New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
Oddsmakers currently have the Bears listed as 3-point favorites versus the Saints, while the game's total is sitting at 45.
The Saints defeated Atlanta 29-25 as a 3-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (51.5).
Pierre Thomas rushed for 102 yards and a touchdowns and he also caught a TD pass for New Orleans, while Drew Brees passed for 230 yards with two touchdowns
The Bears defeated Jacksonville 23-10 as a 6.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (40).
Kyle Orton passed for 219 yards with a pair of touchdown passes and an interception for Chicago, while Greg Olsen caught three passes for 52 yards with a touchdown in the win.
Team records:
New Orleans: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS
Chicago: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS
New Orleans most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Before playing Detroit are 3-6
Chicago most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 2-8
When playing outside the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 13 of New Orleans's last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Next up:
New Orleans at Detroit, Sunday, December 21
Chicago home to Green Bay, Monday, December 22
NEW ORLEANS (7 - 6) at CHICAGO (7 - 6)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
New Orleans at Chicago
New Orleans: 6-0 Over in December
Chicago: 16-4 Over as home favorite
NEW ORLEANS vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
New Orleans is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Thursday's NFL Capsule
OPENING LINE - Bears by 3.
RECORD VS. SPREAD - New Orleans 9-4-0; Chicago 6-6-1.
SERIES RECORD - Bears lead 12-11.
LAST MEETING - Bears 33, Saints 25, Dec. 30, 2007
LAST WEEK - Saints beat Falcons 29-25; Bears beat Jaguars 23-10.
SAINTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (1), RUSH (27), PASS (1)
SAINTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (21), RUSH (20), PASS (26)
BEARS OFFENSE - OVERALL (24), RUSH (15), PASS (21)
BEARS DEFENSE - OVERALL (17), RUSH (6), PASS (28)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - After dropping 2006 NFC championship game and seeing their playoff hopes evaporate in loss on final day last season, Saints hope to end streak of key defeats at Soldier Field. ... While QB Drew Brees threw for 230 yards and two TDs on Sunday, RB Pierre Thomas delivered his most important performance. A Chicago native and second-year pro from Illinois, he ran for 102 yards and had two touchdowns, including go-ahead score he set up with a 88-yard kickoff return. ... With league-leading 4,100 yards passing, Brees is on pace to finish with 5,046 and is challenging Dan Marino's record 5,084 in 1984. ... Saints are 6-1 at home, including win over San Diego in London, but just 1-5 on road. ... Only Tennessee and Denver (8) have allowed fewer sacks than New Orleans (10). ... Chicago WR-KR Devin Hester still is looking for his first TD return. His last one? A 64-yard punt runback against New Orleans. He also had 55-yard TD catch in that game. ... With his 69 yards rushing and 37 receiving last week, RB Matt Forte now has 1,476 yards from scrimmage - second in league to Minnesota's Adrian Peterson (1,522) and more than any other Bears rookie. Previous club record was Gale Sayers' 1,374 in 1965. Only three Bears have delivered 1,500 in a season: Walter Payton (10 times), Neal Anderson (twice) and Sayers (once). ... With 53 receptions, Forte needs four to break single-season record for Bears running back (Thomas Jones in 2004) and rookie (Mike Ditka in 1961). ... With six touchdowns rushing and four through air, Forte is one of only two players this season with at least four TD runs and four TD catches; other is Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook. ... Lance Briggs is tied for second among NFL linebackers with five takeaways (a career-high three interceptions, two fumble recoveries). ... Brad Maynard booted four of his six punts last week inside the 20, including two inside the 10.
New Orleans at Chicago
By Brad Young
December football is meant to be played in poor conditions between teams fighting for the playoffs. That’s exactly what we have at Chicago’s Soldier Field between a pair of 7-6 squads trying to advance to the postseason.
The last time New Orleans and Chicago collided in the playoffs was two years ago when the Bears won that NFC Championship Game to advance to Super Bowl XLII. Both teams missed the postseason last year, and the loser of this contest has a very bleak outlook.
New Orleans (7-6 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) is actually in last place in the ultra competitive NFC South standings, struggling to a 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS road record. The Saints will have to win at least two of their final three games to have any shot at making the postseason.
Chicago (7-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) trails Minnesota by just one game in the NFC North standings, and still has a realistic shot of capturing the division. The Bears maintain a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS home record, with the ‘over’ going 4-2.
Thursday’s forecast for Chicago, Illinois is calling for a high of 31 degrees and a low of 21, with a 30 percent chance of flurries and winds around 13 miles per hour.
Caesars Palace installed Chicago as a three-point home ‘chalk’ over New Orleans, with the total set at 45. The line has remained consistent through the week, but the total opened at 44. NFL Network will provide coverage of Thursday Night Football beginning at 8:15 p.m. ET.
New Orleans improved to 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS the past four games after outlasting NFC South rival Atlanta last weekend as a three-point home favorite, 29-25. The combined 54 points eclipsed the 51 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 4-1-1 the previous six games.
The Saints were trailing before outscoring the Falcons in the fourth quarter, 13-8. New Orleans finished the contest with advantages in first downs (24-22), rushing yards (184-99) and turnovers forced (1-0).
Signal caller Drew Brees completed 18-of-32 passes for 230 yards with two touchdowns, connecting with wideout Devery Henderson three times for 72 yards. Running back Pierre Thomas stepped up with 16 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown in the victory.
Chicago has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses the past four outings after upending Jacksonville last weekend as a 6 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 23-10. The combined 33 points failed to topple the 40-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 4-1 the previous five contests.
The Bears cruised after jumping out to a 20-3 halftime lead, finishing the game with advantages in first downs (16-14) and passing yards (210-159). Quarterback Kyle Orton was 20-of-34 passing for 219 yards passing for two touchdowns and an interception. Matt Forte paced the ground game with 21 carries for 69 yards, while wideout Devin Hester caught five passes for 80 yards.
Chicago is 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS the previous three encounters with New Orleans after prevailing last season as a home ‘pick,’ 33-25. The combined 58 points eclipsed the 42-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to cash the last three games in this series.
The Bears and Saints met on this field during the 2006-07 postseason, with Chicago rolling in the NFC Championship Game as a three-point home favorite, 39-14. The combined 53 points in that matchup toppled the 43-point closing total.
New Orleans cornerback Randall Gay (concussion) is ‘questionable’ against the Bears, while offensive tackle Jammal Brown (ankle) is expected to miss this matchup.
Chicago fullback Jason McKie (quad), running back Garrett Wolfe (hamstring) and wide receiver Marty Booker (leg) are ‘doubtful’ versus the Saints, while tight end Desmond Clark (undisclosed) is ‘questionable.’
New Orleans travels to Detroit next weekend before wrapping up the regular season with a home game against Carolina. Chicago hosts NFC North rival Green Bay next weekend before traveling to Houston.
vegasinsider.com
New Orleans (7-6, 9-4 ATS) at Chicago (7-6, 6-6-1 ATS)
The surging Saints travel to Soldier Field for the third time in 13 months to face the Bears, with both teams trying to stay alive in the NFC playoff chase.
New Orleans topped Atlanta 29-25 as a three-point home chalk Sunday for their fourth straight spread-cover (3-1 SU). QB Drew Brees (18 of 32, 230 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense and got some rare help from his running game, which churned out 184 yards. RBs Pierre Thomas (16 carries, 102 yards, 1 TD) and Reggie Bush (10 carries, 80 yards) led the way, and both teams put up 414 total yards.
Chicago beat Jacksonville 23-10 as a 6½-point home favorite Sunday, stemming a 1-3 SU and 1-4 ATS skid. QB Kyle Orton (20 of 34, 219 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) helped the Bears to a 20-3 halftime lead, and his INT served as Chicago’s lone turnover. Meanwhile, the Bears defense converted picked off the Jaguars’ on their first drive and the offense turned it into an Orton-to-Desmond Clark TD pass.
The SU winner is now 24-2-1 ATS in the Bears’ last 27 starts (11-1-1 ATS this season).
Chicago has defeated New Orleans three straight times (2-0-1 ATS), including a 33-25 victory as a one-point home underdog in last year’s regular-season finale and a 39-14 win as a 2½-point home in the NFC Championship Game in January 2007. The underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.
New Orleans features the NFL’s top offense, averaging 405.9 ypg, and the Saints are tied for second in scoring at 366 points (28.2 ppg). Chicago is 24th in total offense (304 per game) and 16th scoring offense (23.4 ppg). Both defenses tend to give up yards and points, with New Orleans allowing 25.1 points and 344.1 yards per game, and the Bears yielding 21.4 points and 325.4 ypg.
The Saints are on ATS surges of 6-2 in non-division games and 4-1 on grass, but they also carry negative ATS trends of 0-5 as a road pup of three points or less and 2-5 following a SU win. The Bears have cashed in their last four December contests but are otherwise on ATS declines of 0-4 after a SU win, 4-9 as a home chalk, 4-9-1 after a spread-cover and 4-9-1 against winning teams.
The over for New Orleans is on several hot streaks, including 13-4-1 overall, 7-0 in December, 10-2 after a SU win, 10-2-1 after a spread-cover and 19-7-1 against NFC foes. Likewise, the over for Chicago is on stretches of 19-7 at home, 16-5 with the Bears a home favorite and 27-11-1 inside the conference. Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six clashes overall between these rivals and 4-0 in the last four meetings at Solider Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Gametimepicks.com
Where the action is: Thursday Night Football
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Line/Total: We opened this Thursday night game Bears -3 with a total of 45 points. We’ve seen some solid two way action on the game. We won’t be moving off the number of three, but we’ll adjust the money attached to the spread. As for the total, the public is betting it over and I suspect we’ll close higher than 45 points. A lot depends on the weather and the wind in Chicago.
Matchup of the game: QB Drew Brees vs. the Chicago elements. Brees is leading the NFL in passing yards and is the MVP of this Saints team, but this is Chicago in December and at night. It won’t be ideal conditions for the Pro Bowl quarterback.
Key Injuries
Saints - OT Jammal Brown expected to miss. CB Randall Gay is questionable.
Bears - FB Jason McKie, RB Garrett Wolfe and WR Marty Booker all listed doubtful. TE Desmond Clark is questionable. DT Dusty Dvoracekout for the year.
Weather: Game time temperature in the low 20s with some wind.
Thursday Night NFL Preview: New Orleans at Chicago
by Matt Severance
Thursday night's New Orleans-Chicago game has the look of a do-or-die for both teams, but in reality only the Bears have a realistic chance at the playoffs, and that's a long shot at best.
Chicago is a three-point favorite on Bodog for the game at chilly Solder Field.
The Saints (7-6) are pretty much doomed to miss the postseason even if they win out. That's because their NFC South Division is loaded, and New Orleans has no shot to get in that way. The Saints right now are last among the 11 teams with a winning record in terms of playoff position. Folks, it's just not going to happen this year.
Chicago has the same record as New Orleans but a slightly better chance because it is a game behind NFC North leader Minnesota. The problem for the Bears is that the Vikings hold the tiebreaker over them, so that's really a two-game lead with three to play. Still, by winning out Chicago would have a chance, as Minnesota must face two playoff locks in Arizona and the Giants and one playoff possibility in the Falcons.
As you would expect, it will be cold Thursday in the Windy City, with temps expected in the 20s and a windchill in the low teens. That could bode well against the warm-weather Saints.
"We're in Chicago in December," Bears coach Lovie Smith said. "It's always cold here. We realize that. We want everyone else coming in to know that; New Orleans, too. It should be a little bit colder hopefully Thursday night. We play our best football when it's like that."
The over/under at Bodog for the game is 45.
The Saints have not fared well in the winter conditions in Chicago in the past two years. The Bears won last season's regular-season finale, 33-25, and beat the Saints in the 2006-07 NFC Championship Game, 39-14. And it was cold both times. The Saints actually outgained the Bears in those past two trips to Soldier Field, but New Orleans turned over the ball seven times and Saints QBs were sacked six times.
"They came here twice and we beat them, so I'm going to say we're probably going to have the advantage," said Bears cornerback Danieal Manning.
Saints coach Sean Payton says his club isn't focusing on the weather.
"The trick is to deal with the mental part as much as anything," Payton said. "Just something we're going to have to deal with and be able to get through and handle. We've done it in the past and played in cold weather and played good games."
New Orleans is just 1-5 on the road this year, however.
With Reggie Bush back to full strength and Pierre Thomas taking over for Deuce McAllister, New Orleans looked good in beating Atlanta last week (in the 72 degree comfort of a dome). The Saints rushed for 184 yards, their best performance on the ground in nearly two years.
Thomas has come out of nowhere to rush for 311 yards and four touchdowns in his last four games, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. When the Saints run the ball 30 or more times during Payton's tenure, they are 14-0.
Chicago's run defense is a strength, however, and the pass defense has come on of late, holding opponents to 208.0 yards per game. Drew Brees leads the No. 1 passing offense, but his club has lost both games this year when he threw for more than 400 yards, so don't look for Chicago to deviate from its run-stopping emphasis. Brees is coming off his second-lowest output of the season, 230 yards Sunday in the 29-25 victory over Atlanta, but that's a good thing because the Saints were so balanced offensively last week.
As for the Bears, they want to run the ball with Louisiana native Matt Forte, who might be the Rookie of the Year if Matt Ryan wasn't around. Forte ranks second in the NFL this season with 1,476 yards from scrimmage (1,081 rushing and 395 receiving), behind only Minnesota's Adrian Peterson. He is just the seventh NFL rookie to surpass 1,000 rushing yards and 50 receptions. Amazingly, he has fumbled just once this season.
Kyle Orton will be asked to not make mistakes and complete a few third-down passes. Last week in the cold against the Jaguars, he was 20-of-34 with 219 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. The Bears would take those numbers pretty much every time, and it was his best game since suffering a sprained ankle last month. Orton, incidentally, attended Purdue just like his opposing QB mainly because of Brees' advice.
Docsports.com