Thanksgiving Consensus Report:

DR CHAD

5 units on GREEN BAY and INDY.
3 units on ARIZONA STATE.

FRIDAY.. 3rd 7 unit ever (1-0-1) NEBRASKA +4 and a half.
5 units Mississippi and Texas A & M.
3 units COLORADO ST. and TOLEDO

BIG AL's 100% (13-0) 5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH (Thursday)

At 12:30 pm, our 5* NFL Game of the Month is on the Detroit Lions plus the points over Green Bay. On Sunday, the Packers won 31-17 over Carolina, but Green Bay was outgained in yardage by the Panthers, and victorious simply because Carolina turned the ball over four times (vs. zero turnovers by the Pack). Turnovers, of course, are the most random element of football wagering, so Green Bay was indeed fortunate to have won its fifth straight game (and fourth straight ATS). But now, Green Bay falls into two negative systems of mine (2-24 ATS and 0-13 ATS), while Detroit is a play under a 78-43 system off its back to back losses (at Arizona and home vs. the Giants). Specifically, our 78-43 angle plays on winning teams at home off a home loss, if our home team is not favored by 9+ points. And our 13-0 angle plays on certain winning teams at home, who are not favored by 4+ points, if they're matched up against a foe off back to back wins and covers. Detroit has lost its last three meetings with the Packers, and the revenging team is 17-8 ATS since 1980 in Detroit's Turkey Day games. Finally, with such a short work week, Detroit has a huge advantage by playing its previous game at home, and not having to travel. And the Lions are 100% ATS since 1980 on Thanksgiving when coming off a home game. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my College Football Winners on Thursday and Friday.

Dr Bob NCAA Football

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3* Arizona St +3.5, 2* at +3 or worse.

Johnathan Stone

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Usc -3

Neri Sports

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3* Az State

2* Detroit
2* Dallas
1* Atlanta

Northcoast

2 Dallas -14
Top Usc U 49 Marq.
Top G B -3- Marq.
Reg G B U 47
Reg Atl. + 11-
Reg Dallas U 47
Reg Alt. U 41
Reg U S C -3

Uncle Phil's Play
3 G B -3

Gold Medal Club

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NFL: All rated 15*

Green Bay -1.5 First half
OVER 23.5

Dallas UNDER 48

Indy -11.5
OVER 41

lem banker

det-----jets-----at

Marc Lawrence

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Det
Boys
Atlanta

wunderdog

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Game: New York Jets at Dallas (Thursday 11/22 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on New York Jets +14
This is a potential letdown spot for both teams. The Jets are coming off a big win vs. the Steelers. Meanwhile the Cowboys are off a tough divisional game vs. Washington with their biggest remaining game of the year on-deck (next Thursday vs. the 9-1 Packers). That game vs. the Pack will in all liklihood determine homefield advantage for the playoffs in the NFC. It would be very difficult to expect the Cowboys to be up for this game vs. the Jets. The Cowboys showed that they are susceptible to the letdown (remember the MNF game vs. Buffalo prior to the Cowboys' game vs. New England?). While most view New York as a !BAD! team, we think they are not so terrible. We saw a change earlier this season in Buffalo when they were forced to use Edwards at QB, and we are now seeing a change in the Jets under Clemens. It would be hard to think the Jets defense could keep them in the game, but this team held the Steelers to 16 points. The fact is the Jets have been in every game they have played outside of the opener vs. New England. Save that game, the Jets have played !GOOD! and have been within 11 points of everyone on their schedule. The last two weeks vs. !GOOD2! teams (Washington and Pittsburgh), Clemens was at the helm and the Jets scored evenly 39-39. One could argue they are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now, and getting 14 from an opponent that is likely to be sleeping, provides a lot of value. Double-digit road underdogs vs. a team performing very well have covered at a 74% clip including 1-0 this season. Five teams have won games outright this season as a 7+ point underdog and three of the five have covered the next game, so don't expect a Jets letdown, expect the opposite on the national stage. J-E-T-S-Jets-Jets-Jets!

Game: Indianapolis at Atlanta (Thursday 11/22 8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +11.5
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110

Indianpolis has fallen on very hard times. After starting 7-0 and 6-1 ATS, they lost a very important game to New England at home. That was the start of a downward spiral that includes injuries to key players such as Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, Anthjony Gonzalez and Tony Ugoh. And, other players have not playing like themselves (Manning, Vinatieri, Clark). After the New England loss, they went on to lose to San Diego and had a major scare vs. Kansas City last week. Marvin Harrison will again be out and this past week, the Colts lost Dwight Freeney for the season. This is a repeat of last season when they started out invincible only to post a 2-4 mark from mid November to mid December. This team will be back come playoffs but right now they just aren't right. Peyton Manning has thrown 7 interceptions the past two weeks to just two touchdowns. And the running game has also faltered. After averaging 138 yards per game through their first eight games, the Colts gained just 141 total yards on the ground in their last two games. The Falcons are off a terrible loss to Tampa Bay. They bring back Joey Harrington which is actually a good thing as Leftwhich has been even worse. Their only wins this season have come with Harrington under center. With their stars underperforming, riddled with key injuries, and having a short week to heal and correct things, should the Colts be laying double digits on the road? We don't think so. Yes, it's scary to back Atlanta, especially after their performance last week. But, we track a system that backs certain teams after a really bad performance that's in play here. This system has hit a 61% rate long term and it's 30-16 (65%) this year! Atlanta has played solid defense all season long. They are ranked 15th in defense overall and have kept four opponents to 16 points or less. The most points they have given up was last week thanks to a rare defensive touchdown. The Colts, as mentioned, are trending downward on offense. While scoring 32 points per game in their first seven games, they have averaged just 18 per game their last three. With their offense sagging, and still suffering from injuries, we expect their offense to again be sub-par. Our computer matchup for this game predicts 39 points. We agree that this one will come in UNDER the posted total. The Colts are 6-0 UNDER the pat three seasons on the road vs. non-conference foes. The Falcons are 18-7 UNDER at home the pat two seasons including 9-1 UNDER after having lost 4+ games out of their last six. We'll take the big double digit home dog in this one as well as the UNDER.

wunderdog ncaa football

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Game: U S C at Arizona State (Thursday 11/22 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Arizona State +3
With Oregon's loss to Arizona, Arizona State holds their fate in their own hands. They lead the Pac 10 with jus tone loss. If they can win their final two games, both at home, they secure their BCS spot. So, they are sufficiently motivated to win this game on Thanksgiving. The Sun Devils are undefeated at home and 5-1 ATS. At home they are winning by an average score of 38.5 to 17. They haven't fared well against USC in the win-loss column but they have competed, having covered the last two games ATS vs. much superior Trojans teams. Last season they lost by just a touchdown in Southern California as a 19 point underdog. ASU has had two weeks to prepare for this all-important game and they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games coming off a bye. USC has won two in a row after falling to Oregon. But, the Trojans are 0-6 ATS this year and last following two straight wins. Arizona State is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 at home off a road win. Dennis Erickson, despite what you think of him, is very tough in close games. Teams he has coached are 13-4 ATS when the line is -3 to +3. He's also 31-14 ATS in all home games including 221-10 ATS vs. conference foes. We like Arizona State to win this one or keep it very close.

Game: Nebraska at Colorado (Friday 11/23 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nebraska +4

Colorado's had an up-and down season. They put together back-to-back stinkers early in the year to Arizona State and Florida State but then turned around and beat Miami Ohio by 42 and shocked Oklahoma. They have lost four of their last five games, allowing 35.6 points per game. Nebraska has also had an up-and-down season, starting 4-1 and then losing five in a row before beating Kansas State 73-31 last week. So, these teams aren't that different. The thing that scares us about backing the team laying points here is that they are scoring just 24 points per game on the year (19.8 at home) while giving up 27.5 per game at home and over 37 per game in their last three games. This defense is crummy and getting worse. And, the offense, under a freshman QB, doesn't have the firepower to put up a lot. Nebraska's defense is also bad but they have some momentum. Teams allowing 35+ points per game coming off a 21+ point win are 34-8 ATS the past ten seasons. And the Buffs are 0-8 ATS when coming off a road game under Dan Hawkins. We think Nebraska has at least an equal shot at winning this game so we'll back them with the points cushion.

Game: Mississippi at Mississippi State (Friday 11/23 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Mississippi +6.5

If you look at the records, this looks like a no-brainer win for Miss State. They are 6-5 and have a couple quality wins vs. league foes while Ole Miss was shut-out during SEC play with nothing to show in the win column. But we actually feel that the difference between these teams is not that great. Ole Miss has been competitive all season long. They were within 10 of LSU with under three minutes to go, lost to Florida by 6, Alabama by 3, Missouri by 13, and Auburn by 14. They, for the most part, have played great and been very competitive. Miss State is 1-8 ATS in home games off a loss to a conference rival the last three years, and 5-16 ATS in home games after gaining 100 yards or less. They are also just 5-15 ATS after a game where they have had a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points returning 8+ starters on offense have covered 65% of the time (65-35) when pitted against a defense that has returned five or fewer starters. We will ride the dog in this one, as the intense rivalry is the equalizer.

Game: Toledo at Bowling Green (Friday 11/23 2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toledo +7

This line started at 4.5 and has climbed to the magic 7 number as the money pours in on Bowling Green. BG has won three in a row in convincing fashion while Toledo is off a 21 point loss. But, we think this is an overreaction to one game for Toledo. That loss was a tough road game against a better opponent. Prior to that loss, they had won three straight SU and ATS, averaging 55 points per game. This is a big-time offense that can surpass what Bowling Green can do. Defense is another matter as BG has a clear advantage there. We just feel 7 points is too much considering BG is 1-10 ATS in their last eleven home games. We like the Rockets plus the points.

Game: Boise State at Hawaii (Friday 11/23 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boise State +3

There is obviously a lot at stake in this game between two 10-win teams. The outright conference Championship will be decided as well as a potential BCS berth. Boise State is no stranger to the big stage. They have a career 52-3 mark in WAC games and this team is stocked year after year. The last three weeks they have really turned it up a notch, winning by a combined 152-21 margin. Outside of their game vs. Nevada and loss to Washington, the Broncos have not been challenged. If you take out that game with Nevada they are allowing only 13.4 ppg. The big question mark for Hawaii is the status and effectiveness of QB Colt Brennan. He was forced to sit out almost the entire game last week with a concussion. Boise State has not had trouble putting away good offensive teams, as they are 18-4 ATS in their last 24 games vs. teams that average 425+ yards per game. Meanwhile Hawaii has struggled against teams that average 6.25+ yards per play as they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. such opponents. Hawaii has been an escape artist this season, as they have had four near-misses, winning by margins of 1, 2, 7 and another game in OT. Boise State is 25-8 ATS the past decade vs. winning teams including 15-4 ATS vs. teams scoring 31+ ppg. They have better defense, just as much offense, and we expect they do what they do in big games - win!

jeff bonds

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Thu, 11/22/07 - 8:00 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet110 Arizona St. 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 109 Southern Cal
Analysis: Arizona State is enjoying a great season and I'm very impressed that they bounced back from a disappointing game against Oregon to beat UCLA two weeks ago.

This game is likely to determine the Pac-10 representative in the Rose Bowl, as the Oregon Ducks are down and out without QB Dennis Dixon.

I really think the difference in this matchup is the quarterback position and from what I've seen on TV and in person - is a definitive edge in favor of Arizona State. Rudy Carpenter is 20-8 as the starting quarterback.

ASU head coach Dennis Erickson is also a dominant 49-15-1 in the month of November, which should nullify the edge of USC leader Pete Carroll's undefeated November record.

I love that we're getting more than a FG on national TV in a conference that certainly doesn't have a dominant force this season. Just make sure you wait and let the public move the line more in Arizona State's favor

greg shaker

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Thu, 11/22/07 - 8:15 PMGreg Shaker | NFL Total
triple-dime bet108 ATL / 107 IND Over 42.0 BetUS
Analysis: NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons - Over 41 -110 | Unit Value: 3 DIMES
Game Date: 11/22/2007
Note: This line is as low as it is due to the inept offense of the Falcons and they recent low scoring of the Colts. But there are plenty of reasons why this game will fly OVER the total. We can start with the fact that this is a short week for these teams, having played on Sunday. That lends itself to higher than usual scoring games because both teams are ailing quite a bit on the D side of the ball. It does take more time for D Players to become more ready to play while nursing the knocks that the NFL provides. It is one of the reasons why Thanksgiving games tend to go OVER the mark more times than not. The Colts are not scoring nearly as much as they have been and the reasons are certainly Two-fold. The lack of some key offesnive personel is one with Marvin Harrison not being in the lineup along with Anthony Gonzalez and tight end Bryan Fletcher. Tony Dungy, "I think we'll get some guys back this week and I think we'll get a few more after that. I think Anthony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh and Bryan Fletcher could all be back this week." Manning has also faced more pressure with left tackle Tony Ugoh (neck) out, and he threw six interceptions in a loss at San Diego two weeks ago, primarily because of that. We can look at the last 3 games that the Colts have played, New England, San Diego, and KC. These three are some of the best defensive units in the League. Atlanta is not, allowing over 21 per contest against all competition. That competition is not the who's who of the NFL. Indy is. They Falcons scored just 7 last week but 4 TO's costed them dearly and Harrington will get the nod this week. He was 16-of-20 for 139 yards and a touchdown in relief of Leftwich last week, and looked pretty good indeed. Being at home on the National TV screen should motivate this team to play as well as they can and I do think they help bring this total OVER. This is a low number considering who we have on the field and the situation at hand.

Trey Johnson 10*

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#107 Indianapolis (-) over Atlanta at 8:15 PM EST

Without offensive weapons Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, tight end Bryan Fletcher, tight end Dallas Clark, and left tackle Tony Ugoh Peyton Manning and the Colts struggled. This week all should be back except for Harrison. Off one of the most miserable performances of his career look for Manning and the finally healthy Colts offense to explode against this undermanned Falcons defense.

The Colts steady defensive play has helped to minimize the damage while its offense has sputtered. The Colts defense is ranked second I the NFL, allowing 266.3 yards per game. They haven’t allowed more than 24 points this year, and are allowing 15.9 per game. Two weeks ago the Colts allowed 177 yards to the Chargers and would have won that game if not for two special teams’ touchdowns, and a rare field goal miss my Vinatieri. Last week without Dwight Freeney, out for the year with a foot injury, the defense allowed KC 11 first downs and 234 yards of offense.

Since 1992 the Colts are 6-1 ATS against NFC South opponents including a 3-0 ATS mark this season. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five dome games and 4-1 ATS in their last five on turf. Atlanta is 3-10 ATS against winning teams over the last three seasons including a 1-2 ATS mark this season. Since 1992 Indy is 3-0 ATS versus Atlanta including a 1-0 ATS mark in Atlanta.
The Colts rebound huge with a blowout win tonight!
Play Indianapolis (-)