Texas 2009 Schedule Analysis and Forecast
By The Prez
Fans of the Texas Longhorns will tell you that their team got hosed last year and they probably have a point. The Longhorns, Sooners and Red Raiders all finished in a three-way tie atop the South with one loss, but Oklahoma got the nod for the Big 12 title game because OU was higher ranked in the BCS standings than Texas or Texas Tech.
The Horns lost their national title shot to a team they beat because OU edged the Longhorns by 13 thousandths of a point in the BCS. Seems silly.
Fourteen starters overall return, led by All-American QB Colt McCoy. The senior-to-be set an NCAA Division I single-season record by completing 76.7 percent of his passes last year to finish second in the Heisman voting. He even led the Horns in rushing, although coaches don’t want him running as much this year to save his body.
The two key performers gone from last year are WR Quan Cosby and DE Brian Orakpo. Cosby had a team-leading 1,123 yards receiving in 2008, but fellow 1,000-yard receiver Jordan Shipley is back. He was the guy McCoy looked to in those clutch situations.
As for Orakpo, he helped Texas lead the nation in sacks last year. Sergio Kindle, a likely first-round NFL pick next year, will attempt to be the monster Orakpo was last season in getting to the quarterback. The defensive line lost three starters from last year, so Kindle will spend most of his time at defensive end as opposed to linebacker, where he was most of last year.
Here’s Texas’ schedule (times still in flux):
September 5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe
September 12 at Wyoming
September 19 vs. Texas Tech
September 26 vs. UTEP
October 10 vs. Colorado
October 17 vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)
October 24 at Missouri
October 31 at Oklahoma State
November 7 vs. UCF
November 14 at Baylor
November 21 vs. Kansas
November 26 at Texas A&M
The Longhorns’ schedule is easier than is Oklahoma’s, especially that non-conference slate. Louisiana-Monroe? Wyoming? UTEP? Central Florida? That’s four blowout victories for Texas and a bit of a joke.
In reality, Texas’ schedule this year comes down to two games (so it’s easy to see why its over/ under is 10 regular-season wins at BetUS.com): The annual game with Oklahoma in Dallas and the Halloween matchup at Oklahoma State. The Horns have good history with the two Oklahoma schools. Texas has beaten the Sooners three times in the past four years and is unbeaten against the Cowboys under Mack Brown.
I don't believe rebuilding A&M is ready to pull the upset in what might have been a dangerous game a few seasons ago. But I'll bet that one is closer than people expect.
Texas controls its own destiny this year. An unbeaten season and a win in the Big 12 title game absolutely ensures UT plays for the national title this year. Vince Young won it all in what turned out to be his final season in Austin. Maybe McCoy can do the same. I believe he does get Texas to Pasadena.
Take Texas and the over 10 wins – at worst this team goes 11-1. The Horns are +165 to win the Big 12, slightly better odds than Oklahoma. Take that too. And UT is good value at +725 to win the national title.