Super Trends for Miami
By Chris David
Even though the Sportsbooks in Nevada turned a profit last year on Super Bowl XLIII between Pittsburgh and Arizona, the $81 million wagered was the biggest drop since the stat started tracking the Betting Handle in 1991. With only one game left, the books are hoping to have an increase and get back into the $90 million range, which is what the previous four Super Bowls accounted for.
This year’s pro football season concludes with Super Bowl XLIV on Feb. 7, 2007 from Sun Life Stadium in Miami, Florida when Indianapolis and New Orleans clash in the finale. Ironically, the Colts' fourth trip to the league’s finale will be in the same exact venue as the previous three visits, South Florida. The franchise has gone 2-1 in those first three battles from Miami.
While the games within the games will be broken down in detail over the next 10 days, gamblers can point to 43 years of trends that may or may not sway your opinion for the Super Bowl.
So, without further adieu, let’s take a closer look at some numbers for the big game.
Rough Debut
There have been nine teams that have made exactly one trip to the Super Bowl, and New Orleans will be the 10th to join this group. Of those clubs, only the N.Y. Jets, Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been able to notch a victory in its first ever Super Bowl.
Can the Saints push that number to 4-6? Even though Tampa Bay represented the NFC South well with its dominating 48-21 win in Super Bowl XXXVII over Oakland, Carolina and Atlanta failed to win in their only chances for the division. Total players might want to make a note that all three of those teams saw the ‘over’ cash in their Super Bowl debuts.
Perfect 10
The matchup between the Colts and Saints will be the 10th Super Bowl played in Miami. Fans from New Orleans might not want to hear it but South Beach has been all about the ‘chalk.’ Favorites have won eight of the nine games straight up, yet the lone upset was the biggest of all-time when New York stunned Baltimore 16-7 in the third installment of the big game as an 18-point underdog.
As far as point-spread numbers go, the favorites haven’t had much trouble covering as well, posting a 6-3 mark versus the spread. Some gamblers may’ve earned a push or a win in 1979, when the Steelers stopped the Cowboys 35-31 as 3 ½-point favorites in Super Bowl XIII. The number on the game opened at 1 ½ points and was bet up to 5 at some shops, and all the books in Las Vegas got middled. This big game is often referred to as Black Sunday in the gaming industry since the Sportsbooks lost quite a chunk.
The ‘over’ has gone 5-4 in the nine games played in Miami but could easily be 6-3 if the Colts and Bears didn’t play in a rainstorm three years ago in Super Bowl XLI. Indy defeated Chicago 29-17 and the closing number was 47.
Sunshine State
Including the nine aforementioned games played in Miami, this will be the 15th Super Bowl played in the state of Florida. Four games have been played in Tampa Bay, and the underdog has gone 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in those contests, which includes Pittsburgh’s 27-23 victory over Arizona last year.
Super Bowl XXXIX was played in Jacksonville, which saw New England capture its third championship with a 24-21 victory over Philadelphia. The Eagles covered the number as seven-point underdogs and the combined 45 points slid ‘under’ the closing number of 46 ½.
AFC vs. NFC
The NFC holds a 22-21 straight up edge over the AFC and if you look at the past dozen Super Bowls, the AFC has gone 8-4 straight up. However, they’ve only posted a 5-5-2 mark against the number over this run. The largest margin of victory for the AFC during that stretch was 27 points in Super Bowl XXXV, when Baltimore crushed the N.Y. Giants 34-7 as a three-point favorite from Tampa.
Double-digit victories happen often in the big game, 28 times to be exact. The NFC has won an eye opening 17 of its 22 Super Bowl’s by 10-plus points with its most impressive win coming in 1990 after San Francisco crushed Denver 55-10 for an easy 45-point victory in SBXXIV.
Over vs. Under
Whether you fancy the ‘over’ or the ‘under’, you really have no room to complain. The ‘under’ holds a slight 22-21 edge through the first 43 finales, with no total being listed on the first installment. The ‘under’ was on a 4-0 run before the Steelers and Cardinals busted up that trend with a 50-point burst last year.
Sticking with the number 50, this year’s total is listed at 56 and could rise even higher by kickoff. According to the past history this will be the eighth Super Bowl that has an ‘over/under’ listed at 50 or higher. In those seven games, the ‘under’ has gone 4-3. However two of the seven were played in Miami and both those games went ‘over’ the number, including the highest-scoring Super Bowl (XXIX) of all-time when the 49ers fittingly routed the Chargers 49-26.
Parlay Combinations
Some might think it’s hard enough to pick the winner in any sport, but try nailing both the side and the total could be viewed as a shot in the dark. Normally, you would expect the books to clean up on the public’s guessing game. However, the combination of ‘favorite/over’ has occurred in 14 of the 43 Super Bowl games with a listed side and total. That’s an incredible 33 percent for laying the wood in a shootout, which is the highest of all four possible outcomes. The ‘underdog/under’ takes second place, showing up on 12 different occasions. The two least likely combinations of the four have been the ‘favorite/under’ and ‘underdog/over'. To no surprise, the majority of players at Sportsbook.com have already started to load up on the Colts-Over combination.
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