just 214 yards, the Saints did eclipse that mark in the divisional round of the playoffs but New Orleans did not score a single point through three quarters in that game, posting a total of 156 yards through its first eight possessions before getting a few late scores. While the Seattle defense will get most of the attention, Denver has allowed just 15 points per game in the last four games despite some notable injuries. The scoring against Denver is also inflated with 30 of 33 points allowed in the two playoff games coming in the fourth quarter. Denver is currently the fourth best rush defense in the NFL in yards per game allowed, holding foes to less than 98 yards per game, on just 3.9 yards per carry, both figures that best the great Seattle defense against the run. This matchup should play out favorably for both defenses as Seattle's great rush offense will face a very good rush defense and the great passing game for Denver will deal with a great Seattle pass defense. Seattle has also been top takeaway team in the league, averaging 2.4 turnovers created per game and with this high number even one missed scoring opportunity could disrupt the scoring pace significantly. Add in a very good chance of wind and snow and the added pressure and attention of this big game for two teams that were much better performers at home and it is easy to see this game unfolding as a lower scoring affair.
Betting SBXLVIII Props
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Super Bowl Props… Betting Tips
Super Bowl XLVIII kicks off Feb. 2 in chilly New Jersey when Denver meets Seattle in a matchup of former AFC West squads with identical records.
Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet like mops on cleaning day.
It's important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the odds maker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent 'juice' edge in his favor. Thus, it's critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.
In addition, the props are designed to create added action for the books.
"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, director of Race and Sports at the LVH Super Book in Las Vegas.
Furthermore, it's important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.
According to Kornegay the Super Bowl is the only NFL game of the season where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.
With that thought in mind, here are some tips on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year's Super Bowl.
The Coin Toss
A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It's fast and it takes place just prior to kickoff.
Amazingly, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip 14 years in a row until New England and Baltimore prevailed each of the last two Super Bowls.
What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year's coin flip: 50/50.
Quarterback Action Tops Player Props
Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 26 times in 47 previous Super Bowl games, with Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco taking the honors last year.
Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP's.
Denver’s Peyton Manning (+110) and Seattle’s Russell Wilson (+325) lead the MVP charge this year.
In head-to-head proposition competition the LVH favors Manning over Wilson in each of the following categories: -10.5 most completions; -0.5 most touchdown passes; -78.5 most gross passing yards.
Most rushing yards finds Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch -30.5 over Knowshon Moreno.
Most receiving yards finds Denver’s Eric Decker -9.5 over Seattle’s Golden Tate; Denver’s Wes Welker -15.5 over Seattle’s Doug Baldwin and Denver’s Julius (not Demaryius) Thomas -25.5 over Seattle’s Zach Miller.
My groundswell of support for is for Broncos WR Welker to go ‘over’ 54.5 receiving yards as well as ‘over’ 5.5 pass receptions.
In two career losing Super Bowl games with Tom Brady and the Patriots, Welker – who figures to be Manning’s primary underneath target - managed to catch 7 passes for 60 yards in one game and 11 passes for 107 yards in the other.
Team Scoring Tendencies
Sharp edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the linemakers eyes.
Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring average points per game scored and allowed in each quarter for each team.
Note: both teams played exactly 17 games each this season.
1Q – Denver: 7.8 / 3.4
1Q – Seattle: 4.2 / 1.4
2Q – Denver: 9.7 / 7.3
2Q – Seattle: 8.5 / 6.4
3Q – Denver 8.1 / 5.8
3Q – Seattle: 5.4 / 2.7
4Q – Denver: 10.9 / 7.2
4Q – Seattle: 7.3 / 4.2
Notice both the Broncos and Seahawks have each scored and allowed the fewest points in the first stanza. They have also each allowed the most points in 2nd quarter action.
Breaking their games down by the half we find:
1st Half – Denver: 17.5 / 10.8
1st Half – Seattle: 12.7 / 7.8
2nd Half – Denver: 18.9 / 13.0
2nd Half – Seattle: 12.7 / 6.8
Buyer beware.
Player Scoring Tendencies
The leading candidate to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVIII is Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch with Denver WR’s Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas a whisker off.
Over the previous 47 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 20 times. Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin found the end zone first for the Ravens against the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII last year.
Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.
2 For The Money
A popular prop is whether or not there will be a safety in the game.
With each of the last two Super Bowl games having produced a Safety, the popularity of playing betting safeties has increased. FYI: teams who record them are 5-3 in Super Bowl games, with 6 coming via the defense and 2 by way of penalty.
In terms of non-conventional scoring (sans touchdowns, field goals and extra points), safeties (8 – one every 5.87 games) rank only behind kickoffs for a touchdown (9 – one every 5.22 games), and just ahead of 2-point conversions (6 – one every 7.83 games).
The LVH Superbook offered a safety at ‘Yes’ +550 and ‘No’ -800 for Super Bowl XLVIII. A successful 2-point conversion is ‘Yes’ +425 and ‘No’ -550.
Who Will Have More… Odd Props
Melding Super Bowl props with other sports is another popular wagering option.
The LVH features no less than 48 cross-sports opportunities (up from 38 last year) ranging from Manning’s pass attempts (-7.5) versus Kevin Durrant points, to Wilson’s passing yards (-16.5) versus the Celtics/Magic total points.
College hoops gets into the fray with the Pitt Panthers points -15.5 over Wes Welker’s receiving yards, along with Marshawn Lynch rushing yards -9.5 over UCLA points scored.
Golfers are offered 7 cross-props (that just sounds wrong), the most popular of which is Tigers Woods’ 4th round score -5.5 versus Eric Decker’s receiving yards.
Soccer fanatics rejoice with no less than 13 ‘Who Gets More’ options, including pitting Liverpool goals (-0.5) up Wilson’s TD touchdowns.
Hockey fans can get in the game, too, with a half-dozen propositions, featuring the Red Wings’ goals (+105) going up against the Seahawks rushing touchdowns (-125).
And on and on it goes. Where it stops only Jay Kornegay knows.
One thing is for sure. This will mark the first time in 10 years that the team with the best record in the league will win the Super Bowl.
That’s a lock.
SBXLVIII Outlook
By Sportsbook.ag
Super Bowl XLVIII - Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3)
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 2 - 6:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Current Line & Total: Denver -2.5 & 47
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line & Total: Pick ‘em & 48
The top two seeds in the NFL meet up for Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, as the Seahawks seek their first-ever championship against a Broncos team that last won the title in the 1998 season.
Both teams have identical 15-3 SU records (including 6-2 on the road) heading into the final game of the season, with Seattle going 12-6 ATS and Denver going 11-6-1 ATS. But the makeup of the two clubs is entirely different, as the Seahawks own the league's best defense (14.6 PPG, 283 YPG allowed) while the Broncos have the NFL's top offense with 36.4 PPG and 455 total YPG.
The field conditions appear to favor Seattle, as the club is 10-1 SU (7-4 ATS) on turf this season and its run-oriented offense is more conducive to what is forecast to be the coldest Super Bowl in NFL history with a significant amount of wind. Although Denver has scored a lofty 41.0 PPG on 448 total YPG in its three turf games this season (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), the weather is less than ideal for its pass-happy offense.
Both quarterbacks have had excellent seasons, with Seahawks QB Russell Wilson throwing for 3,357 yards (8.2 YPA), 26 TD and 9 INT, and Broncos QB Peyton Manning is coming off the best regular season in NFL history with 5,477 passing yards (8.3 YPA), 55 TD and 10 INT.
These teams used to be in the same division, with Denver holding a 17-6 SU (12-10-1 ATS) advantage in this series since 1992. But they have met just twice over the past decade with Seattle winning 23-20 in 2006, but losing 31-14 in the most recent meeting in 2010 when Kyle Orton outplayed Matt Hasselbeck in the matchup of starting quarterbacks.
Both clubs have loads of favorable betting trends, highlighted by the Seahawks' 10-0 ATS mark in the second half of the season under head coach Pete Carroll versus teams that allow 24+ PPG, winning by an average of 32.0 PPG to 12.0 PPG in this situation.
But the Broncos have thrived with at least two weeks of rest since 1992, going 15-2 ATS and outscoring these opponents by nearly double-digits (29.4 PPG to 19.6 PPG). With the two weeks in between games, both teams will have time to get healthy.
Seattle expects to have both WRs Percy Harvin (head) and Doug Baldwin (hip) on the field, while Denver lists both RB Knowshon Moreno (ribs) and DB Tony Carter (concussion) as probable.
The Seahawks offense is built around a power running game that averages 138 YPG on 4.3 YPC this season. RB Marshawn Lynch is the engine for this elite ground game, piling up 1,506 yards on 351 carries (4.3 YPC) with 15 TD this season, which includes 249 yards on 50 carries (5.0 YPC) and three scores in the playoffs. In two career meetings with Denver when he was with Buffalo, Lynch ran for 133 yards on 30 carries (4.1 YPC) and 2 TD.
The Seattle ground game is also helped out greatly by QB Russell Wilson, who has galloped for 555 yards on 104 carries (5.3 YPC), although he has gained just 16 yards on 13 carries during his team's three-game win streak.
But the Seahawks are capable of throwing the football too, with Wilson completing 63% of his passes for 204 YPG. Wilson hasn't had the services of WR Percy Harvin for nearly the entire season, as he touched the ball just twice during the regular season, but Harvin was a big part of the offense in the team's first playoff win versus New Orleans when he caught three passes for 21 yards in the first half of that game before sustaining a head injury.
Even if Harvin isn't a big part of the team's offense, Wilson has been just fine without him in his playoff career, going 3-1 and completing 61% of his passes for 890 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 TD and just one interception. WRs Golden Tate (942 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Doug Baldwin (914 rec. yards, 5 TD) are his most frequently used receivers, while TE Zach Miller (423 rec. yards, 5 TD) also plays an important role in the passing offense.
The Seahawks have not been great on third downs this season at 37%, and this rate has dropped to 28% over the past five games. But the club has done an excellent job of protecting the football recently, turning the ball over just five times in the past nine games combined.
The Under has occurred seven straight times in Seattle games thanks to a defense that has allowed just 12.0 PPG and 267 total YPG during this seven-game stretch. For the season, the Seahawks have been stingy in stuffing the run (105 YPG on 4.0 YPC) and have been even more proficient in stopping the pass (178 YPG on 5.4 YPA and 58.7% completions). Putting pressure on Peyton Manning will be a key to the team's chances of winning this matchup. Although Seattle has 47 sacks this season, the club has recorded two sacks or less in eight of its past nine games. But the Seahawks have also done an excellent job of forcing mistakes with an impressive 43 takeaways on the season, including 15 over the past five games.
Denver's offense has put up points in bunches all season, scoring at least 20 points in every game, and tallying at least 30 points 13 times, including six games of 40+ points. Although the offense has slowed down greatly since the start of November (31.3 PPG) compared to the first two months of the season (42.9 PPG), turnovers are also down considerably from 17 giveaways in the first eight games, compared to just 11 over the past 10 contests.
The Broncos have also run the ball better in their past eight games, averaging 133 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.6 YPC. Running the football, especially in cold and windy conditions, will a big key to their success of sustaining drives, something they have been masterful at all season with a third-down conversion rate of 48%, which includes an eye-popping 62% rate (16-of-26) in the playoffs.
RB Knowshon Moreno is the main ball carrier, producing 1,179 yards on 278 carries (4.2 YPC) with 11 touchdowns on the ground and zero lost fumbles. Backup RB Montee Ball has 654 yards on 142 carries (4.6 YPC) and 4 TD, and hasn't fumbled since Week 3. Although Moreno was held to just 51 yards on 24 carries (2.1 YPG) in the 2010 meeting with Seattle, he also gained 67 yards through the air and scored a touchdown that day.
But this offense will not completely abandon the passing game, no matter what the elements are. QB Peyton Manning is 11-9 in his playoff career where he's thrown for 5,888 yards (294 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 35 TD and 22 INT, but his cold-weather numbers aren't to the level of his lofty standards. In 18 career starts in outdoor games with a temperature below 40 degrees, Manning is just 8-10 with 4,415 passing yards (245 YPG, 7.2 YPA), 30 TD and 22 INT. In four playoff games in this cold-weather scenario, his numbers are downright horrible: 0-4, 56% completions, 226 passing YPG, 5.5 YPA, 4 TD and 9 INT.
But he's never had a receiving corps nearly as good as his current foursome of WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker, and with TE Julius Thomas.
Demaryius Thomas has racked up 1,618 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season, with six 100-yard efforts in his past 10 games, including 134 in the AFC Championship win over New England. He also caught eight passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in that 2010 victory over the Seahawks.
Decker has gained 1,393 yards through the air with 11 scores this season, but his yardage totals have been less consistent with four 100-yard efforts, but also eight games of 55 yards or less.
The play of Wes Welker (854 rec. yards, 11 TD in 15 games) will be key in this matchup, as he is the possession receiver tasked with running shorter routes over the middle of the field. But Welker has been held below 40 yards in four of his past five games, and has already suffered two known concussions this season.
Julius Thomas has 949 receiving yards and 12 TD this season, and has been excellent in these playoffs with 14 catches for 161 yards.
Defensively, the Broncos have allowed a pedestrian 24.0 PPG on 349 YPG this season, but these numbers have improved greatly during their current four-game win streak to 15.0 PPG on 269 YPG. However, the defense has been terrible on turf fields this season, allowing a hefty 35.0 PPG on 446 YPG in these three contests.
The good news is that Denver is much more efficient in stopping the run this season (97 YPG on 3.9 YPC) than the pass (251 YPG on 6.7 YPA), and running the football is exactly what Seattle's offense will try to do. The Broncos don't have that dynamic pass rusher with LB Von Miller on injured reserve, failing to record more than four sacks in any of their 18 games this season.
But they have tallied at least two sacks in 16 games, including each of the past six contests where they have totaled 15 sacks. Turnovers are a key to any game, as there are only four teams in the history of the NFL that have lost the turnover battle in a Super Bowl and still won the big game. In their past 10 games, the Broncos have forced only 10 turnovers, including zero in the two playoff contests.
Check out more Super Bowl XLVIII Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag
Forty-Eight Great Betting Notes For Super Bowl XLVIII
By Brian Covert
Covers.com
We're just a few days away from Super Bowl XLVIII so it's time to really buckle down and get focused on your bets. We put together a list of the best 48 Super Bowl betting notes we could find to help you with your handicapping down the stretch.
1. Sunday’s game will be only the third time in the last 20 years the two preseason favorites have met in the Super Bowl. The NFC has won the two previous meetings with the New Orleans Saints beating the Indianapolis Colts in 2009 and the Dallas Cowboys beating the Buffalo Bills in 1993.
2. The closest approximation of this year’s Super Bowl matchup was in 2002, when the league’s best defensive team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, beat the Oakland Raiders, who were the league’s second-highest scoring team, 48-21.
3. Twenty-one of 47 Super Bowls have featured a Top-5 total offense against a Top-5 total defense. In those instances, the defense has beaten the offense 13 times SU. However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in the last seven Super Bowls.
4. The NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS.
5. The team that scores first is 31-16 SU in the Super Bowl.
6. The Broncos’ starters have an average 5.7 seasons in the NFL, 3.3 playoffs and players who have experienced five different Super Bowls. The Seahawks starters have an average of 4.6 seasons, 2.5 playoff seasons, and no Super Bowl appearances.
7. Denver’s coaching staff has a combined 49 NFL seasons, 19 playoff seasons, and three Super Bowls between them while Seattle’s coaching staff have 38 NFL seasons, 19 playoff seasons, and zero Super Bowls between them.
8. Seattle beat Denver 40-10 as a 5-point favorite in the preseason. Peyton Manning was 11 for 16 for 163 yards passing and a TD while Russell Wilson went 8-for-12 for 127 yards and two scores.
9. The Broncos set an NFL record with 606 points scored this season. Not one of the next eight teams on the all-time season scoring list went on to win the Super Bowl.
10. The team that controls the clock usually wins. Teams that have a superior time of possession have won nine of the last 12 Super Bowls SU. The Seahawks have averaged 29:59 minutes of possession in their two playoff games while the Broncos have averaged over 35:30 minutes of possession in their two postseason games.
Total
11. The Seattle Seahawks have given up only 30 points twice in two seasons – a Week 5 loss at Indianapolis and a 30-28 loss to the Atlanta Falcons in last year’s divisional playoff round. Denver has scored at least 30 points in 12 of 18 games this season.
12. According to the website Advanced NFL Stats, temperatures of 25 degrees or less affect play calling. The same website says a winds of 15 mph or stronger also affects play calling.
13. Terry McAulay was named head official for Super Bowl XLVIII. McAulay presided over both Super Bowl XXXIX, in which the Patriots beat the Eagles 24-21 as 7-point favorites and Super Bowl XLIII in which the Steelers beat the Cardinals 27-23 as 6.5-point favorites. In Super Bowl XXXIX, there were 10 penalties called for 82 yards total. In Super Bowl XLIII, there were 18 penalties for 182 yards total.
14. Weather Underground isn’t predicting a major storm but is expecting “a frontal system that with colder air retreating, all precipitation types, from snow, to sleet, to rain, are on the table with this system.”
15. Cold weather and frozen fields could push both teams' preparations indoors which coaches agree is not ideal because the synthetic field is harder on their players’ legs.
16. In 10 playoff games there have only been seven pass interference calls made. Seattle is the most penalized teams in terms of pass interference calls with 13 in 18 games for a total of 232 yards. Denver is the second biggest beneficiary of pass interference calls with 14 calls against for 215 yards.
17. Eight of the past 12 Super Bowl winners were flagged for more penalty yards than the loser. Seattle was the most penalized team during the regular season with 7.9 per game while Denver was 30 of 34 with 7.1 per game.
18. Seattle has given up an NFL-low 231 points this year with only 101 of those points coming in the second half.
19. Peyton Manning has averaged 295 yards and has thrown 19 touchdowns versus 10 interceptions in his last eight games in sub 40-degree weather.
20. Broncos had a touchdown drive of 7 minutes, one second against the San Diego Chargers to go with scoring drives of 7:50 and 7:52 Sunday against the Patriots. Those are the three longest scoring drives of the season for the Broncos. Denver is slowing down its pace on offense, compared to a hurried no-huddle attack in the regular season.
Props
21. The winning QB has been Super Bowl MVP in six of the last seven games. Peyton Manning is currently the oddsmakers' favorite at 8/5 while Russell Wilson is next at 13/4.
22. After the quarterbacks, Marshawn Lynch is, at 6/1, the oddsmakers’ favorite to life the MVP trophy. No running back has been named MVP since Terrell Davis was in 1998.
23. The total for how many times Peyton Manning will say “Omaha” is 27.5. The Broncos QB used it 44 times in the divisional round versus San Diego and 31 versus New England.
24. The AFC has won the last two coin tosses in a row. Before that the NFC had won 13 straight.
25. "Heads" has been the right call in the last five Super Bowls and six of the last seven.
Seattle Seahawks
26. Seattle WR Percy Harvin was given the all clear to return to practice after suffering a concussion versus the Saints and did so this past Wednesday. He still needs to be given medical clearance to play Sunday.
27. Russell Wilson is leaving no stone unturned in preparation for the big game. The Seattle QB is anticipating 56 different balls to be used during the game and the larger Super Bowl emblem will make the ball slicker than usual.
28. The Seahawks defense has held standout tight ends Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis to a combined three catches and 24 yards in their two playoff games. Denver TEs Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme were instrumental in the team’s AFC Championship win making 10 catches for 109 yards and two TDs.
29. Pete Carroll intends on keeping the competition for starting left guard open through the week leading up to the big game with Dan Carpenter, Michael Bowie, and Paul McQuistan all vying for the position.
30. With Harvin in the lineup the Seahawks will, at times, be able to lineup with at least three wide receivers. They have had such a formation on only 12 first-down attempts, 16 second-down attempts, and 24 third downs.
31. This will be Seattle’s third trip to Meadowlands in the last three years. They beat the Giants 36-25 as 10-point underdogs in 2011 and 23-0 as 9.5-point favorites in December. The O/U is 1-1 in those games both times with a 43.5-point total.
32. Russell Wilson is 8-1 ATS as an underdog as the Seahawks starter.
33. Percy Harvin faced the Broncos as a member of the Minnesota Vikings racking up a career-high 175 yards from scrimmage. One hundred of those yards came on a pair of touchdown catches covering 52 and 48 yards.
34. The Seahawks were dead last, converting only 49 percent of chances when facing third and fourth-and-two to convert or a goal-to-go situation inside the two-yard line.
Denver Broncos
35. The Denver Broncos gave up the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Seattle TE Zach Miller caught only 33 passes for 387 yards and five TDs but was most prolific in December with 11 catches for 139 yards and two TDs.
36. Denver kicker Matt Prater missed three straight days of practice because of illness but managed to fly with the team to New York Sunday. Team took precautions to ensure Prater didn’t pass anything on.
37. Defenses have made nearly 200 pressure calls versus Peyton Manning this season. He has been sacked only five times on these occasions while passing for 14 touchdowns and five interceptions.
38. Denver RB Knowshon Moreno was listed as questionable with a rib injury suffered in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship Game. Moreno says he will be good to go Sunday and doesn’t expect needing to wear any additional padding.
39. The Broncos run game averaged 30 rushes and five yards per carry in their three cold weather games this season. Overall, Denver averaged almost 29 carries per game for just 4.1 yards per carry over the regular season.
40. The Broncos offense has given the ball away 28 times in 18 games while the Seahawks defense have 42 takeaways.
41. Denver has almost 500 snaps of no-huddle offense this season with 89 so far in the postseason. They have scored 57 touchdowns from this package in 18 games this season.
42. Denver kicker Matt Prater was so prolific through the postseason that, when combined with the Mile High air, the Denver Broncos’ special teams did not field a kick return all playoffs. It is expected that Percy Harvin, the league’s best kick returner in 2011 and 2012 will be healthy enough to return kickoffs this Sunday.
43. Manning has been touched only once this postseason and has not been sacked.
44. Broncos WR DeMaryius Thomas welcomes the opportunity to face All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman despite Sherman not allowing a reception this postseason as well as having the best defensive passer rating of any defensive back this season at 47.3. The second-lowest opposing passer rating was Seattle’s Byron Maxwell at 47.8.
45. Denver was 4-1 SU and ATS this season against teams with a Top-10 rushing offense. The Over is 4-1 in those games.
46. Broncos offensive line consultant Alex Gibbs was Seattle’s assistant head coach and offensive line coach in 2010 and worked with Seahawks offensive line coach Tom Cable in Atlanta in 2006.
47. The Broncos are 8-2 SU in 10 games that Peyton Manning has worn a glove this season, throwing 33 touchdowns against five interceptions.
48. Since the Broncos were tagged for 177 yards on the ground in week 15, they have allowed the opposing team to rush for 87, 64, 65, and 64 yards respectively the past four games. The Broncos are 3-1 ATS in those games and the under is 4-0.
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Super Bowl XLVIII
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for Super Bowl XLVIII:
Broncos’ slower pace vs. Seahawks’ organized chaos
Like the bachelor-turned-family man, the Broncos are trading in their sports car for a reliable mini-van. Denver has undergone a dramatic change in pace this postseason, leaving the up-tempo attack behind for a slower, more deliberate offense. That’s panned out as back-to-back Under wins in the playoffs. The Broncos’ three longest drives of the season have come against San Diego and New England, lasting 7:01, 7:50, and 7:52. They’ve dominated time of possession, hanging on to the football for over 35 minutes in both wins.
Seattle will be so jacked up on defense, the worst thing the Broncos can do to the Seahawks is take their time - kind of like that feeling when you and your lady are about to get it on, and she runs to the bathroom “for a second”. Seattle’s anxious stop unit could get lulled to sleep by Peyton Manning’s methodical playcalling, and the longer Seattle’s defense is on the field, the more worn down they’ll get.
Runnin’ Russell Wilson vs. Broncos’ dual-threat weakness
The Broncos faced a handful of mobile QBs this season and gave up some big gains for the most part. Denver allowed Terrelle Pryor to scramble for 85 yards on 13 carries in two meetings, couldn’t stop Alex Smith from rushing for 98 yards on nine attempts in their two games versus the Chiefs, watched Mike Vick tack on 41 yards on eight runs in Week 4’s win over the Eagles, and gave up 29 yards and a rushing TD on four runs to Andrew Luck in the loss to the Colts. And Denver got off the hook against a one-legged RG3 in Week 8.
Russell Wilson’s passing game has declined the past few games, completing only 58 percent of his passes and topping the 200-yard mark just twice in his last six games. But while Wilson’s arm may be a little shaky in the Super Bowl, his legs could do some serious damage to Denver. He’s rushed for 539 yards, picking up 5.6 yards per carry. He’s only added 16 yards on the ground this postseason but was the third-best rushing QB in the NFL – behind Cam Newton and Pryor – this season.
Broncos’ flag-flying offense vs. Seahawks’ over-aggressive defense
OK conspiracy theorist. This one is right in your wheelhouse. What’s better for TV: A high-scoring or low-scoring Super Bowl? And, in a season where we’ve seen an endless stream of ticky-tack calls against defenders, there’s no reason to believe Super Bowl XLVIII won’t be any different. Will Roger Goodell put the bug in the referees’ ear when it comes to keeping the points – and revenue - flowing? For the sake of the Seahawks and their backers, I hope not.
Before you sprint to the comment section to call me whatever insult this site’s filters won’t let you type, hear me out. The Broncos forced 14 pass interference calls – tied for most in the league – for 215 yards. Denver also drew nine defensive holding penalties – another NFL high - for a total of 40 free yards. The Seahawks’ aggressive defense was flagged for pass interference 13 times – tied for the most – giving up 232 yards and was whistled for holding 11 times – tied again for the most – handing opposing offenses 55 yards.
Seahawks’ home-run hitter Percy Harvin vs. Broncos’ big-play problems
Percy Harvin is one of those players who may only touch the ball a handful of times during a game, but ends up having the biggest impact on the outcome. Harvin is ready to roll after getting his eggs scrambled against the Saints in the NFC Divisional Round, his first game back from a hip injury. When healthy, the speedy WR is a game changer and can strike for big plays. The last time he faced the Broncos, as a member of the Vikings, Harvin had TD catches of 52 and 48 yards.
The Broncos defense is getting better, holding their last four opponents to 17 points or less. But that has a lot to do with Manning milking the clock and keeping opposing offenses on the sidelines. Denver’s deepest, darkest secret on defense is its susceptibility to big plays downfield. The Broncos have constantly allowed teams to convert on big gains, giving up 61 passes of 20 or more yards – ranked fifth worst in the NFL. They’ve also allowed their last three opponents to convert on 40 percent of their third downs, including allowing the Patriots to go 6 for 12 on third down.
Super Sunday!
By Jim Feist
Freeplays.com
It’s been a while! Seattle was last in the Super Bowl after the 2005 campaign while we haven’t seen Denver here since the late 1990s with some guy named John Elway behind center. Back in August the Broncos were 6-to-1 and the Seahawks 17-to-2 to win the Super Bowl, both ranked in the Top 5, so it’s the “NFL Year of the Chalk.”
We had been in a golden age for the AFC for a while, almost as if the pendulum had swung. During the 1980s and much of the 90s, the NFC dominated, winning 15 of 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row. That changed in 1998 when Denver upset Green Bay, 31-24. Since then, the AFC has won 10 of the last 16, including last year wit the Ravens, though the Saints, Packers and Giants won the previous three.
What we have in 2014 is finesse versus physical, the high flying modern QB against the old fashioned, powerhouse defense. We also have the first outdoor game in cold weather since the 1970s when the Steelers and Vikings played in 39 degree temperatures (Tulane stadium).
We’ve seen the Colts and Saints meet in the Super Bowl, the top two offensive teams, the pass-happy Patriots, and even the Arizona Cardinals wining it with Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald. But let’s face it: Defense is still King. The Giants won two titles with great defense, topping the Patriots, and last year the Ravens and 49ers were physical, punishing defenses, topping finesse teams in the conference championships. Remember that when the Packers and Steelers squared off three years ago they were ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed, so defense is still very much alive and dominating.
The Seahawks hope to continue a trend: The underdog is 9-3 ATS the last 12 Super Bowls, winning six times. Here’s a look at what to expect this weekend as America’s unofficial national holiday, the Super Bowl, kicks off.
What the Broncos want to do: If the game is an uptempo track meet, the Broncos have the best lineup on the planet with 37-year old Peyton Manning (55 TDs, 10 INTs, 5,477 yard and his record setting passing attack with WR Demaryius Thomas (1,430 yards, 14 TDs), WR Eric Decker (1,288 yards), WR Wes Welker (778) and TE Julius Thomas (788). No one has really been able to slow them down. The over is 34-16-2 in the Broncos last 52 vs. a team with a winning record.
The defense, though, has been a mixed bag, decent against the run, but suspect in the secondary. They’ve had injuries, too, losing speedy DE Von Miller and their top cornerback just two weeks ago, Chris Harris. They have been in every game with their only losses by 7, 6 and 3 points. The Broncos are 4-9 ATS on fieldturf and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
What the Seahawks want to do: Forget about any track meet. This is an old-fashioned style of team from the 1920s (or maybe the 1985 Bears) that prefers to knock the tar out of opponents from the opening kickoff through the first quarter. They are a physical, dominating defense that can stuff the run, rush the passer, and for good measure the athletic secondary is No. 1 against the pass. Even in their worst defensive game, a 34-28 loss at Indy, the defense allowed just 317 total yards and still forced 2 turnovers.
The offense does whatever is needed, a conservative group behind quiet, cerebral QB Russell Wilson (26 TDs, 9 picks, 3,357 yards), who chipped in 539 yards rushing, and power back Marshawn Lynch (1,257 yds, 4.2 ypc), a bruising back who seems to get better in the fourth quarter as defensive players tire.
Seattle is on a 34-16-1 ATS run, plus a 7-0 run under the total. The Seahawks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games on fieldturf, 13-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The last 38 years the “over” has gone 22-16 in Super Bowl play, though the under is 6-3 the last nine years.
Advantage - Seattle
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The betting public is keen on Peyton Manning and the Broncos winning the Super Bowl as short favorites. However, Seattle's top-ranked defense may have something to say about the lack of respect shown to the top-seed in the NFC. The Seahawks own the top home-field advantage in the NFL, but Seattle shocked many people with its success on the highway this season.
Pete Carroll's club won six of eight games away from CenturyLink Field, including victories over Carolina and Arizona. The Seahawks fell short by six points at Indianapolis, while losing on a late field goal at San Francisco, 19-17. Seattle covered six times on the highway, as the Seahawks' defense limited five of those opponents to 19 points or less. In nine straight games overall, the Seahawks have allowed 20 points or less, winning seven times in this stretch.
Seattle won three of four games against AFC foes, while covering twice in these contests. The Seahawks failed to cash as three-point favorites at Indianapolis, while falling short of the 12½-point number in a 20-13 home triumph over the Titans. Since last season, Seattle has won six of eight interconference contests, with the two losses coming as a three-point road favorite.
In spite of the Seahawks' numbers going down offensively of late, NFL Expert and VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson points out that the defenses they faced had something to do with it, "Seattle's offense struggled down the stretch by most measures, scoring just 22 points per game in the seven games after a Week 12 bye. In six of those seven games, the Seahawks faced a team that finished in top eight in the NFL in total defense. On the season, the Seahawks played eight games against teams that finished in the top six in the league in total defense, while Denver did not play a single one. The Broncos actually only played five games all season against teams that finished in the top 20 in the league in total defense."
Taking it a step further, Nelson says the Seahawks held their own considering their competition, "On a yards-per-play basis the numbers are just as glaring, Seattle faced a top 10 yards per play defense in half of its 18 games this season, while Denver only faced one such game all season as the record-setting numbers for the Broncos came against an incredibly weak slate of defenses. Turnovers often decide NFL games and Seattle was the best team in the league at creating turnovers, averaging 2.4 turnovers per game. The Seahawks were also one of the best teams at not giving the ball away while Denver struggled with turnovers this season with 1.6 giveaways per game and those mistakes came against much lesser defensive teams than Seattle."
VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero points to the weather as a positive for the Seahawks on Sunday, "Seattle is hoping inclement weather can join its pursuit of a championship. Not that the Seahawks are some sort of novelty act, but conditions that make it trickier on Manning and the Broncos passing game obviously favor the team with the top defense and power running game. If snow flurries accompany wind or rain, coach Carroll will undoubtedly be smiling while trying to keep warm, getting an assist from Mother Nature in cementing his game plan."
Nelson makes mention as well of Seattle's top flight passing defense as a major factor, "While the Saints wound up with 301 yards passing in the divisional playoff game with a few big plays in a late rally after Seattle built a lead, no other team topped 214 yards passing against Seattle all season long and it is certainly difficult to envision a scenario where the Broncos win without success in the air."
The Seahawks won their first two playoff games at home against the Saints and 49ers, but Seattle is no stranger to playing on the highway in the postseason. Last season, the Seahawks won at Washington as three-point favorites, before falling short in the divisional round at Atlanta, 30-28 as 2½-point underdogs. In Carroll's four postseason road games as coach of the Seahawks, they have covered three times with the lone ATS loss coming at Chicago in 2011 as 10-point 'dogs one week after shocking the Saints in the Wild Card round.
Advantage - Denver
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Following a devastating double-overtime loss to the Ravens in last season's divisional playoffs, the Broncos rebounded by winning the AFC Championship this season. Denver has put together a 28-7 record the last two seasons with Peyton Manning at the helm, as the Broncos seek their first Super Bowl title since 1998.
When many fans point to Denver's success, the first thing to highlight is the home-field advantage playing at Sports Authority Field. The Broncos won nine of 10 games at home this season, while limiting the Chargers and Patriots to a combined 33 points in two playoff victories. However, Denver put together a 6-2 record on the road this season, with the two losses coming against playoff squads New England and Indianapolis. Granted, the Broncos squandered a 24-0 lead in the loss to the Patriots, while scoring 33 points in Manning's return to the Hoosier State in a 39-33 defeat to the Colts.
The Broncos' offense put up at least 30 points in 13 games this season, including 41 points against the Giants at Met Life Stadium back in Week 2, the site of the Super Bowl. Denver won all four games against the NFC, while breaking the 40-point barrier in all four victories against the Eagles, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys.
When analyzing Manning's playoff history, the star quarterback lost his first three postseason games with the Colts from 1999-2002, but won nine of his next 16 in Indianapolis, including all four in the 2006 playoffs. In Denver, Manning has won two of three playoff contests, although he has not played on the road yet with the Broncos in the postseason.
NFL Expert and VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson has some interesting statistics that backs taking the Broncos, "The Denver offense posted record setting numbers this season, scoring over 36 points per game on the season. Those figures include two playoff games that featured lower numbers but featured the Broncos in complete control. If you take away the three games against San Diego, the one team that seemed to be able to slow Denver down, the Broncos averaged 39 points per game."
On the opposite side of the ball, Nelson breaks down how well the Broncos have performed of late, "Denver's defense does not have Seattle's overall statistical profile, but down the stretch and in the playoffs, Denver was arguably more impressive on defense. In the two playoff games, the Broncos allowed just three points combined in the first three quarters of the two games as almost all of the scoring for San Diego and New England came with the game all but in hand for the Broncos. The teams that did give the Denver defense problems were mostly strong down field passing teams, the Cowboys and Giants early in the season, the Colts, and a Patriots squad with Rob Gronkowski was some of the most productive teams against the Broncos."
VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says the reliance of Manning is key for the Broncos' success, "Denver's fortunes ride on Manning's ability to make the correct adjustments at the line of scrimmage, something he does as well as anyone in NFL history. The challenge is doing it against a Seahawks defense that flies around and feasts on turnovers, so he'll have to be conservative, riding the running game and picking his spots. If he can avoid turnovers and give the Broncos a chance to steal this late, you have to like his chances of avoiding a Colin Kaepernick-type mistake in the Super Bowl's late stages, setting himself up to win a second title."
Nelson mentions John Fox's defense has slowed opponents down on the ground, "Denver actually has featured a superior run defense to Seattle and none of the last four foes for the Broncos have topped 87 yards rushing with the two playoff opponents combining for only 129 yards rushing. If Seattle is unable to run the ball effectively, they will have little chance of keeping up with the Broncos."
Favorites of 3½ points or less in Super Bowl history have put together a strong 8-3 SU/ATS record, as the last team in this situation was Green Bay three years ago holding off Pittsburgh, 31-25 as three-point 'chalk.' Three of the last four Super Bowls played outdoors have gone to the AFC, including Pittsburgh (SB XLIII), Indianapolis (XLI), and New England (XXIX).
Advantage - Over
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Super Bowl XLVIII kicks off Sunday and the betting public is backing Denver as the short favorite over Seattle according to our Betting Trends.
The total is a little different and even though the ‘over’ is catching more tickets, you can argue both ways for this week’s matchup.
Depending where you play, you could’ve bet this number as low as 46 ½ and as high as 49 ½ points, which it spiked up to on Thursday.
As of Friday, the total is hovering around 48 points.
In this piece, I’ve listed reasons why you might lean to the ‘over.’ Along with my thoughts, I received great feedback from three handicappers on VegasInsider.com.
CD’s Angles
Denver has seen the ‘over’ go 11-8 this season, which includes a 6-2 record on the road. In those road games, the Broncos have averaged 36.3 points per game.
Since Peyton Manning arrived, the Broncos have gone 3-1 with a week of rest, two byes during the regular season and two breaks in between the playoffs. Denver has scored 34, 35, 28 and 24 points while the defense has allowed 14, 38, 20 and 17 points. The lone loss came to the Ravens (35-38) in last year’s Divisional Playoff Round.
The Broncos have only seen three totals listed below 50 this season and the ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games.
Even though Seattle has watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 on the road, the Seahawks have shown the ability to score away from home (23 PPG).
Denver saw the ‘over’ go 4-0 in its four games against the NFC, scoring 41, 52, 51 and 45 points.
Seattle saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its four games against the AFC this season.
The pair both played against the New York Giants MetLife Stadium this season and both Denver (41-23) and Seattle (23-0) came out victorious.
During the regular season, the league saw the ‘over’ go 49-15 (76.5%) this season.
Denver has played in six Super Bowls and the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in those games.
The last two meetings between the Broncos and Seahawks both went ‘over’ albeit in the preseason. I understand some might not weigh those numbers heavily but check out these stats.
Russell Wilson – 18-of-29 (62%) 282 yards, 4 TDs
Peyton Manning – 27-of-39 (69%) 340 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
I know some might dismiss these number but both games were in Week 2 of the preseason and each quarterback showed that they could move the ball. Wilson’s numbers could be a tad misleading because he backed up Matt Flynn in 2012 and faced weaker defensive players. However, he was 8-of-12 for 127 yards and two touchdowns this August.
Expert Angles
Paul Bovi
For those that side with the over, that weather forecast surely bodes well for the high side of 47 given the likelihood of a negligible effect, if any at all, upon the ability to throw the football as well as kicking field goals into the crisp Jersey air. The case could easily be made for Denver's record breaking scoring average of 37.9 points per game and the multitude of weapons at Peyton Manning's disposal that are poised to overwhelm the league leading Seahawk defense, Richard Sherman and all, or so they would say. The third year player out of Stanford, who has garnered a great deal of attention in the aftermath of his postgame NFC Championship rant and was the leading vote getter for this year's Pro Bowl, picked off 8 passes in 2013 and is known to be a lock down corner and a ferocious tackler. That said, over bettors will undoubtedly cite Manning's ability to find the open receiver amongst his many targets and for the most part, avoid Sherman.
The other side of the ball features the notably inconsistent Seahawk offense taking on a Denver defense that has fielded more than its’ fair share of criticism this year, particularly against the pass, where they ranked 27th in the league and allowed a NFL game leading 506 yards to Dallas quarterback Tony Romo. During the first 14 games of the regular season, the Bronco defense was able to hold only two teams to less than 20 points, that the Jacksonville Jaguars who tallied 19, and the Kansas City Chiefs who managed only 17 in a 10-point loss to Denver on Nov. 17.In the AFC Championship two weeks ago, the Broncos held New England to a mere 16 points in their 10- point win, missed opportunities were the order of the day for the Pats as QB Tom Brady overthrew both Matthew Slater and Julian Edelman on what well could have been scoring plays. Returning to the Seahawk lineup will be Percy Harvin, who has been out with a concussion and managed to be in the lineup for all of 40 snaps this season. Assuming Harvin, who has been practicing at full speed all week, plays and does so effectively, he will undoubtedly elevate a mediocre Seahawk receiving corps into a formidable one as he combines with Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin to form a dangerous trio along with jump-ball specialist WR Jermaine Kearse and TE Zach Miller. In their 23-15 playoff win over the Saints, QB Russell Wilson completed 8 of 11 passes for 92 yards while Harvin was in the lineup and only 1-of-7 after his departure. Coincidence? You decide.
Mike Rose
You should bet the OVER Because it’s the last game of the year and the NFL must close out the season with a bang….right? On a more serious note, there wasn’t an offense in the league better than the AFC champion Denver Broncos at moving the pigskin and putting points on the scoreboard. They punched their ticket to Super Bowl XLVIII by gouging the opposition with an average of 457.3 YPG and turned all those yards into 37.9 PPG. Peyton Manning and his gifted wide receiver corps averaged better than 8.0 yards per pass, and #18 already went into MetLife back in Week 2 and had one of his better games of the season in throwing for 307 yards and 2 TDs. Seattle also paid a visit to frigid East Rutherford this season and spanked the Giants 23-0 in Week 15, so they too are familiar with how MetLife plays in terms of the weather conditions. On top of possessing one of the most dominant defenses ever witnessed in the modern era of the NFL that routinely forces turnovers, the Seahawks also happen to boast one of the more unforgiving ground attacks that saw it rush for an average of 136.8 YPG (#4) with Marshawn Lynch leading the charge. Denver’s defense did a solid job limiting the run in both of its playoff wins, but it’s yet to run up against a running back cut from the excelled cloth of Beast Mode. The league’s top two field goal kickers in Prater & Hauschka competing against one another can only help over bettors provided Mother Nature doesn’t wreak havoc.
Joe Nelson
While the Super Bowls of the 1980s and 1990s featured a heavy lean to the ‘over’ the trend has flipped with six of the last nine Super Bowls playing ‘under’. Three of the last six Super Bowls have featured a total in the 50s and this year’s game currently features a total lower than 14 of the last 25 Super Bowls despite this game featuring two teams that are in the top eight in the league in scoring offense. The Broncos were the highest scoring regular season team in NFL history and if you take away the seven games against division rivals this is a Broncos team that averaged 41 points per game. In the four games against NFC teams Denver actually scored over 47 points per game on average. Seattle was statistically the best defense in the NFL this season by most measures but Seattle did play eight games against teams in the bottom 10 of the NFL in yards per play offense and the Seahawks only played three games against the NFL’s top 10 yards per play teams. The Seattle offense was much better than it often gets credit for as well as the Seahawks has scored almost 26 points per game this season despite playing 13 games against the top 15 teams in the league in total defense. The Seahawks actually played eight games this season against teams that finished in the top six in the NFL in total defense. By most measures Denver was a very average defense this season and while the Broncos have been sharp defensively in the playoffs the lower scoring games in the run to the Super Bowl has pushed this total to the lowest number in any Broncos game all season. The average total in a Denver game this season was 54 so there is almost an entire touchdown taken off with respect for Seattle’s defense. Weather is a valid concern for what should be the coldest Super Bowl ever but weather is often over compensated for in NFL games as the field will be meticulously cared for given the huge stage and the players have advanced equipment suitable for all conditions.