Outback Bowl: Iowa vs. South Carolina
- The Iowa Hawkeyes beat a lot of good teams this year, while the South Carolina Gamecocks seemed to lose to a lot of good teams. What does that mean January 1 when they meet at Raymond James Stadium in the Outback Bowl?
Oddsmakers currently have the Hawkeyes listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Gamecocks, while the game's total is sitting at 43.
Ricky Stanzi threw for 255 yards with threw touchdowns to lead Iowa to a 55-0 drubbing of Minnesota in Week 13.
Iowa easily covered the 7-point spread, and the 55 points made it OVER the posted total of 44.5. Shonn Greene ran for two touchdowns in that win.
Chris Smelley completed 22-of-47 pass attempts for 207 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions for South Carolina as they lost 31-14 to Clemson in Week 14.
The Gamecocks failed to cover the 1-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 40.5.
Team records:
Iowa: 8-4 SU, 7-4 ATS
South Carolina: 7-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS
Iowa most recently:
When playing in January are 2-2
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 6-4
South Carolina most recently:
When playing in January are 2-0
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Iowa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Iowa is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iowa's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of South Carolina's last 7 games
South Carolina is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Gator Bowl: Clemson vs. Nebraska
- The Clemson Tigers finished the season on a roll playing tough defense and the Nebraska Cornhuskers finished the year on a roll playing great offense.
Both will after a win January 1 when they meet at Municipal Stadium in the Gator Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as 2-point favorites versus the Cornhuskers, while the game's total is sitting at 56.
James Davis rushed for three touchdowns to pace Clemson to a 31-14 win over South Carolina in Week 14.
The Tigers covered the 1-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 40.5.
Joe Ganz tossed two touchdown strikes in Week 14 as Nebraska surged to a 40-31 win over Colorado.
The Cornhuskers failed to cover the 18-point spread at home in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the posted total (57.5).
Team records:
Clemson: 7-5 SU, 4-6 ATS
Nebraska: 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS
Clemson most recently:
When playing in January are 1-3
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 7-3
Nebraska most recently:
When playing in January are 3-2
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Nebraska is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nebraska's last 5 games
Nebraska is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
Capital One Bowl: Michigan State Spartans vs. Georgia Bulldogs
- The fans at Florida Citrus Bowl will be treated to a possible defensive battle when the Michigan State Spartans and the Georgia Bulldogs clash January 1 for the Capital One Bowl.
And Bulldog backers will be hoping for a victory to take the money-losing sting out of four consecutive ATS losses.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulldogs listed as 8-point favorites versus the Spartans, while the game's total is sitting at 55½.
Javon Ringer had one TD for Michigan State, giving him 21 on the season, but the team ended up losing 49-18 to Penn State in Week 13.
The Spartans did not cover the 16.5-point spread, while the combined score played OVER the posted total of 47.
Matthew Stafford finished with 407 yards passing, five touchdowns and one interception but it was not enough as Georgia was upset 45-42 by Georgia Tech in Week 14.
The Bulldogs failed to cover the 7.5-point spread, while the final score played well OVER the posted total of 50.5.
Team records:
Michigan State: 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS
Georgia: 9-3 SU, 3-6-2 ATS
Michigan State most recently:
When playing in January are 1-0
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 7-3
Georgia most recently:
When playing in January are 6-1
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the conference are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Michigan State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State's last 6 games
Georgia is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia's last 5 games
Georgia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Southern Cal
- A pair of 11-1 conference champions restore some luster to the Rose Bowl this year as the Big Ten champion Penn State Nittany Lions face the Pac 10 champion USC Trojans.
Penn State has struggled ATS of late, losing three of four, while USC has been dominant on defense, allowing more than 10 points just twice in 12 games this year.
Oddsmakers currently have the Trojans listed as 8½-point favorites versus the Nittany Lions, while the game's total is sitting at 45.
Daryll Clark threw for career-highs of 341 yards and four touchdowns and a stingy defense held Javon Ringer to a season-low 42 yards as Penn State clinched a BCS bid with a 49-18 victory Michigan State in Week 13.
The Lions covered the 16.5-point spread, while the combined score played OVER the posted total of 47.
Mark Sanchez threw for 268 yards as USC ran past UCLA 28-7 in Week 15. USC could not cover the 32.5-point spread, and the 35 points went UNDER the posted total of 47.
Sanchez completed 18-of-33 with two touchdowns for USC. Joe McKnight ran for 99 yards and a TD in the win.
Team records:
Penn State: 11-1 SU, 7-3-1 ATS
Southern Cal: 11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS
Penn State most recently:
When playing in January are 5-2
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When an underdog on the road are 0-10
Southern Cal most recently:
When playing in January are 6-1
When playing on grass are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When favored at home are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Penn State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Penn State's last 6 games
Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Southern Cal's last 23 games
Southern Cal is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
- The Virginia Tech Hokies, ranked 16th nationally on defense, face the 11-2 Cincinnati Bearcats at Dolphin Stadium in the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.
Cincy won 10 of 11 to end the year, while the Hokies rebounded from a tough mid-season stretch to win their final three games.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bearcats listed as 2½-point favorites versus the Hokies, while the game's total is sitting at 41½.
Virginia Tech rushed for three touchdowns and ran away from Boston College to win 30-12 in Week 15.
The Hokies covered the 1-point spread, while the combined score played OVER the posted total of 39.
Marshwan Gilyard had a late TD reception in Week 15 as Cincinnati pulled out a 29-24 win over Hawaii.
The Bearcats weren't able to cover the 7.5-point spread in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the day's posted total (48.5).
Team records:
Virginia Tech: 9-4 SU, 5-7 ATS
Cincinnati: 10-2 SU, 6-5 ATS
Virginia Tech most recently:
When playing in January are 2-5
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 8-2
When an underdog on the road are 5-5
Cincinnati most recently:
When playing in January are 1-0
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When favored at home are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
IOWA (8 - 4) vs. S CAROLINA (7 - 5)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CLEMSON (7 - 5) vs. NEBRASKA (8 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MICHIGAN ST (9 - 3) vs. GEORGIA (9 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
MICHIGAN ST is 23-45 ATS (-26.5 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
GEORGIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
GEORGIA is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
GEORGIA is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
PENN ST (11 - 1) vs. USC (11 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
USC is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
VIRGINIA TECH (9 - 4) vs. CINCINNATI (11 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Outback Bowl
Iowa vs. South Carolina
Iowa
10-1 Under vs. non-conference
29-15 Under after a win by 17+ points
South Carolina
4-13 ATS after allowing 50+ points
0-6 ATS after scoring 37+ points BB games
Gator Bowl
Clemson vs. Nebraska
Clemson
6-0 Under as favorite
10-2 Under in bowl games
Nebraska
3-11 ATS off home win
2-10 ATS off SU win
Capital One Bowl
Michigan State vs. Georgia
Michigan State
13-27 ATS off road conference loss
12-0 Over after having won 3 out of their last 4
Georgia
19-5 ATS Away vs. non-conference
16-6 ATS Away off bye week
Rose Bowl
Penn State vs. USC
Penn State
22-9 Under after scoring 42 points
31-15 Under as underdog
USC
6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
10-1 ATS in non-conference games
Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
12-2 ATS off SU win as dog
63-38 ATS off ATS win
Cincinnat
6-0 Over on grass
5-1 Over playing with 2+ weeks rest
IOWA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA
Iowa is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Iowa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
South Carolina is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of South Carolina's last 7 games
CLEMSON vs. NEBRASKA
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Nebraska is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
Nebraska is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
MICHIGAN STATE vs. GEORGIA
Michigan State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State's last 6 games
Georgia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Georgia is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
PENN STATE vs. SOUTHERN CAL
Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Penn State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Southern Cal is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
VIRGINIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI
Virginia Tech is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
OUTBACK BOWL
Iowa (8-4, 6-4 ATS) vs. South Carolina (7-5, 6-5 ATS) (at Tampa, Fla.)
Two teams returning to the postseason after a one-year hiatus hook up at Raymond James Stadium, as South Carolina matches up against Iowa for the first time ever.
The Hawkeyes closed the regular season with a flourish, winning three in a row and five of their last six while also going 6-3 ATS down the stretch. Iowa, which was the only team to beat Penn State (24-23 as a 7½-point home underdog), capped things off with an impressive 55-0 rout of Minnesota as a seven-point road chalk, as star RB Shonn Green ran for 144 yards and two TDs. Against the Gophers, Iowa finished with massive advantages in first downs (23-6), total yards (483-134), rushing yards (222-7) and time of possession (37:37-22:23), and they also won the turnover battle, 3-0.
South Carolina followed up a 6-1 run (4-2 ATS) by closing the regular season with a pair of blowout losses at Florida (56-6 as a 21-point underdog) and at Clemson (31-14 as a one-point underdog). Prior to those two contests, the Gamecocks’ defense had led the charge all season, allowing 24 points or less in the team’s first 10 games, including limiting six foes to 17 points or less.
Both squads are making their third appearance in the Outback Bowl. Iowa played Florida both times, winning 37-17 as a 3½-point underdog in 2003, but losing two to the Gators years later 31-24 in a pick-em contest. Meanwhile, South Carolina beat Ohio State in consecutive years in 2000 and 2001.
Under coach Kirk Ferentz, the Hawkeyes are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in bowl games (2-1 SU and ATS versus SEC foes), but they weren’t favored in any of those contests. In its last bowl appearance, Iowa lost to Texas 26-24 as a nine-point underdog in the Alamo Bowl. South Carolina is 1-1 SU and ATS in the postseason since coach Steve Spurrier arrived, including a 44-36 victory over Houston as a 4½-point favorite in the 2006 Liberty Bowl. Spurrier has a 7-7 SU and ATS bowl record in his coaching career.
Iowa averaged just 16.8 points in its first four games against Division I foes, but put up 34.7 ppg during its season-ending 5-1 run, and for the season the Hawkeyes churned out 374.2 total yards per game (189.7 rushing ypg). Green set a school record with 1,729 rushing yards, which ranked second in the nation, and he averaged 6.2 yards per carry and rushed for 17 TDs. QB Ricky Stanzi had a decent year, completing 58.3 percent of his passes for 1,809 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs, with his best performance coming in the season finale against Minnesota (255 passing yards, 3 TDs, no INTs).
South Carolina’s offense was spotty all season, producing 17 points or fewer five times in 12 games and averaging just 21.7 points and 316.8 total yards per contest (98.3 rushing ypg). QBs Chris Smelley and Stephen Garcia split time under center and neither was spectacular, combining to complete less than 56 percent of their passes for a total of 2,496 yards with 19 TDs and 20 INTs.
Because if its late-season implosions against Florida and Clemson, the Gamecocks’ defense ended up allowing 20.2 ppg, but they ranked 11th in the nation in total defense at 289.1 ypg (128.7 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Iowa ranked eighth in scoring defense (13.3 ppg), 12th in total defense (289.5 ypg) and 10th in rushing defense (98.3 ypg). The Hawkeyes posted two shutouts, allowed less than 10 points five times and did not give up more than 27 points all season.
In addition to its ongoing 6-3 ATS streak, Iowa is on pointspread runs of 5-2 against winning teams, 4-1 when playing on grass and 12-4 when favored by 3½ to 10 points. However, the Hawkeyes are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite of any price, 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a victory and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on Thursday, but 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine as an underdog (1-3-1 ATS as a pup this season) and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 versus teams with a winning record.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for South Carolina overall, 4-1 for South Carolina against winning teams, 4-1-1 for Iowa overall and 6-1 for Iowa when favored by 3½ to 10 points. However, the under is on streaks of 5-1 for the Gamecocks in non-conference play, 10-1 for Iowa in non-league action and 19-8 for Iowa on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA
GATOR BOWL
Clemson (7-5, 4-6 ATS) vs. Nebraska (8-4, 6-6 ATS) (at Jacksonville, Fla.)
Nebraska and Clemson each bring three-game winning streaks and new coaches into Municipal Stadium in the annual Big 12/ACC Gator Bowl clash.
The Huskers, playing under first-year coach Bo Pelini, ripped off three straight wins to start the season, then dropped three in a row before closing on a 5-1 spurt (3-3 ATS), including a three-game season-ending winning streak (2-1 ATS). Nebraska put up 30-plus points in all but two of its games this season, including averaging 47 ppg in its final three victories over Kansas (45-35), Kansas State (56-28) and Colorado (40-31).
Clemson entered this year as the odds-on favorite to win the ACC, but it opened with a 34-10 loss to Alabama as a four-point favorite and lost its first four games against Division I-A competition, leading to the forced resignation of coach Tommy Bowden. Assistant coach Dabo Swinney took over on an interim basis and led the Tigers to a 4-1 SU and ATS finish to earn the head job full time. During its three-game SU and ATS winning streak to close the season, Clemson outscored Duke, Virginia and South Carolina by a combined tally of 75-24.
This is the first meeting between these schools since the 1981 Orange Bowl, which Clemson won 22-15 as a four-point underdog to capture the national championship. While the Huskers are making their first trip to the Gator Bowl, this is the Tigers’ ninth appearance in this game (4-4 SU in the previous eight).
Clemson is 15-15 SU all-time in bowl games, losing to Auburn 23-20 as a 1½-point favorite in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta. Nebraska is also dead-even in the postseason at 22-22 SU, and its last bowl appearance also was a three-point loss to Auburn (17-14 as a 1½-point underdog in the Cotton Bowl following the 2006 season).
The Tigers had an up-and-down season offensively, scoring 27 points or more seven times – including in four of the last five games – but they were held to 17 or less five times. Clemson finished averaging 25.5 points and 339.3 total yards per game (120.5 rushing ypg). The running back tandem of James Davis (725 yards, 11 TDs) and CJ Spiller (612 yards, 7 TDs) did the bulk of the damage, as QB Cullen Harper (11 TDs, 12 INTs) had an erratic senior season.
Neraska averaged 36.2 points and 458.2 total yards per outing, including 173.8 rushing yards per game. Senior QB Joe Ganz (69.2 percent completion rate, 3,329 yards, 23 TDs, 10 INTs; 257 rushing yards, 5 TDs) had an outstanding season, though it was lost in the mix compared with other standout Big 12 QBs. Along with Ganz, tailbacks Roy Helu Jr. (804 yards, 7 TDs) and Marlon Lucky (517 yards, 7 TDs) carried the load on the ground.
The Tigers have a huge edge defensively, allowing just 16.6 points and 294.8 total yards per game, which ranked 10th and 16th in the nation, respectively. Only two of the 10 Division I-A opponents Clemson faced – Alabama (34 points) and Florida State (41) – scored more than 21 points. Meanwhile, Nebraska suffered from playing in the explosive Big 12, giving up per-game averages of 29.2 points and 361.5 total yards per game, but only 128 rushing ypg.
Nebraska went 3-1 ATS on the highway this year, but is mired in ATS funks of 3-8 as an underdog, 2-5 in non-conference play, 4-11 against winning teams and 2-11 after a SU win. Meanwhile, although Clemson cashed in four of its last five overall, it also carries a slew of negative ATS trends, including 1-4 in bowl games, 0-4 as a favorite in bowl games, 3-7 as a favorite overall, 2-6 in non-conference play, 2-7 against winning teams, 3-7 on grass and 3-7 on Thursdays.
The Tigers carry nothing but “under” streaks into this contest, including 10-3 overall (7-3 this year), 13-6 in non-league action, 4-0 in bowl games, 9-1 as a favorite, 6-1 on Thursdays and 8-2 on grass. The under is also 4-1 in the Huskers’ last five bowl games and 6-2 in its last eight on grass, though Nebraska did top the total in its last four regular-season games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
(19) Michigan State (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. (16) Georgia (9-3, 3-8 ATS) (at Orlando, Fla.)
Georgia, which entered the season with national championship aspirations, has to settle for its fifth New Year’s Day or beyond bowl game in the last six years when it takes on Michigan State, which is making its second straight postseason appearance at Citrus Bowl Stadium.
The Bulldogs were the preseason No. 1 team in the nation and started out 4-0 (2-1 ATS), but their season got derailed in a 41-30 home loss to Alabama in Week 5 as a 6½-point favorite. After rebounding to win its next three, Georgia closed the regular season by going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS, with the losses coming against Florida (49-10 as a 7½-point underdog) and Georgia Tech (45-42 as a 7½-point home favorite in the finale).
Michigan State enjoyed a breakthrough season under second-year coach Mark Dantonio. After a 38-31 loss at Cal to begin the year, the Spartans won nine of their final 11 games, the only losses coming against Ohio State at home (45-7) and at Penn State in the season finale (49-18). Seven of Michigan State’s nine wins were by double digits.
The only previous meeting between these schools came in the 1989 Gator Bowl, which Georgia won 34-27 in a pick-em situation. The Bulldogs are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against the Big Ten in bowl games since 1988, and under coach Mark Richt, they’re 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the postseason, including last year’s 41-10 rout of unbeaten Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, cashing as a nine-point favorite.
Dantonio led Michigan State to the Champ Sports Bowl at Citrus Bowl Stadium last year, losing 24-21 to Boston College but cashing as a five-point underdog. This is just the second bowl appearance for the Spartans since 2001.
Michigan State averaged 26.2 points and 351.7 total yards per game, including 137.6 rushing ypg. RB Javon Ringer led the NCAA with 370 carries, ranked fourth in rushing yards with 1,590 (4.3 per carry) and had 15 TDs. However, senior QB Brian Hoyer was erratic all season, completing less than 51 percent of his passes for 2,236 yards with eight TDs offset by eight INTs.
Georgia’s offense was paced by the air and ground attack of QB Matthew Stafford (61.1 percent completion rate, 3,209 yards, 22 TDs, eight INTs) and RB Knowshon Moreno (1,338 rushing yards, 5.9 ypc, 16 TDs). The Bulldogs scored 42 or more in three of their last five contests.
The Spartans allowed 22 points and 358.3 yards per game on defense, including a whopping 147.7 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry). Georgia surrendered 25.6 points and 318.3 total ypg, including 130 rushing ypg (3.8 per carry). However, while the Bulldogs gave up 17 points or fewer seven times, they allowed an average of 42.2 ppg in their other five contests, going 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in those games. In fact, in its final five outings, Georgia yielded 28 points or more four times.
Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in its last six after a non-cover, but it is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games following an outright defeat, 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season and 0-3 ATS as an underdog in 2007. Georgia is on ATS streaks of 7-3 in bowl games, 5-2 in January, 4-1 at neutral sites, 4-1 against non-conference foes and 4-0 on Thursdays. However, the Bulldogs are in pointspread funks of 1-7 overall, 0-6 as a favorite, 1-6 after a SU loss and 1-5 against winning teams.
The over is on runs of 4-1 overall (all on grass), 4-1 for Georgia in bowl games, 7-2 for Georgia at neutral sites and 4-0 for Georgia against winning teams. The over is also 4-2 in Michigan State’s last six overall, 37-16-2 in its last 55 as an underdog and 5-1 in its last six after an outright loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
ROSE BOWL
(6) Penn State (11-1, 8-3 ATS) vs. (5) USC (11-1, 6-6 ATS) (at Pasadena, Calif.)
USC, which entered this season with its sights set on the BCS Championship Game, instead makes its fourth consecutive appearance in the Rose Bowl as it battles Penn State, which is making just second-ever trip to Pasadena.
The Trojans appeared on their way to a shot at the national title after opening the season with convincing wins over Virginia (52-7 as a 21-point road favorite) and then-fifth-ranked Ohio State (35-3 as a 10½-point home chalk). However, 10 days after the rout of the Buckeyes, USC’s dream season came unraveled in a stunning 27-21 loss at Oregon State as a 24½-point road favorite, as the Trojans fell behind 21-0 at halftime and couldn’t recover.
After the loss at Oregon State, Pete Carroll’s team bounced back to win its final nine in a row (5-4 ATS), with its top-ranked defense carrying the team, allowing a total of 56 points during the nine-game winning streak (6.2 ppg). Aside from Oregon State, the only other team to come within 14 points of USC was Arizona, which lost 17-10 at home as a 15-point underdog. The Trojans ended the regular season with dominating wins over rivals Notre Dame (38-3 at home) and UCLA (28-7 at the Rose Bowl), but they finished just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 (1-3 ATS last four).
Penn State opened with nine straight victories, the ninth being a hard-fought 13-6 victory at then-No. 10 Ohio State. However, like USC, the Nittany Lions failed to capitalize on the win over the Buckeyes, as they went to Iowa the following week and squandered a nine-point fourth-quarter lead, losing 24-23 as a 7½-point chalk when the Hawkeyes made a last-second field goal.
Despite the stunning loss at Iowa, Penn State was able to secure its second Big Ten Championship as it closed with blowout home wins and spread-covers over Indiana and No. 17 Michigan State by the combined tally of 83-25. With the exception of the victory over Ohio State, Penn State’s other 10 wins were by point margins of 56, 31, 42, 42, 14, 14, 41, 29, 27 and 31.
Since Paterno took over at Penn State, the Nittany Lions and Trojans have hooked up seven times, with Penn State holding a 4-3 SU and ATS edge. The most recent meeting came in the 2000 Kickoff Classic, which USC won 29-5 as a two-point underdog.
USC, which is the only team to have qualified for a BCS game seven straight years, owns a record 23 Rose Bowl wins in 33 previous appearances. That includes last year’s 49-17 rout of Illinois as a 13-point favorite and a 32-18 thumping of Michigan as a 1½-point underdog the previous season. Since Carroll took over as coach, the Trojans are 5-2 SU and ATS in bowl games, including 2-1 SU and ATS in Pasadena, the loss coming to Texas in the 2006 national championship game.
Paterno owns the best bowl record in NCAA history at 23-10-1 (21-9-1 ATS), including last year’s 24-17 Alamo Bowl win over Texas A&M as a five-point favorite. In their only previous trip to the Rose Bowl, the Nittany Lions capped an undefeated 1994 season by routing Oregon 38-20 as a 17-point favorite.
The Trojans ranked in the top 20 in the nation in scoring offense (37.5 ppg, 14th), total offense (452.8 ypg, 13th) and rushing offense (206.6 ypg, 17th). Junior QB Mark Sanchez completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 2,794 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs. His top receiving targets – Damian Williams and Patrick Turner – combined for 93 receptions for 1,374 yards and 18 TDs, while a trio of tailbacks (Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable) all rushed for between 604 and 646 yards, accounting for 19 rushing touchdowns.
While USC’s offense was sporadic at times, its defense came to play every week and led the nation in points allowed (7.8 per game), total yards allowed (206) and passing yards allowed (122.8), and it ranked fifth nationally in rushing defense (83.2 ypg). Only two teams (Oregon State and Stanford) scored more than 10 points against the Trojans, with eight opponents being held to a touchdown or less.
Penn State scored 45 points or more seven times and finished averaging 40.2 points, 452.2 total yards and 211.7 rushing yards per game, figures that ranked 11th, 14th and 13th nationally. Dual-threat QB Daryll Clark connected on 60 percent of his passes for 2,319 yards with 17 TDs and just four INTs, while adding 265 rushing yards and nine scores on the ground. Along with Clark, RB Evan Royster (1,202 yards, 6.5 ypc, 12 TDs) paced the ground attack, while Deon Butler (43 catches, 713 yards, 7 TDs) was the leading receiver.
Though not quite as prolific as USC’s defense, Penn State’s stop unit was very stout, ranking third in scoring defense (12.4 ppg), fifth in total defense (264 ypg), ninth in rushing defense (96 ypg) and 11th in passing defense (168 ypg). Only two opponents – Illinois (24) and Iowa (24) – scored more than 17 points against the Nittany Lions, who allowed 10 points or less six times.
USC, which was a double-digit favorite in every game this season, is just 11-17-1 ATS in its last 29 laying big chalk. Also, the Trojans went 1-4 ATS this year as a road favorite and they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on grass. However, they’re on positive ATS streaks of 8-0 against the Big Ten, 22-6 in non-conference action, 6-1 in January, 5-1 in bowl games, 4-1 as a bowl chalk and 13-5 against teams with a winning record.
Penn State has been a double-digit pup just once since 2004, losing 28-6 at Ohio State as a 17-point underdog in 2006, and the Lions have failed to cash in five of their last six as a ‘dog of any price. Otherwise, though, Penn State is on ATS runs of 8-3-1 overall, 5-0 in non-Big Ten play and 5-1 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points.
The Nittany Lions are on under stretches of 5-1 in boll games and 4-1 as an underdog, but the over is 4-1 in their last five games on grass. Meanwhile, USC is on under steaks of 22-8-1 overall, 21-7-1 as a favorite, 5-2 against the Big Ten, 22-5-1 on grass and 5-0 versus winning teams, but the over is 4-0 in the Trojans’ last four bowl games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
ORANGE BOWL
(21) Virginia Tech (9-4, 5-7 ATS) vs. (12) Cincinnati (10-2, 6-6 ATS) (at Miami, Fla.)
Cincinnati, which set a school record for victories and captured its first Big East conference title, appears its first BCS Bowl when it takes on ACC champion Virginia Tech in the 75th anniversary of the Orange Bowl at Dolphin Stadium.
The Bearcats ended the regular-season on a five-game winning streak (4-2 ATS), with four of those wins coming against Big East foes South Florida, West Virginia, Louisville and Syracuse. After wrapping up the conference crown, Cincinnati trekked to Hawaii for a non-conference game and staged a big fourth-quarter rally to pull out a 29-24 victory as a 7½-point road favorite. The Bearcats scored between 24 and 30 points during the six-game run.
The Hokies started off with a surprising 27-22 loss to East Carolina as a nine-point road favorite, but rebounded to win their next five in a row (2-2 ATS in lined actin). After a 1-3 mini-slump in the middle of the year, Va-Tech closed on a three-game winning streak, including a 30-12 rout of Boston College as a one-point favorite in the ACC Championship game Dec. 6. In capturing its second straight league title, Frank Beamer’s offense mustered just 234 yards against B.C. and committed three turnovers, but the defense allowed only 308 total yards (45 rushing) and forced four turnovers.
These teams last met in 2006, with the Hokies rolling to a 29-13 home victory, but failing to cash as a hefty 27½-point favorite. The all-time series is tied 4-4, with the Bearcats going 5-2 ATS in lined games.
Cincinnati, which is in its second season under coach Brian Kelly, won its bowl games the last two years, beating Southern Miss 31-21 in last year’s PapaJohn’s Bowl and knocking off Western Michigan in the 2006 International Bowl, but the Bearcats failed to cover as a favorite in both contests. Cincy is 5-4 all-time in bowls (2-5 ATS).
The Hokies are riding a 16-year bowl streak, and this is their fifth BCS appearance, including their second consecutive trip to the Orange Bowl. However, Virginia Tech is just 6-9 SU and ATS in bowl games under Beamer, including 0-4 SU and ATS in BCS games and 0-2 SU and ATS in the Orange Bowl. Last year, the Hokies took on Kansas at Dolphin Stadium and fell 24-21 as a three-point favorite. That result made the underdog 5-1 ATS in Va-Tech’s last six bowl contests
Virginia Tech had one of the weakest offenses in the country, averaging only 22.2 points and 296.5 total yards per game, including 128.2 passing ypg, and the Hokies scored 20 or less six times. Senior Sean Glennon (a drop-back passer) and sophomore Tyrod Taylor (a mobile QB) split time under center, combining to pass for 1,539 yards with just five TD passes and 11 INTs. Taylor was the team’s second leading rusher (691 yards, six TDs), while Darren Evans (1,112 yards, 10 TDs) carried most of the load on the ground.
The Hokies compensated for a sluggish offense with a rock-solid stop unit that ranked 13th in scoring defense (17.5 ppg), seventh in total defense (277.2 ypg), 17th in rushing defense (107 ypg) and 13th in passing defense (170.2 ypg). Virginia Tech held eight opponents – including each of the last five – to 17 points or less.
Cincinnati, which put up 27.3 points and 375.4 yards per game (121.3 rushing ypg), prevailed in the Big East despite dealing with numerous quarterback injuries. Tony Pike got the majority of snaps and completed 63 percent of his tosses for 2,169 yards with 18 TDs and 7 INTs. Jacob Ramsey (630 yards, 2 TDs) and John Goebel (581 yards, 7 TDs) paced the ground attack, helping to open things up for top WR targets Marshwan Gilyard (74 catches, 1,118 yards, 10 TDs) and Dominick Goodman (78 catches, 977 yards, 7 TDs).
Defensively, Cincinnati ranked in the top 30 nationally in scoring defense (20.2 ppg, 28th), total defense (316 ypg, 26th) and rushing defense (103.8 ypg, 12th). The only two foes to score more than 23 points against the Bearcats were Oklahoma (52) and Connecticut (40).
Virginia Tech is on ATS runs of 23-9 away from home, 10-3 as a road underdog since 2005, 14-4 on Thursdays, 23-11 following a spread-cover and 5-2 against winning teams. However, the Hokies have failed to cash in eight of their last nine non-ACC contests.
The Bearcats are 9-3-1 ATS against ranked teams over the last three seasons, including 3-1 SU and ATS this year. They’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six games on Thursday, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 on grass and 4-1 in their last five versus winning teams. However, Cincinnati has failed to cash in four straight games as a favorite.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for Virginia Tech overall, 4-1 for Virginia Tech in January, 4-1 for Virginia Tech on grass, 7-3 for Virginia Tech after a SU win, 5-1 for Cincy in bowl games and 7-0 for Cincy when playing on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Outback Bowl - Iowa vs. South Carolina
by Ben Burns
The Outback Bowl will be the first game played in 2009, as the game kicks-off at 11:00am EST on New Year's Day. This will be the 23rd Outback Bowl, with Tennessee knocking off Wisconsin by a 21-17 count last year. This year's game pits Kirk Ferentz's Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks. A closer look at the two teams appears below:
In his fourth season as head coach Steve Spurrier has finally guided the Gamecocks to a New Year's Day bowl game. The Gamecocks missed out on the bowls entirely last season and have a 4-9 alltime record in bowls. Spurrier's Gamecocks bring a 7-5 record to the table, going 5-5-1 ATS in lined games. They finished in the top three of the SEC in six statistical categories, including first in Passing Defense and Kickoff Coverage. The Gamecocks also rank third in the entire country in Pass Defense and 11th in the nation in terms of Total Defense. The offense didn't set any records though, averaging just 21.4 points per game.
The Hawkeyes come in with an 8-4 record (7-4 SU/ATS in lined games) and having won five of their last six games including an upset of No. 3 Penn State. Note that their four losses were by a combined 12 points. The Hawkeyes finished in the top three of the Big Ten in eight statistical categories including 1st in Red Zone Defense and they also rank in the Top 10 in the nation in Interceptions, Scoring Defense, Rushing Defense and Pass Efficiency Defense. The Hawkeyes averaged a respectable 30.2 points per game, including 31.4 on the road. That's a full 10 points more than South Carolina. However, in fairness to the Gamecocks, for the most part, they were dealing with much tougher defenses.
This marks the 23rd bowl appearance for the Hawkeyes. They are 11-10-1 in bowls including 1-1 in the Outback Bowl. The Hawkeyes most recent appearance was in the 2006 Alamo Bowl where they lost 26-24 to Texas. They are 3-3 against SEC opponents in bowls.
The Hawkeyes opened as three point favorites but are currently laying four at most shops. With two stingy defenses, it's no surprise that the over/under line is just 43. Regardless of the outcome, it should be an interesting matchup and a great way to kick-off the new year. All the best to everyone this holiday season and Best Wishes in 2009...Ben Burns
Gator Bowl - Clemson vs. Nebraska
by Marc Lawrence
Both freshman coaches were successful in getting their teams to Jacksonville this New Year’s Day. Husker coach Bo Pellini took over a program that was a red-faced embarrassment last year and instilled a modicum of pride and a heavy dose of defense (Nebraska’s stop-unit improved 115 YPG this season from last) to bring them back to life. As a result the Cornhuskers are on a neat 6-1 ITS (In The Stats) roll heading into this contest. We’re talking about a team that has outgained 6 of its last 7 opponents – all in Big 12 play where offense is a premium. Nebraska is 8-0 ATS log in bowl games when playing off a win of more than 7 points. On the Clemson side of the game, former interim and newly-named head coach Dabo Swinney leads his troops knowing that bowlers riding a 3-0 SU and ATS win streak are just 11-31 ATS when off an ATS win of 8 or more points. That win was against bitter rival South Carolina. We point that out because the Tigers are just 3-8 SU and ATS in bowl games off a win over the Gamecocks. The site favors Clemson. The current form favors Nebraska.
Capital One Bowl - Michigan State vs. Georgia
by Big Al McMordie
The Georgia Bulldogs opened the season as the nation's #1 team, and had one of the more disappointing years in recent memory of any college football team. For all intents and purposes, Georgia was 0-3 this year as it lost every big game it played (Florida, Alabama, and Georgia Tech), and finished its regular season on a four-game ATS losing streak. And it's certainly not lost on Bulldog backers that rival Florida handed Georgia its worst loss (49-10) in Richt's coaching tenure, and will be playing for its second title under Urban Meyer.
The 16th-ranked Bulldogs will take on the 19th-ranked Michigan State Spartans, and Georgia has been installed as a 7.5-point favorite, with an over/under of 54 points. Thus, this game becomes a "redemption" game for Marc Richt's squad, as it's trying to achieve something positive in a lost season.
In contrast, Michigan State went 9-3, and had its best season in years, so this Capital One Bowl Game takes on a completely different meaning for Mark Dantonio's squad. Rather than looking for redemption, the Spartans view this game as a celebration. The Bulldogs do have a lot of talented players, including RB Knowshon Moreno, who rushed for 1338 yards this season (but failed to crack 100 yards in Georgia's three losses). The Spartans, though, have a great running back of their own in Javon Ringer. Ringer was 2nd in the country with 21 touchdowns, and averaged 132 yards per game (ranking 3rd in that category). Both Ringer and Moreno will be first round NFL draft choices of.
In addition to Moreno, Georgia has a super signal-caller in Matthew Stafford. He threw for 22 TDs, and had just 9 interceptions. These two teams last met in 1989's Gator Bowl, and Georgia won that game 34-27. This game might turn on the performance of Spartan QB Brian Hoyer, as Georgia will focus its defensive attention on Ringer, so Hoyer will need to step up, if Dantonio's men are to pull the upset.
Both teams have ended the season with a string of high-scoring games: Georgia has played four of five 'over' the total, while MSU is on a 4-1-1 run going 'over' the total.
Rose Bowl - Penn State vs. USC
by Larry Ness
The Rose Bowl, played in Pasadena, California typically provides ideal weather and playing conditions for the two participants (beautiful weather is expected on January 1 this year, too). That may be the reason that only ONCE in the last decade, has a Rose Bowl game finished with a final score of less than 42 combined points. That came nine years ago, when Wisconsin beat Stanford, 17-9.
By the way, that also marked the last win by a Big 10 team! The other nine final scores of the last 10 years ranged from a low of 42 points (USC 28-14 over Michigan) to a high of 79 (Texas 41-38 over USC), with the average final score (excluding that Wisconsin-Stanford game) being 58.7 PPG. With that in mind, it shouldn't come as all that big of a surprise that the opening total in this game was 48 and by Wednesday morning, had dropped to 45 (and still falling?).
The Nittany Lions come in averaging 40.2 PPG and the Trojans 37.5 but it's the defenses which are garnering most of the pre-game 'ink.' USC has allowed just 93 points all season, allowing an NCAA-best 7.8 PPG. Penn State is hardly a slouch on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 12.4 PPG in its 12 games. The Trojans also rank No. 1 in the nation by allowing just 206.1 YPG, while the Nittany Lions allow 263.9, which ranks fifth.
Both teams come in 11-1, although while USC was just 6-5-1 ATS, Penn State went 8-3. USC's only loss came in a 27-21 setback at Oregon State on Sept 25, a loss which cost USC a chance to play in the BCS title game. In that Thursday night game, the Trojans trailed 21-0 at halftime and couldn't make it "all the way back." However, USC gave up only 56 points in its last nine games (three shutouts plus held five other teams to 10 points or less).
The Nittany Lions can relate to the concept of one game costing them a title shot, as well. Penn State's lone loss in 2008 came 24-23 at Iowa on Nov 8, when the Hawkeyes' Daniel Murray made a 31-yard EG with one second left in the game.
While both teams’ defenses deserve all the accolades, there is plenty of offensive firepower on hand. PSU averaged 211.6 YPG on the ground (5.3 YPC with 35 TDs), led by Evan Royster's 1,202 yards (6.5 YPC / 12 TDs). QB Darryl Clark has been a major improvement over Penn State's QB of the last couple of years (Anthony Morelli), completing 60.0 percent with 17 TDs and only four INTs. It sure hasn't hurt him that he's blessed with three four-year WRs in Butler (434 catches / 16.6 YPC / 7 TDs), Williams (40 catches / 11.3 YPC / 3 TDs) and Norwood (38 catches / 15.9 YPC / 3 TDs).
As for USC, old "Tailback U" went to a "RB by committee," this year, in averaging 206.0 YPG on the ground (5.3 YPC / 26 TDs). McKnight (646 YR), Johnson (642 YR / 9 TDs) and Gable (604 YR / 8 TDs) combined to average 6.1 YPC as a trio. Sanchez started every game at QB and completed 64.4 percent with 30 TDs and 10 INTs.
Everything about this game is interesting, with just one thing missing, a national title for the winner. Still, it's a matchup of the legendary Joe-Pa (the Nittany Lions are 23-10-1 SU under the 82-year-old coach in bowl games), against Pete Carroll, who has achieved Hall-of-Fame coaching status since taking over at USC in 2001. The 2008 season marks the seventh straight season USC has won at least 11 games (a new NCAA record) and the Rose Bowl will be the school's SEVENTH straight BCS bowl (Carroll's 5-1 in the first six, losing only that classic Rose Bowl to Texas, 41-38). What a game. Visit the guaranteed picks page, as I may just have a pick on this one!
Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
by Scott Spreitzer
Two of the best coaching staffs in college football will look to exploit the other team's weaknesses in this year's Orange Bowl. Cincinnati HC Brian Kelly has been a hot prospect in the college football world for the last 24 months but says he's staying put. He's worked a small miracle with the Bearcats' program. Meanwhile, when you consider the lack of offensive talent in Blacksburg, most notably the quarterback position, and with just four returning starters on defense, one could argue that Virginia Tech HC Frank Beamer has done his best coaching job in his 22 years with the Hokies. So, while many of the bowls feature one side that's much better prepared and more focused than the other, you absolutely know that these two football teams will be as ready to go as possible, meaning the game will definitely be decided by player execution.
This season began on an ominous note for the Bearcats. QB Ben Mauck was denied a sixth year of eligibility and QB Dustin Grutza suffered a broken leg in the second game of the season, a 52-26 loss to Oklahoma. Third-stringer Tony Pike was forced into starting action the following game against Miami-Ohio. Pike went 20-for-24, for 241 yards, three TDs and no INTs. The Bearcats won 45-20. The junior actually missed two games during the season due to an injury, forcing Cinci to go with their fourth string QB, yet they finished the season on a six-game win streak, winning the Big East, and ending the regular season with a school record 11 wins. In all, Cincinnati played five different QBs throughout the season with Pike leading the way.
Pike is blessed with a talented receiving corps, and the matchup of Cinci's wideouts with Va Tech's secondary will go a long way in deciding the outcome of the Orange Bowl. Wideouts Marshawn Gilyard and Dominick Goodman combined for 152 receptions this season for 2,095 yards and 17 touchdowns. Goodman injured his shoulder on the first play of the Hawaii game, but he's listed as probable for New Year's Day. Cinci also makes a defense work hard against the run. Coach Kelly employs a duo-RB situation. Jacob Ramsey and John Goebel combined for 1,211 yards on 272 carries, for an efficient 4.45 yards per carry.
The Bearcats will test a Va Tech defense that's a bit banged-up in the front seven. Starting DE Jason Worilds is listed as questionable after suffering a shoulder injury. He led the team in sacks (8), and was fourth on the team with 62 tackles. More likely to miss the game is LB Brett Warren. The senior suffered an ACL injury and is listed as doubtful. Warren is second on the team with 82 tackles.
The Virginia Tech offense is also a bit hamstrung in this one. Starting LG Nick Marshman has been ruled academically ineligible. It's an offensive line that had their troubles at times. The Hokies rushed for only 3.7 yards per carry this season, and the line allowed 39 sacks. Beamer has had to interchange QBs Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon throughout the season. In fact, the offense was struggling so much in the early portion of the season that Taylor's redshirt had to be pulled. VT's ability to run will be another key factor in determining the winner. One highly publicized stat recently, showed that the Hokies are just 9-20 the last 29 times they were out-rushed, yet 89-8 SU when they ran for more yards than their opponents.
Finally, the Hokies are coming in with a chip on their shoulder. They have dropped three straight BCS games, but have practiced with big-time intensity according to reports, in an all-out effort to end the skid. Meanwhile, Brian Kelly coached teams (Cinci & CMU) had been a covering machine. However, they did lose their most recent game ATS, in their 29-24 come-from-behind win at Hawaii, and Cinci finished 6-6 ATS this season after a 9-3 spread mark in Kelly's first year at the helm.
If you like great coaching and gridiron "chess matches", this one is for you. We should have a solid idea of who will win this game early-on. If Cinci's talented receivers are getting behind the Hokie defenders, it could be VT's fourth straight BCS Bowl loss. However, if the Hokies are running well in the first half, Beamer's troops could be on their way to another run-oriented win. VT fell behind 17-0 to Kansas in last year's Orange Bowl. They made a mad dash, but fell three points short in a 24-21 loss as a 3 1/2 point favorite. This year, Va Tech is the pup. Will that fact along with last season's Orange Bowl loss add fuel to the fire? Or, will Cincinnati douse the flames? Stay tuned. The coaching matchup itself makes this one well worth watching.
What bettors need to know: Outback Bowl
By Doc's Sports
South Carolina vs. Iowa (-3.5, 44)
Line movement
This line opened at 3 at most books and has risen a half-point. The over/under opened at 43 at a majority of sites.
Bowl history
The Hawkeyes have dropped their past two postseason games, falling in the 2006 Alamo Bowl to Texas and 2006 Outback Bowl (2005 season) to Florida. Iowa is 11-10-1 all-time in bowls and 1-1 in the Outback.
The Gamecocks are 4-9 in bowls, but 2-0 in the Outback, winning on New Year’s Day in 2001 and 2002. Neither of these teams made a bowl last season.
How they got here
Iowa’s postseason hopes weren’t looking great when the Hawkeyes were 3-3 and rumors of coach Kirk Ferentz’s demise were growing. But Iowa won five of its past six games, including a home upset over Penn State that knocked the Nittany Lions from the BCS title game talk and vaulted the Hawkeyes into a New Year’s Day bowl.
South Carolina enters on a downward spiral after getting outscored 87-20 by Florida and Clemson in its past two games. Coach Steve Spurrier has been playing musical quarterbacks all season with little success.
Key trends
The Hawkeyes are 12-4 ATS (against the spread) in their past 16 against teams with a winning record. The under is 10-1 in Iowa’s past 11 non-conference games. South Carolina is 2-6-1 ATS in its past nine as an underdog.
The under is 5-1 in the Gamecocks’ past six non-conference games.
So who starts at QB for Gamecocks?
That would be freshman Stephen Garcia, who is a native of Tampa and played his high school ball a mile or so from Raymond James Stadium.
Chris Smelley started the season finale against Clemson and played the entire way after rotating with Garcia against Arkansas and Florida. Smelley threw four picks against the Tigers, leading Spurrier to demote him to backup and now Garcia will play the entire way in the bowl game barring injury.
“It’s definitely going to help me a lot not to have to look over my shoulder and not worry about being taken out if I make a mistake. I think it’s definitely going to be helpful,” Garcia told reporters.
The freshman has completed 53.8 percent of his passes for 753 yards and six touchdowns with five interceptions. He has run for 173 yards and two scores.
Iowa’s defense ranks No. 12 in the country and allowed nine points or fewer five times this season.
Iowa’s one-man show
Junior running back Shonn Greene, the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, has topped 100 yards rushing in 12 consecutive games (the only Division I-A player to surpass 100 yards in every game), finishing the regular season with 1,729 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Spurrier called the Doak Walker Award winner “the best running back in the country.” Greene, who finished sixth in the Heisman voting, will be tested by a Gamecocks defense that ranks 11th in the country but did struggle down the stretch. It ranks No. 3 against the pass, so Iowa might just abandon that part of its offense most of the day.
Game outlook
Iowa is about two touchdowns from being unbeaten. Its four losses came by a total of 12 points.
South Carolina can’t run the ball and Garcia has been inconsistent. In addition, the Gamecocks have lost two coaches (including QBs coach David Reaves) since the season ended.
The Hawkeyes are playing their best ball and put up 55 points in the regular season finale against a solid Minnesota team. They ruin Garcia’s homecoming in a low-scoring game.
What bettors need to know: Gator Bowl
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ
Gator Bowl: Clemson vs. Nebraska (+3)
On a Roll
Both teams come in hot with Clemson winning four of its last five and Nebraska five of six.
In both cases, the late season surge can be attributed to some combination of improving health, jelling offenses and light scheduling.
Clemson has benefited from improved health along the offensive line and with QB Cullen Harper, who was playing with an injured shoulder earlier in the year. The mid-season coaching shakeup seems to have played a positive role as well.
Nebraska’s run has been fueled by the stellar play of QB Joe Ganz and the emergence of RB Roy Helu. After leading the team in rushing in two of three games down the stretch, Helu made his first start in the season finale against Colorado and ran for 166 yards on 25 carries.
Something’s Gotta Give
Late season improvements notwithstanding, Clemson remains a defense-oriented team while Nebraska’s identity is built around offense.
The Huskers scored 30+ points in 10 of 12 games this season, 41+ in their last three. They’ll matchup against a Clemson defense that allows 16.6 points per game.
Sack Differential
For all of their success on defense, one trouble spot for the Tigers has been pressuring the QB. Clemson was last in the ACC in sacks with 14 and - with their offensive line struggling early on - the team compiled a minus 15 sack differential.
Nebraska’s defense, on the other hand, excels in this area. Led by NT Ndamukong Suh, the Huskers have sacked opposing QBs 30 times including 14 in the last three games.
Big Leg
If it comes down to the kicking game, Nebraska is in good shape with Alex Henery. Henery is 22 for 25 on field goal attempts in his career, including a 57-yard winner against Colorado.
Who Wants to Be Here?
Both teams should be highly motivated and enthusiastic about the game. While Clemson had higher expectations coming into the season, it seems rejuvenated under new coach Dabo Swinney. The Tigers have to be happy playing on New Year’s Day after starting off 3-4.
Nebraska has to view this game as a stepping stone on the road back to national prominence for a once-great program. The Huskers will be eager to take that next step.
ATS
Clemson is 4-6 ATS on the season, but its covered three in a row and four of five after failing to cover its first five lined games of the season.
Line Moves
Clemson opened as a steady 3-point favorite, though there has been a recent drop to 2.5 at some outlets.
The total opened at 55 and subsequently moved up to 56
What bettors need to know: Capital One Bowl
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ
Capital One Bowl: Michigan State vs. Georgia (-7.5, 54)
The Running Backs
This game features two of the best running backs in the nation in Michigan State’s Javon Ringer and Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno. Ringer, a first team AP All-American, was a true workhorse with 370 carries for 1590 net yards and 21 TDs. Moreno, an All-American second teamer, ran for 1338 yards and 17 TDs. While Ringer had the bigger totals, it’s worth mentioning that Moreno achieved his numbers with nearly 150 less carries, averaging 5.9 yards per carry to Ringer’s 4.3.
The Supporting Casts
Georgia comes into this game with the more balanced offense. QB Matthew Stafford is a future top 10 NFL pick and he enjoyed a reasonably successful season 267.4 passing yards per game and 22 TDs compared to nine picks. Stafford has excellent wideouts in freshman A.J. Green and senior Muhamed Massaquoi. While some have viewed the offensive line as a weak link for the Bulldogs, the unit has been improving.
Michigan State is more reliant on Ringer and the ground game. QB Brian Hoyer has been hugely inconsistent (nine TDs and eight picks). He comes in with the second lowest completion percentage among BCS starting QBs (50.8 percent). Hoyer must play his best game for the Spartans to have a chance in this one.
Something to Prove
The Spartans fell flat whenever going up against teams with top-tier talent. MSU was 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS against Cal, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State. MSU was hammered by both Ohio State and Penn State - the only two teams on its schedule with talent of Georgia’s caliber.
Ringer averaged only 67 yards per game against the five bowl teams listed above. He had a total of 109 yards on 33 carries in the two games against Ohio State and Penn State.
The Motivation Factor
There is no doubt that the Spartans will be pumped up to prove the naysayers and the general Big Ten critics wrong by playing well against a talented SEC team. Ringer has expressed disappointment with his performance against Penn State and will be looking to go big in his final game of the season.
The real question is whether Georgia, the team that came into the season ranked No. 1, will be able to match MSU’s intensity. Considering the Bulldogs appear to have superior talent at almost every position, the question of motivation may be the key to handicapping this game.
Georgia coach Mark Richt insists that his team will be ready to play and motivated to get its 10 win of the season.
"When you win 10, it's significant," Richt said. "People look at it and say double-digit victories. They've done something. That one extra win can make a big difference. You want your seniors to leave on a high note, and you want to set the tone for next season."
ATS
Michigan State is 6-6 ATS, 2-6 ATS vs. bowl teams.
Georgia comes in 3-7-1 ATS.
Line Moves
Georgia opened as a 7-point fave and the line has moved up to 7.5.
The over/under has remained solid at its opening number of 54.
What bettors need to know: Rose Bowl
By VICTOR RYAN
USC vs. Penn State (-9, 45)
By The Numbers
USC is 6-6 ATS this year. The under has a mark of 8-3-1 with the Trojans. Penn State is 7-3-1 ATS and the over is 7-4.
Also note, USC is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. the Big 10 and has won those games by an average of 25 points.
Line Movement
USC opened and as a 10-point favorite and the line dropped to -9.
Common Opponents
The Trojans and Nittany Lions have a pair of common foes this season in Oregon State and Ohio State. The Trojans’ national title hopes were derailed by the Beavers in a 27-21 upset victory in Corvalis early in the Pac-10 season, while the Nittany Lions romped past the Beavers 45-16 in the second week of the season.
As for Ohio State, USC stomped the Buckeyes 35-3 back in October at the Coliseum while Penn State managed to get by 13-6 at home.
Statistically Speaking
This figures to be a close one if the numbers are any indication. Penn State averages 452.2 yards and 40.2 points a game while the Trojans offense has put up 452.8 yards and 37.5 points a game. Both teams average exactly 5.3 yards per carry as well. Defensively, the Trojans led the nation by giving up just 7.8 points a game. The Penn State ‘D’ was also proved stingy giving up just 12.4 points a game to rank fourth nationally.
Key Matchup
The Nittany Lions “HD” offense vs. the USC defense.
As noted above, the Trojans ‘D’ didn’t surrender much during the regular season, and based on pure numbers, they are one of the best defenses of all time. In fact, head coach Pete Carroll has gone as far as to call it the best defense he’s had during his tenure at USC.
Penn State and legendary coach Joe Paterno changed to the spread offense this year and it was masterfully ran by quarterback Daryll Clark. The Penn State signal caller threw for 2,319 yards and 17 touchdowns with just four interceptions during the regular season. The scheme allowed senior receivers Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood and Derrick Williams to combine for 121 catches and 15 touchdowns this year. Throw in running back Evan Royster’s 1200+ rushing yards and 12 touchdowns and Carroll is concerned.
He told local media the Trojans haven’t faced anywhere near the offensive arsenal possessed by the Nittany Lions this season. Penn State is facing a secondary that may be the strength of the Trojans defense, though.
The back-four gave up just 122.8 yards a game through the air in the pass-happy Pac-10, which is 37 yards better than its next closest rival nationally.
Head-to-Head
Penn State lost to the Trojans 29-5 in the last matchup in 2000. The two storied programs have split eight all-time meeting beginning with the 1923 Rose Bowl.
What bettors need to know: Orange Bowl
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati (-2.5, 41.5)
Against the Spread
Virginia Tech comes in 5-8 ATS while Cincinnati is 6-6-1.
Tech coach Frank Beamer is 6-9 SU and ATS in bowls while Brian Kelly is 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS at Cincy.
Banged Up
Beamer has indicated his side may be without three starters for the Orange Bowl. Left guard Nick Marshman has been declared academically ineligible while DE Jason Worilds and LB Brett Warren are battling injuries.
Spread ‘Em
Cincinnati’s spread offense will present an interesting matchup against a Tech defense ranked seventh in the nation. With the Bearcats unlikely to run the ball effectively, they will rely on the passing game to try and put points on the board. Junior QB Tony Pike offers good mobility and threw for 18 TDs in 11 games. However, Pike was replaced by senior Dustin Grutza due to ineffectiveness in the season finale against Hawaii. Grutza had started the first two games of the season before breaking his leg against Oklahoma.
Whoever plays at QB for Cincy will have the benefit of throwing to an excellent WR group led by Mardy Gilyard. Gilyard will be by far the most explosive playmaker on the field for either team, having produced 10 TDs and six 100+ yard receiving games.
Gilyard and company will be going up against outstanding CBs Macho Harris and Stephan Virgil, cornerstones of a Tech secondary that is among the best in the nation.
Ball Control
Virginia Tech’s offense is far from explosive itself. While the team’s young QB Tyrod Taylor and its freshman receivers have blossomed late in the season, the name of the game for the Hokies is ball control. Beamer’s offense will seek to pound RB Darren Evans and allow Taylor to manage the game, hoping for long drives that eat clock and wear down the defense. Taylor was virtually flawless in the ACC championship game and will have to build on that performance for the Hokies to win the this game.
Don’t Sleep on Bearcat “D”
While many will focus on the matchup of the Cincy offense against the Tech defense, it should not be forgotten that the Bearcat defense is no slouch either. The unit, which features 10 senior starters, developed an outstanding pass rush over the course of the season and went on to lead the Big East in sacks. This could be a factor against a Tech o-line that has struggled at times and will be without starter Marshman.
Like Virginia Tech, Cincy also has an outstanding secondary. First team All Big East DB Mike Mickens tore a meniscus in November but is expected back for the bowl game.
Special Teams
Tech is solid on special teams as usual, but Cincinnati actually holds an edge in this area. The Bearcats have one of the best all-around special teams units in the country.
Punter Kevin Huber is a returning All-American and a semi-finalist for the 2008 Ray Guy award. Huber averages 44.9 yards per punt and has placed 21 kicks inside the 20.
Returner Mardy Gilyard was ninth in the nation averaging 28 yards per return with two TDs.
Motivation
Both teams should be highly motivated for the game. The Bearcats have to be enthusiastic about playing in their first BCS bowl game.
The Hokies, meanwhile, feel like they have something to prove after blowing last year’s Orange Bowl in a 24-21 loss to Kansas. The team is 0-4 in BCS bowls since beating Texas in the 1995 Sugar Bowl.
Conference credibility is also on the line here since no ACC team has won a BCS bowl since Florida State pulled the trick in 1999.
Line Moves
The line opened Cincy -2, moved to -1 fairly quickly and then back up to 2. The number stands at 2.5 with most books now.
The over/under opened at 41, jumped to 42.5 and then came back down a point to 41.5.
Thursday's Research
By Indiancowboy
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Money is coming in slowly on Brian Kelly's squad here. The Orange Bowl is expected to be a defensive contest as the total is no higher than 41.5 in most places. I actually would have made a play on Cinci except for the fact that I noticed that Pike was questionable for this game so I laid off. In fact, he was listed as highly doubtful a couple of days and now that has changed to doubtful. But, I just cannot imagine him missing this game considering how important it is. You notice that this team the team ranked higher is actually giving the points? We have seen many, many times that the team not in the top 25 laying points and then go on to win the game. In this case, it is the 12th ranked team indeed that is laying the points despite the public slightly favoring Va Tech. Va Tech comes off the ACC Championship here and will play the Big East Champion in Cincy. Cincy has played very well this year with just 2 losses and one of them was a hiccup at Uconn. Pike has thrown for 18 touchdowsn and 7 picks while Va Tech's quarterbacks have overall terrible stats. But, it is this team's opportunistic defense that gets it done each and every time. Don't count Cincy out with their top 30 defense, 12th in rushing and 26th in overall points scored as both teams have great defenses but it is Cincy that has the clear edge on offense as they are top 50 overall while Va Tech is not even top 100 overall on offense. Having said that, a lot of this determines on if Pike will play - if he does, lean certainly goes on Brian Kelly's Bearcat squad.
Clemson vs. Nebraska
Nebraska is 8-4 and they play Clemson here. The ACC has had a good run if you think about it with FSU doing well and Maryland doing well as well. In short, the ACC in general is doing very well in "an up year". The biggest difference could be the quarterbacks as Cullen Harper has thrown for 11 touchdowns and 12 picks while Nebraska's Joe Ganz has thrown for 22 touchdowns and 10 picks. This game is in Jacksonville but do expect Clemson to have en edge in the crowd there but Husker fans are just thrilled just to see their team back in a Bowl Game. After all, this team has a proud history when Tom Osborne was at the helm of this National Title Squad. Clemson came on strong to close out the year covering the last 3 contests in the ACC as they won 3 straight. A key stat that could make the difference as well is the fact that Clemson's defense is ranked top 20 in the nation and top 10 in points allowed while Nebraska's defense is ranked 64th and 85th overall. I just think outside of the top 3, the Big 12 is being a bit overvalued a bit and the ACC is having a relatively good bowl season.