Thursday Newsletters

THE SPORTS MEMO

OUTBACK BOWL
Iowa vs. South Carolina +3.5 O/U 43
Thursday, January 1, 11 am ET ESPN - Tampa, Fla.
Recommendation: South Carolina

This game projects to be a defensive matchup with long-time coaches Kirk Ferentz and Steve Spurrier squaring off. When looking at these two teams we clearly notice that both closed out the campaign headed in different directions. The Hawkeyes finished the season winning three-straight with an upset over then undefeated Penn State and a 55-0 blowout over rival Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks lost their last two games to Florida and Clemson by a combined margin of 87-20. Still we must keep an open mind and consider the full body of work of both teams. Unquestionably, the Gamecocks played the much tougher schedule in the SEC. Games against Florida, Clemson, Ole Miss and Georgia are just a few of the speed-orientated teams that littered the South Carolina slate. Iowa played a watered down Big Ten schedule and even avoided playing Ohio State. From a perception standpoint, how much should the win over Penn State play into handicapping this game? Outside of that contest, Iowa’s body of work is no better or no worse than that of South Carolina. Now we won’t discredit Iowa’s monster win, but it’s too easy to toss aside the team that looked bad down the stretch in favor of one that played well. It is important to remember that with the amount of time in between the end of the season and the bowl game, a team can lose momentum as quickly as it can be gained. On the field, the vital matchup just could be South Carolina redshirt freshman quarterback Stephen Garcia against a formidable Iowa defense. The Gamecocks’ offense threw 24 interceptions on the season, while Iowa picked off 20 passes. In addition, the Gamecocks found it tough sledding on the ground, running for an average of just 98.3 yards per game. Again, this all seems to favor Iowa with its stout defense that ranked tenth in the nation against the run. On the other side of the football, the Hawkeyes will have their own “green” quarterback with Ricky Stanzi taking the snaps. Stanzi was rarely in the position of having to make a difference as running back Shonn Greene and his 1,700+ yards keyed the success. This is a matchup however where the Hawkeyes are not going to be able to sit back, run the football and coast to victory. South Carolina has shown the ability to be one of the top stop defensive units in the SEC. The stats don’t necessarily show it but the speed and pursuit of the football are there. Let’s also acknowledge that USC’s offense was not as bad as the numbers suggest. They surprisingly outgained nine of their first 10 opponents on the season. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes were actually out gained in four of their last five football games. Reports out of Columbia had the Gamecocks holding a players’ only meeting after their fiasco against Clemson to close the season. Last season’s bowl season saw six teams close out the year on runs of 5-1 or better and all six lost outright and against the spread. We toss aside what is fresh in most people’s minds and look at the bigger picture, which makes South Carolina the play.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Michigan State vs. Georgia -7.5 O/U 45
Thursday, January 1, 1 pm ET ABC - Orlando, Fla.
Recommendation: Georgia

Despite facing perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country, Georgia began 2008 with high aspirations for a BCS Title berth. Ranked as the No. 1 team in the nation for the first month of the season, they appeared to be well on their way with what were regarded as impressive wins at South Carolina and Arizona State. It all collapsed when in a “blackout” game at home against Alabama, the Bulldogs were throttled by the Tide in a 41-30 loss. Georgia never seemed to fully recover,struggling to dispatch Vanderbilt,Tennessee, Kentucky and Auburn. Losses outright to Florida and Georgia Tech in games of significant consequence down the stretch perhaps indicated that Georgia was overrated. Further indication of market inflation is the fact that the Bulldogs have failed to cover eight consecutive games as a favorite. Therein lies the value as the market has over adjusted in response to Georgia’s repeated failures against the number. Still our play here is more of a play against Michigan State. Outside of Javon Ringer there isn’t much to like about Michigan State’s offense. The receiving corps looked like a weak unit after losing Devin Thomas and Kellen Davis in the off-season. Those concerns played out on the field as quarterback Brian Hoyer barely completed 50% of his passes and had as many picks (eight) as he did touchdowns. His worst performances came against the best competition as he combined to throw three interceptions and no touchdowns in games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State. Knowing that, it isn’t hard to understand why Ringer carried the ball a staggering 370 times this season. Yet while Ringer has proven to be a game breaker against lesser foes, he has largely failed when forced to play against a solid defensive unit. In the three biggest games of the season against Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State, he barely averaged three yards per carry as he was held to 163 yards on 54 carries. Those same three opponents racked up over 462 yards of their own on the ground. Furthermore the Spartans lost by a combined count of 104-25 to Penn State and Ohio State. These two teams were the only opponents on their schedule that held a comparable athletic edge like Georgia. Matthew Stafford will be displaying his skills for a number of pro scouts and we don’t expect him to disappoint. He finished the year as the SEC’s leading passer and sported a solid 22-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio. But the real key to Georgia’s rout will be Knowshon Moreno who against some of the toughest defenses in the country closed the season with five 100+ yard rushing efforts in his final seven games. This should prove to be a cakewalk as we lay the points with Georgia.

GATOR BOWL
Clemson -2.5 vs. Nebraska O/U 55
Thursday, January 1, 1 pm CBS - Jacksonville, Fla.
Recommendation: Clemson

What a turnaround for the Clemson Tigers. Mired in the malaise of another underachieving season, the program took action and fired Tommy Bowden after the Tigers fell to 3-4. More so than the actual results of the season, it appeared that the reason Bowden was fired was that he had lost his team. Several quotes attributed to key players after the coaching change spoke harshly regarding their opinion of Bowden. Team leaders CJ Spiller and Cullen Harper came out strongly and voiced their criticism. This program was in disarray until Dabo Swinney took over on an interim basis and led the Tigers to victory in four of its last five games. With the turnaround complete, he was given the head coaching position officially after the Tigers ended the regular season by crushing their in-state rival, South Carolina. In fairness to Bowden, the real cause for the lack of success was the overwhelming amount of injuries and attrition suffered along the offensive line. Trying to replace three lost starters Clemson used eight different starting combinations in its 12 games. They started three red shirt freshmen and in mid-season were forced to reactivate coach Bobby Hutchinson who had opted to forgo his final year of eligibility to join the coaching staff. It wasn’t until the final three games of the season that Clemson started the same five linemen for three consecutive games. Perhaps not coincidentally the Clemson offense started to pick up around the same time. Meanwhile Nebraska’s nondescript season was lost in all the highlights of Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. For that matter, Missouri, Oklahoma State and even Baylor seemed to warrant more coverage. The Cornhuskers finished the campaign 8-4 under first year head coach Bo Pelini and the enthusiasm for the program has been restored. Expected to immediately have an impact on the defense, the results weren’t there as Nebraska allowed 362 yards per game and ranked just 66th nationally. These numbers were a far cry from Pelini’s previous successes. In 2003 his first year as Nebraska’s defensive coordinator the defense improved from 55th to 11th in the nation. In 2004 Pelini was Oklahoma’s co-defensive coordinator and the Sooners were 6th in rushing defense and 11th in scoring defense. He joined the LSU staff in 2005 as the Tigers’ defensive coordinator. LSU was ranked third nationally in overall defense for each of his three years with the Tigers. The same overwhelming improvement did not occur for Nebraska. Against both the run and the pass, the Cornhuskers were susceptible. While Clemson’s season long numbers don’t show it, this offense is capable as evidenced by the fact that they scored 27 or more in four of its last five games. Defensively Clemson performed well all season long allowing only two opponents, Alabama and Florida State, to score more than 21 points. All totaled they held six of their 12 opponents to 14 or fewer points. In this matchup Clemson holds advantages over Nebraska on both sides of the ball. We expect a strong effort from Tigers and will side with the better defensive team in a motivated setting. Lay the short price.

ROSE BOWL
Penn State vs. USC -10 O/U 45.5
Thursday, January 1, 4:30 pm ET ABC - Pasadena, Calif.
Recommendation: Under

Many would argue this Rose Bowl matchup would be a perfect game for a No. 4 versus No. 5 seed in an eight-team playoff system.While that projected “playoff” game won’t take place, this game still has plenty of meaning as Pasadena gets its traditional Big Ten vs. Pac-10 matchup. The overall story for both teams this season is strikingly similar. Both USC and Penn State played in conferences that were down, they both dominated inferior foes and they each had one small blemish on their otherwise impressive resumes. Penn State is expected to travel over 25,000 strong for this game and while they certainly had aspirations of an undefeated season and a National Championship, enthusiasm runs high. While the experience is new for Penn State, the Rose Bowl is becoming a regular part of USC’s schedule. This will mark their fourth straight year in the granddaddy of them all. The Trojans absolutely crushed its last two Big Ten opponents, Michigan and Illinois, by a combined score of 81-35. Most would agree that Penn State is better than those two previous Big Ten entrants. While we can’t take too much from the results these two teams do share one common opponent in the sturdy Ohio State Buckeyes. Early in the season USC as a 10.5-point home favorite blitzed Ohio State 35-3. Later in the season the Nittany Lions won in Columbus 13-6 as a small road favorite. Combined Ohio State scored just nine points total in the two games. Defense should rule the field in this match-up as well. On the field, the intriguing and perhaps deciding matchup will be the tremendous USC defense against Penn State’s “Spread-HD” offense.On the season, USC allowed just 206 yards a game and an amazing 7.8 points per contest. In fact, they allowed just two teams to score double-digits and allowed only two passing touchdowns their last eight games. Need more impressive defensive ammo, how about this stat? In Pac-10 play, USC allowed opponents inside the red zone just 22 times. We can not project the Penn State rush offense to produce even close to its 212 rushing yards per game average. Therefore the onus falls to the passing game and more specifically quarterback Daryll Clark. Clearly, he and the rest of the Nittany Lions will have their hands full. For much of the season, Clark was arguably the best quarterback in the Big Ten. However he failed against better competition.He was pulled from the game and benched against Ohio State and in their lone loss of the season to Iowa he was dismal with a 9-of-23 performance. USC’s offense was certainly not as potent as past editions. The Trojans’ seemed bogged down at key moments with Mark Sanchez under center. Outside of contests against both Washington schools, USC averaged a modest 28.5 points per game in league play. Throughout the season were numerous times when the Trojans looked more than comfortable to rely on its defense and to play it conservative on offense. We expect that same approach to be on display here as well. Play it under the number.

ORANGE BOWL
Cincinnati -1.5 vs. Virginia Tech O/U 41.5
Thursday, January 1, 8:30 pm ET FOX - Miami
Recommendation: Cincinnati

For the Hokies, a trip to the BCS is nothing new. Having a virtual stranglehold on the ACC and Big East over the past ten seasons, Virginia Tech has made it to four BCS games. Unfortunately they have lost each appearance including last year to Kansas. For the Bearcats, they will be in uncharted waters as Brian Kelly’s team wrapped up their first ever BCS appearance and Big East title. The path for both teams was quite different this season. The Hokies somehow escaped the ACC despite sporting the conference’s worst offense and having a pair of quarterbacks who failed to qualify for the season ending passer-rating category. Of course it was expected that this team would struggle for points early on after dismissing their best running back and losing numerous talented receivers to the NFL. But the widely held belief that this team would improve down the stretch just didn’t turn out to be true. The Hokies barely managed to score 20 points per game in ACC play, scoring just 14 offensive touchdowns in eight games. The opposition has dared Virginia Tech to beat them in one-on-one coverage and more often than not they failed to do so. Fundamentally this will prove to be a tough matchup against a stellar Cincinnati secondary that sports a DYPP of just 5.10 according to our Accu-Stat numbers – one of the best in the country. Cincinnati’s own offense has managed to overcome numerous setbacks at the quarterback position. First, they learned Ben Mauk would be denied eligibility and then they lost Dustin Grutza just weeks into the season. His replacement, Tony Pike, went down with an injury a few weeks later. Still the Bearcats persevered, going on to beat West Virginia, Rutgers, Pitt and Louisville en route to a conference championship. All told, the trio of starters under center combined to throw for 3,300 yards and 25 touchdowns with just 11 interceptions. Kelly’s “Cat Attack” system has proven to be a thorn in many a defenses’ side and their multiple spread formations should be a handful for the Virginia Tech defense. In their last five bowl appearances the Hokies have lost four times and the defense has allowed nearly 15 points per game more than their season average in those contests. So for as good as Frank Beamer’s teams have been in the regular season they have largely failed to live up to the hype come postseason play. While this could be considered just another game for Virginia Tech, it is a big deal for Cincinnati. Brian Kelly is a great coach and his teams are on a 34-12 spread run dating back to his time at Central Michigan. Finding ways to win regardless of the situation or opponent is something Cincinnati does regularly. No reason to expect anything different here.

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK

Thursday, January 1st
OUTBACK BOWL
Raymond James Stadium • Tampa, FL
S Carolina over Iowa by 1
It used to be New Year’s Day games were considered the ‘major bowls’. Not
so anymore as only the Rose and Orange Bowls dot this year’s schedule as
BCS events. Still, it’s 2009 and the Gamecocks and Hawkeyes are in sunny
Florida for a battle of two squads that combined to 15-9 this season (you
can make that 27-21 if you count last year’s records). Both teams stayed
home for the holidays last season and both bring defenses that practically
mirror one another – each allowing 289 YPG on the season. Iowa stepped
up to the plate and delivered against fellow bowlers this season, gong
5-1 ATS. The Hawkeyes held 3 of their fi nal 4 opponents to season low
– or 2nd low – yardage marks but were outstatted in 4 of the last 5 games
to conclude the season. Iowa, under head coach Kirk Ferentz, has cashed
in 4 of its 6 bowl appearances and stands a perfect 4-0 ATS against nonconference
opposition that is off a SU and ATS loss. His colleague, Steve
Spurrier, is 4-1 SU in games against Big 10 foes and 11-4 ATS in games
off back-to-back losses. Aside from SEC bowl dogs barking the loudest
this decade (18-9 ATS), the Cocks are 4-1 SU and ATS as bowlers since
1995. The bottom line here is this is an attractive matchup of middle-tier
teams. We’ll opt for the SEC puppy over the Big 10 (5-1 ATS in these bowl
pairings this decade) at a site that favors the Ole Ball Coach and his good
ole boys.

GATOR BOWL
Municipal Stadium • Jacksonville, FL
Nebraska over Clemson by 4
Nice job by both freshman coaches in getting their teams to Jacksonville
this New Year’s Day. Husker boss Bo Pelini took over a program that was a
red-faced embarrassment last year and instilled a modicum of pride and a
heavy dose of defense (Nebraska’s stop-unit improved 115 YPG this season
from last) to bring them back to life. As a result, the Cornhuskers are on
a neat 6-1 ITS (In The Stats) roll heading into this contest. Think about
that for a moment. We’re talking about a team that has outgained 6 of
its last 7 opponents – all in Big 12 play where the yards are piled up faster
than banks and automakers looking for bailouts. One especially salient
stat in Big Corn’s favor is their 8-0 ATS log in bowl games when playing
off a win of more than 7 points. On the Clemson side of the game, former
interim and newly-named head coach Dabo Swinney leads his troops into
this challenge with the knowledge that bowlers riding a 3-0 SU and ATS
win streak are just 11-31 ATS when off an ATS win of 8 or more points. That
win was against bitter rival South Carolina. We point that out because the
Tigers are just 3-8 SU and ATS in bowl games off a win over the Gamecocks,
including 0-6 ATS as favorites! In some cases a little Dabo’ll do you. Not
against this ilk. Nebraska completes the turnaround with a statementmaking
victory.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Florida Citrus Bowl • Orlando, FL
Georgia over Michigan St by 3
There are two ways to look at this game. One – the preseason No. 1 team
in the land, Georgia, has a chance to vindicate itself with a season-ending
win over the Spartans. Or, two, they come fl at as an Aunt Jemima pancake.
Our best guess is the latter. Sure, it’s easy to say the talent is there and they
can throw the switch at any given moment but we simply can’t get past
Mark Richt’s defense that allowed 38 or more points in 4 of its fi nal 5 games
to close out the season. To put it into better perspective, consider that in
25 years under head coach Vince Dooley the Bulldogs allowed 38 or more
points TWO TIMES. Not the kind of warm and fuzzy numbers that make you
want to cozy up with a touchdown favorite in a bowl game that is a different
planet away from where they expected to be when the season began. To
their credit, Georgia did face the toughest slate of competition among all
bowlers this season (foes’ combined win percentage was .607). But Michigan
State fi ts that mold and the Spartans fi gure to be especially anxious to make
amends for their 31-point season ending loss at Penn State. And head coach
Mark Dantonio is adept at doing just that considering his 9-3-1 ATS mark as
a dog off a loss, including 7-0-1 ATS when taking less than 8 points. Behind
senior RB Javon Ringer and senior QB Brian Hoyer, the Spartans are a veteran
squad that is well-coached and disciplined (average less than 2 turnovers per
game). We’ll take a side of bacon along with poached eggs and home fries
with our fl apjacks. In a battle of Marks, Dantonio is the way to go.

ROSE BOWL
Rose Bowl Stadium • Pasadena, CA
Usc over Penn St by 13
If USC and Penn State hadn’t suffered surprising losses to Oregon State
and Iowa, respectively, this game would be for the cheese. Instead it’s
for the Roses, which makes for one heck of a runnerup game for the BCS
Championship. The mighty Trojans, who by the way have never played a
Division 1-AA opponent, held no less than 8 foes to season low yards this
season (2nd only to TCU). And we all know Pete Carroll’s numbers. Arguably
the most successful college coach against the number in college football
annals, Carroll is at his best when playing with rest as his 18-6 SU and ATS
mark in college games confi rms, including 11-2 SU and ATS when facing a
.750 or greater opponent. He is also spotless against the Big 10 going 5-0 SU
and ATS. Today’s game marks the 4th straight appearance in the Rose Bowl
for USC as Pasadena is literally their home away from home. What is perhaps
most impressive about the Trojans has been their play on the fi eld against
fellow bowl teams where they are 29-5 ITS (In The Stats) the last 5 years
– winning by an average of 209 YPG this season, the best among all 2008
bowl teams. Meanwhile, Joe Pa’s new spread offense was topped only once
in 2008 when they lost by 6 yards to Ohio State in a 13-6 win at Columbus.
Today will mark the fi rst time in the last 17 games the Lions will dress up
as underdogs. The question is: are they deserving? Considering the Big 10’s
recent mark against the PAC 10 in bowl games (0-7 ATS) and the fact that
this is the cheapest price the Trojans have been this season says yes. Tough
call but we want no part of fading these Carrollers during the holidays.

ORANGE BOWL
Dolphin Stadium • Miami, FL
Virginia Tech over Cincinnati by 3
Now here’s a BCS bowl game that we’re absolutely sure you will be able
to walk up to the ticket offi ce and buy a seat 10 minutes before kickoff.
Talk about lack of interest; this year’s Orange Bowl looks downright acidic.
Sure, the Bearcats have won 6 games in a row and head coach Brian Kelly
is on everyone’s short list for a new hire in 2010 (the guy is a winner) but
Cincinnati is not your typical dream team. Kelly is 10-1 SU and 10-0-1 ATS as
a favorite or dog of less than 20 points against .750 or greater opposition
and the Bearcats have won each of their last 3 bowl games. We don’t like the
fact that they have surrendered 20 or more points in 4 of their fi nal 5 games.
That’s because Frank Beamer is 34-13 ATS as a head coach with Virginia
Tech in games in which his team scores 20 or more points as an underdog,
including 14-3 ATS against an .850 or greater opponent. The Hokies lost to
Kansas as 3-point favorites in the Orange Bowl last year, making them an
avenging bowl-returning dog. Toss in Beamer’s 4-0 ATS mark as a dog of 6
or fewer points off a SU and ATS win when taking on teams from the Big
East and you can understand our admiration for VPI. After all, we have an
affi nity for bowl dogs with better defenses, especially those looking to make
amends. Forget StubHub. Walk up to the window and take a seat along side
Beamer’s Boys. We think you’ll like the view.

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP

SYSTEM SELECTIONS:

UNGROUNDED
Play AGAINST a New Years Day Bowl Team that was outrushed by 20+ ypg during the year.
Reasoning: Being in a Major Bowl, you are playing against a quality opponent and need to be able to establish a running game to compete.
10-0 100% ATS since 1996
Play against S Carolina PLAY: IOWA

OUTBACK BOWL

This is the first meeting between these schools but Tampa is a familiar destination for both. Iowa
has been here twice upsetting Zook’s Florida Gators 37-17 (+3’) in ‘03 but losing to Meyer’s 1st Gators
squad, 31-24 (E) in ‘05. SC is 2-0 SU & ATS here beating Ohio St in B2B matchups under Lou Holtz in
‘00 & ‘01. Ferentz is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in bowls (2-1 SU & ATS vs SEC) but this is the 1st time his team is
favored. Spurrier is 7-7 SU & ATS in bowls (1-1 at SC) and 1-2 SU & ATS as a bowl dog. Iowa is 5-3 ATS
as a fav & SC is 1-3-1 as a dog TY. UI was 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS vs bowl teams with the 3 losses (all vs tms
with 9 wins) by a combined 9 pts. The Hawks outscored bowl foes 28-16 and outgained them 368-293.
SC was 3-5 vs bowl tms (3-4-1 ATS) being outscored 24-19 with the ydg surprisingly even. Iowa got this
bowl bid over a 9 win Northwestern team that it lost to based on their reputation as travellers and their
fans should be eager to snap up tickets after sitting home LY. SC also sat home in ‘07 at 6-6 and have
sold their allotments to previous bowls giving them this bid over LSU. Iowa has 6 senior starters among
11 upperclassmen and SC has 7 senior starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles.
The Hawkeyes finished the spring with a walk-on as the starting TB and QB Christensen in his 2nd
season as a starter. Over the summer bruising TB Shonn Greene returned to the program and the Hawks
wisely built their #41 offense around him. The results were spectacular as Greene set a school record in
rush yards, earning the Big Ten’s Offensive POY as the NCAA’s only RB to run for at least 100 yds in all
12 games. Greene’s presence allowed the staff to bench Christensen for the more mobile Ricky Stanzi.
Stanzi’s level of play picked up as the season progressed as he led the Hawks to their 4Q comeback
over undefeated Penn St. His top targets are WR’s Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (7 rec vs the Lions) and
1st Tm All Big Ten TE Brandon Myers. The OL was greatly improved as they cut their sacks allowed from
46 in ‘07 to 26 (8.6%). Iowa is #10 in our defensive rankings. UI has the NCAA’s most experienced DT
tandem in Matt Kroul and Big Ten DL of the Year Mitch King. With them clogging the middle the Hawks
are #10 in the NCAA in rush defense (98.3, 3.1). The LB’s are active with 2nd Tm Big Ten honoree Pat
Angerer actually leading the league in int’s. The secondary is #8 in our pass eff D allowing 191 ypg (56%)
with an 8-20 ratio. Iowa has our #30 ST’s unit led by P Ryan Donahue.
Spurrier is notoriously hard on QBs and TY was no exception but the QB position was just one of
many disappointing parts of SC’s #73 offense. Beecher started the opener but threw 4 int and was later
inj’d playing just 1 more gm all yr. Smelley (6 sts ‘07) std the next 6, until Garcia led SC to 10 pts in the
4Q vs KY to pull out a 24-17 win, earning the start at LSU. Garcia st’d the next 2 until a knee inj vs Tenn
gave Smelley another chance. Smelley st’d the L/3 with both QBs alternating on every other snap vs
Ark and then both playing in their blowout loss to FL. Smelley played the whole gm in a losing effort vs
Clemson and Spurrier said that Garcia would start the bowl. QB cch Reaves left SC after the reg ssn.
RB Davis led the tm in rushing, but SC ranks last in the SEC (#108 NCAA) in rush off (98 ypg, 2.9). WR
McKinley led the tm in recs & rec yds despite missing 3 gms with an inj and surpassed Sterling Sharpe
as SC’s all-time leading rec and rec ydg leader. TE Cook has 4.37 spd and was named 1st Tm SEC. The
OL was once again a weakness with the lineup shuffled often to try to increase production. The starters
avg 6’5” 301 with 2 seniors but allowed 38 sks (9.5%, 2nd worst in SEC) and OL coach Hunt was let go
after the reg ssn. SC’s #11 defense made huge strides under new DC Ellis Johnson TY improving their
rush ypg allowed from 209 (4.8) in ‘07 to 129 ypg (3.6) TY. LB Norwood earned 1st Tm SEC leading the
tm with 13 tfl and SS Emanuel Cook is 2nd Tm SEC leading the tm in tkls for the 2nd straight yr. SC is
#26 in our pass D rankings allowing 160 pass ypg (57%) with an 8-12 ratio. SC’s sp tms rank #56 with K
Succop missing 2 FGs vs Vandy and 4 vs UK (2 were 50+) but otherwise hitting 17 of 20 and had TBs
on 42% of his KOs. The return gm was avg and P Lanning’s net was just 34.3.
Iowa finished the season with 3 straight wins including the upset of Penn St to make it to this bowl.
South Carolina meanwhile dropped their last 2 (Clemson & Florida) by a combined score of 87-20. The
key to this game will be the QB that makes the fewest mistakes as both defenses rate in the Top 15. The
Iowa offense is reliant on AA RB Greene who had 100+ rush yds in all 12 games. We are calling for Iowa
to win by 3 vs Spurrier and a tough defense.
FORECAST: IOWA BY 3
RATING: No Play

GATOR BOWL

1st meeting between the schools since the ‘81 Orange Bowl when CU beat NU 22-15 (+4) to win the
National Title (12-0 ssn). This will be CU’s 9th appearance in the Gator (4-4, more than any other school,
but 1st S/’00) & 31st overall (15-15). NU will be playing in their 45th bowl (22-22), but 1st here. CU finished
strong under new HC Swinney (4 wins in L/5), who replaced Bowden after he resigned. This is his first bowl
as a HC while its NU’s Pelini’s 2nd bowl as a HC, as he was in the interim in the ‘03 Alamo Bowl (won 17-3
over MSU, -3). CU plays all of its HG’s on grass while NU plays on turf (3-5 SU & 3-4-1 ATS on grass L/3Y).
Tigers have 7 Sr starters & 15 upperclassmen while the Huskers have 11 & 16. CU is 4-6 SU & 3-6 ATS at
a neutral site and has been a road fav just once TY (defeat UVA 13-3, -2’). NU has dropped both gms as
an AD (1-1 ATS). NU faced the tougher schedule (#33-49). CU faced 8 bowl caliber teams and was 3-5 SU
& 2-6 ATS, getting outgained 325-309. NU was 3-4 SU/ATS (-4 ppg & -5 ypg). CU traditionally travels well
& NU will do the same after sitting out LY during the holidays.
CU’s offense is led by RB’s James Davis and CJ Spiller (2nd Tm ACC RB), QB Cullen Harper and
WR Aaron Kelly (2nd Tm ACC). Davis needs just 112 rushing yds and 2 TD’s to become CU’s career
leader in both categories. He currently has 49 TD’s after a 3 TD performance vs SC in the reg ssn finale.
Spiller leads the ACC in all-purp yds and needs just 114 more to become CU’s career leader. Harper
ranked third in the ACC in pass eff completing 63.2%. Kelly is the ACC’s career leader in rec’s with 226
and needs just 23 receiving yds to become CU’s all-time leader. The O-line avg 6’4” 313 but has been
banged up most of the season and is avg just 3.6 ypc rush and 29 sks (#92 NCAA). In fact, Bobby
Hutchinson, who was not exp to play TY and just serve as a student coach, was reinstated because of
all the inj’s. Thomas Austin, however, has been solid playing C & OG and earned 2nd Tm ACC honors.
The Tigers have our #52 offense and #17 defense. Clemson’s DL also struggled at times this year all’g
3.8 ypc rush D and the team is ranked #106 in the NCAA with just 14 sacks (9 by DL). The Tigers did
lose DE Ricky Sapp for the year with a partially torn ACL vs UVA. CU, however, is #17 in the NCAA in
total D and #10th in pass D. The LB corps is led by Jr Kavell Connor (#1 tkls) and rFr Brandon Maye,
who was 2nd in the voting for ACC Def Rookie of the Year. The leader of the defense is 1st Tm ACC S
Michael Hamlin who has 18 career takeaways (int & FR) and needs just 1 more to become CU’s all-time
leader. CU has our #59 Sp Tms. Spiller was named 1st Tm ACC as a specialist and ranks #10 in the
NCAA in KR’s. CU avg’s 22.2 ypr on KR and 7.5 on PR and allows 20.2 on KR and 9.2 on PR.
NU has our #13 off avg 36 ppg (28+ in 11 gms) & 458 ypg (400+ in 9 gms). The numbers mirror LY’s
non-bowl squad proving that keeping OC Watson was a smart move. NU ret’d just 5 starters from LY, but
the entire RB corps was back & due to QB inj’s Ganz started the final 3 (466 ypg, 15-7 ratio). He picked up
were he left off, but with a new staff NU decided to keep the ball on the ground more (+30 ypg from ‘07).
RB Lucky sat out the ssn finale but Helu (1st career start) ran for a NU ssn high 166 yds & has 3 of the
Huskers’ 100 yd efforts (all in L/4 gms). WR Swift is just the 2nd NU player ever to top 900+ rec yds & with
Peterson makes up the B12’s most underrated WR tandem. The OL avg 6’5” 303 (2 Sr starters) paving the
way for 174 ypg (4.6) allowing 21 sks (5.3%). The OL will be the healthiest it’s been all ssn for the bowl.
The def returned 6 starters from a ‘07 squad that allowed 38 ppg & 477 ypg (worst in school history!). They
improved drastically TY allowing 29 ppg, just 362 ypg & have tallied 30 sks (T-#3 B12) to rank #51. The DL
avg 6’5” 281 (2 Sr starters), allowing 126 ypg (3.9) & have accounted for 80% of the sks. The DL leader is
2nd Tm B12 Suh (led B12 in tkls among DL). LB Glenn may miss the bowl (susp, CS), but Dillard should
be 100% anchoring the unit. NU has our #45 pass eff def allowing 236 ypg (59%) with a 17-10 ratio. The
ST’s rank #64. K Henery’s 57 yd gm winning FG over CU was the longest in Husker history.
HC Swinney certainly earned his new head coaching position by rallying the Tigers to a 4-1 SU/ATS
finish. The defense did their job by all’g a total of 24 pts the L3 games albeit vs the offenses of Duke, Virg
and S Carolina. The games in which Spiller and Davis were shut down were ugly as they scored 17 or
less in those 4 losses. The Huskers played up to their potential as they handled each of the opponents
they should have while all 4 losses were to current Top 20 teams. We like the matchup as Clemson has
yet to face a true passing offense while the Huskers bring a balanced rush/pass attack.
FORECAST: NEBRASKA BY 7
RATING: 3*

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

The only meeting between these 2 teams was a 34-27 win (line Even) by UGA in the 1989 Gator
Bowl. UGA is 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) vs Big Ten tms in bowls S/‘88 (7-2 all-time SU). MSU has only played
3 SEC tms S/’47 and all were in bowls (1-2 SU & ATS). Richt is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in bowls and LY
smoked undefeated #10 Hawaii 41-10 in the Sugar Bowl (-7’). Dantonio is 1-1 SU in bowls and 2-0
ATS losing SU but covering vs Matt Ryan’s BC team LY in the Champs Sports Bowl which is played
in the same stadium. MSU brought 25,000 fans to that contest which secured their bid for this bowl.
The Bulldogs own the SEC’s last win in the Capital One Bowl, a 34-27 OT win over Purdue following
the ‘03 ssn & UGA has won & covered their L/2 in this bowl. MSU won their only previous appearance
in this bowl, 37-34 (+2’) over Florida in ‘99 after Nick Saban left for LSU. That was the last time MSU
won 10 games, which has happened just twice in school history. UGA is on an 0-6 run as a favorite
including suffering an outright upset to GT in their home finale. The Spartans were 0-3 ATS as a dog
TY losing by an avg of 25 ppg to Cal, OSU & PSU. UGA has played 8 bowl teams with a 5-3 SU record
(2-5-1 ATS) and only outscored those tms by an avg of 34-31 but outgained bowl tms by an avg of
425-351. MSU is also 5-3 SU and 2-5-1 ATS vs bowl squads getting outscored 25-22 and outgained
350-347. UGA has only 5 seniors in the starting lineup and 10 upperclassmen. The Spartans have 7
seniors among their 14 upperclassmen starters.
MSU’s #44 offense rode its durable workhorse Javon Ringer. After sharing the load in ‘07, Doak Walker
finalist Ringer led the NCAA with 370 carries, 344 carries more than the team’s #2 rusher. The emphasis
on the ground game took the pressure off senior QB Brian Hoyer and a young receiving corps. Hoyer
struggled in LY’s bowl with 5 TO’s including 4 int. He finished with the 2nd lowest completion % among
BCS starting QB’s. His play did pick up down the stretch thanks to the emergence of WR Blair White
who had 20 rec for 427 yds in the L/4. The big OL (6’5” 312 avg) paved the way for Ringer’s success
and also allowed just 18 sks (5.0%). The Spartans have our #34 stop unit. MSU’s DL is led by DE Trevor
Anderson’s 8 sks. 1st Tm Big Ten sophomore Greg Jones led the LB corps. The secondary ranks #29
in our pass efficiency led by All-Big Ten SS Otis Wiley. They will now face a potential #1 DC at QB for
the 2nd bowl in a row as they held BC QB Ryan to 22-47 for 249 yds with a 3-3 ratio in his final college
game. The ST’s are #55 with K Swenson setting a school record by hitting 15 straight FG’s.
UGA started the season #1 but injuries really took a toll on this team. UGA QB Stafford leads the
SEC in passing averaging 267 ypg for our #11 offense. Highlight-reel RB Moreno is also the SEC leader
in rush ypg (111.5) and a Doak Walker finalist. UGA also boasts the SEC’s top 2 leaders in rec ypg,
true frosh WR Green (79.3) and senior WR Massaquoi (75.8) who finally fulfilled his massive potential
this year. The only purported weakness on offense lies in the OL which has been banged up all year
and lost 3 players (including 2 starters) to season ending injuries. Despite that, UGA averaged 154
rush ypg (4.7) and the OL only allowed 15 sks (#2 in SEC) in 369 pass atts (4.1%). The starting OL
consists of 3 frosh and 2 sophs and they average 6’5” 298. The Bulldogs #31 D also had significant
inj’s in ‘08 with future NFL DT Owens lost for the year in the opener and starting DE Battle and MLB
Ellerbe missing significant PT with inj’s. UGA ranked last in the SEC in sks (18) and struggled against
the run at the end of the yr allowing 226 (5.0) in the L/5 including 409 vs GT. With those inj’s, soph LB
Rennie Curran became the standout leading the tm in tkls (109) and tfl (9). UGA’s secondary finished
#63 in our pass D rankings allowing 188 ypg (56%) with a 17-10 ratio. UGA’s #20 ST unit is led by P
Mimbs with a super 37.6 net. True frosh K Walsh started out strong, but missed 6 of his L/10 FG’s.
Georgia could not live up to the early hype after being picked #1 in the summer. Attrition took its
toll as they struggled against the SEC leaders. While they finished the season on an 0-6 ATS run
as favorites, they have now rallied behind HC Richt’s cries to make this the 1st game towards next
season. Michigan St has nice numbers this season but check out what they’ve done against teams
with winning records. They’ve gone 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS vs Cal, Iowa, OSU, Wisky and Penn St. This
game will show just how much difference you can have between a pair of 9-3 squads.
FORECAST: GEORGIA BY 14
RATING: 2* GEORGIA

ROSE BOWL

Under Paterno the Lions are 4-3 SU & ATS vs the Trojans with the last contest coming in the 2000 Kickoff
Classic, a 29-5 USC (+2) win. The Trojans won the lone previous Rose Bowl matchup, 14-3 in ‘23. USC now
makes its record 7th straight BCS appearance and 34th Rose Bowl bid overall (23-10 SU). Carroll is 5-2
SU & ATS in bowls including 2-1 SU/ATS in the Grandaddy of Them All. Paterno is an NCAA best 23-10-1
SU & 21-9-1 ATS in bowls with this being just his 2nd trip to Pasadena. The Lions (-17) won the 1994 Rose
Bowl over Oregon, 38-20 which capped an undefeated season. The teams each played the Big Ten and P10
runnerups. PSU finished 2-0 SU & ATS winning by an avg of 29-10 and outgaining them 368-315. USC was
1-1 SU & ATS (329-276 yd edge) with their Sept 25th upset loss at Oreg St costing them a trip to the title
game. Under Carroll USC is 5-0 SU/ATS vs the Big Ten outscoring them by 22.6 ppg. USC is 5-1 SU/3-3
ATS vs bowl tms TY outgaining them 414-206 while PSU is 4-1 SU & ATS outgaining bowl foes 392-307.
USC is 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS on the road TY while PSU is 4-1 SU & ATS. The Trojans have 10 senior starters
(8 on D) among 17 upperclassmen while the Lions have 12 seniors and 17 upperclassmen. USC is 11-17-1
ATS as a DD fav while PSU has been a DD dog just once S/’04 (28-6 loss at OSU, +17).
Paterno vowed that the Lions would be back in the national title hunt again in ‘08. The Lions moved to the
Spread HD to best utilize athletic QB Daryll Clark. In the Lions’ 1st 6 gms Clark led the league in pass eff and
threw just 1 int. He suffered a concussion vs Ohio St but backup Pat Devlin led the Lions to the big win. Clark
struggled hitting 9-23 for 86 yds in the loss to Iowa in which they blew a 2H lead and their chance at the title
game. He ended the season hitting 16-26 for 341 yds & 4 TD’s vs MSU. Devlin opted to trans foll the season.
Clark’s top target was Deon Butler who broke Bobby Engram’s school receptions record. Evan Royster and
speedy Stephfon Green led the run game. The OL had 3 members named 1st Tm All-Big Ten led by AA C
AQ Shipley. They paved the way for a 5.3 ypg and allowed just 12 sks (3.5%). Despite suffering some major
personnel losses (2 DT’s kicked off in Aug & top LB Lee tore his ACL) the Lions still have our #7 defense. DE
Maurice Evans (12.5 sk in ‘07) was suspended early on and ended up losing his job to Aaron Maybin who
finished #4 in the NCAA with 12 sk. Navarro Bowman (1st Tm All-Big Ten) emerged as the leading tackler.
The secondary is #15 in pass eff allowing 168 ypg (54%) with a 6-16 ratio (2nd fewest TD passes allowed in
country to USC’s 4). The Lions are always strong on ST’s with our #7 ranking led by return specialist Derrick
Williams (3 combined ret TD’s in ‘08) and the Big Ten’s all-time leading scorer K Kevin Kelly.
QB Sanchez showed his toughness throughout 2008 starting all 12 gms despite dealing with a bad knee for
the 1H of the yr. He led the P10 with an outstanding pass eff mark of 159.1 earning 1st Tm All-Conf in his 1st
full yr as a starter. The Trojans run game was a 3-headed monster in ‘08 as Gable, McKnight & Johnson were all
given their share of the carries, to keep the opposition guessing. FB Havili also became a key part of the USC
off, especially in the blk’g & pass gm while earning praise wk in & wk out from Carroll. The WR position proved
to have the most depth TY as Turner had a steady year while Ark trans Williams stepped in as Sanchez’s #1
target on the year. The OL is loaded with young talent & size (6’5” 292) led by LG Jeff Byers who is the only Sr
starter up front. They paved the way for 206 ypg (5.3) while surrendering 17 sks (4.8%) on the ssn. Overall the
Trojan off finished with our #7 overall ranking on the ssn and will have newly named UW HC Sarkisian avail as
the OC here. USC finished with our #1 overall def as they dominated competition all’g just 206 ypg & 7.8 ppg
while giving up just 22 2H points the entire year! The DL avg 6’4” 271 all’g an NCAA best 83 ypg rush (2.6) led
by DT Moala & DE Matthews. The LB corps is arguably the best in the nation with Pac-10 DPOY Maualuga,
Cushing & Maiava. The secondary all’d 123 ypg (51.6%) with a 4-17 ratio ranking #1 in pass eff D. USC finished
with our #61 ST’s as K Buehler had hit 8 of 9 FG’s on the ssn prior to missing all 3 vs UCLA.
These 2 heavyweights both had National Championship aspirations throughout the season. Each also
faced the opposing conf’s runner-up as USC handled Ohio St and Penn St dominated Oregon St. The
Lions are excited to be here for their first Rose Bowl in 14 years while the Trojans were openly clamoring
to play a Big 12 or SEC opponent before they clinched their 4th straight Rose Bowl bid. USC has the high
profile players but this Penn State squad has not only won but dominated giving 5 teams their worst loss
of the season. USC meanwhile has struggled to score on the road against winning teams having been
shutout in the 1H at Oregon St 21-0 and only leading 10-3 at HT at Arizona. This doesn’t bode well for a
DD favorite against a Paterno team with unlimited prep time.
FORECAST: PENN ST (+) BY 3
RATING: 4* PENN ST

ORANGE BOWL

Orange Bowl’s 75th anniversary. The Bearcats & Hokies are the lowest-ranked BCS participants. This
will be the 9th meeting (4-4) between these 2 teams with Cincy going 5-2 ATS . They last met in ‘06 & UC
led 10-5 with a 164-106 yd edge 1H in the 29-13 (+27’) loss to #11 VT. This will be UC’s 3rd straight bowl
& 1st BCS appearance, they are 5-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in bowls. The Cats got their school record 11th win,
won its 1st BE Title & will play their first Jan 1st bowl game since the 1951 Sun Bowl. VT is making it’s
16th straight (5 BCS) postseason trip including it’s 2nd straight here under Beamer as he’s gone 6-9 SU &
ATS. VT will try to end their 4 gm losing streak in BCS gms (last win ‘95 Sugar Bowl) & will try to become
the 1st ACC team to win a BCS bowl S/#1 FSU won the National Title in the 2000 Sugar Bowl (#2 VT lost
46-29). This will be VT’s 3rd appearance in the Orange Bowl & they have gone 0-2 SU & ATS. With a win
here VT will have won 10 or more under Beamer in 8 of the L10Y. The Hokies have faced 8 bowl caliber
teams (BC 2X) going 5-4 SU & ATS, outscoring them 23-21 but were outgained 303-278. The Cats have
played 7 bowl caliber (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) teams being outscored 26-23 & outgained 350-332. Cincy is 3-5
SU & ATS on grass while VT plays it’s home games on it. Cincy is 9-3-1 ATS vs ranked teams the L3Y.
UC HC Kelly has won 3 Div II Champs at Grand Valley St, 1 MAC Title & is 2-0 (0-2 ATS) in bowls incl LY in
the Papajohns.com Bowl. In 2007, the Bearcats capped off the season with a 31-21 bowl win over S Miss giving
them 10 wins which equaled a school record & finished #17 in the AP Poll for the 1st time in school history.
The Cats took aim at the BE Title & BCS berth despite many forecasting them to finish in the lower half of the
BE standings. Kelly earned BE Coach of the Year honors. The ssn began with ‘07 QB Mauk denied a 6th year,
which left the Cats with ‘05-‘06 starter Dustin Grutza. He went down with broken leg vs OK which left UC with
Jr Tony Pike. Pike nearly left the program in the offseason due to lack of playing time. Pike took over but inj’d
his non-throwing arm & missed 2 games. In all, UC played 5 different QB’s. Pike returned & led Cincy to big
wins over WV, USF, UL & Pitt. He is avg 197 ypg (63%) with a 18-7 ratio. Cincy platooned Ramsey & Goebel
at RB and they combined for 1,211 (4.5) rush yds. The key to the offense is the WR corps, Goodman has 78
rec (12.5) and 7 TD’s & Gilyard 74 rec (15.1) & 10 TD’s. Goodman was inj’d in the finale (CS). The OL avg 6’4”
303 yds paving the way for 121 ypg (3.6) while all’g 30 sks (6.8%). The Cats have our #57 off & #21 def. UC
returned a veteran defense with 10 Sr starters back, most of whom played as Fr & Soph’s. The DL boasts 4 Sr’s
avg 6’3” 275 led by Byrd, Nelms & converted TE Barwin, who moved to DE, leads the BE in sacks. The LB corp
is led by 3 of the top 4 tklr’s in Manalac, Cornett & Smith. The secondary is loaded with talent in unanimous
All-BE CB Mickens who was inj’d for final 3 (CS), All-BE CB Smith & Ohio St transfer Underwood. UC has our
#33 pass eff def all’g 212 ypg (56%) with 18-16 ratio. UC has our #1 ST’s ranking led by AA Punter Huber’s
44.9 ypp & KR Gilyard who avg 28.0 ypr (#9 in NCAA) & earned BE ST’s POY honors.
VT has won 3 ACC Titles in their 5 years in the conf. QB Taylor was virtually flawless in wins over UVA
& BC in the ACC champ game. Taylor started the year thinking he was going to be redshirted & Glennon
was going to be the starter but after #17 VT while being upset by unranked EC 27-22, Taylor was inserted
into the starting role but he does split time w/Glennon. RFr RB Evans has the 10th-highest rushing total in
VT history. WR Coale is the only frosh on the team to start every game TY & is #1 in rec’s. The O-line avg
6’4” 310 paving the way for 3.7 ypc rush but surprisingly gave up 39 sks (14.6%). The OL is anchored by
2nd Tm ACC OG Render, HM ACC OG Marshman & HM ACC C Shuman. The Hokies have our #75 offense
& #18 defense. VT’s D-line avg 6’2” 274 & is led by 2nd Tm ACC DE’s Martin & Worilds. Worilds has 5.5
sks, 10 tfl & 2 FF in the L/5 gms & has done all that despite a separated left shoulder. VT ranks #19 in the
NCAA in rush D. Since 1999, the Hokies are 89-8 when outrushing their opp & 9-20 when outrushed. The
LB’s are the top 3 tklr’s on the team. The Hokies have our #39 pass D all’g 170 ypg & have 16 int. VT has
a dangerous secondary as Harris (1st Tm ACC) is one of the best CB’s in the nation (2 IR TD’s) & Virgil is
underrated. VT has our #86 spec tms. K Dustin Keys has been solid & earned HM ACC honors. VT is avg
20.9 on KR’s & 9.3 on PR’s while all’g 19.1 on KR’s & 12.7 on PR’s.
Cincinnati finished the season with 6 straight wins earning them the Big East Title & an Orange Bowl
berth. This is not only their 1st BCS game but their 1st traditional NY’s Day bowl. VT has lost 4 straight BCS
bowls which keeps them hungry & also unfazed by the pageantry surrounding this game. This is a situation
where one team will clearly come to play while being a learning experience for the other.
FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH BY 7
RATING: 2*

Pointwise

IOWA (8-4) vs SOUTH CAROLINA (7-5)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
11:00 AM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Iowa ............ 43.7 .. 30-13 .. 21-17 . 190- 98 .. 185- 191 .. + 6 . Iowa
So Caro ...... 48.1 .. 22-20 .. 19-16 ... 98-129 .. 219- 160 .. - 9 . by 9.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
It didn't take the Hawkeyes of Iowa long to return to the bowl scene. A year
ago, they posted a 6-6 record, good enough for "bowl eligibility", but still their
first non-winning season since '00, & a stay-at-home holiday, thanks mainly to
a season-ending 28-19 loss to WesternMich, as 2-TD chalks. And that just 3
years removed from their 3rd consecutive double-digit win campaign, when
Kirk Ferentz was acclaimed as one of the true elite coaches in the country. It
looked like more of the same this year, when Iowa saw a 3-0 start vs the dregs,
turn into 3-3, with hard fought losses to Pitt, N'Western, & MichSt, due mainly
to 9 TOs, including 5 vs the Wildcats. But they were to lose only once more, at
Illinois, on a 46-yd FG in the final 0:24. Over the entire course of the season,
only PennSt had an overland edge over Iowa, as the 'Hawks finished 9th in the
nation vs the run. And at year's end their stellar ball toter Greene finished 2nd
in the nation with 1,729 yds (6.2 ypr), & 17 TDs. QB Stanzi is steady, if not
spectacular, altho he did throw for 3 TDs in Iowa's season-ending 55-0 rout of
Minny (23-6 FD, 222-7 RY edges). The Gamecocks of South Carolina wound
up the season with a pair of disappointing losses, by a combined 87-20 score,
but still rank 11th in the nation in total "D" (tied with Iowa). Wins over bowlbound
NCSt, OleMiss, & Kentucky saw SC at just 108 RYpg, offensively, while its 5
losses had the 'Cocks at a 187-62 RYpg deficit. Ranking 110th in running, the
offensive onus therefore, is squarely on the QB duo of Smelley & Garcia, who
combined for just 56%, 2,496 yds, & a negative 19/20 TD/INT ratio. Spurrier in
a New Year's Day Florida bowl, but Iowa's overland supremacy the final edge.
PROPHECY: IOWA 27 - South Carolina 17 RATING: 2

CLEMSON (7-5) vs NEBRASKA (8-4)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Clemson ..... 46.1 .. 26-16 .. 18-16 .. 121-128 .. 219-167.. - 2 . Clemson
Nebraska .... 44.9 .. 36-29 .. 23-18 .. 164-128 .. 285-234.. - 10 . by 2.8 Pts
ANALYSIS
In 2004, the Cornhuskers of Nebraska failed to make it to a bowl game, which
marked their first miss, after 32 straight years of holiday season inclusion.
But a quick return, with Alamo Bowl & Cotton Bowl appearances in '05 & '06,
before missing again last year with a 5-7 log, despite a definite turnaround in
their offensive capability, finishing 9th in total "O". Right, a defense that checked
in at #112 overall, & #114 in scoring. This season, that "O" is again purring,
under new coach Pelini, ranking 12th in total, & 18th in scoring. QB Ganz is
the catalyst, throwing for 3,329 yds (69.2%), along with 23 TDs (10 INTs), but
the 'Huskers also move it overland, averaging 212 RYpg in their last 6 outings,
with Helu toting it at 6.7 ypr. Nebraska couldn't stay with the likes of Missouri
& Oklahoma, but 5 & 6 pt losses to VaTech & Kansas (OT) in their other 2
losses, were well within the respectable range. And they've reached the 30-pt
plateau in 13 of their last 15 tilts. The Tigers of Clemson were ranked #9 in the
preseason polls, but their much ballyhooed backfield of Harper, Davis, & Spiller
opened with a whimper, failing to top 17 pts in 4 of its first 5 lined games,
losing all 4, not only SU, by ATS, by 46½ pts. Note a 12-2 TO deficit in those
4 setbacks. Anyway, bye-bye to Tommy Bowden, & hello, to Dabo Swinney,
with vast improvement the result. Check the Tigers winning 4 of their final 5
games, due mainly to Harper, and a solid "D", as that overland game is at only
88 ypg over CU's final 7 games. The Tigers rank 15th in total "D", & 9th in
passing efficiency "D", which could spell trouble for Ganz & Co. Rematch of
the '81 Orange Bowl, which resulted in a National Title for Clemson. Huskers!
PROPHECY: NEBRASKA 30 - Clemson 27 RATING: 4

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (11-1) vs PENN STATE (11-1)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
4:30 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
USC ............ 41.9 .. 38- 8 .. 23-13 .. 207- 83 .. 246-123 .. + 5 . USC
Penn State . 43.4 .. 40-12 .. 23-15 .. 211- 96 .. 241-168 .. + 9 . by 5.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
What a match! The joke that is the BCS has now eliminated at least 4 squads
which should have had a shot at all the marbles, including the participants of
this classic, a pair of gridiron elites, who are rarely far from the pinnacle at
season's end. The Nittany Lions of Penn State, however, suffered through 4
losing seasons in 5 years ('00-'04), with cries of the game passing Paterno by
abounding. But Joe & Co snapped back with an 11-1 season in '06, missing a
perfect season on a final play loss to Michigan. Then a pair of 9-4 campaigns,
before hitting on all cylinders with this year's "HD" offense, which has been the
epitome of balance all season, resulting in a near-perfect record, losing only to
Iowa, by a single pt, on a last-second FG. QB Clark has been magnificent:
60%, 2,324 yds, 17 TDs, & only 4 INTs. Overland, Royster is at 6.5 ypr (1,202
yds & 12 TDs). Defensively? How about ranking 5th overall, 8th vs the run, &
3rd in scoring? One of their early season victims was OregonSt, which was
pummelled by the Lions, 45-14. So it must be noted that the Beavs represent
the only slipup for the Trojans of USC, in an otherwise perfect campaign. In
that one, Troy was on the short end of a 176-86 RY difference, allowing 186
RYs to Beaver RB Rodgers. But that loss served to jack the Trojans for the
remainder of the season, resulting in a 338-53 pt edge in their ensuing 9 tilts.
Statwise, USC has no peer, ranking 1st in total, passing, & scoring "D", as well
as 5th vs the run. Check holding a 55-11 FD edge in its last 2 games. Fifth
Rose Bowl for USC in the past 6 years, & Troy is 5-1 ATS in bowls since '02,
scoring 38, 28, 55, 38, 32, & 49 pts. Sanchez & Co continue that brilliance.
PROPHECY: SO CALIFORNIA 38 - Penn State 24 RATING: 4

GEORGIA (9-3) vs MICHIGAN STATE (9-3)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Georgia ...... 51.3 .. 32-26 .. 21-18 . 154-130 .. 280- 188 .. - 2 . Georgia
Mich St ....... 43.6 .. 26-22 .. 19-17 . 138-148 .. 214- 210 .. + 1 . by 7.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
As you know, on our opening issue each yr, we include a column, called "The
Polls", which is a consensus ranking of various leading gridiron magazines.
Well, the Bulldogs of Georgia ranked 2nd, by just a hair, to OhioSt, in that preseason
poll. Returning 17 starters from LY's 11-2 team, which finished with 7
straight wins, including a 41-10 blowout of Hawaii, in the Sugar Bowl, was
reason enough to elevate the 'Dawgs to such lofty heights. But injuries took
their toll, along with a schedule, which is 2nd to none, in terms of difficulty. At
season's end, Georgia ranked a respectable 27th in total "D", but check being
stung for 38 or more pts in 4 of their last 5 games, while allowing 252 RYpg in
those 4. Offensively, QB Stafford ranks 16th, nationally in passing, clicking at
61% (3,209 yds), with 22 TDs (9 INTs), throwing to the brilliant Massaquoi &
Green (combined 1,861 yds & 16 TDs). But RB Moreno is the heart-&-soul of
this "O" (1,338 yds, 16 TDs). Can the Spartans of Michigan State, who are
making their first January bowl in 9 years, corral that "O"? Well, MSU, which
is also making back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time in 11 years,
has had its moments, to be sure, mostly due to the exploits of RB Ringer, who
finished 4th, nationally, with 1,590 yds (19 TDs), & that includes 896 RYs in a
5-game stretch, to wind up a 6-game Spartan run, before being taken apart,
45-7, by OhioSt. And check a season-ending 49-18 loss at PennSt (557-322
yd deficit). QB Hoyer is barely above 50%, with just 9 TD passes & 8 picks.
So, it's Ringer, or nothing, apparently. We would love to grab the TD spot in
this one, but the 'Dawgs are a 10-4 ATS bowl play lately, covering by 23 in '07.
PROPHECY: GEORGIA 38 - Michigan State 20 RATING: 2

CINCINNATI (11-2) vs VIRGINIA TECH (9-4)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
8:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Cincinnati ... 43.4 .. 27-20 .. 20-17 . 121-124 .. 254- 211 .. - 5 . Va Tech
Va Tech ....... 44.6 .. 22-18 .. 17-14 . 170-107 .. 128- 170 .. +11 . by 3.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
Second straight trip to this bowl for the Hokies of Virginia Tech, which makes
them the first back-to-back Orange Bowl participants since Nebraska in '96 &
'97. And try 16 consecutive bowl campaigns for Frank Beamer's minions. But
the Gobblers have dropped 4 straight BCS games, with the ACC losing its last
8 BCS skirmishes. This year's Tech squad resembles '07's team, in relying on
its "D" to carry the day. Last year, the Hokies ranked 5th, 2nd, 5th in rushing,
total, scoring "D", recording 43 sacks, & 21 interceptions. This season, Tech
ranks 19th, 7th, 10th, in those columns, respectively, with 31 sacks & 16 picks.
So, as you can see, the Hokies are still a major defensive force, altho down a
bit from a year ago. Offensively, Tech checks in at #107, compared to an 85th
ranking in '07. So again, down a bit. The QBing duo of Taylor & Glennon has
combined for a meager 1,639 yds & just 5 TDs, with 11 INTs. But the Hokies
have outrushed 8 of their last 10 foes, including a 285 yd edge over Maryland,
& a 150-45 edge over BostonCollege, in the ACC title game. Oh, & check yet
another outstanding TO year (+11). For the Bearcats of Cincinnati, who are
participating in their 7th bowl in the last 9 years, their standing in that category
is a far cry from '07, when they ranked 6th in the country with a +16 TO edge.
As we constantly remind our subscribers, Cincy has been a steady force: only
39 pts from a 33-3 ATS run, with a pair of those near misses coming by 4 & ½
pt in bowl games, the past 2 years. QB Pike, with 2,168 yds (63%, 18 TDs, 7
INTs) leads an adequate, if not spectacular "O". The Bearcats' only stumbles
came vs mighty Oklahoma, & in a 6 TO loss to UConn. Cincy, by a whisker.
PROPHECY: CINCINNATI 20 - Virginia Tech 14 RATING: 6

NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS

OUTBACK BOWL

This is a battle of two solid defenses, but Iowa has the off edge over Spurrier’s team that has
struggled with inconsistent QBs and no running game due to poor OL play. PP calls for Iowa to win
by 7 (line 3’) with the ydg forecast close. We agree with PP as Iowa fi nished the ssn with 3 str wins
including upsetting Penn St while SC lost their L/2 and is lucky to be playing on NY’s Day.
4* IOWA 21 SOUTH CAROLINA 14

GATOR BOWL

Surprisingly, Clemson is favored by 2’ as two of their 7 wins are over FCS tms while Neb has 8 wins
over FBS teams. PP says it’s a tossup but gives NU a 410-315 yd edge, so we’ll take the pts here.
4* NEBRASKA (+) 27 CLEMSON 27

ROSE BOWL

PSU is excited to be playing in their 1st Rose Bowl in 14 yrs while USC made it known that they
preferred to play an SEC or Big 12 team in another BCS game TY instead of their 4th straight Rose
Bowl appearance. PP calls for USC to win by 9 (line 10), and we like Penn St in this one.
2* PENN STATE (+) 20 USC 29

Logical Approach

Outback Bowl - Tampa, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009

Iowa had a strong start to the season (3-0) and a strong finish (5-1) surrounding a 3 game mis season losing streak. South Carolina's mid season 4 game win streak was preceded by a 1-2 start and a 2-3 finish. In finishing 5-1 Iowa knocked off 3 Bowl teams (all from their Big 10 conference) including that 24-23 upset win over then 9-0 Penn State. All 4 of their losses were by 5 points or less and they did not have to face this season's other Big 10 power, Ohio State. Carolina's most notable win was their 34-0 opening game win over North Carolina State in which they broke open the game in the second half and ended up holding the Wolfpack to just 138 total yards of offense. Their other win of note was a mid season road win at Ole Miss, 31-24. The teams had almost even defensive stats with Iowa better against the rush and Carolina better against the pass. Iowa does show up statistically better in turnovers as Carolina averaged losing 2.8 per game (# 117) while Iowa averaged recovering 2.2 per game (# 18). Iowa arguably played a weaker schedule although the SEC overall was not as strong this season as in the past few seasons. Still, Iowa had a net scoring differential of plus 17 points per game while Carolina was plus just 1.5. The teams combined to allow an average of just 33.4 points per game and neither offense was explosive, suggestive of a low scoring game here, as the Total suggests. Iowa held 5 foes to under 10 points and no team scored more than 27 against the Hawkeyes. Although Carolina gave up 56 points to Florida and 31 to Clemson in its final two games, no other team scored more than 24 against the Gamecocks. Each team held 7 foes to under 300 yards of total offense. South Carolina misses a Bowl last season but was 1-1 the prior 2 seasons, both time as favorites, in what were their first Bowl appearances in 4 seasons. Iowa also missed a Bowl last season after 6 straight Bowl trips in which they were 3-3 3-1 S/U and 4-2 ATS - although they were underdogs in all 6 Bowls. Again, the pedigree of SEC vs Big 10 counts for something and although Iowa had the stronger finish to the season South Carolina faced a better class of foe. Both teams are well coached but getting the faster SEC team as an underdog is enough to tilt the scales. South Carolina upsets Iowa, 20-17, making

SOUTH CAROLINA a 3 Star Selection
UNDER a 4 Star Selection .

Gator Bowl - Jacksonville, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009

To 'old timers' this matchup will evoke memories of 1981 when Clemson defeated Nebraska in the Orange Bowl to win the National Title and cap a 12-0 season. Now, a generation later, much less is at stake although both get to play on New Year's Day albeit in a lesser Bowl. Whereas Nebraska was the more dominant program when these teams met back then, today Clemson has had the more recent success and the Tigers are in their fourth straight Bowl and ninth in 10 years. Nebraska seemingly hit bottom last season, missing a Bowl for the second time in 4 seasons after having gone to a Bowl for 35 straight seasons between 1969 and 2003. Nebraska made a coaching change after last season, bringing in defensive minded Bo Pelini. After starting 3-0 the 'Huskers lost 3 straight before finishing on a 5-1 run that included only one win over a Bowl bound team (Kansas). Overall Nebraska was 2-4 against fellow Bowler. Clemson made a mid season coaching change after failing to live up to pre season expectations that had Clemson a BCS Title contender. But the Tigers lost badly to Alabama to start the season only to win 3 straight before losing 3 in a row to stand 3-4. Clemson then won 4 of 5 to close the season and was 3-5 against Bowl bound teams. Nebraska was decidedly the better team on offense while Clemson holds a solid edge in the defensive stats although the teams were almost even defending the run. Nebraska had much worse pass defense stats but that would figure in the highly pass effective Big 12. But even when adjusting for the quality of offenses faced Clemson's pass defense was extraordinary, allowing just 5.1 yards per pass attempt (second only to USC) and 9.1 yards per attempt (again, second only to USC). That suggests Nebraska will have to show they can run the ball in order to set up their more potent pass attack. Nebraska posted impressive offensive stats down the stretch but did so against much weaker defenses than they will encounter here. The expectation is that Clemson's defense - the best unit on the field - will succeed in dictating game flow. Clemson gets the win 27-21, making
CLEMSON a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .

Capital One Bowl - Orlando, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009

By many accounts Georgia was the top team in the nation beginning this season as they returned a lot of strength from the team that closed the 2007 season very impressively. But after starting 4-0 the Bulldogs hosted also unbeaten Alabama and were thrashed 41-30 in a game Georgia trailed 31-0 at the half. Hopes of a BCS title were dashed for good a month later when they were routed by Florida 49-10. Georgia's third and final loss of the season came in the finale when they let a halftime lead slip away en route to a 45-42 loss to Georgia Tech. Georgia's only win of note was a 52-38 road win at LSU in mid season. Overall Georgia won 5 of 8 teams headed to Bowls. Michigan State also lost just 3 games but two of the losses were blowout losses to powers Ohio State (45-7) and Penn State (49-18). The other loss was a season opening loss at Bowl bound Cal. MSU also had 5 wins against other Bowl teams. Georgia has the better overall stats and plays in the much tougher SEC. Their primary and secondary stats are better virtually across the board and they are the more talented team. They are 8-2 in Bowls over the past decade including 4-3 ATS when favored. Michigan State is 4-3 ATS in Bowls over the past decade, winning twice, and were underdogs all 4 times. This may be an attractive matchup based on their identical 9-3 records but both teams have flaws, especially when stepping up in class. Here, MSU is stepping up in class while Georgia's motivation is questioned given their expectation back in August. In the final analysis Georgia's slight edge at RB and major edge at QB, combined with the better overall defense and team speed, makes them the call. Georgia wins 34-24, making
GEORGIA a 2 Star Selection
OVER a 2 Star Selection .

Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA - Thursday, January 1, 2009

There's much to like about both of these perennial powers who take identical 11-1 records into the Granddaddy of all Bowl games. USC's lone loss came at Oregon State27-21, ironically the same team that was two weeks earlier crushed at Penn State 45-14. Penn State's lone loss was a late 24-23 loss at Iowa. Both teams also played and defeated Ohio State. USC routed the Buckeyes early in the season 35-3 at home, outgaining OSU 348-207. Penn State won at Ohio State 13-6, but were slightly outgained 287 to 281. The perception is that Penn State had the far better offense than USC but the teams were actually separated by just 1 yard in total offense per game although Penn State did average 3 more points on the scoreboard. USC does have the better defensive stats, allowing 58 ypg and nearly 5 points per game less than the Nittany Lions. Both defenses excelled against the rush. USC held 10 of 12 foes to 10 points or less and tossed 3 shutouts. Penn State held 8 of 12 foes to 14 points or less, with 5 of the 8 limited to single digits. USC played the more demanding non-conference schedule with wins over Virginia, Ohio State and Notre Dame while Penn State defeated Coastal Carolina, Temple, Syracuse in addition to the aforementioned Oregon State. Both teams have well balanced offenses with almost identical rushing and passing per game averages. On a per play basis, defensively, USC has significant edges, allowing 0.3 yards less per rush, (2.6 vs 2.9), 1.2 yards less per pass attempt (4.3 vs 5.5) and nearly 2 yards less per pass completion (8.3 vs 10.2). Those defensive edges combined with the fact that after long layoffs its generally tougher for offenses to find their rhythms rather than defenses suggest the Penn State should find it tough to gain chunks of yardage against the Trojans. This is virtually a home game for USC and they are making a fourth straight appearance in the Rose Bowl, winning each of the past 2 years. They also have a stellar record under coach Pete Carroll against Big 10 foes. While taking the generous points with Penn State looks appealing USC's team speed, better defense and home site provided too many compelling reasons for playing the favorite. While Penn State should keep the game close for awhile, USC's superior talent ultimately enables the Trojans to pull away. USC wins 28-13, making

USC a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .

Orange Bowl - Miami, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009

The champions of the two weakest BCS conferences do battle in the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech is back for a second straight year, losing last season 24-21 to Kansas, a controversial pick over Big 12 rival Missouri which had solidly defeated the Jayhawks in the regular season finale. Tech has not fared well in Bowls of late, losing in 4 of the past 5 seasons. This appearance, however, makes it 16 straight seasons of Bowling for Tech under coach Frank Beamer. Cincinnati is in a Bowl for a third straight season (and seventh in 9 seasons). Cincy has won their last 3 Bowl games. The Bearcats also won their final 6 games this season. Tech ended the season with 3 straight wins (including the ACC Title game) after a mid to late season swoon that saw them lose 3 of 4. Cincy had a decided edge on offense although that edge was largely in the passing game where they averaged 254 ypg, nearly double that of VT. Tech had the stronger running game, rushing for 168 ypg to just 121 for Cincy. Virginia Tech did have a solid edge on defense, allowing just 277 ypg (# 7) but Cincy's defense was not that far behind (316 ypg, # 26). Both teams allowed just over 100 ypg on the ground. In non conference play both teams visited Big 12 venues with Tech winning 35-20 at Nebraska while Cincy was blown out at Oklahoma, 52-26, allowing almost 600 yards to the Sooners. Both teams will be motivated. Tech wants redemption from last season's close loss here while Cincy seeks to continue their late season momentum by winning their first ever BCS game. Tech has always been noted for their defense and special teams but Cincy has also performed well in both areas. Tech arguably played the more difficult overall schedule facing 9 teams that are in Bowl games (Cincy faced 6) but there's really not much in the way of significant edges to be overly enthused about either side in this game. It appears very evenly matched. Cincinnati seems the more talented team and has gotten more from the QB position. For that reason the preference is to go with the short chalk and call for a Bearcat win. But it should be close. Cincinnati wins 24-20, making

CINCINNATI a 1 Star Selection
OVER a 1 Star Selection