Texans, Giants cash for Books
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The entire landscape of the NFL postseason changed when the Packers lost at home to the Giants, 37-20. Green Bay was supposed to be the ‘it’ team after going 15-1 during the regular season, but the combination of maybe be too much rest and a relentless Giants attack on both sides of the ball sent the NFC’s No. 1 seed packing in the Divisional Playoff round for the fourth time in five years.
The LVH Super Book readjusted their Super Bowl line drastically due to the Packers no longer being a player in the game. Prior to Sunday, the NFC was a 3 ½--point favorite in the Super Bowl line they have had posted all season. On Monday morning the AFC was posted as a 4 ½ -point favorite and the total had dropped from 54 to 50.
The Packers and Patriots had been 9/5 co-favorites (Bet $50 to win $90) to win the Super Bowl following New England’s 45-10 win over Denver, but with Green Bay out of the mix, the Patriots are now the 10/11 (Bet $110 to win $100) favorites.
The Super Bowl everyone is hoping for is the Patriots-Giants in a rematch from the 2007 season where the Giants did the unthinkable by knocking off an undefeated Patriots squad, a team that steam rolled through the entire season like no one had ever seen before.
“There’s no doubt about it, the public wants the Patriots and Giants to meet again and it would be our best scenario as far as handle goes,’ said Caesars Palace’s Todd Fuhrman.
Of the four remaining teams, there is no matchup that would create the type of buzz New York and New England would. You’ve got the Patriots on a nine-game winning streak going against a Giants team that looks very similar to the Giants Wild Card team from 2007. This season’s version of the Giants and 2007’s both had to win at Green Bay to advance.
The Ravens and the 49ers are almost an afterthought at this juncture to everyone other than their fans, but it’s definitely a Super Bowl Las Vegas doesn’t want.
“Our worst case scenario is definitely the Ravens meetings the 49ers,” said Fuhrman. “It’s a nice story with the brothers meeting against each other in the Super Bowl, but it wouldn’t translate well through the betting windows like any other possible match-up.”
The public loves the possibility of a high-scoring game and the total helps set the stage. The Giants and Patriots would be listed at 51 or 52 while the Ravens and 49ers would be set around 40 or 41.
The least popular team in the entire equation is the Ravens. Their brand of football has been successful, but let’s face it, they’re not a fun team to watch. Joe Flacco is the weakest of the four remaining quarterbacks, including Alex Smith, and great defensive teams don’t get the type of respect these days like they used to.
While the 49ers have a defense equal of better than the Ravens, they won over America with their 36-32 victory against the Saints last Saturday. Late in the game, they answered scores by the Saints in thrilling fashion and Smith showed the world that he was the original Tim Tebow under head coach Urban Meyer at Utah.
The Ravens have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl at 6/1. The 49ers and Giants are each at 7/2.
The Patriots opened as 7-point home favorites against the Ravens and was quickly bet to -7½. The two teams met last season in New England with the Patriots winning 23-20 giving them a 6-0 record against Baltimore in the regular season. However, in their only playoff meeting, following the 2009 season, the Ravens won 33-13 at New England in the Divisional Playoff round.
The LVH Super Book opened the 49ers at pick-em, but was quickly bet up the ladder to -2½. They also had their total bet down from 44 to 42½.
The 49ers beat the Giants 27-20 in Week 10 at San Francisco as 3½-point favorites. That loss was a week after the Giants’ big win over the Patriots, but started a succession of four straight losses that put their playoff hopes in serious jeopardy. Since getting off that skid, the G-men have reeled off five wins in six games, all coming in playoff-type fashion with a win or go home mentality.
Sports Books Have Good Weekend
The Divisional Playoff round went well for Las Vegas sports books with the key game being the Texans covering at Baltimore as 7 ½-point road underdogs. The Ravens were the common link to almost everyone’s parlay for the weekend.
The Saints (-4) were a popular choice against the 49ers to kick off the weekend and fell 36-32 in one of the most exciting playoff games in recent history. The Patriots went from -13½ to -14 by game day, making it not seem like a good decision for the house, but after all the money-line wagers on the Broncos (+600) were tallied, it ended up being a good decision closing out Saturday’s ledger.
Had the Ravens scored on their fourth-and-inches play at the goal line late in the game, the entire city would have been cashing, but the game stayed 20-13 and gave the books a big win. Sharp money pushed the total from 38½ down to 35½ early in the week, but the majority of public money was on the OVER.
Had the Packers-Giants (+8) game stayed under the total of 52, the books would have raked in almost all of the chips, but a late touchdown by the Giants made the score 37-20. Despite losing on all the money-line wagers with New York (+290), the Packers losing on teasers was the biggest difference one the day. Baltimore, Green Bay and New England were a popular teaser combination. In the Baltimore game, all sides hit on the teaser.