Tennessee Titans vs. Detroit Lions
The Titans lost to the Jets 34-13 as a 5.5-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (40.5).
Kerry Collins threw for 243 yards with a touchdown for Tennessee, while Chris Johnson rushed for 46 yards on 10 carries.
The Lions lost to Tampa Bay 38-20 as an 8-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42).
Daunte Culpepper threw for 121 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for Detroit and Calvin Johnson caught three passes for 66 yards and a touchdown.
Current streak:
Detroit has lost 11 straight games.
Team records:
Tennessee: 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS
Detroit: 0-11 SU, 4-7 ATS
Tennessee most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 10-0
When playing outside the division are 8-2
Detroit most recently:
When playing in November are 1-9
When playing on turf are 1-9
After being outgained are 0-10
When playing outside the division are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Detroit is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Next up:
Tennessee home to Cleveland, Sunday, December 7
Detroit home to Minnesota, Sunday, December 7
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Seahawks lost to Washington 20-17 as a 3-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (40).
Matt Hasselbeck threw for 103 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions for Seattle and Maurice Morris rushed for 103 yards on 14 carries with a TD reception.
The Cowboys defeated San Francisco 35-22 as a 9.5-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (45.5).
Tony Romo passed for 341 yards with three touchdowns for Dallas, while Terrell Owens caught seven passes for 213 yards and a touchdown in the win.
Current streak:
Seattle has lost 4 straight games.
Dallas has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Seattle: 2-9 SU, 4-6-1 ATS
Dallas: 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS
Seattle most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 2-8
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing outside the division are 1-9
Dallas most recently:
When playing in November are 9-1
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games
Next up:
Seattle home to New England, Sunday, December 7
Dallas at Pittsburgh, Sunday, December 7
Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Cardinals lost to the Giants 37-29 as a 3-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (48.5).
Tim Hightower rushed for 21 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries for Arizona and Kurt Warner passed for 351 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
The Eagles lost to Baltimore 36-7 as a 1.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (39.5).
Donovan McNabb complete 8-of-18 passes for 59 yards and two interceptions for Philadelphia before getting benched in the second half, while Brian Westbrook rushed for 39 yards on 14 carries in the loss.
Team records:
Arizona: 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS
Philadelphia: 5-5-1 SU, 6-5 ATS
Arizona most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing in November are 3-6-1
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 8-1-1
When playing on outside the division are 7-2-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing Arizona
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Arizona
Next up:
Arizona home to St. Louis, Sunday, December 7
Philadelphia at NY Giants, Sunday, December 7
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Texas Longhorns
Texas A & M was pounded 41-21 by Baylor in Week 12 as an 8-point road underdog. The 62 points made it OVER the posted total of 59.
Jorvorskie Lane ran for two touchdowns in a losing effort.
Colt McCoy threw for two touchdowns to lead Texas over the Kansas 35-7 in Week 12.
The Longhorns covered the 14-point spread, while the combined score played UNDER the day's posted total of 65.5.
Current streak:
Texas A&M has lost 2 straight games.
Texas has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Texas A&M: 4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS
Texas: 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS
Texas A&M most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 3-7
Texas most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas A&M's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas A&M's last 7 games
Texas A&M is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Texas A&M is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Texas
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Texas is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Texas A&M
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Texas A&M
TENNESSEE (10 - 1) at DETROIT (0 - 11)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
TENNESSEE is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
TENNESSEE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
SEATTLE (2 - 9) at DALLAS (7 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 0-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA (7 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5 - 1)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TEXAS A&M (4 - 7) at TEXAS (10 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
TEXAS is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS A&M is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS A&M is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE vs. DETROIT
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
SEATTLE vs. DALLAS
Seattle is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Arizona
Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
TEXAS A&M vs. TEXAS
Texas A&M is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Texas A&M is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Texas A&M
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Texas A&M
Tennessee at Detroit
Tennessee: 7-0 ATS as road favorite
Detroit: 0-6 ATS at home in weeks 10 through 13
Seattle at Dallas
Seattle: 1-8 ATS Away if the total is between 42.5 and 49
Dallas: 12-1 Over off ATS win
Arizona at Philadelphia
Arizona: 22-8 Over after the first month of the season
Philadelphia: 16-5 ATS after a loss by 21+ points
Texas A&M at Texas
Texas A&M: 4-15 ATS Away off bye week
Texas: 28-12 ATS off road conference win
Thanksgiving NFL Football Feast
Doug Upstone
Many are clamoring to have the Detroit Lions not play on Thanksgiving. Why, because the Lions are terrible, have been and will be for the foreseeable future. But this country needs traditions, things that we can count on, not changing everything for the sake of change. If you don’t like the game, here is a thought, don’t watch it and talk to your family or relatives. Enjoy the company of another; just don’t whine about the Detroit Lions. In fact to make it more interesting, bet the game or have everybody at the house pick a side with the spread, it’s sure to add to the camaraderie of the day rooting for certain teams.
Tennessee at Detroit (Lions +11, 44.5)
Dating back to 1934, the Lions have been a proud part of the American celebration of Thanksgiving Day. They’ve played 68 games on the national Holiday and take a 33-33-2 record into this year’s contest against Tennessee. Detroit (4-7 ATS) has dropped four straight on the fourth Thursday of November while being outscored by a lopsided 121-50 margin, yet even worse is the fact it has lost 12 in a row and 17 of 18 on Sundays.
Combine the Lions 0-11 start to 2008 with the Titans 10-1 (9-1-1 ATS) mark and the NFL nearly had the setting for the perfect storm at Ford Field. But even if Tennessee enters the stadium under a ladder, breaks a mirror in the locker room and spills the salt during its pre-game turkey meal with extra tryptophan, it should feast on a team that last celebrated a win before the holidays in ‘07. The Titans have won and covered their last seven games on the road.
After losing to the Jets, 34-13, the Titans need a few more wins to wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Now that veteran quarterback Kerry Collins has shown he can win games for Tennessee—like he did in Weeks 10 and 11 in Chicago and Jacksonville—it’s hard to find something to knock. The offense is balanced, the defense is smothering and the special teams are pretty special. The appearance of the Jets loss was New York just wanted it more and was set up to beat them literally at their own game. Tennessee is still a delectable 25-10-2 ATS versus the NFC.
Collins, whose been sacked six times in 310 pass attempts, has only nine touchdowns but five came in the last three games. It took him eight starts to throw for 200 yards in a game, but it’s rarely a necessity with a backfield tandem of LenDale White (11 touchdowns) and Chris Johnson (833 yards, five scores) and a defense allowing 15.0 points per game. Though when the Bears and Jaguars shut the running game down, Collins delivered.
While Tennessee is fully loaded, Detroit has a couple of budding stars capable of turning the franchise around a season or two down the road. Second-year wide receiver Calvin Johnson is developing a knack for big plays but can stand to be more consistent. He’s got six touchdowns in the last seven games and six receptions of at least 40 yards on the year. In addition, rookie running back Kevin Smith has 294 yards in the last three games after totaling 305 in the first eight. If you want an upside, The Lions are 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last three seasons.
Bodoglife.com has the Lions on the receiving end of 11.5-points with a total of 44. Detroit is on a run for four straight Over’s and is 7-0 OVER after five or more consecutive losses.
Thanksgiving Tasty Angle- Thursday home underdogs of 7.5 or more points are worse than overcooked sweet potatoes at 2-8-1 ATS.
Seattle at Dallas (Cowboys -12.5, 47)
After meeting in a memorable NFC wild-card playoff game in 2006, the Cowboys and Seahawks each captured a division title last season with a combined 23 victories. But neither has defended it well, and in Seattle’s case the playoffs haven’t even been on the radar from the opening kickoff of head coach Mike Holmgren’s final year at the helm.
This season will mark the first since 2002 that the Seahawks don’t finish atop the NFC West and the first since ’01 they’ll be playoffs spectators. Seattle opened with a 24-point defeat in Buffalo and never really sniffed .500 all season. At 2-9 and 4-6-1 ATS, the Seahawks are likely to finish with their worst record since 1992 when they went 2-14 and set a league mark for offensive futility with 140 points. This year’s scoring unit isn’t that awful, scoring 18.8 points per game. Yet, when your only wins on the season are against NFC West foes St. Louis and San Francisco, it’s obvious the season has been a painful endeavor. The team formally known as “the Seabags” is 0-7 ATS vs. offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game over the last two years.
Defensively, Seattle has been torched time and again and will have a hard time keeping the Cowboys out of the end zone. Opponents have outgained the Seahawks by a hefty 130 yards a game (151 YPG on the road), with the majority of the difference coming through the air. Tony Romo should be all smiles working against a defense that’s yielded nearly 3,000 yards passing with only five interceptions. Seattle picked off 20 passes in 2007. Seattle is 6-14-1 ATS as non-division away underdogs.
In his second game back from a broken finger, Romo threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns to lead a 35-22 victory over San Francisco that allowed Dallas to keep pace in the playoff race. The positive vibe emitting from the Cowboys locker room is that of Terrell Owens, who got is quarterback back, with seven catches for 213 yards to help Dallas. Owens' total was the second-most of his career, behind only the 283 yards he had in the 2000 game in which he caught an NFL-record 20 passes. Facing the league’s next to last pass defense should make T.O’s face light-up more than a bite of fresh pumpkin pie. The Boys are 8-1 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 since 2006.
The Dallas defense could have a feast of there own against the sinking Seattle offense. The Seattle offensive line could not move a dish of mashed potatoes, let alone the Cowboys defense. The term “jailbreak” could come up more often than the size of this year’s bird. Dallas is 19-6 ATS in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging 285 or fewer yards per game.
The Seahawks haven’t played on Thanksgiving since 1986 when they defeated Dallas 31-14. Including the playoff game a few years back, the Cowboys lead the all-time series 6-5. Soon to be defunct head coach mike Holmgren has seen his Seattle team post 10-21 ATS record vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt.
Thanksgiving Tasty Angle- Home teams that were favorites by six or more in prior game are 11-3 ATS on Thursday’s.
Arizona at Philadelphia (Eagles -3, 46.5)
Limping into Thanksgiving after losing by 29 points in Baltimore and enduring the embarrassment of tying lowly Cincinnati, Philadelphia now has to pull itself together and slow down a former NFC East rival in Arizona. Coming up on the losing end would finish off any playoff hopes for the second straight season.
It’s a shame most folks do not have the NFL Network, since the Cardinals possess a high-flying offense that boasts an MVP candidate in Kurt Warner, who’s on pace to throw for more than 5,000 yards. Warner’s already at 3,506 yards and has thrown 21 touchdowns, including 11 to Anquan Boldin and six to Larry Fitzgerald. He has recorded seven 300-yard passing games, including five in a row. This group is #3 in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points per game. Despite the offense, the Redbirds have to overcome being 9-20 ATS as road dogs after SU and cover defeat.
Although he has struggled to get going since taking over the starting job in Week 9, running back Tim Hightower has been punishing in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He scored twice in last week’s 37-29 loss to the New York Giants and has nine touchdowns in 106 attempts.
For all the acclaim the offense receives, Arizona has been effective in slowing down the run. Led by linebackers Karlos Dansby and Gerald Hayes, the squad has allowed fewer than 90 yards rushing per game and eight rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals are in potentially tough spot against a burdened opponent off a loss and they scored less than 22 points, with 6-20 ATS record.
The aforementioned 13-13 tie put the Eagles in a corner and has forced head coach Andy Reid’s team to win in hostile environments like New York and Washington. The last time Philadelphia was at Lincoln Financial Field it allowed an astounding 401 total yards to the Giants, 219 of which were on the ground.
Donovan McNabb may lead one of the league’s top passing attacks (255 yards per game) but he was benched last week after coughing up the ball three times in the first half. McNabb completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes against the Giants, Bengals and Ravens and has cooled off since the Week 7 bye. Coach Andy Reid has said McNabb would start, yet one has to wonder if that is byproduct of short week rather than preference. Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS since 2003 after scoring 10 or less points.
Rookie wideout DeSean Jackson has been a nice addition with a team-leading 47 receptions for 699 yards but has only one touchdown catch. Throw in the fact that no other receiver has more than 30 receptions, and you see why the team has been in a rut. Even Brian Westbrook (34 grabs) has been stymied, for a team that is 0-7 ATS off consecutive road games.
The NFL Network will have this NFC contest for everyone who is stuffed and had their nap starting at 8:15 Eastern.
Thanksgiving Dessert Angle- If both teams were underdogs in last game, the home teams is 7-3 ATS and the UNDER is 7-3.
Titans at Lions
By Brad Young
The Thanksgiving tradition of Detroit hosting a football game continues Thursday with the home team still searching for its first victory of the season. This contest with Tennessee almost pitted an undefeated team against a winless team until the Titans were upset in Week 12.
Both teams will deal with a short week of preparation, but the Lions have the advantage of playing the second contest of a three-game homestand. Tennessee continues a stretch of alternating seven home and away games through the end of the regular season.
The Titans are eyeing this contest as a way to get back on the winning track and continue their push for homefield advantage through the upcoming postseason. Detroit is hoping not to get embarrassed on national television. The Lions are 35-32-1 when playing on Thanksgiving, but have not won since 2003 when they upended NFC North rival Green Bay, 22-14.
Caesars Palace installed Tennessee as an 11-point road ‘chalk’ over Detroit, with the total set at 44. CBS Sports will provide coverage of Thursday’s Thanksgiving contest beginning at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Tennessee (10-1 straight up, 9-2 against the spread) saw its undefeated season go up in flames after Sunday’s setback to the New York Jets as a 5 1/2-point home favorite, 34-13. The combined 47 points went ‘over’ the 40-point closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘under’ outings.
The game was close until the Jets outscored the Titans in the second half, 24-10. Tennessee finished the contest trailing New York in first downs (28-16), rushing yards (192-45) and time of possession (40:30-19:30).
Quarterback Kerry Collins completed 21-of-39 passes for 243 yards with a touchdown, connecting with wideout Justin McCareins four times for 43 yards. Chris Johnson paced the ground game with 10 carries for 46 yards in the setback.
Detroit (0-11 SU, 4-7 ATS) is still searching for its first victory of the season after losing to Tampa Bay Sunday as a 7 ½-point home underdog, 38-20. The combined 58 points eclipsed the 41-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to cash the fourth consecutive contest.
The Lions squandered a 17-0 first-quarter advantage, and ended the game trailing the Buccaneers in first downs (15-9), rushing yards (119-108), passing yards (136-99) and time of possession (32:11-27:49). Starting signal caller Daunte Culpepper was 8-of-20 passing for 121 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, while Kevin Smith had 16 carries for 86 yards.
Tennessee defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth (head), cornerback Nick Harper (foot), defensive tackle Jason Jones (foot) and defensive end William Hayes (knee) are ‘questionable’ versus the Lions.
Detroit running back Kevin Smith (shoulder) is ‘probable’ against the Titans, while defensive end Jared DeVries (hand) and quarterback Drew Stanton (concussion) are ‘doubtful.’ Linebacker Alex Lewis (chest), linebacker Ernie Sims (knee), fullback Jerome Felton (ankle), defensive end Dwayne White (calf), center Dominic Raiola (thumb), wide receiver Mike Furrey (concussion) and cornerback Keith Smith (groin) are ‘questionable.’
vegasinsider.com.
Seattle at Dallas
By Josh Jacobs
The Turkey is the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving Holiday as the Cowboys are the sports icon in the annual Thanksgiving Classic. So what better way to spend the holiday then to eat like a horse, drink like a fish and then to relax in the recliner with three NFL games ranging from 12:30 to 8:15 p.m. EST?
Getting right down to business has Dallas at 25-14-1 during Thanksgiving play dating back to 1966. The longest winning streak has seen America’s Team go for six wins in a row (from 1980 to 1985) while one tie was sprinkled in against the 49ers in 1969.
Alright so there’s the history lesson but what about some angles that the bettor can use to harness the most out of this matchup?
Seattle is taking the field this time around. Things have been less then happy in the Seahawks locker room. The last three games have been lost by an average margin of 3.7 PPG. But the real issue is Seattle’s problems at getting outgained in almost every conceivable category. Since Week 5 the Seahawks have been outyarded by an incredible 186.8 YPG.
Scoring 15.3 PPG in the last six is good reason for Seattle’s 5-1 record on the ‘under’. There’s a problem with a low scoring contest to emerge on Thursday. The Cowboys have gone 7-4 on the ‘over’ this season and are a near perfect 4-1 on the ‘over’ in five home games. In the last six of eight games Dallas scored 23.7 PPG while giving up 28.2 PPG to produce a sizzling 6-2 record on the ‘over’.
Brobury Sports has the Cowboys listed as 13-point home favorites with a total set at 46½. Seventy-one percent of the betting public is entrusting their money on Dallas in this contest while an unsupportive 53 percent of the public has decided to go for the +600 money line bet (bet $100 to make $600).
The X Factor for being on the right side of this total will rest in the health status of Seattle’s roster. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is only two games removed from recovering with nerve problems in his back and has turned in problematic performances since his return. The Seattle slinger has found his receivers for a low 54.3 passing percentage with a combined 273 yards, three scores and a damaging five interceptions.
Dallas has been a monster by cashing in five straight times in head-to-head games with the Seahawks. In what some may find surprising, books decided to make the Cowboys a ‘dog in each of those five contests. And let’s not forget the impeccable 4-1 record on the ‘under’.
It’s hard not to talk about the team from the ‘Big D’ without mentioning Tony Romo. Romo returned from a broken pinkie finger in Week 11, throwing just 198 yards with one score and two picks in a 14-10 win over the Redskins. But the field general found his way back onto the path last week after going deep for 341 yards with three trips into the end zone. On the season Romo is in possession of an 18/7 touchdown-interception ration.
One thing of note is that Romo’s only two defeats this season have resulted when the star QB has tossed 38 or more attempts. The Dallas signal caller is averaging 33.3 passing attempts this season.
There’s a large discrepancy in seasonal stats between the teams but Seattle feels it’s getting closer to taking its third win of the season. Are the double-digit points too rich for your blood or can a Cowboys team looking to make their push into a wild card spot in the NFC show what home field advantage is all about in this game?
Just remember that although the Seahawks have given gamblers something to cheer about with a 3-1 ATS record when playing on natural grass a 1-5-1 ATS billing on turf could stand in the way of placing that bet.
If Seattle continues to allow teams to build on 401.7 passing YPG it has in the last three there’s no doubt that Romo and the Cowboys will have us sleeping before the Turkey has us laid out on the couch.
Kickoff is scheduled to begin at 4:15 p.m. EST with FOX providing coverage for this contest.
vegasinsider.com
Arizona at Philadelphia
By Brian Edwards
Something tells me the Dallas-Seattle game is going to put some gamblers asleep on Thanksgiving Day. However, when those same bettors wake up to eat leftovers, they have a much better matchup to wager on in the prime-time slot.
That would be Arizona at Philadelphia, where the Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb Era could be on its last legs.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Philadelphia (5-5-1 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) as a 2½-point favorite with a total of 47½. As of Tuesday afternoon, most books had the Eagles at three (even money) with the total adjusted to 46½. The Cardinals are plus-120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120).
"When we opened Philadelphia at -3 this week, it sent our players' heads spinning," said Eddie Franks, the Head Oddsmaker at Brobury Sports. "Already 90% of the action is on the Cardinals, who bring one of the most dynamic offenses week in and week out. But we're not budging yet. Despite two weeks of shockingly bad performances by McNabb and Co., they have more going for them than players recognize."
Philadelphia is coming off an embarrassing 36-7 loss at Baltimore as a one-point road underdog. Trailing 10-7 at intermission, Reid did what he’d never done before during McNabb’s 10-year career – bench him.
McNabb had completed only 8-of-18 passes for 59 yards in the first half against the Ravens. Most importantly, he had coughed up a fumble and thrown two interceptions.
Philadelphia didn’t fare any better with Kevin Kolb under center. He connected on just 10-of-23 throws for 78 yards and two interceptions, including a 108-yard pick-six by Ed Reed.
Reid ended speculation that McNabb could be done playing for the Eagles by announcing that he would get the starting nod Monday morning. However, it’s crystal clear that barring an improbable run by the Eagles to make – and then advance in – the playoffs, McNabb’s days in Philadelphia are numbered at the end of this season.
And the same could be the case for Reid as well.
Arizona (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS) is accustomed to the type of turmoil hovering over the City of Brotherly Love, but not during this 2008 campaign in which the Cardinals are running away with the NFC West. Despite last week’s 37-29 loss to the Giants, they maintain a four-game lead in the division.
The decision by second-year head coach Ken Whisenhunt to go with veteran Kurt Warner ahead of Matt Leinart as the starting quarterback has turned into a stroke of genius. Warner is enjoying a banner season, completing 69.4 percent of his passes for 3,506 yards with a 21/8 touchdown-interception ratio.
He has the NFL’s best 1-2 tandem of wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Fitzgerald has 72 receptions for 1,010 yards and six touchdowns. Boldin, who missed two games with a broken jaw, has 73 catches for 879 yards and 11 TDs.
Whisenhunt recently made another tough decision, deciding to go with Tim Hightower as the team’s featured back ahead of veteran RB Edgerrin James, who was averaging a pedestrian 3.0 yards per carry. Hightower is averaging just 3.4 YPG, but he has found the end zone nine times.
Philadelphia RB Brian Westbrook has been dealing with several different injuries for much of the season. He has missed a pair of games and was downgraded to "questionable" this week when he missed Tuesday's practice. Westbrook has 760 yards (rushing and receiving) on 171 "touches" for eight TDs.
In fairness to McNabb, he has dealt with injuries to several of his top weapons. At various points in the season, WRs Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown, in addition to TE L.J. Smith, have missed games.
McNabb has a 14/10 TD-INT ratio this year compared to a 185/89 ratio for his career.
"While we don't expect McNabb to come out firing and light up the field, we do expect a much improved version who will hold onto the ball and manage his offense properly," Franks told VI. "Much has been said about Reid benching McNabb, but not enough has been said about how this will affect his supporting cast. Reid's move no doubt was meant to break down the complacency that has plagued this team recently, and we expect that it will be a successful move. McNabb is too seasoned and has rebounded from too many setbacks to not bounce back again."
Arizona is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 3-2 both SU and ATS at home.
The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for Arizona, but the ‘under’ is 4-2 in its road games. The ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run for the Cardinals (regardless of venue). The Eagles have watched the ‘under’ go 6-5 overall, 4-1 in their road assignments.
The NFL Network will provide television coverage at 8:15 p.m. Eastern.
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Texas A&M at Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns coming off their best defensive performance of the season in a 35-7 victory at Kansas close out the season hosting BIG 12 South basement dwelling Aggies. Longhorns still holding hopes for a national championship berth will need to avoid a third straight upset loss to rival Texas A&M. The Colt McCoy lead Horns averaging 43.5 points per game on 471.0 total yards aren't likely to falter vs Aggies sieve like defense allowing foes 36.4 PPG on a whopping 455.2 total yards. Oddsmakers currently have the Longhorns listed as 35.0 point favorites. Trends of interest: Horns are 16-4 (12-8 ATS) the past twenty in Austin winning by an average 18.7 PPG. Horns have covered 3-of-4 laying 31 or more points the last three seasons. Aggies who just lost to perennial doormat Baylor enter 5-0 ATS L3Y's after two consecutive losses but it is well to note Aggies are 4-15 ATS in road games after a bye week.
Key Numbers!!
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With Double Digit Dogs continuing to enjoy a ridiculous cash stuffing 16-2 run against the spread and suspecting some may be thinking of backing this weeks TURKEY'S while others consider stuffing betting accounts with the favorites we though it appropriate to share a few thought's, key numbers worth considering.
In Thursday's early matchup toothless Lions (0-11, 4-7 ATS) getting 11-points against visiting Titans (10-1, 9-2 ATS) makes them attractive knowing they've been DD Dogs four times this season grabbing the loot in each case. However, keep in mind offensively challenged Lions (17.5 PPG) are up against the leagues 2nd best scoring defense (15.0 PPG) a squad expected to tighten defensive screws after giving up a season high 34 to the Jets. Lions are 10-35-3 ATS at home scoring 21 or less points, 7-23 (11-18-1 ATS) in non-conference tilts including 1-3 (2-2 ATS) hosting AFC South opponents outscored 30.5 to 20.1. Titans haven't had to lay this kind of lumber since '03 but are 7-3 ATS in the situation and come in 7-2 ATS after suffering a 20 point defeat.
Later in the day it's the 2-9 (4-6-1 ATS) Seahawks taking thirteen against resurging Cowboys (7-4, 5-6 ATS). Another tempting proposition if it were not for the fact Seahawks sport the leagues second worst pass defense (259.2) something Romo and TO will certainly exploit. It is well to note 'Boys' are 21-16-2 ATS clipping teams over the air-ways (>225), a profitable 5-2 ATS home laying 12.5 to 14 points, a cash grabbing 11-3 ATS hosting NFC West opponents.
What bettors need to know: NFL Thanksgiving Day feast
By T.O. WHENHAM
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (+11, 44.5)
Line movement
To the surprise of no one, the public is heavily on the Titans. More than four out of five bets are on the favorites. Despite that, the line has stayed remarkably stable on the opening number of 11. It is available at 12 in some spots, but those are rare.
Total
The total opened at 43.5 points. In the face of heavy action on the over it has moved to 44 and, in several places, 44.5. Tennessee is 3-3 over/under in its last six games. Detroit's defense makes it hard to stay under, no matter how bad it plays offensively. The Lions have gone over five times and pushed once in their last six contests.
Series history
These teams have only played three times this decade. Tennessee has won all three, but by five points or fewer each time.
Common opponents
Despite being in different conferences, the teams have had five common opponents. The Titans are 6-0 (5-1 ATS) against that group. The winless Lions are, obviously, 0-5 against the group but they are 2-3 ATS.
Which Johnson is better?
For Detroit to stand a chance they need to do two things. They must establish Calvin Johnson so he can have a big day and shut down Chris Johnson.
Tennessee's Johnson is five weeks removed from a 100 yard rushing game and has had two of his three worst performances of the year in his last three outings. He stands a very good chance of a break out game against the worst rushing defense in the NFL.
Detroit's Johnson is the closest thing to a weapon the Lions have, though his effect is greatly diminished by the lack of a legitimate quarterback. Johnson is in deep against Tennessee's seventh rated pass defense, especially since he is nursing a sore thigh. On the other hand, Johnson averaged 22 yards per catch on three receptions and scored a touchdowns, sore leg and all, against Tampa Bay's second rated pass defense last weekend.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5, 46.5)
Line movement
Nearly 80 percent of bets have been on Dallas. That has forced the line to move steadily upwards. It opened at 10, and is now available as high as 13. Nothing about the movement indicates that smart money is aggressively in play.
Total
The total opened at 48 points and has since dropped to as low as 46.5. The last four meetings between these teams, stretching back to 2005, have all gone under. Seattle has gone under in five of its last six. Inept offense will do that. Though Dallas was an over machine earlier in the season, its has two unders in its last four.
Weather
The temperature will be comfortable - 72 degrees. There is a chance of late afternoon showers.
Series history
Though Seattle has won two of the last three meetings, Dallas has covered five in a row. It's a sign of how far the Seahawks have fallen in a short time that they were favored when the teams met in January.
Travel woes
This is the fifth time that Seattle has had to travel outside of the pacific time zone this year. It has yet to win, though has covered the last two spreads. This isn't a new phenomenon for this team. A much better squad was just 2-5 outside of its conference last year.
T.O. awakens
For perhaps only the second time all year, Terrell Owens looked like the ferocious beast that he can be last week. He piled up 213 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Niners. Interestingly, his other big game was against his other former team, the Eagles. Owens won't have the revenge factor against Seattle, but the Seahawks will be challenged to stack up to stop Marion Barber and not leave Owens in the single coverage he is so able to exploit. Seattle is second worst against the pass in the league, so it could be a long day.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 46.5)
Line movement
This is by far the best game of the day, so it is notable that the volume is far below the other two games and nearly half of the Dallas game. Those that are betting are relatively in agreement with 70 percent of bets on Arizona. That isn't enough to widely move the spread off the key number of three, though it is now down to 2.5 in a couple of spots.
Total
The number is stable at the opening 46.5 points, with movement to 47 in some places. The teams went over in their only recent meeting in 2005, but since neither Kurt Warner nor Donovan McNabb played in that game (or Brian Westbrook for that matter) it's hardly relevant. Arizona and its air show have gone over in six of its last eight but the two unders came in its last four. Philly has gone over just twice in its last five, but those have come in its last three.
Weather
It's going to be a clear and cold 35 degrees with basically no chance of precipitation. Winds won't be a significant factor, as they will top out at gusts of 10 mph. That's as good as you can hope for November in Philadelphia.
Is Clinching an incentive?
The Cardinals can clinch their first ever NFC West crown with a win here. That's a huge accomplishment but it might be easy to overcompensate for it as a motivator. The Cardinals are so far ahead and chased by such incompetence that they are virtually certain to win no matter what they do. Instead of a motivator, their massive lead to could induce lethargy.
300 yards. Ho-hum
It has been a month and a half since Warner has thrown less than 300 yards in a game. The public loves big passing performances and has is well aware of the five game streak. Their excitement might not be warranted, though. The big stats have only led to a 3-2 record straight up and ATS. Philly may not be able to slow down Warner, but it still stands a good chance if it can win the turnover battle. Arizona has won the turnover battle in the three wins, and lost it in the two losses.
What bettors need to know: Texas A&M at Texas
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ
Head to Head
This is the 115th meeting between the two schools. They have played every year since 1915.
The home team is 8-4 in the 12 years since the formation of the Big 12.
Texas is 14-1 since 1993 in home finales with its lone loss coming against A&M in 2006.
Against The Spread
Texas is 8-3 ATS. However, the Longhorns are 1-3 ATS in their last four after covering their first seven.
A&M is 4-7 ATS. They have gone over the posted total in eight of eleven games.
Revenge Minded
Texas will have revenge on its minds after being upset by A&M in each of the last two seasons.
In 2006 the Aggies shocked the Longhorns 12-7 in Austin, coming in as a 13.5-point underdog.
Last year’s game in College Station saw A&M winning again, this time as a 7-point dog, by a score of 38-30.
The Situation
The stakes are high for Texas. The school must beat A&M in order to keep its league championship and national championship hopes alive. Considering that BCS rankings would decide a possible three way tie in the Big 12 South, the Longhorns may be going for style points here as well. Winning a close one likely will not be enough. Mack Brown needs to win and he needs to win convincingly.
Speed Mismatch
In 2006 and 2007 the Aggies beat their in-state rival by pounding the ball and winning the battle of the trenches. That seems unlikely this year as A&M has a young offensive line that allows three sacks a game going up against a Texas defense that leads the nation in sacks.
The prospects get even worse for A&M on defense where they will encounter a massive speed deficit against the Texas offense.
The Longhorns, sixth in the nation in scoring offense (43.4 per game) and eighth in total offense (471 ypg), will be going against an A&M defense ranked 113th in the nation in total D.
The Aggies are allowing an average of 51.5 points in four games thus far against Big 12 South teams.
Texas Distracted?
A&M has to be hoping that the Longhorns will become so distracted by BCS possibilities and politics that they forget to bring their A-game on Thursday.
Colt McCoy commented to local reporters that he has been deluged by phone calls and texts from fans and supporters laying out potential BCS scenarios.
All of these scenarios will be meaningless if McCoy and company don’t take care of business against A&M.
One Last Hurrah for McGee?
Aggie senior QB Stephen McGee has led the upset victories over Texas the last two years. However, he has had an injury-riddled season in 2008, losing his starting job to sophomore Jerrod Johnson in the process.
Johnson looked good initially but seems to have regressed in the last two games. If he struggles early on Thursday McGee could see action off the bench.
Line Moves
Texas opened as a 33.5-point favorite and was bet up to 35.5 before settling in at the current number of 35.
The over/under opened at 68.5 and has come down a point to 67.5.
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 13
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Tennessee at Detroit (+11)
Why Titans cover: Are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games. Lions have league’s worst run defense. Detroit has lost last four Thanksgiving games.
Why Lions cover: The Titans’ once potent rushing attack is sputtering, averaging 59.7 yards and 2.5 per carry over the last three games. LenDale White is disgruntled and they are coming off their first loss of the season. Rush defense has given up 332 yards and four TDs in last two weeks.
Total (44.5): Under is 6-1 in Titans’ last seven road games.
Seattle at Dallas (-12.5)
Why Seahawks cover: Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Julius Jones will face the team that cut him after last season.
Why Cowboys cover: Tony Romo appears to be completely over his finger injury. Finally got Terrell Owens (213 yards, TD) involved in the offense last week. Seattle has NFL’s second worst pass defense. Romo is 2-0 on Thanksgiving.
Total (46.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Arizona at Philadelphia (-3)
Why Cardinals cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Donovan McNabb is struggling and has a tentative hold on the Eagles’ starting QB job. Brian Westbrook, who normally skips practice to let his injuries heal, will only have three days to rest his sore ankle and ribs. Kurt Warner is the NFC’s top-rated quarterback.
Why Eagles cover: Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings. Arizona’s run game is only averaging 48.3 yards per game over the last three weeks.
Total (46.5): Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
Texas at Texas A&M
By Christian Alexander
Texas A&M (4-7, 2-5 Big 12) at #4 Texas (10-1, 6-1 Big 12)
Thursday, November 27
8:10 PM ESPN
Memorial Stadium (Natural Grass)
Sports.com Line: Texas -35, O/U 68.5
It was nice not to have to sweat it out last Thursday night. Thanks to the Yellow Jackets building a 24-3 halftime lead and a 41-10 third-quarter score, the outcome of my Georgia Tech (-3.5) play over Miami was never in doubt. That win pushes my Thursday night record to 9-5 (64%) on the year and with one game left, it sure would be nice to make it a 10-win season.
Speaking of 10 win seasons, the Texas Longhorns have already accomplished that feat in 2008. This Thursday night, we’ll head down to Austin, TX to check out the Longhorns as they wrap up their regular season against archrival Texas A&M.
There is no question who has been the dominant program in Texas over the past decade. Texas has been favored by double digits over the Aggies in four of the last five contests, a rarity for intra-state clashes between two prominent football programs.
That said, it’s the underdog Aggies from Texas A&M who are currently riding a two-game winning streak in this contest. In 2006, the 11th ranked Longhorns were upset by Texas A&M, 12-7, ending a six-game skid in the series and in the process knocking Texas out of the Big 12 title game. Last year was a much different game, but ultimately with the same result as Texas A&M outslugged the 13th-ranked Longhorns in a 38-30 victory.
And so we have to go back to 2005 to find the last time that Texas has defeated the Aggies. Of course, 2005 was a special season for Texas as they rode the talents of QB Vince Young to an undefeated season and a national championship.
Texas Tech ended any hopes of the Longhorns being perfect this season, but there is still plenty for coach Mack Brown and his program to play for this Thursday night. The team with the highest BCS rank represents the South Division in the Big 12 Championship.
Oklahoma and Texas are practically in a dead heat coming into this weekend. That means “style points” could very well determine who gets the nod, and thus who has a chance to possibly make the BCS Championship.
Of course, we all know that an effort to accumulate “style points” often leads a team to run up the score on their opponent and one can easily see that happening this Thursday night. When you consider that Texas has scored 40+ points in all but four of its games and Texas A&M has allowed 40+ points in every loss this season except for one, it’s not hard to envision Texas scoring at least 50 this Thursday.
The Aggies rank 113th nationally in total defense, and so the once feared "Wrecking Crew" defense is certainly a thing of the past. Defensive coordinator Joe Kines has been under a ton of heat lately, and you can be sure he isn’t happy to hit the road to face a Texas offense that ranks eighth nationally in total offense (471 yards per game) and sixth in scoring (43.4 ppg.).
Look for Texas QB Colt McCoy – the poster boy for the program who is also a finalist for a slew of postseason awards - to shred the Aggies with the help of multiple running backs and talented WRs such as Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby. Cosby has caught a pass in 41 consecutive games, and ranks second all-time at Texas with 186 receptions.
McCoy is an impressive 30-7 as a starter for the Longhorns, and with another win this Thursday night can pass the hero of 2005 – QB Vince Young - as the all-time leader at Texas in victories by a starting QB.
If anyone is thinking the Aggies have a chance to shock the world, just remember that the Longhorns have only lost three straight to A&M once (1991) in the 114 years these two have squared off. Overall, the Longhorns are 73-36-5 all-time against their archrivals, including 45-11-1 at home.
Last five games in the Texas/Texas A&M series:
* 2007: Texas A&M 38 - Texas 30
* 2006: Texas A&M 12 - Texas 7
* 2005: Texas 40 - Texas A&M 29
* 2004: Texas 26 - Texas A&M 13
* 2003: Texas 46 - Texas A&M 15
Tennessee (10-1, 9-2 ATS) at Detroit (0-11, 4-7 ATS)
The Titans, coming off their first loss of the season, roll into Ford Field to face the only team without a win this season in the hapless Lions.
Tennessee got pounded by the Jets 34-13 as a 5½-point home chalk Sunday, just the team’s second non-cover all season. QB Kerry Collins (21 of 39, 243 yards, 1 TD) had a fair game with no turnovers, but the Titans got very little from the running game in finishing with just 281 total yards, while New York rolled up 409 (192 on the ground) and more than doubled Tennessee in time of possession (40:30-19:30).
Detroit jumped out to a 17-0 lead over Tampa Bay on Sunday, then gave up 38 unanswered points in falling 38-20 as an 8½-point home pup. Neither team had much offensive output, with the Lions getting outgained 255-207, but QB Daunte Culpepper (8 of 20, 121 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) threw both of his picks to Ronde Barber, with the first converted to a TD one play later and Barber running the second one back for a score.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with Tennessee going 2-0 SU but splitting the cash. In the most recent meeting, the Titans won 24-19 in the 2005 season finale, cashing as a 2½-point home favorite.
Along with their 9-2 ATS mark on the year, the Titans are on several more pointspread streaks, including 5-0 against losing teams, 5-0 after an ATS loss, 8-2 after a SU loss, 16-5 on the highway and 7-3-1 against the NFC. The Lions, who are 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 regular-season starts, are on further ATS slides of 0-6 at home, 0-4 on Thursday, 3-8 in November and 2-5 against winning teams. Detroit is also 0-4 SU and ATS the last four years on Thanksgiving.
The under for Tennessee is on runs of 6-1 on the road and 4-1 in November, but the over for Detroit is on streaks of 20-8-1 overall, 5-0 in November, 8-0-1 against winning teams and 6-1-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Seattle (2-9, 4-6-1 ATS) at Dallas (7-4, 5-6 ATS)
The surging Cowboys go after their third straight win when they meet the struggling Seahawks at Texas Stadium.
Dallas rolled past San Francisco 35-22 last week laying 9½ points at home to win and cash for the second week in a row after going 2-4 (1-5 ATS) the previous six weeks. QB Tony Romo (23 of 39, 341 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) lost a fumble but was otherwise infallible, and WR Terrell Owens (seven catches, 213 yards, 1 TD) had a monster day, including a 75-yard TD catch. The Cowboys finished with a 408-304 advantage in total yards and a more than nine-minute time-of-possession edge.
Seattle dropped its fourth straight decision on Sunday, falling 20-17 to Washington but pushing as a three-point home pup. QB Matt Hasselbeck (12 of 24, 103 yards) had two TD passes offset by a pair of INTs, and the Seahawks generated just 228 total yards, while allowing 386. Seattle also lagged nearly 17 minutes behind in time of possession (38:27-21:33).
Dallas is on a 3-0 ATS run in this rivalry, most recently losing 21-20 in the opening round of the 2006 playoffs but covering as a 2½-point road ‘dog. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes, all from the underdog role.
The Cowboys are on ATS upticks of 9-2 in November, 4-1 on Thursday and 5-2 on Thanksgiving, but they carry negative ATS trends of 5-11 overall, 2-5 at home, 1-4 against losing teams, 3-7 after a SU win and 3-7 as a double-digit favorite. The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five against winning teams, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 7-2-1 following an ATS loss, 8-3-1 following a SU setback and 7-2 as an underdog of more than seven points
The over for Dallas is on tears of 6-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-0 after a SU win, 7-2 in November and 6-2 on Thursday. On the flip side, the under for Seattle is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 5-0 in November and 4-0 against winning teams. Finally, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Arizona (7-4 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (5-5-1, 6-5 ATS)
The reeling Eagles bring their quarterback controversy into the Thanksgiving holiday when they host the Cardinals at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia got ripped by Baltimore 36-7 as a one-point road ‘dog Sunday, failing to cover for the third straight week. QB Donovan McNabb (8 of 18, 59 yards, 2 INTs, 1 lost fumble) had a miserable start and was yanked at halftime, despite the Eagles only trailing 10-7. Backup QB Kevin Kolb (10 of 23, 73 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) wasn’t any better as Philly lost the turnover battle 5-0, including allowing a 108-yard INT return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
Despite the QB switch in Baltimore, coach Andy Reid announced this week that McNabb will start under center against the Cards.
Arizona hits the road following Sunday’s 37-29 to the Giants as a three-point home favorite, ending a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS). QB Kurt Warner (32 of 52, 351 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 lost fumble) had another big day statistically, but he was playing from behind in the second half, and he committed the game’s only two turnovers.
These squads last met in 2005, with Arizona earning a 27-21 home victory giving three points. The favorite is on a 5-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the Eagles are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes, including 3-1-1 in the last four meetings in Philly.
Despite their issues the last three weeks, the Eagles remain on ATS streaks of 9-5 as a non-division chalk and 7-3 against NFC foes, though they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home against teams with a winning road mark. The Cardinals are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a non-cover and 12-4 after a SU loss, but they are on a 7-20 ATS slide on the road against teams with a losing home record, and they are 8-16-1 ATS in their last 25 games in the Eastern Time Zone (1-2 ATS this year).
The over for the Cardinals is on numerous tears, including 24-9 overall, 36-15 on the road, 18-6 on grass and 26-9 against losing teams and 36-15 on the road. Also, the over is 21-8-1 in Philadelphia’s last 30 games against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Texas A&M (4-7 SU and ATS) and (4) Texas (10-1, 8-3 ATS)
Texas, sitting second in the BCS standings but barely ahead of Big 12 foe Oklahoma, looks to bolster its national title résumé when it plays host to struggling archrival Texas A&M.
The Longhorns blasted Kansas 35-7 two weekends ago as a 14-point road chalk, halting a three-game ATS slide. QB Colt McCoy (24 of 34, 255 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a sterling passing game and also ran 16 times for another 78 yards and a touchdown, part of a 166-yard rushing effort for Texas. The Longhorns finished with a 421-305 edge in total yards and allowed only a third-quarter TD after taking a 28-0 lead.
The Aggies have dropped their last two games by a combined total of 107-49, most recently getting belted by Baylor 41-21 on Nov. 15 as an eight-point road pup. QB Jerrod Johnson (19 of 30, 244 yards, 1 TD) threw four INTs, and A&M finished with a 5-0 turnover deficit while allowing a whopping 510 total yards, including 269 on the ground. The Aggies made the game slightly respectable only by scoring two fourth-quarter TDs.
Texas sports one of the nation’s most prolific offenses, ranking sixth in scoring (43.5 ppg), eighth in total yards (471 ypg) and 11th in passing (297.6 ypg), and the Longhorns defense is yielding an average of just 19.5 points per game (26th). Texas A&M has a fair passing attack (250.9 ypg, 24th), but the Aggies are relatively average elsewhere on offense, and their defense ranks among the bottom in the nation in rushing yards allowed (219.5, 116th), total yards allowed (455.2, 114th) and points allowed (36.4, 113th).
Texas A&M is on a 3-0 ATS streak in this heated rivalry (all as an underdog), winning the last two years outright, with a 12-7 victory in 2006 in Austin catching 14 points and a 38-30 decision last year in College Station as a seven-point pup. However, the home team is on an 8-2 ATS run, and Texas is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Austin.
The Longhorns are on a bevy of positive ATS runs, including 11-4 overall, 5-2 at home, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 7-2 after a SU win, 20-8 against losing teams and 13-2 in home finales. The Aggies are on ATS surges of 4-1 coming off a bye and 11-4-1 after a SU loss, but they are on pointspread slides of 0-5 on Thursday, 1-4 after an ATS setback, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 as an underdog of 20 points or more.
The over for Texas is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 5-1 in November and 8-2 in Big 12 play, and Texas A&M sports over streaks of 6-1 overall, 22-8-1 on the highway and 8-1 in the Big 12.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
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