Texas A&M at Oklahoma State: What bettors Need to Know
By Ben Burns
Two undefeated but unproven teams collide Thursday, when Texas A&M visits Oklahoma State in a primetime Big 12 showdown on ESPN.
Neither the Cowboys (3-0) nor the Aggies (3-0) have played an opponent of any significance. Oklahoma State has compiled fat offensive numbers … against the defenses of Washington State, Troy and Tulsa. A&M is among the nation’s top-ranked defenses … after slowing down the vaunted offenses of Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech and Florida International.
Talk about meaningless statistics.
The Cowboys, who returned just eight starters, were picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 South. The Aggies, who returned 16 starters, are expected to challenge Oklahoma and Texas.
Oklahoma State has won the past two meetings with the Aggies by average score of 46-29. But the Cowboys have never beaten A&M three straight games.
THE LINE
Oddsmakers certainly don’t believe either team has a significant advantage. They opened the Cowboys as 3.5-point home favorites. It quickly dropped to -3, as the half-point hook seems valuable in what’s expected to be a close game that easily could be decided by a field goal.
Since 2000, Texas A&M is 9-22 ATS as a road dog, Oklahoma State is 20-11 ATS as a home favorite the past 10 seasons.
THE TOTAL
The total started popping up as high as 68 at some books. It had dropped slightly, to around 66.5, as of Wednesday morning.
The last three meetings have averaged a combined 66 points, including last year’s 36-31 Oklahoma State victory.
The Cowboys are averaging 59 points per game and allowing 27.67. A&M is averaging 41 points per game and is allowing 14.33. But, again, those stats have come against weak competition.
The over is 20-6-1 in the Aggies last 27 games as a road underdog.
Weather is not forecast to play a role.
INJURIES
A&M star linebacker/defensive end Von Miller, who led the nation in sacks last season, has been battling ankle injuries and has yet to record a sack. Miller will play, but is not expected to be at 100 percent.
Oklahoma State starting defensive tackle Shane Jarka has missed the last two games and is questionable against A&M.
QUARTERBACK
Oklahoma State first-year starter Brandon Weeden has been spectacular. The 6-4, 224-pound pocket passer is completing 73 percent of his attempts with 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Thursday’s game is the biggest start of his career, but the 26-year-old ex-minor league baseball player has shown no signs of cracking so far.
A&M’s Jerrod Johnson was picked as the Big 12 preseason offensive player of the year. Now in his third season, Johnson has developed into one of the nation’s best dual-threat QBs. He did, however, struggle against Florida International, completing just 11 of 31 passes and throwing four interceptions. There was some concern that his surgically-repaired shoulder was bothering him, but coach Mike Sherman denied those rumors this week.
BATTLE IN THE TRENCHES
Texas A&M has struggled protecting Johnson this season. The Aggies have surrendered 3.33 sacks per game (111th in the nation).
Oklahoma State’s defense has been average at getting to the quarterback with two sacks per game. But how much do you need to blitz in the second half of blowouts like the Cowboys have experienced?
Noting the Aggies’ protection struggles, expect OSU to bring more pressure Thursday.
The Cowboys’ O-line also will be tested, especially when trying to open holes for playmaking running back Kendall Hunter. A Heisman candidate entering last season, Hunter battled through an injury-played junior season. He appears to be back at full strength this season and is averaging 7.9 yards per carry.
A&M counters with the nation’s fourth-ranked run defense and are allowing only 69 yards on the ground.
Hunter did not play against the A&M game last season. The Aggies held him to 90 yards in 2008.
Thursday's Game Analysis
Oklahoma State beat Texas Aggies last two years, 56-28/36-31; OSU is 13-6 as home favorite since 2006 (2-1 this year). Young Cowboys lost 8 starters on both sides of ball from LY, but are 3-0 so far, struggling only in 41-38 win over Troy. Texas A&M was losing at home to FIU in 4th quarter of last game, won 27-20; they're 4-7 as road dog since '07. This is first road game of year for team with 16 returning starters and senior QB. Average total in last five series games is 70.0.
Tips and Trends
Texas A&M Aggies AT Oklahoma St. Cowboys
AGGIES: Texas AM has been waiting for this game for quite some time. The Aggies have revenge on their minds, after losing at home last season 31-36 to Oklahoma St. in a very memorable game. Texas AM rolls into tonight's contest undefeated at 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. The Aggies are a very talented team in their own right, as they've been a double digit favorite in each game they've played this season. Tonight will represent the 1st road game of the year, and it will come in a hostile environment. The Aggies have a prolific offense in their own right, as they have the 12th best scoring offense in the nation at 41 PPG. QB Jerrod Johnson is easily one of the most dynamic QB's in the nation, and he is the clear leader of this team. Johnson has thrown for 865 YDS and 7 TD's this season, and is expected to challenge for Offensive Player of the Year in the Big 12. Johnson is coming off a terrible game against FIU, where he threw 4 INT's. Defensively, the Aggies have only allowed 14.3 PPG this season. FIU was the only team to score more than 16 PTS against the Aggies. Texas AM will have to have an inspired defensive effort if they are to exact their revenge in a hostile environment.
Aggies are 9-24-1 ATS last 34 games as a road underdog.
Over is 20-6-1 last 27 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - DB Steven Campbell (foot) is probable.
Projected Score: 34 (SIDE of the Day)
COWBOYS: (-3.5, O/U 68) With a win tonight, it's quite likely that Oklahoma St. will find themselves in the national rankings. The Cowboys are a perfect 3-0 SU this year, with all 3 games coming at home. Oklahoma St. has played to the over in each game this season, with much credit going to their offense. The Cowboys offense is averaging 57 PPG this season, 2nd most in the nation. QB Brandon Weeden has thrown for 975 YDS this season, including 11 TD's. WR Justin Blackmon has been the recipient of 8 of those TD's, at least 2 in each game this season. Showing how well rounded this Cowboys offense has been this year is the play of RB Kendall Hunter. Despite all the gaudy passing numbers, Hunter has rushed for 473 YDS with 6 TD's this year. For Oklahoma St. to become a force on the national stage, they will have to improve defensively. The Cowboys allow 27.7 PPG this year, placing them in the bottom third in the nation. The Cowboys nearly lost at home to Troy this year, as they gave up 38 PTS.
Cowboys are 11-4 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
Over is 13-4 last 17 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - DT Shane Jarka (knee) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 31
Texas A&M at Oklahoma St.
By Christian Alexander
Texas A&M (3-0, 0-0 Big 12) at Oklahoma State (1-1, 0-0 Big 12)
TV: 7:30 PM ESPN
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium (Artificial grass)
Line: Oklahoma State -3 O/U 67
After spending the first four Thursday nights in the southeast, checking out teams in the SEC and ACC, it’s time to get a look at some other parts of the country. For those scoring at home, after an 0-2 start I’m on a mini-roll and with Miami’s spanking of Pittsburgh last weekend, have leveled my record at 2-2 this year. Let’s hope we can keep it going as we head west.
This Thursday night we catch up with a pair of Big 12 teams, one from Texas and the other from Oklahoma. But before you get too excited, no, the Red River Rivalry has not been moved to Thursday night. You will have to wait until Saturday for that contest.
Consider this the opening act for the Red River Rivalry as Texas A&M pays a visit to Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, OK, home of the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
By the fifth week of the season, most teams have started their conference schedules and we’ve gotten the opportunity to size up their potential against teams of similar skill. Unfortunately, that only applies to most schools. Enter Texas A&M and Oklahoma State who are a perfect 6-0 combined and yet we still don’t know a whole lot about these teams.
Why? Well, let me give you six reasons: Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Florida International, Washington State, Troy, and Tulsa. In short, there just isn’t much we can tell about either program about playing the aforementioned slate of cupcakes.
Oh sure, I can throw out some stats for you. Try these on for size:
# Oklahoma State is No. 1 in the nation in total offense and second in scoring at 57 points per game
# Texas A&M is ranked 10th in the nation in total defense
I could continue with these stats but the exercise would be pointless. We simply won’t know a lot about these teams until after this game. That makes picking a winner here especially tricky. Here is what we do know:
If you asked all the preseason pundits, Oklahoma State was supposed to take a big step back this year. Phil Steele, who produces one of the best preseason magazines with his 2010 College Football Preview predicted that the Cowboys would have “their 1st losing season since 2005.”
Granted, there is plenty of time left for that to still happen but even Steele would have to admit that Oklahoma State’s performance so far 2010 has given those predicting gloom and doom for the Cowboys reason to pause. The high octane offense is being powered by a trio of stars.
RB Kendall Hunter is the player – and maybe the only one in Stillwater – that people expected to shine this season and thus far he has not disappointed. The senior tailback ranks tops in the Big 12 in all-purpose yardage with a 198.3-yard average and is dangerous on special teams with his kickoff returns.
The big surprise has been at the all-important quarterback position. Zac Robinson was the heart and soul of this offense for the past three seasons and his departure (now with the Seattle Seahawks) seemed to signal a rebuilding project for the Oklahoma State offense.
Enter Brandon Weeden, or I should actually say, re-enter Brandon Weeden. You see, coming out of Edmond Santa Fe High School in Oklahoma in 2002, Weeden was a 2nd round draft choice of the New York Yankees. After a couple years in the Yankees organization, he was traded to the Dodgers (in the Kevin Brown deal) and then eventually made his way to the Royals by way of the 2005 Rule V Draft.
Of course, spending time in the Royals organization is worse than San Quentin and will quickly test one’s desire to play pro baseball. Predictably, Weeden hung up his baseball cleats in 2006 and headed back to Oklahoma where he enrolled at Oklahoma State.
Thus far in 2010, Weeden has acquitted himself quite nicely on the football field and following the win over the Golden Hurricane on Sept. 18, the former baseball prospect was ranked second nationally in passing yards and sixth in efficiency. It certainly doesn’t hurt that WR Justin Blackmon has stepped up and is doing his best Dez Bryant impression.
Along with the loss of Robinson, Bryant – now with the Dallas Cowboys and picking up $54,896 dinners – was the other loss from the Oklahoma State offense that was supposed to set the program back. However, Blackmon currently leads the nation in receiving yards (143.7 per game) and scoring among receivers (18.0). Much of the credit for Oklahoma State’s quick start on offense has to go to offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen, who left his post at the University of Houston after the 2009 season. Holgorsen has implemented the spread offense that was so successful at Houston and so far the results have been all that head coach Mike Gundy could ask for. Then again, maybe we’ll check in and see how Gundy is feeling after Thursday night’s game. There is little doubt that Texas A&M will be the best team Oklahoma State has seen this year and especially on defense. Defense used to be the calling card of Texas A&M football. The Aggies commonly went by the name “The Wrecking Crew” in the 80’s and 90’s but with their more recent performance, the nickname has understandably worn off.
Defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter would love to establish that reputation again and he has the talent this year to start heading in that direction. The linebacking corp has been crucial so far as Lucas Patterson, Garrick Williams, and freshman Demontre Moore have been game changers.
Making their defensive performance even more impressive is that so far they have done it with little help from the 2009 national leader in sacks, Von Miller. The senior, who plays a little LB and some DE is still dealing with a sprained ankle he suffered in the season opener.
However, if Texas A&M is to win this Thursday night, the will need a great game from their defense and their offense. That means QB Jerrod Johnson simply can’t afford to have anything like the game he had against Florida International last time out when he threw four interceptions during a span of eight passes in the third quarter.
Johnson will look to WRs Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller as well as lean heavily on RB Christine Michael who has rushed for 100 yards in each of the three games so far in 2010.
If the Aggies can emerge for Pickens Stadium 4-0 and considering the way Texas and Oklahoma look so far this year, Mike Sherman’s bunch would have to be considered a legit threat to make a run at their first Big 12 South Division title since 1998.
Texas A&M leads the all-time series 17-8 but the Cowboys have won two in a row, including last year’s 36-31 win at College Station.
Texas A&M is 1-1 against the spread in 2010 while Oklahoma State is 2-1 ATS. This will be the first road game of the year for the Aggies.
VegasInsider.com