Teams Avoiding an 0-3 Start
By Kevin Rogers
We have seen plenty of surprises through the first two weeks of the season in the NFL, both positive and negative. Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Miami, and Chicago are among the 2-0 teams we didn't expect, while a handful of 0-2 clubs are raising eyebrows. Minnesota and Dallas are two division winners from a season ago that are winless through two weeks, and are in must-win situations this Sunday. We'll take a look at all eight 0-2 squads and what they need to do to avoid an 0-3 hole.
Lions at Vikings (-11, 42½)
It's amazing that an 0-2 team is laying double-digit points, even with a Minnesota squad that hasn't scored more than 10 points in a game so far this season. Dating back to 2000, there has been only one 0-2 team listed as a double-digit home favorite, as the Dolphins failed to cover in a 13-10 win over the Titans as 10 ½-point 'chalk' in 2006. The Vikings will try to get their offense going against a Lions' club that has allowed over 400 yards in each of their losses.
Detroit squandered a 10-point lead in last week's 35-32 setback to Philadelphia, as the Lions played without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. The offense responded to backup Shaun Hill, who threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns, including the late score to Calvin Johnson to give Detroit the backdoor cover as six-point underdogs. The Lions have struggled within the NFC North since the Rod Marinelli era began in 2006, going 3-22 SU and 8-15-2 ATS. The opening week cover at Chicago was the first time Detroit has cashed inside the division under Jim Schwartz, snapping an 0-5-1 ATS skid that started last season.
The Vikings were an offensive juggernaut in 2009, but in two weeks this season, things have turned offensive on that side ball very quickly. Brett Favre threw three interceptions in last week's 14-10 loss to the Dolphins, Minnesota's first home defeat since a 26-14 setback to Philadelphia in the 2008 Wild Card round. For as bad as the Lions are against the NFC North, the Vikings are the polar opposite with a 9-3 SU record the last two seasons. Minnesota managed a 4-1-1 ATS mark against division foes in 2009, while going 4-0-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite overall.
Cowboys at Texans (-3, 47½)
The battle of the Lone Star State takes place at Reliant Stadium in Houston as the Texans look to begin 3-0 for the first time in franchise history. On the flip side, the Cowboys try to dig out of an 0-2 hole, as Wade Phillips' team would like to avoid an 0-3 start prior to their bye next week.
Houston has pulled out two impressive victories to begin the season, both in contrasting ways. The Texans busted out of a 1-15 SU funk against the Colts with a 34-24 opening week victory, as the Houston running game boosted the offense with 257 yards on the ground. Matt Schaub went from throwing for 107 yards against Indianapolis to a career-high 497 yards and three touchdowns in last week's overtime victory at Washington. The Texans have won six straight home games against NFC foes, as they try to avenge a 34-6 loss at Dallas in Gary Kubiak's first season as head coach in 2006.
The Cowboys were expected to compete for the NFC Championship this team, but they have work to do following losses to the Redskins and Bears. Dallas has outgained each of its opponents, as the passing game kept the Cowboys close in last week's 27-20 defeat to the Bears. The problem is the Cowboys haven't been able to cash in, as Dallas has scored two offensive touchdowns in two games. Dallas dropped its only trip ever to Reliant Stadium in Houston's expansion season of 2002, falling 19-10 as nine-point 'chalk.'
Bengals (-3, 38) at Panthers
Cincinnati bounced back after an embarrassing loss at New England, as the Bengals edged the Ravens as short home underdogs. The defending AFC North champs travel to Carolina to take on the 0-2 Panthers, who have made a change for the future at quarterback.
Former Notre Dame standout Jimmy Clausen replaces Matt Moore under center for the Panthers, as Carolina has scored nine points the last six quarters. For the exception of a Steve Smith 37-yard touchdown grab, the Panthers accomplished very little in last Sunday's 20-7 home defeat to the Bucs. Carolina's defense limited Tampa Bay to 273 yards, but the Panthers lost the turnover battle, 3-0.
The Bengals managed five Mike Nugent field goals in the 15-10 win over the Ravens, but Cincinnati now gets flipped to the favorite role this week. Marvin Lewis' team was 0-8 ATS and 4-4 SU when laying points in 2009, while owning a 2-8 ATS mark as a road favorite since 2006.
Bills at Patriots (-14, 42½)
Buffalo has looked like the worst team in the NFL through two weeks, getting outscored, 49-17. The Bills head to Foxboro as Buffalo tries for its first road win over New England since 2000. The Pats will not be a happy bunch, coming home off a 28-14 setback at the Jets in which New York scored the final 21 points in the game.
This series has been dominated by the Patriots over the years with New England winning the last 13 meetings. The Bills have found a way to cover only three times in this span, including a 25-24 loss as 13-point underdogs in last year's season opener in Foxboro. The Trent Edwards experiment is on hold for now as the Bills will start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The former Harvard QB was responsible for four road covers last season, including SU wins over the Jets, Panthers, and Chiefs.
The Patriots own a strong 19-5 ATS ledger since 2003 off a loss, while losing consecutive games only twice in this span. On the flip side, New England has covered only three of its previous 13 games as a double-digit favorite since the Pats' undefeated regular season of 2007.
49ers (-3, 36½) at Chiefs
San Francisco lost a heartbreaker on Monday night to New Orleans, falling to the defending Super Bowl champs, 25-22. The Niners cashed as six-point 'dogs, but their late rally fell short on Garrett Hartley's game-winning field goal at the gun. The Chiefs, meanwhile, look for their first 3-0 start since a 9-0 debut to the 2003 season.
The Niners turned the ball over four times, but Frank Gore's touchdown in the final two minutes tied the game up for San Francisco. The problem this week is Alex Smith's 1-6 SU mark on the road since last season, including the opening week drubbing suffered at Seattle.
The Chiefs have not been spectacular from an offensive standpoint, but Kansas City has made enough big plays to start 2-0 after wins over San Diego and Cleveland. Brandon Flowers was responsible for Kansas City's lone touchdown in the 16-14 victory over the Browns, the second non-offensive touchdown scored by the Chiefs in two weeks. Since an 0-4 ATS start last season, the Chiefs are 9-5 ATS the previous 14 games, but have covered only one of their last six at Arrowhead Stadium.
Browns at Ravens (-10½, 37½)
The battle of the new Browns and the old Browns takes place in Baltimore as the Ravens play their home opener against a struggling Cleveland squad. John Harbaugh's club has scored only 20 points in two games, but the Ravens' defense has limited opponents to 24 points in a 1-1 start.
The Browns have been involved in two low-scoring games, while leading at the half in losses to the Bucs and Chiefs. Cleveland will probably stick with Seneca Wallace this week after Jake Delhomme missed the Kansas City game with an ankle injury. Eric Mangini has done a good job covering numbers on the road since last season, owning a 5-2 ATS ledger in their last seven on the highway.
Baltimore has won four straight meetings with Cleveland, including a pair of whippings last season. The Ravens blew out the Browns in Week 3 at home, 34-3, easily covering as 13 ½-point favorites. Under Harbaugh, Baltimore has been a machine as a home favorite with a 10-3 ATS mark when laying points at M&T Bank Stadium.
Redskins (-3, 38½) at Rams
Washington was unable to hold a 17-point lead in last Sunday's overtime loss to Houston, but the Redskins' offense woke up with a 421-yard effort. The 'Skins look to bounce back with a trip to St. Louis, battling the winless Rams, who suffered their second defeat of four points or less.
The Rams will be better soon, but St. Louis has now lost 27 of its last 28 games dating back to 2008. To make matters worse, the Rams are 0-14 SU and 5-9 ATS at the Edward Jones Dome since beating the Cowboys in October 2008. St. Louis has played well against Washington over the last two seasons, beating the Redskins, 19-17 as 13-point road underdogs in '08. The Rams covered again last season in D.C., but fell short in a 9-7 loss in Week 2.
The Redskins own a 12-8-5 ATS mark on the road since 2007, while splitting a pair of games as away 'chalk' last season against Detroit (L) and Oakland (W). Washington would like to improve on its 2009 ledger as a favorite against non-division opponents, going just 1-4 ATS.
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