Burns NFL
LIONS (+3 or better)
Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Game Time: 11/22/2007 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Lions Reason: I'm taking the points with DETROIT. The Lions have looked somewhat like the "Lions of old" when playing on the road this season. However, they've been an entirely different team here at Ford Field. In fact, despite last week's setback to the Giants, they're still an impressive 4-1 SU (3-1-1 ATS) in five home games this season. Of course, the Packers have been winning both at home and on the road. They haven't fared very well on Thursday's historically though, going 1-5 ATS their last six Thursday games, and they'll be facing an extremely hungry opponent this afternoon. While the game is a very big one for the Packers, who are still playing for top spot in the conference, its a HUGE one for the Lions. If they can win, they've still got a shot for the division title and put themselves in excellent position for a Wildcard spot. However, if they lose, they have no shot at the division title and the Wildcard starts to look pretty "iffy." While the Packers managed a win here last season, they’re still a money-burning 6-14 ATS (8-12 SU) their last 20 visits to Detroit. It should be mentioned that the Packers have a date with Dallas on deck, the NFC's version of the Colts vs. Patriots. Its also interesting to note that the Lions are 11-5-1 in 17 all-time Thanksgiving Day games against the Packers. In addition to attempting to solidify their playoff chances, the Lions will be anxious to prove to the world that they are a different team than in year's past. Unlike the Packers, the Lions rarely get a chance to play on National TV and they've dropped three straight Thanksgiving Day games. This year's team is significantly better and I expect them to prove it to the world this afternoon. *Main Event
UNDER jets/cowboys (46 or better)
Game: New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys Game Time: 11/22/2007 4:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Jets and Cowboys to finish UNDER the number. The Cowboys have been a high-scoring team this season and come off a high-scoring game vs. the Redskins. However, a closer look reveals that last week's game wasn't all that high-scoring until the teams exploded in the fourth quarter. Regardless, that result has helped cause this afternoon's over/under line to be even higher than it normally would be, giving us excellent value on the UNDER. This week, the Cowboys will face a Jets' defense that is playing its best football of the season. Last week, the Jets held the powerful Steelers, a team which had averaged 31 their previous three games, to a mere 16 points. That was the third time in the last five games that the Jets had held their opponent to 16 points or less. While the Jets defense comes off one of its best games, the offense hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. After "exploding" for 19 points last week, the Jets are now averaging 14 points the past three weeks. After last week's final score stayed below the total, the Jets have now seen the UNDER go a solid 41-29-3 (56%) the last 73 times they faced a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. During the same stretch, the Cowboys have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 33-15-1 when facing a team with a losing record during the second half of the season. The Cowboys one weakness has been a suspect secondary. However, the Jets aren't exactly equipped to take advantage of that weakness, at the best of times, and they're expected to be without top wideout Laveranues Coles. That means we can expect an especially heavy dose of running back Thomas Jones. While frequent running plays will help to chew up the clock, it should also play right into the Cowboys' strength, as their defense ranks fourth in the league against the run, allowing just 84.3 yards per game. These teams have met just once this millennium (at the Meadowlands in 2003) and they combined for only 23 points. The last time they met at Dallas (1999) they managed 43. Look for another defensive affair this afternoon as the final combined score falls beneath the big number. *Thursday Total of the Year
burns college football
OVER usc/asu (51 or better)
Game: USC vs. Arizona St. Game Time: 11/22/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on USC and Arizona State to finish OVER the total. Both teams have excellent defenses and both have been profitable "under" teams this season. However, both teams also have put up big points on offense and the earlier results have caused this evening's number to be generously low. The Trojans are averaging 31 points (425 total yards) per game one the road while the Sun Devils are averaging 38.5 points (448 total yards) per game at home. In fact, they've eclipsed the 30 point mark in ALL six of their games here. Looking at the series history and we find that the last four meetings have produced a minimum of 49 points and that seven meetings this millennium averaged a whopping 59.3 points. The over/under lines were all higher than this evening's low number. Even last season, with rules in place to decrease scoring, the over/under line was in the mid 50s. Both teams have had an extra week off. That's worth noting as that gives Sun Devil's quarterback Rudy Carpenter a chance to heal his injured thumb. Coach Erickson says that "..the swelling is down...he is throwing the ball well..." That's important as Carpenter has completed 63 percent of his passes for 2,528 yards and 20 touchdowns. He's already joined Andrew Walter and Jake Plummer as the only Sun Devils to throw for 7000 yards. The extra week also gives Trojans' QB John David Booty time to further recover from an earlier broken finger. When asked about Booty's finger, Coach Carol said: "...He's throwing the ball a lot, and we've been able to use him as much as we needed to get him prepared. ... He's ready to go, and we have no issues with his hands at all." Additionally, the fact that the Trojans are coming off a bye is also worth mentioning as they've seen the OVER go 4-1 the last five times they came off a bye. Look for more of the same this evening as the final combined score finishes below the relatively low number. *PAC 10 Total of the Year
Peter King
Green Bay Packers (9-1) at Detroit Lions (6-4)
Eating habits nationwide change. I know they do in my house. We usually eat Thanksgiving dinner at 2 or 3 if we're home for it, and this year, I've not-so-subtlely pushed dinner back to 4:30ish. I'm not going to miss the first meaningful Lions game since Alex Karras menaced foes at Tiger Stadium ... and I'm not going to miss whatever it is Brett Favre's going to do next.
Packers 23, Lions 10
New York Jets (2-8) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1)
The Bill Parcells Alumni Bowl. One of Parcells' last meaningful picks, Jets pass-rusher Shaun Ellis, chases the no-name Parcells installed at quarterback last year, Tony Romo. I don't like Ellis' chances to leave much of an imprint on the elusive Romo.
Cowboys 34, Jets 13
Indianapolis Colts (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
The sleep-inducing qualities of turkey are overrated, as I learned this week on Wikipedia. There is more tryptophan in cheddar cheese than turkey. Then again, if there was caffeine in turkey we'd still be ready for a nap by about the third Falcon turnover in the third game of a food-and-Heineken Light-filled day. Poor Cris Collinsworth, by the way. Not that he has to miss Thanksgiving with his four children, but that he has to enliven this game for the NFL Network.
Colts 30, Falcons 6
Tennessee Titans (6-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)
Marvin Lewis has coached 75 NFL games. Take a guess what his record is. Nine over .500? Eleven? Try one. He's 38-37, in danger this week of evening the ledger piloting one of the most disappointing teams in the league. I see him preparing for a nice little housecleaning. By the way, Vince Young threw the ball very well in Denver on Monday night. Maybe that quad strain is the best thing that could have happened to his pocket presence.
Titans 19, Bengals 15
Houston Texans (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-4)
I half-expect Elvin Bethea to blindside Brian Sipe in this one. Somehow, Mario Williams chasing Derek Anderson (and not catching him, in my opinion) doesn't conjure up the same visions. This is a game the Browns have to have if they have designs on that sixth playoff seed.
Browns 27, Texans 13
Oakland Raiders (2-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6)
Chiefs have won nine straight in the series. Real killers, there. Whoa. The margins of those nine wins: 7, 3, 7, 1, 6, 4, 4, 11 and 2 points. You get that the recent history, plus Warren Sapp's apt reaming-out of the Raiders' defense, is going to make for another close one in Arrowhead.
Chiefs 20, Raiders 16
Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-8)
The Rams will finish 5-11, may save Scott Lenihan's job and will totally confound draftniks who want them to get in position to pick Howie Long's son to fix their defense. (It's never too early to talk draft, is it?) They also might win this game. They've scored 50 points and had 45 very welcome carries from Steven Jackson in their nice little two-game winning streak ... with both wins coming on the road. This team's not dead.
Seahawks 28, Rams 25
Minnesota Vikings (4-6) at New York Giants (7-3)
"That is a very, very costly loss for us,'' Tom Coughlin said the other day, when it was determined that pass-rusher Mathias Kiwanuka was lost for the year with a broken left fibula. That will matter down the road -- against Chicago and Washington, and certainly in the finale against Tom Brady. But this week, the Giants need roughage to combat the Vikes running game, not a speed-rusher to frustrate the passer.
Giants 16, Vikings 13
Washington Redskins (5-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
This is the fourth Washington-at-Tampa Bay game in the last three years. It's true: The Bucs have played Washington in Raymond James Stadium more in the last three years than they've played any team in the league at home. (Three straight regular-season meetings, plus the 'Skins' 20-17 playoff nailbiter there in '05, when Chris Simms threw the perfect pass in the end zone that Edell Shepherd couldn't hold onto.) "It feels like we're in the NFC East,'' Jon Gruden said the other day. I like Washington, because I'm really starting to like what I see in Jason Campbell.
Redskins 30, Buccaneers 23
New Orleans Saints (4-6) at Carolina Panthers (4-6)
The Saints have lost four, won four, lost two. By rights, they should lose two more, I suppose. But these are the expansionesque Panthers we're talking about, with as bad a quarterback situation as there is in the league. Remember when Vinny Testaverde was a warm and fuzzy story, not a grim reality?
Saints 16, Panthers 12
Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)
I can just see it now. Chris Kelsay jogs onto the field in Jacksonville on Sunday, and Dick Jauron sidles up to him. "Hey,'' Jauron says. "What's that piece of black metal on your neck?" Kelsay, confused, picks it off and starts examining it. Jauron knows immediately what it is. "Shrapnel," he says, "left over from the New England game."
Jaguars 27, Bills 10
San Francisco 49ers (2-8) at Arizona Cardinals (5-5)
The Niners have 10 touchdowns in 10 games. I'm just staying with the average here in what looks fairly certain to be San Francisco's ninth loss in a row.
Cardinals 31, 49ers 13
Denver Broncos (5-5) at Chicago Bears (4-6)
This is the kind of year it is in Chicago: The Bears can't find a quarterback, they traded the wrong running back to the Jets, Bernard Berrian hasn't turned into Willie Gault, their defense lost its bite, Brian Urlacher's back hurts all the time, Mike Brown's hurt again ... and this win could move them within a game of a wild-card spot with three of the last five games at home.
Bears 24, Broncos 20
Baltimore Ravens (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (5-5)
The real question is: How long am I going to be a sucker for the Chargers? If I could count on Kyle Boller to play a B game here, I'd pick Baltimore, but he makes two throws every game that make you say: What in the world led him to THAT decision?
Chargers 23, Ravens 21
Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) at New England Patriots (10-0)
I think Donovan McNabb will play, but getting hurt (sprained ankle, sprained thumb) in November for the fourth time in the last six years leads me to think that Andy Reid will be led to make this inevitable decision after the season: whacking McNabb and going with '07 second-round pick Kevin Kolb.
Patriots 40, Eagles 14
Miami Dolphins (0-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)
I pick a relatively close game not because I think the Steelers won't play well. I think the message from Mike Tomlin will be heard loud and clear, and several times, this week. "Every time you take the field, you've got to come to play,'' Tomlin said the other day. "That's what great teams do.'' I think Miami will play OK down the stretch, in part because Cam Cameron's going to put the kid quarterback, John Beck (only 9-of-22 in his debut at Philly last week), in position to succeed. Success is a relative term on an 0-10 team, but I think Beck's going to have some.
Steelers 27, Dolphins 17
Lang's picks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
no mention of GB-Det
THURSDAY 25 DIME
USC TROJANS - (If your man has -3 1/2 then you buy the half and only lay 3. You NEVER, I repeat you NEVER get beat by the hook. Always buy the half and only lay -3)
15 DIME
Dallas Cowboys
5 DIME
Atlanta Falcons
FREE PICK - Indy-Falcons UNDER - (For analysis see daily video)
analysis by 9 am eastern
Kelso Thanksgiving
Chairmans Club = 10 units Detroit +3 v. Green Bay
Best Bets Club
10 units Ariz St +3 v. USC
5 units Atlanta Falcons +11.5 v. Indy
ppp opinions
green bay
green bay over
dallas
dalls over
atlanta
atlanta under
asu
asu under
Winning Points Online NFL POD
***BEST BET
Dallas* over NY Jets by 27
The Cowboys might appear to be vulnerable after
squeaking past Washington on Sunday, their third
straight division win. But intra-division games are
always tricky, and they went into it with an eye
towards this, knowing that whatever happened,
they had to be here again in four days. They did
what they needed to do.
Letdown? Nah. The Cowboys are 9-1. They want the
best record in the NFC. Green Bay is tied with
them and they meet next week. Packers' result
in Detroit will be known when this one kicks off,
but regardless, the Cowboys can make next week
less important if they win this, and the Jets' win
vs. the Steelers serves notice to the Cowboys that
they need to come out and put this team away.
Instead of feeding the ball to Marion Barber early,
look for Julius -- Mr. Thanksgiving Day -- Jones
to be busting some long runs to set up killer
pass plays that build a lead that is salted away by
Barber and the offensive line wearin' em down.
An early Dallas lead means that raw starting QB
Kellen Clemens will be attempting to lead a road
comeback against a good pass rush.
Who remembers what the Jets did last year the
week after their extra-week aided upset at
New England? How about a 10-0 loss on their
home field to Chicago? DALLAS, 34-7.
Cappers Access
Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
Thur) NFL Packers Lions 3 Lions
(Thur) NFL Cowboys Jets 14 Cowboys
(Thur) NFL Colts Falcons 12 Falcons
Thur) CFB USC Arizona st 3 Arizona St
Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14 ~ 6 this month
The total on tonight's Atlanta-Indianapolis game has dropped from 42.5 to 41. Will the teams score 40 or less? Or will they send the contest over the total by combining for 42 or more?
`````````````````````````````````````````````````` `````````````
Both clubs will do everything in their power to avoid turning over the ball. INDIANAPOLIS, 6-0 UNDER in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons, has gone under the total in four of its five road starts and seven-of-10 games overall. Atlanta played good defense against its three previous AFC South opponents though it lost two of the games. It fell 13-7 at Jacksonville in Week 2, beat Houston at home in Week 4 26-16 then lost the following week at Tennessee 20-13. The Falcons too have played seven unders in their 10 games and are 23-10 UNDER in November home games since 1992.
Play on: Under
__________________
BIG AL's ____________5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH_________________ Detroit
Scott Spreitzer________ 25*_____________________________________ Detroit
Dr. Bob._____________________2*_______________________ _________Detroit
lem banker __________________________________________________ _____det
Neri Sports ________________2*________________________________ ___Detroit
Marc Lawrence__________________________________________ ___________Det
Trushel Sports _________20*_________________________________Detro it +3.5
DR CHAD_____________5 unit_________________________________GREEN BAY
CW Winner Phone Picks___cold as ice lately________________________Green Bay
Northcoast __________Top Marq____________________________________G B -3
Northcoast _________Uncle Phi's Play 3______________________________G B -3
Gold Medal Club________15*________________________Green Bay -1.5 First half
Northcoast ___________Reg____________________________________ _G B U 47
VICTOR KING'S_______________3*_____________PACKERS/LIONS UNDER TOTAL
Gold Medal Club ________15*________________________GB OVER 23.5 First half
DR. BOB____________2 Star Selection_________DETROIT 26 Green Bay (-3.5) 22
Burns NFL__________________________________________LIONS (+3 or better)
Kelso Chairmans Club __________10 units______________Detroit +3 v. Green Bay
ppp opinions__________________________________________ _______green bay
ppp opinions__________________________________________ ___green bay over
HighDesertSports__ ____________NFL GOY___________________Lions +3.5 -110
HighDesertSports____________________________GB/DET OVER 23.5 1st half -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ GB/DET OVER 46.5 -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ ________Lions +160 ML
Norm Hitzges______________________________________Green Bay -3 vs Detroit
computer spts___________________comp____GREEN BAY/DETROIT UNDER 46 1/2
Cappers Access_Sport______Favorite Underdog Line_____________________Lions
Northcoast _____________2____________________________________ Dallas -14
Marc Lawrence__________________________________________ __________Boys
Phenom __________________________________________________ ______Dallas
Neri Sports ________________2*________________________________ ___Dallas
CW Winner Phone Picks___cold as ice lately___________________________NY Jets
lem banker __________________________________________________ _____jets
Wunderdog _________________4 units____________________New York Jets +14
Northcoast ___________Reg___________________________________D allas U 47
Gold Medal Club ________15*______________________________Dallas UNDER 48
Lang's picks_____________15 DIME__________________________Dallas Cowboys
Burns NFL_ _____________________________UNDER jets/cowboys (46 or better)
ppp opinions__________________________________________ ___________dallas
ppp opinions__________________________________________ ________dalls over
HighDesertSports_________________________________N YJ/DAL OVER 47.5 -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ ___Jets +8 1st half -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ ________Jets +14 -105
Norm Hitzges_____________________________Double Play--Dallas -14 vs NY Jets
Winning Points Online NFL POD___***BEST BET________Dallas* over NY Jets by 27
Cappers Access_Sport______Favorite Underdog Line__________________Cowboys
Wunderdog__________________4 units_____________________Arizona State +3
dr bob____________________3*___________ Arizona St +3.5, 2* at +3 or worse.
Neri Sports ________________3*________________________________ _Az State
DR CHAD _____________3 units___________________________ARIZONA STATE.
Pork Chop__________________3*__________________________ _______Ariz. St.
Jeff Bonds________________double-dime bet__________________Arizona St. 3.5
Northcoast ___________Reg____________________________________ __U S C -3
Johnathan Stone _________________________________________________U sc -3
Northcoast __________Top Marq__________________________________Usc U 49
Cappers Access_Sport______Favorite Underdog Line_________________Arizona St
ppp opinions__________________________________________ ____________asu
ppp opinions__________________________________________ ________asu under
Kelso Best Bets Club____________10 units___________________Ariz St +3 v. USC
burns college football___________________________OVER usc/asu (51 or better)
Lang's picks_____THURSDAY 25 DIME_____________________USC TROJANS –
(If your man has -3 1/2 then you buy the half and only lay 3)
wsex______________________________________________ _______usc-3 at -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ _________USC -13 -105
HighDesertSports_________________________________ USC/ASU UNDER 49 -105
HighDesertSports_____________NCAA FB GOY___________________USC -3 EVEN
huddle up spts___________________comp___________________Ariz ona State +3'
Gold Medal Club _________15*__________________________________Indy -11.5
Phenom __________________________________________________ _______Indy
DR CHAD_____________5 unit______________________________________INDY.
Wunderdog ____________Comp______________________________Atla nta +11.5
Northcoast ___________Reg____________________________________ _Atl. + 11
Marc Lawrence _________________________________________________A tlanta
Neri Sports ________________1*________________________________ __Atlanta
Wunderdog__________________3 units________________________Atlanta +11.5
lem banker __________________________________________________ _____ata
Northcoast ___________Reg____________________________________ _Alt. U 41
Wunderdog__________________4 units___________________Ata UNDER 41 -110
Gold Medal Club _________15*_______________________________Indy OVER 41
Greg Shaker______________triple-dime bet ________________IND-ATL Over 42.0
Trey Johnson___________ 10*______________________________________Colts
Lang's picks______________5 DIME__________________________ Atlanta Falcons
Lang's picks_____________FREE PICK____________________Indy-Falcons UNDER
Kelso Best Bets Club ____________5 units_______________Atlanta +11.5 v. Indy
ppp opinions__________________________________________ __________atlanta
ppp opinions__________________________________________ _____atlanta under
HighDesertSports_________________________________I NDY/ATL UNDER 41 -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ ________Colts -12 -105
Mike Rose______________________comp______Colts/Atlanta Falcons u41.0 (-110)
Marc Lawrence__________________comp__________________un der Colts-Falcons
arthur ralph spts_________________comp________________________I NDY Colts
Cappers Access_Sport______Favorite Underdog Line____________________Falcons
HighDesertSports__________________________________ ______G.Mason +2 -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ _______Mia-Oh -3 -105
razor sharp spts__________________comp________MIAMI-OH over South Alabama
tv hotline_______________________comp________________ ______MIAMI-OH -3
easy money-____________________comp_____________SOUTH CAROLINA -2 1/2
dr. vegas_______________________comp__________Villanov a -6.5 over C. Florida
#1 spts________________________comp____________CENTRA L FLORIDA + 6 1/2
Jimmy The Moose________________comp___________________Detroi t Red Wings
College Football Picks
11/22/2007
7:00:00 PM Southern California Trojans (-3)
over ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
ASA PLAY ON: #109 USC (-3.5) over Arizona State Thursday – 7:00 pm CST
There’s no doubt that the Trojans haven’t matched the expectations bestowed upon them as there two losses have all but eliminated them from national title contention. But the Pac-10 championship, which USC has won five straight years, is still up for grabs. You can be sure that the Trojans will not surrender that crown easily. The first step would be beating Arizona State, which is currently first atop the conference standings. A win over Arizona State would move the Trojans into a tie with the Sun Devils with a 6-2 conference mark and give USC the tiebreaker. Oregon still has a good shot at the conference title as well but the Trojans aren’t concerned about that. All they’re concerned about is beating the Sun Devils. That shouldn’t be a problem. USC has beaten Arizona State seven straight times, going 5-2 ATS in those games and winning by an average of 19 points per game. Expect USC to improve that winning streak to eight in this one. The Sun Devils are starting to show their holes after starting the season 8-0. They’ve lost two straight ATS, falling 35-23 to Oregon and beating a down UCLA team by just four points last week. Arizona State’s offense has been good this year but it will struggle to score points against this USC defense. Quarterback Rudy Carpenter is nursing a bad thumb that has noticeably affected his game. He completed just 51 percent of his passes last week against UCLA and if he can’t throw with optimum accuracy, the Sun Devils are in trouble. Arizona State, which will be without running back Ryan Torain, will struggle to run the ball against USC’s 10th-ranked rush defense. The Trojans are third in the nation with just 267.9 total yards allowed per game and sixth with just 16 points surrendered per game. The Trojans, which are coming off a bye week that allowed them extra time to prepare for this game, have played in critical games like this ever since Pete Carroll returned to the sidelines. The Sun Devils have not played many games of this importance. Expect USC’s big-game experience to win as the Trojans celebrate Thanksgiving with a win. Take USC minus the points.
11/23/2007
8:00:00 PM 3,BOISE STATE BRONCOS
-vs-Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
ASA PLAY ON: #25 Boise State (+3) over Hawaii Friday – 9:05 pm EST
The Western Athletic Conference crown is on the line in this game with Boise State looking for its sixth straight conference title. The Broncos have owned the WAC since entering the league in 2001 and they’ll continue to own with a win over Hawaii. Boise State hasn’t lost to Hawaii since joining the WAC, going a perfect 6-0 SU and winning by an average of 21.2 points per game. Hawaii is one of just two undefeated teams left in college football but it has had an easy route to its 10-0 record. Its eight wins over Division I teams have come against teams with a combined record of a miserable 28-59, with only one of those wins coming against a team with a winning record. And the Warriors haven’t exactly been dominating these bad teams, going just 3-5 ATS and narrowly winning games over 5-6 Louisiana Tech, 4-7 San Jose State and 5-5 Nevada. Boise State is far superior then either of those teams. The Broncos proved exactly what they were capable of in their upset win over Oklahoma in the season’s most memorable game last year. Boise State has experience in these types of games while Hawaii does not. Expect that to make a huge difference. Look for Boise State’s great rushing attack to play a large role in this game. The Broncos are 23rd in the country with more than 200 rushing yards per game and their ability to control the clock on the ground will keep the explosive Hawaii offense off the field. The Warriors offense is considered one of the best in the country but Boise State’s is no slouch. The Broncos are third in the nation with 44.2 points per game and should have no problem scoring against Hawaii’s shaky stop unit. The Warriors offense showed some weaknesses in last week’s narrow win over Nevada. Quarterback Colt Brennan, who is probable for this game but still shaky, took only two snaps in that game due to complications suffered from a concussion a game earlier. He is one hit away from exiting again, which would force Hawaii to go to backup Tyler Graunke. The Warriors scored just 28 points under his guidance, three touchdowns fewer than their season average. Boise State has been the underdog just once in this series, and not only did it cover, it won outright, covering the spread by 11 points. Overall, the Broncos are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as the underdog. Expect another ATS win in this one. Take Boise State plus the points.
SCORE
Dallas 400%
Detriot 300%
Az St. 300%
Ferringo
THANKSGIVING SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #103 Green Bay (-3) over Detroit (12:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 22)
I know that the Packers have had a horrendous time in Detroit as a favorite over the past few years but I think that this Lions team is reverting back to the Lions we’re used to. They can’t protect the quarterback and matchups – pass defense vs. pass offense, etc. – are statistically very one-sided. I think this line should be around -6.0 so we’re getting value here. I’m looking for the Packers to continue to roll.
COLLEGE SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #116 Mississippi State (-6.5) over Mississippi (12:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 23)
Note: This is our SEC Game of the Year.
The home team has won seven of eight in this series and I just think that the Bulldogs are the more physical, more disciplined team. Ole Miss had a horrible letdown after their grueling Florida game early in the year and after a tough cover at home against LSU I’m looking for a similar deflation. Ole Miss is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.
4-Unit Play. Take #150 Kentucky (-3) over Tennessee (1:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
It is always a huge red flag when an unranked team is favored over a ranked team. Tennessee is 1-3 on the road this year and got hammered by Alabama, California, and Florida. Kentucky has been the whipping boy in this series but are good enough to turn the tide. UK has covered three of four in this one and I’m looking for a double-digit win.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #133 Missouri (+2) over Kansas (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 23)
I believe that the Tigers are the better, more battle-tested team here and that playing in their home state is going to give them all the advantage they need. This is a value play, getting us the better team with the points, and I will be on the moneyline on this game as well.
3-Unit Play. Take #144 South Carolina (+3) over Clemson (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
Clemson had its bubble burst last weekend and I think that with two weeks to prepare Steve Spurrier is going to have his charges ready to roll in this rivalry game. The Tigers have owned this matchup recently but I think that this is a better USC team than we’ve seen in some time. This is also a statement about the SEC being better than the ACC.
3-Unit Play. Take #173 Ball State (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
These are two teams heading in opposite directions and Ball State has absolutely dominated on the road in this series. The Cardinals have been one of the best bets in college football this year and I think they make a statement win here to give themselves better positioning for a bowl game. NIU wants to throw the ball and play a high-scoring affair. That plays right into BSU's hands.
2-Unit Play. Take #190 Stanford (-3.5) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
Even though the Irish managed a win over feeble Duke last week I still think they are one of the worst teams in Division I. Stanford is no prize, but you know they’ve had this game circled and any team with the talent to beat USC is good enough to beat this Notre Dame squad.
NFL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 36.0 Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Jaguars have been a fantastic ‘over’ play in the 34.0 to 36.0 total range, covering nearly 80 percent in this range over their last 20. The Jaguars have the 27th ranked pass defense in the league and just lost their defensive leader, Mike Peterson. Without Peterson and Marcus Stroud the Bills should have some room to breath. Further, there is a system at work here that has hit at a 73-percent clip over the past five years that we’re going to play.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #203 Buffalo (+7.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The road team is 5-2 ATS in this series and Buffalo has covered four out of five. They got embarrassed last week by the Patriots, but they are an amazing 14-1 ATS in games after playing New England. Jacksonville has some injury issues and I’m not confident enough in their offense as a whole to go out and put up huge numbers. Also, Buffalo is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
3-Unit Play. Take #217 San Francisco (+10.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Cardinals are not used to being posted as this large of a favorite and I don’t think I trust them to cover this large number. This is a pretty intense rivalry and this is just too many points. Arizona has been winning lately, but not blowing anyone out. The road team has covered four straight, the Cards are 3-10 as a home favorite of 3.5 or more, and if Arizona can lose to Vinny Testaverde and Carolina at home they can lose to Trent Dilfer and San Fran.
3-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+3.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 25)
Neither team will be able to stop one another so the value is in the points. Cleveland is like Arizona - they've been winning and playing a lot of close games. I think that Houston has regained its mojo with Andre Johnson back and if they could handle New Orleans' offense last week they can get the better of the Browns, who are due for a letdown after back-to-back grueling divisional games.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 New York Giants (-7) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
Here is a case of just taking the better team. I think that the G-Men have toughened up against the run and that they can defend well enough to take away what the Vikings want to do.
ATS FINANCIAL
3 units Over 46 GB
3 units Dallas
Hoops
1 units W Kentucky
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ATS LOCK
4 GB
3 Dallas
Hoops
3 Cal Irvine
ATS FINANCIAL
3 units Over 46 GB
3 units Dallas
Hoops
1 units W Kentucky
````````````````````````````````````
ATS LOCK
4 GB
3 Dallas
Hoops
3 Cal Irvine