Advantage - Under
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
In our first SB XLVIII total piece, we provided you plenty of reasons why you should bet the ‘over’ on Sunday. For this column, we’ll turn our attention to the ‘under.’
Listed below are my quick thoughts, plus we have some great analysis from three handicappers on VegasInsider.com as well!
CD’s Angles
The ‘over’ went 127-107-2 (54%) during the regular season. However, the ‘under’ has gone 8-2 (80%) in the playoffs.
Even though Denver has leaned to the ‘over’ (11-7) this season, the ‘under’ has cashed in its last five games behind a defense that has only surrendered 17.4 PPG during this span.
The Seahawks have watched the ‘under’ go 12-6 (67%) this season and that includes a current run of seven straight ‘under’ tickets.
On the road, Seattle watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 but make a note that the three ‘over’ tickets came in games played indoors against Houston (23-20), Indianapolis (28-34) and Arizona (34-22). Plus, the game against the Texans went to overtime due to a late Houston collapse.
Since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle, the team has gone 3-2 with rest and that includes this year’s 23-15 victory over New Orleans in the Divisional Playoffs. Including the result against the Saints, the ‘Hawks have allowed an average of 14.4 points per game with time to prepare.
Seattle has only had one appearance in the Super Bowl, which came in 2006. The Seahawks lost 21-10 to the Steelers and the combined 31 points never threatened the closing total of 47.
Peyton Manning has played in two Super Bowls and both games went ‘under’ the number.
2007 – Indianapolis 29 Chicago 17 (UNDER 47)
2010 – Indianapolis 17 New Orleans 31 (UNDER 57)
Six of the last nine Super Bowls have stayed ‘under.’ Keep in mind that the ‘over’ and ‘under’ has alternated for the past six Super Bowls. Baltimore defeated San Francisco 34-31 in last year’s matchup, which was an easy ‘over’ ticket. If you believe this trend will hold, then the ‘under’ is due on Sunday.
Expert’s Angles
Joe Nelson
The record setting Denver offense certainly deserves some respect but who exactly did the Broncos have to play this season? Denver only played one game all season against a defense that finished the season in the top 11 of the league in yards per play defense. Eight of the 18 games for the Broncos came against a team in the bottom eight of the league in that measure. Thirteen of the 18 games for Denver came against teams ranking in the bottom 12 of the NFL in total defense as well.
Seattle was the ranked first in total defense this season by almost 20 yards per game as well as being the No. 1 scoring defense and the No. 1 yards per play defense. This is a historically great defense especially compared with the upward scoring of the league in general this season. The most passing yards against the Seahawks in the regular season was just 214 yards, the Saints did eclipse that mark in the divisional round of the playoffs but New Orleans did not score a single point through three quarters in that game, posting a total of 156 yards through its first eight possessions before getting a few late scores.
While the Seattle defense will get most of the attention, Denver has allowed just 15 points per game in the last four games despite some notable injuries. The scoring against Denver is also inflated with 30 of 33 points allowed in the two playoff games coming in the fourth quarter. Denver is currently the fourth best rush defense in the NFL in yards per game allowed, holding foes to less than 98 yards per game, on just 3.9 yards per carry, both figures that best the great Seattle defense against the run.
This matchup should play out favorably for both defenses as Seattle’s great rush offense will face a very good rush defense and the great passing game for Denver will deal with a great Seattle pass defense. Seattle has also been top takeaway team in the league, averaging 2.4 turnovers created per game and with this high number even one missed scoring opportunity could disrupt the scoring pace significantly. Add in a chance of poor weather and the added pressure and attention of this big game for two teams that were much better performers at home and it is easy to see this game unfolding as a lower scoring affair.
Paul Bovi
Under bettors will likely have to rely on the defenses to provide sufficient resistance so as to keep the scoring at a premium. Those favoring the low side of the number will undoubtedly point to Denver's resurgent defense which has held the opposition to an average of 15 points per game over their last four encounters, the latter two regular season games along with two playoff wins over San Diego and New England. While the Broncos lost CB Chris Harris and LB Von Miller to injury, the return of veteran CB Champ Bailey could very well help bolster their much maligned stop unit. Facing that defense is a Seahawks' offense which has been ordinary at best of late, having averaged only 22 points in its last five contests. In their two playoff wins that generated 23 points apiece, Seattle totaled an anemic 585 yards.
Mike Rose
The Seahawks were an under bettor’s best friend with it owning the league’s top-ranked points and total yardage allowed defenses. In all, Seattle played to low scorers in 10 of its 16 overall regular season games as well as in each playoff contest. Their games averaged a grand total of 40.3 PPG. Though Denver was largely an over team throughout a bulk of the 2013-14 season, it enters Super Bowl XLVIII having played to low scorers in five straight with the defense allowing just one of those opponents to tally 20-plus points. It just held quarterback Tom Brady and the Patriots vaunted offense to 16 points and did it by completely shutting down running back LeGarrette Blount and company on the ground. If they’re able to limit Beast Mode as well, it will force head coach Pete Carroll to look to his less efficient passing game. If “Mother Nature” somehow plays a role in this contest, blustery conditions could also prevent both Matt Prater and Steven Hauschka from continuing to be the money kickers they were up to this point. Keeping numerous 3-spots off the board can only be beneficial to under bettors. The weather factor could also only force both teams to continue looking to the ground. With that the case, the clock becomes an ally of those expecting a low score with it tick, tick, ticking away.
Old School vs. New School
By Mike Muzyka 01/30/2014
Playbook.com
From a historical perspective, there are several noteworthy storylines that are part of Super Bowl XLVIII or "SB 48" for future reference. First, the weather may very well have an impact in some capacity on the outcome of the game. "Whether" or not the above mentioned "weather" factor will be significant could depend on anticipated snowfall, lack thereof, mid 30 degree temperature forecast and potential wind at MetLife Stadium. Commentary is provided for those football "fans" who are interested in totals and the projected total points scored in games. Although SB 48 won't be the first played outdoors, and also with potentially inclement / cold weather, it will be the first Super Bowl to be played in the modern era of high priced tickets where luxury and bragging ability come at a steep price and may offset the positive feelings and overtones of "old style" football played in "real football" type conditions.
Second, we have subtle "game within game" topics to discuss. Peyton Manning will lead his "second" team to his "third" Super Bowl. Manning can possibly put an end to, or at least minimize, commentary from all of his doubters that he is only "one of the best regular season QB's" of alltime when compared to other QB legends and Hall of Famers. Peyton, with a second Super Bowl title, can effectively stop all or most commentary that is raised time and time again about his inability to perform well and win in a cold weather climate setting. Speaking of QB's, SB 48 will have the biggest disparity ever, in differences of age, between the two starting Super Bowl QB's. Peyton Manning, at 37 years of age, represents the "Old School" train of thought on how the QB position should be played. Russell Wilson, twelve years Peyton's junior, represents the "New School" train of thought that highlights the athleticism of modern QB's. Either way, each QB has had a positive impact upon his team and presents a challenge to opposing defenses for different reasons. Your decision to go with experience or youthful enthusiasm very well can be supported by the "experience", "passion" and "business acumen" of top rated professional (NFL) handicappers. Certainly, I would relish the opportunity to assist football fans of all types with providing the best available insight and prediction to the outcome of SB 48.
Speaking of disparity among ages, or in this case, Denver's head coach (John Fox) will be revisiting the Super Bowl, in the same capacity, for the first time in 10 years. John Fox, in SB 38, lost to New England in an exciting manner and by the score of 32-29. Incidentally, there are only two other modern era head coaches who lost their first Super Bowl appearance, made it back to the "Big Show" 10 or more years after their initial loss and then went on to claim a victory in the Super Bowl in their second appearance. These coaches are Pittsburgh's Bill Cowher and Dick Vermeil who won his Super Bowl as head coach of the St. Louis Rams after having lost when he was head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. Cowher relied upon both RB Jerome "The Bus" Bettis and QB "Big Ben" Roethslisberger to guide a balanced offense by mixing effective power running and clutch passing in his Super Bowl victory as Pittsburgh's head coach. Vermeil and his "Greatest Show on Turf" potent offense also was well balanced and was lead by QB Kurt Warner and Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk. One can make an argument that Denver's record setting offense is also well balanced even though Peyton Manning obliterated several all time "passing" records this season. Knowshon Moreno, Denver's starting RB, rushed for over a 1,000 yards this season and had double digit TD's too (13 total). Manning also has access to a plethora of solid and productive WR's to keep opposing defenses on their respective heels. These receivers (Thomas, Decker and Welker) and Denver's TE (Thomas) present matchup problems to the opposition. Each receiver can go the distance, or pick up huge gains, by converting short, intermediate crossing route patterns that Peyton executes very effectively.
It is obvious that Peyton Manning represents "Old School" mentality. Manning is cerebral, studies the opposition for tendencies to take advantage of and is the classic drop back, pocket passer. The results of Peyton's preparation and play has lead to record setting regular season statistics this season. Manning had almost surreal passing performances and set passing yardage and TD (55) records while leading the Denver Broncos to the number one playoff seed and league best 13-3 record (matched by Seattle this season). However, the stigma associated with Manning is his 11-11 overall playoff record. Incidentally, and from a recent historical perspective, the two teams finished the 2005 season with identical 13-3 records. The 2005 season also represents the only time the Seattle Seahawks appeared in a Super Bowl (having lost 21-10 to the Pittsburgh Steelers). In addition, the Seahawks were minimal underdogs (4.5 points), in SB 40, with the game going (Under) the total points scored line (47 points). Ironically, Seattle finds itself in the underdog role again (2.5 points at time of publication) with the same Over and Under total (47) points scored line as they did 8 years ago. Therefore, will we see a continuance of Peyton not delivering in the playoffs or Seattle repeating their previous Super Bowl performance? Can Peyton pull it off and win a second SB or will Seattle ride to victory on the back of "Beast Mode" and their top ranked league defense as so many past teams have done in past Super Bowls?
Another area to visit is the style and team composition or makeup / philosophy of Denver and Seattle. This Super Bowl represents the leagues two top ranked teams with respect to offense and defense. Denver's number one ranked offense battles Seattle's number one ranked defense. The only other time both top ranked teams squared off, in the Super Bowl, was the Tampa Bay / Oakland blowout in 2002. We can only wonder what happens when, using an old saying, "an irresistible force meets an immovable object" and referencing these two top teams in their respective categories and strengths. Another cliche comparison that could apply, to this game, is "offense fills seats and wins regular season games" while "defense wins Championships". There may be more truth to the above statement(s) than one might initially think. 18 teams, with the top ranked offense, have made it to the Super Bowl with 10 teams prevailing as winners of the "Big Show". However, 15 teams have gone to the Super Bowl with the top ranked defense and also sport a 12-3 winning record. Seattle's defense is dominant and has played well in both the regular season and two (home) playoff games. Not too many negative items to mention with this bunch. Denver's defense represents somewhat of an interesting and perplexing overall observation. The Broncos defense was somewhat average during the regular season and ranked 19th (overall) in yards allowed, per game, while also yielding 25 points per contest. It's relevant to mention that Denver and Seattle tied for a 7th ranking in rushing yards (102) allowed per game. This statistic should be noted and certainly might alter one or both team offensive game plans. Let's face it, the Seahawks typically win or lose games based upon the performance of Pro Bowl RB Marshawn Lynch with all due respect to their punishing and stingy defense. However, it would be foolish to think that Seattle can just come out and play smash mouth football in an attempt to wear down Denver and utilize a clock management strategy to keep the ball out of 5 time (soon to be) league MVP – Peyton Manning. The reason, Denver recently has exhibited a stout defense lead by defensive (nose) tackle Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton. In fact, Denver's defense has risen to the occasion and played solid in back to back home playoff games vs. San Diego and New England. Neither the Chargers nor Patriots scored a TD in the first three quarters of their respective playoff games, Divisional and AFC Championship, against Denver. Additionally, both teams scored a total of "3 combined points", through three quarters, against a "Pot Roast" lead defense sans Pro Bowl LB Von Miller and Denver's top shut down cornerback. The Broncos defense seems to be peaking at the right time and similar to the much maligned Indianapolis Colts defense, in 2006, when the Colts won the Super Bowl XLI played against the Chicago Bears.
Seattle's defense might actually thrive against Denver's potent passing "quack" attack. Peyton Manning has only attempted "7" passes, of 20 or more yards, during postseason play. Additionally, Seattle's All World, All Everything CB – Richard Sherman will look to back up his recent commentary and observation regarding Peyton Manning and how he throws "Ducks" out on the field. Always one to compliment, Sherman did add that Peyton is an intelligent QB who is very accurate and on time with his throws. The "Legion of Boom" will be looking to "lower the boom" on Peyton and spoil his (Disney World?) parade. Seattle's starting and substitute defensive linemen will look to apply pressure, on Manning, in hopes of causing a sack or turnover. Manning, on the other hand, will try to counter with short to intermediate routes and pick apart the league's number one secondary if they make little or no adjustments to pre and post snap positions and responsibilities. Seattle's defense typically makes few changes to their pre snap alignment and dares the opposition to beat them straight up. The Seahawks defenders are that confident and that successful as evident by their top league ranking. Peyton looks to take advantage of mismatches and will try to test the waters by possibly relying on more of a run based attack. Essentially, there are several scenarios that can cause uncertainty amongst the avid football fan who likes to take part in recreational and fun loving football activities. MJM Sportsline / Magic Mike is more than capable of helping you sort through all of the "hoopla", overwhelming statistical data and meaningless media propaganda that tends to influence those individuals who don't have a trusted money manager and professional handicapper on their side. I want to be on your side and I also want you to join me on the "winning side" of this Super Bowl play(s)!
To summarize, we will most likely get to enjoy one of the better Super Bowl games in recent memory (similar to the Pittsburgh Steelers / Arizona Cardinals thriller in Tampa?) as the NFL's top ranked offense does battle with the league's top ranked defense. Football fans should have a good blend of "old school" tactics (i.e. Peyton Manning who represents the classic "old style" pocket, drop back passers of years ago and Seattle's "old school' offensive / defensive approach, and game plan, to rush the football and play stout defense. The "new school" train of thought and tactic will focus on Seattle's athletic, but inexperienced QB (Russell Wilson) trying to outwit, outperform and even out produce Denver's All Pro QB and wunderkind (Peyton Manning) and his "new style" approach to winning football games via the pass. Look for an exciting game that just might come down to the wire, and possibly even the last play, to decide Super Bowl XLVIII's winning team.
SBXLVIII - Prop Predictions
VegasInsider.com
According to Jay Kornegay, Vice President of Race & Sports at the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino, proposition wagers will account for 55-60% of their handle on Super Bowl XLVIII.
Kornegay and his staff at the LVH have outdone themselves again this year with hundreds of props available for the betting public.
Similar to past Super Bowls, we chose 10 of the most popular props for this year’s matchup and asked seven of our analysts to make a prediction.
1) Which player will score the 1st Touchdown?
Antony Dinero: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
Brian Edwards: Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Chris David: Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Joe Nelson: Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (15/1)
Kevin Rogers: Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Mike Rose: Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Sheldon Frank: Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (10/1)
Consensus: Eric Decker & Julius Thomas
Quick Thoughts – Brian Edwards: I like the props that have big payouts. I want the majority of my bankroll to be on the side or total, and then I like to make small plays on the props that have nice payouts. For instance, the player to score the first touchdowns. I've hit this twice in recent years, nailing Devin Hester on the opening kickoff at 25/1 odds in the Bears' loss to the Colts and Peyton Manning. And I hit Anquan Boldin last season at 12/1 odds. This year there are four quality options in my opinion. Denver TE Jacob Tamme caught the first TD against the Pats in the AFC title game, and he's available at 18/1 odds. Denver WRs Wes Welker and Eric Decker are at 10/1, while Seattle WR and special-teams ace Percy Harvin is at 12/1. I'll go with Decker (10/1).
2) Will either team score three straight times? YES (-175) NO (+155)
Antony Dinero: NO
Brian Edwards: NO
Chris David: YES
Joe Nelson: YES
Kevin Rogers: NO
Mike Rose: NO
Sheldon Frank: YES
Consensus: NO
Quick Thoughts – Joe Nelson: This is always a tricky prop as scoring three straight times sounds less likely than it actually is. ‘Yes’ would have hit in 14 of 18 Seattle games this season including each of the last five games and only once all season in 18 games did Denver or Denver’s opponent fail to score three consecutive times.
3) Will Peyton Manning throw an Interception? YES (-200) NO (+175)
Antony Dinero: YES
Brian Edwards: YES
Chris David: NO
Joe Nelson: NO
Kevin Rogers: NO
Mike Rose: YES
Sheldon Frank: YES
Consensus: YES
Quick Thoughts – Kevin Rogers: Peyton Manning has thrown just 11 interceptions in 18 games this season. Three of those interceptions came in a Week 8 over Washington, so his ill-advised throws are few and far between. We know about all of the publicity Richard Sherman has received recently and Manning will not force throws to his side of the field. The return is excellent on this prop, as I’ll take the shot with Manning not tossing a pick on Sunday.
Quick Thoughts – Mike Rose: The Seahawks picked off a league best 20 passes in the regular season and added two more in the NFC championship game. Only four games were played to entirety without the Seahawks intercepting at least one pass, and two of those games came against cagey veteran Drew Brees. While Peyton Manning is cut from the same cloth as the Saints field general, he is well known for coming up short in the biggest of games and this one going on Sunday doesn’t get any bigger. This Seahawks defense is relentless and has no problem talking the talk, but unlike most mouthpieces, they also walk the walk. Richard Sherman and his mates will make it extremely tough for #18 to find much breathing room, and that will force him to try and squeeze the pigskin into tight places on a couple of occasions. I foresee at least one of those instances leading directly to an interception leading to a mopey Manning on the sideline furiously breaking down the printed footage on the sideline with his OC.
4) Total Field Goals Made by both teams. OVER 3.5 (+130) UNDER 3.5 (-150)
Antony Dinero: OVER
Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER
Consensus: OVER
5) Total Touchdowns Scored by both teams. OVER 5.5 (+120) UNDER 5.5 (-140)
Antony Dinero: UNDER
Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: OVER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: UNDER
Consensus: UNDER
6) Total Completions by Russell Wilson. OVER 16.5 (-110) UNDER 16.5 (-110)
Antony Dinero: OVER
Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: OVER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER
Consensus: OVER
Quick Thoughts – Joe Nelson: Wilson had 16 or fewer completions in five of the last six games but in the five games in which he was held below that figure down the stretch he faced a team that finished in the top 8 of the NFL in total defenses. Denver has a great run defense but the pass defense has been shaky at times, an area made worse with recent injuries. Look for Seattle to work in some easy throws early to get the young quarterback comfortable on the big stage. Denver allowed over 22 completions to opponents per game this season with only two foes all season held below 18 and the priority for the Broncos should be stopping the run which could open up opportunities in the air.
7) Longest Rush by Marshawn Lynch. OVER 17.5 (-110) UNDER 17.5 (-110)
Antony Dinero: OVER
Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER
Consensus: OVER
8) Total Gross Passing Yards by Peyton Manning. OVER 286.5 (-110) UNDER 286.5 (-110)
Antony Dinero: UNDER
Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: OVER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Mike Rose: OVER
Sheldon Frank: OVER
Consensus: UNDER
Quick Thoughts – Joe Nelson: In the playoffs, New Orleans QB Drew Brees threw for 309 yards against Seattle but that was the only time all season a quarterback came close to this figure and most of those yards came in garbage time as Seattle mostly had the game in hand until the dicey few minutes.
9) Most Rushing Yards – Marshawn Lynch -30.5 (-110) vs. Knowshon Moreno +30.5 (-110)
Antony Dinero: Knowshon Moreno
Brian Edwards: Marshawn Lynch
Chris David: Marshawn Lynch
Joe Nelson: Knowshon Moreno
Kevin Rogers: Knowshon Moreno
Mike Rose: Knowshon Moreno
Sheldon Frank: Marshawn Lynch
Consensus: Knowshon Moreno
Quick Thoughts – Sheldon Frank: When you think of the Seahawk offense, you think of running back Marshawn Lynch. Yes, there are plays when Russell Wilson buys time by scrambling and then hits a receiver deep but when the Seahawks want to make a statement, they hand the ball to No. 24. Knowshon Moreno gashes teams when they're geared to stop the Broncos' passing game. Beast Mode is the more talented and more durable running back and is at the heart of what Seattle does offensively. Go with Marshawn Lynch to out-gain Knowshon Moreno on the ground by at least 31 yards because he's, "all about the action, Boss!"
10) Will Richard Sherman intercept a pass? YES (+210) NO (-250)
Antony Dinero: NO
Brian Edwards: YES
Chris David: NO
Joe Nelson: NO
Kevin Rogers: NO
Mike Rose: YES
Sheldon Frank: NO
Consensus: NO
NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Super Bowl XLVIII matchup features the top-ranked high-octane offense of the Denver Broncos gaining 457.3 yards/game scoring a league best 37.9 points/game against the top-ranked defense of the Seattle Seahawks surrendering 273.6 yards/game while allowing a league-low 14.4 per/contest. Broncos are 11-6-1 ATS to this point with a winning margin of 12.4 PPG, 5-3 ATS on the road. The Seahawks are 12-6 ATS winning by an average 11.1 PPG, 6-2 ATS away from home. 'Rest' assured Denver has an edge. In Broncos 13 previous games with a week of rest they're 10-3 ATS, Seahawks are 3-10-1 ATS last 14 with added shut-eye. The last nine Super Bowls that have gone off with spreads of 3.5 or less the favorite is 5-3 SU/ATS. Broncos guided by Manning are 9-2 ATS when spotting less than a touchdown. Other notable betting nuggets for Super Bowl XLVIII. The NFC has controlled the last 25 Super Bowls, going 15-10 SU but factor in the great equalizer they're just 9-15-1 against-the-spread. The past 15 Super Bowls it's the AFC holding the upper hand at 9-6 (6-8-1 ATS) but recent trends show the NFC has a slight 3-2 SU edge the past five Super Bowls with a sparkling 4-1 mark against the betting line. Backing underdogs the past 15 Super Bowls had you at the cash window cashing ten tickets (10-4-1 ATS) including 6-3 ATS with an NFC squad. The O/U is 6-9 past 15 Big-Games with an average combined score of 49.9.
Super Bowl XLVIII Betting: Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Covers.com
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-2, 48)
Peyton Manning has commanded center stage from the moment he was taken with the top overall draft pick in 1998 and the spotlight will never be brighter than when he leads the Denver Broncos against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday night at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium.
Manning put together the finest season by a quarterback in NFL history - shattering records for touchdowns and yards - and a victory could settle the debate of whether he is the greatest quarterback of all time. Conversely, a loss by the Broncos will drop the league's only four-time (and soon to be five) MVP below .500 in the postseason and 1-2 in Super Bowls to bolster the argument by his detractors that he continually comes up short in the big game.
Who's No. 1? It is the quintessential matchup, pitting the Broncos' top-ranked offense against Seattle's league-best defense, marking only the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the NFL's highest-scoring team (Denver, 606 points) squared off against an opponent that surrendered the fewest points (Seattle, 231).
“We wouldn’t have it any other way,” bombastic Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman said. “They’re an unbelievable record-setting offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback. That’s as tough as it gets. The No. 1 defense against the No. 1 offense.” It is also only the second time in 20 seasons that the No. 1 seeds in each conference reached the Super Bowl - the last coming when Manning's Indianapolis Colts lost to New Orleans in Super Bowl XLIV four years ago.
The first outdoor cold-weather Super Bowl - and the potential for playing in a blizzard - caused a lot of teeth-gnashing leading up to the game, but conditions are expected to be relatively benign with temperatures in the mid-30s and light winds. That's a huge plus for Manning and a Broncos' offense that features an unprecedented five players to have scored at least 10 touchdowns.
“We’ve spread the ball around so well all season, so it’s hard for teams to know who to key on,” said Manning, who was held to a season-low 150 yards passing in bitter cold and high winds at New England in late November. Seattle has built a legendary home-field advantage at CenturyLink Field but like Denver, has already played at MetLife this season. The Seahawks blanked the New York Giants 23-0 on Dec. 15 while the Broncos scored 31 second-half points in a 41-23 victory over the Giants on Sept. 15.
Looking for more betting info on Super Bowl XLVIII? Here are our 48 betting notes for betting Super Bowl XLVIII.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low 40s, above freezing with a 23 percent chance of rain turning to ice pellets in the fourth quarter. Winds are expected to blow NNW from corner to corner at MetLife Stadium at speeds of 4-6 mph.
LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at a pick'em and immediately drew action on the Broncos, pumping the spread as high as Denver -3.5. Seahawks money came back and bought the underdog, trimming this line down to -2. The total opened 47.5 and was bet down to 47 with the extended forecast calling for bad weather in East Rutherford. However, with the weather clearing up, action on the Over has drive the number as high as 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.3) - Broncos (-7.0) = Seahawks -0.3
KEY INJURIES: Seattle: Jordan Hill DT (Prob. - Groin), Percy Harvin WR (Prob. - Concussion), Doug Baldwin WR (Prob. - Hip), Brandon Browner (Out - Suspension). Denver: Mitch Unrein DT (Prob. - Knee), Knowshon Moreno (Prob. - Ribs), Tony Carter CB (Prob. - Arm), Matt Prater (Prob. Illness), Sione Fua (Ques. - Calf).
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "If we don't start seeing more Seahawks money we might, might have to get to Denver -3. Personally, I don't want that to happen but everyone is in love with the Broncos and with the early weather reports calling for a decent day in Jersey, getting to -3 isn't out of the question. At this point, it might be the only way to see some Seahawks money but it really will expose us to getting sided on the biggest game of the year. Going to -3 and then this game landing three, I'll be looking for work come Monday." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Looks like line will not hit key number of +3. Has already dropped from +2.5 to +2 at many sportsbooks. Surprisingly, the O/U line has come back down from 48.5 to 48, however, I think the public will push this higher on Sunday. If a +3 does show on Sunday with more public money on Denver, I believe it will quickly disappear with Seahawks money at +3. Line will likely close around +2 like it is now." - Steve Merril.
WHY BET SEATTLE (15-3 SU, 12-6-0 ATS, 6-12 O/U): Aside from allowing 14.4 points per game, Seattle surrendered the fewest total yards and passing yards while leading the league in takeaways (39) and interceptions (28), including a league-best eight by Sherman. Quarterback Russell Wilson tied Ben Roethlisberger for the second-most wins (27) in his first two seasons but he did not throw for more than one touchdown or 215 yards in his past six games.
One of the reasons is bullish running back Marshawn Lynch, who has gone over 100 yards four times in six postseason games and rushed for 249 yards and three TDs in the Seahawks' playoff wins over New Orleans and San Francisco. Wilson will also get back a big weapon in wideout Percy Harvin, who played in only one game during the regular season after recovering from hip surgery and suffered a concussion in the victory over New Orleans that caused him to miss the next contest.
WHY BET DENVER (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 11-7 O/U): Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are only the second tandem with more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Add in Wes Welker (87 catches, 10 TDs) and tight end Julius Thomas (65 catches, 12 TDs) along with 1,000-yard rusher Knowshon Moreno and it's not hard to see why Manning threw for 55 scores and 5,477 yards - both NFL single-season records.
Denver's high-powered offense overshadowed a much-maligned defense that has made enormous strides and yielded an average of 14 points over the past four games since a 27-20 home loss to San Diego on Dec. 12. "We kind of made a pact after the San Diego loss," said Broncos coach John Fox, the sixth coach to lead two different teams to a Super Bowl. "Basically, everybody made a pact that we're going to be the best we can be these last five games. We've gone through four of them; we've got one remaining."
SUPER BOWL TRENDS:
* The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.
* This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has beat offense three of the four previous meetings. In addition, teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls. However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.
* The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.
* The big story in the world of NFL totals this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the Over.
CONSENSUS PICKS: 66 percent of bets on Broncos (-2), 51 percent on Over 48.
Super Bowl XLVIII
Denver/Seattle were AFC West rivals up until 2001, when Seahawks moved to the NFC. Seattle’s first-ever playoff win was 31-7 over the Broncos in the Kingdome in 1983, John Elway’s rookie year. Teams have met only three times since Seattle switched conferences, with Denver winning two of three, last of which was 31-14 Bronco win at Mile High in 2010—that also means the teams meet again next season, in the Thursday night season opener, maybe?
None of that matters here; what matters is what the weather is expected to come up better Sunday night than its been all winter in New Jersey, which favors Denver’s passing game. Broncos scored 41 ppg in winning two of three games on artificial turf this season (at Giants-Cowboys-Patriots). Seattle plays its home games on carpet. Both teams beat the Giants in this stadium this season. If they gave an over/under figure to bet on for TV ratings, I’d take the over. Lot of people are interested in this game.
Denver’s coach/QB have been in Super Bowls before, Manning has obviously won one. Seattle doesn’t have one player who has been in a Super Bowl; they have to guard against being too hyped up for the game, which you read has been a problem in previous Super Bowls. Manning spreads ball out so well, it is difficult for great Seattle defense to focus on stopping 1-2 guys, like Crabtree/Boldin with the 49ers.
This is only second time in last 20 years both #1 seeds got to this point. Underdogs covered five of last six Super Bowls, won four of six SU.
Seattle’s offense has not been as good away from home; they’re a bully team, trying to run ball down your throat. If Denver can contain the run and force Wilson to make plays to win the game, doubtful he can do it. I think the Broncos will win the game, something like 31-16.
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